Bond Portfolios In Var Shock Get BOE Help, But There’s Plenty More Action To Come

Bond Portfolios In Var Shock Get BOE Help, But There’s Plenty More Action To Come

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and commentator

The Bank of England did what it had to. But there’s plenty more action to come.

Yields spiraling out of control is bad enough, but when they skyrocket some 150 basis points in the space of just a week, that represents a value-at-risk shock of epic proportions. It hurts particularly if it happens at the long end, where pension funds and insurers are active. Of course, immunizing a bond portfolio is just par for the course for liability-driven investors, but when rate volatility is what it is these days, it can at best cushion the variance in the realized rate of return — not insulate your portfolio completely from the maelstorm.

Of course, the BOE’s purchases of bonds mean that fiscal and monetary policy, taken together, haven’t been this incongruous in a long, long time — a quantitative conundrum if you like. In any case, the backstop raises several questions. Among them:

Are we past the worst?

  • To the extent that the BOE’s bond purchases obviate the need for liability-driven investors to post additional collateral — a step that would force many of them to sell other parts of their portfolio and entrench a vicious market circle — the move certainly does the job of an doctor at an A&E. But what happens after Oct. 14, when the purchases are supposed to end? A whole lot depends on how Downing Street will respond between now and then. Will the chancellor, for instance, roll back some of the measures and heed the advice of the International Monetary Fund?

 
What does this mean for rate hikes?

  • Investors fully expect the BOE — already way behind the curve — to see the obvious and raise rates before its scheduled meeting. November 3 is just an arbitrary policy date, and there is hardly anything sacrosanct about it. Central banks need to change interest rates when they need to, not when the calendar says it’s time. Front-end yields are some 200 basis points higher than the policy rate, which sets a minimum hurdle for the BOE to clear.
  • It’s important to remember that the BOE’s backstop just papers over the cracks, but doesn’t undo any of the damage from a) a massive inflation problem that wasn’t addressed adequately before the present crisis brewed; and b) the still-considerable increase in yields since before the episode.

What happens to the pound now?

  • We aren’t done with the declines — considerable as they have been this year — in sterling. The pound is likely to hurtle toward parity as noted here in the coming months so long as the Fed keeps going, exposing inflation-adjusted yield differentials against other economies.
  • Against that backdrop, expect the pound to weaken against not just the dollar, but also against the euro. The euro is already trading about 1% higher against sterling in my model, a sign of speculation building in the cross.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/29/2022 – 07:31

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“Liberal, Female and Minority: America’s New Gun Owners Aren’t Who You Think”

From CNN (David Culver & Jason Kravarik) Tuesday:

Several times a week you can hear gunfire echoing from Brandi Joseph’s scenic Southern California property. A licensed firearms instructor and dealer, Joseph decided to open Fortune Firearms in December to serve a growing and rapidly changing clientele.

“There is a huge uptick in female owners,” Joseph said. “Women are getting trained; women are carrying … liberal and conservative.”

Proof of that change pulled up Joseph’s long, dusty driveway in the San Jacinto Valley just before 10 a.m. for a Saturday social, of sorts. A group of seven African American women stepped out of their cars seemingly eager to start their first firearms training session….

If you want more data about gun owner demographics, you can see the study noted here, though it doesn’t discuss whether and to what extent those demographics have been changing. (The overall numbers still show more gun ownership by whites and American Indians than by blacks and Hispanics, though not by much, and considerably more than by Asians.) Still, this struck me as an interesting anecdotal discussion, especially noteworthy because it’s not something I’d normally expect from CNN.

The post "Liberal, Female and Minority: America's New Gun Owners Aren't Who You Think" appeared first on Reason.com.

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“Liberal, Female and Minority: America’s New Gun Owners Aren’t Who You Think”

From CNN (David Culver & Jason Kravarik) Tuesday:

Several times a week you can hear gunfire echoing from Brandi Joseph’s scenic Southern California property. A licensed firearms instructor and dealer, Joseph decided to open Fortune Firearms in December to serve a growing and rapidly changing clientele.

“There is a huge uptick in female owners,” Joseph said. “Women are getting trained; women are carrying … liberal and conservative.”

Proof of that change pulled up Joseph’s long, dusty driveway in the San Jacinto Valley just before 10 a.m. for a Saturday social, of sorts. A group of seven African American women stepped out of their cars seemingly eager to start their first firearms training session….

If you want more data about gun owner demographics, you can see the study noted here, though it doesn’t discuss whether and to what extent those demographics have been changing. (The overall numbers still show more gun ownership by whites and American Indians than by blacks and Hispanics, though not by much, and considerably more than by Asians.) Still, this struck me as an interesting anecdotal discussion, especially noteworthy because it’s not something I’d normally expect from CNN.

The post "Liberal, Female and Minority: America's New Gun Owners Aren't Who You Think" appeared first on Reason.com.

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Supply Chain Effects From Hurricane Ian Could Linger For Weeks

Supply Chain Effects From Hurricane Ian Could Linger For Weeks

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

The risk to manufacturing, agriculture and distribution sectors in Florida is rapidly intensifying as powerful Hurricane Ian takes aim at the state’s southwest coast. But the economic ripple effects are likely to be felt well beyond the storm zone.

Experts are predicting severe disruption to supply chains from flooding, power outages and wind damage that could stall factory and farm production, as well as freight movement through major port, airport, highway and rail nodes. The Tampa-to-Orlando corridor is chockablock full of huge retail and e-commerce distribution centers.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Noru is similarly upsetting supply chains in Southeast Asia as it barrels across the South China Sea toward Vietnam.

Ian is expected to make landfall in western Florida on Wednesday, according to forecasters. Major flooding from the storm surge is expected for communities along Tampa Bay.

The storm could impact up to 2,800 manufacturing firms in aerospace, automotive components, heavy machinery, chemicals and plastics, as well as about 7,000 health care producers in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, diagnostics and other fields, Everstream Analytics, which uses predictive software to help customers like Apple and Schneider Electric manage supply chain risk, said in a weather update Tuesday.

“Even just a couple hours of downtime at a major production site or industrial zone means additional time making repairs, spinning up machinery and restarting work,” said analyst Anthony Yanchuk. 

According to Resilinc, which maps customers’ supply chains and provides early warning of potential disruptions, Ian’s impact could be much wider and long-lasting.

More than 4,500 factories, warehouses and distribution centers, which produce or distribute about 74,000 parts for everything from electronics to chemicals, are in the projected storm zone, Resilinc CEO Bindya Vakil told FreightWaves.

Nearly $20 billion in revenue is at risk just for companies Resilinc monitors.

Companies in other states could face shortages of truck capacity in the coming days if many motor carriers shift resources to provide logistics support for recovery efforts through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, humanitarian aid groups or state governments, said Vakil.

It will take an average of nine weeks for business to recover to pre-Ian run rates, based on historical experience with similar weather events and what suppliers in Resilinc’s network are communicating, she said in the interview. Production and shipping ability could be hindered by damage to buildings, equipment or inventory. The length of downtime will be influenced by whether businesses have alternative sites and redundant manufacturing.

“A lot of times people sort of know where the warehouse that they place their orders is, but they don’t know where the factories are actually located, and how the different factories connect into their supply chain,” Vakil said. “That’s, that’s really important because if companies are not monitoring their suppliers that are in Florida right now, then three weeks later, they might have a critical supplier who says, ‘Hey, remember that hurricane that actually knocked down power and my factory went down for two weeks and now I can’t ship you something.’

“When you have companies who know that they have factories in the region, they are picking up the phone right now, before the hurricane even made landfall, they know exactly how much inventory they have, where it is, and they can start to control and allocate in a right way and and control the usage. But if you’re not aware, then you’re reacting three weeks from now. And that’s too late,” Resilinc’s CEO said.

Everstream Analytics said the sector facing the biggest harm is agriculture. The storm could cause extensive crop damage ahead of the harvest season, which starts in November. Concerns have increased as the storm’s track shifted further south in the last 24 hours toward more orange-producing counties.

South Florida produces 70% of U.S. citrus. High winds could blow down oranges before they are picked and fields could be flooded. As Ian moves north, it could also degrade cotton crops and soybean and tobacco production in the Southeast, according to Everstream.

Truckers face the possibility of less business if there are reduced crop volumes to move, and consumers could see higher produce prices, exacerbating already high inflation.

Freight transport constraints

Power outages and high water are expected to paralyze traffic on major highways, especially Interstates 4 and 75, the Everstream forecasters said.

