New ‘Ultra Right’ Beer Expected To See $1 Million In Sales As Backlash Against Bud Light Trans Partnership Continues

New ‘Ultra Right’ Beer Expected To See $1 Million In Sales As Backlash Against Bud Light Trans Partnership Continues

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Following the backlash and boycott of Bud Light after its partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney, Conservative Dad’s Ultra Right Beer is expected to surpass $1 million in sales since launching in mid-April, FOX Business reported.

Bud Light beer cans sit on a table in right field during the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Md., on Sept. 19, 2019. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)

The million-dollar mark is expected to be hit after only being in business for less than two weeks, as consumers put their dollars where their values lay.

Retail sales of Bud Light have crashed as calls for a boycott have been heeded in the weeks following the brand’s partnership with Mulvaney, according to a Beer Business Daily report.

Tracking data on Bud Light sold in places like supermarkets and liquor stores—known as scanner volumes—fell by double-digit percentages during the first two weeks of the Mulvaney controversy. Sales of Bud Light cases fell 10.7 percent for the week ending on April 8 and plunged by over 21 percent for the week ending April 15.

“This is more than a beer company. It’s a movement of people who are speaking up and saying no,” Ultra Right CEO Seth Weathers told FOX Business. “We’re done. This is our line in the sand.”

Sales Skyrocketing

Weathers told FOX Business the company has gained over 10,000 customers and sold 20,000 six-packs since the launch.

The beer can be purchased on the company’s website and shipped to the majority of the United States. The website states the beer is currently in production and in a pre-sale period, with orders shipping approximately 30 days after ordering.

The company announced they were working with Big Kettle Brewing in Gwinnett County, Georgia, outside of Atlanta. Weathers also told FOX Business the company had generated $70,000 in T-shirt sales since its launch as well.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/28/2023 – 17:40

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Trans Mascot Dylan Mulvaney Says It Should Be Illegal To Misgender People

Trans Mascot Dylan Mulvaney Says It Should Be Illegal To Misgender People

How much participation should be required of the general public in the personal fantasies of transgender activists?  How much “affirmation” should we be forced to offer in submission to the trans ideology?  This is perhaps the biggest issue at the core of the debate over “trans rights” – It’s not so much about rights, it’s about how much special treatment trans activists can squeeze out of the populace.  

While initially claiming that the use of preferred pronouns was more about common courtesy and that the movement would “never” try to demand legal recourse for the act of misgendering, gender ideologues are now pressing for the full force of government to strike down political opponents with consequences should they dare to point out biological facts.

Does dude look like a lady?  One day it might be illegal to point these things out.

Canada’s socialist government in particular (along with provincial governments) has been quick to embrace the trans movement and is now acting to punish misgendering as a human rights violationThey are even calling for the banning of “offensive remarks” within 100 meters of any drag show.  In other words, the goal of the trans movement and the political left is to have arbitrary control of individual speech and to shut down all opposition.  This sentiment has been repeated by the now notorious Dylan Mulvaney, a biological man that identifies as a woman who has somehow become a prominent mascot for trans activists simply by prancing around on TikTok. 

Mulvaney gained global attention after Anheuser-Busch partnered with him in a disastrous promotional stunt for their Bud Light brand that resulted in the beer company losing billions in market value and their sales plunging. It was obviously not the kind of attention that Mulvaney intended and the activist is angry that numerous publications are referring to him as a “him.”

Should society be forced to perpetuate a lie and enable a delusion in the name of saving people from hurt feelings?  Most trans people say yes, arguing that misgendering leads to trans suicides and that words are the same as violence.  That is to say, the activists believe their fragility earns them privileges. 

This has also been the messaging of the corporate media in response to the Mulvaney debacle; they do not seem interesting in debating the scientific or biological facts at hand when it comes to the trans issue.  Rather, they focus on the “meanness” of Mulvaney’s critics and the supposed harm that is being done to the mental health of activists through politically incorrect language.  However,  it’s not the responsibility of the public or the government to protect the paper-thin egos of random citizens who are desperate to feel special. 

Sometimes the truth hurts.  No amount of plastic surgery or caked on make-up is going to change that.  And, when it does hurt, it’s not up to society to suppress the truth for the sake of weak people. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/28/2023 – 17:20

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A YIMBY Victory in Montana


Montana

Exclusionary zoning causes massive housing shortages that prevent millions of people from “moving to opportunity” and becoming more productive. The state of Montana is about to enact important new zoning reforms that will make it easier to build new housing in the state. The new legislation is the product of an unusual cross-ideological coalition that might serve as a model for “YIMBY” reforms elsewhere. CityLab housing expert Kriston Capps has a helpful analysis of these developments:

Lawmakers in Montana’s state legislature advanced bills in April that would shake up zoning, land use and building codes, making it much easier for property owners to build new housing — and much harder for local authorities to stop them.

