Rep. Adam Schiff Seeks Dianne Feinstein’s Senate Seat


Rep. Adam Schiff

California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff announced today he’s going to be running for Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat in 2024, a declaration made slightly awkward by the fact that she has not yet announced plans to retire.

Feinstein, 89, has been serving in the Senate since 1992. (She’s part of America’s stagnant gerontocracy.) Some California Democrats have been pushing for her to retire for years, and concerns about her mental fitness and memory have increased as she’s gotten older. Nevertheless, she said in 2022 that she had no plans to resign from her current term and won’t announce whether she’ll seek reelection until 2024.

That Schiff could be seen as a young successor at the near-retirement age of 62 is itself rather hilarious. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, 76, has also said she is considering a run for the seat. By comparison, California Rep. Katie Porter, who announced plans to run for the seat earlier this month, is but a child at the tender age of 49.

While anything can happen, it does seem likely that Feinstein will announce in 2024 she will not be running again. A source told NBC News that Schiff had met with Feinstein to tell her his plans before the public announcement. When Feinstein ran for reelection back in 2018, she wasn’t challenged by any serious candidates, despite being urged to step aside. She faced then-Democratic State Sen. Kevin de León (thanks to California’s “jungle primary,” where voters choose from all the candidates and the top two advance, Californians had only two Democrats to choose from in the November election) and handily trounced him.

Now that members of Congress are actually throwing their hats in the ring, it’s all a bit different. Lee, Porter, and Schiff all have federal records to run on, and Schiff’s name is inevitably connected to the failed attempt to impeach President Donald Trump in 2020. It’s easy to imagine him running on that record—it has given him more name recognition than he would have had otherwise, and it cost him his seat on the Intelligence Committee once the Republicans gained control of the House.

As for his actual record, he’d be succeeding Feinstein in not just her seat but also a number of her authoritarian politics. Feinstein was often quite happy to advance the power of the state over its own citizens. In her role on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, she was happy to defend the power of the federal government to secretly snoop on citizens without warrants (unless her staff was the target). She has helped craft bills to undermine encryption, threatening the security of all our data and privacy, all to make it easier for the government to access our information. She is on the record arguing for the federal government to take a firm hand in censoring what is and is not allowed on social media platforms, even threatening platforms that she and other lawmakers would “do something” if platforms didn’t rein in Russian attempts to influence Americans’ votes.

In the House, Schiff’s record is not so terribly different. He has been attempting to pressure Twitter to censor hate speech, and according to a piece by Matt Taibbi from the Twitter Files, his staff regularly reached out to Twitter management to try to get tweets they didn’t like removed, including a parodic edit of an image of President Joe Biden. Schiff is happy to engage in “jawboning,” using his power to influence private platforms to censor speech in ways that would be unconstitutional if he were to do it himself.

Schiff has been criticized by civil rights groups for undermining attempts to reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act so that Americans have stronger protections from secret snooping from the feds. They also criticized him in wake of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot for sponsoring a bill to add more criminal punishments for those arrested and charged with domestic terrorism. He actually first introduced the bill in 2019, before the riot, but it was brought up for potential consideration after Biden took office. More than 135 groups signed a letter that warned, “The federal government has no shortage of counterterrorism powers, and these powers have been and will be again used to unjustly target black and brown communities, including Muslim, Arab, Middle Eastern, and South Asian communities, as well as those engaged in First Amendment-protected activities.”

So it’s not a surprise if Schiff attempts to literally follow in Feinstein’s footsteps. He’s been figuratively doing it for years.

The post Rep. Adam Schiff Seeks Dianne Feinstein's Senate Seat appeared first on Reason.com.

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A Historic Refugee Crisis Miscast As a Border Emergency


shadowed figures of two people holding bags walk toward a flying American flag as seen through a hole in a barbed wire fence

President Joe Biden’s administration has made mistakes on immigration policy, but not the ones its critics think. Recent actions, including a parole program for individuals from four countries, are promising and can help overcome the administration’s twin errors: failing to frame the situation at the border as a refugee crisis and continuing some of former President Donald Trump’s enforcement policies at the border.

The United States is experiencing a historic refugee crisis in the Western Hemisphere that has been cast as a “border crisis.” An unprecedented economic collapse and widespread human rights violations caused more than 7.1 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants to leave their country since 2015, with many barely surviving and going to places other than the United States. Nearly 2 million Venezuelans have gone to Colombia and 1.3 million to Peru. Cubans and Nicaraguans have also fled their authoritarian governments in large numbers, and violent gangs are terrorizing Haitians.

The Biden administration shot itself in the foot by conceding to critics that immigration policy success would be measured by the number of Border Patrol “encounters” with migrants. Then, inexplicably, the administration guaranteed border numbers would be vastly inflated by continuing to use Title 42, an immigrant expulsion authority that has masqueraded as a public health order since March 2020. 

