Half Of Companies Planning Layoffs Or Hiring Freezes: Survey
A concerning survey of 700 US executives reveals that half of them are either actively reducing headcount, or plan to – while 52% have implemented hiring freezes, according to Bloomberg.
The survey, conducted last month by consultant PwC, also found that more than 40% of executives are rescinding job offers, while a similar amount are reducing or eliminating sign-on bonuses that were all the rage amid the tight job market just months ago.
On the bright side – around 2/3 of companies are boosting pay or expanding mental-health benefits, and 70% are planning to make remote work options permanent – though at the same time, 61% said they’re requiring staff to be on site more often – which can happen at the same time depending on the job (“Roles that don’t require much in-person collaboration could go remote for good, while other staffers could be required to get back to their desks a few times a week.”)
“Firms are playing offense and defense with their talent strategies,” According to PwC’s Bhushan Sethi, who noted that employers are weighing reputational damage and employee morale when considering layoffs. “People have long memories, and social media plays a much bigger role now.”
Bloomberg suggests that the findings illustrate “the contradictory nature of today’s labor market, where skilled workers can still largely name their terms amid talent shortages even as companies look to let people go elsewhere, particularly in hard-hit industries like technology and real estate.”
US job growth last month blew past economist estimates, while Labor Department data Thursday showed a drop in applications for unemployment insurance, suggesting demand for workers remains healthy. But layoffs and hiring freezes also are becoming more widespread, and not just at overheated tech startups that grew too fast. Oracle Corp., Walmart Inc. and Apple Inc. are among the big employers that have announced cutbacks in recent weeks. -Bloomberg
Withe fewer employees in offices, some organizations are looking to save on overhead – with more than 20% of those polled said they plan to decrease their investment in real estate. Conversely, 31% said they were boosting property investment.
In a major embarrassment for banking giant JP Morgan and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), a federal jury in a US criminal trial has convicted Michael Nowak, global head of JP Morgan’s precious metals trading and former LBMA board member, on 13 counts of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and spoofing prices in the gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures markets.
The same criminal trial jury, in a trial which was presided over by federal judge Edmond E. Chang of the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, also convicted Nowak’s colleague and JP Morgan precious metals trader, Gregg Smith, on 11 counts of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and spoofing. In a US federal trial, the jury the verdict has to be unanimous.
The charges against the JP Morgan global precious metals trading desk traders were brought by the US Government’s Department of Justice (DoJ) Criminal Division in a trial officially called “United States v. Smith (1:19-cr-00669)”. While the jury’s verdict found the two traders guilty of price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing, the jury also found both Nowak and Smith not guilty under one count each of a RICO conspiracy (the Racketeering Act) and a 371 conspiracy (conspiracy to defraud the United States).
The JP Morgan precious metals traders’ trial, which has generated a lot of media interest, began in Chicago on 8 July 2022 and continued until 29 July, after which the jury deliberated until 10 August before coming to a verdict.
“in a multi-year market manipulation scheme of precious metals futures contracts that spanned over eight years and involved thousands of unlawful trading sequences.”
Let’s repeat that.
Eight years! Thousands of unlawful trading sequences!
And not by some two-bit basement hustlers, but by JP Morgan’s global head of precious metals Nowak and his chief lieutenant Smith.
LBMA Board Member – Nowak
And Nowak was not just any old former LBMA board member back in the mists of time. Nowak was actually still a board member of the LBMA on the very day (Monday 16 September 2019) when the US Department of Justice indictment against him was unsealed, charging Nowak with federal crimes. See BullionStar article “LBMA Board Member & JP Morgan Managing Director Charged with Rigging Precious Metals” from 17 September 2019.
Back in September 2019, the LBMA then inexplicably did nothing for almost a full work week, before being forced, on Friday 20 September 2019, to remove Nowak from the LBMA Board. See BullionStar article “LBMA Removes JP Morgan’s Michael Nowak from the LBMA Board” from 20 September 2019.
Minutes of LBMA Board meeting, 12 July 2019The 8 years in question over which JP Morgan’s Michael Nowak and Gregg Smith have now been convicted of being engaged in a “widespread spoofing, market manipulation, and fraud scheme” spanned the period between “approximately May 2008 and August 2016”.
Specifically, per the DoJ press release:
“The defendants engaged in thousands of deceptive trading sequences for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts traded through the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX), which are commodities exchanges operated by CME Group Inc.
These deceptive orders were intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts into the markets.”
A third member of the same JP Morgan team, precious metals desk salesman, Jeffrey Ruffo, who was also on trial in Chicago along with Nowak and Smith, was acquitted by the federal jury. Ruffo had only been charged with a RICO conspiracy and a 371 conspiracy and was found by the jury to be not guilty on both of those charges.
The reason the RICO and 371 conspiracies were part of this trial is that in addition to the charges against the JP Morgan precious metals traders of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing, the US Department of Justice’s indictment against Nowak, Smith, Ruffo (and a 4th JP Morgan trader Christopher Jordan) included conspiracy under the RICO Act and engaging in a conspiracy.
The RICO Act refers to the US Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO Act). Specifically, the latest (pre-trial) indictment filed by the DoJ on 16 November 2021 included charging each of Nowak, Smith, Ruffo and Jordan with one count of RICO conspiracy and one count of “371 conspiracy”.
