What If We Tried Anarchy? HBO’s The Anarchists Explores.


ANARCHISTS_YT

What happens when a bunch of radical individualists try to start a community?

That’s the subject of The Anarchists, a new six-part docuseries from director Todd Schramke and his wife and co-producer Kim Kylland that’s now available to stream in full on HBO Max.

The pair spent six years documenting Anarchapulco, an annual conference for anarchists started in Mexico by Jeff Berwick, a political commentator who calls himself the Dollar Vigilante.

The series took a dark turn when, mid-production, Schramke found out about the murder of one of his subjects, a man who called himself John Galton. And then rumors started that other members of the anarchist community may have been involved.

“It really was one of the most emotionally complicated few weeks of my life,” says Schramke. “It was just this really, really intense feeling of knowing this was going to change my life in so many ways.”

Reason‘s Zach Weissmueller talked with Schramke about how making the film has shaped his view of anarchism and libertarianism and what the story of Anarchapulco can teach us about the challenges of launching new experiments in alternative living.

“The biggest thing I took away was realizing that regardless of what ideologies we hold, what belief systems we ascribe to, no matter what we have to be looking inward as people and figuring out how to deal with our own mental health, dealing with our own relationships before we can have an improved society,” says Schramke.

Watch the full interview above.

Produced by Zach Weissmueller; edited by Danielle Thompson and Weissmueller; additional footage courtesy of HBO Max. 

Music: “Corner of the Eyes” by Amulets via Artlist; “Dark Matter” by Notize via Artlist.

The post What If We Tried Anarchy? HBO's <em>The Anarchists</em> Explores. appeared first on Reason.com.

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A Cop Rear-Ended a Car, Sending a Toddler to the Hospital. The Car’s Driver Was Breathalyzed. The Cop Wasn’t.


Suffolk County Long Island police officer David Mascarella

A damning report suggests Long Island cops may have covered up drunk driving by one of their own after an off-duty officer crashed into a car carrying a man and his two children. One of the children was left with injuries that he’s still recovering from two years later. The officer, David Mascarella, was never charged.

The crash took place in August 2020, when a Ram truck driven by Mascarella rear-ended a Mitsubishi car driven by Kevin Cavooris. Mascarella—who was reportedly driving at a speed of more than 50 miles per hour—crashed into the car as Cavooris slowed down to make a turn.

“A witness reported to police that Mascarella had driven erratically for approximately a mile-and-a-half before the collision,” according to Newsday. “The police accident report and crime scene diagram reflected no evidence that he braked before the pickup slammed into the Mitsubishi.”

Cavooris’ two sons, Bastian and Riordan, were in car seats in the back seat. The crash fractured the skull of Riordan, then 2 years old, while leaving his then-4-year-old brother with bruises all over his body and his dad with a broken nose. Riordan still wears a leg brace to walk and cannot run or jump, the family said.

Seeking answers about the crash, the Cavooris family filed a Freedom of Information request with the Suffolk County Police Department (SCPD), forcing the department to hand over video recordings and all sorts of police documents related to the crash. The family shared this evidence with Newsday, which reports at length on their suspicious contents:

Mascarella was assigned to the Fourth Precinct in Smithtown. Fellow precinct officers and a sergeant responded to the crash and handled the initial investigation. A deputy inspector later took command. Newsday determined that:

• Sgt. Lawrence McQuade and precinct officers failed at the scene to ask Mascarella to submit to a breath test that would have provided a preliminary reading of whether he was intoxicated.

• After a detective told McQuade that he wanted Mascarella to undergo a preliminary breath test, McQuade notified a Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association delegate. The delegate, Officer Joseph Russo, then drove Mascarella away from investigators, McQuade reported.

• Ordered to catch up with Mascarella, Fourth Precinct Officer Kevin Wustenhoff falsely reported to a supervisor that he had given Mascarella the breath test and that Mascarella had passed it, according to a law enforcement source with knowledge of the case. Wustenhoff retracted the account, the source said.

• Three hours after the crash, Deputy Insp. Mark Fisher asked Mascarella to take the breath test. Mascarella refused. When a driver refuses a preliminary breath test, police typically seek a warrant to have the driver’s blood drawn and tested for alcohol. Fisher only issued a traffic ticket to Mascarella.

• Police failed to notify the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office on the night of the crash that an officer had been involved in an unexplained, high-speed rear-end crash, had seriously injured a 2-year-old and had refused a breath test. The omission prevented the DA from considering whether to seek a warrant to test Mascarella’s blood.

• Although five officers wrote reports stating they saw no evidence that Mascarella was intoxicated, prosecutors under then-DA Tim Sini subsequently investigated the crash with an eye toward charging Mascarella with vehicular assault. Lacking a blood test that would have revealed whether Mascarella was intoxicated, they closed the investigation without action.

Suffolk County District Attorney Ray Tierney (who was not in office at the time of the crash) told Newsday that “because certain evidence was not collected by SCPD on the date of the incident, we were unable to make a determination as to whether or not a crime was committed.”

Video shows Mascarella throwing something from his truck window after the crash, but there’s no indication that this was investigated, either.

Cavooris, however, was asked to take a breath test for alcohol. It registered that he had not been drinking.

Mascarella is still employed by the SCPD, though he has been suspended without pay since February and a police spokesperson told Newsday that the police commissioner is moving to fire him.

Wustenhoff, the officer who falsely reported that Mascarella had been given a breathalyzer test, was suspended without pay for 45 days and then placed on administrative duties. In three years, he’ll be eligible to retire with a 50 percent pension, and a source told Newday that as part of the discipline Wustenhoff agreed to retire then.

The disciplinary action comes only after Newsday started poking around into local police accountability for causing injuries and deaths:

In December last year, Newsday began to publish case histories documenting that the internal affairs systems of the Nassau and Suffolk County police departments had imposed little or no discipline on officers in cases involving serious civilian injuries or deaths. This is the sixth case history.

The Nassau County Police Department has claimed continuing power to withhold almost all internal disciplinary records. The Suffolk County Police Department has released records only in cases where charges had been upheld against officers.

Newsday is pressing lawsuits against both departments with the goal of establishing that the public has a right to review how Long Island’s police forces police themselves.

You can read some of the previous investigations here, here, here, and here.


FREE MINDS

Former Twitter executive warns of company’s security practices. Peiter Zatko filed several whistleblower reports related to Twitter’s security practices, bots, and the handling of misinformation. Zatko—also known as Mudge—was fired from the company in January. In a post at Techdirt, Mike Masnick weighs Zatko’s claims:

Throughout the whistleblowing report, Mudge highlights many, many problems with Twitter’s infrastructure, and some of the security and uptime risk it created. Much of what Mudge reports on this is… quite believable — especially for anyone who has followed Twitter over the years. It’s also, frankly, not all that different than many internet companies that experienced rapid scaling in the last decade and a half. Outside of the biggest tech companies (Google, Meta/Facebook, Amazon, and Apple — each of which I guarantee has their own security issues, though often of a different nature, and each of which has a much more developed security process), I would guess most of what’s in Mudge’s report rings true at basically every other decently large internet company.

That’s not an excuse, and one hopes that whistleblowing like this gets more of these companies to recognize that they need better processes and security in place. …

That said, some former Twitter engineers who worked with Mudge seem to be calling into question some of these claims.

Masnick gets into much more detail about the claims (and counterclaims)—including those involving foreign governments—here.


FREE MARKETS

A win for vaping companies in court. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit has handed a preliminary win to six vaping product makers who say the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was too hasty in denying them a marketing order. A marketing order is essentially an FDA permission slip “to legally market a new tobacco product in the United States.” Six companies—Diamond Vapor LLC, Johnny Copper LLC, Vapor Unlimited LLC, and Union Street Brands LLC—challenged the FDA’s denial of such an order for e-liquids meant for open-tank vaping devices.

These tobacco companies submitted survey information from their customers about smoking cessation, literature reviews, scientific studies about switching to e-cigarettes, smoking cessation, and the role of flavors, and details about its marketing and
youth-access-prevention plans,” notes the court in its opinion. “For example, Diamond uses technology for its online sales that relies on public records to verify a purchaser’s age.

