Morgan Stanley: Cash Looks “Relatively Attractive” Right Now

Morgan Stanley: Cash Looks “Relatively Attractive” Right Now

By Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley

Sunday Start: What If Holding Cash Is Just Efficient Asset Allocation?

Since mid-2009, a question that seems easy in hindsight and but felt difficult at the time was what to do with cash. On the one hand, it didn’t yield anything, and allocating to anything else usually did better. But the last 12 years have also been a period of profound pessimism – on the outlook for banking, Europe and long-term growth. The intensity of the GFC and the events that followed meant that in the darkest moments more than a few CFOs and investors likely mumbled a silent prayer: If we make it through this, we will never be caught without liquidity again.

Holding cash, in other words, was an explicitly defensive decision for much of the last 12 years. Of course it offered a worse return than anything else in the market. That was the point. Holding cash was the price of security, an insurance policy against that prevailing gloom. And like insurance, it could be expensive. USD cash underperformed both the S&P 500 and the US 10-year every year from 2010 to 2020 except two (2013 and 2018).

But the idea that holding cash means paying for insurance is no longer accurate. US 6-month T-bill yields (3.1%) are the highest since late 2007 and offer 157bp more than the dividends of the S&P 500, 21bp more than US 10-year Treasuries and just 60bp less than the US Aggregate Bond index. For USD investors, cash has ceased to be a material drag on a portfolio’s current yield.

The numbers may be less extreme in Europe, but still represent a change of regime. German 6-month bill yields, at +0.3%, are positive for the first time since 2014. For the last eight years, holding ‘cash’ in Europe cost a significant amount of money. Not anymore.

All of this has a number of implications.

  • First, we think that holding USD cash looks relatively attractive on a cross-asset basis. It offers a high current yield. It offers liquidity. If offers a better 12-month total return than our strategy forecasts imply for US equities, US Treasuries and either US IG or HY credit (with considerably less volatility). As a result, our Core+ optimized fixed income portfolios (see Cross-Asset Dispatches: AGG+ and CORE+ Optimal Fixed Income Portfolios: July 2022, July 29, 2022) are generally OW short-dated fixed income. USD cash also performs well versus other currencies; our FX strategists project further USD strength, especially against EUR, aided in part by the dollar’s attractive yield. One exception is EM sovereign debt, which should outperform cash, and which we’ve recently raised to OW (see Cross-Asset Dispatches: Bears Watching, August 5, 2022, and EM Sovereign Credit Strategy: Dialing Risk Up Another Notch, August 10, 2022).
  • Second, high yields on short-term safe assets create a risk of outflows that needs to be monitored, as it reduces the cost for investors to step out of the market. For the moment, we are more relaxed about outflows (see Cross-Asset Dispatches: More Relaxed about Outflows, July 29, 2022), given strong consumer finances, better recent cross-asset performance and the simple fact that terrible 1H performance didn’t trigger a rush for the proverbial exits.
  • Third, and another factor that may be limiting outflows, is that not all ‘cash’ is created equal. While US 6-month T-bills yield ~3.1%, the yields on 6-month US bank CDs are just 0.9% (and the Bankrate.com average for a US bank savings account is just 0.13%). For gathering assets and adding yield, it seems like an unusually good time to add value with money market strategies. This also raises some interesting questions around bank net interest margins, and it seems appropriate to note that the price/book ratio of EU banks was 57% higher the last time German bill yields were positive.

For much of the last 12 years, cash yielded nothing, and allocating to it represented a deliberate choice to pay an often high price for insurance. But times change. Cash yields have risen sharply at a time when Morgan Stanley’s forecasts for global cross-asset returns are low, squeezed by tighter policy if economic data continue to hold up, and higher risk premiums if the data turn down. The market is giving investors the opportunity to earn ~3% on safe, liquid T-bills, or ~5% on safe (but less liquid) short-duration CLO AAAs, and somewhere in-between for other AAA securitized paper that has cheapened as banks have faced RWA constraints. These aren’t the most exciting investments, but sometimes it makes sense to take what the market gives you.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 16:30

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Lithium Prices Putting EV Producers Under Pressure

Lithium Prices Putting EV Producers Under Pressure

With demand for electric vehicles on the rise, and production bans for petrol and diesel cars in some key markets on the horizon, one of the key metals required to fuel this mobility boom, has been surging in price lately.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the chart below, based on price-tracking from Trading Economics, Lithium carbonate, essential for the production of the batteries used in EVs, has experienced a meteoric rise in cost over the last few months – being traded consistently above the 450,000 Chinese yuan/tonne mark since February.

Infographic: Lithium Prices Putting EV Producers Under Pressure | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

With the current global supply chain issues and demand forecast to rise aggressively over the next few years, producers of electric vehicles are now under increasing pressure to maintain their pricing models, while also facing down significant hurdles to meet their production goals.

