Month: September 2022

Despite uber-hawkish signaling from Fed vice-chair Brainard, US equity markets are bouncing today (after 7 straight down days for the Nasdaq), once again prompting the same-old-same-old remarks that “is this the low?” or “is The Fed ready to Pivot?” or some mixed version of the two (despite oil prices plunging like there’s a global recession imminent)…

The problem is – as BofA’s Technical Strategist Stephen Suttmeier remarks in his latest note, there has simply not been enough capitulation yet for a low to be in…

The S&P 500 (SPX) tested 3900, which is where the downside count for the August head and shoulders top, 61.8% retracement of the June-August rally and the July breakout and retest zone converge.

Tactical sentiment from the 5-day put/call and 3-month VIX vs VIX suggests angst and not capitulation.

This is a risk entering the challenging month of September and suggests that 3900 may not hold.

But some breadth indicators are tactically oversold…

But, if 3900 gives way to bearish pressure, the SPX does not have support until the late May low near 3810. The late June into mid July lows offer the next support at 3738-3712, but a break below the 61.8% retracement at 3899.84 would increase the risk for a full retracement back to the June YTD low at 3636.

Suttmeier’s comments support what Savita Subramanian said last week, “wait for more signs” before buying the big dip.

Normally, today’s Beige Book would be bad news – if modestly for Democrats and the Biden administration – as it confirmed what everyone knows, namely that the US economy is stagnating at beast, and slowing in reality. However, with bad news now widely viewed as great by a market starved for anything that will accelerate the coming recession – as it means the Fed’s tightening campaign will be cut prematurely short – the fact that according to the Fed, economic activity was downgrade to “Stagnating” – or “unchanged” – since July’s “modest expansion”, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening, with home sales falling in all twelve Districts and residential construction remained constrained as “residential loan demand was weak amid elevated mortgage interest rates”, was clearly just the bullish news markets wanted.

But while the slowdown in the economy was good, the outright “moderation in price levels” in nine of 12 districts, while the “outlook for future economic growth remained generally weak, with contacts noting expectations for further softening of demand over the next six to twelve months” was positively great, and just the catalyst that spoos needed to blast off to session highs.

Elsewhere, manufacturing was mixed, as supply chain bottlenecks continuing to constrain activity in some locations, while labor markets remained tight but showed some signs of softening amidst improved worker availability (suggesting the next JOLTS report will be a doozy), with moderation in wage expectations. Still, employers planned to provide end-of-year pay raises to their workers, although expectations for the pace of wage growth varied across industries and Districts.

Some more details from today’s Beige Book, which among other things, used some version of “slow” no less than 74 times and just shy of the highest for the cycle, with just July’s 75 higher.

Overall economic activity

• Overall economic activity was unchanged, on balance, since early July, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening.
• Most Districts reported steady consumer spending as households continued to trade down and to shift spending away from discretionary goods and toward food and other essential items.
• Auto sales remained muted across most Districts, reflecting limited inventories and elevated prices. Hospitality and tourism contacts highlighted overall solid leisure travel activity with some reporting an uptick in business and group travel.
• Manufacturing activity grew in several Districts, although there were some reports of declining output as supply chain disruptions and labor shortages continued to hamper production.
• Despite some reports of strong leasing activity, residential real estate conditions weakened noticeably as home sales fell in all twelve Districts and residential construction remained constrained by input shortages.
• Commercial real estate activity softened, particularly demand for office space.
• Loan demand was mixed; while financial institutions reported generally strong demand for credit cards and commercial and industrial loans, residential loan demand was weak amid elevated mortgage interest rates.
• Nonfinancial services firms experienced stable to slightly higher demand. Demand for transportation services was mixed and reports on agriculture conditions across reporting Districts varied.
• While demand for energy products was robust, production remained constrained by supply chain bottlenecks for critical components.
• The outlook for future economic growth remained generally weak, with contacts noting expectations for further softening of demand over the next six to twelve months.

