“Tsunami Of Shutoffs”: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind On Power Bills

“Tsunami Of Shutoffs”: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind On Power Bills

At least 20 million households — or about 1 in 6 American homes — are behind on their power bills as soaring electricity prices spark what is said to be the worst-ever crisis in late utility payments, according to Bloomberg, citing data from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada).

Neada said electricity prices had increased significantly since 2020 after a decade of stagnation. The steep rise has resulted in billions of dollars in overdue power bills.  

Source: Bloomberg

Electricity inflation is being propelled by soaring costs of fossil fuels, such as natural gas, coal, and petroleum.

Source: Bloomberg

NatGas fuels about 40% of the US power grid and soared to the highest levels since 2008 on Tuesday. 

The chart below shows for the two decades, real electricity prices were relatively flat, except for the commodity boom times around the 2008 GFC. Now CPI less energy has peaked, though electricity continues to rise to a blistering 30% year on year. 

Source: Bloomberg

Utility shutoffs have become more common across the US as some lower-tier households are thousands of dollars behind on their power bills. 

Jean Su, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, which tracks utility disconnections across the US, warned of a “tsunami of shutoff” as the highest inflation in forty years eats away wages and has financially devastated the working poor.  

Adrienne Nice is one of those struggling Americans who is more than $3,000 behind on utility bills. Last month, she received a “final notice” from power company Xcel Energy Inc., who turned off the electricity to her studio apartment in Minneapolis as temperatures approached near triple digits. 

Nice found it near impossible to save money for utility expenses that have doubled over the past year as food, shelter, and gas prices have also skyrocketed. Her low-paying job as a housecleaner has left her in energy poverty. 

“I just don’t understand how electricity can be so high,” she said. 

Across the country, power companies reported a surge in non-payment customers. California’s PG&E Corp said there had been a 40% jump in the number of residential customers behind on payments since February 2020. New Jersey’s Public Service Enterprise Group said customers at least 90 days late have risen 30% since March. 

“People on the bottom, they can’t pay” their electricity bills, said Mark Wolfe, Neada’s executive director. 

Readers know that low-tier consumers are financially tapped out. They’ve maxed out credit cards, depleted savings, and have seen wage gains wiped out due to inflation. It comes as no surprise the US is becoming more like Europe, where energy poverty has doomed millions of households. 

It’s only a matter of time before the Biden administration starts handing out stimmy checks for electricity bills. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 08:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/P32r0ce Tyler Durden

Bull Market Or Bull Trap? Investors Turn Cautious

Bull Market Or Bull Trap? Investors Turn Cautious

By Jan-Patrick Barnert, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

As the summer equity rally runs out of steam, investor positioning suggests that defensives are back in favor, while some of the market’s recent drivers are fading.

Stocks extended their decline on Monday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling 1% as cyclicals such as autos, chemicals, banks, retail and industrials led the retreat. Health care, utilities, food stocks and consumer staples performed better.

A similar picture emerges when looking at the factors guiding investor decisions as the trading week starts, with analyst conviction, momentum, share buybacks and EPS growth outperforming, while value, leverage and volatility are sold.

The surprise rally over the past two months has been “driven by a combination of better-than-feared earnings, extremely light positioning, and hope for a less hawkish Fed,” says Bantleon portfolio manager Oliver Scharping. “Just as investors return from the beach, these summertime support pillars are starting to crumble,” he says.

With the upswing in stocks in danger of faltering, even some of the more bullish market watchers are turning cautious when it comes to the riskier areas of the equities universe.

“While the recent rally in tech may be understandable, that doesn’t mean you should chase it,” writes UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele. He advises trimming overexposure and rebalancing portfolios toward segments that are better positioned than choppy tech.

Two positioning factors that helped push the market higher are also in decline: options and short covering.

Some predicted that last Friday’s option expiry would trigger a resurgence in volatility, making equities less stable as a “pinning effect” in the options market was reduced by the rolling off in so-called gamma, an options sensitivity measure. So far, this prediction has proven correct, with volatility back above the 20 point handle, gaining more than four points — or 22% — since Aug. 18.

Short covering in stocks, meanwhile, seems to have run its course. The average short ratio measured against free float in the S&P 500 Index has dropped to 2% from 2.2%, while the performance gap between the most-shorted stocks and the wider market has narrowed significantly.

Meanwhile, short positions in equity futures contracts remain at their most pronounced levels in years. That suggests that while investors covered their shorts in single stocks, bets on declines intended as macro hedges for portfolios remain in place and have even been expanded slightly.

This week might also prove pivotal for stocks as Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlines the annual Jackson Hole central bankers meeting with a speech on the economic outlook Friday. He is expected to reinforce the Fed’s resolve to keep raising interest rates to subdue inflation, though he’ll probably stop short of signaling how big officials will go when they meet next month.

“We think it’s sensible to stay cautious going into the event and have been buyers of downside hedges recently,” says Bantleon’s Scharping.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 07:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/t8BSgIf Tyler Durden

Futures Flat After Hawkish Fed Comments, Dollar Ascent Resumes

Futures Flat After Hawkish Fed Comments, Dollar Ascent Resumes

The downbeat market mood continued for a fourth day, with US stock futures turning red and erasing earlier gains after a three-day drop saw the S&P 500 lose $1.4 trillion in market capitalization amid renewed concerns about a hawkish Fed and a potential J-Pow bomb during Friday’s J-Hole symposium (that said, with expectations so bearish, there is almost no way Powell can sound hawkish). S&P 500 futures dropped 0.1% at 7:00am ET after falling as much as 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were also modestly red as the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit 3.05%. The US dollar reversed yesterday’s sharp drop and extended its recent surge as the EURUSD resumed its plunge trading ever farther from parity, and at 0.992 last. Oil meanwhile has continued its ascent, pushing Brent above $100, and leading to the first Diesel price increase at the Pump since mid-June.

“Globally we haven’t seen a deceleration like this that has been so synchronized in many decades,” Frances Stacy, director of strategy at Optimal Capital Advisors LLC, said on Bloomberg Television. “I don’t want to be directional” in picking trades, she added.

The latest data showed economic activity weakening from the US to Europe and Asia, underlining the dire dilemma the Fed faces in hiking interest rates to bring down high inflation without sparking a recession. Still, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is very high and the central bank must act to bring it back down to 2% and it is “very clear” they need to tighten monetary policy. Kashkari also stated that half to two-thirds of US high inflation is driven by supply-side shocks and help is needed on the supply side to get inflation down, with the more help they get from the supply side, the less the Fed has to do and will be better able to avoid a hard landing. Furthermore, he said there is currently no trade-off between employment and inflation mandates and they can only relax on rate hikes when they see compelling evidence inflation is heading toward 2%.