A 371 conspiracy refers to the US general conspiracy statute (18 U.S.C. § 371) where “two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose. In short, the 371 conspiracy statute “prohibits conspiracies to defraud the United States”.
The reason Christopher Jordan was not on trial with Nowak, Smith and Ruffo during July 2022 was that back in 2020, Jordan’s lawyers successfully convinced a Chicago federal judge that Jordan should have a separate trial “citing concerns about unfair treatment if tried alongside the others”. Talk about fear of ‘guilty by association”.
Christopher Jordan is therefore now awaiting his own trial in the future, at a date yet to be scheduled.
At the same time though, Christopher Jordan’s name continued to be listed in all the DoJ indictments submitted to the court, including the latest one dated 16 November 2021, which reads as follows:
SECOND SUPERSEDING INDICTMENT as to
1 Gregg Smith count(s) 1ss, 2ss, 3ss, 5ss-12ss, 24ss, 26ss,
2 Michael Nowak count(s) 1ss, 2ss, 4ss, 13ss-22ss, 25ss, 27ss,
3 Jeffrey Ruffo count(s) 1s, 2s,
4 Christopher Jordan count(s) 1ss, 2ss, 23ss (lma, )
(Entered: 11/17/2021)
See document number 448 here, on the Court Listener website.
The various numbers relating to the counts are explained as follows:
1ss = Count 1 = RICO conspiracy
2 ss = Count 2 = 371 Conspiracy
3ss & 4 ss = Counts 3 (Smith) and Count 4 (Nowak) = Attempted price manipulation
For a definition of Commodities Fraud, see the DOJ page here. For a definition of Wire Fraud, see the DoJ page here. Wire Fraud is any fraud (intentional deception for monetary or personal gain) committed via an electronic from of communication, and that is ‘interstate’ in nature, and is usually investigated by the FBI.
The Verdict: Nowak guilty of 13 counts, Smith guilty of 11
Fast forward to 10 August and the federal jury in the “United States v. Smith (1:19-cr-00669)” trial handed down its verdict, a verdict which found:
Nowak guilty of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing (i.e. guilty of 4 different offences under 13 counts)
Smith guilty of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing (i.e. guilty of 4 different offences under 11 counts)
This docket entry was made by the Clerk on Wednesday, August 10, 2022:
MINUTE entry before the Honorable Edmond E. Chang:
Jury deliberations held.
Jury reaches a verdict on the three trial Defendants and on all the charges.
[A.] Defendant Smith found not guilty on Counts 1 (RICO conspiracy) and 2 (371 conspiracy); guilty on Count 3 (attempted price manipulation); guilty on Counts 5 through 12 (wire fraud); guilty on Count 24 (commodities fraud); and guilty on Count 26 (spoofing).
[B.] Defendant Nowak found not guilty on Counts 1 (RICO conspiracy) and 2 (371 conspiracy); guilty on Count 4 (attempted price manipulation); guilty on Counts 13 through 22 (wire fraud); guilty on Count 25 (commodities fraud); and guilty on Count 27 (spoofing).
[C.] Defendant Ruffo found not guilty on Counts 1 (RICO conspiracy) and 2 (371 conspiracy). Defendant Ruffo is discharged and dismissed from this case and release conditions are vacated. Pretrial Services shall return Defendant Ruffo’s passport.
[D.] Rule 29 and 33 motions are due on 09/21/2022. The government’s combined response is due on 10/26/2022. The defense replies are due on 11/16/2022.
[E.] The courtroom deputy will contact the lawyers about sentencing dates in 2023. The case is referred to the Probation Office for PSR preparation. Emailed notice (eec)
Eagle eyed readers may have spotted that count 23 of the DoJ indictment was not addressed by the jury in the Nowak-Smith-Ruffo trial. This is because that charge relates to Christopher Jordan, and will be addressed in Jordan’s separate trial.
Points D and E on the jury verdict Docket Entry are interesting. Point D says that “Rule 29 and 33 motions are due on 09/21/2022”.
Rule 29 in US federal courts refers to a “motion for judgement of acquittal”. Rule 33 refers to the ability of defendants asking for a new trial. So given these possibilities, and the subsequent responses and replies, these legal routes, if used, could drag on until mid-November.
As per point [E], a sentencing date will be scheduled for 2023. The ‘PSR’ in point [E] is an abbreviation for a “Pre-Sentence Report”. A “Pre-Sentence Report” is a report prepared by a probation officer upon conviction of a defendant which helps the judge determine what sentence to impose.
Nowak’s attorney, David Meister (who unbelievably at one time was Head of Enforcement at the CFTC until 2013), stated on 10 August that Nowak will now fight the trial jury verdict:
“‘While we are gratified that the jury acquitted Mr. Nowak of racketeering and conspiracy, we are extremely disappointed by the jury’s verdict on the whole, and will continue to seek to vindicate his rights in court,’ Nowak’s attorney David Meister said.“
A Conspiracy – So said Edmonds and Trunz
It’s important to remember that while this trial was brought by the US Department of Justice’s Criminal Division, it arose out of a joint investigation by the DoJ, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) into JP Morgan and market manipulation, and the investigation also had the help of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and CFTC. As per the DoJ’s 10 August press release:
“The FBI’s New York Field Office investigated the case. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Enforcement provided assistance in this matter.”