Labor Markets

• Employment rose at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts.
• Overall labor market conditions remained tight, although nearly all Districts highlighted some improvement in labor availability, particularly among manufacturing, construction, and financial services contacts.
• Moreover, employers noted improved worker retention, on balance.
• Wages grew across all Districts, although reports of a slower pace of increase and moderating salary expectations were widespread.
• Employers in several Districts reported giving midyear and off-cycle raises to offset higher living costs, and many noted that offering bonuses, flexible work arrangements, and comprehensive benefits were deemed necessary to attract and retain workers.
• Looking ahead, employers planned to provide end-of-year pay raises to their workers, but expectations for the pace of wage growth varied across industries and Districts.

Prices

• Price levels remained highly elevated, but nine Districts reported some degree of moderation in their rate of increase.
• Substantial price increases were reported across all Districts, particularly for food, rent, utilities, and hospitality services.
• While manufacturing and construction input costs remained elevated, lower fuel prices and cooling overall demand alleviated cost pressures, especially freight shipping rates.
• Several Districts reported some tapering in prices for steel, lumber, and copper.
• Most contacts expected price pressures to persist at least through the end of the year.

Despite all the hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing about lower asset prices – and “won’t someone do something?” – Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns that the recent impulse tightening in global Financial Conditions (largely via US Dollar and Real Rates) likely will not stop until one or more of the following three events unfold:

1) Fed flip-flops – data allows Powell to signal a policy pivot without reminding markets of the 70s on-again-off-again FUBAR (not happening yet – The Fed desires this financial conditions tightening until inflation is on clear path towards target);

2) China stops playing “patty-cake” with negative RMB fixes (digitals at 7.00 in CNH gonna trade imminently, it seems) and instead TRULY eases with larger, more substantial stimulus and Credit pumping to improve fundamentals—but only without ZCS, which is stifling any chance at recovery; and / or

3) Japan (BoJ / MoF / FSA) caves and adjusts YCC or intervenes in Yen.

Analyzing each of the above, McElligott notes that the Timiraos piece this morning has enormous implications – because of his “Fed Whisperer” profile, it effectively now “locks in” a 75bps hike, as it renders “only” a 50bps hike as a DE FACTO “EASING,” where the financial conditions move off the back of “only” a 50bps hike would be massively counterproductive for the Fed’s “Tight FCI”goals (as Real Yields and USD would plummet, Credit Spreads gap tighten and Equities Vol would get crushed).

So don’t hold your breath for Scenario 1 to stop the ‘pain’.

As far as China is concerned, especially regarding the current “weak” PBoC attempts to manage the RMB via the fix (as CNH sits at the 7.00 threshhold), Nomura FX Research’s Craig Chan notes:

Today’s fixing error of -505pips is the largest since October 2019. Although the market’s reaction was limited (there has been continuous negative errors since 25 August that we judge of significance; 10 sessions), it sustains concerns that the PBoC is acting against RMB depreciation.

Analyzing previous periods with significant consecutive negative errors (2019), negative errors do not stop USD/RMB from moving higher. An improvement in fundamentals is required (Figure 1).

In May 2019, there were multiple errors of over -100pips, as RMB weakened on news that the US is raising tariffs on Chinese imports (Trump Tweet, 6 May; announcement, 10 May). Despite the errors, USD/CNY headed higher.

In August-October 2019, there were large negative errors regularly exceeding -500pips.  Despite the -593pip error on 6 August, USD/CNY continued to head higher. It only started to decline from November 2019, as the phase one trade deal discussion started. This change in the environment eventually led to a multi-year outperformance of CNH versus USD and on a basket basis.

Currently, the environment is not conducive for RMB, and we reiterate our view to be long USD/CNH (we believe a break above 7.0 is imminent; year-end target: 7.2).

Therefore – don’t expect China to bailout your NFLX calls anytime soon.

And so finally, across the ocean to Japan, global market stress is particularly evident in Asian FX in recent days with The Asian Dollar Index is melting down to fresh 19 year lows in standard crisis form…

And we currently see $Yen now accelerating higher again towards the 145 level (!), despite FinMin Suzuki stepping-up comms – using the phrase “one-sided” for the first time since 2018.

McElligott notes that rate-differentials remain a large part of the story…

Technically speaking, the long-term view remains for a rise towards 180 as JPY resolves higher from the multi-decade base.  Nearer-term, the rise is nearing the 1998 high at 147.66 and this could invite a pause to the rally.

