Bad ‘Good News’ Batters Big-Tech, Bitcoin, Black-Gold, & Bonds

Bad ‘Good News’ Batters Big-Tech, Bitcoin, Black-Gold, & Bonds

Hotter than expected German inflation and sliding European economic confidence combined with a double whammy of hot JOLTS data and better than expected consumer sentiment was just enough good news to be more bad news for bulls who continue to hope for a Jay Powell “just kidding” moment. Stocks also suffered from geopolitical risk premium pain too as Taiwan fired live ammo at a Chinese drone for the first time.

Instead, rate-hike expectations extended recent hawkish gains today, pushing up to their highest since the cycle began…

…suggesting US equities have plenty of downside before this ‘pain’ is over…

Source: Bloomberg

Overnight gains, triggered at the European market open, were erased ahead of the open as Taiwan-China news hit and then things escalated quickly on the back of the ‘good news’ from JOLTS and Conference Board which is just more bad news for the bulls as this offered no ‘outs’ for The Fed… Small Caps were the ugliest horse in the glue factory, closely followed by Nasdaq…

Bear in mind that liquidity is abysmal with the lowest volume days of the year…

US equities have given back more than half of their gains off the mid-June lows…

The Nasdaq is down 10% from the mid-August highs now…

And Nasdaq is down over 6% from the start of Powell’s speech…

All the US majors broke below critical technical support levels today (S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all below their 50DMA, and Russell 2000 below its 100DMA)…

The credit markets are beginning to flash red again as ‘triple-hooks’ CCC debt spreads breach 1000bps once again

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with most of the curve higher in yields but the long-end managing modest gains (2Y +4bps, 30Y -2bps). Since Powell’s speech, the long-bond yield is down over 2bps, while the belly is underporfoming (5Y +12bps)

Source: Bloomberg

US 2Y Yields jumped to their highest since Nov 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) flattened notably, pushing back to its most inverted since early August…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar managed to hold on to modest gains today after some weakness during Europe’s early hours…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos tanked with Bitcoin breaking bad, back below $20,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index had one of its worst days of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold tumbled, erasing yesterday’s gains…

Crude prices crashed as Iraq confirmed no output impacts from its internal conflicts but chatter is that the futures market was very thing today, exaggerating the move dramatically…

Finally, the so-called “Rule of 20” – which combines CPI with the S&P’s P/E ratio – suggests the market has a lot further to fall (or CPI does) before any sense of normality resumes…

Source: Bloomberg

Pain is Coming!

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/30/2022 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/HhDmQJL Tyler Durden

Kyle Bass: China Will Invade Taiwan In The Next 1-2 Years

Kyle Bass: China Will Invade Taiwan In The Next 1-2 Years

Authored by Adam Taggart via Welathion.com,

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass issues a fire warning to Western investors with equity stake in Chinese companies or government bonds. The warning is derived from both moral and self-interest perspectives.

Morally, Bass argues in a recent interview with Wealthion, investing in China helps to prop up one of the most flagrant abusers of basic human rights in our time. He also argues that divesting from China is in every foreigner’s self-interest as he sees the prospect of an economic war between the U.S. and China to be quite probable.

As Bass puts it, “I think it’s inevitable that they [China] move on Tawain… That changes the whole ballgame for people that have money invested in Chinese companies. They need to get it out right now.”

On the topic of removing China from SWIFT, Bass says that “behind the scenes we are talking about it right now.” Bass sits on an advisory board to the Department of Defense and is privy to these sorts of national security discussion.

The implications of such a geopolitical event would be massive.

It might mean China cutting on trade with the U.S. or a flash offloading of China’s Treasury Bond reserves, valued at over one trillion dollars.

Bass points out that China manufactures 95% of the pharmaceuticals we use here in the States.

To emphasize the gravity of this, Bass reminds listeners of early 2021, when the Biden administration attempted to launch an investigation into the origins of COVID. In response, the CCP threatened to withhold pharmaceutical exports.

The investigation promptly ended.

China, on the other hand, has several weak points of its own. It is far more entwined with the U.S. financial system and therefore would likely take a bigger hit from sanctions than Russia has experienced. Then again, the Ruble’s rapid rebound was shocking to most mainstream economists.

On top of that, China’s real estate market, which accounts for roughly 40% of its GDP, is showing signs of instability, leaving speculators at the whims of the ruling party. The demographics of the country have been in decline for many years now, and a massive surge in retirees without a commensurate increase in laborers has the potential to destabilize the entire economy.

Overall, Bass thinks we are entering a period of increasing volatility, especially for the month of September. He advises caution to investors and suggests that now is likely not the time to be invested in any markets. When stocks do become cheap, it’s his belief that the U.S. market will remain dominant; there are simply too many structural issues in both China and Europe.