Many people mistakenly believe encounters are the same as “apprehensions,” the longstanding Border Patrol statistic. That is not the case. Encounters encompass four different enforcement actions, including expulsions carried out under the Title 42 health authority. That authority was rarely used before March 2020. 

Title 42 has created inaccurate statistics because repeat border crossers generally have not been processed or faced legal consequences other than being returned across the U.S.-Mexico border. As a result, “The number of total encounters overstates the number of unique people attempting to cross the border,” according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Many border crossers are Mexicans seeking work who attempt the northward journey multiple times, as jobs are plentiful in America, but legal work visas are scarce. Because ports of entry have been generally closed to asylum seekers due to Title 42, groups of people seeking protection entered the U.S. unlawfully and presented themselves to Border Patrol agents, further increasing the numbers.

If Title 42 had not been in effect, CBP apprehensions at the southwest border likely would have been about 1.2 million in FY 2021 and below 1.6 million in FY 2022, according to an analysis in an upcoming report by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), of which I am the executive director. (The record for apprehensions was 1.64 million in FY 2000.) The NFAP estimates maintaining Title 42 resulted in approximately 471,000 more encounters at the southwest border in FY 2021 and about 627,500 more in FY 2022.

The Biden administration fell into the trap of letting its opponents define the terms of the debate. After Biden officials decided to stop using Title 42, the Supreme Court ordered the authority to stay in place while it waits to hear arguments on the standing of states trying to force the Biden administration to keep using Title 42.

Arranging care for asylum seekers would have been necessary even with a better metric. However, managing the humanitarian flow would have been easier if the Biden administration had allowed those seeking asylum to apply in an orderly, timed fashion at a lawful port of entry. The administration has tried to correct this with a phone app allowing individuals to receive scheduled appointments at a port. It remains to be seen whether enough people will be allowed to apply daily at ports of entry to make using the app a feasible alternative. Still, the idea is sound. However, less sound is a proposed regulation that would make most individuals ineligible for asylum if they don’t apply at a port of entry.

Providing the legal means of seeking relief by at least partly opening ports of entry and recently establishing parole programs accepting up to 30,000 Venezuelans and others a month (with U.S. sponsors) has reduced illegal entry. “Encounters of Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan non-citizens attempting to cross the southwest border unlawfully has decreased drastically since President Biden announced an expanded parole program for these individuals,” according to Department of Homeland Security statistics released yesterday. “Preliminary numbers from January show that encounters of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans crossing unlawfully between ports of entry at the southwest border declined 97% compared to December.”

More opportunities to work legally in the U.S. and implementing a broad Western Hemisphere refugee program would be reasonable additional steps. Treating the situation at the border as a refugee crisis shifts the focus to helping people.

Members of Congress and others who oppose the Biden administration’s parole program raised no objections to the Trump administration dismantling the U.S. refugee program. They also have not advocated for any other legal way for people escaping oppressive governments to enter America. Without paths to enter lawfully, it is inevitable that more people will cross into the U.S. illegally.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, joined by other Republican attorneys general, filed a lawsuit over the parole program with the same U.S. district judge who blocked another significant Biden administration immigration measure. While the parole program appears to be on sound legal grounds, by halting it for a year or more, the lawsuit could prevent a successful way of providing a legal path for those escaping oppressive conditions.

In addition, the parole program is part of an agreement with Mexico. “Mexico has agreed to accept up to 30,000 migrants each month from the four countries who attempt to walk or swim across the U.S.-Mexico border and are turned back,” reports PBS. “[T]he U.S. can not easily send back people from those four countries for a variety of reasons that include relations with the governments there.”

The Mexican government only accepted more expelled migrants after Biden implemented the parole program. If the parole program is blocked, more individuals would be released into the U.S. rather than returned to Mexico, which those filing the lawsuit would not want. This is a foreign policy tradeoff that should not involve state attorneys general. 

Critics of the increase in CBP encounters argue, without much evidence, that individuals would not come to America if U.S. immigration policy were harsher—in other words, if Biden were more like Trump.

Despite what his supporters assert, Trump’s policies did not reduce illegal immigration or discourage people from applying for asylum. Pending asylum cases rose by nearly 300 percent between FY 2016 and FY 2020 (from 163,451 to 614,751), according to Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. Apprehensions at the southwest border (a proxy for illegal entry) rose more than 100 percent between FY 2016 and FY 2019 (from 408,870 to 851,508). Apprehensions fell for several months at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but by August and September 2020, apprehensions returned to the approximate level of illegal entry for the same months in FY 2019.

Providing individuals with legal ways to work or seek protection in America is the only viable way to reduce illegal immigration. Treating people humanely is not a sign of weakness. Allowing for orderly entry is a smart policy consistent with America’s best tradition as a nation of immigrants and refugees.

The post A Historic Refugee Crisis Miscast As a Border Emergency appeared first on Reason.com.