A flurry of five separate “Yes In My Backyard” bills — all five sponsored by Republican legislators — are winding their way through various committees. One would require cities to permit backyard flats and other accessory dwelling units by right. Another law would allow duplex homes to be built in places zoned for single-family housing. If Montana Governor Greg Gianforte, also a Republican, signs even a couple of these bills into law, Montana will have leapfrogged several East and West Coast states that have struggled to respond to housing shortages at home….

In one fell swoop, the Montana legislature could issue a range of deregulatory actions that have only moved forward in California after years of agitation. On April 20, the legislature passed SB 323, which requires any city with more than 5,000 residents to permit duplex housing in areas zoned for single-family homes. Gianforte is expected to sign this bill as well as SB 406, which prohibits local governments from passing building codes that are stricter than the state code, any time now.

Of the bills in view, the most consequential is SB 382, the Montana Land Use Planning Act, a YIMBY omnibus package the likes of which few blue states would dare to consider.

SB 382 would transform the development process, limiting public hearings on housing projects by front-loading them to the general planning stages, when municipalities adopt their overall land-use plans. After that, approvals in Montana cities would proceed by right — effectively shutting out NIMBY homeowners who often thwart growth.

As Capps explains, the new legislation is the product of an unusual left-right political coalition:

The wave of legislation is the work of a diverse group of advocates from both the political left and right. The coalition behind this push is clear about its goal: Montana needs to head off a housing crisis at the pass.

On this point advocates can agree, even if on almost every other subject, they’re worlds apart. And by joining forces, this left-right coalition cleared a political impasse that has blocked so-called housing-abundant policies, which strive to remove barriers to new construction.

We were able to go to mostly Republicans and talk about free markets the importance of property rights. They were able to go to folks on the left and talk about climate and social impacts,” says Kendall Cotton, president and CEO of the Frontier Institute, a right-leaning free-market think tank. “It doesn’t break down on normal partisan lines. Advocates shouldn’t silo themselves on the normal partisan lines.”

The YIMBY movement taking shape in Helena is unusual in the US: Few states with a Republican governor, much less with a GOP supermajority in the legislature, have advanced such sweeping efforts to promote new housing construction in cities. Some red states have seen the opposite happen: When Gainesville became the first city in Florida to end single-family-only zoning locally, state leaders threatened legal action, and local Democrats repealed the ordinance before it could take effect.

Zoning reform cuts across standard ideological lines. Economists and housing experts across the political spectrum agree on the need to curb exclusionary zoning. But there is also is long history of both left and right-wing NIMBYism, motivated by a combination of public ignorance, suspicion of market forces and developers, and (particularly, though far from exclusively, on the right) fear of disruption of existing communities by in-migration, especially that by the poor and racial minorities.

NIMBY opposition will be easier to overcome if reform advocates can work together across traditional political lines, as they have in Montana. As Copps notes, such coalitions may not be needed in overwhelmingly “blue” jurisdictions, where conservatives and libertarians have too little political influence to make much difference. But they can be useful in light-red, light-blue, and “purple” states like Virginia, where GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin has recently advocated reform, but will likely need help from Democrats to push legislation through. A broad coalition has turned out to be valuable even in strongly red Montana, where the support of liberals helped push reform over the top.

Whether Montana’s success can be replicated elsewhere remains to be seen.  Capps suggests “[i]t’s possible that the special sauce in Montana is ultimately Montana itself.” But, while Montana-specific factors surely played a role here, the problems caused by exclusionary zoning are from unique to that state. Reformers should at least try to learn from the Montana experience and see if they can develop similar coalitions in other states.

 

 

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Justice Alito Defends The Supreme Court In Ways Chief Justice Roberts Cannot

I’ve grown completely numb to the daily reporting on alleged ethical problems at the Supreme Court. All of these pieces follow a similar pattern. (1) Reporter spends an inordinate amount of time poring over mountains of publicly-available documents. (2) Reporter finds something that was not disclosed, or not fully-disclosed. (3) Reporter raises allegation that the failure to fully disclose that item is a problem, without actually identifying what that problem is. (4) Reporter interviews left-wing ethics groups who insist that full disclosure is necessary. (5) Reporter interviews the same cadre of law professors, who maintain that even though no actual rule was violated, the Justice should abide by some unwritten, higher standard. (6) Reporter publishes piece, which is widely shared on social media, but not actually read. (7) Sober analysis later reveals that the Justice either complied with the rules or made a good-faith mistake that will promptly be corrected. I’ll have much more to say about this journalistic paint-by-numbers in a future ABA Journal column. Sunlight is a good disinfectant; too much heat will burn everything down.

But you know what the press has largely forgotten about? An actual judicial crisis: how the draft Dobbs opinion leaked to the press. The media should devote as much attention to the leak, as it fixates on who Amy Coney Barrett hosted a baby shower for 20 years ago.

And amidst these attacks, the Supreme Court remains rudderless. We know that the Chef Justice is unable, or unwilling to defend his Court beyond self-serving bromides about the Court as an “institution.” If he thought his shoddy letter to the Senate would quell controversy, he was very wrong. The statement the Chief organized raised more questions than it answered. Fortunately, at least one member of the Court is willing to defend the Court against the never-ending barrage of attacks: Justice Samuel Alito. If Justice Thomas is the intellectual leader of the Court, Justice Alito is its heart.

