Month: March 2023

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The House of Representatives on Feb. 27 overwhelmingly voted to make manufacturers tell consumers if an Internet-connected device comes with a camera or microphone, with enforcement left to the Federal Trade Commission.

That requirement does not cover certain devices, such as “a telephone (including a mobile phone), a laptop, tablet, or any device that a consumer would reasonably expect to have a microphone or camera.”

A motion to suspend the rules and pass H.R. 538 flew through the chamber with 406 yeas and 12 nays: 201 Democrats and 205 Republicans voted for it, while 12 Republicans voted against it. 15 representatives didn’t vote.

The motion’s opponents include a number of well-known conservative and libertarian lawmakers.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) all voted against it.

The Epoch Times has reached out to those lawmakers to learn why they opposed the motion.

“This is a relatively straightforward bill,” said Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), a supporter of H.R. 538.

“Internet-connected devices are becoming increasingly present in our lives, and it’s important for people to understand what they’re buying.”

Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), another supporter of the measure, told his colleagues about the rapid speed and massive scale of the Internet of Things (IoT) revolution in consumer products.

“Today, the average American home has 11 Internet of Things, or IoT, devices,” Pallone said.

Yet, Pallone’s numbers appear to be out of date.

A recent Deloitte survey suggests the number of Internet-connected items is even higher, at 22 smart devices per home as of 2022.

Read more here…

Zelensky officials are now openly talking about a possible ‘strategic pullback’ from the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut. This comes after Zelensky himself said he’s not ready to order a continued defense of the city at all costs. By all accounts both sides are suffering huge casualties, but Russia has the superior artillery fire, which has been sustained around the clock, also as Kremlin forces have the city almost completely surrounded. According to The Hill:

A Ukrainian presidential adviser on Tuesday said troops may “strategically pull back” from the town of Bakhmut, the focus of intense and brutal fighting for the past few months.

Alexander Rodnyansky told CNN the Ukrainian army has not yet pulled out of the city, but Kyiv may soon decide the cost of holding Bakhmut “outweighs the benefits.”

“Our military is obviously going to weigh all of the options,” the Zelensky aide told CNN. “So far they’ve held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back because we’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing.”

President Zelensky has also admitted defense of the town has proven “most difficult” for his forces. However, in rare comments, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said Ukrainian forces continue putting up a fierce resistance on Wednesday. So far they’ve been throwing an immense amount of manpower into Bakhmut, he said. 

“The Ukrainian army is throwing extra reserves into Artyomovsk and trying to hold the town with all their strength,” Prigozhin said, using the Russian name for Bakhmut, in an audio message published by Wagner’s press service. “Tens of thousands of Ukrainian army fighters are putting up furious resistance. The bloodiness of the battles is growing by the day.”

Indeed recent footage from inside the city shows a war-torn wasteland of rubble…

Views of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast

📹https://t.co/ciSbTrHYCk pic.twitter.com/sxTJYgkdnw

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 1, 2023

As we reported previously, a retired American Marine fighting in Ukraine told ABC News this week that the frontlines are a “meat grinder” where soldiers survive an average of “four hours.”

In a Tuesday address Zelensky said something similar of the Russian side: “Russia does not count people at all, sending them to constantly storm our positions,” and acknowledged, “The intensity of fighting is only increasing.”

A variety of updated battle maps circulating among war monitors have consistently shown the Russians have the Ukrainians nearly surrounded…

By Michael Msika, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Europe’s robust buybacks have spread cheer among investors this earnings season, but a dimmer economic outlook and corporate caution could halt this supportive trend.

An index of companies that have posted plans to repurchase shares has jumped 14% this year, outperforming the broader European market. But margin pressure from inflation and the need to preserve cash are likely to make it harder for firms to sustain such programs from here on.

European companies have announced buybacks of nearly $70 billion so far this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Energy firms, flush with cash after a surge in oil prices, and banks — where higher rates have boosted income — have led the way.

