Stocks & Bonds Soar, Dollar Pukes As Dismal Data Dump Reignites ‘Fed Pivot’ Narrative

Stocks & Bonds Soar, Dollar Pukes As Dismal Data Dump Reignites ‘Fed Pivot’ Narrative

A malarkey of ugly data this morning (Services PMI and new home sales collapsing) has reignited hopes for a Fed Pivot – to be signaled by Powell this Friday.

Rate-hike expectations are sliding…

The odds of a 75bps hike in September is back below 50%…

The dollar has dovishly puked…

Stocks spiked, led by cyclicals/growthy stocks…

And bond yields plunged…

Bitcoin and Bullion are also rallying.

This is cornering Powell even more since, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted yesterday, his words have to actually TIGHTEN FCI in order to achieve their “inflation fighting” mandate in order to kill demand.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 10:25

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Watch: Biden Energy ‘Transition’ Czar Tells Poor People To Buy Solar Panels

Watch: Biden Energy ‘Transition’ Czar Tells Poor People To Buy Solar Panels

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Once again showing how completely out of touch with reality they are, the Biden Administration’s Energy Secretary has suggested that Americans facing hardship as the cost of living spirals should buy solar panels.

Appearing on Fox News, Jennifer Granholm touted so called green initiatives under the Orwellian titled ‘Inflation Reduction Act’.

“If you are low income, you can get your home entirely weatherized through the expansion from the bipartisan infrastructure laws, a significant expansion — you don’t have to pay for anything,” she claimed, adding, “”If you want heat pumps, insulation, new windows, that is covered.”

She then advised lower middle class Americans to take out credit to get solar panels.

“If you are moderate income, today you can get 30% off the price of solar panels. Those solar panels can be financed, so you don’t have to have the big outlay at the front,” Granholm stated.

She continued, “If you don’t qualify for the weatherization program, you will be able to, starting next year, get rebates on the appliances and equipment that will help you reduce your monthly energy bill by up to 30%. That is all about reducing costs for people.”

The comments come after months of Granholm and other minions touting electric cars, which cost over 60 grand.

The backlash was swift:

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 10:19

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Thoughts on the First Episode of “House of the Dragon”


House of the Dragon

NOTE: This post contains some minor spoilers for Fire and Blood, the George R.R. Martin book on which the TV series is based.

On Sunday night, HBO aired the first episode of House of the Dragon, the prequel series to the hugely successful – but also highly controversial – Game of Thrones. The new series is based on part of George R.R. Martin’s book Fire and Blood, the history of House Targaryen’s rule over the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros. It is set some 200 years before the events of GOT, and focuses on civil conflict known as the “Dance of the Dragons” and the events leading up to it.

At the time House of the Dragon,  the Targaryen dynasty is firmly in control of the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms. And there are plenty of dragons! The Targaryens’ control over them is one of the foundations of their power. But a potential succession crisis is brewing over King Viserys’ lack of a direct male heir. While the King has a daughter, Princess Rhaenyra, many Westerosi are unwilling to accept a female ruler. Viserys is reluctant to name his brother, Prince Daemon as his successor, because – among other things – Daemon seems violent and unstable.

It’s too early to say how good the new series will be overall. But the first episode was a strong start. The acting, visuals, plot, and pace, were all excellent. Perhaps the most compelling element of the pilot is the way it was able to generate sympathy for the main characters, even though almost all of them are actually awful people. This is possible, in part, because many of their worst deeds lie in the future. But it’s an achievement nonetheless.

If you have read the book on which the series is based, you know that there are few, if any admirable people among the key figures in the story. This is not the tale of a conflict between good and evil, or even between a greater evil and a much lesser one. Both sides are awful, arguably to roughly the same degree.

The “Dance of the Dragons” largely lacks sympathetic protagonists, like Arya, Sansa, Tyrion, Jon Snow, and (until late in the series) Daenerys Targaryen, in Game of Thrones. Despite this obstacle, the pilot episode nonetheless generates considerable sympathy for the major characters. It does so by highlighting the understandable nature of their motivations, and the difficult situations they find themselves in.

The series also turns King Viserys I into a more substantial and compelling figure than he is in the book. This can be defended on the grounds that the book narrator (a fictional Westerosi historian) isn’t unbiased. Rhaenyra is also a sympathetic figure here, as well. We see her trying to make the best of a tough situation, and she doesn’t – yet – seem intent simply on pursuing power for its own sake.. While the show highlights Prince Daemon’s ambition and penchant for violence, even he has some good moments, as he makes some telling points on occasion.