In US pre-market trading, Nordstrom plunged as much as 14% and was set for its biggest drop in nine months, after an outlook cut prompted analyst worries that the need to clear inventory and discounting could hurt margins in the second half. Brokers said that the higher-end department store owner’s results have been more volatile than expected and show that the company is “not immune” to a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Bed Bath & Beyond shares rose as much as 18% in premarket trading following a WSJ report that the home goods retailer told prospective lenders that it has selected a lender for a loan after a marketing by JPMorgan Chase. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN US) delivered quarterly results that look broadly in line with other apparel retailers, with a slowdown in lower-end brands and pressure on margins from markdowns, analysts say.
  • Frontier GroupHoldings (ULCC US) is resumed with an overweight rating at Morgan Stanley, with broker saying that the company is “the quintessential ultra-low-cost carrier” and has attractive margins.
  • Starbox (STBX US) shares jump as much as 30% in US premarket trading, with the Malaysian digital payments firm set for another day of gains after soaring in Tuesday’s Nasdaq Stock Market debut.

Stock futures were rangebound in muted volumes, as traders assessed the fact that directors at two of the Fed’s 12 regional branches favored a 100 basis-point increase in the discount rate in July. One of them, Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, said US inflation is very high and the central bank must act to bring it back under control. All eyes remain on Fed officials as they head to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week for an annual conference, where Chair Jerome Powell will have a chance to reset investor expectations when he speaks on the economic outlook at 10am on Friday.

“We’ve been getting mixed signals from the Fed, highlighting risks of over-tightening but also concerns over still elevated inflation,” Madison Faller, global strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, told Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to take more than one reading, we are going to have to see inflation fall over several months before we can really get a sense of whether a Fed pivot is on the way.”

According to an analysis of 13F reports by Goldman, last quarter hedge funds ramped up bets on megacap US tech stocks and whittled down overall holdings to concentrate on favored names, with conviction growing to levels last seen before the pandemic. The funds boosted tech and consumer discretionary holdings, while cutting energy and materials wagers, a trade which once again backfired spectacularly as tech crashed and energy soared. Since then however, the story has changed as Nasdaq 100 valuations rose well above the average for the past decade as the index soared from its June lows. The gauge remains under pressure, however, as higher rates weigh on the present value of future profits, hurting growth sectors like tech.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index edged lower, heading for a fourth straight day of declines, with retailers under pressure after US peer Nordstrom trimmed its full-year outlook. Luxury-goods giant Richemont surged after selling a stake in its online business. European natural gas prices increased, with outages at plants in the US and Norway adding to supply curbs from Russia. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Richemont shares rise as much as 3.3% after the luxury retailer announced the sale of its YNAP stake to US online retailer Farfetch, which was up 9.4% in US premarket trading
  • Tenaris gains as much as 3.3%, extending Tuesday’s 8.8% jump, with Banca Akros upgrading the company to buy from accumulate noting its outlook remains positive
  • ASR Nederland shares jump as much as 4.1% after the insurer reported interim results. KBC says the company delivered solid results despite headwinds from Non-Life segment
  • Lookers shares gain as much as 8%. The motor vehicle dealer’s pretax profit beat last year’s “exceptional performance” and was “comfortably ahead” of expectations, Peel Hunt (buy) says
  • CTS Eventim shares gain as much as 4% after the ticket seller’s 2Q results, with Jefferies pointing to a significant beat driven by ticketing
  • Norwegian fish farming stocks drop, led by Mowi, Leroy and Austevoll after the trio reported their respective quarterly results, with DNB expecting cuts to Mowi consensus estimates
  • Vimian shares sink as much as 14% to a record low after the animal health company reported 2Q results that saw only slight organic growth and a lower Ebita margin
  • Sydbank shares slide as much as 6.1% after the Danish lender’s latest results included a miss on net income, while saying its 2022 net profit will likely be in upper end of the previously reported range
  • Agfa-Gevaert shares decline as much as 11%, the most intraday since May 2021, despite a 2Q revenue beat as ING questioned the quality of the earnings

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a fifth day of declines, weighed down by losses in China, with investors trimming risky bets as they await clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path at the Jackson Hole meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7%, set for its longest losing streak in two months. The consumer discretionary sector was the biggest drag. China’s CSI 300 Index slumped 1.9%, the most among regional benchmarks, with electric-vehicle linked shares leading the declines after CATL reported weaker battery margins. Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said US inflation is very high and the central bank must act to bring it under control, in the latest run of hawkish remarks by US officials. That, coupled with weak US business activity data overnight, renewed concerns about global growth as central bankers gather for an annual symposium in Jackson Hole. 

“We could see more short-term pressure on equities, starting in the US. This could also spill over to Asia given that corporate earnings in APAC are relatively sensitive to the region’s export performance,” said Tai Hui, APAC chief global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. “We expect market sentiment to remain cautious as we approach the Jackson Hole meeting.”   In addition to a flurry of earnings this week from the region’s heavyweights, investors are also closely watching the impact of a drought in China that has led to shutdown of factories. 

Japanese equities ended lower, erasing earlier gains, as investors assess the potential for further tightening by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation.  The Topix Index fell 0.2% to 1,967.18 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.5% to 28,313.47. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.4%. Out of 2,170 stocks in the index, 1,165 rose and 861 fell, while 144 were unchanged. “The key point to watch on the Jackson Hole is whether Powell will be hawkish, or a little less hawkish,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

India’s benchmark equities index closed slightly higher, after seesawing between gains and losses several times throughout the day, helped by an advance in lenders.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.1% to close at 59,085.43 in Mumbai, after falling as much as 0.5% earlier in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index added 0.2%.   ICICI Bank Ltd. provided the biggest boost to the Sensex, which saw 16 of the 30 member stocks ending higher. Fourteen of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a gauge of realty companies.  Investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for a sense of how aggressive the US central bank will be in the face of weak economic trends.  “Market strategists blamed the three-day losing streak in U.S. stocks on a number of factors, including nerves ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, combined with a drumbeat of downbeat economic news, along with anxieties about rising Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar,” Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities Ltd., wrote in a note. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries advanced, outperforming European peers, amid some paring of Fed rate hike bets. The euro traded in a narrow range around $0.950. Germany’s 10-year yield climbed to the highest since July 1 as money markets added to ECB rate-hike wagers before paring most of that rise. The pound slipped against the dollar and was steady versus the euro. Gilts underperformed with UK 2-, 5 and 30-year yields extending their advance to the highest since 2008, 2011 and 2014 respectively, before paring; the 10-year yield rose to the highest in two months.

In rates, Treasuries were mixed with 20-year sector outperforming, and broader market faring better than UK and euro-zone bond markets, where a full point of ECB hikes by October is priced in for the first time with energy seen adding to inflationary pressures. The 10Y TSY yield rose modestly to 3.05% after trading north of 3.00% all session. The New 2-year is ~1bp richer on the day with UK 2-year cheaper by ~15bp, German 2-year by ~6bp; 20-year Treasuries are richer by ~1bp outright and ~2bp on the 10s20s30s fly. The US Treasury auction cycle resumes with $45b 5-year at 1pm ET, concludes with $37b seven-year Thursday; Tuesday’s 2-year sale tailed by 1.4bp.

In commodities, WTI crude drifted above $94 a barrel, bolstered by shrinking US stockpiles and possible OPEC+ output cuts.

Bitcoin is incrementally softer but resides towards the mid-point of relatively contained parameters and remains comfortably above the USD 21k mark.