We see this heart in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, given in mid-April. He defends the Supreme Court in ways the Chief Justice cannot, or will not.

First, Alito explains, correctly, that what will harm the Court’s legitimacy is to rule based on public perception–exactly what the Casey plurality purported to do:

The threat to politicize the court can tempt justices to rule defensively—to take account of political ramifications and thereby politicize their own institution. The plurality explicitly did that in Casey, and some sitting justices have been accused of it in recent years. Justice Alito isn’t one of them.

“This is not a situation in which the right thing to do is different from the expedient thing to do, at least in the long term,” he says. The public “will have reason to question our legitimacy if they see that what we are doing is not following the Constitution and the laws, but we’ve got our finger to the wind”—he lofts a digit—”and we’re issuing decisions that nobody really believes represent our sincere thinking about the law, but are structured in a way to curry favor, avoid controversy or something like that.”

Justice Antonin Scalia said something similar in his dissent in Casey: “The notion that we would decide a case differently from the way we otherwise would have in order to show that we can stand firm against public disapproval is frightening.”

I made this point in a Newsweek column last summer. Dobbs did not simply overrule CaseyDobbs overruled the “judges of wisdom” who based their decision on popular sentiment.

Justice Alito calls out the incessant criticism targeting the Court’s “legitimacy.”

But as the court has grown more conservative in recent years, the left has stepped up the attacks on the court’s “legitimacy,” including character assassination of individual justices, with little objection from mainstream Democrats and plenty of help from the media.

Justice Alito says “this type of concerted attack on the court and on individual justices” is “new during my lifetime. . . . We are being hammered daily, and I think quite unfairly in a lot of instances.”

Ultimately, these efforts are a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you keep repeating the “legitimacy” line over and over again, it eventually becomes “true.” People will believe the Court is no longer legitimate.

Those who throw the mud then disparage the justices for being dirty. “We’re being bombarded with this,” Justice Alito says, “and then those who are attacking us say, ‘Look how unpopular they are. Look how low their approval rating has sunk.’ Well, yeah, what do you expect when you’re—day in and day out, ‘They’re illegitimate. They’re engaging in all sorts of unethical conduct. They’re doing this, they’re doing that’?”

And these efforts will, in the end, weaken the ability of the Court do its business.

It “undermines confidence in the government,” Justice Alito says. “It’s one thing to say the court is wrong; it’s another thing to say it’s an illegitimate institution. You could say the same thing about Congress and the president. . . . When you say that they’re illegitimate, any of the three branches of government, you’re really striking at something that’s essential to self-government.”

Second, Alito observes that those most familiar with the Court’s work refuse to defend the Court.

“And nobody, practically nobody, is defending us. The idea has always been that judges are not supposed to respond to criticisms, but if the courts are being unfairly attacked, the organized bar will come to their defense.” Instead, “if anything, they’ve participated to some degree in these attacks.”

Indeed, the American Bar Association has adopted a resolution calling on the Court to adopt and ethics code. You may think that resolution is neutral, or even salutary. But the leaders in the legal profession are feeding into the “legitimacy” attack.

Yet, many of the same people who carp about legitimacy also insist that Court “expansion” is the only way to restore the Court’s legitimacy. Alito disagrees.

Justice Alito finds the whole notion appalling: “To change the size of the court just because you want to change the result in cases—that would destroy it. You want to talk about our legitimacy? That would destroy the perception that we’re anything other than a political body.”

Third, Justice Alito turns to Dobbs. Justice Alito echoed Justice Thomas’s concerns that the leak harmed the Court’s collegiality:

He now says that the leak “created an atmosphere of suspicion and distrust. We worked through it, and last year we got our work done. This year, I think, we’re trying to get back to normal operations as much as we can. . . . But it was damaging.”

Alito also reveals that he suspects he knows who leaked the draft.

Justice Alito says the marshal “did a good job with the resources that were available to her” and agrees that the evidence was insufficient for a public accusation. “I personally have a pretty good idea who is responsible, but that’s different from the level of proof that is needed to name somebody,” he says.

Does “who is” here refer to a single person, or to more than one person? I think the former. But more importantly, Justice Alito opines on the motive. Hint, it wasn’t a conservative.

He’s certain about the motive: “It was a part of an effort to prevent the Dobbs draft . . . from becoming the decision of the court. And that’s how it was used for those six weeks by people on the outside—as part of the campaign to try to intimidate the court.”

Alito finds it preposterous that anyone would think a conservative leaked the document:

A few pundits on the left speculated that the leaker might have been a conservative attempting to lock in the five-justice majority and overturn the constitutional right to abortion. “That’s infuriating to me,” Justice Alito says of the theory. “Look, this made us targets of assassination. Would I do that to myself? Would the five of us have done that to ourselves? It’s quite implausible.”

Those who maintain that Alito leaked the opinion to “lock in” votes will now have to accuses Alito of lying. (That won’t be a problem.)