It will be interesting to see how the series handles these characters as the story moves on. I don’t think it’s too much of a spoiler to note that their actions get more and more reprehensible over time!

In  addition to the problem of dealing with unsympathetic characters, a major challenge of adapting story of the “Dance of the Dragons” is figuring out what the theme of the story is. As I have discussed in previous writings (e.g. here and here), the big overarching theme of Game of Thrones is that the dangers of political power require institutional solutions, not merely the replacement of evil or incompetent rulers with seemingly good ones. If we are going to “break the wheel” of oppression, as Daenerys famously puts it, we need institutional change. This is an important idea, at odds with the typical focus of many science fiction and fantasy stories on individual heroes.

It is hard to say whether the “Dance of the Dragons” has any comparably powerful main theme to it. The most obvious candidate is a feminist message about how it’s wrong to reject the idea of female rulers. But, in 2022, this hardly comes off as a brilliant new insight. In addition, at least in the book, Princess Rhaenyra is hardly a poster girl for the virtues of female political leadership. In fairness, her mostly male adversaries are just as bad. But “women have the right to be evil rulers just like men” probably isn’t the best possible feminist message.

Of course, the series could potentially push other ideas. Or it could find a way to promote feminist ideals in spite of Rhaenyra’s shortcomings. The pilot nods to the latter possibility with its emphasis on the pain and danger women undergo in the process of giving birth (especially in a society without modern medicine), which is explicitly analogized to men’s suffering in warfare; even today, society honors the latter far more than the former, and the show suggests that attitude is deeply wrong. They could also potentially depict Rhaenyra as a far more admirable person than she is in the book, though I don’t see how that can be achieved without substantial plot changes.

I look forward to seeing how the show-runners handle these and other issues!

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Thoughts on the First Episode of “House of the Dragon”


House of the Dragon

NOTE: This post contains some minor spoilers for Fire and Blood, the George R.R. Martin book on which the TV series is based.

On Sunday night, HBO aired the first episode of House of the Dragon, the prequel series to the hugely successful – but also highly controversial – Game of Thrones. The new series is based on part of George R.R. Martin’s book Fire and Blood, the history of House Targaryen’s rule over the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros. It is set some 200 years before the events of GOT, and focuses on civil conflict known as the “Dance of the Dragons” and the events leading up to it.

At the time House of the Dragon,  the Targaryen dynasty is firmly in control of the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms. And there are plenty of dragons! The Targaryens’ control over them is one of the foundations of their power. But a potential succession crisis is brewing over King Viserys’ lack of a direct male heir. While the King has a daughter, Princess Rhaenyra, many Westerosi are unwilling to accept a female ruler. Viserys is reluctant to name his brother, Prince Daemon as his successor, because – among other things – Daemon seems violent and unstable.

It’s too early to say how good the new series will be overall. But the first episode was a strong start. The acting, visuals, plot, and pace, were all excellent. Perhaps the most compelling element of the pilot is the way it was able to generate sympathy for the main characters, even though almost all of them are actually awful people. This is possible, in part, because many of their worst deeds lie in the future. But it’s an achievement nonetheless.

If you have read the book on which the series is based, you know that there are few, if any admirable people among the key figures in the story. This is not the tale of a conflict between good and evil, or even between a greater evil and a much lesser one. Both sides are awful, arguably to roughly the same degree.

The “Dance of the Dragons” largely lacks sympathetic protagonists, like Arya, Sansa, Tyrion, Jon Snow, and (until late in the series) Daenerys Targaryen, in Game of Thrones. Despite this obstacle, the pilot episode nonetheless generates considerable sympathy for the major characters. It does so by highlighting the understandable nature of their motivations, and the difficult situations they find themselves in.

The series also turns King Viserys I into a more substantial and compelling figure than he is in the book. This can be defended on the grounds that the book narrator (a fictional Westerosi historian) isn’t unbiased. Rhaenyra is also a sympathetic figure here, as well. We see her trying to make the best of a tough situation, and she doesn’t – yet – seem intent simply on pursuing power for its own sake.. While the show highlights Prince Daemon’s ambition and penchant for violence, even he has some good moments, as he makes some telling points on occasion.