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the preliminary durable goods orders and core capital goods orders for July, along with pending home sales for that month too. Otherwise, earnings releases include Nvidia, Salesforce and Royal Bank of Canada.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,133.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 431.26
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 157.88
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 512.64
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 28,313.47
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,967.18
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 19,268.74
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.9% to 3,215.20
  • Sensex little changed at 58,991.22
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,998.12
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,447.45
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.32%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $0.9949
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,750.10
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 108.65

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said US inflation is very high and the central bank must act to bring it back under control
  • The head of macro and FICC research at Sweden’s biggest lender, SEB AB, has urged the Riksbank to stop selling off its own currency because it risks hurting the economy
  • The latest round of euro weakness has resulted in a series of bearish options structures for hedge funds and macro accounts. First stop for the common currency could be the $0.98 handle
  • The world’s largest pension fund said its equity investments based on environmental, social and governance criteria have outperformed as global stocks slump on concerns over inflation and monetary tightening
  • Oil rose for a second day as an industry report signaled another drawdown in US crude inventories, adding to a tightening supply outlook after Saudi Arabia flagged possible cuts to production
  • The UK imported no fuel from Russia for the first time on record in June as the government achieved its ambition to phase out all purchases of natural gas and oil in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed and only partially shrugged off the lacklustre lead from global counterparts. ASX 200 reclaimed the 7,000 level and was led by the tech and commodity-related sectors although gains were capped amid another busy day of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain opening advances following reports that Japan is considering lowering the COVID employment subsidy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with property names pressured by several bearish factors including weak developer earnings and a default warning by Guangzhou R&F Properties, while China is also reportedly probing real estate executives for possible law violations.

Top Asian News

  • China Securities Times noted that moderate CNY depreciation is positive for export competitiveness and that the widening US-China interest rate spread has a limited impact on CNY.
  • Hong Kong is considering a storm level 8 from 18:00 local time 11:00BST/06:00EDT which could result in a market closure on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japanese PM Kishida announced to relax border rules on COVID and will waive tests for vaccinated passenger arrivals from September 7th, but added there was no decision yet on raising the number of daily arrivals, according to Reuters.

Cautious price action in European hours with fresh drivers limited and the docket sparse ahead of Jackson Hole commencing on Thursday (Powell Friday), Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% Stateside, futures are in-fitting both directionally and in terms of magnitude, ES -0.1%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 is the marginal laggard with metals (ex-aluminium) under broad pressure as the USD gains momentum.

Top European News

  • Scottish Power CEO proposed to UK Business Secretary Kwarteng capping household energy bills at around GBP 2000/year which would need funding of over GBP 100bln over two years, according to FT citing sources.
  • ECB’s Rehn says the investigation phase for the digital EUR is expected to conclude in October 2023, will then determine whether to embark on actually building a digital EUR.
  • Ukraine Latest: US to Mark Kyiv’s Independence With New Arms
  • BNP Hires Zink Secher as Head of ESG Ratings Advisory for EMEA
  • Cineworld Short Seller Argonaut Says Shareholders to Get Nothing
  • Euro Traders Bet on Move Below $0.98 as Bold Wagers Also in Play

FX

  • DXY attempted to claw back some of Tuesday’s losses overnight but lost momentum at a current session peak of 108.81.
  • EUR is subdued as the bearish bias persists, GBP/USD is under similar mild pressure around (and marginally below) 1.1800.
  • Non US-dollars are all softer against the USD whilst havens JPY and CHF outperform.

Fixed Income

  • Initial pronounced EGB pressure briefly abated and brought benchmarks into positive territory; though, this failed to cement itself.
  • Gilts are leading the downside though are circa. 20 ticks off worst levels, complex cognisant of the upcoming Ofgem announcement and inflation/rate implications.
  • USTs are bucking the trend once more and are incrementally positive with 5yr issuance due and the curve incrementally steeper.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent October futures have been grinding higher since the European entrance following an APAC session of consolidation.
  • Spot gold has been drifting higher after mounting the USD 1,750/oz mark.
  • Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper lower but still north of USD 8,000/t, whilst aluminium outperforms.
  • US Private Inventory report (bbls): Crude -5.6mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +0.7mln, Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -1.5mln), Distillates +1.1mln (exp. +0.6mln).
  • Canada and Germany signed a hydrogen alliance deal to accelerate exports of Canadian hydrogen to Germany by 2025, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s Sakhalin has scrapped a gas shipment to a buyer due to a payment issue, via Bloomberg.
  • Major oil traders and some producers have ceased direct sales of crude to India’s Nayara energy amid concerns regarding Russian sanctions, according to Reuters sources.
  • American Automobile Association says that US diesel pump prices have climbed for the first time since mid-June.
  • Indonesia extends the palm oil export levy waiver until October 31st, according to the Trade Minister.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Aug. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.3%
  • 08:30: July Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.8%, prior 2.0%; Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
    • July Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
    • July Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: July Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -2.6%, prior -8.6%; YoY, est. -21.4%, prior -19.8%

DB’s Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap

Despite the best efforts of data releases, US rates markets just do not want to fundamentally re-price the outlook until Chair Powell’s remarks this Friday at Jackson Hole (and, to an extent, the next round of employment and inflation data before the September FOMC). Our US economists have published a preview for his remarks (link here), with the one-line takeaway being they are looking for the Chair to fill in reaction function details. These being my last hours on the clock before the Chair’s remarks (as we here at EMR HQ navigate the summer holiday minefield that my inbox stuffed with automatic out-of-office replies suggest is ubiquitous across the financial sector) I can’t help but leave you, dear reader, with my final thoughts. The retracement of every rally following downside data surprises, along with the build up in short policy futures positions, suggests that the market is looking for a very hawkish tone from the Chair. That a priori expectations are for such hawkish messaging, the bar to clear for rates to selloff further is that much higher. It does not seem like the Chair can deliver the sort of shock necessary to drive a material re-pricing of policy, especially with inflation and employment data still due before the September FOMC, but time will tell. The case that a hawkish shock is to come is that the Chair most frequently has to speak publicly on behalf of the Committee, and this is his opportunity to slant his remarks towards his own personal bias. The Chair may well personally weigh the balance of risks toward worse inflation outcomes, but let’s see if his lean is strong enough to satiate the market’s appetite.

The latest example of rates markets retracing back to their starting point came yesterday, when PMIs, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and New Home Sales all missed to the downside in quick succession. In particular, the Services PMI (44.1 v 49.8 expected) fell to its lowest on record outside of the pandemic, with the survey showing weakness across new sales, new orders, and employment elements, along with abating price pressures. Nevertheless, respondents were optimistic about the path ahead, not making it any easier for market participants to disentangle signal from noise. Rounding out the other morning data, Manufacturing PMI fared better than Services, printing at 51.3 vs. 51.8 expected, still leaving the Composite at 45.0, its worst reading since February 2021. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index was -8 vs. -2 expectations, while there were 511k new home sales in July vs. 575k expectations, another print on the downbeat for US housing markets.

Following the lackluster data, 2yr Treasury yields fell -11.8bps peak-to-trough, only, as intimated, to stage a retracement to end the day a mere -1.0bp lower. Similarly, 10yr Treasury yields were -9.3bps lower, peak-to-trough, but retraced with more vigor, nearly returning to intraday highs, ultimately closing +3.2bps higher at 3.05%. The S&P 500 followed a similar cadence, staging an initial bad-news-is-good-news rally following the data, increasing +0.53%, reverting to a narrow range just in the red the rest of the day, finishing down -0.22%. The NASDAQ danced to the same tune, but was even more reluctant to re-evaluate the outlook, closing perfectly flat, day-over-day. Futures are currently lower as we go to press, with the S&P 500 (-0.37%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) and DAX (-0.65%) all in the red.