Tune in to his full interview below to learn about specific investments Bass is making:

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/30/2022 – 15:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/7jZoWF4 Tyler Durden

US Navy Helicopter Thwarts Iranian Attempt To Capture High Tech Sea Drone

US Navy Helicopter Thwarts Iranian Attempt To Capture High Tech Sea Drone

The US Navy has announced a high seas incident wherein it foiled an attempt by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC Navy) to capture an unmanned surface vessel as it traversed an area of the Persian Gulf.

The US military sea drone was being operated by America’s 5th fleet, and upon the intervention of US Navy assets – including a helicopter which deployed in response – the Iranians let the drone go.

Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a 5th Fleet spokesman, in a statement identified that the drone in question is a Saildrone Explorer, which is a high tech, relatively large drone used for gathering an array of data, including mapping the ocean’s floor.

According to his statement released in an AP/Washington Post report

Hawkins said the Guard vessel was towing the drone behind it as a U.S. Navy ship and helicopter approached it. Hawkins told The Associated Press the Navy called repeatedly to the Iranians, who ultimately let the drone go.

Iran did not immediately acknowledge the incident. However, it comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Iran over Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers.

The Saildrone Explorer USV (unmanned surface vehicle) is a newly developed and deployed US-manufactured high tech data collection system which uses AI to autonomously gather oceanic and other intelligence

Saildrone USV, which uses solar power to operate some of its components. Image: US Navy

According to an industry website, “The Royal Jordanian Navy and the US Navy’s 5th Fleet established an unmanned task force for the integration of unmanned systems and artificial intelligence into its operations, in September 2021.”

“The Jordanian naval base in Aqaba has been serving as a joint hub for operations of Saildrone USV in the Red Sea since December 2021,” the report details.

Saildrone USV. Image: US Navy

The drone’s size is significant, with a hull length of 23ft (7m), a wing height of 15ft (5m), and a draft of 6ft (2m), according to specs listed by Naval Technology.

“The Saildrone USV autonomously navigates through large areas of the oceans based on waypoint-to-waypoint navigation through wind and currents,” the description indicates. “It is constantly monitored by a pilot who can command and control the USV using satellite communications.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/30/2022 – 15:20

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10 Facts Electric Vehicle Advocates Don’t Want You To Know

10 Facts Electric Vehicle Advocates Don’t Want You To Know

Authored by Mark Tapscott via PJMedia.com,

There are a host of reasons why the Left is absolutely determined to force Americans out of their privately owned, gasoline-powered cars and trucks and into unreliable public transportation and costly Electric Vehicles (EVs), none of which have to do with “saving the environment.”

The central reason the Left loves EVs is that the process of forcing Americans to convert to electric-powered transportation will destroy forever the incredible freedom and prosperity associated with privately owned gas-powered vehicles.

The future will instead be centrally controlled by rich elitists and their corrupt politicians, power-hungry bureaucrats, and ideologically driven “experts.”

When Ransom Olds in 1901 and Henry Ford in 1908 sold America’s first mass-produced automobiles (the Curved Dash Olds and the Model T, respectively), they launched America toward becoming the world’s first open road society.

It took a couple of decades, but by the 1930s car ownership was virtually a middle-class staple and that meant, for millions of Americans, the freedom to go wherever they wanted to go when they chose to do so, without getting prior permission from government.

It is no exaggeration to say one of the chief factors in America growing out of the Depression was the ability of millions of Americans to buy new and used cars and trucks. The St. Louis Federal Reserve put it this way in September 1935 in the middle of the Great Depression:

“During the first 6 months of 1935, companies and individuals purchased from motor-vehicle dealers 1,461,940 new passenger cars and 254,063 trucks, paying for these vehicles a sum estimated at approximately $1,460,000,000. The first half year registrations were 44 percent greater in 1935 than during the corresponding period of last year, while the increase over the same 6 months of 1933 was 121 percent.”

The rise of the privately owned, gas-powered automobile also generated booming industries that to this day provide millions of good jobs, financial stability, and personal income growth that are foundational to the American economy.

Just think of all the dealerships, repair shops, parts stores, road construction, energy production, distribution and retailing, insurance, and law enforcement jobs that exist because there are hundreds of millions of cars and trucks in this country.

But those good things will be lost if California’s plan to ban the sale of all gas-powered vehicles by 2035 becomes national policy. There is so much that is so incredibly wrong-headed, if not either outright dishonest or stupid, with the drive to force Americans into EVs.

For example, as the experts at powerthefuture.com point out, here are 10 facts about EVs the Left doesn’t want Americans to know:

1. EVs are powered by fossil fuels. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), fossil fuel-based power plants — coal, oil, or natural gas — create about 60% of the nation’s electrical grid, while nuclear power accounts for nearly 20%.

2. The batteries of EVs rely on cobalt. An estimated 70% of the global supply of cobalt emanates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country with deplorable working conditions, especially for children.

3. A study released earlier this year by an environmental group showed that nearly one-third of San Francisco’s electric charging stations were non-functioning. The population of San Francisco represents roughly two percent of California.