Expedited trucking company Sterling Transportation said its shippers should expect delays due to facility closures and that it may hold cargo at origin instead of sending it into the storm area until conditions are considered safe.

Aftermath of Hurricane Laura in 2020

Vessel traffic is already being halted. Port Tampa Bay and Seaport Manatee, which handles large quantities of steel, fertilizer and other noncontainerized goods, both closed Tuesday so workers could secure equipment and vessels could get out to sea. Port Tampa Bay specializes in imports of food and beverage products, as well as fuel. 

Port Miami’s two main container terminals are closed on Wednesday and Port Everglades, in Fort Lauderdale, has stopped accepting inbound traffic on the expectation of high winds from Ian as it passes to the west. And the ports of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, have issued advisories for tropical force winds later this week. Depending on Ian’s path and strength, they could be forced to shut down too.

All four ports handle large amounts of container traffic. 

Freight railroads haven’t revised their schedules yet but are monitoring conditions.

As for air cargo, Tampa International Airport shut down at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday and Orlando International Airport is shutting down at 10:30 A.M. Wednesday.

Delta Airlines said no cargo can be picked up or delivered Tuesday until after midnight at many airports in Florida, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa and Orlando. The service stoppage is likely to change Wednesday as the storm’s path becomes clearer.

Miami International Airport said it is open, but some flights are delayed or canceled due to the weather. Worldwide Logistics Group said in a customer notice that local drayage drivers in Miami  are considering adding 48 hours to current cut off windows for receiving freight due to expected delays from weather and heavy traffic

Shippers with global supply chains are also closely tracking Typhoon Noru, which has strengthened and is headed toward central Vietnam after slamming through the Philippines. Everstream Analytics is warning of major disruptions to industries such as transportation and agriculture, with the key logistics hub of Da Nang expected to take a direct hit. Heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides are expected.

Vietnam closed airports and hundreds of flights were canceled Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/29/2022 – 07:20

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Another Nord Stream Leak Detected, Swedish Coastguard Says

Another Nord Stream Leak Detected, Swedish Coastguard Says

Sweden’s coastguard confirmed a new leak was discovered on the damaged Nord Stream pipeline system in the Baltic Sea on Thursday, according to Reuters. Add this to the three other leaks for a grand total of four that have been spewing natural gas into the water since Monday. 

“Two of these four are in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone,” coast guard spokesperson Jenny Larsson told Svenska Dagbladet newspaper. He said the other two are situated in the Danish exclusive economic zone. 

While neither NS1 nor NS2 was operational during the suspected undersea explosions earlier this week, they were filled with NatGas to Germany, with Denmark estimating the leaks would dissipate by Sunday. 

There are two massive gas bubbles on the surface of the Baltic above the damaged pipelines in Sweden’s economic zone. One gas bubble measures a staggering 2,950 feet in diameter, while the other is about 600 feet. 

Several EU heads have called the incident “deliberate” and “sabotage,” with Finland stating that only a state actor was capable of the pipeline attack. 

Reuters quoted Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday, saying attacks against EU critical infrastructure would be met with a determined response. He called the acts “sabotage. “

“All currently available information indicates that this is the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage.

“We, as Allies, have committed to prepare for, deter and defend against the coercive use of energy and other hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors. Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response,” the statement continued. 

The Baltic region is getting more intense by the day as Norway, now Europe’s top natural gas supplier (recently displaced Russia), increased security at energy infrastructure sites, land terminals, and platforms on the Norwegian continental shelf. There were reports of mysterious drones buzzing oil rigs

The UN Security Council will meet Friday at Russia’s request to review the damage to NS1 and NS2. Russia’s US embassy asked for the meeting as it “insists on the need for a comprehensive and objective examination of the circumstances of the unprecedented attacks on Russian pipelines.”

Reuters said the embassy commented on its Telegram channel that the US attempts to “squeeze out” Russian oil firms from the global energy market through “non-market methods and sanctions.” 

The Russian prosecutor’s office told Interfax the Nord Stream incident is being investigated as an “international terrorism” probe.

For now, NS1 appears as if it won’t be operational anytime soon (NS2 was never operational though filled with gas). Before this winter and the reduction in NS1 capacity, the EU received about 40% of its NatGas via pipelines from Russia, a figure that Bloomberg now has around 9%. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/29/2022 – 06:58

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Loonshots And Collapse

Loonshots And Collapse

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The momentum of franchise success and centralization of power are fatal…

Loonshots are like moonshots, only crazier and trickier to commercialize. Author Safi Bahcall titled his book on how to nurture change-the-world innovations Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries.

But as Bahcall persuasively argues, loonshot innovations aren’t enough. You also need to nurture franchises that commercialize the innovations into products and services that pay the bills and fund the search for loonshot.

Bahcall identifies two kinds of loonshotsproduct and system. One of his examples: the 747 Jumbojet was a product innovation, the SABRE airline reservation software was a system innovation. Both are essential.

The book has much to say about structuring organizations–corporations and agencies–to encourage the fragile emergence of loonshots and commercialize them into change-the-world products and services. Organizations that excel at fostering innovations often fail to capitalize on their discoveries, and Bahcall identifies two sources of this failure: the supreme leader who leads the organization astray with hubristic self-confidence, and the organization lacking managers with the means to push the innovation into production / adoption.

Near the end of the book, Bahcall explores a topic that has engaged historians for decades: why didn’t China capitalize on its vast trove of change-the-world innovations? Why didn’t China leverage its monumental technological advantages from 1500 to 1800 to dominate the world?

This has long been of interest to me, and I found the book The Man Who Loved China: The Fantastic Story of the Eccentric Scientist Who Unlocked the Mysteries of the Middle Kingdom helpful in providing context. It’s the story of Joseph Needham and Lu Gwei-djen’s assembly of the multi-volume Science and Civilisation in China.

Setting aside the many specifics of China’s culture and history, we can identify general principles for this systemic failure to capitalize on innovation within organizations. These principles are scale-invariant, meaning they operate at the level of small enterprises, corporations and nations.

When the organization’s franchises are successful, there’s little selective pressure to gamble on innovations. Scaling innovations up (i.e. commercializing to ubiquity) is tricky and failures are the norm. Taking chances on new ideas and products is risky. As the Loonshots book explains, there are false start failures where the initial product is tossed aside as a failure but the problems were fixable.

When the franchise of an empire or movie studio is running smoothly, the risks of investing in loonshots are daunting. The inevitable failures will not only hurt the bottom line, sucking up capital, they are risky for managers promoting the innovations.

Even worse, the innovation might morph into a threat to the core franchise and thus the organization’s dominance and leaders. Some folks in the lab invent digital cameras while the franchise’s dominance and revenues are based on selling film–hmm, what to do? How about burying the innovation as needlessly risky?

The greater the centralization, the stronger the risk aversion and the greater the odds of the supreme leader making a catastrophic error of judgement. As the supreme leader moves from success to success, critics are dismissed as naysayers and the inner circle fears being cashiered / sent to Siberia, so over time the supreme leader is surrounded by sycophants and toadies who serve their own ambitions by praising the supreme leader’s every move and elevated self-glorification.

In this self-reinforcing feedback loop, the decay of the core franchise is rationalized, ignored or discounted. Bad news is unwelcome, and anyone who gives voice to the news risks elimination from the leadership pool. All the system incentives favor downplaying the decay of the franchise or cloaking it with massaged statistics.

In this sealed echo-chamber, the supreme leader coasts along, confident everything is peachy while the empire, army, trade and the currency all slide toward collapse. The worse it gets, the greater the danger for those who dare to reveal the true measure of the decline.

Better to game the numbers and announce you met your quota / sales number.

In other words, the momentum of franchise success and centralization of power are fatal. When you’re making steady profits from selling typewriters, why invest in some crazy homebrew computer thingy that might sink the company if it fails and kill typewriter sales if it takes off? Since our division lives and dies on typewriter sales, who is dumb enough to support some innovation that has the potential to destroy everything we’ve built and everything that enables our success?

And what organizations dominate the planet? Hyper-centralized franchises, states and corporations alike. The selective pressure favors protecting the franchise from innovation, because innovation could upset the entire apple cart. So centralized organizations only support innovations that increase the power of centralized authority.

But that’s not how innovation works. As the franchise decays and the supreme leaders start believing their own PR and making catastrophically misguided decisions in an echo-chamber of cheering toadies, the whole system slips into a non-linear dynamic that ends in a dramatic phase change, the collapse of the franchise and all those who clung to it as no-risk and permanent.