But the FDA “refused to consider the marketing and sales-access-restriction plans based on both its need for efficiency and its experience that marketing and sales-access restrictions do not sufficiently reduce youth use of electronic nicotine products,” the court points out. The agency “failed to consider the relevant marketing and sales-access-restrictions plans, the marketing denial orders were arbitrary and capricious,” the court found. “So, we grant the petitions for review, set aside the marketing denial orders, and remand to the Administration.”

You can read the full decision here.


QUICK HITS

A congressional report suggests that not all UFOs are man-made.

• A dad took naked photos of his toddler to send to a pediatrician for diagnostic purposes. Google flagged him as a criminal.

• An elementary school principal in the Bay Area called the cops on a 4-year-old who wasn’t wearing a mask, to remove him and his father from school premises.

• “The Los Angeles City Council has voted unanimously to place on the March 2024 ballot a measure that would require hotels to accept the placement of homeless persons in vacant rooms,” notes Walter Olson at the Cato Institute. “The measure would ‘require hotels to report the number of vacant rooms’ to the city each afternoon for this purpose.”

• A court has convicted two people accused of plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. “The first time federal prosecutors tried to convince a jury that a group of men plotted to kidnap Michigan’s Democratic governor, they failed to get a single conviction,” notes The New York Times. “But on Tuesday, jurors in a second trial found the two remaining defendants guilty.”

• A bill in California “would also create a means to hold companies like McDonald’s and Pizza Hut legally responsible for any labor violations at individual stores, even if those individual stores are owned by franchisees,” Vox reports.

• Charlie Crist, now a Democrat (but formerly served as governor of Florida as a Republican), will face off against current Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the fall:

The post A Cop Rear-Ended a Car, Sending a Toddler to the Hospital. The Car's Driver Was Breathalyzed. The Cop Wasn't. appeared first on Reason.com.

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Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Kicks Into High Gear In September

Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Kicks Into High Gear In September

The Fed began shrinking its balance sheet in June (at a pace which for various reasons many have found to be too slow but in reality is just as fast as had been expected, as we will explain tomorrow) and plans to double the pace at which it reduces its securities portfolio in September. And while there are ample reserves and liquidity for now, many prominent Wall Street strategists have warned that the Fed will have no choice but to end its QT much earlier than expected.

Some more details on the recent trajectory of QT, courtesy of SocGen’s Stephen Gallagher:

Fed to roll off as much as $95bn per month from September. The Fed allowed $30bn of Treasury and $17.5bn of mortgage-backed holdings to mature in June. In September, the Fed will double that amount, increasing the caps or run-off amounts to $60bn per month for Treasuries and $35bn per month for mortgage-backed securities. The impact on yields, if any, has been overshadowed by macroeconomic concerns and volatile rate-strategy expectations. For now, the primary channel for monetary policy remains the fed funds rate.

2019 taught us that the Fed needs to maintain a flexible approach to its balance sheet policy. The size and pace of shrinkage should be tied to both economic performance and to controlling short-term rates that are intricately tied to its fed funds rate policy, such as repo rates for secured overnight lending.

Fed balance sheet liquidity for financial institutions at $5.5tn. In 2017-2019, the Fed’s balance sheet run-off shrank bank reserves held at the Fed from a peak of $2.36tn to $1.39tn in September 2019 when repo markets turned disorderly and broke out of the Fed’s desired rate corridor. Today, the Fed has over $5.5tn in reserves including $3.3tn of bank reserves held at the Fed and $2.2tn in the Fed’s overnight reverse repo programme that was created during the most recent expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.

Consensus foresees slightly more than $2tn in balance sheet reduction: the Fed is expected to sustain its $60bn per month reduction of Treasury holdings until the end of 2023. After that, the pace of reduction may slow and cease by spring 2024. The Fed may independently sustain reductions of its MBS portfolio throughout 2024. Eventually, the Fed will need to buy Treasuries again to offset the reduction: the $64 trillion question is when.

The bank reserves and reverse repo program together need to shrink by more than $2tn in order to achieve total balance sheet reduction of $2tn, reduction which would lift the effective fed funds rate back toward the Fed’s interest on reserves (IOR). If it continued to rise far above the IOR, the Fed’s standing repo facility would be activated and balance sheet reduction might be reversed, as in 2019. The sensitivity of rates to the volume of reserves in the system is lower (flatter curve) than in the 2017-19 episode. Two factors likely account for this: the substantially larger size of the balance sheet and the introduction of the reverse repo platform.

Items to monitor

  1. Economic performance: this is linked more to rates but also the total size of the balance sheet. Weaker economic performance would first bring a halt to rate hikes, but then could slow or end balance sheet reduction.
  2. Overnight rates moving outside the Fed’s corridor: the Fed wants to exert strong control over rates through its setting of the interest on reserves (IOR), the fed feds rate and repo rates. Abrupt changes could prompt adjustments in the IOR relative to the fed funds rate target and possible changes to the balance sheet policy if market rates become more volatile.
  3. Relative holdings and specific liquidity issues: there is a concern about illiquidity in the Treasury and mortgage markets that could prompt changes in the Fed’s balance sheet strategy. Specifically, the Fed has raised the possibility of outright selling of mortgage-backed securities. The reason is that prepayments or maturities of these securities are largely determined by the borrower. Reducing its holdings by allowing maturities or pre-paid debt without rolling over might be slower than desired. Additionally, over time the Fed wants its portfolio of securities to be primarily Treasury holdings. We do not expect changes in its current roll-off strategy but are monitoring this. In 2024, we expect the Fed to initially slow the reduction of its Treasury holdings before halting the reductions. Eventually, the Fed should buy Treasury securities to offset reductions of the MBS holdings.

Lessons from earlier QT

From January 2018 until September 2019, the Fed reduced its total assets by just $600BN from $4.4tn to $3.8tn, at which point the repo market broke. As QT progressed, upward pressure on overnight rates moved EFF and SOFR above their floors. By September 2019, reserves amounted to $1.4tn. Demand for ON RRP borrowing was near zero: the upward spike in SOFR demonstrated reserves were clearly not ample at this level. The Fed reversed course and expanded its balance sheet by lending in the repo market to set a ceiling on rates, and launched NOT QE, which was of course, QE. The floor system was back to a corridor.

The vertical lines in charts 2 & 3 show the current level of reserves + ON RRP borrowing and SocGen’s forecast of the level at the end of 2023 if the Fed implements its plans to draw down the SOMA. The level of reserves + ON RRP also depends on the movements of the other large Fed liabilities (currency in circulation and the Treasury general account). As the Fed nears its terminal target rate, expect the ratio of reserves to ON RRP to rise. Can the Fed implement its proposed balance sheet reduction while maintaining enough reserves to control overnight rates? The answer is probably not for reasons explained by BofA’s Marc Cabana.

The level of reserves + ON RRP at the end of 2023 is projected to be $3.7tn. This is well above the levels at which rates started to become unmoored in 2019 (around $1.7tn). If the demand curve for overnight lending remains the same as in 2019, the Fed should have no problem controlling its target rates while reducing its balance sheet until 2023. Then, as the SOMA drawdown continues into 2024 and 2025, reserves will draw closer to the problematic 2019 levels.

However, in a world of “all else equal” nothing ever is, and we know the demand curve for overnight lending is not stable over time, and it may and will shift for many reasons. For example, more restrictive liquidity and capital regulations can drive demand higher. The Fed regularly surveys banks and puts a lot of work into estimating the necessary level of reserves. Nevertheless, the Fed did not foresee that it would have to reverse QT in 2019 at a level of reserves far above pre-2008 levels. If demand for reserves going forward is higher than in 2019, the Fed will have to halt QT sooner than expected to maintain control of overnight rates. More on this premature end to QE in a subsequent post.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 09:45

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Are Iran And Russia Moving To Create A Global Natural Gas Cartel?

