Lindsey Graham Calls For Release Of Trump Affidavit: ‘We’re Flying Blind’

Lindsey Graham Calls For Release Of Trump Affidavit: ‘We’re Flying Blind’

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Tuesday called for the release of the FBI affidavit that was used to justify the raid of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.

We need the affidavit, show your cards, Merrick Garland can’t have it both ways, he can’t give us the inventory of the warrant without telling us why it was necessary … without the affidavit, we’re flying blind in the dark,” Graham said, adding, “The American people are going through too much pain, too much heartache on this endless effort to destroy Donald Trump.”

(L-R) Then-President Donald Trump looks on as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) speaks during an event about judicial confirmations in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2019. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Graham’s comment came a day after Department of Justice lawyers argued in court that the affidavit should be sealed, including redacted versions of the document, because it would harm the agency’s investigation.

An affidavit would provide more details about the investigation and would provide insight into why the federal government is investigating Trump, including what triggered last week’s raid on Mar-a-Lago.

So far, a U.S. magistrate judge in the case authorized the unsealing of an FBI warrant and property receipt, which showed that agents took materials there were allegedly considered top secret or classified from Trump’s home. The judge, Bruce Reinhart, who in 2008 represented individuals associated with infamous sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, scheduled a 1 p.m. Thursday hearing on whether the affidavit and other related documents should be unsealed.

But Trump on Monday accused FBI agents of taking three passports from him, suggesting that the raid went too far. Department of Justice officials confirmed Monday evening that the passports would be returned, according to a screenshot of emails posted by a Trump spokesman.

Like Graham, Trump on Truth Social called on the federal government to release the affidavit. Judicial Watch, media outlets, the Florida Center for Governmental Accountability, and other groups have filed motions to unseal the affidavit and other related documents.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 19:45

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Tomato Shortage Emerges In Drought-Stricken Californian As Ketchup Prices Soar

Tomato Shortage Emerges In Drought-Stricken Californian As Ketchup Prices Soar

Days ago, we said the next food insecurity problem that may impact Americans’ eating habits could be an emerging potato shortage. Now there appears to be another issue: Tomatoes are getting squeezed, and risks of a ketchup shortage rise as a severe drought batter California’s farmland.

California accounts for a quarter of the world’s tomato output. The worst drought in 1,200 years has forced farmers to abandon fields as crops turn to dust amid a water crisis. 

“We desperately need rain … and are getting to a point where we don’t have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand,” Mike Montna, head of the California Tomato Growers Association, told Bloomberg.

“It’s real tough to grow a tomato crop right now,” Montna continued, adding, “on one side you have the drought impacting costs because you don’t have enough water to grow all your acres, and then you have the farm inflation side of it with fuel and fertilizer costs shooting up.” 

The lack of water and the soaring cost of farming appears to be a ‘perfect storm’ in the making that could result in a shortage of all sorts of tomato-based products, including ketchup, salsa, and spaghetti sauce. 

Rick Blankenship, Chairman of the Board at California Tomato Research Institute, warned crop yields are “way off this year … and coupled with drought, we’ve had high temperatures and that in itself creates an issue where the tomatoes are so hot that they just don’t size properly — so you have a lot of tomatoes on a plant, but they are smaller.” 

Bloomberg said the value for a ton of tomatoes reached an all-time high this year of $105 due to higher input prices, such as diesel and fertilizer, compounded with the drought. 

“You would think that it was a home run for growers, but in reality the input costs have gone up so much that the potential profit was all gobbled up,” Blankenship said.

R. Greg Pruett, sales and energy manager for Ingomar Packing Co., one of the world’s largest tomato processors, said not all customers will get their processed products. The company sells to some of the largest food brands. He said inventories are plunging to critically low levels. 

“If you are looking for a significant amount of tomato paste and you haven’t already contracted it then you aren’t going to get it no matter what the price is,” Pruett said, adding, “it’s just not there.”

Market research firm IRI shows the price of tomato sauce in the last four weeks ended July 10 surged 17% from a year ago, while ketchup jumped 23%.