Most European assets were similarly subdued, with 10yr bunds (+1.2bps), OATs (+2.0bps), and BTPs (+1.8bps) trading near the prior day’s levels. The bund curve also twist steepened, with 2yr yields falling -3.8bps. Risk fared a touch worse; the STOXX 600 fell -0.42% and the DAX was -0.27% lower. Eurozone PMIs were a bit stronger than US counterparts, across Manufacturing (49.7 vs. 49.0), Services (50.2 vs. 50.5), and the Composite (49.2 vs. 49.0). Meanwhile, consumer confidence bounced back from record lows set in July, printing at -24.9 (vs. -28.0). Sentiment in Europe was boosted by a slight retrenchment in energy prices; German power fell -1.92%, the first daily decline in more than two weeks, while natural gas futures were -2.78% lower. The euro was able to temporarily break through parity versus the US dollar after the weak US data, but finished the day below the mark at $0.997.

Gilt yields increased more than other core sovereign bonds, with 2yr yields +9.8bps higher and 10yr benchmarks +6.1bps higher. UK Manufacturing PMI registered a poor 46.0 (vs. 51.0), though Services (52.5 vs. 51.6) and the Composite (50.9 vs. 51.0) fared better. However, the fear that UK inflation will continue to present a large problem is forcing gilts to underperform. On top of that, the threat of looming labour strife only intensifies the risks ahead. The FTSE 100 underperformed, falling -0.61%.

Following headlines from the Saudi energy minister yesterday, Brent crude oil rallied +3.39% closing above $100/bbl for the first time since late July. While progress on the Iranian nuclear deal still seemed positive, up to nine OPEC+ members confirmed they would support production cuts if Iranian supply came back online or if the global economy entered a recession, fueling the rally.

Overnight, Asian equity markets are again slipping into the red this morning amid growth fears. The Hang Seng (-1.49%) is leading losses with the Shanghai Composite (-1.38%), the CSI (-0.63%) and the Nikkei (-0.40%) all trading in negative territory. Elsewhere, the Kospi (+0.02%) is oscillating between gains and losses after opening higher.

Moving on to FX news, the Chinese Yuan (-0.42%) fell to its weakest level in almost two years against the US dollar, trading at 6.86 per dollar, as the PBOC looks to ease policy to support the economy while property sector troubles remain top of mind.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari in an overnight speech reiterated the need for more aggressive rate hikes to control inflation and sees another two full percentage points by the end of next year. Kashkari downplayed the two-sided risk of Fed tightening that has permeated recent discourse, noting that if inflation were at 4%, he would be willing to consider a more gradual path to avoid the risk of overdoing tightening. Alas, it is not.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the preliminary durable goods orders and core capital goods orders for July, along with pending home sales for that month too. Otherwise, earnings releases include Nvidia, Salesforce and Royal Bank of Canada.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 07:33

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/T280YZg Tyler Durden

The Numbers Don’t Lie; The Fed Won’t Win This Inflation Fight

The Numbers Don’t Lie; The Fed Won’t Win This Inflation Fight

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

The central bankers at the Federal Reserve continue to talk tough about fighting inflation.

But is it a fight they can win?

The numbers say no.

After the CPI data cooled a bit in July, many observers expected the Fed to declare victory and begin pivoting away from tightening monetary policy. Instead, the central bankers doubled down on the tough talk. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said the Fed remains “far, far away from declaring victory” on inflation. He went on to say he hasn’t seen anything that changes the trajectory of the Fed’s inflation fight. Kaskari remained adamant that the central bank needs raise rates to 3.9% by the end of the year and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. He even insisted he won’t be deterred by a recession.

The markets seem to have faith in the Fed’s ability to bring inflation down to 2% and keep it there for most of the next 30 years. Peter Schiff said they are “living in fantasy land.”

There is no way the Fed is going to even come close to achieving that for 30 years. They’re not even going to achieve it for three years. Yet, investors are still operating under the delusion that the Federal Reserve can do what it claims it’s going to do.

Peter is right.

For all the tough talk about stopping inflation, the Fed’s plan isn’t enough.

Pushing rates to 3 or 4 percent won’t tame 8.5% CPI.

If you look at all of the Fed tightening cycles since 1973, the central bank has never stopped tightening before the Fed funds rate was higher than the CPI.

It’s clear from the chart that the Fed has a lot of tightening to do before it brings the real rate positive. It’s also clear that 3 or 4 percent isn’t going to get the job done.

Analyzing interest rates based on the Taylor Rule leads us to the same conclusion.

Economist John Taylor came up with a formula that links the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate to levels of inflation and economic growth. Based on the Taylor Rule, the Fed fund rate needs to be 9.69% assuming 2% real neutral rates.

Given the history and the model, it is difficult to fathom how exactly the Federal Reserve is going to tame inflation over the long term.

Keep in mind that the CPI is actually higher than the government numbers suggest. If we use the CPI formula from the 1970s, rates would need to be over 17% in order to slay inflation.

And while the 3 or 4 percent interest rate won’t stop the inflation freight train, it will pop the bubble economy that was built on easy money and debt. In fact, we’re already in a recession despite mainstream pleading to the contrary. This is why Peter Schiff says we are about to experience the worst of both worlds – high inflation and a recession.

I’m not going to give credit to the Federal Reserve for trying to put out a fire that it lit. And by the way, they’re not even putting enough water on it to put it out. The Fed should have raised interest rates a lot more than it already has. And it should be raising them a lot more. It’s gone much too slow. And not because the economy can handle it. It can’t. We’re already in a recession. They just want to ignore that. The recession is going to get worse if the Fed continues to raise interest rates. But it shouldn’t stop just because it’s going to put the economy into a depression or create a financial crisis. It has to do that. The only way to fight inflation is to remove all the inflation from the economy that the Fed put in there. So, they have to shrink their balance sheet. They have to let interest rates go way up. They have to force the government to slash government spending. But unfortunately, none of that is going to happen. This recession is going to get much worse, and Powell is going to pivot in defeat. He’s going to focus his attention on trying to stimulate the economy and let inflation run out of control.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 07:20

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Protecting People from Their Own Religious Communities: Pseudonymity in Litigation

This new article of mine will be coming out next year in the Journal of Law and Religion, and I thought I’d serialize it here; there’s still plenty of time for editing, so I’d love to hear people’s feedback. Here’s Part I.A.

[* * *]

Let’s begin by laying out the areas where this issue can arise, starting with pseudonymity in litigation.