Regarding the Yen weakness and intervention / policy-adjustment risk (as $Yen pushes towards 145 in another 2 yen 1d move), Nomura FX Research’s Goto-San notes that we are now approaching the level that prompted a joint currency intervention by the US and Japan in June 1998.

However, based on verbal jawboning yesterday, we do not think JPY buying intervention is likely in the near term. We do not expect the BOJ to adjust its monetary policy at the September meeting due to JPY weakness as well.

We will monitor the reaction of policymakers to the acceleration of JPY weakness but, in the near term, if there are no changes in policymakers’ stance, the risk of USD/JPY reaching 145 remains.

Fed’s Chair Powell’s speech this Thursday, as well as US CPI next week, are key event risks. Into year-end, we still expect the USD/JPY appreciation trend to inflect and weaken towards 130.

So – Japan is not expected to save the world here any times soon either.

That’s three strikes against any short-term relief from tightening global financial conditions and McElligott warns that CTA- and options-driven acceleration- and reversal- points are critical to understand as the speed of macro movements accelerates.

Authored by Caden Pearsen via The Epoch Times,

Project Veritas on Tuesday released a video of a New York City education official admitting to hiring practices that discriminate against teachers who don’t align with far-left or progressive values.

Todd Soper, an assistant principal for grades K–4 at the New York City Department of Education’s Neighborhood Charter School in Harlem, unwittingly divulged information about the city’s hiring practices to an undercover reporter from Project Veritas.

“We have very specific questions … if people don’t answer that question right, they are just an automatic not hire,” Soper told the undercover reporter.

The video is the third in a series called “The Secret Curriculum,” which sets out to expose efforts to indoctrinate children with socialist ideology.

A teacher who makes a “well intentioned” statement that they are “colorblind” or who believes all men are equal “wouldn’t get hired,” according to Soper.

“If they [candidates] say that diversity is about—if they say something that lends itself to be colorblind, which could happen, like, ‘Oh, it’s like, you know, like everyone is equal.’ Those things that are well-intentioned statements, but they’re missing the depth of understanding of how the intersections of our identity live out in the world. So that person wouldn’t get hired,” Soper said.

One teacher, who left a school because she “didn’t want to teach Black Lives Matter” ideology to her students, “would’ve probably been fired eventually just based off of mindset,” according to Soper.

“Our students’ lives matter based on the color of their skin, and how that intertwines into the context of the world,” Soper said. “So, if you’re not willing to embrace fully that aspect of our students—and that means talking openly about race and talking about injustices in the world—then I don’t know if you’re going to be able to fully fulfill your [teacher] responsibilities.”

‘Conversations Deepen as the Kids Get Older’

The apparent teacher hiring prejudices extend to viewpoints on gender and sexuality.

Soper described the department’s “way to start” instilling concepts valued by progressives into the minds of 5- and 6-year-old children, such as LGBT and gender ideology.

“We have always and will continue to embrace diversity on all levels. So, the same way we embrace identities that are based off of ethnicity, skin tone and gender, we also embrace orientation,” Soper said.

“Like for kindergarten, for Pride month, we got—every kid had a mirror and we talked about—a read aloud about an animal, or about a boy that said he wanted to be a mermaid. It’s a way to start, like, ‘You should be whoever you feel like you should be.’ That was kind of the message of [the] read aloud.”

The classroom instruction starts off simple when children are aged 5 or 6, but teachers will facilitate deeper discussions once children are in the fourth grade, the NYC school official noted.

“It’s delicate, right? So, in kindergarten and first grade, they are 5 and 6—but I think we start with the umbrella theme of: ‘Embrace who you are. You have to love who you are, and each part of you is beautiful, whatever you feel,’” Soper said.

“As kids get older and the idea of gender becomes more salient, which happens more towards fourth grade … the conversations deepen as the kids get older.”

On Sept. 2 Project Veritas released a video which showed a Manhattan private school administrator complaining to an undercover reporter about “horrible” white students who have been pushing back against the leftist ideology she has been using her position to promote.

At the end of August, the outlet exposed another assistant principal, from Greenwich, who said that Catholic teachers would never be hired, while current liberal staff were sneaking “a Democratic message” into their lessons.

The Epoch Times contacted Soper for comment.

