FBI Misled Judge in Obtaining Warrant to Seize Hundreds of Safe Deposit Boxes


safe deposit boxes

The FBI told a federal magistrate judge that it intended to open hundreds of safe deposit boxes seized during a March 2021 raid in order to inventory the items inside—but new evidence shows that federal agents were plotting all along to use the operation as an opportunity to forfeit cash and other valuables.

Federal agents failed to disclose those plans to the federal magistrate judge who issued the warrant for the high-profile raid of U.S. Private Vaults, a private business in Beverly Hills, California, that had been the subject of an FBI investigation since at least 2019. When the raid took place, the FBI also seems to have ignored limitations imposed by the warrant, including an explicit prohibition against using the safe deposit boxes as the basis for further criminal investigations.

Those details regarding the planning and execution of the FBI’s raid of U.S. Private Vaults are now out in the open after a different federal judge ruled this week that the government could not keep those details out of the public record. As Reason has extensively reported, the raid on U.S. Private Vaults resulted in federal agents seizing and attempting to forfeit more than $86 million in cash as well as gold, jewelry, and other valuables from property owners who were suspected of no crimes. Attorneys representing some plaintiffs who are trying to recover their possessions interviewed the FBI agents who planned the raid, but federal prosecutors tried to keep some details of those depositions redacted.

The unredacted legal documents, filed in federal court on Thursday, show why the government was eager to keep those details under wraps. (Reason filed an amicus brief in the case arguing that the redacted documents should be made public.)

In the affidavit submitted as part of the effort to obtain a warrant for the search, Assistant U.S. Attorney Andrew Brown wrote that federal agents intended to merely inventory the contents of the seized safe deposit boxes. But the newly unredacted documents show that the FBI had drawn up plans months earlier to forfeit property from the boxes, and failed to inform the magistrate judge about those plans.

“We had already determined that there was probable cause to move forward” with civil forfeiture proceedings against the contents of the safe deposit boxes before the search occurred, FBI Special Agent Jessie Murray said in a deposition, according to court documents.

Those crucial details were omitted from the affidavit submitted to the magistrate judge who granted the warrant that allowed the FBI to search U.S. Private Vaults. As Reason has previously detailed, that same warrant expressly forbade federal agents from engaging in a “criminal search or seizure of the contents of the safety [sic] deposit boxes.”

The newly unredacted documents suggest the FBI never intended to abide by that limitation. In a deposition, Special Agent Lynne Zellhart said she drew up “supplemental instructions” for the agents who would be conducting the raid of U.S. Private Vaults. They were instructed to be on the lookout for cash stored inside the safe deposit boxes and to note “anything which suggests the cash may be criminal proceeds.” Agents arranged to have drug-sniffing dogs present for the supposed inventory of the contents of the safe deposit boxes—which doesn’t do anything to help inventory items, of course, but makes more sense if the actual goal is to initiate forfeiture proceedings.

“The government misled the court about its forfeiture plans when applying for the seizure warrant, intentionally disregarded the warrant’s substantive limitations, and conducted a pretextual sham ‘inventory’ while searching for evidence of criminality,” wrote Robert Frommer and Robert Johnson, attorneys with the Institute for Justice, which is representing some of the victims of the U.S. Private Vaults raid.

In court documents, the attorneys say the government’s behavior “before, during, and after” the raid at U.S. Private Vaults is a violation of the Fourth Amendment, which protects Americans from unreasonable searches and seizures.

As Reason has previously reported, the inventories themselves were sloppily done, leaving the impression that agents were using the procedure as justification for a fishing expedition. The newly unsealed depositions seem to corroborate that view, as Zellhart’s supplemental instructions told agents to note cash that had “strong odors” or was packaged in such a way that might indicate it was connected to drug purchases.

The FBI had been investigating U.S. Private Vaults for more than five years and had previously targeted individuals suspected of using the business to stash the proceeds of criminal activity. In 2019, according to some of the newly unredacted depositions, federal agents shifted their approach and began building a case against the company as a whole.

But the raid that targeted the businesses also swept up the private property of hundreds of people suspected of no crime. In the same way that criminality by a landlord would not allow the police to search every apartment in a building the landlord owns, attorneys for the victims of the raid argue that there was no reason for the FBI to open and rifle through hundreds of safe deposit boxes belonging to people who were suspected of no crimes.

“The ‘inventory’ was a sham,” argue Frommer and Johnson in court documents. “Indeed, the whole idea of inventorying the vault was unreasonable on its face, as the best way to serve the purposes of an inventory would have been to leave the property safely locked away and appoint a receiver to wind down USPV’s business without an invasion of privacy.”

Unless, of course, that invasion of privacy was the whole point of the raid. The newly unredacted documents seem to suggest it was.

The post FBI Misled Judge in Obtaining Warrant to Seize Hundreds of Safe Deposit Boxes appeared first on Reason.com.

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If We See an Expurgated Version of the Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant Affidavit, What Will It Tell Us?


Depending on how heavily redacted it is, the Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit could substantiate the case for prosecuting Donald Trump.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart, who approved the FBI’s August 8 search of former President Donald Trump’s Palm Beach resort, yesterday indicated that he is inclined to release a redacted version of the affidavit supporting that warrant. Depending on how extensive the redactions are, that step could help answer lingering questions about the justification for the search, during which the FBI seized 11 sets of documents marked as classified. The affidavit also could clarify the viability of criminal charges against Trump or his underlings for taking and keeping those documents, along with other material that was not classified but belonged in the National Archives.