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Intel Craters After Shockingly Bad Earnings, Catastrophic Guidance

Intel Craters After Shockingly Bad Earnings, Catastrophic Guidance

Just when you thoughts that – even purely on a statistical basis – Intel was overdue for an earnings beat after no less than 9 consecutive earnings disasters in the past 10, moments ago the company managed to do the seemingly impossible and sent its stock plunging yet again after reporting not just big misses for Q4 but worse, guiding catastrophically for Q1.

Here’s what INTC just reported for Q4:

  • Adjusted EPS 10c, down 92% (yes you read that right), and missing both the estimate of 19c and 10c below the company’s own guidance
  • Revenue $14.04 billion, down a massive 28% Y/Y, and missing estimates of $14.49 billion. This was the lowest quarterly revenue since 2016!
    • Client Computing revenue $6.63 billion, missing estimates $7.42 billion
    • Datacenter & AI revenue $4.30 billion, beating estimates $4.05 billion
    • Network & Edge revenue $2.06 billion, missing estimates $2.21 billion
    • Accelerated Computing Systems & Graphics revenue $247 million, beating estimates $203.4 million
    • Mobileye (spun off) revenue $565 million, beating estimates $435.1 million
    • Intel Foundry Services revenue $319 million, estimate $191.5 million
  • Adjusted operating margin 4.3%, badly missing estimates of 7.22%
  • Adjusted gross margin 43.8%, missing estimates 45%

Putting INTC’s cratering revenue in all its glorious visual context:

So yeah, very bad. But not as bad as the company’s dismal Q1 forecast which was catastrophic compared to consensus expectations:

  • Sees adjusted revenue $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, some $3 billion below the estimate of $13.96 billion
  • Sees adjusted loss (yes, loss) per share 15c, badly missing the estimate of an EPS profit of 25c
  • Sees adjusted gross margin 39%, just as badly missing the estimate 45.5%

The outlook reflects the myriad challenges facing Intel, which was attempting to stage a comeback even before the market for personal-computer chips — its main source of revenue — fell into a slump. To get back on track, the company needs computer makers to quickly work through inventory stockpiles and return to ordering components. That would provide Intel with a revenue boost needed to help shore up its finances, which were already stretched by ambitious plans to regain technological leadership within the chip industry.

CEO Pat Gelsinger tried his best to put some lipstick on this particular pig and failed noting that  “despite the economic and market headwinds, he continued to make good progress on our strategic transformation in Q4, including advancing our product roadmap and improving our operational structure and processes to drive efficiencies while delivering at the low-end of our guided range.”

Very low end he should have clarified; he went on “In 2023, we will continue to navigate the short-term challenges while striving to meet our long-term commitments, including delivering leadership products anchored on open and secure platforms, powered by at-scale manufacturing and supercharged by our incredible team.”

But what is even scarier is his admission that he is seeing the largest every inventory correction by customers in Q1, which in turn is impacting the revenue outlook.

Here one wonders just how difficult is it to slash prices and clear out inventories while guiding lower so that the stock actually rises on earnings for once? Apparently very, because as shown below, INTC stock has tumbled on 9 of the past 10 earnings reports!

And with today’s disastrous report which has dragged down the entire semiconductor sector lower, one can make that 10 of the past 11: INTC stock is down more than 8% after hours as the market can’t believe just what a complete mess this company has become. And with today’s wipeout, the stock has vaporized almost all of its 14% in gains in 2023, following an absolutely gruesome 2022.

The catastrophic report has dragged down shares in the entire semiconductor space: Advanced Micro Devices -1.2%, Nvidia -0.8%, Qualcomm -1.6%, The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 0.7%, which had surged in recent weeks on China reopening hopes.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/26/2023 – 16:32

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Satire Or Serious: “Why Didn’t The Unvaccinated Do More To Warn Us?”

Satire Or Serious: “Why Didn’t The Unvaccinated Do More To Warn Us?”

Given the gargantuan level of gaslighting going on globally, it is difficult for us to judge whether the following is the most serious reframing of the entire COVID crisis yet or the most satisfyingly satirical take on the farcical narrative-managers op-eds we’ve ever read.

You decide…

Via iqfy.com,

They knew: why didn’t the unvaccinated do more to warn us?

The unvaccinated knew what we didn’t. Some of them said too little. Most said nothing at all. A lot of blood is now on their hands.

As the world struggles to come to terms with the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, one question that continues to surface is why the unvaccinated didn’t do more to warn us about the potential dangers of being injected.

While well intending citizens lined up, did the right thing, and received their COVID19 vaccinations — now seeming to do more harm than good — their unvaccinated friends stood by and let them do it. Some of them said too little. Some said nothing at all.

Even though they knew what we didn’t.

Our blood is now on their hands.