It will be interesting to see how the series handles these characters as the story moves on. I don’t think it’s too much of a spoiler to note that their actions get more and more reprehensible over time!

In  addition to the problem of dealing with unsympathetic characters, a major challenge of adapting story of the “Dance of the Dragons” is figuring out what the theme of the story is. As I have discussed in previous writings (e.g. here and here), the big overarching theme of Game of Thrones is that the dangers of political power require institutional solutions, not merely the replacement of evil or incompetent rulers with seemingly good ones. If we are going to “break the wheel” of oppression, as Daenerys famously puts it, we need institutional change. This is an important idea, at odds with the typical focus of many science fiction and fantasy stories on individual heroes.

It is hard to say whether the “Dance of the Dragons” has any comparably powerful main theme to it. The most obvious candidate is a feminist message about how it’s wrong to reject the idea of female rulers. But, in 2022, this hardly comes off as a brilliant new insight. In addition, at least in the book, Princess Rhaenyra is hardly a poster girl for the virtues of female political leadership. In fairness, her mostly male adversaries are just as bad. But “women have the right to be evil rulers just like men” probably isn’t the best possible feminist message.

Of course, the series could potentially push other ideas. Or it could find a way to promote feminist ideals in spite of Rhaenyra’s shortcomings. The pilot nods to the latter possibility with its emphasis on the pain and danger women undergo in the process of giving birth (especially in a society without modern medicine), which is explicitly analogized to men’s suffering in warfare; even today, society honors the latter far more than the former, and the show suggests that attitude is deeply wrong. They could also potentially depict Rhaenyra as a far more admirable person than she is in the book, though I don’t see how that can be achieved without substantial plot changes.

I look forward to seeing how the show-runners handle these and other issues!

 

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US New Home Sales Crashed In July, Lowest SAAR Since Jan 2016

US New Home Sales Crashed In July, Lowest SAAR Since Jan 2016

US new home sales were expected to slide once again July but the 12.6% MoM crash was shocking (vs -2.5% exp). This pushed new home sales down 29.6% YoY

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 6th monthly drop in new home sales in the last 7 months (with come notable downward revisions too).

This is the lowest SAAR for new home sales since Jan 2016

Source: Bloomberg

Supply of new homes is soaring, now at 10.9 months vs 9.2 in the prior month.

Both median and mean new home prices jumped too.

Median Home Price soared from 414.9K to 439.4K, just shy of record high 458.2K

Finally, given the plunge in purchase mortgage applications, new home sales has further to fall still…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this what Powell and his pals wanted?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 10:10

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Who’s Afraid Of Jackson Hole?

Who’s Afraid Of Jackson Hole?

By Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

The 10 year US treasury yield climbed above 3.00% yesterday and EUR/USD dived below parity. However, futures markets are still pricing in a “Fed pivot” in May 2023, so there is still upward potential for yields and downward potential for EUR/USD.

Higher rates also meant lower stock prices and the S&P500 fell by 2.14% yesterday. Speculation about possible hawkish comments from Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday has been rampant. He is scheduled to discuss the economic outlook, but markets will be more interested in his outlook for the federal funds rate.

As we discussed in Lost in translation, wishful thinking by the markets has led to a much anticipated “Fed pivot” in the first half of next year. This stands in sharp contrast to the Fed’s own rate projections, published in June, which are still valid as Fed Chair Powell stressed at the July meeting of the FOMC. The rate projections show an increase of the federal funds rate to 3.4% by the end of this year, followed by a further increase to 3.8% by the end of next year. At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s WIRP indicated a federal funds rate of 3.59% by the end of 2022, followed by a 3.74% peak in March 2023, and then a decline to 3.39% by the end of 2023. Perhaps markets are mistaking the Fed’s data dependence since June for a Fed pivot early next year, but Powell clearly stressed in July that the FOMC prioritizes price stability over full employment. He emphasized that price stability is a pre-condition for sustainable employment growth. Consequently, as long as inflation remains well above target, the Fed will keep the federal funds rate above neutral, even if the unemployment rate starts to rise. In fact, this is also made explicit in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections.

On the other side of the Atlantic, European natural gas prices were pushed up by concerns about possible Russian “pipeline maintenance”. This also raised US natural gas prices in anticipation of increased demand from Europe.