After several news organizations asked Reinhart to unseal the affidavit, the Justice Department argued that doing so would expose sensitive information and compromise the FBI’s ongoing investigation. During a hearing on the issue yesterday, Reinhart said it was “very important,” given the controversy over the FBI’s investigation, that the public see as much information as feasible. He later wrote that the government has “not met its burden of showing that the entire affidavit should remain sealed.” He asked the Justice Department to propose redactions by next Thursday.

Justice Department officials reportedly were surprised by Reinhart’s receptiveness to unsealing the affidavit, which explains why the FBI thought it had probable cause to believe the search would discover items “possessed in violation of” three federal laws. Although search warrant affidavits typically are kept under wraps until a criminal investigation is completed, Reinhart evidently thinks the issues raised by the FBI probe are important enough to depart from standard practice.

Jay Bratt, a Justice Department national security lawyer who urged Reinhart to keep the affidavit sealed, conceded that “there is heightened interest” in this case, which is putting it mildly. “This is likely an unprecedented situation,” Bratt added.

One conspicuous question raised by that situation is why the FBI thought Trump’s trove of government documents posed a national security threat grave enough to justify the unprecedented and politically explosive decision to search the home of a former president who is the leading contender to oppose the current president in the next election. We know almost nothing about the volume, contents, or precise location of the sensitive documents that the FBI seized.

Most of the documents seem to have been kept in a storage area secured by a padlock, which Trump’s staff replaced with a more tamper-resistant model at the Justice Department’s request. But The New York Times reports that the department, which subpoenaed Mar-a-Lago surveillance video, was alarmed by footage of people removing boxes from the storage room—a detail that the affidavit could clarify.

Kash Patel, who worked for the National Security Council under Trump and has represented him in negotiations with the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), has said the documents at Mar-a-Lago were related to “national security matters” as well as “Russiagate” and “the Ukraine impeachment.” The latter two subjects suggest that Trump may have collected material he thought would help make the case that those two investigations were part of a “deep state” conspiracy against him. Tim Weiner, a former national security reporter for the Times, notes that Patel “was one of the Trump appointees who led the attempt to uncover the secrets of the ‘deep state’ that consumed the president during his last year in power.”

Trump reportedly insisted that the records he retained after leaving office belonged to him. “It’s not theirs; it’s mine,” he said, according to “several” unnamed “advisers” cited by the Times. As Weiner notes, Richard Nixon took the same position regarding White House records, which prompted Congress to pass the Presidential Records Act in 1978. Under that law, “the United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records.” Except for Trump, Weiner says, every president since Nixon has complied with that statute.

The Presidential Records Act does not prescribe penalties for violating it. But 18 USC 2071, one of the laws cited in the Mar-a-Lago warrant, makes it a felony, punishable by up to three years in prison, to conceal, remove, or destroy a U.S. government document. To obtain a conviction, the government has to prove the defendant did that “willfully,” and the search warrant affidavit likely includes evidence supporting that element. In particular, the affidavit probably describes in detail the government’s efforts to recover the purloined documents and Trump’s resistance to those efforts.

In January, Trump’s representatives turned over 15 boxes of documents to NARA, which noticed that some were marked as classified. That prompted an investigation by the Justice Department, which obtained additional documents under a grand jury subpoena in June. Around the same time, The New York Times reports, “a Trump lawyer” gave the Justice Department “a written declaration” saying “all the material marked classified in the boxes had been turned over.”

According to the search warrant inventory, which was unsealed last week along with the warrant itself, that was not true. The FBI found documents with markings ranging from “confidential” to “top secret.” The top-secret documents included some labeled “SCI,” or “sensitive compartmented information,” an especially restricted category.

Contrary to those labels, Trump insists, the documents cited by the FBI were not actually classified. He says he had “a standing order” as president that automatically declassified anything he happened to remove from the Oval Office. John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser for 17 months in 2018 and 2019, thinks that is “almost certainly a lie.” Bolton told the Times he had never heard of Trump’s purported decree. Glenn Gerstell, who served as general counsel for the National Security Agency from 2015 to 2020, likewise told FactCheck.org he “was not aware” of any such policy, which would have been a haphazard and confusing approach to classified material.

Even if Trump declassified all the documents at Mar-a-Lago when he still had the authority to do so, that would not matter under 18 USC 2071, which applies to government records generally. Even 18 USC 793, the Espionage Act provision that was also cited in the warrant, does not mention classification, instead referring to “defense information.”

Under that law, someone who “willfully retains” defense information that he “has reason to believe could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation” is guilty of a felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison. The same penalties apply to someone who “through gross negligence” allows defense information “to be removed from its proper place of custody” or who fails to report such removal.

According to a search warrant cover sheet that Reinhart unsealed yesterday, the FBI is investigating “willful retention of national defense information.” If Trump repeatedly rebuffed attempts to recover defense-related documents, that could support such a charge, whether or not he actually issued the “standing order” that he describes. The search warrant affidavit could illuminate that issue.

The same goes for the third law mentioned in the warrant: 18 USC 1519, which makes it a felony, punishable by up to 20 years in prison, to conceal “any record, document, or tangible object” with the intent to “impede, obstruct, or influence” a federal investigation. While proving such an intent is no easy matter, the same pattern of behavior that could support charges under the other two statutes might support the inference that Trump deliberately tried to obstruct the investigation prompted by his document grab.

Given all the ways that the affidavit could flesh out the case for prosecuting Trump, his avowed eagerness to see “the immediate release of the completely unredacted affidavit” is rather puzzling. Trump surely is curious about the identities of the “witnesses interviewed by the government” that the Justice Department mentions in its brief arguing that the affidavit should not be unsealed. Since the warrant hinged on the expectation that unlawfully removed documents remained at Mar-a-Lago, those sources probably included insiders who had seen them there recently. But the names of those informants are bound to be redacted if the affidavit is unsealed, since the Justice Department warns that “the revelation of witness identities would impact their willingness to cooperate with the investigation” and deter other potential witnesses.