Alito also highlights an obvious fact: a Justice was almost assassinated to prevent the majority from releasing the opinion. In hindsight, at least, a conservative would never have made this move.

That campaign included unlawful assemblies outside justices’ homes, and that wasn’t the worst of it. “Those of us who were thought to be in the majority, thought to have approved my draft opinion, were really targets of assassination,” Justice Alito says. “It was rational for people to believe that they might be able to stop the decision in Dobbs by killing one of us.” On June 8, an armed man was arrested outside the home of Justice Brett Kavanaugh; the suspect was later charged with attempted assassination and has pleaded not guilty.

Justice Alito also weighed in on the changes to his security protocol:

He adds that “I don’t feel physically unsafe, because we now have a lot of protection.” He is “driven around in basically a tank, and I’m not really supposed to go anyplace by myself without the tank and my members of the police force.” Deputy U.S. marshals guard the justices’ homes 24/7. (The U.S. Marshals Service, a bureau of the Justice Department, is distinct from the marshal of the court, who reports to the justices and oversees the Supreme Court Police.)

Finally, Alito also predicted that Justice Scalia would have joined the majority in Dobbs:

How did Scalia escape the opprobrium to which his younger colleagues and successors have been subjected? In part by dissenting often. “Nobody can say for sure,” Justice Alito says, “but I’m willing to bet he would have been on the side that has been so heavily criticized in all the controversial cases. His vote would have been there, and he would have been subjected to the same kind of criticism.”

There’s little doubt that would have been true of Dobbs. “Some decisions,” Justice Alito says, “and I think that Roe and Casey fell in this category, are so egregiously wrong, so clearly wrong, that that’s a very strong factor in support of overruling them.” Scalia was even blunter in Casey: “We should get out of this area, where we have no right to be, and where we do neither ourselves nor the country any good by remaining.”

“When you’re in dissent,” Justice Alito observes, “well, his ideas were amusing and interesting. He spoke at a lot of law schools and he was honored at law schools, but he wasn’t a threat, because those views were not prevailing on issues that really hit home.”

I agree.

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Biden and Congressional Democrats Support Policies That Will Undermine Their Own Clean Energy Goals


An array of photovoltaic solar panels in a field.

President Joe Biden is serious about fighting climate change through clean energy. As part of his 2020 presidential platform, he endorsed the ambitious and pricey “Green New Deal” and pledged to “ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.” Once in office, Biden “set a goal to reach 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035.”

It’s ironic, then, that Biden’s administration and congressional allies are undermining those very same goals.

The two primary methods of mitigating carbon emissions are either reducing the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere—shifting to a cleaner technology like wind or solar, for example—or removing and trapping carbon that has already been released. One example of the latter is carbon capture and storage (CCS), which removes carbon from the atmosphere and contains it within the natural environment, either by absorbing it into trees and oceans or capturing and storing it underground.

According to The New York Times, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will soon announce limits on greenhouse gas emissions for coal- and gas-fired power plants. Citing unnamed officials, the Times expects the limits will force plants to use CCS technology, even though only a handful currently do. Under last year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), companies can even qualify for a tax credit of $85 per ton of carbon captured.

But as The Washington Examiner reported, “the administration is currently the largest obstacle to its own climate goals.” In order to build out CCS, companies need to construct underground reservoirs, called class VI wells, in which to inject and store captured carbon. And yet the EPA is currently sitting on dozens of permit applications for class VI wells, leaving them in “pending” status. Power plants that want to introduce carbon-mitigating technology are unable to do so until the EPA moves through its backlog.

It’s also worth remembering that these are just the existing permit applications: Once the EPA rolls out rules that would functionally require most of the nation’s more than 3,400 coal- and gas-fired power plants to use the technology, there’s no telling how bad the backlog would get.

Carbon capture isn’t even the only area where the government is standing in its own way. The IRA established tax credits for clean-energy expenditures like electric vehicles and solar panels. And while the solar panel credits are exceedingly difficult to qualify for, Democrats in Congress are pushing for tariffs on panels made in China, which will hurt the solar industry’s ability to meet demand.

In February 2022, Biden announced that he would renew Trump-era tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels and solar cells. In June, he suspended the tariffs for two years, amid a Commerce Department investigation into companies circumventing the tariffs that roiled the industry. He then invoked the Defense Production Act to boost the domestic manufacture of solar modules and components, which he deemed “essential to the national defense.”

But on Friday, the House passed a resolution that would revoke Biden’s pause and reinstate the tariffs; 12 Democrats voted for the legislation while eight Republicans voted against it. The Washington Post recently reported that while the solar industry worries that the tariffs would be ruinous, Democrats worry that “taking anything other than a hard line against China will cost them voter support.” But it will likely also cost them their clean energy goals, seeing as “Chinese companies manufacture more than 80 percent of certain crucial components sold worldwide” for clean energy applications, including “more than 95 percent of the wafers and ingots essential to assembling photovoltaic solar panels.”