Generally speaking, American law requires all parties to a lawsuit to be named, so that the public can better monitor the activities of public courts deciding cases using public funds, in the public’s name, and relying on government coercive power.[1] Indeed, some courts see this as a facet of members of the public’s First Amendment rights to access court records.[2] This rule isn’t absolute: Sometimes parties can appear pseudonymously, and one factor that courts consider is whether publicly identifying a party would cause “social stigma” beyond mere “personal embarrassment” or mere damage to reputation.[3] But courts are sharply split on what sorts of social stigma qualify; for instance, some courts have let plaintiffs claiming to have been sexually assaulted proceed pseudonymously, but others haven’t.[4]

Yet when plaintiff argues that publicly identifying her (or, somewhat more rarely, him) would cause special stigma because of the likely reactions of her religious community, courts often cite that as a special reason for pseudonymity, for example:

The Court recognizes that victims of sexual assault often wish to keep their identities secret out of fear of embarrassment or social stigmatization. Those concerns alone, however, are insufficient to permit a plaintiff to proceed under a pseudonym. Doe v. Princeton Univ., 2019 WL 5587327, at *4 (D.N.J. Oct. 30, 2019). However, if a movant shows that her specific circumstances demonstrate a risk of serious social stigmatization surpassing a general fear of embarrassment, courts may consider those circumstances in favor of granting the motion. Doe v. Neverson, 820 F. App’x 984, 988 (11th Cir. 2020) (reversing the denial of a motion to proceed under a pseudonym because the district court failed to consider the potential significant social stigmatization on account of the movant’s membership in “a strict Muslim household where under their cultural beliefs and traditions such a sexual assault would have the tendency to bring shame and humiliation upon [the movant’s] family.”).[5]

The same has arisen as to potentially controversial voluntary sex-related behavior. One court allowed an erotic dancer to litigate her wages-and-hours claim pseudonymous­ly in part because “her parents are devoutly religious members of a Christian church.”[6] The Seventh Circuit granted, without discussion, a motion that similarly justified pseudonymity for Notre Dame students who were admitting premarital sexual activity and contraceptive use (or at least use of contraceptives that some view as abortifacients).[7]

Still other cases granted motions for pseudonymity on the grounds that the plaintiffs were suing religious leaders (Orthodox rabbis), and their religious community was alleged to be hostile to those who air accusations before outsiders.[8] Those cases also involved alleged sexual victimization, but their logic would apply to other intra-community disputes as well; one case, for instance, relied on an article that

describes at length the cultural factors within the Orthodox Jewish community inhibiting dissent among its members, including: “the overwhelming concern with shame (a child who makes an abuse claim can be thought to bring shame on his whole family);” “the thinking that virtually any public complaint about another person amounts to slander;” and the notion that “say[ing] anything bad about the community” would be “desecrating God’s name.”[9]

Two other cases allowed pseudonymity for people who had been accused of sexual misconduct, and who were suing their universities on the grounds that they had been wrongly disciplined based on such allegations. Their theory was that litigating would make clear that they had engaged in premarital sex (though, they argued, consensual premarital sex), and that revealing this would stigmatize them in their community.

In one of the cases, the court accepted the argument that pseudonymity was proper because the alleged abuser was a citizen of Kuwait, “where ‘sexual activity outside of marriage goes against religious and cultural values’ and ‘sexual relations outside of marriage are illegal,'” which creates a “heightened risk of stigma and retaliation the plaintiff alleges that [he] faces in his home country.”[10] In the other, the court accepted the argument that “this case involves students who attend a strictly religious school that expressly prohibits pre-marital sex”; that “[m]any of these students, including Plaintiff, seek entry into the clergy or religious-affiliated groups after graduation”; and that “disclosure of their identities in connection with their extra-marital sexual activities risks exposing Plaintiff, as well as the unnamed students, to ridicule and even ostracization from their own religious community.”[11]

And in principle, the same argument could arise with regard to lawsuits that stem from, say, altercations at bars or casinos, filed by plaintiffs whose religious communities frown on alcohol or gambling;[12] lawsuits over interest-bearing debt transactions filed by plaintiffs whose religious communities condemn such transactions; or divorce suits—or for that matter any claims that would require mentioning a litigant’s divorce—when the litigant’s religious community condemns divorce.[13]

As it happens, all the decided cases involve situations where some courts would allow pseudonymity even absent concerns about opprobrium in a religious community. Many cases, for instance, do allow pseudonymity for plaintiffs alleging sexual assault, and for plaintiffs alleging unsound university accusations of assault.[14] Some cases have done the same for defendants who are sued for allegedly copying pornography, and for erotic dancers who are suing for labor law violations.[15] And while I know of no cases that have allowed pseudonymity related merely to claims of contraceptive use, some cases have allowed pseudonymity as to sexual matters more broadly.[16] There thus is no crisp scenario in which litigants definitely cannot normally get pseudonymity, but can get it if they belong to a particular religious community.

But at the same time, in all these scenarios, some courts do deny pseudonymity to ordinary litigants.[17] And the cases cited above show that the claimed reactions of the litigant’s religious community are being treated as one factor cutting in favor of pseudonymity.

Moreover, the cases are focusing on the litigant’s religious community. For instance, the fact that a litigant’s actions—or even just what the litigant is accused of—would lead to opprobrium within the litigant’s professional community, to the point of potential economic ruin, is generally rejected as a basis for pseudonymity.[18] Likewise, if an Alcoholics Anonymous leader seeks pseudonymity in a lawsuit stemming from a drunk driving arrest or a bar fight, on the grounds that identifying him would reveal that he had been drinking and might diminish his standing among AA members, it seems unlikely that he would get pseudonymity.[19] It is the religious basis for the potential opprobrium that weighs in favor of the litigant.

To be sure, considering religion in such situations might be sound. Recognizing that some people might be more vulnerable to community stigma because of their religious community membership could well be praised as the governmental “neutrality in the face of religious differences” that Sherbert v. Verner[20] said was at least constitutionally permissible (even though it wouldn’t be constitutionally mandatory here, for reasons discussed in Part II). My point here is simply that the law here, like some other accommodations of religion, is indeed treating religion specially.

For a helpful contrast, consider concerns about actual physical violence rather than social or professional stigma. When there is evidence of real risk of such violence—for instance, possible physical retaliation against people who cooperated with the government[21] or risk of violence against an asylum seeker in his home country[22]—courts do indeed generally allow pseudonymity, entirely apart from whether the violence stems from religious views.[23] The same would apply to people who fear religion-related violence, as in Doe v. Dordoni, which allowed pseudonymity based on a reasonable fear of violent reprisal in Saudi Arabia based on a Saudi citizen’s conversion from Islam to Christianity.[24]

And if a woman suing for sexual assault can credibly show that, if she is publicly identified as a rape victim, she faces a serious risk of “honor killing” (or even nondeadly violence) from family members,[25] that would suffice to justify pseudonymity under normal religion-neutral pseudonymity precedents.[26] The rule allowing pseudonymity in order to diminish a risk of physical violence would thus be religion-neutral in such cases. Not so with the courts’ allowing pseudonymity to prevent social retaliation by a religious community.

 

[1] See Volokh, supra note 1, at 1366–68.