Are Iran And Russia Moving To Create A Global Natural Gas Cartel?

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

  • Russia and Iran are building the foundation for a potential natural gas cartel.

  • The Russia-Iran alliance aims to control as much of the two key elements in the global supply matrix as possible.

  •  “Gas is widely seen as the optimal product in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, so controlling as much of the global flow of that will be the key to energy-based power over the next ten to twenty years”, according to a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry.

The US$40 billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed last month between Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is a stepping stone to enabling Russia and Iran to implement their long-held plan to be the core participants in a global cartel for gas suppliers in the same mold as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for oil suppliers. With a foundation in the current Gulf Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), this ‘Gas OPEC’ would allow for the coordination of an extraordinary proportion of the world’s gas reserves and control over gas prices in the coming years. Occupying the number one and number two positions in the world’s largest gas reserves table, respectively – Russia with just under 48 trillion cubic meters (tcm) and Iran with nearly 34 tcm – the two countries are in an ideal position to do this.  

The Russia-Iran alliance, as evidenced in the most recent multi-faceted MoU between Gazprom and the NIOC, wants to control as much of the two key elements in the global supply matrix – gas supplied over land via pipelines and gas supplied via ships in liquefied natural gas (LNG) – as possible. According to a statement last week from Hamid Hosseini, chairman of Iran’s Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, in Tehran, after the Gazprom-NIOC MoU had been signed: “Now the Russians have come to the conclusion that the consumption of gas in the world will increase and the tendency towards consumption of LNG has increased and they alone are not able to meet the world’s demand, so there is no room left for gas competition [between Russia and Iran].” He added: “The winner of the Russia-Ukraine war is the United States, and it will capture the European market, so if Iran and Russia can reduce the influence of the United States in the oil, gas and product markets by working together, it will benefit both countries.”

The Gazprom-NIOC MoU, as initially analyzed by OilPrice.com, contains four key elements that are geared towards the build-out of a ‘Gas OPEC’.

  • One element is that the Russian state-backed gas giant has pledged its full assistance to the NIOC in the US$10 billion development of the Kish and North Pars gas fields with a view to the two fields producing more than 10 million cubic meters of gas per day.

  • A second element is that Gazprom will also fully assist with a US$15 billion project to increase pressure in the supergiant South Pars gas field on the maritime border between Iran and Qatar.

  • A third element is that Gazprom will provide full assistance in the completion of various liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and the construction of gas export pipelines.

  • The fourth element is that Russia will examine all opportunities to encourage other major gas powers in the Middle East to join in the gradual roll-out of the ‘Gas OPEC’ cartel, according to a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry.  “Gas is widely seen as the optimal product in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, so controlling as much of the global flow of that will be the key to energy-based power over the next ten to twenty years, as has already been seen on a smaller scale in Russia’s hold over Europe through its gas supplies,” he added. 

From a top-down perspective, the Russia-Iran alliance is focused on drawing in the overt or covert support for the Gas OPEC construct from other major producers in the Middle East regarded as undecided in committing to the Russia-Iran-China axis or to the U.S.-Europe-Japan axis. Qatar (with the world’s third-largest gas reserves of just under 24 tcm, and the top LNG supplier) has long been seen by Russia and Iran as a prime candidate for such a gas cartel, given that it shares the principal source of its ongoing prosperity with Iran in the shape of the 9,700 square kilometres (sq.km) reservoir that holds at least a combined 51 tcm of gas and 50 billion barrels of natural condensates. Iran has exclusive rights over 3,700 sq.km of this reservoir in its celebrated South Pars field (containing around 14 tcm of gas), with Qatar’s North Field comprising the remaining 6,000 sq.km (and 37 tcm of gas). 

A new cooperation accord was reached between Tehran and Doha in 2017 on the shared reservoir and beyond, as analyzed in depth in my latest book on the global oil markets. Since then, Qatar has overtly tried to avoid alienating either of the major two geopolitical power blocs. At the beginning of this year of Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, visited the White House, and in March he met with German economy minister, Robert Habeck, the latter visit being to discuss how Qatar could help alleviate bans on Russian gas into Europe. Prior to these visits, though, Qatar concluded a slew of long-term LNG supply deals with China that caused considerable concern in Washington (hence the visit of Al Thani to the U.S. in January). 

Over and above the need for a good relationship between Qatar and Iran to ensure the optimal functioning of their huge joint gas reservoir, Russia and Iran see another area of particular vulnerability in Doha’s political makeup that can be exploited in the building out of a Gas OPEC, and that is its dislike for its other neighbor, Saudi Arabia. The blockade of Qatar from 2017 to 2021 was orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and actively endorsed by the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt initially, with later support coming from Jordan, Libya, and other smaller states. It has never been forgotten by Qatar, and nor has the support that was given to Doha during the period by Iran, and by Russia, both independently and via Turkey.

Together, Russia, Iran, and Qatar account for just under 60 percent of the world’s gas reserves, and they were the three countries instrumental in the founding of the GECF, whose 11 members control over 71 percent of global gas reserves, 44 percent of its marketed production, 53 percent of its gas pipelines, and 57 percent of its LNG exports. Its long-term mission statement agreed upon in Moscow, is to: ‘Enhance the role of GECF in the global energy scene in order to support the sovereign rights of Member Countries over their natural gas resources, to maximize their value for the benefit of their people, and to promote their coordination on global energy developments with a view to contributing to global sustainable development and energy security’.

There have long been statements on plans to enhance the depth of cooperation between GECF members to the degree that it becomes as powerful in the gas market as OPEC once was (before the 2014-2016 Oil Price War was instigated against the U.S. shale oil sector and lost by Saudi Arabia). As far back as October 2008, high-level figures from Russia, Iran, and Qatar met in Tehran to discuss trilateral cooperation and the possibility of forming a cartel of gas-exporting countries similar to OPEC. A key part of the reason why the idea has not been fully realized has been the unwillingness on the part of Qatar to firmly align itself to the Russia-Iran alliance, which means that the swing supply part of the gas supply matrix – LNG – had remained outside the control Moscow and Tehran. It is true that Iran has sufficient gas resources to eventually become an LNG superpower, and part of the Gazprom-NIOC deal is geared towards making that happen, but it is also true that this is a medium- to long-term project.

Shorter-term, though, there are signs that Qatar’s reticence to commit to Gas OPEC may be ebbing away. The critical feature of Doha’s economic plans is for it to stay as the number one exporter of LNG in the world, having lost that spot for a period relatively recently, and in this context, the long-term deals with China are enormously important to it. The early notable example – that set a template for subsequent deals – was the long-term purchase and sales agreement by the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) and Qatar Petroleum for 2 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG for a term of 10 years. Following these early deals with China, Qatar signed LNG supply agreements with Iranian (and Chinese and Russian) ally, Pakistan – specifically, a 10-year sale and purchase agreement for Qatar Petroleum to supply the Pakistan State Oil Company with up to 3 mtpa of LNG to various ports in the country. This agreement builds on the earlier deal signed in 2016 for Qatar to supply Pakistan with 3.75 mtpa of LNG and came at around the same time as close Pakistan ally, Bangladesh, made a similar deal with Qatar. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 09:25

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In Stunning Post-Fukushima Shift, Japan Revisits Nuclear Power As Global Energy Turmoil Worsens

In Stunning Post-Fukushima Shift, Japan Revisits Nuclear Power As Global Energy Turmoil Worsens

Following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, nuclear power fell out of favor in Japan. But with global energy markets in turmoil and electricity bills skyrocketing, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is revisiting the debate over nuclear and perhaps the need to increase investments in next-generation power plants.

FT reported Kishida had announced plans to examine the construction of new plants that would break more than a decade of energy policy following the Fukushima disaster, which led to an effort to eliminate nuclear. 

More recently, however, the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted global energy markets has forced Tokyo to reconsider nuclear because most of its energy needs are imported, with at least 9% of LNG from Russia. 

Kishida said energy officials would draw up concrete plans for future nuclear power plant projects by the end of this year. He also instructed officials to consider extending the lifespan of existing reactors beyond the current maximum lifespan of six decades. 