Worse still, analysts are predicting new lithium price highs around the corner, not the relief that the motor industry so desperately needs.

Even more troubling, as Autumn Spredemann writes at The Epoch Times, while increased domestic lithium production plays a crucial role in President Joe Biden’s green energy plan, lithium mining has quietly revealed itself to be a significant contributor to environmental pollution in the frantic rush to abandon fossil fuels.

Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said Biden’s historic investment in electric battery production and recycling would give the United States “the jolt it needs to become more secure and less reliant on other nations,” in a May 2 press release.

Though some environmental experts believe that when it comes to lithium extraction, the end doesn’t justify the means.

“Our position is: mining is very destructive to the environment and communities. It needs to be approached judiciously,” John Hadder, director of Great Basin Resource Watch, told The Epoch Times.

In November 2021, United Nations  Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked, “We’re digging our own graves” with mining, drilling, and burning during a world leader’s summit on climate change.

At the other end of the lithium debate are the spent electric batteries. Improperly disposed lithium batteries can be very unstable, causing landfill fires that can go on for years. The resultant toxic chemicals released into the air can also impact air quality and carbon emissions.

Vegreville explained batteries can be recycled, but lithium-ion units are especially dangerous due to fire hazards.

“One of the most ecologically friendly ways to dispose of a lithium-ion battery is to dismantle it,” he said.

Though the demand for lithium batteries is set to become a $116 billion industry by the year 2030, leaving some experts concerned that production may outstrip the industry’s ability to properly handle waste on the back end.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency admits special recycling and hazardous waste facilities are needed to deal with the influx of electric batteries. One standard electric car battery on average weighs over 1,000 pounds.

In other words, the recycling end will need to be a highly regulated, multi-million dollar industry in its own right to reduce pollution and fire hazards.

Moreover, Hadder says the current political demand for lithium could end with a push for more toxic, unsustainable projects in the long run. And while he supports a transition to renewable energy overall, the current gold rush mentality for lithium is anything but green.

“What we’re seeing now is a repeat of patterns and practices of the past,” Hadder said.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 16:00

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Inflation Is Quietly Stripping Us Of Our Private Property Rights

Inflation Is Quietly Stripping Us Of Our Private Property Rights

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

I used to scoff at the mention of ‘The Great Reset”, or the idea that a handful of elites are running the global show behind the scenes. Needless to say, on the other side of the pandemic, I have warmed up to the idea in a big way. I can’t help but feel as though some often talked about conspiracy theories are in the process of unfolding right before our very eyes, whether via premeditated means or just from plain old dumbass incompetence from global politicians and Central Banks.

As anybody who is harshly critical of the idea of a “Great Reset” will tell you, one of the key tenets of a post-apocalyptic, Klaus Schwab-run world is the idea that we will no longer have private property rights. This comes from a statement that Schwab made, predicting what life would be like in the year 2030:

“You’ll own nothing” — And “you’ll be happy about it.”


And while today’s lesson is rather elementary, it’s worth noting that this conspiracy theory not only isn’t too far from the truth, it could very well be in the midst of taking place right before our eyes.

I had to look no further than my own personal circle to find recent examples of grown adults who were having difficulty making ends meet due to rising prices. These people had some money saved up, but still could not keep up with the price of rent and housing, and ultimately wound up giving up on having their own place and moving back home with their parents.

When I was discussing this example on my most recent podcast, I had the revelation that, as is true with anything economic, this same situation was playing out millions of times over, with millions of other Americans, every day. In other words everyone is having the same problem: they simply can’t afford things anymore and, with inflation at between 8% and 9%, the value of their savings is collapsing.

In just 3 years, things cost between 15% and 20% more than they did when many savers were putting away a majority of their money – before the pandemic. The purchasing power of the dollar is down by about 20% over the same time.

USD Purchasing Power (5 Years) via TradingEconomics.com

Those who are still working on a wage that isn’t 20% higher than it was just 3 years ago are losing significant ground. Those who have stopped working and are either on a fixed income or are living off savings have been hit even worse (especially if you’re living off a pension managed by some of the absolute worst managers to ever step foot in front of a Bloomberg terminal, like this one and this one).

This financial pressure is widely talked about when it comes to people paring back their discretionary spending. We hear the news talk about a slowdown in spending all the time when economic times get tougher – it’s one of the dynamics that creates recession and de-leveraging cycles. But what happens when it’s the cost of shelter (i.e. rent and housing) and real estate that are also getting too expensive for everyday buyers. This is talked about far less, so let’s quickly think about what it could mean for the future.


Today’s article is free because I believe the content to be too important to put behind a paywall. If you enjoy this piece, have the means and want to support my work, I’d be humbled to have you as a subscriber: Yes, I want 70% off a subsription. 


In Klaus Schwab’s future, borrowing the words of Judge Smails, “you’ll get nothing and like it!”