This week, Sens. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.) and Rick Scott (R–Fla.) cosponsored a resolution disapproving of the Biden administration’s pause on tariffs. Manchin, who also chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in a statement, “The United States relies on foreign nations, like China, for far too many of our energy needs…. I cannot fathom why the Administration and Congress would consider extending that reliance any longer.”

Tariffs, as envisioned by protectionist politicians, boost domestic production by lowering the cost differential between American products and their less-expensive counterparts imported from overseas. But in reality, tariffs simply make imports more expensive and remove market incentives for American companies to sell their products at lower prices.

With these tariffs, Biden and Democrats’ clean energy goals will become increasingly difficult to meet.

“The United States cannot produce enough solar panels and cells to meet demand,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association, “and the remaining 14 months of this moratorium gives us time to close the gap. The United States can get there and become a global leader in clean energy manufacturing and development. Overturning the moratorium at this stage puts that future at risk.”

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More Evidence that Cutting Zoning Restrictions Reduces the Price of Housing


zoning-laws-abolish

Zoning rules that severely restrict the construction of new housing are a major violation of property rights, and also cause housing shortages that prevent millions of people from “moving to opportunity” and becoming more productive. There is already extensive research by economists and housing policy experts demonstrating these points. A new study by Alex Horowitz and Ryan Canavan, housing specialists at Pew Charitable Trusts, provides additional evidence:

A national housing shortage has driven up rents, leaving a record share of Americans spending more than 30% of their income on rent and making them what is known as rent-burdened. But in four jurisdictions—Minneapolis; New Rochelle, New York; Portland, Oregon; and Tysons, Virginia—new zoning rules to allow more housing have helped curtail rent growth, saving tenants thousands of dollars annually….

Research shows that rents rise when more people need housing relative to how many homes are available. Restrictive zoning policies make it harder and more expensive to build new housing for everyone who wants it, and most researchers have found that this drives up home prices and rents…..

But what happens to rents after new homes are built? Studies show that adding new housing supply slows rent growth—both nearby and regionally—by reducing competition among tenants for each available home and thereby lowering displacement pressures. This finding from the four jurisdictions examined supports the argument that updating zoning to allow more housing can improve affordability.

In all four places studied, the vast majority of new housing has been market rate, meaning rents are based on factors such as demand and prevailing construction and operating costs. Most rental homes do not receive government subsidies,… Policymakers have debated whether allowing more market-rate—meaning unsubsidized—housing improves overall affordability in a market. The evidence indicates that adding more housing of any kind helps slow rent growth. And the Pew analysis of these four places is consistent with that finding….

Each of these places kept rent growth minimal relative to the U.S. overall, even while demand for housing continued to grow. Between 2017 and 2021, the four jurisdictions saw their total number of households grow between 7% and 22%, while the total households nationally increased by 6%. More households require more homes, and a housing shortage relative to demand drives up rents….

During the period studied, rents nationwide increased by a whopping 31%, while, in the four reform jurisdictions, they only went up by 1% to 7%. That, despite the fact that all four experienced greater population growth than the national average. The success of Tysons, Virginia is particularly notable, because the northern Virginia area as a whole has experienced a major boom in housing prices over the last decade, driven by increased demand. Tysons’ experience bodes well for the impact of “missing middle” zoning reform recently enacted in  nearby Arlington County, where I live.

The Pew analysis emphasize the benefits of lower rent, which is of obvious value to lower-income households. But at least equally important is the increased ability of people to “move to opportunity” in these jurisdictions, thereby improving both their own prospects and the productivity of the broader economy. Libertarians and other property rights advocates should also welcome the great expansion in property owners’ ability to decide what to build on their land.

Throughout much of the country, zoning is the single biggest constraint on property rights. Zoning is the biggest property rights issue of our time. I say that despite the fact that it isn’t in my interest to do so, given that I have devoted much more of my property scholarship to eminent domain.

“NIMBY” defenders of exclusionary zoning argue that they are necessary to protect the interests of current homeowners in places like Arlington—people like my wife and myself. But, in many ways, we too have much to gain from breaking down zoning restrictions—especially if we have children and we want them to be able to find affordable housing.

In recent years, valuable reforms have been enacted in a number of states and localities, and others are under consideration. But much remains to be done. The progress made in these four jurisdictions is an indication of what can potentially be achieved through broader reform.

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New IRS Migration Data: NY, CA, & IL Are The Big Losers Of People And Wealth; FL & TX The Big Winners

New IRS Migration Data: NY, CA, & IL Are The Big Losers Of People And Wealth; FL & TX The Big Winners

Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner of Wirepoints

Illinois, New York and California continued their streak as the nation’s biggest losers of residents and their wealth to other states, according to a Wirepoints analysis of newly-released Internal Revenue Service migration data

Texas and Florida continued to be the nation’s big winners.

The latest IRS state-by-state migration data is based on tax returns filed in 2020 and 2021, covering taxpayers (tax filers and their dependents) who moved from one state to another between 2019 and 2020 (see appendix for changes in our reporting methodology). 