“A prolonged multi-year trend of buybacks increasing in Europe requires global growth recovery which will help earnings,” says Bank of America quantitative strategist Paulina Strzelinska. While the number of new programs has risen by over 50% compared with the previous season, they are mostly concentrated in banks and energy, two sectors with “structural support to earnings,” she adds.

Buybacks, typically a less popular vehicle for shareholder returns than dividends in Europe, are gaining pace. The region’s buyback yield last year rose to the highest since 2011, according to BofA. But some strategists warn the trend may not truly take hold unless accompanied by strong fundamentals, a scenario that looks shaky as bets for further policy tightening grow, making a recession more likely.

At the same time, sustaining a buyback policy has become key to stock performance. Stoxx 600 companies that announced new buyback plans this year had a one-day stock gain of 1.5%, while those that had large buybacks in the past two years — but suspended or didn’t renew them — suffered a 3% decline on average, as a net of the index returns on the day, Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Laurent Douillet and Kaidi Meng point out.

Stocks such as chemical firm BASF, brewer Carlsberg and lender Societe Generale fell on disappointing buyback expectations this year. By contrast, carmaker Mercedes-Benz, oil major BP and distiller Pernod Ricard all surged after announcing new programs.

With European earnings expected to fall in 2023, some of these shareholders returns could be at risk. Margin pressure from inflation has forced companies including Carlsberg, BATS, ING and Deutsche Bank not to renew their programs. If the economy worsens, buybacks will also take a backseat to companies’ need to preserve capital.

“The volume of net buyback continues to build up, currently at the 100th percentile since 1990,” Morgan Stanley quantitative strategist Ronald Ho wrote last week. The key risk, according to him, is companies that have strong historical buybacks could change course unexpectedly and stop the program.

Buybacks in the energy sector, in particular, are expected to drop the most after companies spent €41 billion last year, while metals and mining companies have cut not only buyback plans but also their dividends on lower commodities prices and higher operating expenses, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Exactly one month ago, we extended our analysis of data fabrication (whether intentional or accidental) at Biden’s Department of Labor and Bureau of Labor Services, by looking at layoffs and job openings data, finding that the former was far higher than officially reported when compared to accurate, state level WARN notices…

… while also finding that the officially reported number of Job Openings per JOLTS was also incorrect and was exaggerated…

… when compared to numbers calculated by UBS using third-party data from Indeed and Opportunity Insights, with the latter now showing that job openings were in fact below pre-pandemic levels, a huge gap compared to the near-record openings number reported by JOLTS.

We bring this up because today none other than the WSJ’s original Fed whisperer, Jon Hilsenrath – at least before he was unceremoniously replaced by the younger and more easily controlled Nick Timiraos – writes in the most widely-read financial newspaper what Zero Hedge readers knew more than a month ago, namely that “demand for U.S. workers shows signs of slowing, a long-anticipated development that is showing up in private-sector job postings even while official government reports indicate the labor market keeps running hot.”

Citing ZipRecruiter and Recruit Holdings (parent company of Indeed), two large online recruiting companies, Hilsenrath notes that “their data show the number of job postings is declining more than Labor Department reports of job openings. Investors recently hammered shares of those companies after disappointing earnings reports.” As an aside, the latest Labor Department data showed 11 million job openings and 5.7 million unemployed people in December, a large mismatch and a source of upward wage pressure as there are 1.92 job openings for every unemployed worker.

Of course, it’s not just job openings where the Labor Department is dead wrong: in fact, virtually every labor market metric, from unemployment to payrolls, has been skewed to represent a stronger economy. Whether this is due to flawed seasonal adjustment metrics, or recurring taps on the shoulder from the Biden admin which is unwilling to admit the true state of the labor market, it has gotten so bad that last week even “JPMorgan lashed out at ridiculous seasonal adjustments In key US data“, with the simple implication: the real jobs data is far weaker than what the Biden admin is representing.

Of course, this matters because as Hilsenrath notes, upwardly manipulated government data on job openings and hiring “are among the reasons Federal Reserve officials believe the U.S. economy is overheated, fueling high inflation. Fed officials are raising interest rates in an attempt to slow growth and reduce price pressures. If government reports move in line with the recruitment business, Fed officials could feel less pressure to move aggressively.“

In other words, the BLS is faced with a dilemma: admit how bad the US labor market is and stop the stock market bleeding, or keep pushing the lie of economic growth and add a market crash to Biden’s list of all too real woes.