Stifle decentralization and dissent and you stifle innovation. With potentially threatening loonshots safely buried, the system has only one pathway: decay and collapse.

*  *  *

My new book is now available at a 20% discount ($7.95 ebook) 15% discount ($17 print) this week: Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/29/2022 – 06:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/CBRwoWX Tyler Durden

American Elections Are a Mess, and They Always Have Been


coverfeature

It was a presidential election unlike any before.

During the campaign, one candidate was accused of using his political connections for personal enrichment. His opponent, in turn, stood accused of being mentally unfit for office. Allegations of voter fraud, intimidation, and attempted disenfranchisement flew in both directions—and only got worse after the election did not immediately provide a clear winner.

The crucial electoral votes in four states were disputed by the losing candidate, and his supporters pushed a wild plan to submit alternate slates of electors to Congress. There were even calls for impromptu militias to march on Washington. Finally, weeks after the election, Congress settled the dispute and declared a winner, but the inauguration took place under unusual circumstances due to fears of more violence.

Watching those chaotic events unfold, observers surely couldn’t help but wonder whether the American experiment was in peril. Could the country survive another election like this, or was it a sign of dissolution—or even another civil war?

Nearly 150 years later, the union endures.

Oh, you thought I was describing the tumultuous events of the 2020 presidential election? The parallels are there, of course: the accusations of bad faith, the threats of mob violence, the resolution by lawmakers under the Capitol dome. And the core of the fight, then as now, was whether the election had, in effect, been rigged by shadowy forces defying the will of the people.

The election of 1876 culminated with Rutherford B. Hayes inaugurated as America’s 19th president, despite having lost the popular vote and initially appearing to lose the electoral vote too. It probably remains the most controversial presidential contest in American history.

That’s not to diminish the importance of the events that unfolded in the immediate aftermath of the most recent presidential election. The January 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump and the preceding attempts by Trump and his associates to cajole everyone from county election officials to the vice president himself into overturning the results of the election were deeply worrying signs for the nation’s health.

But the past provides context. It can also be a guide. A dysfunctional, chaotic election is not necessarily the end of democracy. If the history of American politics teaches us anything, it should be that parties and candidates will stop at almost nothing to achieve power, and not only on Election Day. Trump and his cronies are not the first maniacs to take a hammer to the American electoral system. They probably won’t be the last.

The project of democracy is always in flux. Maintaining and improving the system requires an unfiltered view of history and a healthy amount of skepticism. That means refusing to dismiss the rising threat of anti-democratic sentiment on the right, but it also means not letting the issue become a partisan tool for the left either. Preserving American democracy will require what it always has: common sense, good faith, policy reforms that target real problems rather than partisan obsessions, and a willingness to accept that there’s no such thing as a perfect democracy—only a functional, legitimate one.

Allegations as Old as America

The presidential battle of 1876 was not the first disputed election in American history, nor the first to be marred by allegations of voter fraud and other criminal behavior.

One of the most infamous electoral disputes involved two of the country’s Founding Fathers. New York’s 1792 gubernatorial election was a showdown that’s nearly unimaginable today. The Federalist Party nominated John Jay, the sitting chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, to oppose incumbent Gov. George Clinton. When the votes were counted the first time, Jay appeared to have won. But when the state legislature met to certify the results, votes from three counties were disqualified on technicalities and Clinton was declared the winner by a mere 108 votes. He was subsequently “denounced as a usurper,” historian John Stilwell Jenkins wrote in his 1846 account, History of Political Parties in the State of New York.

In fact, the early years of American history were full of electoral shenanigans. The 1800 presidential election culminated in a backroom deal that handed Thomas Jefferson the presidency in an election that had been thrown to the House of Representatives after Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied in the Electoral College. In 1824, Andrew Jackson won a clear plurality of the electoral and popular votes in an unusual four-way race, but the presidency was awarded to John Quincy Adams when the House once again had to settle things.

Both elections paved the way for changes intended to ensure that similar controversies did not pop up again. Following Jefferson’s victory, Congress and the states ratified the 12th Amendment, which changed how the Electoral College operates. And after the Jackson-Adams controversy, the political system adapted. A new party system emerged, with Jackson’s faction forming the basis of what is today the Democratic Party. Rather than regional candidates, party-specific nominating processes began to control who would run for president. The influence of cohesive political parties created a new challenge for the democratic system. It was no longer just personalities but entire political machines trying to maximize leverage over election results.

They were not subtle. Gangs routinely intimidated rivals and stuffed ballot boxes. Potential voters were bribed with whiskey or food. Violence was common. In 1854, “Honest John” Kelly, an Irish Catholic and key figure in New York City’s Tammany Hall political machine, organized a gang of shipyard workers and firefighters to attack a polling place at the corner of Elizabeth Street and Grand Street. They destroyed ballots marked for Kelly’s opponent and ensured “Honest John’s” narrow win in his first election to Congress.

By 1876, those tactics had been honed. Samuel J. Tilden, a New York governor who rose to political prominence in part because he took on those Tammany Hall gangs, defeated Rutherford B. Hayes in the popular vote by about 250,000, about 3 percent of the total vote.

Each side engaged in widespread fraud. Both parties claimed victory in three states—Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina—while a single electoral vote in Oregon was also subject to a dispute. With those 20 electoral votes cast into doubt, Tilden was one vote shy of the outright majority needed to win the presidency.

What followed was unprecedented. Congress was unable to resolve the impasse in the Electoral College because Republicans controlled the Senate, the president of which, per the Constitution, is responsible for tallying the electoral votes. Democrats, meanwhile, controlled the House, which would elect the president if neither candidate received a majority in the Electoral College. If the Republican Senate rejected the votes from the disputed states, then, it would succeed only in throwing the election to the House—which would, presumably, elect Tilden, the Democrat. If the Senate accepted the disputed votes, Tilden would win the old-fashioned way.

The impasse dragged on for weeks. At one point, a Democratic state representative from Kentucky, who also happened to be the editor of a Louisville newspaper, issued a call for “100,000 unarmed men to march on Washington” to defend Tilden’s rightful victory.

Finally, Congress struck a bizarre compromise: It passed a law creating a one-time Electoral Commission including five then–Supreme Court justices and members from both chambers. The commission concocted a backroom deal—the specifics of which were never made public—to name Hayes president. Fearing a possible mob protesting the outcome, the inauguration ceremony was held in private.

It was the closest America has ever come to having a president picked by a secret cabal rather than by the voters.

Recognizing the damage that disputed elections and backroom deals could do to the legitimacy of the federal government, Congress passed the Electoral Count Act in 1887 to clarify how the vice president, as the president of the Senate, should handle a situation where states proposed competing slates of electors. Going forward, only slates certified by the lawful governor of a state would be recognized, and objections to electors would only be considered if members of both the House and the Senate raised them. It would be another 128 years before such an objection would be logged.

Of course, that didn’t put an end to disputed elections. A popular conspiracy theory maintains that President John F. Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 with the help of votes cast by dead former residents of Illinois. Lyndon B. Johnson’s reputation as one of America’s most powerful senators (prior to succeeding Kennedy in the White House) may not have materialized if he hadn’t won a runoff election in 1948 that he initially appeared to lose. (Six days after the election, thousands of additional votes, an overwhelming number of which were tabbed for Johnson, were reported in three Texas counties, according to Johnson biographer Robert Caro.) And, of course, there was the infamous Florida recount in the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

There is one more noteworthy aspect of the 1876 election: Tilden accepted his loss with a degree of dignity that is hard to imagine today. He rebuffed his allies’ attempts to challenge the legitimacy of the commission that decided the election for Hayes, and he never sought public office again. “I can retire to public life,” he reportedly said, “with the consciousness that I shall receive from posterity the credit of having been elected to the highest position in the gift of the people.”

One cornerstone of democratic legitimacy is that the loser accepts the results. These days, even clearly defeated candidates will sometimes refuse to do so—that includes Trump, who continues to claim that he won in 2020. But like so many other aspects of Trump’s presidency, his refusal to publicly accept the election’s outcome is the apotheosis of a trend that had been building for decades.

After incumbent George W. Bush scored a narrow victory over then-Sen. John Kerry (D–Mass.) in 2004, many Democrats pushed a now largely forgotten conspiracy theory that claimed inadequate supplies of voting machines in predominantly black communities caused excessively long lines that discouraged voting, and that electronic voting machines added nonexistent votes to Bush’s total.