Those are strong words. But the unvaccinated had access to important information about the potential side effects of vaccines. They knew about the risks of severe allergic reactions, blood clots, and other serious health complications. They knew that vaccines did not immunize us. They knew it wasn’t effective, and that they can cause more harm than good.

They knew all of that, but instead of warning us, the unvaccinated chose to remain silent. They chose to look the other way and not speak out about the potential dangers of vaccines. They let millions of good folks who did the right thing (at the time) fall to death and disease, and many antivaxxers even gloated online about how their coin flip had been the right bet. The more diabolical even urged folks they disagree with to “get boosted.”

It has become all too clear. The silence of the unvaccinated was a dangerous, sociopathic, and irresponsible decision that has had serious consequences for those of us who received the vaccinations.

And silence is, after all, consent.

It is time for the unvaccinated to take responsibility for their actions and to work with the rest of us to find a solution to this crisis. We cannot afford to let their selfishness and lack of action continue to harm our communities. It is time for the unvaccinated to step up and do the right thing.

The unvaccinated should by any moral measuring stick have done more to warn about the potential risks — to help us make informed decisions about our health. And they must now ask us for our forgiveness.

And, hand to heart, we may just give it to them.

Because we are good people. We took those injections because it was the right thing to do — until it wasn’t.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/26/2023 – 16:29

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Bonds & Bullion Drop, Stocks & Dollar Pop On Hawkish Rate-Hike-Odds Shift

Bonds & Bullion Drop, Stocks & Dollar Pop On Hawkish Rate-Hike-Odds Shift

A slew of ‘hard’ data beats (GDP, Dur Goods, New Home Sales) and solid labor market data (Initial Claims), reinforced the odd decoupling between ‘soft’ survey data and the actual macro data from the US economy…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact ‘soft’ survey data has been collapsing as labor market indications have soared in the face of 100s of bps of rate-hikes

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, this ‘good’ news prompted a hawkish response in rate-trajectory expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the hawkish response, all the majors closed green today led by Nasdaq’s surge. The S&P managed gains of around 1% with the late day surge taking Nasdaq up almost 2%…

The Nasdaq managed to rally up to its 200DMA perfectly today…

“Most Shorted” stocks ended lower for the 3rd straight day, despite a second day of rebounding intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

But there were plenty of idiosyncratic equity market drivers today.

XOM hit a new all-time record high today

Source: Bloomberg

…as CVX rallied almost 5% on the back of its White House-snubbing buyback…

Source: Bloomberg

Who could have seen that rally coming?

But it was TSLA that really stole the show, rallying over 10% and overtaking XOM in terms of market cap once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Odd that the mainstream media is not giving us a tick by tick update of just how much Elon Musk’s net worth is rising now?

Source: Bloomberg

MSFT extended yesterday’s manic ramp higher after the earnings pump and dump…

While stocks were bid, bonds were offered with the short-end underperforming marginally (2Y +6bps, 30Y +2.5bps). On the week, only the 30Y yield is lower (-3bps) while the belly is up around 3bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended practically unchanged today, hovering at the May 2022 lows

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin soared higher after the cash equity close last night, up to $23,800, but fell back to its ‘safe space’ around $23,000 during today’s session…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped lower on the day after tagging $1950 (futs) overnight. We note that Gold has been bid at 0900ET every day for last 6 straight days…

Oil prices managed gains today with WTI back above $82 intraday (meaning gas prices at the pump will continue accelerating)…

Finally, how did this happen? Economic risk-reward has flipped to bullish for the euro and bearish for the dollar, thanks to diverging indicators of economic growth. Too much US optimism and an excess of euro pessimism were priced in last year, and as euro-zone gauges surprise positively and US readings underwhelm, the narrative is evolving and the ECB is bolstering the euro case, Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist, said in a note on Wednesday.

Source: Bloomberg

However, what Audrey perhaps is missing is that this is not a decoupling… it’s a lag.. and that means Europe is next for the disappointment.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/26/2023 – 16:01

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Bed Bath & Beyond Craters After Confirming It Received Default Notice From JPMorgan

Bed Bath & Beyond Craters After Confirming It Received Default Notice From JPMorgan

The insatiable BBBY dip-buyers just got some news of the very worst kind.

After the stock enjoyed one of its typically idiotic short squeezes earlier this month which pushed the worthless shares from $1.27 to $6 in a few days courtesy of panicking shorts despite constant warnings that an equity value-vaporizing bankruptcy was imminent, moments ago the company filed a 10-Q in which it confirmed that a bankruptcy is now officially in play after the company received a notice of default from JPMorgan on its credit facility.