Back in late March, when USDJPY was at 121,  we warned that the “Yen Was At Risk Of “Explosive” Downward Spiral With Kuroda Trapped… And Why China May Soon Devalue“, and since then the yen has… well, see for yourselves:

In short, we were right.

Having been in freefall for months, due to the “impossible dilemma” facing the BOJ which can’t have i) a stable currency and ii) yield curve control at the same time, the BOJ has clearly picked an interest rate cap instead of intervening in the yen, and containing the record freefall in the Japanese currency which is set for its worst annual drop on record – the yen this morning plunged as low as 144.99, the lowest level since 1998 and there is no end in sight to the drop.

Furthermore, and just to make it very clear that the BOJ sees nothing wrong with the precipitous drop in the yen which makes Japan seem like a B-grade emerging market, overnight the BOJ said it would buy 550BN yen of 5-10 year bonds at the latest scheduled operation, up from 500BN previously to protect the YCC yield caps; as Goldman notes, “BOJ is really the odd man out in global policy and it seems the market is piling on pressure into the yen ahead of the BOJ meeting at the end of this month.”

To be sure, the ongoing crash in the yen is not exactly shocking and is a result of Japan’s widening yield and policy divergence with the US. Still, the move which could unleash an inflationary shock across the otherwise sleepy, deflationary and demographically doomed islands, has prompted politicians to intervene if only verbally, and overnight, Japan’s top spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno said he was concerned about recent rapid, one-sided moves in yen and the government would need to take necessary action if these movements continue.  

“We’re concerned about the rapid and one-sided moves being seen recently in foreign exchange markets,” Matsuno said at a press conference in Tokyo adding that “the government will continue to watch forex market moves with a high sense of urgency, and take necessary responses if this sort of move continues.”

Of course, it’s not just the yen that is getting demolished: with the Bloomberg dollar index hitting another, and another, and another all time high day after day with the Fed clearly oblivious of the impact its supertighte monetary policy is having on the world…

…  it was China’s yuan that also got hammered overnight, and with the offshore currency trading just shy of 7.00, it forced the PBOC to scramble and stem the currency depreciation with a yuan fixing that was set at a record 454 pips stronger than the average estimate!

The good news is that as Bloomberg’s Simon Flint notes, the yuan tends to be rather dull after big gaps between offshore levels and the fix. To wit: “historical experience is that the yuan stabilizes after a similarly high premium is hit. Selecting for days with a similar (average) premium, I find 78 individual days when this occurred and more than 20 clusters since Bloomberg started to collect fixing consensus data. The average change in USD/CNH and CNH-CFETS was less than 0.1% one day, five days and 21 days after this premium was hit. It seems like a combination of the PBOC’s ability to pick tops in the dollar (as implied by stability in CFETS) and their resistance to appreciation is sufficient to stop the rot. Furthermore, the maximum range of outcomes over these periods is narrower than the series average. Of course, this episode may not be “average”. PBOC resistance has hit record breaking levels, suggesting a greater disconnect that the premium alone indicates.”

The bad news is that according to Goldman, it is only a matter of time before we trade through 7.00, for one simple reason: the collapse in China’s trade demands it and the export data in particular is a concern as the large trade surplus had been one of the main pushbacks to USDCNH going higher (the August surplus declined to 79.3BN vs 101BN last month). As Goldman concludes, “At this juncture it seems inevitable that China will have to accept a weaker currency to support trade/growth.“

For those who missed it, overnight China reported that export growth slowed more than expected in August, as the entire world careens into a recession. Specifically, China’s export growth dropped to +7.1% Y/Y in August, well below consensus expectations of a 13% increase and a sharp drop from the 18.0% in July. Import growth decelerated to +0.3% Y/Yin August, also missing the consensus estimate of 1.1%, and down from 2.3% in July.

According to Goldman, the large deceleration of year-over-year export growth was partially driven by a high base last August, when the adverse impact from Typhoon In-fa unwound. Trade surplus in August fell to US$79.4bn on weaker-than-expected exports.