We are all Spaulding

It’ll be this way because everything will be communal and shared. The focus will be taken away from private property and private property rights.

Inflation helps this narrative greatly. If you have less purchasing power to buy discretionary items then, by proxy, you have less private property.

The scary thing is when this dynamic starts to extrapolate itself over people’s real estate and land ownership. In other words, a future where nobody can afford a second set of golf clubs doesn’t seem that post-apocalyptic, but a future where fewer and fewer people own land and house, and where the geographical distribution of the world’s livable area starts to fall into the hands of the richest few and state backed entities – well, this seems extremely post-apocalyptic.

While I admit this is a bit “fringe” at the moment (hey, it’s what I do), I now can’t help but think of inflation as a way to help strip away people’s individual private property rights. When you take away a person’s private property, private property rights don’t hold the same meaning to them. Do people that don’t want to own guns care about the right to own guns? Probably not as much as those who are avid sportsman or want to own guns for personal protection.

If you haven’t yet, I would encourage you to listen to my most recent podcast with Andy Schectman, where he lays out the de-dollarization path we could be on and how the global economic landscape is shifting before our eyes. In his estimation, everything that needs to be happening for ‘The Great Reset” to take place on or ahead of schedule is already happening.

And as I said to him, while I may have laughed at the idea a couple of years ago, I found myself with my jaw agape by the end of the interview – because as much as I didn’t want him to, his post-apocalyptic scenario was making a whole lot of sense.

I know this is somewhat of a basic lesson in economics, but the next time you hear the Biden administration refer to inflation at 0% sequentially, despite the fact that it was up more than 8% from the year prior, take it personally. Remember that every positive CPI print we see represents the percentage of things you can buy less of with the same money you had a year prior.

If you could afford 8% more “stuff” last year with the same dollar, what type of mental gymnastics do you need to perform to convince yourself that your rights to private property aren’t being whittled away and taken out from underneath you?

Our freedom versus Schwabism | Meer

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 15:30

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Baltimore On Pace For Possible Record Murders As Local NAACP Asks Governor To Deploy National Guard

Baltimore On Pace For Possible Record Murders As Local NAACP Asks Governor To Deploy National Guard

Baltimore City reached 231 homicides since the start of the year and is on pace for a possible record year of murder.

Just an hour north of the White House, the Democratic-controlled metro area is in ruins with no signs of waning violence as President Biden’s ‘unity in America’ has died. 

Newly elected Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott has blamed everyone from the media to gun companies for the worsening violence

The 38-year-old politician announced a year ago that his five-year plan would reduce violence, though the plan could be a massive failure this year as the current rate of homicides is above a five-year trend, implying 300 homicide level could be reached as early November with the possibility of a record number of murders (if the pace continues) at the end of the year. 

If the dreaded 300th homicide level is breached later this year, it will be the eighth consecutive year. 

Democrats have controlled Baltimore for more than half a century. The failure of Baltimore as a city should be directed at those with progressive policies and ideas about policing and operating a city. 

But there is a glimmer of hope for the city: Baltimore state’s attorney Marilyn Mosby, who aligned herself with radical criminal justice reformers, just lost in the Democratic primary. She acknowledged a federal investigation into her finances cost her the election.

Mosby was the youngest chief prosecutor of any major US city and was sworn into office in 2015. Ever since she retained her position, homicides and violent crime surged. 

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan recently commented on the crime epidemic and directed blame on city leadership:  

“I’ve been focused on getting the leadership in Baltimore to take it more seriously. I hope they develop a real crime plan and start arresting more, prosecuting more and putting them in jail,” Hogan said.

Hogan’s directed blame on leadership makes perfect sense since Mosby’s controversial “no prosecution policy” for drug possession and prostitution has backfired by making the city even more dangerous as criminals run free as those in San Francisco. 

Scott might need to tweak his crime reduction plan or face the wrath of Hogan or even voters. This comes as a civil rights organization (Randallstown’s chapter of the NAACP) in a suburb in Baltimore County requested the governor to declare a “public emergency” and deploy the National Guard to the city to quell out-of-control violent crime. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 15:00

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Judge Permanently Blocks Biden Oil And Gas Leasing Pause In 13 States

Judge Permanently Blocks Biden Oil And Gas Leasing Pause In 13 States

Authored by Allen Zhong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge Thursday issued a permanent injunction against the Biden administration’s pause of new oil and gas leasing in federal lands.

President Joe Biden speaks from the Blue Room Balcony of the White House in Washington on Aug. 1, 2022. (Jim Watson/Pool via AP)

The injunction applies to the 13 states that sued the Biden administration over the moratorium in March 2021, including Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia.

Terry Doughty, the U.S. district judge for the Western District of Louisiana, ruled that the White House overreached in the ban.