Besides tomatoes, french fries could be in short supply as the potato crop has suffered from a heatwave. And worse, most of the US beer imports come from northern Mexico, where the region is running out of water

Ketchup, french fries, and beer could soon be in short supply or experience price hikes due to tightening supply. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 19:20

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“‘Holographic Conversational’ AI Lets Dead Speak at Funerals”

From AV Magazine (Darron Kirkby):

[Start-up] StoryFile creates a digital clone of the subject by using 20 synchronised cameras to record them answering a series of questions. The footage is then processed, with clips tagged and used to train an artificial intelligence (AI) that can provide responses to questions in natural language.

One of the first users of the technology was Marina Smith MBE—the mother of StoryFile’s chief executive Dr Stephen Smith—who died in June at the age of 87. In January, Smith, the co-founder of the UK’s National Holocaust Centre and Museum, chose topics she thought her friends and family would want to ask about at her funeral. She then spent several hours over a two-day period recording two-minute video answers to 75 from a database of 250,000 potential questions, using a webcam and her computer.

At her funeral, Smith addressed her friends and family through a pre-recorded video about her life and spirituality. She was also able to answer questions from her loved ones during the memorial service, with the hologram creating the illusion of a real-time conversation.

Not the sort of thing I’d really want at a loved one’s funeral, and the Smiths (both mother and son) may have been unusually interested in the technology. Still, others might disagree; and I can imagine that, once the software gets good enough, people might want to occasionally “talk” to their dead friends or family members—or perhaps have their children get to know their ancestors this way.

The post "'Holographic Conversational' AI Lets Dead Speak at Funerals" appeared first on Reason.com.

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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Jarkesy v. SEC

Earlier this year, in Jarkesy v. SEC, a divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit held that Securities and Exchange Commission’s enforcement proceedings are unconstitutional on three separate grounds. Judge Elrod wrote for the panel, joined by Judge Oldham. Judge Davis dissented. Last month, the SEC filed a petition for en banc review.

The Jarkesy opinion brought cheers from some quarters, dismay from others. Even Jon Stewart had an opinion on it.

Yesterday I participated in a webinar on Jarkesy for the Federalist Society’s Regulatory Transparency Project, and I thought it was worth a quick post to summarize my views on the good, bad, and ugly parts of the opinion.

The background of hte case is  that the SEC brought an enforcement action against Jarkesy and Patriot28, alleging that they had committed securities fraud. The SEC pursued the action not in federal court, but in an administrative proceeding in front of an Administrative Law Judge (ALJ), who concluded that the defendants had, in fact, committed fraud. The SEC affirmed this conclusion and rejected Jarkesy’s constitutional challenges to the SEC proceedings, prompting Jarkesy to seek review before the Fifth Circuit.

Here is how the Judge Elrod summarized the case and the issues presented in the intro to the opinion:

Congress has given the Securities and Exchange Commission substantial power to enforce the nation’s securities laws. It often acts as both prosecutor and judge, and its decisions have broad consequences for personal liberty and property. But the Constitution constrains the SEC’s powers by protecting individual rights and the prerogatives of the other branches of government. This case is about the nature and extent of those constraints in securities fraud cases in which the SEC seeks penalties.

The SEC brought an enforcement action within the agency against Petitioners for securities fraud. An SEC administrative law judge adjudged Petitioners liable and ordered various remedies, and the SEC affirmed on appeal over several constitutional arguments that Petitioners raised. Petitioners raise those same arguments before this court. We hold that: (1) the SEC’s in-house adjudication of Petitioners’ case violated their Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial; (2) Congress unconstitutionally delegated legislative power to the SEC by failing to provide an intelligible principle by which the SEC would exercise the delegated power, in violation of Article I’s vesting of “all” legislative power in Congress; and (3) statutory removal restrictions on SEC ALJs violate the Take Care Clause of Article II. Because the agency proceedings below were unconstitutional, we GRANT the petition for review, VACATE the decision of the SEC, and REMAND for further proceedings consistent with this opinion.

As indicated by the title of this post, there are parts of the Jarkesy opinion that I like, and there are others that I do not. So herewith are what I see as the good, the bad, and the ugly parts of the opinion.

First the “good”. The Fifth Circuit’s conclusion that the statutory limitation on the removal of SEC ALJs is unconstitutional is the strongest part of the opinion. The Supreme Court has made explicit that this is an open question, and relevant Supreme Court caselaw makes the conclusion that limiting removal of SEC ALJs is unconstitutional hard to resist. In Lucia the Court concluded that SEC ALJs are “officers” under Article II (albeit inferior officers), and in Free Enterprise Fund v. PCAOB the Court held that double-for-cause removal restrictions violate Article II. From this, the Fifth Circuit’s conclusion easily follows.