Japan’s energy policy is coming out of a decade of paralysis. The prime minister announced the restart of some plants to ensure grid stability earlier this year. 

… and here’s where the ears of uranium bulls perk up:

“Nuclear power and renewables are essential to proceed with a green transformation,” Kishida said. “Russia’s invasion changed the global energy situation.”

Since December 2020, we have recommended Uranium stocks because nuclear will sooner or later be accepted as one of the most stable “clean energy” sources of power in the green energy push. Unlike solar, wind, and hydro, which the world is figuring out this year, these renewable power sources aren’t as stable as previously thought. Nuclear will be the big winner in the decades ahead to decarbonize grids worldwide. 

Shares of uranium stocks from Cameco Corp. to Denison Mines Corp. are rising in US premarket trading on the news. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) jumped as much as 4.5% in premarket. 

There’s a reason why Asia is rapidly building nuclear power plants: because it’s the future of decarbonized power grids. 

Infographic: Asia's Going Nuclear | Statista

Here are the countries that are most reliant on nuclear power

Infographic: The Countries Reliant On Nuclear Power | Statista

Environmental Advocate Michael Shellenberger recently noted in a piece called “Nations Go Nuclear As Prices Spike & Renewables Fail” that nuclear is one of the “safest ways to make reliable power.” 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 09:05

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A Cop Rear-Ended a Car, Sending a Toddler to the Hospital. The Car’s Driver Was Breathalyzed. The Cop Wasn’t.


Suffolk County Long Island police officer David Mascarella

A damning report suggests Long Island cops may have covered up drunk driving by one of their own after an off-duty officer crashed into a car carrying a man and his two children. One of the children was left with injuries that he’s still recovering from two years later. The officer, David Mascarella, was never charged.

The crash took place in August 2020, when a Ram truck driven by Mascarella rear-ended a Mitsubishi car driven by Kevin Cavooris. Mascarella—who was reportedly driving at a speed of more than 50 miles per hour—crashed into the car as Cavooris slowed down to make a turn.

“A witness reported to police that Mascarella had driven erratically for approximately a mile-and-a-half before the collision,” according to Newsday. “The police accident report and crime scene diagram reflected no evidence that he braked before the pickup slammed into the Mitsubishi.”

Cavooris’ two sons, Bastian and Riordan, were in car seats in the back seat. The crash fractured the skull of Riordan, then 2 years old, while leaving his then-4-year-old brother with bruises all over his body and his dad with a broken nose. Riordan still wears a leg brace to walk and cannot run or jump, the family said.

Seeking answers about the crash, the Cavooris family filed a Freedom of Information request with the Suffolk County Police Department (SCPD), forcing the department to hand over video recordings and all sorts of police documents related to the crash. The family shared this evidence with Newsday, which reports at length on their suspicious contents:

Mascarella was assigned to the Fourth Precinct in Smithtown. Fellow precinct officers and a sergeant responded to the crash and handled the initial investigation. A deputy inspector later took command. Newsday determined that:

• Sgt. Lawrence McQuade and precinct officers failed at the scene to ask Mascarella to submit to a breath test that would have provided a preliminary reading of whether he was intoxicated.

• After a detective told McQuade that he wanted Mascarella to undergo a preliminary breath test, McQuade notified a Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association delegate. The delegate, Officer Joseph Russo, then drove Mascarella away from investigators, McQuade reported.

• Ordered to catch up with Mascarella, Fourth Precinct Officer Kevin Wustenhoff falsely reported to a supervisor that he had given Mascarella the breath test and that Mascarella had passed it, according to a law enforcement source with knowledge of the case. Wustenhoff retracted the account, the source said.

• Three hours after the crash, Deputy Insp. Mark Fisher asked Mascarella to take the breath test. Mascarella refused. When a driver refuses a preliminary breath test, police typically seek a warrant to have the driver’s blood drawn and tested for alcohol. Fisher only issued a traffic ticket to Mascarella.

• Police failed to notify the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office on the night of the crash that an officer had been involved in an unexplained, high-speed rear-end crash, had seriously injured a 2-year-old and had refused a breath test. The omission prevented the DA from considering whether to seek a warrant to test Mascarella’s blood.

• Although five officers wrote reports stating they saw no evidence that Mascarella was intoxicated, prosecutors under then-DA Tim Sini subsequently investigated the crash with an eye toward charging Mascarella with vehicular assault. Lacking a blood test that would have revealed whether Mascarella was intoxicated, they closed the investigation without action.

Suffolk County District Attorney Ray Tierney (who was not in office at the time of the crash) told Newsday that “because certain evidence was not collected by SCPD on the date of the incident, we were unable to make a determination as to whether or not a crime was committed.”

Video shows Mascarella throwing something from his truck window after the crash, but there’s no indication that this was investigated, either.

Cavooris, however, was asked to take a breath test for alcohol. It registered that he had not been drinking.

Mascarella is still employed by the SCPD, though he has been suspended without pay since February and a police spokesperson told Newsday that the police commissioner is moving to fire him.

Wustenhoff, the officer who falsely reported that Mascarella had been given a breathalyzer test, was suspended without pay for 45 days and then placed on administrative duties. In three years, he’ll be eligible to retire with a 50 percent pension, and a source told Newday that as part of the discipline Wustenhoff agreed to retire then.

The disciplinary action comes only after Newsday started poking around into local police accountability for causing injuries and deaths:

In December last year, Newsday began to publish case histories documenting that the internal affairs systems of the Nassau and Suffolk County police departments had imposed little or no discipline on officers in cases involving serious civilian injuries or deaths. This is the sixth case history.

The Nassau County Police Department has claimed continuing power to withhold almost all internal disciplinary records. The Suffolk County Police Department has released records only in cases where charges had been upheld against officers.

Newsday is pressing lawsuits against both departments with the goal of establishing that the public has a right to review how Long Island’s police forces police themselves.

You can read some of the previous investigations here, here, here, and here.


FREE MINDS

Former Twitter executive warns of company’s security practices. Peiter Zatko filed several whistleblower reports related to Twitter’s security practices, bots, and the handling of misinformation. Zatko—also known as Mudge—was fired from the company in January. In a post at Techdirt, Mike Masnick weighs Zatko’s claims:

Throughout the whistleblowing report, Mudge highlights many, many problems with Twitter’s infrastructure, and some of the security and uptime risk it created. Much of what Mudge reports on this is… quite believable — especially for anyone who has followed Twitter over the years. It’s also, frankly, not all that different than many internet companies that experienced rapid scaling in the last decade and a half. Outside of the biggest tech companies (Google, Meta/Facebook, Amazon, and Apple — each of which I guarantee has their own security issues, though often of a different nature, and each of which has a much more developed security process), I would guess most of what’s in Mudge’s report rings true at basically every other decently large internet company.

That’s not an excuse, and one hopes that whistleblowing like this gets more of these companies to recognize that they need better processes and security in place. …

That said, some former Twitter engineers who worked with Mudge seem to be calling into question some of these claims.

Masnick gets into much more detail about the claims (and counterclaims)—including those involving foreign governments—here.


FREE MARKETS

A win for vaping companies in court. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit has handed a preliminary win to six vaping product makers who say the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was too hasty in denying them a marketing order. A marketing order is essentially an FDA permission slip “to legally market a new tobacco product in the United States.” Six companies—Diamond Vapor LLC, Johnny Copper LLC, Vapor Unlimited LLC, and Union Street Brands LLC—challenged the FDA’s denial of such an order for e-liquids meant for open-tank vaping devices.

These tobacco companies submitted survey information from their customers about smoking cessation, literature reviews, scientific studies about switching to e-cigarettes, smoking cessation, and the role of flavors, and details about its marketing and
youth-access-prevention plans,” notes the court in its opinion. “For example, Diamond uses technology for its online sales that relies on public records to verify a purchaser’s age.