According to the filing, “on or around January 13, 2023, certain events of default were triggered under the Company’s Credit Facilities as a result of the Company’s failure to prepay an overadvance and satisfy a financial covenant, among other things.” As a result of the event of default, on January 25, 2023, the administrative agent under the Amended Credit Agreement (JPMorgan) notified the Company that full and immediate repayment of the full facility is due, to wit:

 The Company’s net cash used in operating activities was $307.6 million and $890.0 million for the three and nine months ended November 26, 2022. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $225.7 million as of November 26, 2022. On or around January 13, 2023, certain events of default were triggered under the Company’s Credit Facilities (as defined below) as a result of the Company’s failure to prepay an overadvance and satisfy a financial covenant, among other things. As a result of the continuance of such events of default, on January 25, 2023, the administrative agent under the Amended Credit Agreement notified the Company that (i) the principal amount of all outstanding loans under the Credit Facilities, together with accrued interest thereon, the FILO Applicable Premium (as defined in the Amended Credit Agreement) and all fees (including, for the avoidance of doubt, any break funding payments) and other obligations of the Company accrued under the Amended Credit Agreement, are due and payable immediately, (ii) the Company is required, effective immediately, to cash collateralize letter of credit obligations under the Credit Facilities, and (iii) effective as of January 25, 2023, all outstanding loans and obligations under the Credit Facilities shall bear interest at an additional default rate of 2% per annum. As a result of these events of default, the Company classified its outstanding borrowings under its asset-based revolving credit facility (the “ABL Facility) and its FILO Facility as current in the consolidated balance sheet as of November 26, 2022. The Company’s outstanding borrowings under its ABL Facility and FILO Facility were $550.0 million and $375.0 million, respectively, as of November 26, 2022. In addition, the Company had $186.2 million in letters of credit outstanding under its ABL Facility as of November 26, 2022. The Company also had $1.030 billion in senior notes (excluding deferred financing costs) outstanding as of November 26, 2022. For information regarding the Company’s borrowings, see Note 12.

Unfortunately, there is a problem: BBBY doesn’t have the money JPM is asking for, so it will most likely have to file for bankruptcy instead.

At this time, the Company does not have sufficient resources to repay the amounts under the Credit Facilities and this will lead the Company to consider all strategic alternatives, including restructuring its debt under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company is undertaking a number of actions in order to improve its financial position and stabilize its results of operations including but not limited to, cost cutting, lowering capital expenditures, and reducing its store footprint including related distribution centers. In addition, the Company will continue to seek reductions in rental obligations with landlords in its determination of the appropriate footprint, seek additional debt or equity capital, reduce or delay the Company’s business activities and strategic initiatives, or sell assets. These measures may not be successful.

They won’t be.

The stock, which as noted above was idiotically trading north of $3 (having mercifully cut its most recent short squeeze gains in half), tumbled and was halted for trading twice before some pathological dip buyers couldn’t resist and started bidding it up again.

Of course, for the stock to be trading here suggests there is still some equity “tip” value in the enterprise when even the bonds are trading a 6 cents on the dollar or pure liquidation value. In fact at this rate the bonds will be trading below where the stock is.

In any event, in light of the imminent bankruptcy filing, we found a tweet from 2014 which is perfectly appropriate for the insanity that US capital markets have become.

As for all those who pathologically are still buying every dip int he stock, please stop.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/26/2023 – 15:21

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Louisiana Keeps Over a Quarter of Inmates Detained Past Their Release Dates, DOJ Investigation Finds


hands hanging out of a prison cell

A Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation has revealed that Louisiana prisons and jails routinely incarcerate inmates well past their release dates. This practice is in violation of inmates’ 14th Amendment rights, and it’s costing state taxpayers an estimated $2.5 million each year.

The DOJ has been investigating Louisiana’s well-documented habit of keeping inmates detained past their release dates since 2020. While inmates are legally required to be released once their sentence is complete, over a quarter of inmates in Louisiana are kept imprisoned past their release date.

According to the DOJ, between January and April 2022, 26.8 percent of inmates released from Louisiana Department of Public Safety and Corrections (LDOC) custody were detained past their release date. Overdetained inmates were incarcerated for a median of 29 extra days, and almost a quarter were held for at least 90 days. Such a high rate of overdetention is expensive too. According to the DOJ, during the same period, overdetention cost taxpayers a minimum of $850,000—a sum that stacks up to at least $2.5 million a year.

This problem is seemingly due to systematic incompetence from LDOC officials. According to the investigation, LDOC has a shockingly unorganized method for completing the necessary paperwork to secure an inmate’s release. “LDOC does not have a uniform system for receiving necessary sentencing documents from the Clerks of Court and Sheriff’s offices,” the DOJ’s findings letter reads. “Nor does it establish a standard timeline for the delivery of those documents. LDOC maintains a time-consuming process for calculating release dates, which includes both manual calculations and automated processes using an antiquated data management system.”

Part of the problem can also be attributed to local law enforcement officials. As The New York Times wrote last month, “Louisiana has one of the most overcrowded prison systems in the country, yet parish sheriffs are often reluctant to release people they believe are at high risk of committing new crimes. Some even view inmates housed in local facilities as worth holding onto as free labor.”