President Joe Biden signed Executive Order 14008 on Jan. 27, 2021, banning all new oil and natural gas leases on federal lands and offshore waters. The order didn’t cancel existing leases on federal lands and offshore waters. Leases on private lands were also not affected.

Thirteen states led by Louisiana sued the Biden administration, saying the lease ban violated the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA), which governs offshore oil and gas leases, and the Mineral Leasing Act (MLA), which governs onshore land leases on federal lands.

Doughty issued a temporary injunction back in June 2022 in this case. The injunction was overthrown by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday.

Doughty’s permanent injunction came a day after the circuit court’s ruling (pdf).

In the permanent injunction, Doughty ruled that the executive branch has no authority to change both laws.

Both statutes require Government Defendants’ agencies to sell oil and gas leases. The OCSLA has a Five-Year Plan in effect that requires eligible leases to be sold. Government Defendants’ agencies have no authority to make significant revisions in the OCSLA Five-Year Plan without going through the procedure mandated by Congress. The MLA requires the DOI to hold lease sales, where eligible lands are available at least quarterly,” he wrote in the ruling (pdf). “By stopping the process, the agencies are in effect amending two Congressional statutes. Neither the OCSLA nor the MLA gives the Government Defendants’ agencies the authority to implement a Stop of lease sales.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the Interior Department and the White House for comments.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (C) and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen announce a lawsuit against President Joe Biden’s administration, in Edinburgh, Texas, on Jan. 28, 2022. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen applauded the permanent injunction.

“President Biden’s executive order to choke off energy development didn’t just increase prices and hurt American families—it was flatly illegal. This decision is a victory for the rule of law and the workers and the rural communities who depend on the energy industry,” he said in a statement.

An ongoing lease moratorium would have lowered employment by 210 jobs, reduced personal income by $13 million, and cost $4 million in oil and gas taxes in Montana in 2021, he said citing a December 2020 study conducted by the University of Wyoming.

Biggest Offshore Oil, Gas Lease Sale Revived

Days before the permanent injunction, a lease known as Lease Sale 257, which is also under dispute in the multiple-state lawsuit, was revived by Biden through the so-called Inflation Reduction Act.

The Inflation Reduction Act includes provisions that direct spending, tax credits, and loans to bolster technologies such as solar panels and equipment to cut pollution at coal- and gas-powered power plants.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 14:30

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Military Families Suffering As Housing Benefits Can’t Keep Up With Exploding Rent

Military Families Suffering As Housing Benefits Can’t Keep Up With Exploding Rent

Military families who have long-benefited from housing subsidies are finding themselves unable to afford rent amid record-breaking spikes in rent, as the Department of Defense neglects its commitment to help its service members find affordable places to live.

“It’s affecting us personally but then I think about how we were a junior enlisted family at one point. I cannot imagine the struggles (they) are going through,” said Kristen Marten, whose husband was transferred to Naval Base San Diego.

On-base housing wasn’t an optionthe waitlist for a four-bedroom home in the neighborhoods they qualified for was 14 to 16 months.

Neither were the military-only hotels near base where new arrivals can pay low rates as they get their bearings — those were full, too.

So Martin cast a wide net across San Diego and started applying for rental homes, all sight unseen.

“I was waking up and the first thing I was doing was looking at properties,” Martin said. “I was looking at it midday, before I went to bed. I had alerts set. It became a full-time job.” –AP

After sending out more than 30 rental applications – which cost hundreds of dollars in application fees, the Martins finally found a home – for $4,200 per month, nearly $700 more than the monthly basic allowance for housing (BAH) that her husband, a lieutenant, receives.

“We’ll probably be here two or three years, so that could be $20,000 that we’re paying out of pocket above BAH just for rent,” she said, after the family’s fourth move in 15 years.

The situation has forced many military families to settle for substandard homes, long commutes, and paying thousands out of pocket they didn’t plan on spending.

“I don’t think civilians really understand — they might think we’re living in free housing and just having a great time, making lots of money. And that’s not the case at all.,” said Kate Needham, a veteran who co-founded the nonprofit Armed Forces Housing Advocates in May 2021. “We have families coming to us that are on exorbitantly lengthy waiting lists and sitting in homes that they can’t afford, like an Airbnb rental, or they’re at a hotel or camping in tents or living in RVs.”

Needham’s group provides military families with microgrants to help them get by – some of whom have resorted to food banks because they can’t make ends meet.

Several members of Congress have raised the alarm – pushing legislation that would force the DoD to reconsider its BAH budget. 

The primary issue, of course, is that the housing allowances are recalculated annually, and haven’t kept pace with rental markets despite the fact that BAHs are intended to cover 95% of rental costs for the roughly 2/3 of active-duty personnel who have to live off base.