The Labor Department next week will report job-opening figures for January and payrolls for February. It tallied the number of available jobs in December at 11 million, 57% above levels in February 2020, right before Covid-19 hit the economy. The number ticked up in December after drifting lower in earlier months.

Hilariously, the BLS reported last month that hiring surged in January as restaurants, hospitals, nursing homes and child-care centers staffed up, more than offsetting cuts announced by employers such as Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. In fact, according to layoffs.fyi, Q1 is on pace for record tech layoffs.

Furthermore, as even the Fed’s original WSJ mouthpiece admits, “the data from Recruit Holdings, the parent company of U.S. job-listing site Indeed, and ZipRecruiter, tell a somewhat different story. ZipRecruiter said its job postings in December were 26% above pre-Covid levels and fell further in January.“

Indeed also showed a greater drop than the government figures, though not as stark as ZipRecruiter found. Indeed’s data show that companies are cutting back in particular on sponsored job postings, the kind they pay for, meaning they have been less willing to invest heavily to fill open positions.

Other private data also point to a decline in available jobs. The National Federation of Independent Business, which represents small businesses, and LinkUp, a research firm that tracks job listings that companies place on their own websites, also show a sharper drop in postings than recent government reports on openings.

“Clearly, we’re in a macroeconomic slowdown, and online recruiting has effectively cooled across the country,” Ian Siegel, chief executive of ZipRecruiter, said in a conference call last week.

Well, Ian, it’s not clear if you rely only on government data… which is wrong not only when it comes to jobs data, but increasingly all data has become total horseshit. Just look at the latest crude oil adjustment factor in the weekly DOE crude oil report: it just hit an all time high, with the sole intention of keep oil prices lower by signaling the oil inventories are building even though in reality they are rapidly draining!

It gets worse: if one believes the companies who job it is to represent the truth, not Biden’s political propaganda, the labor market picture is downright dismal: Siegel, CEO of ZipRecruiter whose weak quarterly revenue numbers sent its share price down more than 20% in a day, said that “We are seeing a surge in job seekers,” Siegel said. “When there are less jobs, it’s going to take these job seekers longer to find work and that is, in fact, what we are seeing.”

The firm told investors it is preparing for a softer hiring environment for the rest of the year.

And with the BLS’, well, BS so exposed it’s only a matter of time before the jobs show a collapse one of these months; come to think of it, maybe next week. After all, as Deutsche Bank showed overnight, we are overdue for a brutal, negative print in monthly payrolls.

What’s ironic is that the Fed has been trying to slow the labor market, even though the labor market has slowed substantially, and only the DOL’s “filtering” of information for political reasons is preventing the economy from being appreciated for how ugly it truly is. Meanwhile, the Fed has been raising short-term interest rates to cool household and business spending, which Fed officials hope will reduce labor demand and inflation. The Fed hopes to slow the economy and inflation just enough, without also spurring outright firing of workers and sharply higher unemployment.

“We are seeing a decline in employers’ willingness to spend to hire in many industries despite the labor shortage as they become increasingly cautious due to a potential recession in the U.S.,” Hisayuki Idekoba, chief executive of Recruit Holdings, said in a February call. And yet, if one believes the BLS, in January employers hired a whopping 517K workers!

To be sure, it is certainly possible that the DOL’s error is not premeditated (and we are confident that’s the excuse they will go with in a month or two). As Hilsenrath notes, “tracking available jobs is complicated. The Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey asks employers about unfilled positions that they are actively recruiting to fill. This survey isn’t as thorough as other federal surveys. It is based on reporting from 20,700 firms. By contrast, the Labor Department’s monthly payroll survey is based on reporting from 122,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 666,000 individual worksites.”