That said – when setting the stage for a 7.00 yuan print – Goldman says that it isn’t such a big deal, and explains why:

In Aug 2019, when USDCNY first traded above 7, the PBoC issued comment that “7 is not the age of man”, by which they meant it is not a number from which there is no return. The PBoC has made it clear in the press conference earlier this week that China’s monetary policy is mainly serving domestic purpose and they still have ample room. The RMB weakness is mainly due to USD strength, with RMB outperforming non-USD majors and so far there has not been meaningful spillover impact from currency depreciation on other Chinese assets (SHCOMP has been outperforming SPX of late). Another indicator to look at is onshore 1m risk reversal, which came off the highs. All these suggest there is not much to worry onshore about the PBoC allowing USDCNY to trade above 7.0 amid continued USD strength.

All of the above is why Goldman has shifted its USDCNH target to 7.20 area.

But perhaps an even bigger question is how China will react to the absolute monkeyhammering that the yen has taken in recent months, and as Albert Edwards noted back in March, maybe China will react just like they did in August 2015 when the PBoC devalued: “Back then persistent yen weakness had dragged down other competing regional currencies and left the renminbi overvalued.”

Wait, yen weakness leading to China devaluation? According to Edwards, that indeed was the sequence: as he shows in the chart below, the super weak yen of 2013-15, by driving down other competing Asian currencies, ultimately led us to the August 2015 renminbi devaluation.

Fast forward to today when the aggressive relentless easing by the BoJ – which is terrified of losing control over the JGB curve – comes at a time when the PBoC has resolutely refused to join the global tightening posture and instead is shifting towards an easier stance (after all, China has an imploding property sector it must stabilize at any cost).

Edwards concluded that the one thing to watch out for, especially in the current febrile geopolitical environment, is if China once again is ‘forced’ to devalue because of the weak yen. Economists will tell you that cutting interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio (RRR- r/h chart below) is neutralized when you have a strong currency.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

As someone who is skeptical of monetary policy and that looks at economics and markets through an Austrian lens, there are two perfunctory phrases I have heard Keynesians constantly rattle off, non-stop, for the last decade.

The phrase “even a broken clock is right twice a day” is an idiom for someone who constantly gets things wrong, only to very rarely get something right. “Crying wolf” is a phrase that refers to the lesson of not causing a panic or calling for help when it isn’t necessary. The juxtaposition of the two in the title is an homage to my favorite proverb-bending, Tourette’s-sporting movie bartender, Gerard Parkes, from The Boondock Saints.

Keynesian cheerleaders who use these phrases – the same ilk who happily tune in to watch financial media sniff the ass of whatever Fed member happens to be offering up their special brand of paid speech farts that day – use them to parry critics of their monetary theories like they’re drowning and these words will somehow conjure up oxygen.

Of course, under the shallow veneer of arrogance and hubris cast forth every time someone utters one of these two phrases, lies a small sliver of worry. It isn’t as though Keynesians can’t understand what Austrian economists are arguing – in fact, modern monetary theory is something of an over-understanding of economics – they just choose to ridicule it. And they likely can’t help but wonder in the back of their minds if these dumbed down “fringe” financial conspiracy theorists are on to something.

Economic academics, Keynesians and Modern Monetary Theorists have tricked themselves into thinking that because they have the capacity to learn the complex jargon of their faux ideologies, that the entire field of economics, and all of the basic laws that govern it, somehow become a malleable, ethnocentric Play-Doh that they can twist, bend and finesse to their needs.

In other words, they think they have it all figured out.

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“Some of the biggest cases of mistaken identity are among intellectuals who have trouble remembering that they are not God.” – Thomas Sowell

The Austrian school represents a return to basics and reality for economics.

For Keynesians, the Austrian school is a check coming due for a meal that they were told they could eat perpetually – and have been for decades – without paying for.

Austrian economics may not be the total antithesis of everything that they learned in school, but the further off the path we veer – $30 trillion in debt, unlimited quantitative easing, blowing out the money supply, trying to sanction countries replete with resources and productive capacity – the more Keynesians feel they have to justify their logic, and the more that small sliver of worry grows ever so slightly larger in the back of their heads.

I mean, how else do you explain Paul Krugman constantly taking to Twitter to try and justify himself? Here’s an incomprehensible thread he published this weekend to explain another, self-described “incomprehensible” thread from the day prior.