[2] See, e.g., DePuy Synthes Prod., Inc. v. Veterinary Orthopedic Implants, Inc., 990 F.3d 1364, 1370 (Fed. Cir. 2021); In re Sealed Case, 931 F.3d 92, 96 (D.C. Cir. 2019); United States v. Microsoft Corp., 56 F.3d 1448, 1464 (D.C. Cir. 1995); Doe v. Stegall, 653 F.2d 180, 185 (5th Cir. 1981); Ramsbottom v. Ashton, No. 3:21-cv-00272, 2021 WL 2651188, at *2 (M.D. Tenn. June 28, 2021); Doe v. Paychex, Inc., No. 3:17-cv-2031, 2020 WL 219377, at *10 (D. Conn. Jan. 15, 2020); Doe v. Del Rio, 241 F.R.D. 154, 156 (S.D.N.Y. 2006); Dep’t of Fair Emp. & Housing v. Superior Court, __ Cal. App. 4th __, __ (2022); Doe v. Kidd, 19 Misc. 3d 782, 788 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. 2008).

[3] Id. at pt. III.E. This has to do with public identification; the defendant would of course need to be able to know the plaintiff’s identity. Id. at 1362 n.25. Cf. United States v. Lamprecht, No 1:16-cr-00640-BMC, at 2, 5–6 (E.D.N.Y. Jan. 16, 2019) (noting that the court had allowed the government to delay disclosing to defendants certain materials about the witnesses against them, because “the Government claimed that these cooperating witnesses expressed fear that they would be subject to ostracism and harassment if their cooperation against fellow members of their religious community was revealed,” but noting that this was just a delay rather than a categorical denial, and “defendants received the deferred . . . production sufficiently in advance of trial to obviate any prejudice resulting from the delayed disclosure”).

[4] See Volokh, supra note 1, at 1430–37.

[5] Doe v. Cook Cty., 542 F. Supp. 3d 779, 784, 787 (N.D. Ill. 2021); see also Doe v. Neverson, 820 F. App’x 984 (11th Cir. 2020); Doe v. Barr, No. 1:20-cv-03553, 2020 WL 12674163 (D.D.C. Dec. 4, 2020); Doe v. City of Dalton, No. 4:21-cv-00128-LMM, at 2–3 (N.D. Ga. July 12, 2021); Doe v. Amal, No. 1:12-cv-1359 (E.D. Va. Nov. 29, 2012), granting Motion, id. (Nov. 27, 2012) (arguing in part, id. at 6, that plaintiff “is particularly vulnerable to increased emotional trauma and social stigmatization because she is part of a conservative Muslim community that condemns and criminalizes sex outside of marriage”); Roe v. Patterson, No. 419CV00179ALMKPJ, 2019 WL 2407380 (E.D. Tex. June 3, 2019) (noting, but not heavily relying on, plaintiff’s argument that “she seeks to protect her identity not merely to avoid humiliation, but because she has suffered (and continues to suffer) physical and emotional injury, loss of self-esteem, disgrace, and humiliation, as well as spiritual suffering due to her devout Christian beliefs,” and “that as a result of the assaults she was ‘damaged goods’ and ‘no Godly man would ever want her'”); Memorandum of Law in Support of Plaintiffs’ Motion . . . to Proceed Anonymously, Kashef v. BNP Paribas S.A., No. 1:16-cv-03228-AJN (S.D.N.Y. June 7, 2021) (“The Anonymous Plaintiffs have heightened concerns about their private information [about having been raped and having contracted HIV] being known to the public and by their children, as well as a fear of being ostracized in their respective Muslim and Christian communities.”), granted id. (June 22, 2021) (though without discussion of religion); Letter Motion, id. at 2 (Feb. 6, 2017) (making a similar request but just referring to plaintiffs’ “close knit community of Sudanese-Americans”), granted id (Feb. 7, 2017) (again without discussion of community views).

[6] Doe #1 v. Deja Vu Consulting Inc., No. 3:17-CV-00040, 2017 WL 3837730, *5 (M.D. Tenn. Sept. 1, 2017).

[7] Univ. of Notre Dame v. Sebelius, No. 13-3853 (7th Cir. Jan. 14, 2014), granting Motion, id. (Dec. 19, 2013) (discussion of religious community’s potential reaction is at id. at 16–18).

[8] Doe No. 2 v. Kolko, 242 F.R.D. 193, 197 (E.D.N.Y. 2006); Doe v. Georgetown Synagogue—Kesher Israel Congregation, No. 1:16-cv-01845-ABJ (D.D.C. Sept. 15, 2016), granting Motion for Leave to Proceed Under Pseudonyms, id. (Sept. 15, 2016); Doe v. Georgetown Univ., No. 14-0007644 (D.C. Super. Ct. Dec. 1, 2014), granting Motion, id. at 6–7 (Dec. 8, 2014), available in Superior Court Documents, Doe v. Georgetown Univ., No. 1:15-cv-00026 (D.D.C. Jan. 8, 2015) (ECF No. 1-4). Indeed, some Jews disapprove of Jews suing other Jews—even ones who aren’t religious leaders—in secular courts. Michael J. Broyde, The Pursuit of Justice and Jewish Law: Halakhic Perspectives on the Legal Profession 62–64 (2002); Rabbi Yaacov Feit, The Prohibition Against Going to Secular Courts, 1 Journal of the Beth Din of America 30, 30–31 (2012) (“One who goes to secular court is considered ‘an evildoer, as if he has blasphemed, and as if he has raised a hand against the Torah of Moses.'”).

[9] Kolko, 242 F.R.D. at 197.

[10] Doe v. Am. Univ., No. 1:19-cv-03097, at 5–6 (D.D.C. Oct. 10, 2019), granting Motion, id. at 1, 6 (Oct. 10, 2019); see Doe v. Am. Univ., No. 19-CV-03097 (APM), 2020 WL 5593909, *1 (D.D.C. Sept. 18, 2020).

[11] Memorandum, Doe v. Dordt Univ., 5:19-cv-04082-CJW-KEM, at 15 (N.D. Iowa Dec. 5, 2019), granted, id. (Mar. 3, 2020) (granting pseudonymity because “this case involves intimate details of sexual contact between two college students” and “naming Plaintiff would result in the type of harm to reputation he seeks to avoid by bringing this action,” though not specifically mentioning the harm within the religious community). Dordt University, an evangelical Christian school affiliated with the Christian Reformed Church in North America, indeed stresses that it “firmly holds to the biblical teaching that premarital intercourse is forbidden. Further, behavior (e.g. nudity, lying in bed together) that encourages such intimacy will not be tolerated by the university. Students involved in such behavior will face disciplinary action.” Dordt University, Student Life, https://ift.tt/wladQ4L.

[12] Compare, in a different sort of privacy context, Oil, Chem. & Atomic Workers Int’l Union, AFL-CIO, Loc. 2-286 v. Amoco Oil Co. (Salt Lake City Refinery), 885 F.2d 697, 707 (10th Cir. 1989), where the court blocked a unionized employer’s unilateral adoption of a drug and alcohol testing policy, partly because of “the invasion of privacy threatened by Amoco’s testing program, and the potential for stigmatization and humiliation of its employees,” which “would potentially be all the more severe because of the close-knit character of the employees and the fact that the predominant religion in the community [presumably Mormonism] proscribes the drinking of alcoholic beverages,” so that “[t]he consequences of revelations about drug or alcohol use could have long term consequences for a member of such a community.”