According to a data analysis by The Associated Press of five of the most populous military bases in the U.S., housing allowances across all ranks have risen an average of 18.7% since January 2018. In that span, according to real estate company Zillow, rents have skyrocketed 43.9% in those markets: Carlsbad, California; Colorado Springs, Colorado; El Paso, Texas; Killeen, Texas, and Tacoma, Washington.

And because of how tough off-base markets are, on-base housing has become a hot commodity, with many bases having long waitlists.

Needham argues that the discrepancy between military housing allowances and the current market should alarm officials who are already struggling to recruit the next generation. -AP

“If you can’t afford your job, why the hell would you stay in the job?” said Needham. “People are feeling abused by the military in so many different areas — the sexual assault issues, the lack of attention to medical care, the lack of attention to mental health. This is just another tick in the box that’s like, ‘Why would I join the military?’ And if you don’t have enough numbers, that’s a long-term national security problem.

In Tampa, Florida, housing allowances for those working at MacDill Air Force Base used to be in line with the local market – however a surge in rents which began during the pandemic has led to a crunch. In January 2020, a senior airman who had no dependents was receiving $1,560 per month for housing, vs. the average Tampa rental price of $1,457. Now, rents are $2,118 per month (as of July), while the airman’s allowance is $1,647.

“We are woefully underhoused,” said Tampa property manager and wife of a retired serviceman, Stephanie Poynor. “The DoD needs to recognize how much our soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines and Coasties are really suffering in this market.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 14:00

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The Return Of Peter Strzok: How A Fired FBI Official Is Making The Case Against Himself

The Return Of Peter Strzok: How A Fired FBI Official Is Making The Case Against Himself

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Peter Strzok is back in the news this week.

Career colleagues at the Justice Department previously referred Strzok for possible criminal charges and he was fired for his bias and unprofessional conduct. However, Strzok was immediately embraced by many in the media and establishment for his anti-Trump sentiments. After he was fired, the former special agent was given a lucrative book deal, lionized on the left, featured prominently as an expert by CNN, and given a teaching job at Georgetown.

It was an extraordinary recovery from a scandal where he showed flagrant bias, engaged in an affair with another married colleague at the FBI, and fought to continue to investigate Russian collusion claims despite early warnings over the questionable basis of the allegations pushed by the Clinton campaign. (Strzok’s colleague and former paramour, Lisa Page, was given a contract as a legal analyst with NBC and MSNBC).

Now, Strzok appears liberated in showing precisely the bias and unhinged hostility alleged by his critics. He has been in the news lashing out at Trump and trolling his objections to the raid on Mar-a-Lago.

The seizure of Trump’s passports has raised more doubts about the seemingly unlimited scope of the search. One of the passports taken in the raid was Trump’s active diplomatic passport, according to an email from the Justice Department made public by Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich. The  other two passports alleged were expired.

Last week, Strzok was one of the first to jump on the bandwagon with CBS News anchor Norah O’Donnell, who blasted out a tweet claiming DOJ sources refuting Trump’s claim that the FBI took his passports. The “CBS Evening News” anchor reported that the Department of Justice did not have Trump’s passports, tweeting, “According to a DOJ official, the FBI is NOT in possession of former President Trump’s passports.”

In fact, the FBI did take the passports and had to later return them. The clear import of O’Donnell’s tweet was that Trump was lying.

That was clearly the message received by various critics, including Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who is purportedly serving as an unbiased member of the January 6th committee. Kinzinger, R-Ill., wrote, “Lies lies lies and more lies.”

Notably, Strzok was also among those eager to spread the O’Donnell report, tweeting, “And unsurprisingly, Trump’s statement turns out not to be true.” He later deleted it.

Strzok has sounded at times like a virtual troll on social media. Recently, he again lashed out at the story that the FBI took Trump’s passport and mocked Trump’s call to lower the temperature in the country after the raid. Strzok tweeted “Please oh please keep asking how you can turn down the temperature in the country,. And why does he have two passports? The Russian passport, of course, is kept in a vault at Yasenevo and only swapped out at third country meets, so it can’t be that one.”

Strzok’s bias and violation of FBI rules led to career Justice Department investigators referring his case to prosecutors and ultimately led to his firing from the FBI. His emails showed intense bias against Donald Trump and highly concerning statements about having an “insurance policy” in place if Trump were to win the election.

On January 4, 2017, the FBI’s Washington Field Office issued a “Closing Communication” indicating that the bureau was terminating “CROSSFIRE RAZOR” — the newly disclosed codename for the investigation of Michael Flynn.  Strzok intervened.

Keep in mind CROSSFIRE RAZOR was formed to determine whether Michael Flynn “was directed and controlled by” or “coordinated activities with the Russian Federation in a manner which is a threat to the national security” of the United States or a violation of federal foreign agent laws.  The FBI investigated Flynn and various databases and determined that “no derogatory information was identified in FBI holdings.” Due to this conclusion, the Washington Field Office concluded that Flynn “was no longer a viable candidate as part of the larger CROSSFIRE HURRICANE umbrella case.”