The strongest counter-argument is that ALJs, unlike other inferior officers, do not exercise the sort of power that must be subject to presidential control, but this argument rests on the sort of functional analysis we have not seen in an majority opinion from the Supreme Court on appointment and removal in quite some time, and it is almost certainly a loser on the current court. On this point it is telling that the SEC hardly contests this holding in its petition for en banc review.

That “bad” part of the opinion, in my view, is the court’s holding that the SEC’s decision to adjudicate the case before an agency ALJ violated Jarkesy’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial. I say this not because I am unsympathetic to the result, but because I think the Fifth Circuit’s holding cuts against applicable Supreme Court precedent on the applicability of the Seventh Amendment to agency proceedings involving “public rights.”

As a matter of first principles, the idea that the Seventh Amendment allows the government to prosecute individuals (albeit civilly) and subject them to substantial monetary and other penalties without affording them the right to a jury seems hard to credit, and Judge Elrod’s opinion is persuasive on that point (perhaps, in no small part, because this is a subject on which she’s written at least two law review articles).

The problem is that the Supreme Court said this was okay in Atlas Roofing v. OSHRC, and the Fifth Circuit’s arguments that Atlas Roofing has been abrogated (by cases such as Granfinanciera v. Nordberg) or otherwise does not apply are thoroughly unconvincing. So while I would prefer a rule that prevents agencies from subjecting folks like Jarkesy to administrative proceedings of this sort, relevant precedent cuts the other way. And while it’s certainly possible that the Supreme Court may revisit these prior cases to prevent the violation of Seventh Amendment rights in administrative proceedings, I think it’s bad from circuit courts to effectively usurp that authority, as I think the Fifth Circuit did here.

That brings us to the “ugly”: The Fifth Circuit’s nondelegation holding. This part of the decision is almost certainly wrong, and I was quite surprised to read it. Here’s how that portion of the opinion begins:

Petitioners next argue that Congress unconstitutionally delegated
legislative power to the SEC when it gave the SEC the unfettered authority
to choose whether to bring enforcement actions in Article III courts or within
the agency. Because Congress gave the SEC a significant legislative power by failing to provide it with an intelligible principle to guide its use of the delegated power, we agree with Petitioners.

Set aside that the Supreme Court has turned away every opportunity to enforce the nondelegation doctrine in over eighty years. Assume that there are five votes on the Supreme Court to enforce the requirement that Congress articulate an “intelligible principle” when delegating what would otherwise be legislative power to agencies. Even with these concessions, this part of the opinion is still a confused mess.

Here’s the problem: The delegated power at issue is the SEC’s authority to make case-by-case decisions about how to enforce the securities laws against individual regulated entities. This is not legislative power. This is the sort of prosecutorial discretion that lies at the core of executive authority. And because this is not legislative power, no “intelligible principle” is required.

The Fifth Circuit tries to parry this objection by claiming that power is “legislative” if it has “the purpose and affect of altering the legal rights, duties and relations of persons.” But this doesn’t do the work the Fifth Circuit wants it to. Jarkesy’s rights in an Article III court and in an administrative proceeding are what they are under the Constitution and relevant statutes. The SEC did not alter these rights. It merely chose how to enforce the laws Congress enacted.

Were the Fifth Circuit correct, it would be an unconstitutional delegation of power when Congress allows agencies (or any executive official, for that matter) the choice of proceeding civilly or criminally against a regulated entity for related conduct. This choice, much like the choice between an Article III court and agency proceeding, affects what rights the defendant may raise. Among other thigs, the finder of fact may not draw a negative inference from a defendant’s invocation of the Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination in a criminal proceeding, but can in a civil proceeding. And don’t even get me started on how the Fifth Circuit’s holding would make an absolute hash of immigration enforcement.

The point here is that The Fifth Circuit makes a fundamental category error when it characterizes the power at issue — the power to choose which method of enforcement to use in a given case involving a given regulated entity — as a legislative one. It is not, and the Fifth Circuit blundered when concluding otherwise.