But the FDA “refused to consider the marketing and sales-access-restriction plans based on both its need for efficiency and its experience that marketing and sales-access restrictions do not sufficiently reduce youth use of electronic nicotine products,” the court points out. The agency “failed to consider the relevant marketing and sales-access-restrictions plans, the marketing denial orders were arbitrary and capricious,” the court found. “So, we grant the petitions for review, set aside the marketing denial orders, and remand to the Administration.”

You can read the full decision here.


QUICK HITS

A congressional report suggests that not all UFOs are man-made.

• A dad took naked photos of his toddler to send to a pediatrician for diagnostic purposes. Google flagged him as a criminal.

• An elementary school principal in the Bay Area called the cops on a 4-year-old who wasn’t wearing a mask, to remove him and his father from school premises.

• “The Los Angeles City Council has voted unanimously to place on the March 2024 ballot a measure that would require hotels to accept the placement of homeless persons in vacant rooms,” notes Walter Olson at the Cato Institute. “The measure would ‘require hotels to report the number of vacant rooms’ to the city each afternoon for this purpose.”

• A court has convicted two people accused of plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. “The first time federal prosecutors tried to convince a jury that a group of men plotted to kidnap Michigan’s Democratic governor, they failed to get a single conviction,” notes The New York Times. “But on Tuesday, jurors in a second trial found the two remaining defendants guilty.”

• A bill in California “would also create a means to hold companies like McDonald’s and Pizza Hut legally responsible for any labor violations at individual stores, even if those individual stores are owned by franchisees,” Vox reports.

• Charlie Crist, now a Democrat (but formerly served as governor of Florida as a Republican), will face off against current Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the fall:

The post A Cop Rear-Ended a Car, Sending a Toddler to the Hospital. The Car's Driver Was Breathalyzed. The Cop Wasn't. appeared first on Reason.com.

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Protecting People from Their Own Religious Communities: Pseudonymity in Litigation

This new article of mine will be coming out next year in the Journal of Law and Religion, and I thought I’d serialize it here; there’s still plenty of time for editing, so I’d love to hear people’s feedback. Here’s Part I.A.

[* * *]

Let’s begin by laying out the areas where this issue can arise, starting with pseudonymity in litigation.

Generally speaking, American law requires all parties to a lawsuit to be named, so that the public can better monitor the activities of public courts deciding cases using public funds, in the public’s name, and relying on government coercive power.[1] Indeed, some courts see this as a facet of members of the public’s First Amendment rights to access court records.[2] This rule isn’t absolute: Sometimes parties can appear pseudonymously, and one factor that courts consider is whether publicly identifying a party would cause “social stigma” beyond mere “personal embarrassment” or mere damage to reputation.[3] But courts are sharply split on what sorts of social stigma qualify; for instance, some courts have let plaintiffs claiming to have been sexually assaulted proceed pseudonymously, but others haven’t.[4]

Yet when plaintiff argues that publicly identifying her (or, somewhat more rarely, him) would cause special stigma because of the likely reactions of her religious community, courts often cite that as a special reason for pseudonymity, for example:

The Court recognizes that victims of sexual assault often wish to keep their identities secret out of fear of embarrassment or social stigmatization. Those concerns alone, however, are insufficient to permit a plaintiff to proceed under a pseudonym. Doe v. Princeton Univ., 2019 WL 5587327, at *4 (D.N.J. Oct. 30, 2019). However, if a movant shows that her specific circumstances demonstrate a risk of serious social stigmatization surpassing a general fear of embarrassment, courts may consider those circumstances in favor of granting the motion. Doe v. Neverson, 820 F. App’x 984, 988 (11th Cir. 2020) (reversing the denial of a motion to proceed under a pseudonym because the district court failed to consider the potential significant social stigmatization on account of the movant’s membership in “a strict Muslim household where under their cultural beliefs and traditions such a sexual assault would have the tendency to bring shame and humiliation upon [the movant’s] family.”).[5]

The same has arisen as to potentially controversial voluntary sex-related behavior. One court allowed an erotic dancer to litigate her wages-and-hours claim pseudonymous­ly in part because “her parents are devoutly religious members of a Christian church.”[6] The Seventh Circuit granted, without discussion, a motion that similarly justified pseudonymity for Notre Dame students who were admitting premarital sexual activity and contraceptive use (or at least use of contraceptives that some view as abortifacients).[7]

Still other cases granted motions for pseudonymity on the grounds that the plaintiffs were suing religious leaders (Orthodox rabbis), and their religious community was alleged to be hostile to those who air accusations before outsiders.[8] Those cases also involved alleged sexual victimization, but their logic would apply to other intra-community disputes as well; one case, for instance, relied on an article that

describes at length the cultural factors within the Orthodox Jewish community inhibiting dissent among its members, including: “the overwhelming concern with shame (a child who makes an abuse claim can be thought to bring shame on his whole family);” “the thinking that virtually any public complaint about another person amounts to slander;” and the notion that “say[ing] anything bad about the community” would be “desecrating God’s name.”[9]

Two other cases allowed pseudonymity for people who had been accused of sexual misconduct, and who were suing their universities on the grounds that they had been wrongly disciplined based on such allegations. Their theory was that litigating would make clear that they had engaged in premarital sex (though, they argued, consensual premarital sex), and that revealing this would stigmatize them in their community.

In one of the cases, the court accepted the argument that pseudonymity was proper because the alleged abuser was a citizen of Kuwait, “where ‘sexual activity outside of marriage goes against religious and cultural values’ and ‘sexual relations outside of marriage are illegal,'” which creates a “heightened risk of stigma and retaliation the plaintiff alleges that [he] faces in his home country.”[10] In the other, the court accepted the argument that “this case involves students who attend a strictly religious school that expressly prohibits pre-marital sex”; that “[m]any of these students, including Plaintiff, seek entry into the clergy or religious-affiliated groups after graduation”; and that “disclosure of their identities in connection with their extra-marital sexual activities risks exposing Plaintiff, as well as the unnamed students, to ridicule and even ostracization from their own religious community.”[11]

And in principle, the same argument could arise with regard to lawsuits that stem from, say, altercations at bars or casinos, filed by plaintiffs whose religious communities frown on alcohol or gambling;[12] lawsuits over interest-bearing debt transactions filed by plaintiffs whose religious communities condemn such transactions; or divorce suits—or for that matter any claims that would require mentioning a litigant’s divorce—when the litigant’s religious community condemns divorce.[13]

As it happens, all the decided cases involve situations where some courts would allow pseudonymity even absent concerns about opprobrium in a religious community. Many cases, for instance, do allow pseudonymity for plaintiffs alleging sexual assault, and for plaintiffs alleging unsound university accusations of assault.[14] Some cases have done the same for defendants who are sued for allegedly copying pornography, and for erotic dancers who are suing for labor law violations.[15] And while I know of no cases that have allowed pseudonymity related merely to claims of contraceptive use, some cases have allowed pseudonymity as to sexual matters more broadly.[16] There thus is no crisp scenario in which litigants definitely cannot normally get pseudonymity, but can get it if they belong to a particular religious community.

But at the same time, in all these scenarios, some courts do deny pseudonymity to ordinary litigants.[17] And the cases cited above show that the claimed reactions of the litigant’s religious community are being treated as one factor cutting in favor of pseudonymity.

Moreover, the cases are focusing on the litigant’s religious community. For instance, the fact that a litigant’s actions—or even just what the litigant is accused of—would lead to opprobrium within the litigant’s professional community, to the point of potential economic ruin, is generally rejected as a basis for pseudonymity.[18] Likewise, if an Alcoholics Anonymous leader seeks pseudonymity in a lawsuit stemming from a drunk driving arrest or a bar fight, on the grounds that identifying him would reveal that he had been drinking and might diminish his standing among AA members, it seems unlikely that he would get pseudonymity.[19] It is the religious basis for the potential opprobrium that weighs in favor of the litigant.

To be sure, considering religion in such situations might be sound. Recognizing that some people might be more vulnerable to community stigma because of their religious community membership could well be praised as the governmental “neutrality in the face of religious differences” that Sherbert v. Verner[20] said was at least constitutionally permissible (even though it wouldn’t be constitutionally mandatory here, for reasons discussed in Part II). My point here is simply that the law here, like some other accommodations of religion, is indeed treating religion specially.