Trump’s insistence on “TRANSPARENCY” may be nothing more than a tactical ruse. Although he could have shared the search warrant and inventory even before Reinhart unsealed them, he chose not to do so, “ENCOURAGING the immediate release of those documents” only after the Justice Department asked Reinhart to approve it. And despite Trump’s demand for “the immediate release of the completely unredacted affidavit,” his lawyers notably did not participate in yesterday’s hearing, where their support for disclosure would have carried considerable weight.

Then again, the contrast between Trump’s statements regarding transparency and his actions may reflect a conflict between his impulses and his lawyers’ advice. It would not be the first time that Trump’s impetuosity clashed with his attorneys’ caution.

There are sound reasons why Trump’s legal advisers might be less keen on “TRANSPARENCY” than he is. It is hard to see how a one-sided narrative laying out the evidence that Trump broke the law would help his case.

Even that narrative may be obscured by the expurgation that the Justice Department recommends. As the Times notes, Reinhart “acknowledged that the redaction process could often be extensive and sometimes turned documents into ‘meaningless gibberish.'”

The post If We See an Expurgated Version of the Mar-a-Lago Search Warrant Affidavit, What Will It Tell Us? appeared first on Reason.com.

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Federal Judge Blocks Florida Law Banning ‘Woke’ Workplace Training


Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

When Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the Individual Freedom Act (a.k.a. the “Stop WOKE Act”) in April, he made it absolutely clear that his intent was to censor private speech.

“In Florida, we will not let the far-left woke agenda take over our schools and workplaces. There is no place for indoctrination or discrimination in Florida,” he said.

On Thursday, Chief U.S. District Judge Mark E. Walker of the U.S. District Court of the Northern District of Florida, Tallahassee Division, spent 44 pages of a decision patiently explaining that using government force to ban discussions of issues DeSantis doesn’t like is blatantly unconstitutional and ordered the state not to enforce the law.

The Individual Freedom Act (IFA) bans both schools and businesses from teaching or training students or employees a list of eight controversial ideas the law’s proponents associate with critical race theory. They include controversial concepts like the belief that people of a certain race are inherently racist or sexist (consciously or unconsciously), that people of a certain race are responsible for the racist behavior of their ancestors, or that certain values (like belief in excellence, hard work, or fairness) are racist in origin or used to oppress other races.

We can debate whether these are good or bad ideas. What’s not debatable is whether the state of Florida has the legal power to stop private employers from teaching these ideas. It does not, and by implementing the IFA, Walker notes that this part of the act “is a naked viewpoint-based regulation on speech that does not pass strict scrutiny” and cannot be enforced.

The state was sued by two employers (Honeyfund and Primo) who want to mandate training to employees that might violate this law and consulting firms (Orrin and Whitespace Consulting) who provide such training. They fear potential state investigations and lost business as a result of the IFA. Walker agreed that this gave the businesses standing to sue to attempt to block the law’s enforcement.

Walker quickly punctures Florida’s defense of the law by pointing out how it is clearly an attempt to censor one side of the debate but not the other:

Because the IFA covers any required activity, an employer could require every employee to read Woke, Inc., Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam but could not require employees to read The Color of Law. Worse still, a nonprofit corporation devoted to promoting the idea that white privilege exists could not hold a required meeting at which it endorses the concept of white privilege. But a nonprofit holding the opposite view could freely hold meetings criticizing the concept of white privilege.

The speech orientation of the law is clearly not neutral: It censors only one position on the controversy based on its viewpoint. Walker further rejects the state’s attempt to say that the act aims to regulate conduct, not speech. (This argument may be familiar to libertarians, who have seen states use it to try to unduly control who is and is not allowed to give advice.) Walker notes that laws against racist conduct at the workplace can be identified separately from speech. But IFA can only be understood through the lens of what is and is not said. It is entirely a regulation of speech, not conduct.

Walker then subjects the law to strict scrutiny, requiring the state to prove that it has a compelling interest to justify engaging in such censorship. To put it mildly, constitutional law is not on the state’s side here.

“The First Amendment does not give the state license to censor speech because it finds it ‘repugnant,’ no matter how captive the audience,” Walker writes. “And even assuming the IFA serves a compelling government interest—like prohibiting discrimination—it is not narrowly tailored. In large part, this is because the [Florida Civil Rights Act of 1992] already prohibited much of what Defendants claim the IFA aims to prohibit. For example, a diversity and inclusion training could be so offensive, and so hostile to White employees, that it could create a hostile work environment. That is already illegal—as both parties acknowledge.” Walker concludes that the IFA attacks ideas, not conduct, and so the plaintiffs are likely to win the case.

Walker also agrees with the plaintiffs that the IFA is “impermissibly vague” in how it defines the forbidden ideas, leaving it for the state to resolve and leaving employers unclear about what sort of discussion about race is and is not forbidden.

DeSantis’ own deliberate politicization of the issue is brought up as evidence that this is all viewpoint-based government censorship:

As detailed above, the IFA is designed to exorcise these viewpoints out of the marketplace of ideas—Governor DeSantis went so far as to call it the STOP WOKE Act at a press conference with children waving anti-critical race theory signs.

And so, Walker agreed to enjoin the state for now from enforcing the business training component. The American Civil Liberties Union is suing Florida to try to block the school discussion ban part of the bill as well.

The judicial smackdown against the state of Florida here looks remarkably similar to what happened in May with the DeSantis-approved bill that attempted to force social media companies to carry political messages by candidates for office. That law has also been temporarily enjoined as unconstitutional. While the reason appears to be in the opposite direction (Florida attempting to mandate that companies carry certain speech rather than ban it), the foundational issue is the same: The governor and lawmakers of Florida do not have as much authority to tell businesses operating in their state what sorts of speech are or are not permitted there as they claim.