As noted above, the SEC has filed an en banc petition in this case, so the panel opinion may not be the last word on these questions. Stay tuned to see whether the full court opts to clean up the mistaken parts of the opinion, or whether it saves these questions for the Supreme Court.

The post The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Jarkesy v. SEC appeared first on Reason.com.

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Judge Blocks Texas Restrictions On Using P.O. Boxes For Voter Registration

Judge Blocks Texas Restrictions On Using P.O. Boxes For Voter Registration

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some 5,000 Texans who used a P.O. box as a voter registration address will likely be able to cast a ballot in the state’s midterm elections after a federal judge blocked a 2021 state election law.

A voter exits a polling location in Fort Worth, Texas, on Nov. 03, 2020. (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Senate Bill 1111 attempted to tighten residency guidelines for Texas voters, but was struck down this month by U.S. District Court Judge Lee Yeakel, an appointee under former president George W. Bush.

Yeakel, who presides over the Austin Division for the Western District of Texas, found in a summary judgement that the state used vague language in the election law and parts of it failed constitutional scrutiny.

Texas’ Attorney General Ken Paxton appealed the decision last week to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, according to State Sen. Paul Bettencourt (R-Houston), who authored the election bill.

Texas’ Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas at the Hilton Anatole Aug. 5, 2022. (Bobby Sanchez/The Epoch Times)

There is no one that can live inside a P.O. box,” Bettencourt pointed out in a statement earlier this month.

Bettencourt told The Epoch Times he was disappointed in the decision against a “common-sense voter integrity bill.”

The bill required people registering to vote with a P.O. box to show proof of address such as a driver’s license or utility bill.

Some 5,000 people were registered to vote in Harris County alone using a P.O. box in 2020, Bettencourt said.

As of this month, the number is around 4,800 because some of the records were processed before the law was blocked.

The actual number using P.O. boxes to register statewide would make the total higher, he added, saying he expects the number could climb before voter registration ends in October without the law.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (3R) signs Senate Bill 1, also known as the election integrity bill into law with others clapping and looking on in Tyler, Texas, on Sept. 7, 2021. (Marina Fatina/NTD)

The Republican-led Texas Legislature passed the bill along with others in an attempt to guard against election fraud after the 2020 election.

The lawsuit filed by the Texas chapter of the League of United Latin American Citizens and Voto Latino, a nonprofit that seeks to mobilize voters, called those requirements in SB 1111 an unnecessary burden on voters.

The Latino groups claimed voter suppression against six large counties controlled by Democrats: Travis, Bexas, Harris, Hidalgo, Dallas, and El Paso.

“This measure imposes vague, onerous restrictions on the voter registration process, chilling political participation and further burdening the abilities of lawful voters to cast their ballots and make their voices heard.” Texas LULAC state director Rodolfo Rosales said in a statement after filing the suit.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 18:55

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Apple Reportedly Shifting Apple Watch And MacBook Production To Vietnam

Apple Reportedly Shifting Apple Watch And MacBook Production To Vietnam

Wary of soaring tensions surrounding out-of-favor countries like China, multinational corporations such as Apple are diversifying production to places with less geopolitical risk.

Nikkei Asia spoke to three sources with direct knowledge of Apple’s plans to shift Watch and MacBook production out of China to Vietnam for the first time. 

Apple suppliers Luxshare Precision Industry and Foxconn have already piloted a production run of the Watch in northern Vietnam. 

The move by Apple is a further win for the Southeast Asian country as it already produces iPads and AirPods. 

Two sources told Nikkei Asia that Apple had requested suppliers to set up a MacBook test production line in Vietnam. They said progress in constructing laptop production in the country has been “slow, partly due to pandemic-related disruptions but also because notebook computer production involves a larger supply chain.”  

“AirPods, Apple Watch, HomePod and more … Apple has big plans in Vietnam, apart from iPhone manufacturing,” one of the people with direct knowledge of Apple’s plans said. “The components for MacBooks have become more modularized than in the past, which makes it easier to produce the laptops outside of China. But how to make it cost-competitive is another challenge.”

This trend is called “friendshoring.” While it’s a play on “offshoring,” this isn’t about companies moving operations back to the US and Europe, but rather seeking foreign alternatives that retain the benefit of low labor costs but with less international controversy. 