For a helpful contrast, consider concerns about actual physical violence rather than social or professional stigma. When there is evidence of real risk of such violence—for instance, possible physical retaliation against people who cooperated with the government[21] or risk of violence against an asylum seeker in his home country[22]—courts do indeed generally allow pseudonymity, entirely apart from whether the violence stems from religious views.[23] The same would apply to people who fear religion-related violence, as in Doe v. Dordoni, which allowed pseudonymity based on a reasonable fear of violent reprisal in Saudi Arabia based on a Saudi citizen’s conversion from Islam to Christianity.[24]

And if a woman suing for sexual assault can credibly show that, if she is publicly identified as a rape victim, she faces a serious risk of “honor killing” (or even nondeadly violence) from family members,[25] that would suffice to justify pseudonymity under normal religion-neutral pseudonymity precedents.[26] The rule allowing pseudonymity in order to diminish a risk of physical violence would thus be religion-neutral in such cases. Not so with the courts’ allowing pseudonymity to prevent social retaliation by a religious community.

 

[1] See Volokh, supra note 1, at 1366–68.

[2] See, e.g., DePuy Synthes Prod., Inc. v. Veterinary Orthopedic Implants, Inc., 990 F.3d 1364, 1370 (Fed. Cir. 2021); In re Sealed Case, 931 F.3d 92, 96 (D.C. Cir. 2019); United States v. Microsoft Corp., 56 F.3d 1448, 1464 (D.C. Cir. 1995); Doe v. Stegall, 653 F.2d 180, 185 (5th Cir. 1981); Ramsbottom v. Ashton, No. 3:21-cv-00272, 2021 WL 2651188, at *2 (M.D. Tenn. June 28, 2021); Doe v. Paychex, Inc., No. 3:17-cv-2031, 2020 WL 219377, at *10 (D. Conn. Jan. 15, 2020); Doe v. Del Rio, 241 F.R.D. 154, 156 (S.D.N.Y. 2006); Dep’t of Fair Emp. & Housing v. Superior Court, __ Cal. App. 4th __, __ (2022); Doe v. Kidd, 19 Misc. 3d 782, 788 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. 2008).

[3] Id. at pt. III.E. This has to do with public identification; the defendant would of course need to be able to know the plaintiff’s identity. Id. at 1362 n.25. Cf. United States v. Lamprecht, No 1:16-cr-00640-BMC, at 2, 5–6 (E.D.N.Y. Jan. 16, 2019) (noting that the court had allowed the government to delay disclosing to defendants certain materials about the witnesses against them, because “the Government claimed that these cooperating witnesses expressed fear that they would be subject to ostracism and harassment if their cooperation against fellow members of their religious community was revealed,” but noting that this was just a delay rather than a categorical denial, and “defendants received the deferred . . . production sufficiently in advance of trial to obviate any prejudice resulting from the delayed disclosure”).

[4] See Volokh, supra note 1, at 1430–37.

[5] Doe v. Cook Cty., 542 F. Supp. 3d 779, 784, 787 (N.D. Ill. 2021); see also Doe v. Neverson, 820 F. App’x 984 (11th Cir. 2020); Doe v. Barr, No. 1:20-cv-03553, 2020 WL 12674163 (D.D.C. Dec. 4, 2020); Doe v. City of Dalton, No. 4:21-cv-00128-LMM, at 2–3 (N.D. Ga. July 12, 2021); Doe v. Amal, No. 1:12-cv-1359 (E.D. Va. Nov. 29, 2012), granting Motion, id. (Nov. 27, 2012) (arguing in part, id. at 6, that plaintiff “is particularly vulnerable to increased emotional trauma and social stigmatization because she is part of a conservative Muslim community that condemns and criminalizes sex outside of marriage”); Roe v. Patterson, No. 419CV00179ALMKPJ, 2019 WL 2407380 (E.D. Tex. June 3, 2019) (noting, but not heavily relying on, plaintiff’s argument that “she seeks to protect her identity not merely to avoid humiliation, but because she has suffered (and continues to suffer) physical and emotional injury, loss of self-esteem, disgrace, and humiliation, as well as spiritual suffering due to her devout Christian beliefs,” and “that as a result of the assaults she was ‘damaged goods’ and ‘no Godly man would ever want her'”); Memorandum of Law in Support of Plaintiffs’ Motion . . . to Proceed Anonymously, Kashef v. BNP Paribas S.A., No. 1:16-cv-03228-AJN (S.D.N.Y. June 7, 2021) (“The Anonymous Plaintiffs have heightened concerns about their private information [about having been raped and having contracted HIV] being known to the public and by their children, as well as a fear of being ostracized in their respective Muslim and Christian communities.”), granted id. (June 22, 2021) (though without discussion of religion); Letter Motion, id. at 2 (Feb. 6, 2017) (making a similar request but just referring to plaintiffs’ “close knit community of Sudanese-Americans”), granted id (Feb. 7, 2017) (again without discussion of community views).

[6] Doe #1 v. Deja Vu Consulting Inc., No. 3:17-CV-00040, 2017 WL 3837730, *5 (M.D. Tenn. Sept. 1, 2017).

[7] Univ. of Notre Dame v. Sebelius, No. 13-3853 (7th Cir. Jan. 14, 2014), granting Motion, id. (Dec. 19, 2013) (discussion of religious community’s potential reaction is at id. at 16–18).

[8] Doe No. 2 v. Kolko, 242 F.R.D. 193, 197 (E.D.N.Y. 2006); Doe v. Georgetown Synagogue—Kesher Israel Congregation, No. 1:16-cv-01845-ABJ (D.D.C. Sept. 15, 2016), granting Motion for Leave to Proceed Under Pseudonyms, id. (Sept. 15, 2016); Doe v. Georgetown Univ., No. 14-0007644 (D.C. Super. Ct. Dec. 1, 2014), granting Motion, id. at 6–7 (Dec. 8, 2014), available in Superior Court Documents, Doe v. Georgetown Univ., No. 1:15-cv-00026 (D.D.C. Jan. 8, 2015) (ECF No. 1-4). Indeed, some Jews disapprove of Jews suing other Jews—even ones who aren’t religious leaders—in secular courts. Michael J. Broyde, The Pursuit of Justice and Jewish Law: Halakhic Perspectives on the Legal Profession 62–64 (2002); Rabbi Yaacov Feit, The Prohibition Against Going to Secular Courts, 1 Journal of the Beth Din of America 30, 30–31 (2012) (“One who goes to secular court is considered ‘an evildoer, as if he has blasphemed, and as if he has raised a hand against the Torah of Moses.'”).

[9] Kolko, 242 F.R.D. at 197.

[10] Doe v. Am. Univ., No. 1:19-cv-03097, at 5–6 (D.D.C. Oct. 10, 2019), granting Motion, id. at 1, 6 (Oct. 10, 2019); see Doe v. Am. Univ., No. 19-CV-03097 (APM), 2020 WL 5593909, *1 (D.D.C. Sept. 18, 2020).

[11] Memorandum, Doe v. Dordt Univ., 5:19-cv-04082-CJW-KEM, at 15 (N.D. Iowa Dec. 5, 2019), granted, id. (Mar. 3, 2020) (granting pseudonymity because “this case involves intimate details of sexual contact between two college students” and “naming Plaintiff would result in the type of harm to reputation he seeks to avoid by bringing this action,” though not specifically mentioning the harm within the religious community). Dordt University, an evangelical Christian school affiliated with the Christian Reformed Church in North America, indeed stresses that it “firmly holds to the biblical teaching that premarital intercourse is forbidden. Further, behavior (e.g. nudity, lying in bed together) that encourages such intimacy will not be tolerated by the university. Students involved in such behavior will face disciplinary action.” Dordt University, Student Life, https://ift.tt/wladQ4L.