On that same day, however, Strzok instructed the FBI case manager handling CROSSFIRE RAZOR to keep the investigation open, telling him “Hey don’t close RAZOR.”  The FBI official replied, “Okay.” Strzok then confirmed again, “Still open right? And you’re the case agent? Going to send you [REDACTED] for the file.” The FBI official confirmed: “I have not closed it … Still open.” Strzok responded “Rgr. I couldn’t raise [REDACTED] earlier. Pls keep it open for now.”

Strzok also wrote FBI lawyer Lisa Page, the same person Strzok had referenced his “insurance policy” to in emails. Strzok texted Page: “Razor still open. :@ but serendipitously good, I guess. You want those chips and Oreos?” Page replied “Phew. But yeah that’s amazing that he is still open. Good, I guess.” Strzok replied “Yeah, our utter incompetence actually helps us. 20% of the time, I’m guessing :)”

That exchange is not as disconcerting as Strzok’s actions.  After a finding of “no derogatory information,” Strzok reached for the Logan Act and sent a research paper on the notoriously unconstitutional law.

As with those like Laurence Tribe claiming a “slam dunk” case for conviction before any real evidence, let alone a charge, there is a familiar pattern to this coverage. Many of us have said that there could be criminal conduct revealed by this raid, but we simply do not know. There is much that we do not know to establish such a case, let alone speculate on its outcome. That is why some of us have called for greater transparency from the Justice Department, including the release of substantive portions of a redacted affidavit.

For his part, Strzok appears eager to confirm the allegations made against him. Yet, these public statements only fuel the concern of many that the raid was another “insurance policy” by the FBI. For his former colleagues at the FBI, Strzok’s trolling can hardly be a welcomed addition to the public controversy over their investigation.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 13:30

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Residents Demand Resignation Of NJ Councilwoman Who Hit Bicyclist In SUV & Fled Scene

Residents Demand Resignation Of NJ Councilwoman Who Hit Bicyclist In SUV & Fled Scene

As if we didn’t see enough “laws for thee, but not for me” from Democratic politicians during Covid…

Now one Democratic Jersey City councilwoman has taken the adage to the next level. Amy DeGise is facing calls to resign after video allegedly shows her hitting a bicyclist with her car and then leaving the scene of the accident. 

She had a green light during the incident and the bicyclist did not, but she still left the scene. The bicyclist survived the incident, but suffered injuries. 

DeGise was reportedly cited for failure to report an accident and leaving the scene of an accident. 

More than 100 people showed up to the city’s council meeting this past week, protesting that DeGise should step down from her position. DeGise refused to do so, however. 

“I’m not resigning. For those who call for my resignation, you are heard and I understand that you have concerns and questions that I respect and would enjoy any type of dialogue or discussion with you after I go to court,” she said, according to Fox News and the Washington Examiner

She continued: “I’m appreciative of everyone who came out and had to stay tonight. I’m appreciative and so grateful for the people who have reached out to support me or just want to wait until that court process goes on to ask me any further questions [or] to pry anymore. I cannot make it through these days without you.”

The bicyclist was in the middle of making deliveries for Uber Eats. He told CBS: “Like if you hit someone that speed and just drive away, it seems like that’s not nice to me.” 

The same councilwoman was caught on body camera last November, pleading with police, after her car was illegally parked, with an expired registration, being towed and impounded. 

“I’m a councilwoman!” she is heard pleading with the officer, before telling him that she has called “John Allen” at “the mayor’s office” to try and help her resolve her issue. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 13:00

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U.S. Oil And Gas Firms Made $74 Billion In Profits Last Year

U.S. Oil And Gas Firms Made $74 Billion In Profits Last Year

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

U.S. oil and gas companies generated profits worth $73.7 billion last year on the back of improving prices, with capital expenditure reaching $144.1 billion.

This is one of the outtakes from a new report from EY titled “U.S. oil and gas reserves, production and ESG benchmarking study.”

The study detailed the latest production trends and how the 50 largest public exploration and production companies can improve their ESG standing, but it also reported on things like profits, revenues, and cash returned to shareholders.

This was also a substantial amount, at $18.1 billion in 2021, up by 122 percent from $8.1 billion a year earlier.

The report noted that despite the higher prices that pushed profits and cash returns much higher, companies have been careful with capital expenditure because of the transition push.

“Oil and gas companies have a challenging role to play: providing secure, affordable energy to consumers and customers globally while also embracing the urgent need to address climate change,” the report’s authors wrote.

This is a challenging task even at the best of times, and these are not the best of times, which has made the situation rather complicated.

“Therefore, despite the need for increased product now, the investments that historically follow sky-high commodity prices have not materialized,” the authors report. “In fact, the 2022 EY US oil and gas reserves, production and ESG benchmarking study found that expenditures for extensions and discoveries ranked at the second-lowest level in the last five years.”