Apple’s production diversification comes as the US and China already had an increasingly adversarial relationship before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan sparked anger with Beijing. The fact is, geopolitical and trade war tensions aren’t going away anytime soon and will only push Apple further away from China. Though reshoring production to the US is unfeasible because of labor costs, maybe robotics can offset some of those costs or perhaps set up shop in Mexico, where there’s abundant cheap labor and healthy demographics. 

A recent Rabobank analysis of friendshoring showed that chief beneficiaries would include countries like Vietnam, India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt, and South Africa.

Apple’s Tim Cook appears to have learned a valuable lesson this year that high exposure of supply chains to China during Beijing’s zero-Covid policies and worsening geopolitical tensions with the West is a dangerous cocktail, and the need to diversify production in a trend dubbed friendshoring is essential for survival in a multi-polar world. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 18:30

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The Incredible Shrinking Merrick Garland

The Incredible Shrinking Merrick Garland

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in USA Today on the diminishing role of Attorney General Merrick Garland at the Justice Department after a series of controversies.

As a well-known moderate, many of us had hoped that Garland could be a unifying presence at the Department; assuring a divided nation that justice would be pursued in an even-handed and apolitical fashion.

Yet, in controversy after controversy, Garland has failed to take modest steps to make such assurances.

After well documented cases of bias and false statements by FBI and DOJ officials in past investigations, there was a clear need for greater transparency and independence in investigations. Garland has consistently swatted away such options. This week, Garland stayed on that path and refused to release any part of the affidavit used as the basis for the search of Mar-a-Lago. This included the possible issuance of a redacted copy or even responses to specific concerns over the timing or basis for the search. While Trump has called for the release of the affidavit, Garland will not even release those sections dealing with the account of the prior discussions and agreements with the Team Trump. There is little proactive effort to anticipate or address such concerns as vividly shown in the last week.

Here is the column:

In the cult classic, “The Incredible Shrinking Man,” the character Scott Stuart is caught in a thick fog that causes him to gradually shrink to the point that he lives in a doll house and fights off the house cat. At one point, Stuart delivers a strikingly profound line: “The unbelievably small and the unbelievably vast eventually meet — like the closing of a gigantic circle.”

If one image sums up the incredibly shrinking stature of Attorney General Merrick Garland, it is that line in the aftermath of the Mar-a-Lago search.

Two years ago, I was one of many who supported Garland when he was nominated for attorney general. While his personality seemed a better fit for the courts than the Cabinet, he is a person with unimpeachable integrity and ethics.

If there are now doubts, it is not about his character but his personality in dealing with political controversies. Those concerns have grown in the past week.

In the aftermath of the FBI’s search of former President Donald Trump’s home in Florida, much remains unclear. The inventory list confirms that there were documents marked TS (Top Secret) and SCI (Sensitive Compartmented Information) —two of the highest classification levels for materials. The former president’s retention of such documents would appear to be a very serious violation.

However, the status of the documents is uncertain after Trump insisted that he declassified the material and was handling the records in accordance with prior discussions with the FBI. While the declassified status of these documents would not bar charges under the cited criminal provisions, it could have a significant impact on the viability of any prosecution.

I have not assumed that the search of Mar-a-Lago was unwarranted given that we have not seen the underlying affidavit. Yet in another controversy, Garland seemed largely reactive and rote in dealing with questions over bias or abuse in his department.

In his confirmation hearing, Garland repeatedly pledged that political considerations would hold no sway with him as attorney general. Yet, in just two years, the Justice Department has careened from one political controversy to another without any sign that Garland is firmly in control of the department. Last year, for example, Garland was heavily criticized for his rapid deployment of a task force to investigate parents and others challenging school boards.

When Garland has faced clear demands for independent action, he has folded. For example, Garland has refused to appoint a special counsel in the investigation of Hunter Biden. But there is no way to investigate Hunter Biden without running over continual references to President Biden.

By refusing a special counsel, Garland has removed the president’s greatest threat. Unlike the U.S. Attorney investigating Hunter Biden, a special counsel would be expected to publish a report that would detail the scope of the Biden family’s alleged influence peddling and foreign contacts.

Likewise, the Justice Department is conducting a grand jury investigation that is aggressively pursuing Trump associates and Republican figures, including seizing the telephones of members of Congress. That investigation has bearing on the integrity and the status of Biden’s potential opponent in 2024.