Overdetention violates the due process clause of the 14th Amendment, which states that no state shall “deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” The Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit held in 2022 that overdetention of 30 days or more “constitutes a deprivation of due process,” and other circuits have held that even overdetention of hours could be deemed unconstitutional.

“The Constitution guarantees that people incarcerated in jails and prisons may not be detained beyond their release dates, and it is the fundamental duty of the State to ensure that all people in its custody are released on time,” said Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division. “We are committed to taking action that will ensure that the civil rights of people held in Louisiana’s jails and prisons are protected.”

According to the DOJ, Louisiana has been “on notice” of its practice of detaining prisoners past their release dates for over a decade, yet it has “failed to take adequate measures to ensure timely releases of incarcerated individuals from its custody,” leading to such a shockingly high rate of overdetention. “LDOC is deliberately indifferent in its failure to implement adequate policies and adequately train its employees in order to prevent systemic overdetentions,” reads the DOJ’s findings letter.

“There is an obligation both to incarcerated persons and the taxpayers not to keep someone incarcerated for longer than they should be,” said U.S. district attorney Brandon B. Brown in Wednesday’s press release. “This can be costly from a physical and mental standpoint for the incarcerated individual and a waste of money for the taxpayer. Timely release is not only a legal obligation, but arguably of equal importance, a moral obligation.”

The post Louisiana Keeps Over a Quarter of Inmates Detained Past Their Release Dates, DOJ Investigation Finds appeared first on Reason.com.

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A Federal Judge Blocks California’s Ban on Medical Advice That Promotes COVID-19 ‘Misinformation’


A federal judge blocked enforcement of California's ban on medical advice that includes COVID-19 "misinformation."

On Wednesday night, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction against a new California law that makes physicians subject to professional discipline for sharing COVID-19 “misinformation” with their patients. U.S. District Judge William B. Shubb concluded that California’s definition of misinformation is unconstitutionally vague, failing to give doctors fair notice of which conduct the statute covers, which is a basic requirement of due process. That vagueness is especially problematic in this context, Shubb said, because it is apt to have a chilling effect on speech protected by the First Amendment.

A.B. 2098, which took effect on January 1, redefines the “unprofessional conduct” policed by state regulators to include medical advice that promotes “misinformation” about COVID-19, such as “false or misleading information regarding the nature and risks of the virus,” “its prevention and treatment,” and “the development, safety, and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.” The law defines “misinformation” as “false information that is contradicted by contemporary scientific consensus contrary to the standard of care.”

What does that mean? The plaintiffs in Høeg v. Newsom, who include several California doctors represented by the New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA), complained that they had no way of knowing. Shubb agrees, saying the state’s definition of misinformation “fails to provide a person of ordinary intelligence fair notice of what is prohibited” and “is so standardless that it authorizes or encourages seriously discriminatory enforcement.”

The central problem, Shubb says, is that the phrase “contemporary scientific consensus” has no clear meaning, especially in the context of COVID-19, a new disease that has generated conflicting and evolving scientific opinions. “It appears that the primary term at issue—’contemporary scientific consensus’—does not have an established technical meaning in the medical community,” he writes. “Defendants provide no evidence that ‘scientific consensus’ has any established technical meaning.”

Shubb says the law therefore forces doctors to speculate about what that term means:

Who determines whether a consensus exists to begin with? If a consensus does exist, among whom must the consensus exist (for example practicing physicians, or professional organizations, or medical researchers, or public health officials, or perhaps a combination)? In which geographic area must the consensus exist (California, or the United States, or the world)? What level of agreement constitutes a consensus (perhaps a plurality, or a majority, or a supermajority)? How recently in time must the consensus have been established to be considered “contemporary”? And what source or sources should physicians consult to determine what the consensus is at any given time (perhaps peer-reviewed scientific articles, or clinical guidelines from professional organizations, or public health recommendations)? The statute provides no means of understanding to what “scientific consensus” refers.

In practice, politicians tend to define scientific consensus based on the pronouncements of public health agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). But official advice on subjects such as modes of transmission, the merits of universal masking, the utility of cloth masks, the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing the spread of COVID-19 (as opposed to reducing disease severity), and the basis for specific social distancing recommendations has shifted repeatedly over the course of the pandemic. So have treatment practices such as the use of intubation and specific drugs.

“A ‘scientific consensus’ concerning COVID-19 is an illusory concept, given how rapidly the scientific understanding and accepted conclusions about the virus have changed,” Shubb says, citing an expert declaration submitted by the plaintiffs. “The so-called ‘consensus’ has developed and shifted, often within mere months, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic….Certain conclusions once considered to be within the scientific consensus were later proved to be false. Because of this unique context, the concept of ‘scientific consensus’ as applied to COVID-19 is inherently flawed….Because the term ‘scientific consensus’ is so ill-defined, physician plaintiffs are unable to determine if their intended conduct contradicts the scientific consensus, and accordingly ‘what is prohibited by the law.'”