Florida, the nation’s perennial winner, gained in 2020 the most net people, 256,000, and the most net Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), $39 billion. Texas followed with a gain of 175,000 people and $10.9 billion in AGI.

In contrast, states like California, New York and Illinois once again experienced some of the nation’s biggest losses. California lost more people than any other state, with more than 332,000 net movers taking $29 billion to other states.

Wirepoints’ accompanying Illinois analysis includes a long-term look at out-migration from the state.

Map: Wirepoints Source: IRS SOI migration data Get the data Created with Datawrapper

The IRS migration report provides hard, indisputable data on the movement of Americans between states. The agency reviews tax returns annually to track when and where tax filers and their dependents move. It also aggregates the ages, income brackets and adjusted gross incomes of filers.

Winners and losers

The Sunshine State attracted over $57.9 billion in Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) from 699,000 new residents (tax filers and their dependents) that moved into Florida in 2020. On the flip side, Florida lost $18.7 billion in AGI from 443,000 people who left. On a net basis, Florida came out ahead with 256,000 net new people and $39.2 billion in net new taxable income.

That was a total gain of 3.1 percent of the state’s total AGI ($711 billion).

Texas was the runner up with an AGI income gain of $10.9 billion, followed by Nevada with $4.6 billion. North Carolina and Arizona rounded out the top five with net gains of $4.5 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively. (See Appendix for top 10 winners of people.)

On the losing side, California suffered the worst outflow of money of any state in 2020. The Golden state lost a net $29.1 billion in income, or 2.0 percent of its AGI, while a net of 332,000 residents moved out.

New York was next, losing a net $24.5 billion and 262,000 people. Illinois was 3rd with a net loss of $10.9 billion and 105,000 people. Massachusetts and New Jersey were in 4th and 5th place, with $4.3 and $3.8 billion in income losses, respectively. (See Appendix for top 10 losers of people.)

Tables with each state’s ranking in migration gains/losses are provided below.

The cumulative impact of income losses and gains

The problem with chronic outflows, like in the case of New York, is that one year’s losses don’t only affect the tax base the year they leave, but they also hurt all subsequent years. The losses pile up on top of each other, year after year. And when a state loses income to other states for 21 straight years, the numbers add up.

In 2020 alone, New York would have had nearly $144 billion more in AGI to tax had it not been for the state’s string of yearly migration losses. And when the state’s AGI losses are accumulated from 2000 to 2020, it totals $1.1 trillion in cumulative lost income that could have been taxed over the entire period.

The opposite is true for migration winners like Florida. Gains in people and income pile on top of each other each year, building an ever-growing tax base. In 2020 alone, the state’s tax base was some $230 billion higher due to the 21-year string of positive income gains from net in-migration.

Even though Florida doesn’t tax incomes, Wirepoints also added up Florida’s cumulative AGI to make an apples-to-apples comparison with New York. When the Sunshine State’s AGI gains are accumulated from 2000 to 2020, it totals $1.75 trillion in income that could have been taxed over the entire period.

The competition for people matters

Illinois, one of the nation’s other big losers, shows just how damaging being an “exit” state can be – especially when a state starts to lose its wealthier residents and they are only partially replaced by people who make less. The Illinoisans who fled in 2020 earned, on average, $44,000 more than the residents Illinois gained from other states. That’s the biggest gap since at least 2000, based on Wirepoints’ analysis of the IRS data.

Based on a percentage of total income, Illinois ranked 2nd-worst nationally for income losses in 2020. Illinois lost 2.5 percent of its AGI. Only New York was worse, with a loss of 3.1 percent.

In contrast, Florida was the nation’s big winner on a percentage basis in 2020, gaining 5.5 percent of its AGI base. The nation’s top five were rounded out by Nevada, Idaho, Montana and South Carolina.

******************

The IRS data shows for yet another year Americans chose better managed, less expensive areas over larger, government-centric, high-cost cities and states. And it provides a glimpse of a demographic future in which states that prioritize an affordable, less intrusive government will dominate those that over-tax and over-regulate the lives and businesses of their residents.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/28/2023 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/d0oV6wH Tyler Durden

Large & Small US Banks See Deposit Outflows Continue, Small Bank Lending Growth Tumbled

Large & Small US Banks See Deposit Outflows Continue, Small Bank Lending Growth Tumbled

It’s late on a Friday afternoon, after a total collapse in First Republic (which likely saw massive deposit outflows today as it stock collapsed to low single-digits), and we may get a hint of how bad it was heading into this chaos as The Fed’s H.8 (commercial bank deposit data) just dropped.