The investigation also has triggered concerns over the party in power investigating the opposing political party. It is breathtaking that Garland would see no need for an independent or special counsel given this country’s continued deep divisions and mistrust.

Democrats often compare the January 6 investigation to Watergate but fail to note that the Watergate investigation was led by an independent counsel precisely because of these inherent political conflicts.

Then came the raid. While Garland said he personally approved the operation, he did little to help mitigate the inevitable political explosion. This country is a powder keg and the FBI has a documented history of false statements to courts and falsified evidence in support of a previous Trump investigation.

Yet, there was no prepared statement or response for days, which allowed speculation and rage to grow. When Garland did respond, he offered a boilerplate defense of the department and sought only the release of the warrant and inventory list.

If there was one occasion for total transparency, including the release of the FBI affidavit, this was that moment. Yet, Garland refused to act further. He declined to seek the release even as news media reported an array of leaks from the Justice Department, including the allegation that Trump took nuclear weapon secrets to Mar-a-Lago. As his department leaked like a sieve, Garland withheld the document that would set the record straight. 

The Justice Department also reportedly refused to allow a special master to review the seized material after alleged attorney-client material was taken — a move that would have addressed concerns that the search was “pretextual” to seize January 6th evidence.

Despite this record, I do not view Garland as inherently political in contrast to predecessors like Eric Holder. Garland’s judicial temperament may be ill-suited to the demands of this office.

Garland sometimes looks more like a pedestrian than a driver on decisions in his own department. Top positions were given to figures denounced as far-left advocates on issues from defunding the police to racial justice. For the moderate Garland, these did not seem like natural choices. Neither did the department’s recent controversial move to effectively circumvent a Trump pardon to prosecute a Florida nursing home operator.

And Garland has not responded to new allegations of bias at the FBI and Justice involving the downplaying of evidence involving the Hunter Biden laptop controversy.

Concerns also have been raised about the decision to appoint the special agent in charge of the FBI’s Detroit office to lead the Washington, D.C., office. The agent, Steven M. D’Antuono, led the disastrous investigation of the alleged plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Many observers viewed that case as clear entrapment and abuse by the FBI. Given the importance of the January 6 investigation, it is baffling that the Department of Justice would make this controversial transfer at this time.

An attorney general should not be motivated by optics in his decisions, but he also cannot ignore optics when they undermine the integrity of his department. The search of Mar-a-Lago was a historic raid with sweeping political implications, including on the approaching midterm elections. Garland must have known that it would be viewed by many as an “insurance policy” taken out against a Trump presidential run.

Yet, with leaks coming out of his department undermining Trump’s claims, Garland merely offered “trust us we’re the government” assurances while resisting the release of the affidavit.

When Scott Stuart faced his diminished stature, he asked, “I was continuing to shrink, to become… what? The infinitesimal? What was I?” That is a debilitating question for any person, but it is disastrous in an attorney general.

It is not that Merrick Garland is absent but that his presence often seems immaterial.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 18:05

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An Earthbound ‘Cannibal Coronal Mass Ejection’ Event Could Be Imminent

An Earthbound ‘Cannibal Coronal Mass Ejection’ Event Could Be Imminent

A minor earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) already hit Earth’s magnetic field on Wednesday. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) expects a more powerful earthbound CME to strike Thursday-Friday. 

SWPC has already issued geomagnetic storm watches for a minor geomagnetic storm today, a strong geomagnetic storm on Thursday, and a moderate one on Friday.

The impacts will be insignificant now, but that could change tomorrow as a strong geomagnetic storm can spark power grid fluctuations, create satellite irregularities, and degrade radio and GPS signals. SWPC’s storm severity scale is 1-5. 

A visual of the CME impacts on modern society. 

Here’s more from spaceweather

On Aug. 14th, a dark plasma eruption hurled one CME toward Earth. On Aug. 15th, an exploding magnetic filament launched another CME right behind it. The two CMEs will arrive together on Aug.18th, according to the latest forecast model from NOAA:

This could be a “Cannibal CME” event. In other words, the second CME might overtake and gobble up the first, creating a mish-mash of the two. Cannibal CMEs contain tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that sometimes spark strong geomagnetic storms.