It’s also important to remember that during the trail of JP Morgan’s Nowak, Smith and Ruffo, the prosecution’s witnesses included former colleagues of the JP Morgan precious metals traders, namely John Edmonds, Christian Trunz, and Corey Flaum, all three of whom testified during the trial.
John Edmonds and Christian Trunz formerly worked as precious metals traders on the JP Morgan global precious metals desk, and Corey Flaum was a colleague of Gregg Smith when they both worked as precious metals traders at Bear Stearns.
The reason that Edmonds, Trunz, and Flaum were testifying in the Nowak-Smith-Ruffo trial on behalf of the US Government is that each of Edmonds, Trunz, and Flaum had already pleaded guilty in their own trials, and then agreed to testify on behalf of the prosecution in the Nowak-Smith-Ruffo trial that there was a conspiracy between the traders, and that the price manipulations and spoofing occurred in the context of the desk traders conspiring.
For example, the DoJ titled it’s 16 September 2019 press release when charging Nowak, Smith and Ruffo as “a Multi-Year Market Manipulation Racketeering Conspiracy”, saying that “the defendants and their co-conspirators were members of [JP Morgan’s] global precious metals trading desk in New York, London and Singapore”, and:
“As it relates to the RICO conspiracy, the defendants and their co-conspirators were allegedly members of an enterprise—namely, the precious metals desk at [JP Morgan] – and conducted the affairs of the desk through a pattern of racketeering activity, specifically, wire fraud affecting a financial institution and bank fraud.”
Edmonds and Trunz even pleaded guilty to there being a conspiracy on the JP Morgan precious metals desk.
“commodities fraud and a spoofing conspiracy in connection with his participation in fraudulent and deceptive trading activity in the precious metals futures contracts markets”,
And Edmonds admitted that:
“from approximately 2009 through 2015, he conspired with other precious metals traders at the Bank to manipulate the markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the COMEX and NYMEX.”
Edmonds even “admitted that he learned this deceptive trading strategy from more senior traders at the Bank [JP Morgan]”.
On 20 August 2019, Christian Trunz, “a former precious metals trader at the London, Singapore and New York offices of JP Morgan” (yes Trunz was based in all 3 locations at various times) pleaded guilty in the Eastern District of New York “to one count of conspiracy to engage in spoofing and one count of spoofing in connection with his precious metals futures contracts trading at JPMorgan” and admitted that:
“between approximately July 2007 and August 2016, [he] placed thousands of orders that he did not intend to execute for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the NYMEX and COMEX).”
Trunz even said that he “learned to spoof from more senior traders, and spoofed with the knowledge and consent of his supervisors.”
Corey Flaum (who worked with Gregg Smith at Bear Sterns before Smith moved to JP Morgan) also pleaded guilty (on 25 July 2019) to attempted commodities price manipulation and admitted that: “between approximately June 2007 and July 2016, [he] placed thousands of orders to manipulate the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on COMEX and NYMEX.”
See here for Edmonds testimony, here for Flaum’s testimony, and here for Trunz’s testimony.
What is a Typical “Racketeering” Enterprise?
As to why the federal jury didn’t find Nowak and Smith (and Ruffo) guilty on the counts of the RICO conspiracy and the 371 conspiracy, that is something that only the jury knows.
Maybe the jury could not grasp what exactly a racketeering enterprise is defined as, and the Court didn’t explain it. This may sound like a joke, but on 27 July 2022, just before the jury began its deliberations, the Court told the jury as follows:
“On closing arguments, the Court sets the following directives based on certain incidents at trial so far. … (3.) No evidence has been introduced on what a typical “racketeering” enterprise is like (nor would it likely have been allowed), so there can be no argument on that topic.”
See Note 651 about the trial on the Court Listener website here.
Why exactly evidence on what a typical racketeering enterprise looks like “would likely not have been allowed” will have to be left to US federal court experts to interpret. Maybe the defense attorneys were terrified that the prosecution would show the jury some photos of “The Godfather” and JP Morgan’s precious metals desk side by side, asking them to “spot the difference”.
Modern day trading desks use a myriad of chat apps and messaging apps integrated into their trading workflow. Were the chat app messages of the defendants and their trading colleagues at JP Morgan not submitted as evidence and shown to the jury? And likewise, were the chat app messages of the JP Morgan defendants and their trading colleagues that they sent and received from traders at other bullion banks not submitted as evidence and shown to the jury?
In any case, the DoJ’s prosecution lawyers and their witnesses (Edmonds, Trunz and Flaum) did inform the jury as to what they think a racketeering enterprise looks like – See Exhibit 1 below.
CFTC Silver Investigation – Gensler – Meister – Nowak
Before wrapping up, an interesting Note appeared during the Nowak -Smith trial which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would probably prefer to forget, so I will highlight it here. Its about silver price manipulation.
First off, here’s some background about how, in 2013, the CFTC closed down a five year investigation into silver price manipulation, claiming they had found no evidence of any wrongdoing. As explained in a BullionStar article from 4 March 2021:
“For anyone familiar with the CFTC and the silver market will immediately have raised their eyebrows that the CFTC “remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation.”