4. Supporters of the California law admit there will be a 40% increase in demand for electricity, adding further strain to the grid and requiring increased costs for power and infrastructure.

5. According to one researcher, the strain of adding an EV is similar to adding “1 or 2 air conditioners” to your home, except an EV requires power year-round.

6. Today, 20 million American families, or one in six, have fallen behind on their electric bills, the highest amount ever.

7. Utility companies will need to add $5,800 in upgrades for every new EV for the next eight years in order to compensate for the demand for power. All customers will shoulder this cost.

8. The average price for an electric vehicle is currently $66,000, up more than 13% in just the last year, costing an average of $18,000 more than the average combustible engine. Meanwhile, the median household income is $67,521. For African American families, the average is $45,870, and for Hispanic households, $55,321.

9. A 2022 study found that the majority of EV charging occurs at home, leaving those who live in multi-family dwellings (apartments) at a real disadvantage for charging.

10. The same study also noted that many drivers charge their EVs overnight when solar power is less available on the grid.

There are many more facts about EVs you will never hear spoken by the Left’s politicians, including President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and the national and state leadership of the Democratic Party.

Neither will you hear any of these facts – except when they are being misrepresented and distorted by self-appointed “fact-checkers” – in college classrooms, the mainstream media, and even representatives of the “Big Three” automakers, who fear getting on the wrong side of government.

Oh, and by the way, guess who is laughing their keisters off as America heads into the Left’s EV future, knowing they control so much of the equipment, materials, and technology necessary for batteries, thus giving them a choke-hold on the U.S. economy?

Can you spell C-H-I-N-A?

*  *  *

Support PJ Media so we can keep telling the truth about the radical climate alarmists’ agenda. Your VIP membership supports our conservative journalism. Use the promo code GREENNEWSCAM for a 25% off discount!

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/30/2022 – 15:00

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Dow Theory Reasserts Its Cyclically-Bearish Signal As BofA’s “Biggest Support” Level Looms

Dow Theory Reasserts Its Cyclically-Bearish Signal As BofA’s “Biggest Support” Level Looms

As US equity markets catch back down to the ‘no-pivot’ reality that short-term interest-rates (STIRs) have steadfastly stuck to, BofA’s Stephen Suttmeier notes that capitulation signals are now likely needed for any tactical low to be put in place again.

Today’s Kashari-pleasing plunge has pushed the S&P back below 4,000 and more notably below its 50DMA…

BofA’s Technical Research Strategist notes that after the “Jackson Hole” failure at downside gap resistance at 4195-4219, the SPX broke lower from a tactical head and shoulders top.

A NYSE 90% down day on 8/26 confirmed the breakdown on the SPX, but the NYSE ARMS Index (TRIN) did not show tactical capitulation on a close above 2.0.

Two other indicators that may require capitulation for a climactic tactical low in US equities are the 5-day CBOE total put/call on a spike up toward 1.2 or higher…

…and the 3-month VIX vs the VIX on a spike below 1.0…

In other words, until we see those indicators ‘capitulate’ to those levels, Powell’s “pain” remains in play tactically.

However, as Suttmeier details in his latest note, if there is one support to watch for US equities, it is 14,000 on the NYSE.

The NYSE Comp is the Rodney Dangerfield of US equity indices. It gets no respect. But, this broad-based index of US stocks and ADRs formed a double bottom from its rising 200-week moving average (MA) at the June and July lows, which is bullish. But, the big support is defined by the early 2020 peak at 14,183, the rising 200-week MA at 14,177, the 38.2% retracement of the March 2020 to January 2022 rally at 14,089 and the double bottom lows at 13,993-13,998.

The Dow Theory sell signal from earlier this year remains intact as long as the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports stay below their 8/16 peaks.

To shift the regime into a bullish Dow Theory signal, a higher low vs the June low followed by a move above the mid August highs from both the Industrials and Transports is needed…

Of course, there is always the chance that this analog holds…

But, it’s different this time… because Powell just removed the Fed Put on this downswing (for now).

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/30/2022 – 14:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/moc7DEI Tyler Durden

Peter Schiff: Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Scheme Fixes Nothing

Peter Schiff: Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Scheme Fixes Nothing

Via SchiffGold.com,

President Joe Biden recently announced a student loan forgiveness program. While it will provide some people a small amount of relief from student loan debt, this $300 billion taxpayer-funded scheme does nothing to address the underlying problem. In fact, it will exacerbate it.

The underlying problem is the high cost of a college education.

And why is college tuition so expensive?

The cost is directly linked to the widespread availability of student loans.

Forgiving a little bit of student debt doesn’t change the underlying dynamics. Even as some people will see their debt balances decrease, new students are borrowing money even as you read this article.