However, as we also first noted over a month ago, “the reliability of the Labor Department’s job-openings estimates has declined in recent years because fewer businesses have been responding to survey questions, said Paul Calhoun Jr., an economist at the Labor Department. The response rate for the survey fell to 30.6% last September from 56.4% in February 2020. The department increased its sample size in 2019 because of the declining response rates.”

The bottom line: “We haven’t seen [the slowdown] in the employment data yet, but we will see it soon,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “We also speak to customers all of the time. We discuss with them their plans for future hiring. They are telling us they are worried about the risk of overhiring.”

And while the market’s estimate of the terminal rate just hit 5.50% following a repricing in the past month that was sparked by the 517K Jan payrolls number…

… expect this to air pocket as soon as next Friday when the BLS just may have to finally admit the truth about the state of the US labor market, and print the first negative print since December 2020.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A girls basketball team has withdrawn from the Vermont Division IV state tournament in protest against a transgender player who has routinely been dominating games.

After finding out that their opponents the Long Trail School Mountain Lions (LTS) had a biological male on their team, the Mid Vermont Christian School Eagles (MVCS) forfeited their playoff game.

“We believe playing against an opponent with a biological male jeopardizes the fairness of the game and the safety of our players,” said MVCS head of school Vicky Fogg.

“Allowing biological males to participate in women’s sports sets a bad precedent for the future of women’s sports in general.”

In a previous interview, Mountain Lions coach Courtney Stasny boasted about Rose Johnson, who at 6’1 is the tallest member of their team, and his ability to block shots.

“Rose brings such a great energy to the floor. We nicknamed her Rose ‘not in my house’ Johnson because she just does not let anything come through the lane,” Stasny said.

After being beaten 47-43 by LTS, Proctor High School player Aubrey Lanning lamented about how, “Rose guards the whole post.”

DORSET — Long Trail’s Rose Johnson controlled the opening tip of Tuesday night’s girls basketball game against Mill River and deflected it to a teammate who immediately found Molly Luikart for a layup on the left side of the basket. The opening sequ… https://t.co/ceAgm5OzVj

— Bennington Banner (@banner_news) February 1, 2023

Professional coach and fitness expert Aaron Warner told the Vermont Daily Chronicle that Johnson clearly had an unfair physical advantage on the other players.

“In one game [Johnson] had seven blocked shots. That means seven shots, typically closer to the basket so much more likely to go in, were blocked by the guy who is taller than every other girl on the floor, can jump higher and likely is significantly stronger. In what world is this even remotely fair to other Vermont Division IV girls?” he asked.

Warner also sounded the alarm bell on potential injuries that female players could sustain as a result of Johnson’s dominance.

“Bone mass, lean mass, cardiac output, strength capacity, work capacity and kinesiological potential all heavily advantage males. This is why men’s competition records (i.e. sprinting, jumping, weight lifting) dwarf women’s…Add to this fact that men are larger, faster and stronger than women and the potential for males injuring girls increases dramatically in competition.”

“In October, a North Carolina school district voted to forfeit all girls volleyball games against a rival school that featured a trans-identifying male player over safety concerns after he injured a girl on an opposing team with a forcefully-spiked ball to the face,” reports Reduxx. “Video that went viral showed the girl collapsing to the ground after being hit with the ball. She reportedly suffered head and neck injuries and long-term concussion symptoms.”

As we highlighted yesterday, a transgender athlete who now identifies as a woman has won four different female running competitions so far this year alone after smashing a women’s 5000 meter record last year.

Studies have consistently shown that biological male competitors retain significant advantages over female competitors even after undergoing ‘transition’ and starting hormone therapy.

A poll conducted last summer found that only 28 per cent of Americans support transgender athletes being allowed to compete in female sports tournaments.

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A cornerstone of the once-unassailable Covid-19 narrative took another mighty blow on Tuesday afternoon, as FBI Director Christopher Wray said the bureau concluded the pandemic was most likely the result of a leak from a Chinese lab. 

Wray’s remarks represent the FBI’s first public confirmation of its assessment. Exasperatingly for ZeroHedge and countless others who’ve been banned from social media and accused of racism for exploring that hypothesis, Wray casually framed it in a way that made it sound like old news.   