Then-Sen. Barbara Boxer (D–Calif.) and then-Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D–Ohio) went so far as to file an official objection to the certification of Ohio’s electoral votes—the first time that members of Congress had activated that provision of the Electoral Count Act. The objection was defeated by margins of 31–267 in the House and 1–74 in the Senate. Boxer has claimed that there is “no comparison” between her effort and what Republicans attempted to do after the last election. But a Rubicon was crossed.

President Barack Obama was elected by wide enough margins in 2008 and 2012 that disputes over the Electoral College were insignificant. Even so, Republicans, including and especially Trump, were not shy about questioning his legitimacy by raising questions about where Obama had been born.

Trump’s election, too, was marred by conspiracy theories, each seemingly wilder than the last. Democrats breathlessly reacted to each new development in the seemingly endless spiral of Trump-era scandals, and some seemed honestly to believe that Trump’s presidency would be ended—or even that he would be revealed to be a Russian spy—by revelations that were always inevitable but never arrived. More than a year after Trump left office, this narrative persists. Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told a group of social media influencers on March 11 that “of course” Russia “hacked our election here” in 2016.

This trend of mixing conspiratorial allegations with refusals to accept election results has shown up in nonpresidential races too, as when Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams refused to concede Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial election or when Republican nominee Roy Moore refused to concede a 2017 special election to fill one of Alabama’s two Senate seats.

Some of this is fairly frivolous. Some of it is quite worrying. But little of it is truly novel. American political candidates have always sought to exploit such fears.

“There has never been a time when Americans have been comfortable with their electoral system. Mass politics has come with an undertow of fear,” wrote the Oxford historian Adam I.P. Smith in a prescient 2016 essay. “At the heart of this fear is the creeping sense that the system’s transparency is a sham and that someone somewhere is manipulating the system to cheat the ‘real’ people of their rightful rule. Almost always such charges are linked to the idea that there is a group of voters who are so weak or supine that they will allow themselves to be the pawns of some behind-the-scenes power broker.”

Partisan Shenanigans vs. the Public

Behind-the-scenes power brokers do exist, of course. And sometimes they really are scheming against the rest of us, through partisan redistricting processes and through ballot access laws that limit political competition.

When it comes to redistricting, the once-per-decade process of redrawing congressional and legislative district lines, “partisan concerns almost invariably take precedence over all else,” says Michael Li, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice. “That produces maps where electoral results are virtually guaranteed even in years where the party drawing maps has a bad year.”

Thanks to their party’s big victories in the 2010 midterms, Republicans controlled a majority of statehouses when the last round of redistricting took place. They took full advantage. By carefully drawing districts to maximize their chances, Republicans claimed 10 of North Carolina’s 13 congressional districts in 2014, despite winning just 53 percent of the statewide vote in House races. Those results—and similar outcomes in states with GOP-drawn maps, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—drew widespread condemnation in the media and helped kick-start redistricting reform efforts in some states.

What went less remarked upon is the fact that, in the same election, Democrats swept all nine of Massachusetts’ congressional districts despite winning just 59 percent of the statewide vote.

As both parties become more adept at picking their voters and packing their opponents’ voters into as few districts as possible, elections have become less competitive. After the most recent round of redistricting, there are just 60 congressional districts (out of 435) where Biden or Trump won by fewer than 8 percentage points in the 2020 election, according to an analysis by the Brennan Center released in August.

Election outcomes in these “single-party districts” are effectively determined by the lower-turnout primary process, rendering the higher-turnout general election meaningless. Candidates running in those districts have little political incentive to appeal to the median voter, and are likely to see a greater benefit from playing to the extreme edges of our politics.

Ballot access laws serve a similar purpose. Like redistricting procedures, these differ from state to state. But the result is to punish outsiders who want to put their candidates on the ballot alongside the Rs and Ds.

To understand how redistricting and ballot access laws work in tandem to undermine the democratic process, take a look at Georgia’s 14th district, home of Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. It’s a one-party district. Democrats didn’t even run a candidate there in 2014 or 2016, and Greene’s Democratic opponent got barely more than 25 percent of the vote in 2020.

Third parties might provide some needed competition to an increasingly off-the-rails GOP if they were allowed to do so. But Georgia’s ballot access laws are among the toughest in the country, requiring prospective candidates from outside the duopoly to front a $5,200 fee and collect 23,000 signatures. The rules are so tough that no third-party candidate has qualified for the ballot in a congressional election in Georgia since the law was passed in 1943, ostensibly to prevent Communists from getting elected. Angela Pence, the Libertarian Party candidate who attempted to challenge Greene this year, fell well short of meeting the outlandish requirements.

A lack of real competition and a primary system that elevates fringe voices has helped transform seemingly every important election into a winner-take-all, fate-of-the-universe-hanging-in-balance contest between a pair of detestable options.

That, in turn, has bred deep-rooted cultural resentments on both the left and the right. The modern progressive left’s resentments stem at least in part from Bush’s Supreme Court–decided victory over Gore in 2000 and an electoral system that could twice in five presidential elections allow the candidate with fewer popular votes to win. But it has metastasized into something else—a condescending frustration with the mass of Republican voters, as seen in comments like Obama’s reference to “bitter” voters who “cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them,” or Hillary Clinton’s sweeping condemnation of GOP “deplorables.” Republicans, in this view, are morally tainted as a cohort, and their political power is fundamentally illegitimate.

Conservatives, meanwhile, have fallen victim to a paranoid mindset about left-leaning power that manages to be self-aggrandizing even as it wildly exaggerates their victimhood. That’s most obvious in the conspiracy theories that catch on in the Republican base, like the “birther” controversy under Obama and the more recent QAnon phenomenon, a core premise of which is that Trump was engaged in a secret battle against a clandestine cabal of powerful pedophiles. There is paranoia about the loss of American jobs to overseas workers, paranoia about the loss of American jobs to immigrants, paranoia about the “replacement” of a white, Christian majority with, well, anything else.

And there’s a constant fear in the GOP base that even Republican officials are selling them out—a claim made by both the small-government Tea Party movement of the early 2010s and the big-government nationalists who rose to prominence with Trump.

In a related development, political scientists have tracked a rise in “negative partisanship”—that is, when people are motivated primarily to vote against a perceived opponent rather than for their own preferred choice—since the early 2000s.

With fewer meaningful options at the ballot box, voters are increasingly motivated not to choose leaders but to lash out against opponents. And if the electorate is motivated mostly by fear of what the other guy will do if he gets to be in charge, it becomes easier to justify doing anything to prevent that outcome.

Anything. Like rejecting the results of an election, and storming the Capitol.

The Real Attempt To Subvert Democracy

The striking images of protesters storming the Capitol after Trump urged them to “walk down to the Capitol” and “show strength” are by now familiar to virtually all Americans. But the unprecedented eruption of violence at the Capitol was actually the less worrisome part of the events that unfolded on January 6, 2021.

That’s not to downplay the riot. Trump was rightly impeached over his role in inciting the mob. Protesters who broke laws have been arrested and are being tried and convicted. The House’s special committee investigating the incident has done a service by documenting the specific timeline of events, including the involvement of Trump, top White House staffers, and Republican members of Congress.

Perhaps the most important detail to emerge during the hearings is the extent to which Trump’s inner circle knew his election conspiracy theories were empty nonsense. “I said something to the effect of, ‘Sir, we’ve done dozens of investigations, hundreds of interviews. The major allegations are not supported by the evidence developed. We’ve looked in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada,'” former deputy attorney general Richard Donoghue testified to the January 6 committee. Donoghue recalled telling Trump: “We’re doing our job. Much of the info you’re getting is false.”

Trump went ahead with the plan anyway.

The plan was an attempt to pull off what Hayes succeeded in doing back in 1876: inject enough uncertainty into the results to allow Congress to determine the outcome of the election. At the center of that strategy was Vice President Mike Pence, who was presiding over the certification of the Electoral College’s votes when the riot occurred.

This was the real attempt to subvert democracy.

In September 2021, attorney John Eastman shared with media outlets a six-page memo he had initially drafted for the Trump White House in the aftermath of the 2020 election. It said that officials in a handful of states won narrowly by Biden should submit alternative slates of electors, then have Pence invoke his unilateral authority “without asking for permission—either from a vote of the joint session [of Congress] or from the [Supreme Court]”—to count only the Trump-supporting slates from those states. If state legislators in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and other disputed states failed to take the bait, there was a backup plan in which Pence would cite “all the evidence and the letters from state legislators calling into question the executive certifications” as grounds for refusing to count the votes from seven disputed states.