What does this mean for the other high-profile DeSantis-supported speech bill—H.B. 1557, the Parental Rights in Education Bill, a.k.a. the “Don’t Say Gay Bill”? It’s also being challenged in federal court by families and educators as violating the First Amendment for the way it censors classroom discussions on LGBT issues.

Florida, of course, does have the power to determine classroom curriculum for public schools, and defenders of H.B. 1557 insist the law is about preventing inappropriate sexual discussions in kindergarten through third-grade classrooms. But that’s not actually what the law says. The law forbids any instruction on “sexual orientation or gender identity” at all in those grades and then further prohibits any instruction throughout public schooling that is not “age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate” for students without defining what any of that means.

The end result has been wide disagreement with what H.B. 1557 actually bans, prompting books to be removed from libraries and teachers to claim they’re being told to not wear clothing that could invite children to ask questions about LGBT issues (like shirts with rainbow flags on them and the like). It’s not clear that the law actually forbids it, but the lawsuit leans heavily on noting that the vagueness of H.B. 1557 leads to a chilling effect, particularly because it gives parents the power to sue and seek damages if any school district violates the ban.

And so Judge Walker’s observation that the IFA is “impermissibly vague” may end up being relevant to the ultimate fate of the Parental Rights in Education Bill. The courts have rightly taken a dim view of laws that restrict rights and invite punishment in ways where it’s not clear to the layperson what behavior violates the law.

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Sam Harris Offers Feeble ‘Clarification’ After Bizarre Comments About Trump

Sam Harris Offers Feeble ‘Clarification’ After Bizarre Comments About Trump

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News (emphasis ours),

Author Sam Harris said he supported the censorship of the Hunter Biden story despite acknowledging it was “a left-wing conspiracy to deny the presidency to Donald Trump,” but then later clarified that he didn’t say that, even though he did.

Charles Ommanney via Getty Images

Harris, who once found favor amongst some on the right for standing up against identity politics and Islamism, suffered a rather severe bout of Trump derangement syndrome around the 2016 election and hasn’t recovered since.

The public intellectual made the bizarre comments during an interview with the TRIGGERnometry podcast.

“Whatever the scope of what Joe Biden’s corruption is–we can just go down that rabbit hole endlessly and understand that he’s getting kickbacks from Hunter Biden’s deals in Ukraine or wherever else, or China–it is infinitesimal compared to the corruption we know Trump is involved in,” Harris told the hosts.

“It’s like a firefly to the sun…it doesn’t even stack up against Trump University,” he added. “Trump University, as a story, is worse than anything that could be in Hunter Biden’s laptop in my view.”

Harris then ludicrously suggested that ‘Trump University’ was a bigger scandal than a conspiracy to interfere in a democratic election.

The author argued that social media giants censoring the Hunter Biden laptop story weeks before the election was “a left-wing conspiracy to deny the presidency to Donald Trump,” which was “warranted” to help Joe Biden defeat Trump.

“Hunter Biden literally could have had the corpses of children in his basement (on his laptop),” said Harris. “I would not have cared.”

After he was roundly savaged on Twitter, Harris posted a bizarre ‘clarification’ that didn’t clarify anything.

“On the podcast, I was speaking narrowly about the wisdom and propriety of ignoring the Hunter Biden laptop story until after the election. I’ve always thought that this was a very hard call, ethically and journalistically,” tweeted Harris.

“But given what happened with the Anthony Weiner laptop in the previous election, I think it was probably the right call,” he added.

In reality, Harris didn’t say that the Hunter Biden laptop story should have been ignored, he said there was a “conspiracy” to abuse the power of Big Tech to censor it and that he was fine with that.

Respondents to Harris had a field day.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/19/2022 – 16:20

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Fed Hawks Hammered Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin This Week As J-Hole Looms

Fed Hawks Hammered Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin This Week As J-Hole Looms

Comments from Richmond Fed president Barkin today summed a week of hawkish prompts from the central bank that a pivot ain’t coming soon and there’s more pain to come (for the economy and the market):

“The Fed must curb inflation even if this causes a recession,” adding that The Fed “needs to raise rates into restrictive territory.”

All of which sent rate-cut expectations plunging on the week while rate-hike expectations remained high…

Source: Bloomberg

“The Fed would, in order to get inflation down to the 2% target, have to crush the economy,”  said Ann-Katrin Petersen, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute.

In order to bolster growth, the Fed will at some  point “accept to live with inflation. This dovish pivot is not likely in  the very near term, in contrast to what markets seem to be expecting  right now, but this dovish pivot may come in 2023,” she told Bloomberg.

The hawkish nudge finally hit the YOLO/MOMO crowd sending stocks reeling today after a big options expiration. Nasdaq and Small Caps were clubbed like a baby seal today (down over 2%) and all the US Majors ended the week lower (with The Dow the prettiest horse in the glue factory this time as growthy tech was hammered with rising rates)…

Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all reversed at their 200DMAs this week…

The S&P reverted back down to its 50% Fib retracement level…

Source: Bloomberg

And DO NOT forget our post suggesting cover on the back of Mike Hartnett’s top call

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks went from worst to almost first on the week after a big puke at the Monday open. Staples were the leaders while Materials the laggards….

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave stock-land, there’s this utter shitshow…

Did the YOLO-ers just shoot their final wad?