The defendants, who include California Gov. Gavin Newsom and officials at the state medical board, argued that the phrase “contrary to the standard of care” clarifies the definition of misinformation. “This provision is grammatically incoherent,” Shubb notes. “It is impossible to parse the sentence and understand the relationship between the two clauses—’contradicted by contemporary scientific consensus’ and ‘contrary to the standard of care.'”

The defendants claimed “the two elements are entirely separate requirements that each modify the word ‘information,'” Shubb says. “This interpretation is hard to justify. If the Legislature meant to create two separate requirements, surely it would have indicated as [much]—for example, by separating the two clauses with the word ‘and,’ or at least with a comma. Further, the concept of ‘standard of care’ pertains to the nature and quality of treatment that doctors provide or fail to provide. It is thus difficult to accept defendants’ contention that the term ‘standard of care’ modifies the word ‘information.’ By its very nature, the standard of care applies to care, not information.”

Another “equally plausible (or perhaps equally implausible) interpretation,” Shubb notes, “is that any time a doctor’s conduct contradicts the scientific consensus, it is therefore contrary to the standard of care. Such a reading would distort the existing meaning of the term ‘standard of care’ by creating an additional statutory definition in the context of COVID-19.” Even if the state’s interpretation were accepted, he adds, it would fail to clarify what “contemporary scientific consensus” means.

The defendants also argued that misinformation must be “false,” which narrows the definition or at least “provides truthfulness as a defense.” But how is falsity to be determined? If that judgment is based on what the “scientific consensus” supposedly says, it raises the same vagueness issue.

As examples of clearly established scientific propositions, the state cited facts such as “apples contain sugar,” “measles is caused by a virus,” and “Down’s syndrome is caused by a chromosomal abnormality.” Medical advice that denied those facts would clearly be “false information.” In the context of COVID-19, a doctor who warned patients that vaccines contain microchips likewise would be saying something that is demonstrably false.

But where does that leave a doctor who, during a conversation with a patient, questions the scientific basis for the CDC’s masking recommendations or the benefits of vaccination for young, healthy patients who face a very low risk of life-threatening COVID-19 symptoms? Since such issues are much more contentious than the examples cited by the defendants, it is much harder to say that a particular position is “false.”

Assuming that A.B. 2098 is ambiguous, the state said, Shubb should adopt a “narrower construction” that avoids constitutional issues by requiring that misinformation include three elements: It is “false” (however that might be determined), it contradicts the “contemporary scientific consensus” (however that might be defined), and it is “contrary to the standard of care” (a concept that the law seems to redefine). “What defendants propose is not a narrowing or limiting construction at all,” Shubb writes. “Rather, the proposed construction would require the court to essentially ‘[r]ewrite[e] the statute.’ This ‘is a job for the [California] legislature, if it is so inclined, and not for this court.'”

The plaintiffs argued that A.B. 2098 violates their First Amendment rights, a concern that was echoed by two state chapters of the American Civil Liberties Union. Because Shubb concluded that the standard established by A.B. 2098 is unintelligible, he did not directly address that claim. But he notes that “vague statutes are particularly objectionable when they ‘involve sensitive areas of First Amendment freedoms’ because ‘they operate to inhibit the exercise of those freedoms.'” To show standing in this context, “a plaintiff ‘need only demonstrate that a threat of potential enforcement will cause him to self-censor.'”

Shubb’s preliminary injunction does not mean that California cannot discipline doctors accused of “gross negligence,” “repeated negligent acts,” or “incompetence,” which were already covered by the definition of “unprofessional conduct.” But it does mean that California physicians do not have to worry about losing their licenses for candidly expressing their opinions about scientifically contentious issues raised by COVID-19.

In its complaint, the NCLA noted that “physicians who are negligent and commit malpractice (for example, a doctor who advises a patient to inject himself with bleach to treat Covid-19) are already subject to tort lawsuits and disciplinary actions by the Medical Board under existing state law.” A.B. 2098 went further by suggesting that doctors could be disciplined merely for dissenting from the latest CDC recommendations.

When he signed A.B. 2098, Newsom said he was “concerned about the chilling effect other potential laws may have on physicians and surgeons who need to be able to effectively talk to their patients about the risks and benefits of treatments for a disease that appeared in just the last few years.” The implication was that A.B. 2098 would not have such a chilling effect. But as Shubb explains, the law’s amorphous standard is an invitation to second-guess the honest judgments of clinicians, which is bound to encourage self-censorship. “Plaintiffs are put between a rock and a hard place,” the NCLA said, “fearing repercussions for acting in their patients’ best interests by giving them the information Plaintiffs believe their patients need.”