And of course, the federal government signaling that its willingness to forgive debt won’t do anything to deter more borrowing. It will only incentivize more student debt. As Peter Schiff pointed out in a recent interview, loan forgiveness increases moral hazard. Moral hazard means a lack of incentive to guard against risk because people are protected from the consequences.

Remember, the only reason we have all these student loans is because the government provided them or guaranteed them. The only reason college is so expensive is because the government provides so much money in the way of loans. But now that they start forgiving loans, students are going to borrow more money than ever before. Because the colleges are going to tell the students, ‘Hey, who cares how much you borrow for college? You’re not going to have to pay any of it back anyway. So, we’re going to double your tuition, and don’t worry. Maybe we’ll throw in a free car.”

Schiff alludes to the root of the issue. The government is trying to solve a problem that it created to begin with.

Somewhere along the line, the powers that be decided everybody needed to go to college. So, the government created the federal student loan program to make college “accessible for all.” But as with most government programs, it failed to deliver as promised. The result wasn’t more people going to college. It simply increased the cost of tuition for those going to school. In effect, colleges and universities were able to base their prices on the fact that students can easily borrow money.

This isn’t merely theorizing. A paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) in 2015 found that a large percentage of the increase in college tuition can be explained by increases in the amount of available financial aid.

Economists Grey Gordon and Aaron Hedlund wrote their paper for the NBER after creating a sophisticated model of the college market. When they crunched the numbers, they found that the demand shock of ever-increasing financial aid accounted for almost all of the tuition increase:

Specifically, with demand shocks alone, equilibrium tuition rises by 102%, almost fully matching the 106% from the benchmark. By contrast, with all factors present except the demand shocks, net tuition only rises by 16%. These results accord strongly with the Bennett hypothesis, which asserts that colleges respond to expansions of financial aid by increasing tuition.”

George Mason University economist Alex Tabarrok pointed out that Gordon and Hedlund revealed the inevitable outcome of government financial aid policy.

Remarkably, so much of the subsidy is translated into higher tuition that enrollment doesn’t increase! What does happen is that students take on more debt, which many of them can’t pay.”

A paper published by the Federal Reserve bank of New York came to the same basic conclusion.

We find that institutions more exposed to changes in the subsidized federal loan program increased their tuition disproportionately around these policy changes, with a sizable pass-through effect on tuition of about 65%.”

In a nutshell, the federal government raised the cost of a college degree while destroying its value. Peter Schiff summed up the problem several years ago during an interview with Tom Woods.

Government wanted to make college more affordable. They made it more expensive. And at the same time, they destroyed the value of the degree. It costs more to get a degree, and the degree is worth less, because everyone now has one.”

Fast-forward to today and the problem has only grown larger. Student loan debt in the US totaled $1.59 trillion at the end of the second quarter. Around 43 million Americans hold student loan debt. Less than a third of those owe less than $10,000.

Biden’s scheme doesn’t even put a dent in the level of student loan debt. More significantly, it not only fails to address the underlying problem – it will exacerbate it.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/30/2022 – 14:20

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Mom Who Let Her 7-Year-Old Play at the Park Will Not Be Added to Arizona’s Unfit Parent Registry


Free-range kids playing outside

Last week, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge temporarily blocked the state of Arizona from adding a Tucson mother to the state’s list of unfit parents.

Sarra, whose full name is withheld to protect her privacy, was arrested for alleged child endangerment in 2020 after allowing her 7-year-old son and his 5-year-old friend to play at the park while she ran an errand. Reason‘s Robby Soave covered her story here.

Sarra’s case was dropped after she pled guilty and agreed to take parenting classes, but the state’s Department of Child Safety (DCS) moved forward with a separate action: adding Sarra’s name to the Central Registry, a government-maintained blacklist of Arizonans who are prohibited from working with children.

“I do not believe that I neglected him,” said Sarra, when she testified. “No, I believe that playing in the park is something that was appropriate to his development level, to who he is right now.”

At Sarra’s hearing, the department argued that any number of horrible things could have happened to her son during the 30 minutes she was at the grocery store purchasing a Thanksgiving turkey: He could have been attacked by homeless people, witnessed drug abuse, sprained an ankle, broken an arm, or even stepped on glass or needles. Or he could have been abducted by a daytime kidnapper undeterred by all the dog walkers, park workers, and people attending a nearby tai chi class being taught by an acquaintance of Sarra. Sarra, on the other hand, argued that those things weren’t likely to happen and didn’t.

She lost. But then the Goldwater Institute and the Pacific Legal Foundation got involved, and in a rare bit of good news, a judge agreed to stop the department from adding Sarra’s name to the Central Registry.

At Sarra’s hearing, I testified as an expert witness, and I can tell you that Sarra’s only crime was being rational.

The facts are not in dispute: Someone saw Sarra’s son and his friend playing in the park and called the cops. In return for pleading guilty to contributing to the delinquency of a minor and taking a life skills course, the criminal charges were dropped. But DCS was not as easily appeased.