Geomagnetic Storms will be visible to the naked eye in the US as far as Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50 degrees).

The sun is in a very active 11-year solar cycle called Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019.

The solar cycle peak is expected in 2025, but even before that, its presence will be felt on and around Earth via CMEs disrupting modern life

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 17:40

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Many Casualties After Bombing Targets Taliban Mosque In Kabul

Many Casualties After Bombing Targets Taliban Mosque In Kabul

On Wednesday a large blast ripped through a centrally located mosque during evening prayers in the Afghan capital of Kabul, with a huge casualty count feared. One or more suicide bombers were reportedly behind the attack.

Within the initial hours following the explosion, at least 10 have been reported dead, including a prominent cleric, according to regional reports. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, ISIS-K has recently stepped up bombings against Taliban targets over the summer, and now reaching a year after the final US military exit from the war-torn country.

CNN cited a top health official for Afghanistan who said, “Following today’s explosion, we admitted 27 patients to our Surgical Centre for War Victims in Kabul, including five minors, one of them a seven-year-old boy.” The official noted that “Two patients arrived dead, one died in the emergency room.”

Underscoring the growing seriousness and frequency of ISIS-K terror attacks, the official described multiple mass casualty events this month alone:

In the month of August alone, we managed six mass casualties in our hospital, with a total of almost 80 patients. Throughout the year, we have continued to receive gunshot injuries, shrapnel injuries, stabbing injuries, and victims of mine and IED explosions on a daily basis. The country is suffering the consequences of a very long conflict that has undermined its future.”

With emergency crews and police still on the scene, Taliban’s deputy spokesman Bilal Karimi vowed vengeance for the attack. “The murderers of civilians and perpetrators of similar crimes will soon be caught and punished for their actions, God willing,” he said in a statement.

ABC News reports of some of the details which emerged late in the day:

According to the eyewitness, a resident of the city’s Kher Khanna neighborhood where the Siddiquiya Mosque was targeted, the explosion was carried out by a suicide bomber. The slain cleric was Mullah Amir Mohammad Kabuli, the eyewitness said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

He added that more than 30 other people were wounded. The Italian Emergency hospital in Kabul said that at least 27 wounded civilians, including five children, were brought there from the site of the bomb blast.

The casualty count is expected to mount, given a police spokesman said of the blast’s high casualties, “the numbers are not clear yet.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 17:30

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Is A Chinese Devaluation Imminent?

Is A Chinese Devaluation Imminent?

Authored by Steven Vannelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

Over the weekend, we got a slew of data showing a generally weak economy. Below are the actual data compared with the expectations from Bloomberg.

Of course, the headline grabber was the -31.4% drop in residential property sales, but across the board, from industrial production to retail sales to investment came in shy of estimates.

This makes it incredibly unlikely that China is going to hit its growth target this year when all the components are running below estimates. Retail sales are currently running 0.5% behind calendar year estimates, while industrial production is running 0.7% behind and fixed asset investment is 0.3% behind.

Really the only thing working in China right now is exports.

While it is leading to a growing trade surplus.

And, exports are again growing as a percent of GDP.

Despite the clear evidence of weak economic growth, China is not launching a huge stimulus program like it did after the Great Financial Crisis.

Instead they are tinkering around the edges. For example, yesterday China cut the medium-term lending facility by a token 10bps. They cut the 7-day repurchase rate by 10bps too.

And, they are preparing the banking system for a more difficult liquidity environment by dropping the required reserve ratio.

This last chart leads us to the real variable of interest: the CNY level. It looks like the Chinese Yuan is about to break out on the downside.

Looking at interest rate differentials with the US illustrates this point well. For short rates, I compare the upper bound of the US fed funds to overnight SHIBOR. This relationship suggests a CNY with a 7-handle.

Next, looking at medium-term rates, the picture is the same.

And finally, longer-term rates tell the same story.

China’s export dependence and falling global growth expectations are one more reason to expect a weaker CNY.

A weaker CNY will be a tailwind for lower inflation in the US. If the CNY exceeds 7.0, this should correspond to 10-year breakeven inflation around 1%.

With inflation in the US already coming down, a further weakening of the CNY will simply accelerate that process, taking the heat off the Fed to raise rates well into restrictive territory.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/17/2022 – 17:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/P4K2VOT Tyler Durden