This makes the EY report the latest in an increasingly long series of reports documenting a major shift in the oil and gas industry as it adjusts to a chronically uncertain environment, in which they cannot know how long there will be demand for their product.

Ironically, this uncertainty has been a big reason for the latest price surge that began last year because of that changing attitude that made oil and gas explorers and producers wary of spending too much on new supply.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/21/2022 – 12:30

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Originalism and the “Major Questions” Doctrine


Questions

The “major questions” doctrine is a rule of statutory interpretation that requires Congress to “speak clearly when authorizing an [executive branch] agency to exercise powers of “vast ‘economic and political significance.'” If such a broad delegation of power isn’t clear, the the doctrine requires courts to rule against the executive’s claims that it has the authority in question.

For a long time, the major questions doctrine was a relatively obscure rule of interest mainly to experts in statutory interpretation, and lawyers litigating cases where it might come up. Only occasionally would it affect the outcome of a prominent case. But over the last year, the Supreme Court has relied on it in three major cases: the eviction moratorium decision, the OSHA large-employer vaccine mandate case, and West Virginia v. EPA. This has made the rule a focus of controversy, with critics arguing that it is a flawed doctrine misused by the conservative justices on the Supreme Court.

At the Originalism Blog (to which both are regular contributors), prominent originalist legal scholars Mike Ramsey and Mike Rappaport recently debated the issue of whether the major questions doctrine is consistent with constitutional originalism. Ramsey believes that it is, while Rappaport is skeptical.

Here’s Ramsey:

I was initially skeptical of the major questions doctrine (MQD), as deployed by the Supreme Court in West Virginia v. EPA – basically for the reasons expressed by Chad Squitieri, Tom Merrill and Jonathan Adler.  But with everyone ganging up on the MQD, my contrarian instinct pushes me the other way.  So here is a tentative defense.

First, I assume that the Constitution’s original meaning contains some reasonably strong version of the nondelegation doctrine, that is, that Congress cannot delegate important legislative matters to the President (or administrative agencies) as a result of Article I, Section 1’s vesting of “all legislative Powers” in Congress…..

Second, I assume that the line between permissible and impermissible delegations is so difficult to define and apply that, except in extreme cases, the nondelegation rule is basically nonjusticiable, as held by the Supreme Court (per Justice Scalia) in the Whitman case…  I’m not sure that’s right, but I’m assuming it for purposes of the argument.

Third, I assume that Congress will often enact broad statutes in which the extent of the intended delegation is uncertain.  (I’m pretty confident that’s true).

Now for the argument:

The Court has a common and longstanding practice of developing clear statement rules (whether actually called by that name or not), by which the Court avoids an expansive reading of a statute unless Congress is clear in directing the expansive reading.  For example, a clear statement is needed before a statute is read to interfere with a state’s internal governance (Gregory v. Ashcroft), to apply to purely local activity (Bond v. US), to apply extraterritorially (Morrison v. National Australia Bank), or to impose criminal penalties (the rule of lenity).

Probably the earliest version in US federal law is the “Charming Betsy” rule, requiring a clear statement before a statute is read to violate international law.  (The rule takes its name from Chief Justice Marshall’s decision in Murray v. The Charming Betsy(1804)…).  Specifically Marshall wrote in Charming Betsy: “an act of Congress ought never to be construed to violate the law of nations if any other possible construction remains.”

I’m not sure that’s good enough for a strict textualist, but as an originalist matter that’s a pretty strong practice.  (Also, for what it’s worth, Justice Scalia endorsed most or all of the modern clear statement rules).

In my view, these rules aren’t really about finding the true meaning of the statutory text.  I doubt, for example, we can assume that, absent a clear statement, Congress doesn’t want to violate international law, interfere with states’ internal governance or create criminal penalties.  Rather, these are rules of judicial restraint, avoiding a broad reading of a statute where the meaning is uncertain and there are severe costs to the court erroneously reading the statute broadly…..

Thus, the fact that the MQD applies a clear statement rule instead of applying close textual analysis isn’t novel or contrary to originalism.  To be consistent with historical practice, though, this particular clear statement rule needs to protect against some substantial negative effect of overreading a statute.  For the MQD, I think that argument can be made, if one accepts the assumptions posited at the outset of this post.  Nondelegation is an important constitutional value, assuring that the people’s representatives in Congress make legislative decisions through a deliberative and accountable process.  But since the Court can’t enforce nondelegation directly and delegating statutes are often ambiguous as to their scope, there’s a substantial risk courts will err in reading statutes too broadly, allowing too much delegation to the President or the agencies.