The fact that there hadn’t been a child abduction in over a decade, according to the Tucson police department’s own records, made no difference. That Sarra went back to the park to scour for needles and found none was also irrelevant. And how about the fact that she had actually worked as a statistician early in her career, so she had an above-average understanding of relative risk? The state didn’t care.

“Arizona courts have reasoned that in dealing with ‘probable cause,’ we deal with probabilities,” said DCS attorney Kayla Peckard at the hearing. “These aren’t technical or factual.”

Peckard essentially conceded that so-called probabilities don’t have to be, well, probable.

“Adopting statistical data as part of the standard of ‘probable cause’ runs contrary to the legal precedent,” she said.

When I took the stand (via Zoom), Sarra’s lawyer, Thea Gilbert, asked me about my research on stranger danger. I replied that in researching my book, Free-Range Kids, I learned that if for some reason you wanted your child to be snatched by a stranger, you would have to leave a child outside for 750,000 years for that particular crime to be statistically likely to happen.

Gilbert then asked about the “reasonable childhood independence” laws that my nonprofit, Let Grow, helped to pass in four states. I noted that Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) had just signed his state’s bill into law the day before. “What’s the significance of a childhood independence law?” Gilbert asked.

In most states, I replied, the neglect laws are pretty broad. That leaves them wide open to interpretation. Given all the different decisions a parent has to make and all the different judgments that onlookers (and caseworkers) might have, the reasonable independence laws clarify that neglect is only when you put your kids in obvious, serious, and likely danger—not anytime you take your eyes off them.

“Have any of those childhood independence laws been enacted in Arizona?” the DCS lawyer asked during cross-examination.

“Not yet,” I admitted.

But the tides are turning. Timothy Sandefur, the Goldwater Institute’s vice president for legal affairs, is hopeful that the appeals judge will rule that the bar for blacklisting parents—probable cause—is unconstitutionally low.

Right now, Sandefur explained, mere “probable cause” can get you listed. But probable cause is the low bar cops use to obtain a warrant.

“It’s basically synonymous with ‘suspicion,'” he says.

Guaranteeing people due process in such hearings and narrowing government neglect laws will ensure parents can make reasonable parenting decisions—and even let their kids play outside—without getting slammed by the state.

The post Mom Who Let Her 7-Year-Old Play at the Park Will Not Be Added to Arizona's Unfit Parent Registry appeared first on Reason.com.

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Court Rejects Suit by Volunteer Yale Psych Professor Fired for Public Diagnosis of Trump and Alan Dershowitz

Lee v. Yale Univ., decided today by Judge Sarah Merriam (D. Conn.), was brought by Dr. Bandy Lee, a volunteer (uncompensated) clinical professor in the Yale School of Medicine’s Law and Psychiatry Division. (This volunteer service required her to “participate in four hours of student-related, teaching, or supervisory activities per week. These activities could be satisfied through teaching a course, lectures, through advising students in connection with their thesis preparation, supervising residents, participating in seminars and grand rounds, engaging in scholarly activity, participating in department administration, and other activities.”) She was fired on Sept. 4, 2020 for the following reasons:

[T]he review committee … consider[ed] whether the Department could offer you a continuing teaching role …. The key question in our minds was whether you had the clinical judgment and professionalism to teach trainees key aspects of their profession. Your diagnostic impressions of President Trump and several other public figures and your recommendations for treating President Trump played a role in our discussion. This was not because of the political content of your speech. As you know, the Department and the University publicly defended your academic freedom and your right to express your opinions as a citizen. As detailed below, the Committee’s concern was what your diagnoses and treatment recommendations said about your clinical abilities and professionalism.

Since 2017, you have taken the position that you have a “duty to warn” the public that President Trump presents a threat to public safety. The duty to warn derives from the Tarasoff decision and subsequent legal developments, and it applies to clinicians in a treatment relationship with a potentially dangerous person. It has never been applied outside that context. In public comments, you said that President Trump was incapacitated by a psychiatric disorder, and you identified symptoms such as aggressive speech, sexual misconduct, incitement to violence, belief in conspiracies, declining cognitive functioning, and neurological deficits. Initially, you did not identify the disorder causing these supposed symptoms. In December 2019, you said publicly that President Trump exhibited a “pattern of delusions,” was “lacking rational decisionmaking capacity,” and had “definitive signs of severe pathology” that required “an advanced level of care.” In January 2020, you called for “an involuntary evaluation” of President Trump, and you said, “I am beginning to believe a mental health hold … will become inevitable.” That same month, you publicly suggested that President Trump, Rudolph Giuliani and Alan Dershowitz had a “shared psychosis.”

I want to emphasize that you did not make these statements as a layperson offering a political judgment; you made them explicitly in your professional capacity as a psychiatrist and on the basis of your psychiatric knowledge and judgment. For that reason, the committee decided it was appropriate to consider how these statements reflected your ability to teach trainees.