“Most Shorted’ Stocks tumbled hard this week as it appears the squeeze ammo has run out…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury Yields surged this week with the belly underperforming dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y spiked up to 3.00% – erasing all the price gains from the ECB/US-weak-data bond rally…

Source: Bloomberg

US 30Y yields rose back above China 30Y yields which dropped to 6 year lows: Traders might be betting that lower mortgage rates – led by expected cuts in loan prime rates – will push banks to buy more longer-dated bonds, wrote Qin Han, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities in a note.

Source: Bloomberg

The hawkish speak sent the dollar soaring with Bloomberg’s Dollar Index up a stunning 2% on the week – its biggest weekly spike since April 2020. Notice that the dollar broke back above the FOMC day selloff highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were monkeyhammered lower as the week progressed with ETH and BTC down around 12%…

Source: Bloomberg

EU NatGas soared to a new record high (and US Natgas closed at its highest since 2008)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold tumbled back below $1800 this week as the hawkish hammering spread to commods…

And oil ended the week lower – despite some choppy trading – with WTI holding around $90…

Finally, we note that we’ve seen these kind of bounces before…

Source: Bloomberg

…and it didn’t end well.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/19/2022 – 16:01

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Young Bankers Confused By Having Free Time As 2022 Wall Street Dealmaking Pales In Comparison To 2020 Peak

Young Bankers Confused By Having Free Time As 2022 Wall Street Dealmaking Pales In Comparison To 2020 Peak

We’ve written extensively about how junior bankers have been coddled over the last few years, ever since a couple of young Goldman Sachs bankers produced a PowerPoint presentation during the pandemic complaining about working conditions. The presentation became a PR nightmare for banks, who tripped all over themselves to try and show the world that they were taking care of their respective, newly-woke junior banker bases. 

Since then, a lack of talent on Wall Street has led investment banks (and some lawyers) to also offer additional incentives and perks to try and retain and recruit talent.

But all of a sudden, some younger bankers are getting more free time off from an industry with a reputation of long hours when business is booming – and it has some junior bankers worried about what it means. 

“Finance-industry rookies are relishing their freedom while some worry about what it means for their future careers,” a new report from Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance says. 

Matt Walicki, a 24-year-old banking analyst at Mizuho Americas, told Bloomberg: “As you enter this period of market uncertainty, it can be a little unsettling” for work to fall off. He said compared to 2020, he “all the more grateful” to have time to play tennis or golf. 

“It’s a slower flow of deals than we’ve seen, and I think that’s shifted the nature of the work,” he added. 

Bloomberg even found a group of Citigroup analysts, casually dressed and “drinking beer at Greenwich Street Tavern on a recent Tuesday as a swarm of colleagues headed out from the bank tower across the street”. 

That same week, some junior employees were able to leave before 3PM. Senior executives at the company reportedly see it as a “good sign” for their work-life balance – something that used to be scoffed at on Wall Street, especially for neophytes. 

First-year analyst at Solomon Partners Joanna Levy commented that she hasn’t had a “ton of downtime,” but that things are “maybe a bit slower than the fall.”

Recall we wrote just weeks ago that Wells Fargo was the latest to offer junior bankers a pay bump, this time to $110,000. 

Recall, we wrote earlier this year that HSBC was set to double its bonuses for junior bankers in order to try and slow defections. It marked a change for the bank, which paid “less than most rivals a year ago after cutting the bonus pool at its global banking and markets division by 15%,” Bloomberg reported at the time.

And the competition in the space is real, with investment banks jostling back-and-forth to stay competitive with pay and retain talent for several years now.

At the beginning of 2022, we reported that JP Morgan had raised its junior bankers’ pay for the second time in a 12 month period. 1st-year investment banking analysts are now set to make $110,000, up from $100,000, The Business Times reported last month. 2nd-year analyst pay will also jump up to $125,000 and 3rd-year pay will rise to $135,000. 

Citigroup also said it was increasing pay after a blockbuster year in 2021, moving base salaries for junior bankers up to $110,000. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/19/2022 – 15:45

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For Japan’s Sake, Drink

For Japan’s Sake, Drink

By Stefan Koopman of Rabobank

For Japan’s Sake

Some remarkable news from Japan caught our attention yesterday. Where governments usually raise excise duties and spend millions on campaigns to turn people away from alcohol, Japan is going the opposite way and now encourages its use, especially among young adults (and potential life-long consumers..?). Alcohol consumption has been in a downward trend since the 1990s, as the population ages and has become more conscious of its adverse effects, while sales in the izakayas are under additional pressure due to the pandemic. In this summer’s campaign – dubbed Sake Viva! – the government calls on its citizens to come up with ideas to revitalize the liquor industry and to get consumption going again. It doesn’t matter whether it’s sake, shochu, whisky, beer or wine, as long as its Japanese, raises taxes and helps to get yens circulating in the domestic economy. So, here’s my idea, at least for when tourism gets going again: “For Japan’s sake, drink!

Let’s switch to a country that doesn’t need as much encouragement. This morning, the UK’s GfK consumer confidence fell to a new record low of -44 in August, with all sub-categories falling. Readings of -30 or lower generally portend a recession. Consumers are still slightly less pessimistic about their own finances than about the general economic outlook, which would suggest that actual spending holds up a bit better than feared, but at these depths this distinction seems to be a little academical. Retail sales were up +0.3% m/m in July, but -1.2% on a rolling 3m/3m basis and on a steady downward trend since the summer of last year. Sales volumes are up just 0.4% compared to three years ago and likely to move lower than higher as record inflation erodes buying power, a consequence of events that are far beyond the control of ordinary people. Unfortunately, for some, that is more than enough reason for a drink or two…

The new prime minister will face a distressed electorate, which senses a decline in institutional trust, sees a sluggish response to the cost of living crisis, and knows of the structural prospect of a trade war with the EU. The government could have been more clear on what support will be in place before energy bills skyrocket in October, could have acknowledged that now is not the time to engage in trade conflicts with Europe, and should have sought ways in how to restore the social contract between the government and its citizens. None of that is happening.