“At the end of the count, the tally would therefore be 232 for Trump, 222 for Biden,” Eastman wrote. “Because the 12th Amendment says ‘majority of electors appointed,’ having determined that no electors from the 7 states were appointed…TRUMP WINS.”

It’s unknowable whether this would have worked. It would have drawn an immediate lawsuit from the Biden campaign, but it’s unclear how the Supreme Court would have viewed its role in such a dispute.

We never had to find out, thankfully, because Pence didn’t go along with the plot.

Trump still believes he should have. “Mike Pence did have the right to change the outcome,” Trump said in a statement released in February of this year. “He could have overturned the election.”

Pence still disagrees. “I had no right to overturn the election,” Pence said a few days after Trump’s statement was published. While speaking at an event organized by The Federalist Society, a conservative legal organization, the former veep went on to say “there’s nothing more un-American” than to have “one person choose the president.”

If the same party held the vice presidency and a majority of the state-by-state congressional delegations in the House—as Republicans did on January 6, 2020—then the Eastman memo is an effective road map for doing exactly what Trump now admits he was trying to do: use a sitting vice president to overturn the legitimate results of an election. If it had succeeded, no riots would have been necessary. Republicans who might have been tempted to support that ultimate form of political hardball to get a second term for Trump should ask themselves if they’d now want Vice President Kamala Harris to have the same power.

As ugly, violent, and embarrassing as things were, the system survived 2020. For the most part, local officials, governors, courts, state lawmakers, members of Congress, and the vice president did the right things, even against their own political self-interest—and even, at times, with Trump’s hot breath down their necks and thousands of angry protesters screaming in their ears.

When you strip away the ceremonial and administrative trappings, democracy is just people—people who are, inevitably, as flawed, selfish, and ignorant as anyone else. All we can expect is that they follow the rules and their own best judgment. This time they did.

So why does next time feel so ominous?

The War for Legitimacy

American democracy is inherently contingent. Its legitimacy is based not on pure majoritarian desire—the will of the people—but on the integrity of the system itself. If officials drew a different set of district lines in North Carolina or Ohio, the same voters casting the same votes in the same places might produce a different result. Does that magically change the will of the people? Elections are more like games than we like to admit. The rules are somewhat flexible. But as in any game, cheating should be called out and punished.

With that in mind, here are a few things we should be able to say with certainty about the state of American democracy.

First, Trump and Eastman’s attempt at exploiting a loophole in how Congress counts the electoral votes was deliberately designed to break the game. This acute attack on the fundamental legitimacy of determining who gets to be president must be addressed before it can be potentially exploited again.

Second, the crisis that nearly unfolded on January 6 was the culmination of a decadeslong poisoning of political culture by resentful and paranoid elements within the two major parties. This is a cultural issue unlikely to be solved by passing new voting laws.

Naturally, both Democrats and Republicans are proposing new voting laws.

Republican efforts are primarily directed at preventing the mostly nonexistent scourge of voter fraud by laying new requirements on would-be voters. According to the Brennan Center, which tracked 389 state-level election bills during the 2021 legislative sessions, at least 20 bills were enacted along these lines. Some require voters to show photo identification before casting a ballot. Others limit voter registration, purge voter rolls of those who haven’t shown up in several election cycles, or impose new regulations on mail-in voting—like Georgia’s controversial new law limiting how many ballot drop boxes a county may deploy in advance of an election.

Each of those ideas has its own merits and drawbacks, but the policy debate obscures what’s really going on here. Voter fraud is not a substantial problem.

“There was no evidence of widespread voter fraud,” the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, a conservative group that reviewed the state’s 2020 election returns, reported last year. “In all likelihood, more eligible voters cast ballots for Joe Biden than Donald Trump. We found little direct evidence of fraud, and for the most part, an analysis of the results and voting patterns does not give rise to an inference of fraud.” Audits carried out by state lawmakers in Arizona and Pennsylvania similarly failed to uncover evidence of the far-ranging conspiracy Trump alleged.

That hasn’t stopped GOP lawmakers from pressing ahead, seeking to change the rules of the game for a political advantage.

Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to one-up Republican efforts at the state level by passing a major overhaul of election rules at the federal level. The changes proposed by House Resolution 1 would federalize much of the election process that has always been under the purview of states.

Key components of the sprawling bill include implementing a national voter registration system, requiring at least 15 consecutive days of early voting, and imposing new disclosure requirements for political advertising and candidates. (Future presidents will not be able to emulate Trump by keeping their tax returns secret, for example.)

In January, Biden called on Senate Democrats to blow up the filibuster in order to pass those changes, which cleared the House in a party-line vote late last year. So far, that hasn’t happened. He also doubled down on the bipartisan effort to undermine electoral legitimacy by preemptively claiming that the 2022 midterms might be unfair unless Democrats’ preferred policies were enacted. “The increase and the prospect of being illegitimate is in direct proportion to us not being able to get these…reforms passed,” the president said. (The White House later clarified that Biden was “absolutely not predicting that the 2022 elections would be illegitimate.”)

Republicans control a majority of statehouses. Democrats control Congress. Each is trying to impose its own will on elections, as American political parties have for well over a century. The increased politicization of not just elections but the rules governing elections will only deepen the distrust and paranoia already driving American politics.

A few members of Congress are focused on fixing what nearly went off the rails on January 6. In July, a group of nine Republicans and seven Democrats introduced the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Act, which would amend key parts of the law passed in the wake of the 1876 election. The proposal is a rarity in Congress: a specific solution to a specific problem. It would remove much of the ambiguity that the Eastman memo sought to exploit by clarifying that the vice president “shall have no power to solely determine, accept, reject, or otherwise adjudicate or resolve disputes over the proper list of electors, the validity of electors, or the votes of electors.” It would also require at least a fifth of the Senate and a fifth of the House to object to vote counts before an official objection could be lodged.

Since GOP gubernatorial nominees in Arizona, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have already said they would not have certified Biden’s win, the bill’s passage is even more urgent. Among its provisions, the bipartisan reform would allow federal judges to intervene if a state’s legislature refused to certify a winner in a presidential election or if the state certified the losing candidate as the winner.

That might help, but the system likely cannot survive if a major American party coalesces around the idea that the only legitimate elections are ones that it wins.

Seriously addressing that problem will be more difficult. But reforms aimed at giving voters more choices, or ensuring that elections reward candidates that better reflect the preferences of the median voter, might help.

Alaska and Maine, for example, are experimenting with new primary systems that attempt to limit the power of party bases in choosing candidates for the general election. Maine now uses ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to list their first, second, and third place choices. That promises to open up new axes of competition for votes.

In Alaska, a top-four primary system is now being used, allowing the four candidates with the most votes in the primary round to advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. That narrows the field, but it makes it harder for a fractional candidate to eliminate the alternatives.

Under the old primary rules, someone like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R–Alaska) might not have survived after voting to convict Trump for his actions on January 6. Or she might have voted differently in that instance to preserve her political future. As it stands, she is the favorite for reelection this year.

That might make it seem like Alaska’s reforms are another win for incumbency, but that’s probably not true. By guaranteeing four spots in the general election for the top primary vote-getters, Alaska’s reforms naturally throw open the door to candidates from outside the R/D duopoly, thus undermining the major parties’ efforts to limit political competition.

These sorts of changes might help turn down the temperature of politics. Federalizing the rules governing elections, on the other hand, would only crank up these winner-take-all battles, which are as corrosive as they are exhausting. If we’re going to tinker with the system, it’s better for states to experiment with potential fixes rather than trust one national party to implement high-stakes changes. Big partisan plans to “save” democracy are often little more than a false face for the urge to control it.

What makes a legitimate electoral system? Ideally, it should emulate a market: sometimes chaotic, full of competing choices, reflecting the ever-changing wills of the participants. That means some things have to be considered out of bounds. One person should not get to determine outcomes. Participants should not be excluded based on arbitrary criteria such as race and gender. Cartels that limit electoral competition should be rooted out. And violence is never an appropriate way to get what you want.

De-escalation would also be helped by removing some of the mighty powers that the presidency wields: Make the prize less seductive, and the contest will become less important.

Tweaks to the electoral process won’t eliminate the resentment and paranoia that have been driving American politics in increasingly irrational directions. The dark side of the pursuit of political power isn’t going away. But there are cracks in the system that we can patch, and that can reduce the damage that the dark side can do.

The post American Elections Are a Mess, and They Always Have Been appeared first on Reason.com.