We began our discussion by asking you to address whether your diagnosis of President Trump and your treatment recommendations should have included a disclaimer regarding limited evidence, whether they adequately reflected the process of differential diagnosis, and whether you applied any recognized standards when you determined on the basis of his public statements that President Trump presented a danger to the public health. Your responses failed to address any of these points.

Our discussion then turned to your statement that President Trump and Mr. Dershowitz had a shared psychosis. You told us that “someone doesn’t have to be psychotic in order to have a psychosis;” that your observations had convinced you that the strong emotional bond between President Trump and his followers “is a group phenomenon of shared psychosis;” and that, in the presence of this bond, “the default is that you would expect a shared psychosis.” You further claimed that you were misquoted; that, in fact, you had said President Trump and Mr. Dershowitz “may” have a shared psychosis; and that you meant to say that they have a shared delusional disorder. We asked you to explain in detail the basis for this diagnosis, and none of the evidence you offered met the DSM-5 criteria for shared delusional disorder. The committee also noted that you explored no other explanations that might have accounted for the data that led you to your diagnosis.

Following our discussion with you, the committee considered whether the information that you shared with us was relevant to your capacity to teach trainees the core competencies required by the ACGME. We decided that our discussion with you implicated three of the six competencies: medical knowledge, interpersonal and communication skills, and professionalism.

In regard to medical knowledge, the ACGME requires trainees “to demonstrate knowledge about established and evolving biomedical, clinical, and cognate sciences and the application of this knowledge to patient care.” Our discussion of your diagnosis of shared psychosis or, as you preferred, shared delusional disorder convinced the committee that you do not adequately understand or choose not to follow current methods for diagnosing psychotic disorders, which are common in the psychiatric practice that our trainees will enter.

In regard to interpersonal communication skills, the ACGME requires trainees “to demonstrate interpersonal and communication skills that result in effective information exchange and teaming with patients, patients’ families, and professional associates.” In our lengthy discussion with you, you were unable to explain to four trained colleagues the basis of a very serious diagnosis. In addition, you have made many conflicting, confusing, and sometimes inaccurate public statements about psychiatric diagnosis and the profession’s duty to warn.

Finally, the ACGME requires trainees “to demonstrate a commitment to carrying out professional responsibilities, adherence to ethical principles, and sensitivity to a diverse patient population.” Although the committee does not doubt that you are acting on the basis of your personal moral code, your repeated violations of the APA’s Goldwater Rule and your inappropriate transfer of the duty to warn from the treatment setting to national politics raised significant doubts about your understanding of crucial ethical and legal principles in psychiatry.

In light of the above concerns, the Committee concluded that the Department should not seek a new teaching role for you. The Committee report was shared with the Executive Committee of the Department of Psychiatry and discussed at length. Its recommendation, that your teaching duties not be reinstated, was endorsed unanimously by the Executive Committee. In the absence of a formal teaching role, your voluntary appointment lapsed….

The court rejected Lee’s breach of contract claim, concluding that there was no “implied contract that Yale would not decline to reappoint plaintiff, regardless of whether it found that plaintiff was no longer qualified for the position, based at least in part on her public statements”:

Plaintiff fails to acknowledge, in arguing that she expected her appointment to be effectively automatically renewed, that the Faculty Handbook expressly provides: “The reappointment of persons holding term appointments is not automatic at Yale.” As noted elsewhere, plaintiff expressly relies on the Faculty Handbook where she believes it supports her claims, but disregards this express statement of the Faculty Handbook that undermines her claims….

[Yale’s] alleged generic expressions of “approval and appreciation” or commendation [for her past work] are insufficient to even suggest a promise of continued appointment, much less support a contractual commitment. Even if the Court were to treat these statements as “favorable performance evaluations” of plaintiff, such “isolated positive feedback” does not support a finding that Yale intended to guarantee plaintiff continued appointment….

Plaintiff’s vague assertion that some unspecified provision in the Faculty Handbook creates a right to “academic freedom” is plainly insufficient to show that defendant undertook a contractual commitment to guarantee plaintiff continued reappointment…. And [Yale’s] generalized statements of principles are not sufficient to manifest the intent to form a contract for guaranteed reappointment. The parties’ course of conduct, the statements made by Yale administrators, the Faculty Handbook, and Yale’s policy statements—taken individually or in combination—are, as a matter of law, insufficiently definite to create the contract that plaintiff seeks to enforce. Plaintiff has “pluck[ed] out of context” various statements indicating that she was previously successful in her role, and expressing that Yale values academic freedom. Plaintiff has failed, however, to point to any facts, “which if taken as true, would demonstrate Defendants’ intention to be contractually liable to Plaintiff” for declining to reappoint her regardless of whether it found that she was no longer qualified for the position….