On the data front, Monday was relatively quiet. In the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rebounded to 0.27 in July from -0.25 in June (upward revision from -0.19). This index is based on 85 indicators of national economic activity and a zero value indicates trend growth. So the CFNAI moved from below trend growth in June to above trend growth in July, which suggests that the US economy has rebounded from the weak first half year that has been characterized as a technical recession. Although encouraging, the almost 30 bps inversion of the 2-10 segment of the US treasury yield curve suggests that an NBER-approved recession is only a matter of time. After all, this is well above the 16 bps threshold that we discussed in Inversions and recessions.

Day ahead

Today, S&P Global will publish a range of manufacturing and services PMIs for August. They kicked off with the French PMIs. The manufacturing PMI feel to 49.0 in August from 49.5 in July and the services PMI declined to 51.0 from 53.2. In other words, the French manufacturing sector continues to contract, while the services sector is still growing, albeit at a slower pace. However, combined this was sufficient to push the composite PMI into contractionary territory, to 49.8 from 51.7. Hence S&P Global’s press release is titled “French economy contracts in August for the first time in a year-and-a-half.” At the time of writing, we were also looking forward to the German PMIs, the Eurozone PMIs, and the UK PMIs.

This morning we get S&P Global’s manufacturing and services PMIs for the US. The Bloomberg consensus expectation is a rebound in the services PMI to 49.8 in August from 47.3 in July, which would take the index from contractionary territory close to the neutral level. In contrast, the manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 51.8 from 52.2, thus still seen to remain in expansionary territory.

US new home sales are expected to show a further decline of 2.5% in July after a 8.1% drop in June. As we explained in Technical recession, the interest rate sensitive housing sector is the first to feel the impact of the Fed’s hiking cycle, after a strong increase in mortgage rates. This led to a 14% decline in residential investment in the second quarter of the year.

Finally, Eurozone economic confidence is expected to fall further to -28.0 in August from -27.0 in July. Note that these levels are even worse than during the outbreak of COVID, when the index reached its trough at -24.5 in April 2020. And this was already below the levels of the Global Financial Crisis (-22.4) and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (-21.4).

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 10:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/5p2qGCr Tyler Durden

US Services Sector Collapses In August, US Composite Weaker Than Europe

US Services Sector Collapses In August, US Composite Weaker Than Europe

After the ugliness in Euro area PMIs, August’s flash PMIs for the US were expected to be mixed with Services improving and Manufacturing slowing – they were half right! US Services PMI collapsed in early August from 47.3 to 44.1 (well below the expected jump to 49.8). US Manufacturing also slowed more than expected, from 52.2 to 51.3 (below the 51.8 expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

Services are at their lowest since May 2020 and Manufacturing at its lowest since July 2020.

At 51.3 in August, down from 52.2 in July, the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI continued to signal subdued operating conditions across the manufacturing sector. The headline reading fell to its lowest level in just
over two years, amid muted demand conditions and production cutbacks.

The US Composite PMI is the weakest of all the global regions…

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

August flash PMI data signalled further disconcerting signs for the health of the US private sector. Demand conditions were dampened again, sparked by the impact of interest rate hikes and strong inflationary pressures on customer spending, which weighed on activity. Gathering clouds spread across the private sector as services new orders returned to contractionary territory, mirroring the subdued demand conditions seen at their manufacturing counterparts. Excluding the period between March and May 2020, the fall in total output was the steepest seen since the series began nearly 13 years ago.

Lower new order inflows and continued efforts to rein in spending led to the slowest uptick in employment for almost a year. Reports of challenges finding suitable candidates started to be countered by those companies noting that voluntary leavers would not be replaced with any immediacy due to uncertainty regarding demand over the coming months.

“One area of reprieve for firms came in the form of a further softening in inflationary pressures. Input prices and output charges rose at the slowest rates for a yearand-a-half amid reports that some key component costs had fallen. Although pointing to an ongoing movement away from price peaks, increases in costs and charges remained historically robust. At the same time, delivery times lengthened at the slowest pace since October 2020, albeit still sharply, allowing more firms to work through backlogs.”