His Tweets are like those browser windows that replicate and pop up again every time you try to close out of one – except that instead of trying to navigate your way off a porn site, Krugman’s Twitter is caught up in a far more grotesque self-fulfilling circle jerk, an intellectual masturbatory exploration of useless jargon, models and inane musings that could easily double as the torturous jingles played over loud speakers at Guantanamo during “advanced interrogation techniques”.

But that’s how it goes: Austrians warn of a coming reality check while Keynesians do…well, whatever the hell Krugman is doing.

Every time Keynesian economists and the Fed figure out a new way to manipulate numbers, economic variables or definitions to their advantage, they feel even more empowered to cast aspersions onto those who suggest day of reckoning will eventually come.

“A broken clock is right twice a day!” “How long are you going to cry wolf?”

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Therein lies some of the misunderstanding about these two sayings.

Keynesians think they are making great points every time they point out that Austrians only get things right once in a while.

“Sure Peter Schiff predicted the housing crisis, but he also said gold would be going to $5000! He’s an idiot that only gets things right once in a while,” they’ll say.

But the truth is that the general argument being made by Austrian economists is that the whole fucking charade is going to come to an end at some point. At that point, there will be no quick fix, there will be no jargon, there will be no debt jubilee and there will be no more Band-Aids in the Fed’s quiver.

Peter Schiff often says it’s like a man biding his time at the poker table as hands come and go. The Keynesians may have most of the chips now, but at the end of the day, if he plays his one big hand right, he believes he’ll have them all.

Lest we forget that politicians and economists generally have to learn the hard way. After all, they don’t predict or acknowledge recessions or depressions ahead of time or as they’re happening, and, either through ignorance or purposeful manipulation, they never really seem to have a single negative word of criticism about the path that they are on.

In some respects, it’s even more ironic because these two phrases about only rarely getting things right could be turned around and pointed right back at the Keynesians: What happened to “transitory” inflation? What happened to the idea that low inflation was the problem? What happened to saying that subprime housing was contained in 2008? Are stocks ever overvalued? Does Neel Kashkari really believe that we can print infinite amounts of money with no consequences?

Surely, if roles were reversed and financial media was littered with Austrian sycophants, perhaps Keynesians would be cast as the outsiders. But as we all know, this isn’t the case – which brings us to where we are right now.

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No matter how much the government and the Federal Reserve try to downplay what’s occurring right now economically in the United States, there should be absolutely no doubt about it: we have never experienced a situation like the one we are in right now in modern history:

• Inflation is occurring at a brutalizing rate that, if measured by 1970 standards, would likely be the highest or near the highest inflation in the country’s history

• We just conducted another monetary policy “experiment” wherein we printed more money over the course of two years than we had in all of the years combined prior to them

• Our country’s productive capacity is severely crippled and the White House is waging a war on energy at a time when we have an energy shortage

• We are standing at stark odds with Russia and China economically, more than we have in many decades. They are exploring their own reserve currency.

• Equities are almost the most egregiously valued that they’ve been in their history, as measured by Shiller PE and market cap/GDP

• With over $30 trillion in debt, we have just hiked interest rates at the quickest clip in decades

Examining this list, even an elementary school student could tell you that we may be on the verge of a shit sandwich the likes of which this country has never seen before. Yet, we continue to have ticky-tacky discussions about inflation coming down a couple tenths of a percent or jobs numbers slightly beating expectations.

In a lot of respects, given how wild the circumstances are, it’s fascinating to see people pretty much acting as though it is business as usual for our country.

I think that’s the furthest thing from the truth. The reality of the situation is that it doesn’t appear market participants, politicians or even the Fed understand what a perfect storm the above variables could be creating. This is why I can’t help but laugh when people call me a “broken clock” or say that I’m “crying wolf”.

The thing is: I don’t mind being wrong. In fact, I hope I am wrong. But while some may think it takes bold ignorance to continue suggesting that there will be an Austrian reckoning coming to the economy and markets, such an ignorance pales in comparison to the ignorance necessary to pretend as though everything is normal.

The lesson about not crying wolf makes sense: you don’t want to cause a panic when it isn’t necessary – I agree with that.

But given the unique and unprecedented circumstances unfolding right now in the United States, what the hell are you supposed to do when the wolves are, in fact, looming large right outside of our door?

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