Yes, Liz Truss says she will slash taxes and consider targeted cost-of-living payments if she becomes Prime Minister, but the ugly combination of stagnating economic growth and high inflation will significantly reduce the GBP 30bn worth of fiscal headroom she still claims to have. She could of course always opt for an emergency budget, which would effectively side-line the Office for Budget Responsibility and allow her to rely on a set of economic forecasts that are six months out of date rather than an updated one, but that is a brazen move that would further erode the institutional framework responsible for the UK economy.

If demand stimulus in the face of sky-high inflation is indeed her immediate answer to a crisis, i.e., if she really wants to channel her inner Erdoganomist, why not urge the Bank of England to cut rates too? After all, that’s what Turkey’s central bank did yesterday: doubling down on a strategy that has failed over and over again. Despite inflation nearing a reported 80%, which is 16 times the ostensible target, the central bank still decided to reduce the policy rate by 100 bps to 13%. Once again, investors were reminded that a core plank of Erdonomics is that by making borrowing cheaper and by giving less money to bond holders via lower interest payments, inflation will slow down rather than push higher and higher.

To be fair, in macro and in markets, cause and effect are always convoluted and change direction more often than economists are willing to accept, but the CBRT clearly sets itself apart as the central bank that believes bringing inflation back towards a somewhat acceptable rate is no longer the policy target, let alone less than a year before the general election. It’s also again daring to blow away its remaining FX reserves in order to defend the value of the currency, something that is eventually bound to fail, as the UK itself knows all too well. In five-sixths of all daily observations since 1990, the lira was weaker against the dollar than it was in the year prior (… and, logically, stronger than it was next year). The pair currently trades at 18.1, up 0.8% from yesterday and up 112.4% from this time last year. Where will it be next year?

The dollar itself got a boost yesterday following some goldilocks data from the US and is again nearing parity with the euro. The Philly Fed jumped to 6.2 from -12.3. This is the highest in four months. It contrasts sharply with Monday’s miserable Empire Fed, reporting a rise in employment and a less pronounced weakening in new orders. Delivery times improved too, adding to a rapidly expanding list of evidence that supply chain constraints are easing relative to the current state of demand. Jobless claims were at 250k lower than expected too, defying fears of a too rapid cooling in the labor market. The Fed’s Kashkari, Bullard, George and Daly had speaking engagements yesterday: there wasn’t a single sign of any backing away from further rate hikes ahead.

On the other hand, US existing home sales fell to a two-year low of 4.81 million. With house prices still at or near their peak and mortgage rates having just spiked, housing affordability is under stress in most if not all Western economies. Fewer and fewer first time buyers qualify for the mortgage required for an averagely priced home, while other buyers have an incentive to wait for a correction. This is already leading to a rise in inventories of homes on the market, which suggests there is deceleration in price increases ahead of us. As such, housing markets continue to be weak spots, being the most responsive and vulnerable to this year’s tightening in financial conditions. House values are a key determinant of household balance sheets and do influence a broad set of discretionary spending decisions, even among households who don’t directly borrow against home equity to finance spending on reconstruction, remodelling or other big tickets. There are many good reasons to believe that housing cycles leads the business cycle, a continued spate of weak data on this front is a warning signal that requires close attention.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/19/2022 – 15:30

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Private Mortgage Lender Bust Begins As Loan Applications Crash

Private Mortgage Lender Bust Begins As Loan Applications Crash

The US mortgage industry could be on the cusp of a bust cycle as the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hikes in decades have sent mortgage loan application volume crashing. 

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 3.27% at the start of the year to as high as 6% in mid-June, sparking what we’ve been warning readers about is an affordability crisis where demand for homes has evaporated

Plunging demand for homes can be seen in the pace of mortgage application volumes, falling to levels not seen since the lows of the Dot-Com bubble implosion of 2000. 

This means that the rate shock has abruptly curbed the pipeline of new loans and refinancings for mortgage companies — where the poorly capitalized ones will fail first. 

Bloomberg noted there would be “no systemic meltdown” as banks have a much less reduced exposure to mortgages post-GFC. However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be fireworks as private lenders begin to lay off workers and, in some cases, fail. 

The “nonbanks” or independent lenders “are poorly capitalized,” said Nancy Wallace, chair of the real estate group at Berkeley Haas, the business school at the University of California, Berkeley. She said when mortgage applications “tank,” many of these lenders will be in “trouble.” 

At least this time, there are more nonbank lenders in the mortgage industry than pre-GFC. LendingPatterns said two-thirds of the top 20 lenders were nonbank, compared with about a third in 2004. Inside Mortgage Finance said banks have reduced their market share from about half in 2016 to a third. 

The epicenter of the implosion will be independent lenders, such as First Guaranty, who recently filed for bankruptcy after it held onto loans it made that quickly dropped in value earlier this year while trying to package them up to sell to investors.

Court papers revealed lending volume dropped when mortgage rates spiked earlier this year. The company said it could no longer bundle new loans as its pipeline dried up. First Guaranty owes Flagstar Bank and Customers Bank approximately $418 million. It also cut hundreds of employees. 

Another independent lender, LoanDepot, laid off 4,800 jobs in July as its pipeline of mortgage volume dried up. 

LoanDepot CEO Frank Martell released a statement in July: 

“After two years of record-breaking volumes, the market has contracted sharply and abruptly in 2022 … We are taking decisive action to meet this challenge head-on.”

LoanDepot’s equity has crashed more than 75% since going public in February 2021. The question remains if the lender will follow the path of First Guaranty. 