As a reminder, this is the same CFTC that on 25 September 2013 after a 5-year investigation into whether the COMEX silver futures market was manipulated by JP Morgan and other banks, closed down the investigation, saying that its Division of Enforcement and Division of Market Oversight had found no evidence of wrongdoing, despite spending 7,000 staff hours on said investigation since 2008. The CFTC head of enforcement at that time was David Meister, who then left the CFTC only one week after closing down the silver investigation, in a job well done.
Not only that, but the CFTC’s silver market investigation that ran from 2008 -2013 was only one of three investigations into the silver market manipulation that the CFTC held starting in 2004. From Bloomberg:
“And three times, starting in 2004, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also looked into allegations of market manipulation of the silver market by JPMorgan.”
The CFTC closed the third of those three inquiries in 2013 without taking action.”
Not only that, but would you believe that the same David Meister (who left the CFTC in 2013 after closing down the CFTC investigation into silver market manipulation) was Michael Nowak’s defense attorney in the Nowak July 2022 federal trial and is the attorney for Nowak’s probable appeal. You probably wouldn’t believe it, except for the fact that it’s true.
This is the same David Meister who Chambers, the global authority on lawyer bios and profiles, calls “the Gensler Whisperer”. Yes, you read that correctly. Chambers says:
“David is killing it. People call him the ‘Gensler Whisperer’.”
Of David Meister, ex CFTC head of enforcement, & current defence counsel for Michael Nowak in the JP Morgan precious metals trader trial, Chambers says: “David is killing it. People call him the ‘Gensler Whisperer’.” Yes, this is about Gary Gensler 🐎 https://t.co/x4wGOdF8n2
You’ve probably heard of dog whisperers, and even horse whisperers. But a Gensler Whisperer? Does this mean that David Meister was able to whisper to Gensler to back off CFTC investigations, and could it have anything to do with calling off the CFTC’s silver market manipulation investigation back in 2013?
Now back to the Note. On 8 July 2022, on the subject of silver-investigation limiting instructions, a note was added as part of the Opening statements which said:
“Government Exhibits 369 and 370 relate to a separate civil investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) into complaints about silver prices. The CFTC’s separate investigation was not part of the Department of Justice’s investigation that led to the prosecution in this case, and the complaints about silver prices are not at issue in this case.
During its investigation, the CFTC interviewed a number of individuals, including Mr. Nowak. Government Exhibits 369 and 370 are excerpts of Mr. Nowak’s interview by the CFTC in 2010. For your background information, the CFTC closed the inquiry without bringing claims against any company or person.”
See Note 604 from Court Listener coverage of the trail, link here.
So now, given that the CFTC interviewed Michael Nowak in 2010 as part of its investigation into silver price manipulation, but then closed down that investigation in 2013 after finding nothing, and given that now that the federal jury has found Nowak guilty of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing, does this mean the CFTC will want to interview Michael Nowak again?
Upon hearing of the jury’s verdict against JP Morgan’s Nowak and Smith on 10 August, the Department of Justice’s Assistant Attorney General (AG) Kenneth A. Polite, Jr. commented that:
“Today’s jury verdict demonstrates that those who seek to manipulate our public financial markets will be held accountable and brought to justice.”
The DoJ’s assistant AG also said that:
“with this verdict, the Department has secured convictions of ten former traders at Wall Street financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, The Bank of Nova Scotia, and Morgan Stanley.”
However, why did the Department of Justice’s period of investigation only cover the 8 years from 2008 up to August 2016 but not since then? What about from August 2016 up August 2022? Another full 6 years has elapsed since then. Did JP Morgan and the other convicted LBMA bullion banks’ trading desks suddenly stop spoofing manipulating precious metals prices in August 2016?
Are we to believe that no commodities fraud, price manipulation, spoofin or fraud has occurred on the COMEX since August 2016?
What does the LBMA, the self-styled world’s authority on precious metals, have to say now that one of it’s board members, Nowak (indicted in September 2019 while he was on the LBMA Board), has now been found guilty by a US Federal trial jury on 13 counts of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing prices in the gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures markets?
JP Morgan is still at the core of the LBMA. Specifically, JP Morgan is a LBMA market making member, a LBMA London vault operator, a LBMA clearing member (via LPMCL), a direct participant in the LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price daily auctions, and a representative on various LBMA committees. JP Morgan is also a market making member of the LBMA’s sister organisation, the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM).
Likewise, given that the JP Morgan global precious metals trading desk spans the 3 locations of New York, London and Singapore, how will the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA) and the US COMEX react to this jury verdict? And will other regulators such as the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Singapore’s Monetary Authority (MAS) now launch investigations against JP Morgan’s precious metals desk?
Finally, will the LBMA now make a statement distancing itself from JP Morgan, and move to expel JP Morgan from its membership, or will the LBMA carry on, pretending that the convictions of four JP Morgan precious metals traders (Nowak, Smith, Edmonds and Trunz) by the US DoJ is of no concern to the integrity of the commodities markets and has no bearing on its own code of conduct and best practices, the LBMA Global Precious Metals Code, a code which JP Morgan has signed.
Maybe the LBMA could even invite Nowak back on to the LBMA Board when the dust settles, if he appeals the jury verdict, or even from behind bars. Because according to Michael Nowak’s LinkedIn profile, Nowak is still a JP Morgan employee, not former, but very much still ‘Managing Director at J.P. Morgan’ an also still J.P. Morgan’s ‘Global Head of Base and Precious Metals Trading’ from July 1996 to ‘Present’.