After yesterday’s report showed the Fed balance sheet shrinking but bank bailout facility usage higher, total US Commercial Bank deposits rose $21 billion during the week ended 4/19…

Source: Bloomberg

However, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) continued their freefall (during the week-ending 4/19), tumbling $10.4 billion (less than last week) to the lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) tumbled a massive $174 billion (also at its lowest since April 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

Yesterday’s reported resumption of money market fund inflows hints strongly at ongoing outflows from commercial bank deposits

Source: Bloomberg

It is key to remember two things – 1) the deposit data is a week lagged to the MM flow data and 2) it’s tax time and the total deposit outflows are likely driven by corporate tax payment demands…

Both large and small US banks saw outflows last week while foreign banks saw inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

Small banks saw the largest outflows

  • Large Banks -$2.43bn

  • Small Banks -$7.94bn

  • Foreign Banks +$0.728bn

Source: Bloomberg

And on the other side of the ledger, commercial bank lending rose $15.08 billion in the period after increasing $13.8 billion in the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an unadjusted basis, loans and leases rose $20.9 billion after two weeks of loan contractions.

Source: Bloomberg

Small bank loan growth slowed notably with only $4.04bn lent (vs $10.4bn the prior week) while large bank lending re-accelerated to

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, for those who think the crisis is over (and FRC and SVB were outliers), there’s just one more thing. Wondering why regional banks just can’t catch any kind of reasonable bid?

Source: Bloomberg

It’s simple – as we detailed previously (as far back as Nov) – as long as we are above the reserve constraint level for small banks, there is stability courtesy of the Fed’s massive reserve injection.

Source: Bloomberg

It appears Small banks are moving back towards the critical level, and the closer we get to that level, the greater the risk of bank failures and Fed panic.

Finally, we remind readers, this data does not include this week’s potential problems (as the deposit and loan data is lagged by a week).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/28/2023 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/YLH2Zna Tyler Durden

Eleven Minutes Of Media Falsehoods, Just On One Subject, Just On One Station

Eleven Minutes Of Media Falsehoods, Just On One Subject, Just On One Station

Authored by Matt Orfalea and Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

The plan was a comprehensive count. With a sizable team of smart temporary hires, each looking into a different area of the #TwitterFiles, we thought counting all the mainstream news stories that would need retracting or correcting in light of information found in Twitter documents would make for an easy little sidebar, something simple for the public to digest.

The idea seemed easy. We would take a Twitter doc raising questions about a news story and write a suggested note for the story’s editor. In a lot of cases it wasn’t clear the piece was wrong exactly, but that new information might require a call or two to clear up a quote, add an update about a source, correct a fact or two, etc.

In the Files there were around a few dozen discrete incidents in which Twitter had concerns internally, and where the public might want to know what those were. The “Hamilton 68” fiasco, in which a think-tank called the Alliance for Securing Democracy purported to track 600 Twitter accounts linked to “Russian influence activities” but turned out to mostly be following ordinary Americans, Canadians, and British, was an example of a relatively easy fix for an editor. If you used the Hamilton “dashboard” of accounts as a source for a story about “Russian bots,” you probably needed either to retract altogether, or add a note saying the Russian-ness and bot-ness of those accounts has since been called into question.

In a few cases, news organizations have already added editor’s notes as threads were released — we should commend Mother Jones for adding such updates to many of their articles which referenced Hamilton — which gave cause for optimism. Maybe we could convince other reporters and editors to make the corrections ahead of time. How big of a job could that be?

Too big, as it turned out. Once humorously obsessive Matt Orfalea got going on the project, he quickly fell into a funk. He started just by looking just for video clips of broadcast or cable outlets referencing Hamilton 68, and immediately started racking up ridiculous numbers.

The first time he mentioned he was having a fit/time problem with the video, I was skeptical. Orf wasn’t counting print stories at first, and didn’t venture initially into other incidents beyond Ham68. It didn’t seem possible there could there be too many instances to compile on video. But there were. A large part of his logistical problem involved MSNBC, whose extravagant on-air warnings of Russian bots were fattening his compilation. “I thought, ‘If I could only do this without MSNBC, I could get this down to a manageable size,’” he said.

That led to an idea of making a separate video that only chronicled MSNBC making Hamilton-inspired references to Russian bots. “I was relieved,” he said. “I thought, ‘This way, I might be able to make a video about everyone else.’”

The rest of the team eventually had to scrap the idea of counting all the reporting problems suggested by the #TwitterFiles. The amazing, agonizing video above shows why. During the time period in question — mainly the period between 2016 and 2022 — false innuendo generated either by government agencies or so-called “anti-disinformation” sites constituted such a huge part of everyday media coverage that it was almost easier to identify the stories not generated by this subterranean information cartel.

This is part of the new media strategy in the Censorship-Industrial Complex age: in addition to downgrading and deamplifying dissent, fringe political ideas, controversial takes, offensive speech, and, yes, even true errors and foreign propaganda, the CIC softens up audiences to accept certain ideas through sheer, unrelenting repetition. You’re not hearing one or two stories about Russian bots or evil anti-vaxxers or even the treachery of Jill Stein and the Green Party, you’re hearing hundreds just on one channel, and God knows how many more in other outlets and via social media. One’s defenses wear down after a while, and there’s a natural instinct to grow afraid of suggesting the opposite around friends after a while.