Finally, we note that the recent rampage higher in stocks – as cyclicals dominated defensives – appears to have been over done yet again…

Source: Bloomberg

Can Powell say anything to stop/slow the reversion of cyclicals to reality?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 09:54

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Litigation By Leak: Government Officials Drop New Details On Mar-a-Lago Raid While Continuing To Oppose Disclosures In Court

Litigation By Leak: Government Officials Drop New Details On Mar-a-Lago Raid While Continuing To Oppose Disclosures In Court

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

One of the most glaring contradictions in the Mar-a-Lago controversy has been the Justice Department demanding absolute and unwavering secrecy over the FBI raid while officials have been leaking details on the raid.

The latest example is a report in the New York Times that the Justice Department recovered more than 300 documents with classified markings, citing multiple sources connected to the investigation.

Most judges would be a tad annoyed by the contradiction as the government continues to frame the public debate with its own selective leaks while using secrecy to bar other disclosures. That includes sections of the affidavit that detail the communications with the Trump team, information that is already known to the target.

Someone is clearly lying. The Trump Team said that it was cooperating and would have given access to the government if it raised further objections. The Justice Department has clearly indicated that time was of the essence to justify this unprecedented raid on the home of a former president. Yet, Attorney General Merrick Garland reportedly waited for weeks to sign off on the application for a warrant and the FBI then waited a weekend to execute that warrant. It is difficult to understand why such communications could not be released in a redacted affidavit while protecting more sensitive sections.

The latest leak to to the New York Times offers details on what was gathered from Mar-a-Lago. Officials state that they collected more than 150 documents marked as classified in January with another 150 being gathered in June and then in the August raid.

Washington has long floated on a sea of leaks but this is notable in that the government is opposing even modest disclosures from the court while it has steadily leaked details to its own advantage. It undermines the credibility of the government and raises questions of the motivations behind the absolute secrecy claims.

The level of detail is extraordinary including the very account of past dealings that some of us have argued could be released in the affidavit. The leaks describe the June meeting in Mar-a-Lago and reveals that Jay Bratt, the chief of the counterespionage section of the national security division of the Justice Department, met with two of Mr. Trump’s lawyers, Evan Corcoran and Christina Bobb. He then went through the boxes himself to identify classified material.

This information is likely contained in the affidavit, which the Justice Department claimed could not be released without harming its investigation and endangering national security.

The New York Times story then affirms the position of the Justice Department as proven by the leaks.

“[T}he extent to which such a large number of highly sensitive documents remained at Mar-a-Lago for months, even as the department sought the return of all material that should have been left in government custody when Mr. Trump left office, suggested to officials that the former president or his aides had been cavalier in handling it, not fully forthcoming with investigators, or both.”

It is litigation by leak where the government prevents others (including the target) from seeing key representations made to the court while releasing selective facts to its own advantage. It shows utter contempt for the court and the public. The question is whether the court will take note of this series of leaks. Most judges do not like to be played so openly and publicly by government officials. Moreover, the leaks should push Garland to reverse course as suggested in a recent column and order substantive disclosures in the affidavit in light of the government’s prior leaks.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 09:44

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US Alerts All Americans Still In Ukraine To ‘Leave Immediately’ Ahead Of Expanded Russian Strikes

US Alerts All Americans Still In Ukraine To ‘Leave Immediately’ Ahead Of Expanded Russian Strikes

The US State department has issued an emergency alert through the US embassy in Kyiv on Tuesday warning that any remaining Americans must leave Ukraine immediately. The alert says that Russia plans to step up attacks on civilian infrastructure across the war-ravaged country.

“The Department of State has information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days,” the notification reads. “Russian strikes in Ukraine pose a continued threat to civilians and civilian infrastructure. The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so.”

Downtown Kyiv, ahead of the ‘Independence Day’ – the streets have been lined with captured and destroyed Russian military equipment. EPA/EFE

This is concurrent with Ukraine’s Independence Day celebrations on Wednesday – except of course there won’t be much in the way of celebrations given the ongoing Russian invasion. A number of metropolitan areas are imposing strict curfews amid the danger and fears of expanded Russian strikes, and the need to avoid crowds in public places.

Events to commemorate Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union 31 years ago have been banned in the capital, as well as the country’s second largest city of Kharkiv, with President Zelensky and regional officials telling the public to stay home as expanded missile strikes are likely.

According to some of the city-wide alerts detailed in Forbes, “Authorities in the capital, Kyiv, have stepped up security, banned mass events and canceled major festivities like the parade down the main street—the street has instead been lined with captured and destroyed Russian military equipment—and other cities, such as Kharkiv, have extended overnight curfews.”