“The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan,” he told Fox News in a Tuesday interview. He said he couldn’t share details of the assessment since they’re still classified. 

Wray’s remarks come a few days after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Energy had in May 2020 reached its own conclusion — albeit with “low confidence” at that early date — that a lab leak was the most likely origin. The Department of Energy is in a position to opine given its role in supervising US national laboratories. 

While the Journal reported that four intelligence agencies still embrace the natural-transmission theory, Wray touted the bureau’s credentials in reaching its conclusion:

“The FBI has folks agents, professionals, analysts, virologists, microbiologists, etc, who focus specifically on the dangers of biological threats, which include things like novel viruses like COVID and the concerns that in the wrong hands…some bad guys, a hostile nation state, a terrorist a criminal, the threats that those those could pose.

So here you’re talking about a potential leak from a Chinese government-controlled lab that killed millions of Americans, and that’s precisely what that capability was designed for.”

Watch for Attorney General Merrick Garland to be questioned about Wray’s comments on Wednesday when he appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

When asked about the Energy department conclusion, China pointed to a 2021 World Health Organization investigation that said a lab leak was “extremely unlikely.” Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said “certain parties should stop rehashing the ‘lab leak’ narrative, stop smearing China and stop politicizing origins-tracing.” 

NOW – FBI Director Wray: “Origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan.”pic.twitter.com/ql5NmrXPZe

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) February 28, 2023

Wray, however, accused Beijing of thwarting efforts to determine the origin of the virus: 

“I will just make the observation that the Chinese government, it seems to me, has been doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate the work here, the work that we’re doing, the work that our U.S. government and close foreign partners are doing. And that’s unfortunate for everybody,” 

The Chinese government may well have killed millions with gain-of-function research coupled with sloppy lab practices…or something worse. At the same time, we have to wonder: Is the U.S. government now choosing to weaponize that likelihood to turn up the heat in World War III’s easternmost tinderbox?  

#FBI Director Wray confirmed that the Bureau has assessed that the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic likely originated from a lab incident in Wuhan, China. pic.twitter.com/LcBVNU7vmO

— FBI (@FBI) March 1, 2023

Finally, two things worth considering: why now, and where’s Biden?

That’s my main red flag with this situation.

The FBI/DoE are pushing a media campaign to tell the public about the lab origin of covid, yet there is ZERO sense of urgency from the rest of the government.

We are allegedly under biological attack, and Biden is in the basement.

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) March 1, 2023

There’s no coincidences in Washington and we need China as the ‘bad guy’ now.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let’s discuss the warnings of PJM Interconnect, the operator of the nation’s largest competitive market for electricity.

Before reviewing the PJM Interconnect February 2023 report, let’s take a look at policies and regulations.

Policies and Regulations

• EPA Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR): The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated national minimum criteria for existing and new coal combustion residuals (CCR) landfills and existing and new CCR surface impoundments. This led to a number of facilities, approximately 2,700 MW in capacity, indicating their intent to comply with the rule by ceasing coal-firing operations, which is reflected in this study.

• EPA Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELG): The EPA updated these guidelines in 2020, which triggered the announcement by Keystone and Conemaugh facilities (about 3,400 MW) to retire their coal units by the end of 2028. 14 Importantly, but not included in this study, the EPA is planning to propose a rule to strengthen and possibly broaden the guidelines applicable to waste (in particular water) discharges from steam electric generating units. The EPA is expecting this to impact coal units by potentially requiring investments when plants renew their discharge permits, and extending the time that plants can operate if they agree to a retirement date.

• EPA Good Neighbor Rule (GNR): This proposal requires units in certain states to meet stringent limits on emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which, for certain units, will require investment in selective catalytic reduction to reduce NOx. For purposes of this study, it is assumed that unit owners will not make that investment and will retire approximately 4,400 MW of units instead. Please note that the EPA plans on finalizing the GNR in March, which may necessitate reevaluation of this assumption.