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Photo: The TSA’s Liquid Haul


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In June, a regional Transportation Security Administration spokesperson shared a photo on Twitter of a display of liquid items confiscated over three days by agents at Syracuse Hancock International Airport. Each item in the massive haul, including bottles of water, shampoo, and booze, a jar of peanut butter, and several snow globes, was confiscated for violating the 3.4-ounce liquid limit for carry-ons.

The post Photo: The TSA's Liquid Haul appeared first on Reason.com.

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American Elections Are a Mess, and They Always Have Been


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It was a presidential election unlike any before.

During the campaign, one candidate was accused of using his political connections for personal enrichment. His opponent, in turn, stood accused of being mentally unfit for office. Allegations of voter fraud, intimidation, and attempted disenfranchisement flew in both directions—and only got worse after the election did not immediately provide a clear winner.

The crucial electoral votes in four states were disputed by the losing candidate, and his supporters pushed a wild plan to submit alternate slates of electors to Congress. There were even calls for impromptu militias to march on Washington. Finally, weeks after the election, Congress settled the dispute and declared a winner, but the inauguration took place under unusual circumstances due to fears of more violence.

Watching those chaotic events unfold, observers surely couldn’t help but wonder whether the American experiment was in peril. Could the country survive another election like this, or was it a sign of dissolution—or even another civil war?

Nearly 150 years later, the union endures.

Oh, you thought I was describing the tumultuous events of the 2020 presidential election? The parallels are there, of course: the accusations of bad faith, the threats of mob violence, the resolution by lawmakers under the Capitol dome. And the core of the fight, then as now, was whether the election had, in effect, been rigged by shadowy forces defying the will of the people.

The election of 1876 culminated with Rutherford B. Hayes inaugurated as America’s 19th president, despite having lost the popular vote and initially appearing to lose the electoral vote too. It probably remains the most controversial presidential contest in American history.

That’s not to diminish the importance of the events that unfolded in the immediate aftermath of the most recent presidential election. The January 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump and the preceding attempts by Trump and his associates to cajole everyone from county election officials to the vice president himself into overturning the results of the election were deeply worrying signs for the nation’s health.

But the past provides context. It can also be a guide. A dysfunctional, chaotic election is not necessarily the end of democracy. If the history of American politics teaches us anything, it should be that parties and candidates will stop at almost nothing to achieve power, and not only on Election Day. Trump and his cronies are not the first maniacs to take a hammer to the American electoral system. They probably won’t be the last.

The project of democracy is always in flux. Maintaining and improving the system requires an unfiltered view of history and a healthy amount of skepticism. That means refusing to dismiss the rising threat of anti-democratic sentiment on the right, but it also means not letting the issue become a partisan tool for the left either. Preserving American democracy will require what it always has: common sense, good faith, policy reforms that target real problems rather than partisan obsessions, and a willingness to accept that there’s no such thing as a perfect democracy—only a functional, legitimate one.

Allegations as Old as America

The presidential battle of 1876 was not the first disputed election in American history, nor the first to be marred by allegations of voter fraud and other criminal behavior.

One of the most infamous electoral disputes involved two of the country’s Founding Fathers. New York’s 1792 gubernatorial election was a showdown that’s nearly unimaginable today. The Federalist Party nominated John Jay, the sitting chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, to oppose incumbent Gov. George Clinton. When the votes were counted the first time, Jay appeared to have won. But when the state legislature met to certify the results, votes from three counties were disqualified on technicalities and Clinton was declared the winner by a mere 108 votes. He was subsequently “denounced as a usurper,” historian John Stilwell Jenkins wrote in his 1846 account, History of Political Parties in the State of New York.

In fact, the early years of American history were full of electoral shenanigans. The 1800 presidential election culminated in a backroom deal that handed Thomas Jefferson the presidency in an election that had been thrown to the House of Representatives after Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied in the Electoral College. In 1824, Andrew Jackson won a clear plurality of the electoral and popular votes in an unusual four-way race, but the presidency was awarded to John Quincy Adams when the House once again had to settle things.

Both elections paved the way for changes intended to ensure that similar controversies did not pop up again. Following Jefferson’s victory, Congress and the states ratified the 12th Amendment, which changed how the Electoral College operates. And after the Jackson-Adams controversy, the political system adapted. A new party system emerged, with Jackson’s faction forming the basis of what is today the Democratic Party. Rather than regional candidates, party-specific nominating processes began to control who would run for president. The influence of cohesive political parties created a new challenge for the democratic system. It was no longer just personalities but entire political machines trying to maximize leverage over election results.

They were not subtle. Gangs routinely intimidated rivals and stuffed ballot boxes. Potential voters were bribed with whiskey or food. Violence was common. In 1854, “Honest John” Kelly, an Irish Catholic and key figure in New York City’s Tammany Hall political machine, organized a gang of shipyard workers and firefighters to attack a polling place at the corner of Elizabeth Street and Grand Street. They destroyed ballots marked for Kelly’s opponent and ensured “Honest John’s” narrow win in his first election to Congress.

By 1876, those tactics had been honed. Samuel J. Tilden, a New York governor who rose to political prominence in part because he took on those Tammany Hall gangs, defeated Rutherford B. Hayes in the popular vote by about 250,000, about 3 percent of the total vote.

Each side engaged in widespread fraud. Both parties claimed victory in three states—Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina—while a single electoral vote in Oregon was also subject to a dispute. With those 20 electoral votes cast into doubt, Tilden was one vote shy of the outright majority needed to win the presidency.

What followed was unprecedented. Congress was unable to resolve the impasse in the Electoral College because Republicans controlled the Senate, the president of which, per the Constitution, is responsible for tallying the electoral votes. Democrats, meanwhile, controlled the House, which would elect the president if neither candidate received a majority in the Electoral College. If the Republican Senate rejected the votes from the disputed states, then, it would succeed only in throwing the election to the House—which would, presumably, elect Tilden, the Democrat. If the Senate accepted the disputed votes, Tilden would win the old-fashioned way.

The impasse dragged on for weeks. At one point, a Democratic state representative from Kentucky, who also happened to be the editor of a Louisville newspaper, issued a call for “100,000 unarmed men to march on Washington” to defend Tilden’s rightful victory.

Finally, Congress struck a bizarre compromise: It passed a law creating a one-time Electoral Commission including five then–Supreme Court justices and members from both chambers. The commission concocted a backroom deal—the specifics of which were never made public—to name Hayes president. Fearing a possible mob protesting the outcome, the inauguration ceremony was held in private.

It was the closest America has ever come to having a president picked by a secret cabal rather than by the voters.

Recognizing the damage that disputed elections and backroom deals could do to the legitimacy of the federal government, Congress passed the Electoral Count Act in 1887 to clarify how the vice president, as the president of the Senate, should handle a situation where states proposed competing slates of electors. Going forward, only slates certified by the lawful governor of a state would be recognized, and objections to electors would only be considered if members of both the House and the Senate raised them. It would be another 128 years before such an objection would be logged.

Of course, that didn’t put an end to disputed elections. A popular conspiracy theory maintains that President John F. Kennedy won the presidency in 1960 with the help of votes cast by dead former residents of Illinois. Lyndon B. Johnson’s reputation as one of America’s most powerful senators (prior to succeeding Kennedy in the White House) may not have materialized if he hadn’t won a runoff election in 1948 that he initially appeared to lose. (Six days after the election, thousands of additional votes, an overwhelming number of which were tabbed for Johnson, were reported in three Texas counties, according to Johnson biographer Robert Caro.) And, of course, there was the infamous Florida recount in the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

There is one more noteworthy aspect of the 1876 election: Tilden accepted his loss with a degree of dignity that is hard to imagine today. He rebuffed his allies’ attempts to challenge the legitimacy of the commission that decided the election for Hayes, and he never sought public office again. “I can retire to public life,” he reportedly said, “with the consciousness that I shall receive from posterity the credit of having been elected to the highest position in the gift of the people.”

One cornerstone of democratic legitimacy is that the loser accepts the results. These days, even clearly defeated candidates will sometimes refuse to do so—that includes Trump, who continues to claim that he won in 2020. But like so many other aspects of Trump’s presidency, his refusal to publicly accept the election’s outcome is the apotheosis of a trend that had been building for decades.

After incumbent George W. Bush scored a narrow victory over then-Sen. John Kerry (D–Mass.) in 2004, many Democrats pushed a now largely forgotten conspiracy theory that claimed inadequate supplies of voting machines in predominantly black communities caused excessively long lines that discouraged voting, and that electronic voting machines added nonexistent votes to Bush’s total.