This is especially true in light of the express disavowal, in at least two places in the Faculty Handbook, of any guarantee of reappointment. See Doc. #32-6 at 23 (“The reappointment of persons holding term appointments is not automatic at Yale.”);  (“Faculty members on term appointments do not have a right to reappointment[.]”). It is not reasonable to believe that the other portions of the Faculty Handbook, a few stray supportive remarks, and a history of consistent reappointment somehow negates these express statements of intent by Yale.

And the court rejected plaintiff’s claim under the Connecticut private employee free speech statute, which provides,

Any employer … who subjects any employee to discipline or discharge on account of the exercise by such employee of rights guaranteed by the first amendment to the United States Constitution or section 3, 4 or 14 of article first of the Constitution of the state, provided such activity does not substantially or materially interfere with the employee’s bona fide job performance or the working relationship between the employee and the employer, shall be liable to such employee for damages caused by such discipline or discharge[.]

But a volunteer such as Lee, the court concluded, doesn’t count as an “employee” for purposes of the statute:

To adequately allege remuneration [so as to make someone an employee], a plaintiff must allege “either direct compensation, such as salary or wages, or indirect benefits that are not merely incidental to the activity performed.” … [S]uch indirect benefits include “health insurance, vacation, sick pay, a disability pension, survivors’ benefits, group life insurance, scholarships for dependents upon death, or other indirect but significant remuneration.”

Plaintiff concedes that she “did not receive traditional compensation” from Yale. Nevertheless, plaintiff contends that her “relationship with Defendant yielded substantial tangible and intangible benefits for both parties.” Plaintiff asserts that she “was given access to the university’s libraries, subscription-based research materials, office space, [and] the university’s facilities.” She also contends that she was “covered under the Defendant’s malpractice insurance” for “her forensic consultations.”

These alleged benefits supplied by Yale are insufficient to satisfy the remuneration test. “Unlike a salary, vacation, sick pay, or benefits such as health insurance, disability insurance, life insurance, death benefits, and retirement pension, all of which primarily benefit the employee independently of the employer, the benefits put forward by [plaintiff] … , were merely incidental to the administration of the [defendant’s] programs for the benefit of [Yale] at large.” …

Plaintiff further alleges that “[t]hrough her association with [Yale], she secured prestigious appointments with domestic and international organizations, received research grants based on her academic affiliation and developed and implemented programs within the Yale School of Medicine.” As a result of these grants and appointments, plaintiff alleges that “[a] majority of Dr. Lee’s income was derived from her faculty appointment, affiliation, and relationship with Yale.” Plaintiff does not allege, however, that this income was received from Yale. Absent such an allegation, plaintiff has alleged only that she received such grants and appointments because Yale provided her with the “vague benefit” of increased “name recognition[.]” Such a benefit is insufficient to satisfy the remuneration requirement. …

Finally, the court rejected some other claims, such as for negligent misrepresentation and “the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing.”

Note that the result might well have been different for a paid professor: The Connecticut statute might then have applied, and it would be more likely (I expect) that the university’s contract with the professor (tenured or even pretenured but tenure-track) would indeed provide some protections for academic freedom.

The post Court Rejects Suit by Volunteer Yale Psych Professor Fired for Public Diagnosis of Trump and Alan Dershowitz appeared first on Reason.com.

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This Tennessee Town Claims Restricting Protests Helps ‘Facilitate’ the First Amendment


A red marker draws an X over a group of protesters

In Franklin, Tennessee, the sun may be setting on residents’ ability to participate in public demonstrations free of government interference. As part of city guidance that is “intended to facilitate the safe exercise of First Amendment rights,” Franklin officials explain, they are significantly restricting when, where, and how residents may participate in any “public gathering and expression event.”

Per an ordinance passed unanimously by the Franklin Board of Mayor and Aldermen (BOMA) last week, the city will not grant permits for any public gathering and expression events taking place after dark, nor will any event that does not require a permit be allowed to take place in the city after dark. The ordinance also prohibits expression events from taking place in the Downtown District between 5 p.m. on Fridays and 7 a.m. on Saturdays, as well as between 5 p.m. on Saturdays and 7 a.m. on Sundays.

Franklin’s code defines public gathering and expression events as instances of “noncommercial public assembly” that take place on public property, are “likely to obstruct” vehicular or pedestrian traffic, or have over 20 participants. The ordinance also introduces restrictions targeting “events which require amplification or which occur more than once per month (regardless of size),” according to a background document prepared by city officials. Violations of the ordinance will carry a misdemeanor charge resulting in a citation.

“We as the city have the ability to navigate and to manage time, place and manner that those demonstrations happen,” City Administrator Eric Stuckey said in June when the rule changes were first being considered. The city’s background document claims that the ordinance will ensure Franklin “provides protection to all who wish to exercise” their First Amendment rights.