[13] In one case, the court refused to vacate a final divorce when the parties had reconciled, despite the parties’ desire to avoid condemnation by their religious community:

[P]laintiff’s counsel[] urged . . . that the parties sought to avoid religious stigma in their communities that allegedly attaches to divorce. If that contention is the case, they should have considered alleged religious, community, and cultural opprobrium before they both consented to an uncontested civil divorce. At any rate, the Court does not bow to alleged religious sentiments or convictions that may attach to divorce. Civic marriage and divorce should not be entangled with religious marriage and divorce. Preventing embarrassment to former litigants, moreover, is not a worthy allocation of judicial resources.

Doe v. Doe, 29 Misc. 3d 483, 486–87 (2010). Yet despite that, the court took an unusual step: “In order to avoid unnecessary embarrassment to the parties, the Court has concealed their names in this version of the opinion submitted for publication, referring to the husband and wife as John Doe and Jane Doe and hiding the correct index number.” Id. at 484. (In the absence of any religious community concerns, references to divorce aren’t generally viewed by courts as justifying pseudonymity, see Doe v. Bd. of Regents of Univ. of N.M., No. CIV 20-1207 JB/JHR, 2021 WL 4034136, *1 (D.N.M. Sept. 4, 2021).)

[14] See Volokh, supra note 1, at Apps. 2a & 2b.

[15] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[16] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[17] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[18] See id. at pt. III.E.1.c.

[19] This would likely fall within the familiar principle that mere risk of harm to reputation and of “social stigmatization” doesn’t justify pseudonymity. See id. at pt. III.F; Balerna v. Bosco, No. HHD-CV-176082264S, 2017 WL 6884041, at *2 (Conn. Super. Ct. Dec. 6, 2017) (rejecting pseudonymity when the parties merely “wish to protect themselves from embarrassment and/or economic harm in their respective professional and social communities as a result of having to proceed using their true names”).

[20] 374 U.S. 398, 409 (1963).

[21] See United States v. Doe, 655 F.2d 920, 922 n.1 (9th Cir. 1980) (pseudonymizing a litigant’s name because of the “risk of serious bodily harm if [prison inmate’s] role on behalf of the Government were disclosed to other inmates”); Doe No. 1 v. United States, 143 Fed. Cl. 238, 241 (2019) (“[D]isclosing the names of BATF employees could endanger them.”).

[22] See Volokh, supra note 1, at pt. III.A.

[23] Id. at pt. III.B.

[24] No. 1:16-CV-00074-JHM, 2016 WL 4522672, *3 (W.D. Ky. Aug. 29, 2016).

[25] In Doe v. Barr, No. 1:20-cv-03553, 2020 WL 12674163 (D.D.C. Dec. 4, 2020), plaintiff argued that there was such a risk, id. at 5, but the judge allowed her to be pseudonymous based solely on the possible danger of “reputational harm” within her community, id. at 6.

[26] The same might apply with regard to other serious harms that go beyond stigma or social or professional retaliation, even if they don’t rise to the level of violence. Thus, for instance, Wolfchild v. United States, 62 Fed. Cl. 521, 553 (2004), rev’d on other grounds, 559 F.3d 1228 (Fed. Cir. 2009), allowed certain Sioux plaintiffs to proceed pseudonymously, because of a concern that the tribe would disapprove of their position in the lawsuit; the court stressed the risk not just of social opprobrium but also of the tangible legal consequence of lost tribal membership (since “the community governments possess nearly a plenary power over community membership,” 62 Fed. Cl. at 553).

The post Protecting People from Their Own Religious Communities: Pseudonymity in Litigation appeared first on Reason.com.

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For Many Americans, Cancel Culture is Self-Inflicted


Profile of a man holding a finger up to his mouth in a gesture for silence against a white background

Free societies emphasize the ability to voice opinions and debate with those who disagree without fear of penalty. Political systems that punish people for espousing “wrong” ideas are unfree no matter how they try to justify the constraints they impose on speech. But what happens when a society retains the forms of freedom, but its culture becomes intolerant of dissent and imposes unofficial penalties on those who stray in their public statements? Americans are finding out what it means to live that way with the resurgence of an old flaw called out early in this country’s history.

“Social pressure to have the ‘right’ opinion is pervasive in America today,” notes Populace, a social-research organization, in a report published this summer. “In recent years, polls have consistently found that most Americans, across all demographics, feel they cannot share their honest opinions in public for fear of offending others or incurring retribution.”

“One important, but underappreciated, consequence of a culture of censorship is that it can lead individuals not only to self-silence, but also publicly misrepresent their own private views (what scholars call preference falsification),” the authors add.

Given the events of recent years, it’s no surprise that some big disconnects are over COVID-19 responses and the management of public schools, which have become merciless battlefields.

“A majority of people say publicly that mask wearing was effective, but they don’t believe it in private,” Populace notes. “Whereas 59 percent of Americans publicly agree that wearing a mask was an effective way to stop the spread of COVID-19, only 47 percent privately hold that view (a 12-point gap).”

The pressures people face vary by demographic group. Americans of parenting age often feel compelled to take public stances at odds with their private beliefs as to what goes on in classrooms.

“For people between the ages of 30 and 44, the two biggest public-private gaps both relate to education. First, the vast majority (74 percent) of people in this age group privately think parents should have more influence over public school curriculums, but only 48 percent are willing to say so publicly. Second, while in public a majority (60 percent) say discussing gender identity in public schools is inappropriate for young children (K-3), in private this is not the majority view (only 40 percent privately agree).”

These varying pressures can exaggerate disagreements in weird ways, as white and black Americans feel conflicting social pressure when it comes to the opinions they voice about the treatment of race.

“About 1 in 2 White Americans (50 percent) agrees public schools focus too much on racism in the U.S., but only 38 percent agree with the same statement when granted privacy through a list experiment. The opposite effect holds true for Black Americans—despite 16 percent of Black Americans agreeing with the statement publicly, more than one-quarter (28 percent) agree privately.”

Socially acceptable opinions vary based on race, age, income, partisan affiliation, educational level, and sex, but across demographic divides, many Americans feel compelled to mouth opinions at odds with their true beliefs. It’s a phenomenon noted before, in totalitarian countries.

“As Milosz had himself observed about intellectuals under totalitarianism, the need for survival often involved more than just keeping your mouth shut. Tough moments could often arise where you had to make positive, public affirmations of loyalty and even enthusiasm,” the late Christopher Hitchens commented in 2004 about the Polish writer and diplomat Czeslaw Milosz, who defected to the West in 1951. Milosz’s The Captive Mind (1953) is a classic study of oppressive political systems.

But Milosz described societies in which dissidents could be arrested, imprisoned, or shot for challenging acceptable opinion. That’s not the case in the United States of 2022. Instead of secret police, Americans face Twitter mobs, sniffy neighbors, outraged co-workers, and upset bosses. That’s enough to nudge many people to conform with the prevailing views in their communities so as to avoid opprobrium. It’s an unfortunate weakness, but one observed about this country long ago.

“I know of no country where, in general, there reigns less independence of mind and true freedom of discussion than in America,” Alexis de Tocqueville wrote in Volume 2, Chapter 7, of Democracy in America. “In America, the majority draws a formidable circle around thought. Within these limits, the writer is free; but woe to him if he dares to go beyond them. It isn’t that he has to fear an auto-da-fé, but he is exposed to all types of distasteful things and to everyday persecutions.”