Kyiv announced that for people in the city “it is forbidden to hold mass events, peaceful meetings, rallies and other events related to a large gathering of people.”

Over the weekend, just hours after the assassination of Alexander Dugin’s daughter Darya Dugina outside of Moscow on Saturday, Ukraine’s Zelensky warned that “particularly ugly” attacks are likely coming.

“We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious,” Zelensky said in his nightly public address.

AFP/Getty Images

“One of the key tasks of the enemy is to humiliate us, Ukrainians, to devalue our capabilities, our heroes, to spread despair, fear, to spread conflicts … Therefore, it is important never, for a single moment, to give in to this enemy pressure, not to wind oneself up, not to show weakness,” he said of expected increased Russian attacks on independence day.

Starting months ago Russian strikes began focusing on rail, transport, and power infrastructure in some key locales – which the Kremlin described as degrading Ukraine’s ability to transport Western supplied weaponry. Fears of even greater escalation also loom given recent attacks deep inside Crimea, which hadn’t happened during the opening months of the war.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/23/2022 – 09:30

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Elementary School Calls Cops on 4-Year-Old For Violating Mask Mandate


School kids wearing face masks

Last week, a Bay Area principal called the cops on a 4-year-old student who tried to attend Theuerkauf Elementary School without a mask on, in violation of Mountain View Whisman School District’s policy.

“I’m going to have to have him removed from campus if you don’t leave at this time,” the principal, Michelle Williams, can be seen telling the student’s father, Shawn, who has asked media organizations to withhold his last name for privacy. The school then called an officer to intervene. In another clip, the school resource officer seems sympathetic to both parties but must do the school district’s bidding. Though there is no statewide mandate in place, and many area school districts have different policies, this district had decided that all students must mask in order to attend for the fall.

Shawn had anticipated that his family’s decision not to mask would be a problem and contacted school officials in advance of the fall term starting.

“I was looking for accessibility options,” Shawn told Fox & Friends First. “The only thing I got back from the principal was a cut-and-paste response.” Other school district officials told him that schooling is compulsory in the state starting at age 6; since Shawn’s son is 4, he doesn’t need to attend.

“This parent worked with an advocacy group outside Mountain View to create a professional video in order to nationally shame a public servant doing her job while maintaining a safe and orderly school,” Superintendent Ayindé Rudolph said in a statement sent to parents, not acknowledging that masking 4-year-olds may do more harm than good.

After this incident went viral last week, the school district on Thursday revoked their policy, admitting no wrongdoing and instead cloaking their call in language about how local COVID transmission rates have for now declined enough to put an end to the mandate. Shawn’s son was allowed to attend school.

This mandate reversal has echoes of a similar situation that just transpired in Los Angeles County. In mid-July, L.A. County’s Barbara Ferrer, the director of the Department of Public Health, announced that universal indoor masking might need to be mandated if COVID transmission rates rise to a “high” level, determined by the authorities as 10 new weekly hospital admissions per 10,000 residents. L.A. County entered this “high” transmission level on July 14, but the Beverley Hills City Council immediately voted not to enforce any mandates if imposed from on high, and Ferrer quickly cooled her jets.

The unpopular mandate had been slated to go into effect on July 29. “It’s reasonable to assume that the recent decline we have seen in cases will lead to continued decreases in hospital admissions over the next couple of weeks,” Ferrer said July 28, suddenly optimistic, having recently dropped plans for the mandate. (L.A. County technically remained at a “high” transmission level until August 11.)

In both Mountain View and Los Angeles, the mask enforcers won’t simply admit that there’s little public will to follow these mandates, that they look weak and ineffective if people refuse to obey.

When dropping plans to institute mandates, Ferrer, Rudolph, and other decision makers rarely admit that they were wrong to impose coercive mandates on a largely vaccinated and low-risk general public. They instead claim it’s the case counts that have gone down. Since the situation has changed, they say, the mandate is no longer necessary, leaving themselves a little bit of room to reimpose masking at a later date if they deem it appropriate.

Given what we know about how COVID works more than 30 months into this pandemic, armed with vaccines, Paxlovid, and an understanding that this virus does not do much harm to our very youngest, many parents might say kid-masking is never appropriate, contra California’s insistent health enforcement apparatus.

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