The post A Federal Judge Blocks California's Ban on Medical Advice That Promotes COVID-19 'Misinformation' appeared first on Reason.com.

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Stock Warnings Get Louder With Estimates Falling

Stock Warnings Get Louder With Estimates Falling

By Isabelle Lee, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Investors fretting about the prospects for global earnings growth may want to brace for a long slog this year, and stiff headwinds to equities as a result.

Analysts’ estimates for 2023 profits continue to fall, with major regions showing negative revision momentum, according to research from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff. In the US, for example, sell-side analysts have lowered projections by more than half since September, while the outlook for emerging markets has slumped even more.

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

The upshot is it may be too early for investors to bet on a full-fledge rebound from the pummeling equities took last year, even with China moving past its zero-Covid policies and the Federal Reserve potentially set to end its interest-rate hikes. The concern is that companies still have more pain to absorb as the past year’s jump in borrowing costs ripples through the global economy.
“Global earnings estimates are being cut at an increasingly rapid pace through much of the developed world, threatening to put more pressure on stocks,” the BI strategists wrote.

The S&P 500 Index is headed for the best January since 2019, and the US economy is still expanding, albeit at a slower pace. But even onetime optimists have been questioning whether the world’s biggest economy can achieve a soft landing. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic, for example, said earlier this week that slowing growth is setting the stage for a selloff in stocks. He expects a recession in the US and Europe.

Of the 44 sectors that BI tracks in global markets — 11 each in China, Europe, the US and emerging markets — three quarters have reduced expectations for earnings-per-share growth in 2023, the strategists wrote.

“There still seems to be this broad ubiquitous downgrade that’s occurring across the board,” Wolff said in an interview. “In terms of calling the bottom for these downgrades, it’s difficult to say. But near-term, it’s not showing signs reversing.”

Global markets appear to be at different phases of their respective growth cycles as they rebound from the pandemic — a dynamic that earnings estimates highlight.

For instance, anticipated earnings growth of close to 15% this year in China and India won’t show up in the average for emerging markets because of declines foreseen in Taiwan, South Korea and Latin America, BI said. Europe may see a slight earnings contraction, while the US will likely see earnings growth of roughly 3% — compared with the pre-pandemic pace of 7%, according to BI.

However, all markets face a similar hurdle when it comes to central banks bent on tamping down inflation. Fed officials, for example, have signaled they intend to keep rates elevated even after they eventually stop hiking.

“The lag effects of the Fed’s tightening so far will slow the economy in the second half of 2023 and cause analysts to slash earnings estimates, which ultimately is a headwind for stocks,” Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at Treasury Partners, said in a note.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/26/2023 – 14:40

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Senate GOP “Breakfast Club” Formulating Debt Ceiling Debate Strategy

Senate GOP “Breakfast Club” Formulating Debt Ceiling Debate Strategy

A group of seven Republican Senators have been holding Tuesday “breakfast club” meetings in order to formulate a strategy for the upcoming showdown over the debt ceiling.

Senators Rick Scott, from right, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, Rand Paul and Mike Braun during a news conference at the US Capitol in Washington, on Jan. 25.Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

According to Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN), the group doesn’t actually gather for a meal.

“No breakfast — we’re fiscal conservatives,” he told Bloomberg.

Almost all of the Breakfast Club’s members, including Rick Scott of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah, late last year led an unsuccessful revolt against reelecting GOP leader Mitch McConnell. Like the House’s far-right Freedom Caucus that almost blocked Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, they are a reminder that the party’s populist members aren’t afraid of a high-stakes rebellion.

“There is always a need for leadership,” said breakfast club member Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who added that “If we don’t balance the budget we’ll never get interest rates down, we’ll never get inflation down.

“I think we’ve got to have a legitimate conversation about how do we balance the budget,” said Sen. Scott. “I think we’ve got to have a legitimate conversation about how do we balance the budget,”

The formation of the group marks the first time Senate GOP conservatives have united into a faction since the long-disbanded Tea Party Caucus from over a decade ago – when Cruz and House conservatives huddled in the basement of a now-closed DC restaurant just steps from the Cannon House Office Building while the government was in the middle of a 16-day shutdown which was orchestrated in part by Cruz.

On Wednesday, Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said they’re hoping to work with House conservatives to lead the effort. “And we’re going to hopefully influence what they’re asking for.”

The emergence of the group, which also includes Rand Paul of Kentucky and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, comes as President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats are doubling down on their call for a “clean” debt ceiling. Biden has said it would be a financial “calamity” if the US defaults on its obligations.

McConnell has said spending reductions often are negotiated with debt limit increases, but aggressive moves by some conservative House Republicans to force deep reductions have prompted concerns of a repeat of 2011, when a simmering feud over roiled financial markets and damaged an economic recovery. -Bloomberg

In short, GOP conservatives aren’t going to go quietly into the night.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/26/2023 – 14:20

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