Ramsey’s argument here is similar to that advanced by Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, who has also argued in several opinions that the major questions doctrine is best understood as a tool for enforcing nondelegation. For example, in his concurring opinion in Gundy v. United States (2019), Gorsuch notes that “[a]lthough it is nominally a canon of statutory construction, we apply the major questions doctrine in service of the
constitutional rule that Congress may not divest itself of its legislative power by transferring that power to an executive agency.”

Here’s Rappaport’s response:

Before discussing Mike [Ramsey’s] view, let me state my basic objection to the MQD: It neither enforces the Constitution nor applies ordinary methods of statutory interpretation.  Thus, it seems like a made up interpretive method for achieving a change in the law that the majority desires.

Mike’s defense is based on his view that “The Court has a common and longstanding practice of developing clear statement rules.”  Even assuming that is true, I do not think that a longstanding practice establishes that something is originalist.  For quite some time, at least until recent terms, the Supreme Court has been interpreting the Constitution and even statutes from an nonoriginalist perspective, but that does not make such nonoriginalism originalist.  That Justice O’Connor announced a federalism canon in 1991 (or the Court applied similar ones in other cases from that time period) hardly provides support for the originalist bona fides of the canon.

Mike claims that this practice goes back to at least Chief Justice Marshall in the Charming Betsy (1804) and Talbott v. Seemen (1801), which required a clear statement before a statute is read to violate international law.  But I am skeptical.  Marshall may have applied the rule but did he “develop” it as Mike claims?  At that time, the law often employed interpretive rules that sought to make different bodies of law cohere with one another.  For example, statutes were interpreted in accord with the common law.  I would be surprised if such a rule did not also apply to statutes and international law.

This is a key point.  There is a strong argument for applying existing interpretive rules to statutes enacted in the shadow of such rules.  This is original methods for statutory interpretation.  It is quite another thing to make up interpretive rules after the enactment.  That is nonoriginalism.

Another justification for the Charming Betsy rule is that it accords with the presumed intent of the Congress.  That justification won’t work for the MQD, since many of these statutes were passed during a period of broad delegation to agencies, when Congress appeared to desire broad delegations and certainly understood delegations would be read in that way.  Mike doubts that the Charming Betsy rule can be justified as the presumed intent of Congress.  But I am not so sure of that either.  While Mike may be right that the present day Congress may not care so much about modern international law, I am less certain that the early Congress would have been willing to ignore international law when the U.S. was a much weaker nation and much more beholden to international law protections….

To be frank, I wish the MQD could be justified.  It would certainly make things easier from the perspective of limiting delegations.  But “wishing does not make it so.”

Both Mikes make good points. But I largely agree with Ramsey. Indeed, I would go further. Even if nondelegation is justiciable, at least in some cases, the major questions doctrine can be justified as an additional tool for enforcing it, in situations where direct enforcement is infeasible for some reason (either because it is intrinsically impossible, or because judges just aren’t willing to do it). In this way, MQD, like other “clear statement” rules can be seen as a second-best tool for enforcing constitutional constraints on government power that, in an ideal world, would get stronger protection.

I think Rappaport fails to effectively respond to this rationale for MQD. Even if it is not the ideal rule, it may be better than the available alternatives in a world where nondelegation is inadequately enforced.

I would add that, while both Mikes implicitly assume that constitutional originalists must also apply originalist principles to statutory interpretation, I am not convinced that is necessarily true. It may be so for those I refer to as “intrinsic originalists,” who believe that originalism is inherently the only legitimate method of legal interpretation. But this is not true for what I call “instrumental originalists” – those whose support for originalism is based on the view that originalism leads to better consequences than other methodologies would. An instrumental originalist might conclude that, while constitutional originalism leads to better consequences than other constitutional theories, statutory originalism isn’t necessarily superior in the same way to all of its rivals.

Rappaport (as described in his excellent book Originalism and the Good Constitution, coauthored, with John McGinnis) is an instrumental originalist. So too am I. That means we cannot presumptively reject nonoroginalist methods of statutory interpretation. For us, it is possible that MQD can be justified even if it is not originalist. That’s especially true if it is a useful tool for enforcing constitutional rules that do have an originalist justification.

As Ramsey recognizes, his rationale for MQD (and Justice Gorsuch’s and mine!) only works if nondelegation rules impose genuine limitations on congressional power to transfer authority to the executive. If the Constitution imposes few or no constraints on delegation, then MQD cannot be justified as a tool for enforcing those (by assumption, nonexistent) restrictions.

The extent to which there are constitutional limits to congressional delegations of power to the executive is a much-disputed issue. Though I generally think there are some significant limits, I won’t try to defend that position here.

Even if MQD is a sound rule, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Court applied it correctly in any given case. I have previously argued that it did so justifiably in the eviction moratorium and vaccine mandate rulings. West Virginia v. EPA strikes me as an at least somewhat closer case.

The post Originalism and the "Major Questions" Doctrine appeared first on Reason.com.

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