Reacting to the new UK car registration figures from SMMT for July, Chief Executive Mike Hawes said:
“The automotive sector has had another tough month and is drawing on its fundamental resilience during a third consecutive challenging year as the squeeze on supply bedevils deliveries. While order books are strong, we need a healthy market to ensure the sector delivers the carbon savings government ambitions demand.”
As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, despite the clear crisis the world events of the last few years have caused for the industry, there are certain types of car which are still seeing growing demand.
As this infographic with the latest figures as of July 31 shows, demand for petrol and diesel cars in 2022 has shrunk by 19 and 49 percent compared to the same point in 2021, respectively. Battery-powered cars are weathering the storm though, posting growth of 50 percent, while hybrid electric vehicles were the only other type to see growth – 21 percent.
However, on a monthly basis however, BEV production is showing signs of weakness to the global supply chain issues. As SMMT describes, July was “the weakest monthly uplift recorded by BEVs since the pandemic,” adding, “overall growth in the year has reached 50 percent to deliver a 14 percent market share, illustrating the volatility in the supply chain.”
“Tell them the North remembers. Tell them Winter is Coming.”
The outlook for the UK looks increasingly grim. There are few reasons to hope a new government can reverse the mounting consumer fears, stagflation and the growing sense of decline.
Yesterday was cold, wet and grey. The sudden end of the glorious summer highlights how dark and bleak the mood in the UK has become. UK Consumer confidence has collapsed to levels not seen since the 1970s. London has ground to a halt with tube and rail strikes. Its not just the cost of living crisis – which, to be blunt, has only just begun and will get much, much worse as winter deepens– but folk are losing confidence in the broken mechanics of the economy, the absence of leadership and a growing sense things won’t get any better.
The country feels like its sinking into a treacle of energy-sucking, suffocating despond. Everything in Britain feels broken: the NHS is too crowded to treat patients, excess death rates show untreated cancers, heart-disease and stokes from lockdown now far outnumber Covid deaths, the police are so overloaded they have stopped even bothering to investigate crime, while airports are blocked, trains don’t work, and it really doesn’t matter because you can’t get a passport or driving licence renewed. As the rains come down, we’re under threat of dire authoritarian punishment if we dare use a garden hose – although to be fair, who is going to arrest you?
Thank heaven we’re about to get a new prime minister – SARCASM ALERT.
Do you really expect a bright Sun of Economic Hope to suddenly come up on Sept 5th? If so, go see a shrink – if you can get an appointment.
Liz Truss – nailed on as the winner and next Prime Minister- will be taking office early next month, and the expectations could not be lower. She’s being painted as lacklustre at best – and I fear that’s a severe overestimate, but please surprise me! I still have little idea what she stands for – but the folk backing her, and setting her narrative might. I have no clue what her secret sauce to reanimate the UK is. Thus far, all the noise of has been about playing to the 160,000 wealthy, elderly white Tory men who have the vote in the leadership contest, rather than the 60 million Brits she will notionally represent.
Her announced policies, like merging banking regulator, the PRA, into the FCA, are pointless tinkering at best. But it makes a point – her overriding concern in office will be ensuring others carry the can for the crisis, so first up against the wall will likely be Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, and the Bank’s notional independence.
If what we remember about the great recession of 2022-2025 is it was Bailey’s fault – then the history books will need rewritten.
What the nation needs as we sink into the deepest recession in living memory is a Government of Talents – not a bunch of middling political hacks, or a fourth somewhat pointless Prime Minister in a row.
Maybe Liz Truss will surprise us – but it feels unlikely. Still, we live in hope. UK Politics will remain in thrall to Brexit (the dark, malign canker festering at the heart of the UK), which will continue to dominate the agenda and eat away the nation’s trade and export position – to engage with Europe to find a mutually beneficial compromise is utterly unacceptable to the TRG Taliban. Expect lots of union bashing for their temerity asking for pay rises as inflation remains stubbornly strong. Little will be done to reinvent, innovate and rebuild the broken institutions of State.
The core goals of the new government will be short-term survival and looking a little bit better than the opposition Labour party – because all that matters is winning the next election in just a few years time.
The next two years will not be a time of economic innovation. In Germany, the government recently slashed the price of rail travel, and it had an enormous positive effect in terms of long distance travel with multiplier effects from domestic tourism and work. In Germany a monthly railpass anywhere costs 9 Euros. In the UK it costs me nearly £100 every time I go to London.
I said it was bleak.
A fund manager asked me for my views on UK Bonds yesterday – my answer was relatively less bad than the outlook for UK stocks. At least with Gilts you are likely to get your money back – albeit Sterling will probably be much, much lower. As for UK mid-caps and SMEs, which have been on a run, it’s likely the coming recession will see them suffer. Time to go defensive in UK stocks. The UK’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity may be tested – the mechanism whereby the political stability and effectiveness of a nation, its bond market and currency form a strong tripod. If any leg breaks – then it spells deep, deep trouble.