What was true of the bot story then is still true of other topics now. How many Ukrainian flag emojis have you seen? How many stories blaming everyone but the obvious suspect for the Nord Stream blast? How relatively nervous are you to say something even mildly counter-narrative about those subjects? Contrary to what we might imagine, conviction can be worn down by volume, like shingles cracking under years of weather.

Lastly, it’s appropriate to use strong language to describe what MSNBC did with Ham68, because they have to have known for a while these reports were problematic. Even the release of the “new” Hamilton 2.0 in 2019, in which the think-tank said it would henceforth only cite sources that “we can directly attribute to the Russian, Chinese, or Iranian governments,” should have been a red flag for anyone who did stories based on their earlier dashboard.

But MSNBC apparently didn’t go back and examine prior claims then, and have repeatedly refused requests by me and others to do so since. They don’t care, and as Orf shows, they don’t care in high, high volume.

Video by Matt Orfalea

Kudos to Orfalea for having the patience and discipline to record all of this in one place with his trademark editing wizardry, creating a video that pounds the insanity of the period into your head so repeatedly that it just might prevent the otherwise inevitable memory-holing of this episode. Eleven minutes thirty! Imagine how much video it would have taken to capture the list we tried to make.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/28/2023 – 16:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ciOavT5 Tyler Durden

Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Surge Amid Week Of Stagflationary & Systemic Threats

Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Surge Amid Week Of Stagflationary & Systemic Threats

A week of disappointment in macro with stagflation very much back on the table…

Source: Bloomberg

Increasing banking system threats with FRC literally collapsing…

…but the ‘rest’ surviving based on stocks, but credit markets ain’t buying what stocks are selling…

Source: Bloomberg

And looming US debt defaults…

Source: Bloomberg

…was ignored by stocks this week as mega-cap tech gains dragged Nasdaq notably higher (along with the S&P and Dow) while Small Caps lagged…

Of course, the illusion of earnings ‘beats’ has helped… as Goldman notes, the bar was very low coming into this earnings period.

Consensus expectations were for EPS to fall by 7% year/year, the largest decline since 3Q 2020 and a significant deterioration from the -1% year/year growth posted in 4Q 2022. This is not playing out and as a result the market is hanging tough.

Good News: So far earnings have been much better than feared with 54% of companies beating consensus estimates by at least 1SD (vs historical avg of 48%). Only 10% of companies have missed consensus estimates by at least 1SD (vs historical avg of 14%).


 
Bad News: The companies that are beating consensus ests by >1SD are only outperforming the S&P 500 by 40bps on the trading session directly following earnings. Typically beats outperform the S&P 500 by over 100bps. The few companies that are missing these low bars are being severely punished, underperforming the S&P 500 by -290bps vs historical avg of -211bps.

But the equity market had help from its 0DTE pals  the last two days as the call-grab was unleashed. Yesterday and most of today saw 0DTE call-buyers run riot, lifting the S&P easily back into the green for the week. We do note that late on today, there was some serious negative-delta flow (profit-taking) into the weekend…

Source: SpotGamma

Which sparked a remarkable short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was lower on the week, down considerably from the early week tag of 20. However, 1-Day VIX (tracking 0DTE) ended notably higher with every day looking the same: an opening gap down and persistent vol bid all day…

Source: Bloomberg

On the month, Nasdaq’s last few days got it back to unchanged while The Dow was the month’s biggest gainer and Trannies and Small Caps the biggest losers…

Source: Bloomberg

Year-to-date, the Nasdaq continues to roar while the S&P 500 treads water at levels we’ve seen before…

Source: Bloomberg

While stocks were higher on the week, bond yields ended the week lower with the entire curve down around 11-13bps by the end, as mid-week underperformance of the long-end compressed…

Source: Bloomberg

On the month the picture was even less distributed with yields practically unchanged (belly modestly outperforming as wings underperform)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended April marginally lower (its 6th month drop of the last seven months)

Source: Bloomberg

Solana, Bitcoin, & Ethereum all had a solid month while Ripple was down notably…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid a very volatile week, Bitcoin was notably higher, pushing back above $29,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil managed very modest gains on the month having erased all of the post-OPEC+ production-cut spike that started the month off. NatGas did the opposite, soaring after a kneejerk lower on OPEC. Perhaps most ominously, we note that copper was hammered on the month as growth fears and China reopening hopes fade (that’s the third straight mont of drops for Dr.Copper)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended April higher (though by less than 1%) for its 5th positive month of the last six, having tested near record highs and holding around $2,000…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI managed to close back above pre-OPEC+ level thanks to today’s bounce, but oil overall remains rangebound broadly speaking between 74 and 81…

Finally, we note that the top 10 stocks are responsible for 86% of the overall index return YTD

“To infinity and beyond” for ‘safe haven’ mega-cap tech appears to be the mantra of the market once again, but be careful what you wish for as this narrow breadth often dangerous (see NDX vs NDXE in Nov’08, Oct’18, Dec’21)…

And talking of the future, congrats to Nico on the internship. Enjoy and soak up everything you hear.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/28/2023 – 16:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/4FywHjL Tyler Durden