Long Island-based Sprout Mortgage is another private lender that fired its employees last month and announced it was closing up shop. 

Many private lenders can no longer find enough new loans to bundle or get new credit lines to continue operating, and unlike banks, these shops have very limited mobility when it comes to tapping emergency financing lines. 

“Part of the reason these companies are distressed is because the loans can’t go to the GSEs for funding.

“The options for funding are more limited which is especially painful when financial conditions are tightening,” said David Goodson, head of securitized credit at Voya Investment Management. 

Lenders usually try to make loans worth 102 cents on the dollar to cover upfront costs, though some are taking substantial losses and can’t sell them for around 85 cents. 

It appears the Fed-induced rate shock is the culprit behind the implosion of the private lenders. We assume more failures are ahead. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/19/2022 – 15:00

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Fact-Checking Industry Continues Providing Cover for White House’s Unbelievable IRS Claims


Joe Manchin, Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which among its Democratic-favored grab-bag of provisions included $80 billion in additional funding over the next 10 years for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), a 53 percent increase over the agency’s projected budgetary baseline.

Because everyone pays taxes, and because the bill’s passage depended heavily on projections that a beefed-up IRS would locate and extract an additional $204 billion in currently unpaid revenue, many citizens became nervous about what the law would mean for them. To dampen the disquiet, the White House and Treasury Department in the run-up to the bill’s final passage made escalatory claims—untethered to any statutory language and in contradiction to projections by both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT)—that the historic enforcement increase would not increase the audit rates on American households earning less than $400,000 per year. Opposing Republicans, meanwhile, have been making frequently hyperbolic critiques about the IRA funding “87,000 new IRS agents” and so forth.

Faced with the choice of those two broad categories to scrutinize—the claims of the executive branch in justifying a major enforcement change with the potential to affect all adult residents of the United States, and the criticism thereof by losing Republican legislators—the fact-checking industry continues, even after the signing of the bill, to nitpick the ankle-biters instead of challenging Goliath.

IRS Will Target ‘High-Income’ Tax Evaders with New Funding, Contrary to Social Media Posts,” went the headline Thursday at The Annenberg Public Policy Center’s FactCheck.org. The Poynter Institute’s PolitiFact on Wednesday contributed “Rick Scott overstates potential hiring surge at the IRS,” then followed up Thursday with “Video misleads about size of IRS, audits and armed agents.” Agence France-Presse’s Fact Check department Tuesday concluded that “Claims of ‘IRS army’ targeting US taxpayers are misleading,” then came back Thursday with “US congressman misrepresents photos purported to show armed IRS recruits.” Reuters on Wednesday offered up a twofer—”Fact Check-The IRS is not hiring thousands of armed agents, job ads show opening for specialized unit,” and “Fact Check-Social media posts miss key context on Inflation Reduction Act’s provision for thousands of new IRS agents“—then on Friday posted: “Republicans call it an ‘army’ but IRS hires will replace retirees, do IT, says Treasury.”

All of these (and the many other similar) mainstream media fact-checking exercises have as their starting point not the contested promises made by the victorious White House and other key promoters of the IRA but soundbites from the types of conservatives that mainstream journalists find annoying. Consumers seeking to double-check the president were mostly stuck with such explicitly conservative outlets as Breitbart News.

This divide, and journalistic interest skewed more toward the excesses of rhetoric than the exercise of power, is reminiscent of the way professional fact-checking comported itself before, during, and immediately after Barack Obama’s signature Affordable Care Act. Back then, even though the then-president was routinely lying in easily discoverable ways about his health insurance overhaul, fact-checkers were obsessed with backbencher opposition to the point where PolitiFact awarded its “Lie of the Year” to Sarah Palin, who at the time held no elected office.

PolitiFact did belatedly catch up with the president’s fibs in 2013, at which point there was a moment of mild journalism-industry self-reflection. Though, as I warned at the time, the mea culpas did not contain nearly enough self-awareness about how Democratic politicians and operatives, coming as they do from largely the same class of people as national journalists, have been consciously and successfully working the refs.

So it has been this week. It’s not just that the fact-checkers have been trawling for conservative B.S.—which, when identified accurately, is always legitimate to call out. It’s that they’re holding up as debunkatory evidence assertions by the White House that either have no statutory force or are themselves misleading, even false.

For instance, FactCheck.org‘s piece claims right at the outset that “most new hires” by the IRS “will provide customer services,” then expands on the point further down:

“The majority of hires made with these resources fill positions of the 50,000 IRS employees who are on the verge of retirement. Of the net new hires, the majority are hired to improve customer services – from upgrading IT to answering phone calls,” the Treasury Department spokesperson said.

This is not checking a fact, this is reproducing speculative spin that makes no sense when you look at where the additional IRS spending has been statutorily allocated.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the Inflation Reduction Act directs the $80 billion in additional IRS funding to the following four enumerated divisions: “enforcement” ($45.7 billion), “operations support” ($25.3 billion), “business systems modernization” ($4.7 billion), and “taxpayer services” ($3.2 billion):

The Treasury Department spokesperson would have us believe that 50.01 percent of newly created positions funded by this $80 billion injection will work in the divisions receiving just 10 percent of the money. That is just not credible, let alone a credible basis for debunking someone else’s fact.

Other administration assertions taken as baseline fact by many fact-checkers include that 52,000 IRS employees—nearly two-thirds of the agency’s total work force—will retire in just the next five years; and that the “tax gap,” or amount of annual unpaid taxes owed, is “at least $381 billion” (Snopes), or $585 billion (PolitiFact), or $600 billion (Reuters).