But, not for me the misery of UK politics… last night I snuck off to Salcombe, the jewel of the Devon Riviera where I inadvertently came close to triggering a civil war. The greatest divide in UK society is the Cream Tea. Does the Jam go on top or the Clotted Cream, or the other way round? Cornwall and Devon have been in state of cold war over this critical distinction for decades. I did the Cornish thing – Cream on top of the Jam. It makes perfect sense. Devon folk were horrified. Jam goes on top of the crème in Devon. I had to pay a considerable forfeit, hence this morning I am struggling with a H2O/C2H5OH electrolyte imbalance. Ouch. If anyone ever offers you Devon Rum – run.
However, I did find myself sitting with some very interesting people. To dine with one economist could be considered a misfortune. To sit with two looks downright careless, but to sit with three – well that’s asking for confusion.
3 economists – and at least 5 contradictory perspectives on where the UK economy is likely going, with myself throwing in some random distractions.
Surprisingly, the most right-wing inclined member of our informal brains trust was of the opinion the correct UK policy now is no intertest rate hikes at all – they are the wrong response to the wrong signals – but a massive economic stimulus to avoid a devastating and deep recession.“Ride inflation, because you can’t control it”, he said. Inflation has been triggered by an exogenous energy shock, but to try to cool the economy by inflicting monetary pain to stem demand will simply exacerbate real inflation in the form of wage demands and perceived shortages driving up prices – he also sagely noted how the big supermarkets have quietly withdrawn their cheapest economy brands, taking advantage of inflation to boost their margins.
The second economist took a very different view: speed is of the essence, the BOE has moved too slowly, policy mistakes make things worse, and now we need immediate austerity, tax neutrality, and interest hikes to swiftly re-balance the economy and impose control. Inflation must be brought down swiftly, or it will become entrenched, and have massive long-term consequences. Wages must be constrained – frankly the best way to calm inflation is an old-fashioned scare-the-bejesus out of workers sense of job security to undermine wage demands. She balanced her draconian measures with serious tax hikes on the uber-wealthy, proposing new property taxes on anyone with second homes or leaving the country to escape punitive taxation.
The third economist was looking at the long-term decline in UK productivity and wondering what policies are possible now to put the UK back on track for a prosperous economic future – but concluded we will remain in fight/flight mode with short-term fire-fighting on recession, wage inflation, consumer crisis and election cycles, means it’s all going to be about satisficing and short-term policies with damaging long-term consequences.
Louisiana cattle rancher Jason Smith has won a case filed against him by a county sheriff who wrongly claimed a state law that exempts Louisiana farm products from sales taxes didn’t apply to Smith’s meat sales.
A decorated Marine Corps veteran, Smith retired from the service several years ago to go work with his dad at Smith Angus Farm, a ranch that’s been in the family for more than 100 years.
“The ranch has sold its beef directly to consumers since 2019, and it’s a key part of the business,” NOLA.com reportedlast week. “But selling meat has the Smith family farm at odds with Washington Parish Sheriff Randy ‘Country’ Seal, who has sued in state court, alleging that Smith’s sales aren’t covered under a state law that allows Louisiana farmers to sell many products tax-free.”
The sheriff’s interpretation of the law was news to Smith. “I was like ‘you gotta be kidding me,'” Smith said. But Sheriff Seal, who Smith pointedly notes“is also the tax collection authority here,” was not kidding.
Before Seal decided to target him, Smith had no reason to think the tax-exempt farm products he sells directly to consumers were taxable. The trouble for Smith, whose ranch occupies 240 hilly and bucolic acres, began last fall when Seal, an elected Republican sheriff allegedly acting on the advice of counsel, determined such foods as steaks and ground beef are not tax-exempt farm products.
“The tax collector maintains that the term ‘livestock’ is not the equivalent of ground meat or other processed meat items sold direct from a farm,” Seal toldthe court.
Farm products sold by a producer directly to consumers are explicitly exempt from sales and use taxes under Louisiana’s revised statutes(“The gross proceeds derived from the sale in this state of livestock, poultry, and other farm products direct from the farm are exempted from the tax levied by taxing authorities, provided that such sales are made directly by the producers.”) and tax code (“Any sale of livestock, poultry, or other farm products made directly from the farm and directly by the producer regardless of the purpose to which it will be put when sold is exempt from these taxes.”).
If that wasn’t clear to Seal, then an October ruling by the state’s department of revenue titled Sales Tax Exemption Applies to Sales of Farm Products ‘Direct from the Farm’ by the Producers, issued the same month Seal filed suit against Smith, should’ve made it so.
If that still didn’t clear things up for Seal, the letter Louisiana Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain sent to the sheriff probably should’ve driven the point home. “Based on these statutes, farm products raised on the farm and sold directly to consumers by the farmer are tax exempt,” wroteStrain, who also noted the law “can’t be any clearer.”
But “can’t be any clearer” still wasn’t clear enough for Seal. Smith says he “reached out to the sheriff, but was told they ‘were dead set on taking it to trial.’“
Seal was dead set on wasting taxpayers’ money, wasting Smith’s time and money, and losing in court. Last week, District Judge Alan Zaunbrecher sided with Smith.
“The court finds that the broad terms ‘farm products’ would include ‘livestock’ and ‘livestock products,” Judge Zaunbrecher ruled, NOLA.com reports, noting Smith’s ranch “is clearly the producer of the farm product.”