Then-Sen. Barbara Boxer (D–Calif.) and then-Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D–Ohio) went so far as to file an official objection to the certification of Ohio’s electoral votes—the first time that members of Congress had activated that provision of the Electoral Count Act. The objection was defeated by margins of 31–267 in the House and 1–74 in the Senate. Boxer has claimed that there is “no comparison” between her effort and what Republicans attempted to do after the last election. But a Rubicon was crossed.

President Barack Obama was elected by wide enough margins in 2008 and 2012 that disputes over the Electoral College were insignificant. Even so, Republicans, including and especially Trump, were not shy about questioning his legitimacy by raising questions about where Obama had been born.

Trump’s election, too, was marred by conspiracy theories, each seemingly wilder than the last. Democrats breathlessly reacted to each new development in the seemingly endless spiral of Trump-era scandals, and some seemed honestly to believe that Trump’s presidency would be ended—or even that he would be revealed to be a Russian spy—by revelations that were always inevitable but never arrived. More than a year after Trump left office, this narrative persists. Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told a group of social media influencers on March 11 that “of course” Russia “hacked our election here” in 2016.

This trend of mixing conspiratorial allegations with refusals to accept election results has shown up in nonpresidential races too, as when Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams refused to concede Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial election or when Republican nominee Roy Moore refused to concede a 2017 special election to fill one of Alabama’s two Senate seats.

Some of this is fairly frivolous. Some of it is quite worrying. But little of it is truly novel. American political candidates have always sought to exploit such fears.

“There has never been a time when Americans have been comfortable with their electoral system. Mass politics has come with an undertow of fear,” wrote the Oxford historian Adam I.P. Smith in a prescient 2016 essay. “At the heart of this fear is the creeping sense that the system’s transparency is a sham and that someone somewhere is manipulating the system to cheat the ‘real’ people of their rightful rule. Almost always such charges are linked to the idea that there is a group of voters who are so weak or supine that they will allow themselves to be the pawns of some behind-the-scenes power broker.”

Partisan Shenanigans vs. the Public

Behind-the-scenes power brokers do exist, of course. And sometimes they really are scheming against the rest of us, through partisan redistricting processes and through ballot access laws that limit political competition.

When it comes to redistricting, the once-per-decade process of redrawing congressional and legislative district lines, “partisan concerns almost invariably take precedence over all else,” says Michael Li, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice. “That produces maps where electoral results are virtually guaranteed even in years where the party drawing maps has a bad year.”

Thanks to their party’s big victories in the 2010 midterms, Republicans controlled a majority of statehouses when the last round of redistricting took place. They took full advantage. By carefully drawing districts to maximize their chances, Republicans claimed 10 of North Carolina’s 13 congressional districts in 2014, despite winning just 53 percent of the statewide vote in House races. Those results—and similar outcomes in states with GOP-drawn maps, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—drew widespread condemnation in the media and helped kick-start redistricting reform efforts in some states.

What went less remarked upon is the fact that, in the same election, Democrats swept all nine of Massachusetts’ congressional districts despite winning just 59 percent of the statewide vote.

As both parties become more adept at picking their voters and packing their opponents’ voters into as few districts as possible, elections have become less competitive. After the most recent round of redistricting, there are just 60 congressional districts (out of 435) where Biden or Trump won by fewer than 8 percentage points in the 2020 election, according to an analysis by the Brennan Center released in August.

Election outcomes in these “single-party districts” are effectively determined by the lower-turnout primary process, rendering the higher-turnout general election meaningless. Candidates running in those districts have little political incentive to appeal to the median voter, and are likely to see a greater benefit from playing to the extreme edges of our politics.

Ballot access laws serve a similar purpose. Like redistricting procedures, these differ from state to state. But the result is to punish outsiders who want to put their candidates on the ballot alongside the Rs and Ds.

To understand how redistricting and ballot access laws work in tandem to undermine the democratic process, take a look at Georgia’s 14th district, home of Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. It’s a one-party district. Democrats didn’t even run a candidate there in 2014 or 2016, and Greene’s Democratic opponent got barely more than 25 percent of the vote in 2020.

Third parties might provide some needed competition to an increasingly off-the-rails GOP if they were allowed to do so. But Georgia’s ballot access laws are among the toughest in the country, requiring prospective candidates from outside the duopoly to front a $5,200 fee and collect 23,000 signatures. The rules are so tough that no third-party candidate has qualified for the ballot in a congressional election in Georgia since the law was passed in 1943, ostensibly to prevent Communists from getting elected. Angela Pence, the Libertarian Party candidate who attempted to challenge Greene this year, fell well short of meeting the outlandish requirements.

A lack of real competition and a primary system that elevates fringe voices has helped transform seemingly every important election into a winner-take-all, fate-of-the-universe-hanging-in-balance contest between a pair of detestable options.

That, in turn, has bred deep-rooted cultural resentments on both the left and the right. The modern progressive left’s resentments stem at least in part from Bush’s Supreme Court–decided victory over Gore in 2000 and an electoral system that could twice in five presidential elections allow the candidate with fewer popular votes to win. But it has metastasized into something else—a condescending frustration with the mass of Republican voters, as seen in comments like Obama’s reference to “bitter” voters who “cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them,” or Hillary Clinton’s sweeping condemnation of GOP “deplorables.” Republicans, in this view, are morally tainted as a cohort, and their political power is fundamentally illegitimate.

Conservatives, meanwhile, have fallen victim to a paranoid mindset about left-leaning power that manages to be self-aggrandizing even as it wildly exaggerates their victimhood. That’s most obvious in the conspiracy theories that catch on in the Republican base, like the “birther” controversy under Obama and the more recent QAnon phenomenon, a core premise of which is that Trump was engaged in a secret battle against a clandestine cabal of powerful pedophiles. There is paranoia about the loss of American jobs to overseas workers, paranoia about the loss of American jobs to immigrants, paranoia about the “replacement” of a white, Christian majority with, well, anything else.

And there’s a constant fear in the GOP base that even Republican officials are selling them out—a claim made by both the small-government Tea Party movement of the early 2010s and the big-government nationalists who rose to prominence with Trump.

In a related development, political scientists have tracked a rise in “negative partisanship”—that is, when people are motivated primarily to vote against a perceived opponent rather than for their own preferred choice—since the early 2000s.

With fewer meaningful options at the ballot box, voters are increasingly motivated not to choose leaders but to lash out against opponents. And if the electorate is motivated mostly by fear of what the other guy will do if he gets to be in charge, it becomes easier to justify doing anything to prevent that outcome.

Anything. Like rejecting the results of an election, and storming the Capitol.

The Real Attempt To Subvert Democracy

The striking images of protesters storming the Capitol after Trump urged them to “walk down to the Capitol” and “show strength” are by now familiar to virtually all Americans. But the unprecedented eruption of violence at the Capitol was actually the less worrisome part of the events that unfolded on January 6, 2021.

That’s not to downplay the riot. Trump was rightly impeached over his role in inciting the mob. Protesters who broke laws have been arrested and are being tried and convicted. The House’s special committee investigating the incident has done a service by documenting the specific timeline of events, including the involvement of Trump, top White House staffers, and Republican members of Congress.

Perhaps the most important detail to emerge during the hearings is the extent to which Trump’s inner circle knew his election conspiracy theories were empty nonsense. “I said something to the effect of, ‘Sir, we’ve done dozens of investigations, hundreds of interviews. The major allegations are not supported by the evidence developed. We’ve looked in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada,'” former deputy attorney general Richard Donoghue testified to the January 6 committee. Donoghue recalled telling Trump: “We’re doing our job. Much of the info you’re getting is false.”

Trump went ahead with the plan anyway.

The plan was an attempt to pull off what Hayes succeeded in doing back in 1876: inject enough uncertainty into the results to allow Congress to determine the outcome of the election. At the center of that strategy was Vice President Mike Pence, who was presiding over the certification of the Electoral College’s votes when the riot occurred.

This was the real attempt to subvert democracy.

In September 2021, attorney John Eastman shared with media outlets a six-page memo he had initially drafted for the Trump White House in the aftermath of the 2020 election. It said that officials in a handful of states won narrowly by Biden should submit alternative slates of electors, then have Pence invoke his unilateral authority “without asking for permission—either from a vote of the joint session [of Congress] or from the [Supreme Court]”—to count only the Trump-supporting slates from those states. If state legislators in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and other disputed states failed to take the bait, there was a backup plan in which Pence would cite “all the evidence and the letters from state legislators calling into question the executive certifications” as grounds for refusing to count the votes from seven disputed states.