[12] Compare, in a different sort of privacy context, Oil, Chem. & Atomic Workers Int’l Union, AFL-CIO, Loc. 2-286 v. Amoco Oil Co. (Salt Lake City Refinery), 885 F.2d 697, 707 (10th Cir. 1989), where the court blocked a unionized employer’s unilateral adoption of a drug and alcohol testing policy, partly because of “the invasion of privacy threatened by Amoco’s testing program, and the potential for stigmatization and humiliation of its employees,” which “would potentially be all the more severe because of the close-knit character of the employees and the fact that the predominant religion in the community [presumably Mormonism] proscribes the drinking of alcoholic beverages,” so that “[t]he consequences of revelations about drug or alcohol use could have long term consequences for a member of such a community.”

[13] In one case, the court refused to vacate a final divorce when the parties had reconciled, despite the parties’ desire to avoid condemnation by their religious community:

[P]laintiff’s counsel[] urged . . . that the parties sought to avoid religious stigma in their communities that allegedly attaches to divorce. If that contention is the case, they should have considered alleged religious, community, and cultural opprobrium before they both consented to an uncontested civil divorce. At any rate, the Court does not bow to alleged religious sentiments or convictions that may attach to divorce. Civic marriage and divorce should not be entangled with religious marriage and divorce. Preventing embarrassment to former litigants, moreover, is not a worthy allocation of judicial resources.

Doe v. Doe, 29 Misc. 3d 483, 486–87 (2010). Yet despite that, the court took an unusual step: “In order to avoid unnecessary embarrassment to the parties, the Court has concealed their names in this version of the opinion submitted for publication, referring to the husband and wife as John Doe and Jane Doe and hiding the correct index number.” Id. at 484. (In the absence of any religious community concerns, references to divorce aren’t generally viewed by courts as justifying pseudonymity, see Doe v. Bd. of Regents of Univ. of N.M., No. CIV 20-1207 JB/JHR, 2021 WL 4034136, *1 (D.N.M. Sept. 4, 2021).)

[14] See Volokh, supra note 1, at Apps. 2a & 2b.

[15] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[16] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[17] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[18] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[19] This would likely fall within the familiar principle that mere risk of harm to reputation and of “social stigmatization” doesn’t justify pseudonymity. See id. at pt. III.F; Balerna v. Bosco, No. HHD-CV-176082264S, 2017 WL 6884041, at *2 (Conn. Super. Ct. Dec. 6, 2017) (rejecting pseudonymity when the parties merely “wish to protect themselves from embarrassment and/or economic harm in their respective professional and social communities as a result of having to proceed using their true names”).

[20] 374 U.S. 398, 409 (1963).

[21] See United States v. Doe, 655 F.2d 920, 922 n.1 (9th Cir. 1980) (pseudonymizing a litigant’s name because of the “risk of serious bodily harm if [prison inmate’s] role on behalf of the Government were disclosed to other inmates”); Doe No. 1 v. United States, 143 Fed. Cl. 238, 241 (2019) (“[D]isclosing the names of BATF employees could endanger them.”).

[22] See Volokh, supra note 1, at pt. III.A.

[23] Id. at pt. III.B.

[24] No. 1:16-CV-00074-JHM, 2016 WL 4522672, *3 (W.D. Ky. Aug. 29, 2016).

[25] In Doe v. Barr, No. 1:20-cv-03553, 2020 WL 12674163 (D.D.C. Dec. 4, 2020), plaintiff argued that there was such a risk, id. at 5, but the judge allowed her to be pseudonymous based solely on the possible danger of “reputational harm” within her community, id. at 6.

[26] The same might apply with regard to other serious harms that go beyond stigma or social or professional retaliation, even if they don’t rise to the level of violence. Thus, for instance, Wolfchild v. United States, 62 Fed. Cl. 521, 553 (2004), rev’d on other grounds, 559 F.3d 1228 (Fed. Cir. 2009), allowed certain Sioux plaintiffs to proceed pseudonymously, because of a concern that the tribe would disapprove of their position in the lawsuit; the court stressed the risk not just of social opprobrium but also of the tangible legal consequence of lost tribal membership (since “the community governments possess nearly a plenary power over community membership,” 62 Fed. Cl. at 553).

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Deglobalization And Central Banking

Deglobalization And Central Banking

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

There are primarily two opinions on the future path for inflation. The widely held view thinks inflation will resort back to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic-related supply and demand distortions continue normalizing. A lesser followed theory believes this surge in inflation, unlike others over the last 30+ years, will be persistent. We initially discussed why this might occur in Persistent Inflation Scares the Fed. The article considers a change in behaviors that might generate a price-wage spiral. Given the significance of inflation on economic growth, Fed policy, and ultimately asset prices, it’s worth exploring deglobalization, another argument for persistently high inflation.

In War and Interest Rates, Zoltan Pozsar makes a strong case that hot economic wars will change the global economic landscape, reversing decades of the benefits of economic globalization and resulting in deglobalization and higher levels of inflation than we are accustomed to. The outcome may change monetary policy goals from supporting asset markets and encouraging debt use to managing geopolitical change and deglobalization.

Zoltan is the global head of short-term interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse. His opinions are often alternative. Whether you agree with him or not, he provokes a high level of thought.

All quotes in this article are from Zoltan unless otherwise noted.

Why High Inflation Matters

Before summarizing Zoltan’s article, it is worth a quick summary of why the future path of inflation is so crucial for investors.

The U.S. and most other developed nations have enormous levels of debt. The IMF graph below shows that global debt as a percentage of GDP has surged 2.5x in the last fifty years.

Higher debt levels as a percentage of GDP were made possible with continually lower interest rates and increasing amounts of unproductive debt. In some cases, negative interest rates and frequent QE kept economies running and countries from defaulting.

Central bankers got away with neglectful monetary policies because inflation was not a concern. The globalization of trade allowed for the flow of cheap goods. Accordingly, the Fed and other central banks conducted easy monetary policies with little fear of stoking inflation. Such an environment was conducive to high asset valuations.

Higher levels of inflation are likely to accompany higher interest rates. High-interest rates are extremely taxing on economies with burgeoning debt levels. Such an environment is unfavorable for high valuations and strong asset price performance. Inflation is therefore a key factor driving asset returns.

Zoltan’s Warning

Zoltan writes his article after recently visiting his firm’s European clients. He broadly seems to disagree with many of his clients’ inflation and central bank policy expectations. To wit:

The expected path of western policy rates rests on two hopes: first, that inflation is about to peak. Second, that we are near peak hawkishness.

Per his experiences, many investors believe inflation is peaking, and central bankers will back off their aggressive monetary policy designed to fight inflation. Zoltan warns, as we do, that investors with such a view may get caught offside. As such, we need to consider some tough questions. For instance:

  • What if inflation proves persistent and doesn’t retreat by as much or as fast as investors expect?

  • What if central bankers have no choice but to keep administering the harsh monetary medicine that the markets are struggling to digest?

Three Pillars of the Low Inflation Era

To appreciate Zoltan’s concern for a new inflation regime, it’s worth sharing his opinion on what fostered the low inflation environment of the last 30+ years.

Zoltan posits that low inflation rates rest on three pillars. 

  • First, cheap immigrant labor keeps service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.

  • Second, cheap goods from China raise living standards amid stagnant wages

  • Third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly

U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer….  All of this worked for decades until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world.

The Three Pillars are Crumbling

The three pillars described above are turning deflationary pressures into inflationary pressures. Let’s discuss how they are changing.

Nativism

Recent restrictions on immigration into the U.S. reversed a decades-long trend in which cheap immigrant labor provided an ample supply of workers. As a result of excess potential employees, wages were relatively stagnant for a large percentage of the working population.

With wages in check, companies could increase profit margins, boost profits, and keep the prices of their goods from rising too quickly. In some industries, companies could lower prices and maintain profits due to cheap labor.

With less immigration, current workers have more leverage. There are now more job openings than at any time in the last 20 years. Some of this is due to the pandemic, but as we show below, the number of openings is well above pre-covid levels.