• Illinois Climate & Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA): CEJA mandates the scheduled phase-out of coal and natural gas generation by specified target dates: January 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045. To understand CEJA criteria impacts and establish the timing of affected generation units’ expected deactivation, PJM analyzed each generating unit’s publicly available emissions data, published heat rate, and proximity to Illinois environmental justice communities and Restore, Reinvest, Renew (R3) zones. For this study, PJM focuses on the approximately 5,800 MW expected to retire in 2030. 

Solar Projects On Hold

Next, consider the Inside Climate News report The Largest U.S. Grid Operator Puts 1,200 Mostly Solar Projects on Hold for Two Years

The nation’s largest electrical grid operator has approved a new process for adding power plants to the sprawling transmission system it manages, including a two-year pause on reviewing and potentially approving some 1,200 projects, mostly solar power, that are part of a controversial backlog.

Over the last four years, PJM officials have said they have experienced a fundamental shift in the number and type of energy projects seeking to be added to a grid, each needing careful study to ensure reliability. It used to be that PJM would see fewer, but larger, fossil fuel proposals. Now, they are seeing a larger number of smaller, largely renewable energy projects.

A new approval process will put projects that are the readiest for construction at the front of the line, and discourage those that might be more speculative or that have not secured all their financing.

Then, an interim period will put a two-year delay on about 1,250 projects in their queue—close to half of the total—and defer the review of new projects until the fourth quarter of 2025, with final decisions on those coming as late as the end of 2027. 

Energy Transition in PJM

Now let’s now take a look at Energy Transition in PJM: Resource Retirements, Replacements & Risks released February 24, 2023.

Our research highlights four trends below that we believe, in combination, present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry under a possible “low new entry” scenario:

The growth rate of electricity demand is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region. Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known. PJM’s interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources. Given the operating characteristics of these resources, we need multiple megawatts of these resources to replace 1 MW of thermal generation. 

The analysis shows that 40 GW of existing generation are at risk of retirement by 2030. This figure is composed of: 6 GW of 2022 deactivations, 6 GW of announced retirements, 25 GW of potential policy-driven retirements and 3 GW of potential economic retirements. Combined, this represents 21% of PJM’s current installed capacity.

In addition to the retirements, PJM’s long-term load forecast shows demand growth of 1.4% per year for the PJM footprint over the next 10 years. Due to the expansion of highly concentrated clusters of data centers, combined with overall electrification, certain individual zones exhibit more significant demand growth – as high as 7% annually.

For the first time in recent history, PJM could face decreasing reserve margins should these trends continue. The amount of generation retirements appears to be more certain than the timely arrival of replacement generation resources and demand response, given that the quantity of retirements is codified in various policy objectives, while the impacts to the pace of new entry of the Inflation Reduction Act, post-pandemic supply chain issues, and other externalities are still not fully understood. 

Recent movement in the natural gas spot markets across the U.S. and Europe add another degree of uncertainty to future operations. In 2022, European natural gas supply faced many challenges resulting from the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russia. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the EU and the U.K. in the first half of 2022 increased 66% over the 2021 annual average, primarily from U.S. exporters with operational flexibility. This international natural gas demand is a new competitor for domestic spot-market consumers, resulting in significantly higher fuel costs for PJM’s natural gas fleet. 

Along with the energy transition, PJM is witnessing a large growth in data center activity. Importantly, the PJM footprint is home to Data Center Alley in Loudoun County, Virginia, the largest concentration of data centers in the world. PJM uses the Load Analysis Subcommittee (LAS) to perform technical analysis to coordinate information related to the forecast of electrical peak demand. In 2022, the LAS began a review of data center load growth and identified growth rates over 300% in some instances. 

Additionally, PJM is expecting an increase in electrification resulting from state and federal policies and regulations. The study therefore incorporates an electrification scenario in the load forecast to provide insight on capacity need should accelerated electrification drive demand increases.

Impacts of Electrification and Data Center Loads

What Does This Mean for Resource Adequacy in PJM?

Combining the resource exit, entry and increases in demand, summarized in Figure 7, the study identified some areas of concern. Approximately 40 GW PJM’s fossil fuel fleet resources may be pressured to retire as load grows into the 2026/2027 Delivery Year. 