“At the end of the count, the tally would therefore be 232 for Trump, 222 for Biden,” Eastman wrote. “Because the 12th Amendment says ‘majority of electors appointed,’ having determined that no electors from the 7 states were appointed…TRUMP WINS.”

It’s unknowable whether this would have worked. It would have drawn an immediate lawsuit from the Biden campaign, but it’s unclear how the Supreme Court would have viewed its role in such a dispute.

We never had to find out, thankfully, because Pence didn’t go along with the plot.

Trump still believes he should have. “Mike Pence did have the right to change the outcome,” Trump said in a statement released in February of this year. “He could have overturned the election.”

Pence still disagrees. “I had no right to overturn the election,” Pence said a few days after Trump’s statement was published. While speaking at an event organized by The Federalist Society, a conservative legal organization, the former veep went on to say “there’s nothing more un-American” than to have “one person choose the president.”

If the same party held the vice presidency and a majority of the state-by-state congressional delegations in the House—as Republicans did on January 6, 2020—then the Eastman memo is an effective road map for doing exactly what Trump now admits he was trying to do: use a sitting vice president to overturn the legitimate results of an election. If it had succeeded, no riots would have been necessary. Republicans who might have been tempted to support that ultimate form of political hardball to get a second term for Trump should ask themselves if they’d now want Vice President Kamala Harris to have the same power.

As ugly, violent, and embarrassing as things were, the system survived 2020. For the most part, local officials, governors, courts, state lawmakers, members of Congress, and the vice president did the right things, even against their own political self-interest—and even, at times, with Trump’s hot breath down their necks and thousands of angry protesters screaming in their ears.

When you strip away the ceremonial and administrative trappings, democracy is just people—people who are, inevitably, as flawed, selfish, and ignorant as anyone else. All we can expect is that they follow the rules and their own best judgment. This time they did.

So why does next time feel so ominous?

The War for Legitimacy

American democracy is inherently contingent. Its legitimacy is based not on pure majoritarian desire—the will of the people—but on the integrity of the system itself. If officials drew a different set of district lines in North Carolina or Ohio, the same voters casting the same votes in the same places might produce a different result. Does that magically change the will of the people? Elections are more like games than we like to admit. The rules are somewhat flexible. But as in any game, cheating should be called out and punished.

With that in mind, here are a few things we should be able to say with certainty about the state of American democracy.

First, Trump and Eastman’s attempt at exploiting a loophole in how Congress counts the electoral votes was deliberately designed to break the game. This acute attack on the fundamental legitimacy of determining who gets to be president must be addressed before it can be potentially exploited again.

Second, the crisis that nearly unfolded on January 6 was the culmination of a decadeslong poisoning of political culture by resentful and paranoid elements within the two major parties. This is a cultural issue unlikely to be solved by passing new voting laws.

Naturally, both Democrats and Republicans are proposing new voting laws.

Republican efforts are primarily directed at preventing the mostly nonexistent scourge of voter fraud by laying new requirements on would-be voters. According to the Brennan Center, which tracked 389 state-level election bills during the 2021 legislative sessions, at least 20 bills were enacted along these lines. Some require voters to show photo identification before casting a ballot. Others limit voter registration, purge voter rolls of those who haven’t shown up in several election cycles, or impose new regulations on mail-in voting—like Georgia’s controversial new law limiting how many ballot drop boxes a county may deploy in advance of an election.

Each of those ideas has its own merits and drawbacks, but the policy debate obscures what’s really going on here. Voter fraud is not a substantial problem.

“There was no evidence of widespread voter fraud,” the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, a conservative group that reviewed the state’s 2020 election returns, reported last year. “In all likelihood, more eligible voters cast ballots for Joe Biden than Donald Trump. We found little direct evidence of fraud, and for the most part, an analysis of the results and voting patterns does not give rise to an inference of fraud.” Audits carried out by state lawmakers in Arizona and Pennsylvania similarly failed to uncover evidence of the far-ranging conspiracy Trump alleged.

That hasn’t stopped GOP lawmakers from pressing ahead, seeking to change the rules of the game for a political advantage.

Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to one-up Republican efforts at the state level by passing a major overhaul of election rules at the federal level. The changes proposed by House Resolution 1 would federalize much of the election process that has always been under the purview of states.

Key components of the sprawling bill include implementing a national voter registration system, requiring at least 15 consecutive days of early voting, and imposing new disclosure requirements for political advertising and candidates. (Future presidents will not be able to emulate Trump by keeping their tax returns secret, for example.)

In January, Biden called on Senate Democrats to blow up the filibuster in order to pass those changes, which cleared the House in a party-line vote late last year. So far, that hasn’t happened. He also doubled down on the bipartisan effort to undermine electoral legitimacy by preemptively claiming that the 2022 midterms might be unfair unless Democrats’ preferred policies were enacted. “The increase and the prospect of being illegitimate is in direct proportion to us not being able to get these…reforms passed,” the president said. (The White House later clarified that Biden was “absolutely not predicting that the 2022 elections would be illegitimate.”)

Republicans control a majority of statehouses. Democrats control Congress. Each is trying to impose its own will on elections, as American political parties have for well over a century. The increased politicization of not just elections but the rules governing elections will only deepen the distrust and paranoia already driving American politics.

A few members of Congress are focused on fixing what nearly went off the rails on January 6. In July, a group of nine Republicans and seven Democrats introduced the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Act, which would amend key parts of the law passed in the wake of the 1876 election. The proposal is a rarity in Congress: a specific solution to a specific problem. It would remove much of the ambiguity that the Eastman memo sought to exploit by clarifying that the vice president “shall have no power to solely determine, accept, reject, or otherwise adjudicate or resolve disputes over the proper list of electors, the validity of electors, or the votes of electors.” It would also require at least a fifth of the Senate and a fifth of the House to object to vote counts before an official objection could be lodged.

Since GOP gubernatorial nominees in Arizona, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have already said they would not have certified Biden’s win, the bill’s passage is even more urgent. Among its provisions, the bipartisan reform would allow federal judges to intervene if a state’s legislature refused to certify a winner in a presidential election or if the state certified the losing candidate as the winner.

That might help, but the system likely cannot survive if a major American party coalesces around the idea that the only legitimate elections are ones that it wins.

Seriously addressing that problem will be more difficult. But reforms aimed at giving voters more choices, or ensuring that elections reward candidates that better reflect the preferences of the median voter, might help.

Alaska and Maine, for example, are experimenting with new primary systems that attempt to limit the power of party bases in choosing candidates for the general election. Maine now uses ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to list their first, second, and third place choices. That promises to open up new axes of competition for votes.

In Alaska, a top-four primary system is now being used, allowing the four candidates with the most votes in the primary round to advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. That narrows the field, but it makes it harder for a fractional candidate to eliminate the alternatives.

Under the old primary rules, someone like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R–Alaska) might not have survived after voting to convict Trump for his actions on January 6. Or she might have voted differently in that instance to preserve her political future. As it stands, she is the favorite for reelection this year.

That might make it seem like Alaska’s reforms are another win for incumbency, but that’s probably not true. By guaranteeing four spots in the general election for the top primary vote-getters, Alaska’s reforms naturally throw open the door to candidates from outside the R/D duopoly, thus undermining the major parties’ efforts to limit political competition.

These sorts of changes might help turn down the temperature of politics. Federalizing the rules governing elections, on the other hand, would only crank up these winner-take-all battles, which are as corrosive as they are exhausting. If we’re going to tinker with the system, it’s better for states to experiment with potential fixes rather than trust one national party to implement high-stakes changes. Big partisan plans to “save” democracy are often little more than a false face for the urge to control it.

What makes a legitimate electoral system? Ideally, it should emulate a market: sometimes chaotic, full of competing choices, reflecting the ever-changing wills of the participants. That means some things have to be considered out of bounds. One person should not get to determine outcomes. Participants should not be excluded based on arbitrary criteria such as race and gender. Cartels that limit electoral competition should be rooted out. And violence is never an appropriate way to get what you want.

De-escalation would also be helped by removing some of the mighty powers that the presidency wields: Make the prize less seductive, and the contest will become less important.

Tweaks to the electoral process won’t eliminate the resentment and paranoia that have been driving American politics in increasingly irrational directions. The dark side of the pursuit of political power isn’t going away. But there are cracks in the system that we can patch, and that can reduce the damage that the dark side can do.

The post American Elections Are a Mess, and They Always Have Been appeared first on Reason.com.

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