Not only have several of the fact-checking outlets taken questionable executive-branch claims at face value, but they’ve also let Democratic appointees heap adjectival derision at the dishonorable opposition. Treasury Department tax policy specialist Natasha Sarin, who’s been busy making the rounds, called the 87,000-new-agents claim “deeply dangerous nonsense—and false,” in a Reuters fact-check.

“The speed and voracity with which [Republicans] are coming at this is really a testament to how important these resources are going to be,” Sarin added, “because there are many wealthy tax evaders that stand to lose a lot.” As a furtherance in the checking of a fact, this quote provides zero—perhaps even negative—value. It does, however, provide useful color commentary in the service of clowning conservatives.

Many Americans do not enjoy being reminded of the fact that a country that began as a tax revolt against England now has a federal agency with some 81,600 employees dedicated to confiscating the maximum amount of income from its citizens allowable by (very confusing) law, under threat of potential imprisonment. The Inflation Reduction Act, in greatly expanding that power—a full 69 percent of the funding increase is dedicated unambiguously to “enforcement”—has surfaced that unpleasant reality in a way that could be politically potent.

It is understandable, if unseemly, that an executive branch funded by those very same tax dollars would be busy minimizing every hard-to-swallow detail of its historic IRS expansion. The Democrats who lead the government have to run for reelection, after all. Journalists have no such excuse, though they may soon learn that fact-checks showing there are “only” 2,100 IRS agents who carry firearms are not as reassuring to readers as they are to reporters.

The post Fact-Checking Industry Continues Providing Cover for White House's Unbelievable IRS Claims appeared first on Reason.com.

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Incompetent People Are Often Too Incompetent To Realize Just How Incompetent They Are, Says New Study


overconfidentmandreamstime

“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge,” wrote Charles Darwin in The Descent of Man (1871). Experimental findings reported in 1999 by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger bolstered Darwin’s insight. They tested people on their knowledge of grammar and logic and found that many of the people who did badly on the tests rated their performance as being well above average. On the other hand, those who did well tended to underestimate how well they had done.

The now eponymous Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people “wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area. This tends to occur because a lack of self-awareness prevents them from accurately assessing their own skills.” In other words, incompetent people are often too incompetent to realize just how incompetent they are. (It should be noted, however, that some now suggest that the Dunning-Kruger effect is not a real phenomenon but arises from how the researchers parsed their data.)

In any case, most of us do suffer from various forms of cognitive overconfidence such as the “illusion of explanatory depth.” We actually think we know how many of the mechanisms and processes we interact with every day actually operate. But when we are asked to draw or write down how a zipper, a bicycle, or a flush toilet works, we find that we don’t know as much as we initially thought we did. And let’s not get started on the massive problem of confirmation bias when it comes to politically salient issues.

Now, a new study in Science Advances adds to these findings and reports that “knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues.” In the study, the researchers first asked 3,200 participants through online surveys how much they think they know (subjective knowledge) using a 7-point scale about each of seven scientific topics ranging from “vague understanding” to “thorough understanding.” To prime participants, the researchers provide a complex explanation of how a crossbow is constructed and works (level 7 knowledge) compared to the case where a person can identify a crossbow and know that it shoots arrows (level 1 knowledge). Then each participant was randomly assigned to answer a question about their degree of acceptance of one of the seven different issues that enjoy substantial scientific consensus.

The issues probed by the researchers were “the safety of GM foods, the validity of anthropogenic climate change, the benefits of vaccination outweighing its risks, the validity of evolution as an explanation of human origins, the validity of the Big Bang theory as an explanation for the origin of the universe, the lack of efficacy of homeopathic medicine, and the importance of nuclear power as an energy source.” For each issue, participants were asked to indicate their level of opposition ranging from not at all (level 1) to extreme (level 7).

To figure out how much participants might know about scientific findings in general, researchers also tested them on a 7-point objective-knowledge scale ranging from definitely false, not sure, to definitely true for 34 different purportedly factual claims about the world. The researchers divvied up the 34 statements into clusters relevant to the topics of evolution, the Big Bang, nuclear power, genetically modified foods, vaccination and homeopathy, and climate change. Among the statements participants were asked to answer true or false were assertions like the center of the earth is very hot; all radioactivity is man-made; ordinary tomatoes do not have genes, whereas genetically modified tomatoes do; the earliest humans lived at the same time as the dinosaurs; and nitrogen makes up most of the earth’s atmosphere.

The researchers also asked participants about their political and religious views.

The researchers then compared the strength of the participants’ claims to subjective knowledge, that is, how sure they were that the scientific consensus of the seven topics was right or wrong, with the depth of their objective knowledge as revealed by their answers to the 34 purportedly factual claims.

In general, the researchers found “that the people who disagree most with the scientific consensus know less about the relevant issues, but they think they know more.” Interestingly, as the above chart shows, study participants tended to have a bit less confidence in their views with respect to the highly polarized issue of climate change and the origins of the universe and species.

The researchers do acknowledge that “conforming to the consensus is not always recommended.” They cite the opposition of Plato and Galileo Galilei to philosophical and scientific consensuses of their eras as examples. They might well have noted the pernicious consensus in favor of eugenics that prevailed in the early 20th century.

Nevertheless, the researchers conclude that “if opposition to the consensus is driven by an illusion of understanding and if that opposition leads to actions that are dangerous to those who do not share in the illusion, then it is incumbent on society to try to change minds in favor of the scientific consensus.” Dangerous actions like trying to ban more productive and environmentally friendly crop varieties, refusing vaccination against dangerous infectious diseases, or rejecting a safe technology for generating electric power.

The post Incompetent People Are Often Too Incompetent To Realize Just How Incompetent They Are, Says New Study appeared first on Reason.com.

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