Smith, victorious, has dared “Country” Seal to appeal. “If he really believes in his case, and needs clarification on the English language, then he should appeal,” Smith toldProgressive Farmer in the wake of the ruling. “Otherwise, he should admit that he cynically brought this case forward in a shameless attempt to generate revenue by publicly apologizing and offering to pay my legal expenses.”
In an obnoxious Facebook post over the weekend, the Washington Parish Sheriff’s Office said it would not appeal the ruling and attempted to explain why its office had gone after a local farmer.
“Sheriff Seal filed the lawsuit on behalf of the citizens of Washington Parish, all of whom benefit from the collection of sales tax which is distributed to various recipients, including school systems, parish and municipal governments, law enforcement agencies and other entities as specified by law,” the post declares. “The litigation was filed on the advice of counsel and with no animus against any parish business.”
Balderdash. I think Smith got it exactly right: “Country” Seal’s actions were nothing more than a cynical and shameless attempt to generate revenue by ignoring the letter of the law.
Smith says the idiotic lawsuit against him has had a silver lining. “Randy Seal has drummed up a lot of business for me,” Smith told NOLA.com. “I have people for bulk orders, lots of people just wanna buy a couple packages of steaks.”
While the judge’s ruling this month only applies to Smith, it should also protect at least 100 other Louisiana farmers and ranchers who sell products from their farms directly to consumers in the state. Indeed, if the judge had ruled otherwise, “it could mean that dozens of other farms around the state that sell their goods could be forced to pay sales taxes, which would mean higher prices for customers that might drive down demand for their locally produced products”—causing “huge losses” for Louisiana’s small ranchers.
“[T]he producer here was selling meat from animals grown on its land and was therefore exempt from the tax requirements the agency attempted to impose,” says Alexia Kulwiec, executive director of the nonprofit Farm-to-Consumer Legal Defense fund (where I serve on the board). “As consumers continue to demand locally produced foods, government agencies should be making it easier rather than more difficult for small producers to provide nutritious food in their communities.”
I’m glad Washington Parish residents are supporting Smith. I hope those same residents vote to recall Seal. With animus.
Used Aframax Tanker Prices Soar As Oil Traders Reap Big Profits On Russian Trade Route
Remember when Western sanctions on Russia were meant to paralyze its economy, destroy the ruble, and then implode its lucrative commodity trading channels? Well, thank customers across Asia for keeping the nation’s oil trading flowing from the Far East.
Oil merchants, unaffected by Western sanctions, are taking advantage of a lucrative shipping lane, delivering Russian crude oil from the port of Kozmino near China and North Korea to customers in China and India.
Bloomberg spoke with shipbrokers (who asked not to be named) that said older Aframax vessels are being used on the Kozmino-to-China route. Since May, four tankers 15 years or older have joined the fleet of ships delivering Russian oil from Kozmino.
Kozmino handles about 30 cargoes of ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean) crude per month via vessels, each carrying about 700,000 barrels.
Merchants on this trade route (about a five-day voyage from Kozmino to China) using older Aframax vessels have been rewarded with elevated freight rates that have translated into high profits because of older and cheaper vessels.
The opportunities for merchants on this trade route have increased interest in used Aframax vessels as the value of these ships (about 15 years old) has soared 60% to about $29 million, according to VesselsValue data.
Olivia Watkins, head valuations analyst at VesselsValue, said high freight rates on the shipping lane had increased demand for older Aframax, allowing oil merchants to reap larger profits.
VesselsValue’s data shows 58 Aframaxes have been bought and sold this year, 50% more than last year in the same period.
So the rejiggering of global supply chains due to Western sanctions on Russia has created an opportunity for oil traders in Asia. In return, used Aframax prices are soaring.
At the height of the pandemic, the United Nations recruited over 100,000 “digital first responders’ to push the establishment narrative on COVID via social media.
The revelation actually slipped out in October 2020 during a World Economic Forum podcast called ‘Seeking a cure for the infodemic’, although it is only going viral on Twitter today.
In the podcast, Melissa Fleming, head of global communications for the United Nations, explains how the COVID pandemic and lockdowns created a “communications crisis” in addition to a public health emergency.
Fleming acknowledged that in order to fight so-called “misinformation” about the pandemic, the UN tapped up 110,000 people to amplify their messaging across social media.
“So far, we’ve recruited 110,000 information volunteers, and we equip these information volunteers with the kind of knowledge about how misinformation spreads and ask them to serve as kind of ‘digital first-responders’ in those spaces where misinformation travels,” Fleming stated.
That was nearly 2 years ago. It is not known how many ‘digital first responders’ have been recruited up to this point.
Similar efforts to create astroturf campaigns to push a specific message are nothing new, but when entities such as oil companies engage in it, they are lambasted for rigging the discussion.
However, when globalist technocrats at the UN or the WEF do it, apparently it’s fine.
Last year, it was revealed that the British government used “propagandistic” fear tactics to scare the public into mass compliance during the first COVID lockdown, according to a behavioral scientist who worked inside Downing Street.
Scientists in the UK working as advisors for the government admitted using what they later conceded to be “unethical” and “totalitarian” methods of instilling fear in the population in order to control behavior during the pandemic.
As we previously highlighted, the World Economic Forum is now advocating for the merger of human and artificial intelligence systems to censor “hate speech” and “misinformation” online before it is even allowed to be posted.