As employees become harder to replace and in greater demand by competitors, they seek higher wages. As we show, average hourly earnings for manufacturing employees were generally trending lower until about five years ago, when immigration became more restrictive.

One of the Fed’s primary concerns and reasons for its hawkishness is the potential for a price-wage spiral. A price-wage spiral rests on the ability of workers to demand raises to offset higher prices. Such a circular problem increases the odds that high inflation becomes persistent.

China

Cheap goods from China are not as cheap as they used to be. Further, pandemic-related shortages made it clear the U.S. is too dependent on hostile nations for essential goods, including some technology products and pharmaceuticals. Per the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR): It is believed that about 80 percent of the basic components used in U.S. drugs, known as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), come from China and India.”

The recent Inflation Reduction Bill seeks to bring back the production of semiconductors and other essential goods to the U.S. From a strategic point of view, deglobalization may be intelligent and necessary. However, more expensive labor, higher taxes, and stricter regulations make it costly.

Russia

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, it supplied Europe with approximately 40% of its natural gas and over 50% of its coal. Coal and natural gas help generate about 30% of Europe’s power production. Europe, and Germany in particular, will feel the effect of reduced Russian supply this winter via higher gas prices.

Higher energy costs will not be limited to Europe. The world will pay as Germany will likely restrict its chemical production. Germany’s chemical and pharmaceutical industries account for about 15% of its total gas consumption. Per Reuters: Germany’s chemical industry has already done everything it can to conserve gas use, said chemical association VCI on Tuesday, which warned that the only steps left for the industry would be to scale back or abandon production altogether.

Germany is the world’s third largest exporter of chemical products. If they cut production, chemical price inflation will affect all nations. In turn, the prices of many products using these chemicals will also rise.

Even if Russia makes amends and withdraws from Ukraine, Europe is still likely to seek new dependencies for energy. These come at higher costs. As such, the goods it produces must also come at higher prices.

Hot Economic War

War is inflationary.

Wars come in many shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what Pippa Malmgren calls hot wars in cold places.

Zoltan and Malmgren characterize the hot war with Russia and China involving the trade of goods and commodities as occurring in cold places, the “corridors of power.”

Hot or cold Wars and continued hostilities exaggerate the inflationary effect of pillars two and three crumbling. Essentially the globalization and deflation of the last thirty years will be put in reverse. Welcome to the deglobalization era!

Central banking in the Deglobalization Era

Deglobalization is the process of diminishing interdependence and integration between certain units around the world, typically nation-states. It is widely used to describe the periods of history when economic trade and investment between countries decline. – Wikipedia

Central banks have been saying for over a decade their aim was to fight deflation by inflating asset prices. (As investors) all we had to do was borrow at low rates and buy assets irrespective of quality.

Now our jobs are becoming more difficult.

Further on Zoltan states:

Central banks went from waging war against deflationary impulses coming from the globalization of cheap resources to ‘cleaning up’ the inflationary impulses coming from a complex economic war.

Deglobalization will bring about inflation, just as globalization brought about deflation. If Zoltan is correct, the argument for persistent inflation is credible.

In such an environment, central banks will contend against inflationary geopolitical events. This entails we are exiting a world where central banks manage the demand side of the economy. They are very adept and have the tools to control demand. They do not have the tools to manage supply. We are potentially on the cusp of enormous change.

Summary

Zoltan ends with the following quote:

Today, it’s time to think more about the risk of inflation staying higher for longer due the economic warfare, and less about inflation being driven by a messy re-opening process and stimulus.

The BIS argues inflation may stay higher than what we have grown accustomed to due to a price-wage spiral. Zoltan adds that economic hot wars with China and Russia make persistently higher inflation likely.

Investors are comfortable with a Fed that willingly lowers rates and does QE at the first sign of economic or market trouble. That may change if higher inflation is more persistent. The Fed may have to sacrifice the economy and markets to some degree to ensure tolerable inflation. The Feds job is even more crucial considering the enormous debt loads and reliance on low-interest rates.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 08:45

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US Durable Goods Orders Disappointedly Flat In July As Defense Spending Slumps

US Durable Goods Orders Disappointedly Flat In July As Defense Spending Slumps

After surging in June, US durable goods order growth was expected to slow in July (preliminary data) but it notably disappointed with no change from June (vs +0.8% MoM expected), which was revised up from +2.0% MoM to +2.2% MoM. That is the weakest print for durable goods orders since February and YoY growth slowed to just 9.4%

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Transports, durable goods orders rose 0.3% MoM (better than the +0.2% expected)

The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, rose 0.4% after an upwardly revised 0.9% advance.

Bookings for defense aircraft and parts plunged nearly 50% – dragging down the overall durable goods measure – the biggest drop since Nov 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Ex Aircraft & Parts – a proxy for capital expenditure – was up solidly in the early July data (+0.4% MoM vs +0.3% MoM expected)

Of course, all of this data is nominal – not adjusted for inflation – so adjust your euphoria at the ‘economic’ strength accordingly.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 08:36

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Growing Number Of Economists Anticipate Recession Will Hit By Middle Of Next Year: Survey

Growing Number Of Economists Anticipate Recession Will Hit By Middle Of Next Year: Survey

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An overwhelming number of economists think a recession will hit the United States by the middle of next year, according to a survey by The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) published on Monday.

(Andy Dean/Shutterstock)

The survey (pdf) was conducted between Aug. 1 and Aug. 9 among 198 members of NABE.

It found that 72 percent of economists polled expect a recession to begin by the middle of next year, including 19 percent of those who said the United States is already in a recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

The NBER defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

The standard definition of a recession is also based on two consecutive quarters of declining gross national product, as has been seen in the United States.

Nine percent of economists polled say the recession will start in the third quarter of this year and another 16 percent say it will begin in the fourth quarter.

More than one-quarter of respondents (28 percent) expect a recession to begin in the first half of 2023, split between 22 percent who see the recession hitting in the first quarter and six percent who forecast it will hit in the second quarter.

Another 20 percent of respondents do not expect a recession to begin before the second half of 2023.

Elsewhere, 73 percent of respondents said they are “not very confident” or “not at all confident” that the Federal Reserve will be able to bring inflation down to its 2 percent goal within the next two years without prompting a recession. Among them, 51 percent said they are not at all confident the Fed can achieve a soft landing, and 21 percent said they are not at all confident.

No Confidence in the Fed

Just 3 percent of economists said they were “very confident” the Fed could achieve its goal without sparking a recession, while 10 percent said they were confident and 14 percent stated they were “somewhat confident.”

The NABE Policy Survey panelists are concerned about inflation and recession,” said NABE Policy Survey Chair Juhi Dhawan in a statement. “Overall, panelists are not confident that the Federal Reserve will be able to bring inflation down to its 2 percent goal within the next two years without triggering a recession. In addition, roughly one-fifth of panelists believe the United States is already in a recession, while nearly half the panelists—47 percent—expect a recession to begin by the end of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023.”

The survey results come after the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed into law by President Joe Biden on Aug. 16, and has prompted a mixed response among lawmakers and experts, some of whom argue it could cost Americans more, contrary to what Democrats claim.

A separate poll from The Economist/YouGov conducted from Aug. 13 to 16 found that just a small number of Americans believe the bill will reduce inflation.

Specifically, 13 percent said they believe the $369 billion earmarked for climate and energy expenditures in the bill will decrease inflation, while 38 percent of respondents said they believe it will further worsen inflation.

However, among the economists surveyed by the NABE, the bill appeared to receive broad support. The bill was still being negotiated in the Senate at the time the survey was conducted.

Still, it found that 76 percent of respondents supported the $300 billion deficit-reduction goal of the bill, while 14 percent oppose the provision.

More than two-thirds of the respondents supported the 15 percent minimum corporate tax (69 percent of panelists for it and 26 percent opposed), as well as the expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies and drug-pricing reform provisions (68 percent of panelists in favor, 26 percent opposed) and climate change subsidies, rebates and private-public investments, with 63 percent in favor and 31 percent opposed.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 08:25

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