“Everyday persecutions” sounds like today’s “cancel culture” of snubbing, firing, and deplatforming—informal means of punishing people for their opinions. The French observer saw Americans of the 1830s facing social pressures similar to those described by Populace researchers. Those pressures nudge people to edit their own views and espouse beliefs they don’t actually hold.

But America is fragmented, and so the “right” opinions people feel obligated to mouth vary from community to community. So, 44 percent of Democrats publicly insist corporate CEOs should take stands on controversial issues, but only 11 percent believe that in private. In public, 39 percent of Asian-Americans say the U.S. should completely phase out use of fossil fuels, but only 13 percent privately agree. A 64 percent majority of Republicans publicly favored overturning Roe v. Wade, but only 51 percent agree in private. A 61 percent majority of political independents publicly say that whether someone is a man or woman is determined by their sex at birth, but 45 percent really believe that. And 42 percent of those 18-29 years old privately believe racism is built into the economy, government, and educational system, although 65 percent say that in public. In sometimes contradictory ways, Americans are misrepresenting what they actually believe to endorse views they don’t really hold.

“This trend is concerning because of the threat that it poses to individual freedoms, community flourishing, and democratic self-government,” Populace researchers note.

“The democratic republics of today have made violence as entirely intellectual as the human will that it wants to constrain. Under the absolute government of one man, despotism, to reach the soul, crudely struck the body; and the soul, escaping from these blows, rose gloriously above it; but in democratic republics, tyranny does not proceed in this way; it leaves the body alone and goes right to the soul,” de Tocqueville commented in rather more evocative form.

Fixing this situation is no easy task, since there are no laws to reform, but rather a culture that needs an infusion of tolerance and people who require stiffer backbones. That leaves us to marvel at the quality of debate among people who inflict on themselves the constraints suffered by residents of totalitarian states, not out of fear of a knock in the night, but from concern over what the neighbors might think.

The post For Many Americans, Cancel Culture is Self-Inflicted appeared first on Reason.com.

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Return To The Office? Don’t Bank On It

Return To The Office? Don’t Bank On It

The much-awaited/dreaded (insert as appropriate) return to the office is far from complete, and, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong details below, in a large number of companies and sectors is unlikely to ever really take place.

According to a June/July survey by Advanced Workplace Associates in 13 countries, 13 sectors, 28 organizations and 79 offices (representing 77,410 employees), “average attendance in offices is just 26 percent, with peaks in the middle of the week of no more than a third of employees in the office.

As this infographic highlights, the difference in attendance varies widely from sector to sector.

Infographic: Return to the Office? Don't Bank On It | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Banking reported the highest average attendance rates with a total of 47 percent, while at the other end of the scale is logistics and tech.

The latter has generated media attention over the last few months. Giants of the industry such as Google, Apple and Tesla have each been struggling to engineer a solution which simultaneously satisfies the companies’ desire to get their employees back at their desks, as well as the seemingly large shares of their workforces which would rather maintain the new status quo of remote or hybrid working.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 06:55

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Finland Braces For Rolling Blackouts This Winter

Finland Braces For Rolling Blackouts This Winter

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Finland should be prepared for possible power outages this winter in case of shortfalls in electricity supply, the Finnish grid operator said on Tuesday, in yet another warning of an energy crunch in Europe after gas supply from Russia was severely reduced.

In Finland’s case, Gazprom stopped in May all gas deliveries to Russia’s neighbor to the West, making Finland the third EU member state with Russian pipeline supply cut off after Poland and Bulgaria. The halt of Russian supply to Finland took place days after Finland—together with its Scandinavian neighbor Sweden—formally applied to join NATO in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has warned both countries against applying to become NATO members.

Finland gets up to 70 percent of the gas it uses from Russia, but gas doesn’t have a large share in the overall energy mix and accounts for 5 percent of total energy consumption.

“The war in Europe and the exceptional situation on the energy market have increased uncertainties related to the availability of electricity. As a result of the great uncertainties, Finns should be prepared for power outages caused by possible electricity shortages this coming winter,” Finnish grid operator Fingrid said today.

According to Fingrid, the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant would compensate for the missing Russian imports.   

“In practice, in the event of an electricity shortage, Fingrid will inform the local distribution network companies of the total amount of power to be disconnected from each distribution network company’s area, and after this, power outages will be recycled as two-hour outages until the electricity shortage has ended,” said Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operation, at Fingrid. 

Also in the Nordic region, Norway is considering limiting its electricity exports if levels at reservoirs for hydropower generation drop to critically low levels in a bid to prevent power shortages and further rises in energy bills domestically.

Last week, the other Nordic grid operators—Fingrid, Svenska Kraftnät of Sweden, and Energinet of Denmark—called on Norway to reconsider plans for limiting its exports.

“If export restrictions were to be allowed under the current European electricity regulation, we fear that such a step could inspire other countries to consider similar restrictions and thus causing a much bigger negative effect on both the Nordic and the European electricity markets,” the operators said.  

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 06:30

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Belgian PM Warns “Next 5-10 Winters Will Be Difficult” As Energy Crisis Worsens

Belgian PM Warns “Next 5-10 Winters Will Be Difficult” As Energy Crisis Worsens

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo might have spilled the beans about the duration of Europe’s energy crisis. He told reporters Monday, “the next 5 to 10 winters will be difficult.” 

“The development of the situation is very difficult throughout Europe,” De Croo told Belgium broadcaster VRT. 

“In a number of sectors, it is really difficult to deal with those high energy prices. We are monitoring this closely, but we must be transparent: the coming months will be difficult, the coming winters will be difficult,” he said. 

The prime minister’s comments suggest replacing Russian natural gas imports could take years, exerting further economic doom on the region’s economy in the form of energy hyperinflation.

Europe faces a historic energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine (and Western sanctions that have backfired). The continent heavily relies on Russia for its energy needs, importing about 40% of NatGas. At just 20% capacity with risks of going to zero next month, Russian supplies via Gazprom’s Nord Stream 1 have sent NatGas and power prices to record highs this week. 

European NatGas prices soared to a record high of 277 euros per megawatt-hour on Monday, about 15 times the average summertime price. Leon Izbicki, a commodity analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., told Bloomberg if NS1 flows come to a halt in September, prices could rise to 400 euros per megawatt-hour. 

Bloomberg’s commodities reporter Javier Blas tweeted a map of day-ahead electricity prices across Europe. He called the prices “eye-watering, with lots of countries setting record highs for today.” 

The shift from Russian NatGas supplies has backfired for the 19-nation eurozone. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, could be headed for a recession that will bring down the rest of the continent. 

De Croo said Belgium and the eurozone must “support each other in these difficult times.”

Europe’s dark winter could be a yearly occurrence throughout this decade if the prime minister is right. The widely optimistic idea that the bloc could replace all Russian Natgas imports this year was a farce, and now European households must pay exorbitantly high power costs, forcing millions into energy poverty

Even though Germany admitted that it was a terrible mistake to become so dependent on cheap Russian energy — like a drug — how long does it take for Berlin to go back to its dealer [Moscow] for resupplies and defect from the rest of Europe because it doesn’t want to freeze to death this winter nor crash its economy.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/24/2022 – 05:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/UMpHvlF Tyler Durden