In what some dubbed “preemptive censorship,” the WEF is creating a system that would block posts from appearing if they fail the censorship filter.
Of course, the WEF, which is infamous for blocking its critics on Twitter, would never abuse such a system to shield itself from scrutiny.
Louisiana cattle rancher Jason Smith has won a case filed against him by a county sheriff who wrongly claimed a state law that exempts Louisiana farm products from sales taxes didn’t apply to Smith’s meat sales.
A decorated Marine Corps veteran, Smith retired from the service several years ago to go work with his dad at Smith Angus Farm, a ranch that’s been in the family for more than 100 years.
“The ranch has sold its beef directly to consumers since 2019, and it’s a key part of the business,” NOLA.com reportedlast week. “But selling meat has the Smith family farm at odds with Washington Parish Sheriff Randy ‘Country’ Seal, who has sued in state court, alleging that Smith’s sales aren’t covered under a state law that allows Louisiana farmers to sell many products tax-free.”
The sheriff’s interpretation of the law was news to Smith. “I was like ‘you gotta be kidding me,'” Smith said. But Sheriff Seal, who Smith pointedly notes“is also the tax collection authority here,” was not kidding.
Before Seal decided to target him, Smith had no reason to think the tax-exempt farm products he sells directly to consumers were taxable. The trouble for Smith, whose ranch occupies 240 hilly and bucolic acres, began last fall when Seal, an elected Republican sheriff allegedly acting on the advice of counsel, determined such foods as steaks and ground beef are not tax-exempt farm products.
“The tax collector maintains that the term ‘livestock’ is not the equivalent of ground meat or other processed meat items sold direct from a farm,” Seal toldthe court.
Farm products sold by a producer directly to consumers are explicitly exempt from sales and use taxes under Louisiana’s revised statutes(“The gross proceeds derived from the sale in this state of livestock, poultry, and other farm products direct from the farm are exempted from the tax levied by taxing authorities, provided that such sales are made directly by the producers.”) and tax code (“Any sale of livestock, poultry, or other farm products made directly from the farm and directly by the producer regardless of the purpose to which it will be put when sold is exempt from these taxes.”).
If that wasn’t clear to Seal, then an October ruling by the state’s department of revenue titled Sales Tax Exemption Applies to Sales of Farm Products ‘Direct from the Farm’ by the Producers, issued the same month Seal filed suit against Smith, should’ve made it so.
If that still didn’t clear things up for Seal, the letter Louisiana Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain sent to the sheriff probably should’ve driven the point home. “Based on these statutes, farm products raised on the farm and sold directly to consumers by the farmer are tax exempt,” wroteStrain, who also noted the law “can’t be any clearer.”
But “can’t be any clearer” still wasn’t clear enough for Seal. Smith says he “reached out to the sheriff, but was told they ‘were dead set on taking it to trial.’“
Seal was dead set on wasting taxpayers’ money, wasting Smith’s time and money, and losing in court. Last week, District Judge Alan Zaunbrecher sided with Smith.
“The court finds that the broad terms ‘farm products’ would include ‘livestock’ and ‘livestock products,” Judge Zaunbrecher ruled, NOLA.com reports, noting Smith’s ranch “is clearly the producer of the farm product.”
Smith, victorious, has dared “Country” Seal to appeal. “If he really believes in his case, and needs clarification on the English language, then he should appeal,” Smith toldProgressive Farmer in the wake of the ruling. “Otherwise, he should admit that he cynically brought this case forward in a shameless attempt to generate revenue by publicly apologizing and offering to pay my legal expenses.”
In an obnoxious Facebook post over the weekend, the Washington Parish Sheriff’s Office said it would not appeal the ruling and attempted to explain why its office had gone after a local farmer.
“Sheriff Seal filed the lawsuit on behalf of the citizens of Washington Parish, all of whom benefit from the collection of sales tax which is distributed to various recipients, including school systems, parish and municipal governments, law enforcement agencies and other entities as specified by law,” the post declares. “The litigation was filed on the advice of counsel and with no animus against any parish business.”
Balderdash. I think Smith got it exactly right: “Country” Seal’s actions were nothing more than a cynical and shameless attempt to generate revenue by ignoring the letter of the law.
Smith says the idiotic lawsuit against him has had a silver lining. “Randy Seal has drummed up a lot of business for me,” Smith told NOLA.com. “I have people for bulk orders, lots of people just wanna buy a couple packages of steaks.”
While the judge’s ruling this month only applies to Smith, it should also protect at least 100 other Louisiana farmers and ranchers who sell products from their farms directly to consumers in the state. Indeed, if the judge had ruled otherwise, “it could mean that dozens of other farms around the state that sell their goods could be forced to pay sales taxes, which would mean higher prices for customers that might drive down demand for their locally produced products”—causing “huge losses” for Louisiana’s small ranchers.
“[T]he producer here was selling meat from animals grown on its land and was therefore exempt from the tax requirements the agency attempted to impose,” says Alexia Kulwiec, executive director of the nonprofit Farm-to-Consumer Legal Defense fund (where I serve on the board). “As consumers continue to demand locally produced foods, government agencies should be making it easier rather than more difficult for small producers to provide nutritious food in their communities.”
I’m glad Washington Parish residents are supporting Smith. I hope those same residents vote to recall Seal. With animus.