In 2019, BOMA adopted a structure to permit public gathering and expression events. That move followed white supremacist rallies in Charlottesville, Virginia, and nearby Shelbyville, Tennessee. “We saw it as a way to facilitate the exercise of First Amendment rights,” said Stuckey of the permitting structure.

Franklin officials first floated the new restrictions on expression events at a June 14 meeting. City Attorney Shauna Billingsley outlined the ban on demonstrations after dark, saying, “We really don’t think that’s a safe thing for really anyone.” The proposed restrictions originally included a ban on expression events from 5 p.m. on Fridays through 7 a.m. on Mondays in the downtown historic district, though this was ultimately scaled back.

“The reason for that” weekend ban, Billingsley explained, was that “it seems as though after work on Friday, our downtown turns into something different. It’s much more shopping and eating, more social events and those kinds of things. So we’re not sure that protests in the heart of downtown during the weekend should be permitted.” She also stressed that “safety is important,” noting that “police officers can’t really watch over people in the dark.”

As much as city officials stress this ordinance will protect First Amendment rights, it raises obvious concerns on that front. “Threatening misdemeanors for expressive activity after dark is going to put Franklin [on] a collision course with the First Amendment,” says Adam Steinbaugh, attorney at the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression. “Municipalities can impose content-neutral limits on the time, place, or manner of expression, but those limits have to be reasonable and this isn’t.” For one, he explains, “not everyone can protest during the workday and a lot of expressive activity necessarily occurs in the evening.”

What’s more, the ordinance’s broad wording may come to target completely innocuous expression events. “You want to tell me the city of Franklin wants to issue misdemeanors for Christmas carolers or people holding a candlelight vigil?” asks Steinbaugh. The potential for uneven enforcement also lingers. Steinbaugh offers a hypothetical: Will Franklin police be more likely to write up 21 Christmas carolers or 21 people protesting the police if both groups are violating the ordinance?

“The sun doesn’t set on the First Amendment,” says Steinbaugh. “Franklin’s leaders should reconsider.”

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Republicans Supported Abortion Bans for Decades. Now They’ve Gone Silent.


Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters in front of abortion protest placards.

When the Supreme Court decided Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in June, overturning the right to abortion guaranteed by Roe v. Wade (1973) for nearly five decades, it came as little surprise: A draft copy of the majority opinion was leaked nearly two months earlier.

But Republicans have agitated for the end of Roe for generations. Ronald Reagan, the first Republican elected president after the case was decided, was the favored candidate of abortion opponents based on his support for a constitutional ban.

This remained the Republican platform for decades, even as public support for abortion with either few or no restrictions remained the majority position. Republicans appointed judges and Supreme Court justices based on the nominee’s likelihood to look askance at Roe. Now that the goal has been achieved, some Republicans seem to be expressing buyer’s remorse.

Blake Masters is the Republican Senate candidate in Arizona. Like Ohio’s J.D. Vance, Masters is a venture capitalist and an acolyte and former employee of Peter Thiel, who has given millions to each man’s campaign. Despite a longstanding reputation as a Silicon Valley libertarian, Thiel pivoted in recent years toward “national conservatism,” using state power to achieve his ideological ends.

A recent Politico profile characterized Masters as “king of the trolls,” combative and macho-posturing, dedicated to upsetting “the libs.” He supports a national ban on abortion, a practice he referred to as “demonic” and akin to “religious sacrifice.”

But last week, Masters tried to pivot to a position more aligned with mainstream polling. Masters released an ad saying that his opponent, Sen. Mark Kelly (D–Ariz.), supported “the most extreme abortion laws in the world,” Masters only opposed “very late-term and partial-birth abortion.” At the same time, Masters scrubbed restrictionist abortion proposals from his campaign website. CNN reported that another Republican, Michigan congressional candidate Tom Barrett, also removed language from his website that favored abortion restrictions with “no exceptions.”

And this week, the Los Angeles Times reported that three House Republicans from California had gone silent on the issue since the Dobbs decision in June, despite all having previously co-sponsored the Life at Conception Act, a nationwide abortion ban “including the moment of fertilization, cloning, or other moment at which an individual member of the human species comes into being.”

Notably, public opinion has not changed much in the five decades since Roe: Around three-quarters of Americans consistently support some level of abortion access. It has also long been official Republican policy to oppose the practice and support a ban.

But since the Dobbs decision effectively accomplished the first half of their goal, political trends have not broken in Republicans’ direction. Earlier this month, deep-red Kansas voted overwhelmingly against banning abortion in the state’s Constitution. While traditionally the president’s party fares poorly in midterm elections, Democrats have outperformed the historical trends in the special elections held since the Dobbs decision.

Perhaps Republicans are simply lying to get elected. Some may have actually had a change of heart. Either way, it is encouraging that politicians are adapting to the notion that on at least one issue, by and large, Americans simply wish to be left alone to make their own decisions.

The post Republicans Supported Abortion Bans for Decades. Now They've Gone Silent. appeared first on Reason.com.

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