The projected total capacity from generating resources would not meet projected peak loads, thus requiring the deployment of demand response. By the 2028/2029 Delivery Year and beyond, at Low New Entry scenario levels, projected reserve margins would be 8%, as projected demand response may be insufficient to cover peak demand expectations, unless new entry progresses at a levels exhibited in the High New Entry scenario. This will require the ability to maintain needed existing resources, as well as quickly incentivize and integrate new entry 

 

The 2024/2025 BRA, which executed in December 2022, highlighted another area of uncertainty. Queue capacity with approved ISAs/WMPAs is currently very high, approximately 35 GW-nameplate, but resources are not progressing into construction.

There has only been about 10 GW-nameplate moving to in service in the past three years. There may still be risks to new entry, such as semiconductor supply chain disruptions or pipeline supply restrictions, which are preventing construction despite resources successfully navigating the queue process. 

 

About that Queue

After applying the logistical regression model for 10 years of historical project completion (Y-queue to present) without project stage, approximately 15.3 GW-nameplate/8.7 GW-capacity were deemed commercially probable out of 178 GW of projects examined. 

The model results for thermal resources were reasonably in line with expectations. However, the model produced extremely low entry from onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, solar-hybrid and storage resources.  

Mish Synopsis 

• Expect to pay much higher prices for electricity 

• Expect brownouts

• Expect missed targets 

• Expect most of the thousands of project requests on hold to be economically unviable.

• Expect many economically unviable projects to continue anyway paid for by taxpayer subsidies.

• Expect much higher inflation. 

• Don’t expect any of this to do a damn thing for the environment.

Question of the Day – How Fast Will the Shift to EVs happen?

In case you missed it, please consider Question of the Day – How Fast Will the Shift to EVs happen?

The faster the shift, the higher and faster the inflation.

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Tesla is slated to hold its most recent investor day today, with shareholders eagerly awaiting CEO Elon Musk’s long-term vision for the electric vehicle manufacturer. 

Shareholders are hoping for a number of updates, including on the company’s Cybertruck, its new subcompact vehicle, a refreshing to the existing product line, a long term vision and new manufacturing ventures the company is putting in place. And, of course, Wall Street will be looking for any information or guidance as to how the year is progressing – and how it may continue to progress – from the auto manufacturer. 

The concept of a new subcompact vehicle is front and center, with investors hoping that a lower priced vehicle could move Tesla even further into the mass market for automobiles, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Investors will also look for how the company plans on meeting its 20 million vehicles sold per year goal by 2030. The increase marks a substantial scale higher from the 1.3 million vehicles the company sold in 2022. 

Musk is expected to deliver his “Master Plan 3”, which he called a “path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth” earlier this month. He has confirmed that it will be released during today’s presentation. Musk’s previous “Master Plans” have included the goals of making battery powered vehicles affordable and competitive, followed by the idea to buy Solar City – a decision that has come under scrutiny due to the precarious financial position of the acquired company at the time. 

Investors will also be on watch for new information about Tesla’s humanoid robot, as well as an update on the recent Full Self Driving recall and the grappling match that the company is in the midst of with regulators related to its autonomous driving software. The company’s use of AI in the future – both with Tesla and potentially as part of new projects – is also said to be a focus of the event.

Finally, as we wrote about hours ago, the company will also offer up new information on its forthcoming production facility in Mexico. The company is slated to build a new plant in Monterrey, Mexico, it was reported by Bloomberg this week. The announcement comes after weeks of guessing over where the U.S. based EV company would expand its reach next. 

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced on Wednesday that the facility would help Mexico “build on the millions of combustion-engine vehicles the country already supplies to the US every year,” according to Bloomberg. Companies like BMW and GM have also recently announced new investments in Mexico, also. 

Lopez Obrador reportedly spoke to Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk about environmental commitments for the plant, which included recycled water throughout the manufacturing process. 

AMLO said of the deal: “He was very responsive, understanding our concerns and accepting our proposals. I want to thank Mr. Elon Musk for being very respectful, attentive and understanding of the importance of addressing the problem of water scarcity.”