Month: May 2023

SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk held a Twitter Space discussion regarding the recent Starship rocket launch. Although the launch experienced several engine failures and other issues leading to a loss of control and activation of the automatic flight termination system, Musk considered it to have met his expectations. He expects that SpaceX will invest $2 billion in Starship’s development this year, with the next launch planned in a few months. 

“The outcome was roughly sort of what I expected and maybe slightly exceeded my expectations,” Musk said, adding Starship was able to achieve flight and a “significant” amount of data was able to be collected, including through maximum dynamic pressure or “MAX-Q.” He said, “Overall, I actually feel like that was a great flight.” 

About 72.4k of Musk’s subscribers tuned into the hour-long discussion last night. Musk offered a recap of the flight. He provided the understanding that troubles began during liftoff when 3 of the 33 Raptor engines either failed to ignite or were aborted during launch. “Those engines did not explode, but the system didn’t think they were healthy enough to bring them to full thrust,” Musk said. 

This is not a render. This is not a simulation. This is @SpaceX’s first integrated test flight of #Starship with the Super Heavy booster, the world’s largest and most powerful rocket to ever fly. This #slomo is from our 8k tracker shot by @considercosmos. pic.twitter.com/srxmuStn2N

— Everyday Astronaut (@Erdayastronaut) April 21, 2023

Musk further noted that a minimum of 30 Raptor engines were required for liftoff, resulting in a noticeable tilt of the rocket as it blasted off from SpaceX Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, on April 20. 

Musk said the automatic flight termination system took “way too long” to trigger as the rocket veered off course. He noted the termination system would need to be requalified before the next launch, which could be in six to eight weeks. 

“Hopefully, we’ll be ready to fly again in a couple of months,” Musk said. 

Musk said the next Starship launch would have a higher probability of achieving orbit:

“I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit”… there’s almost an 80%-plus probability of doing so, increasing to nearly 100% within 12 months. 

Musk said SpaceX will spend upwards of $2 billion this year on Starship developments. He said this could all be done without outside funding. 

It appears the world’s largest rocket ever built is set to fly again. 

Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams, 

In the name of “protecting future generations from potentially devastating consequences,” a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday introduced legislation meant to prevent artificial intelligence from launching nuclear weapons without meaningful human control.

The Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Act—introduced by Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Reps. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Don Beyer (D-Va.), and Ken Buck (R-Colo.)—asserts that “any decision to launch a nuclear weapon should not be made” by AI.

The proposed legislation acknowledges that the Pentagon’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review states that current U.S. policy is to “maintain a human ‘in the loop’ for all actions critical to informing and executing decisions by the president to initiate and terminate nuclear weapon employment.”

The bill would codify that policy so that no federal funds could be used “to launch a nuclear weapon [or] select or engage targets for the purposes of launching” nukes.

“As we live in an increasingly digital age, we need to ensure that humans hold the power alone to command, control, and launch nuclear weapons—not robots,” Markey asserted in a statement. “We need to keep humans in the loop on making life-or-death decisions to use deadly force, especially for our most dangerous weapons.”

Buck argued that “while U.S. military use of AI can be appropriate for enhancing national security purposes, use of AI for deploying nuclear weapons without a human chain of command and control is reckless, dangerous, and should be prohibited.”

According to the 2023 AI Index Report—an annual assessment published earlier this month by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence—36% of surveyed AI experts worry about the possibility that automated systems “could cause nuclear-level catastrophe.”

The report followed a February assessment by the Arms Control Association, an advocacy group, that AI and other emerging technologies including lethal autonomous weapons systems and hypersonic missiles pose a potentially existential threat that underscores the need for measures to slow the pace of weaponization.

“While we all try to grapple with the pace at which AI is accelerating, the future of AI and its role in society remains unclear,” Lieu said in a statement introducing the new bill.

AI is amazing and has made our lives better. It can also kill us. No matter how smart AI becomes, it can never have control over nuclear weapons.

I introduced bipartisan legislation with @RepKenBuck @RepDonBeyer and Sen @EdMarkey to require a human to launch any nuclear weapon. https://t.co/GWFtldq21N

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) April 26, 2023

“It is our job as members of Congress to have responsible foresight when it comes to protecting future generations from potentially devastating consequences,” he continued. “That’s why I’m pleased to introduce the bipartisan, bicameral Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous AI Act, which will ensure that no matter what happens in the future, a human being has control over the employment of a nuclear weapon—not a robot.”

“AI can never be a substitute for human judgment when it comes to launching nuclear weapons,” Lieu added.

While dozens of countries support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, none of the world’s nine nuclear powers, including the United States, have signed on, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reawakened fears of nuclear conflict that were largely dormant since the Cold War.

Despite a growing number of ways to pay in shops, restaurants or online, cash remains the most widespread method of payment in a many countries.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, While some nations in Western and Northern Europe as well as in the Americas and Oceania have shifted to more card payments, much of Asia and Africa continues to run on cash.

You will find more infographics at Statista

There are also notable example among highly developed nations to the card payment trend: In Germany, 73 percent most recently said they had paid in cash in the past 12 months, while only 56 percent had used debit cards and only 18 percent had used mobile phones for payment. The results of the survey were similar in Austria, Poland, Italy and Spain as well as Japan – another stronghold of cash payments.

According to Statista’s Consumer Insights, respondents in English-speaking nations, in Scandinavian and Benelux countries as well as in Brazil, Chile, South Korea, Russia and France preferred card payments.

Despite popular belief, debit cards were more popular than credit cards in the U.S. and also across most other nations. Denmark, France and South Korea emerged as the biggest credit card lovers among the 38 nationalities in the survey and were the only ones using the type of payment more than all others methods.

The U.S. was also not the biggest nation of check users in the survey.

While 13 percent of Americans said they had used them in the past 12 months, this was topped by 14 percent of Swiss people, 16 percent of Indians and 20 percent of French respondents.

The only country in the survey where mobile payments had overtaken all other payment types was China, where 67 percent had used their phones to pay in the past year. India, Indonesia and Nigeria were two more countries with high rates of phone payments – in the case of India and Indonesia even overtaking debit cards.

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

• Physical nickel markets have become oversupplied in 2023.

• A new wave of supply from Indonesia has put prices under pressure.

• International Nickel Study Group: the nickel market will face a supply-demand surplus of 239,000 tonnes.

Last year,  the nickel markets came into the limelight courtesy of the historic nickel short squeeze that sent nickel prices soaring to an astonishing $100,000 per tonne.

The massive surge doubled the previous all-time high over the course of one morning and plunged the London Metal Exchange into an existential crisis. And, just like the famous copper squeeze of more than a century ago, the nickel market snafu was largely linked to enormous short positions held by a single man: Chinese metal trader Xiang Guangda, the founder of China-based Tsingshan Holding, the world’s biggest nickel producer.

And now the exact opposite is happening in the nickel markets, only that this time around it’s the physical nickel markets and not nickel futures or a single trader that are to blame for the crash. Nickel prices have crashed in the current year, falling 21% in the year-to-date to $23,300 per tonne thanks to a massive supply glut as Indonesian production continues to outpace global demand. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the nickel market will face a supply-demand surplus of 239,000 tonnes, the largest in at least a decade and more than double last year’s excess of 105,000 tonnes. That revised figure is also way higher than the group’s last forecast in October when it expected the surplus to clock in at 171,000 tonnes in 2023.

Although global nickel demand is on track to register healthy 6.1% growth in 2023, matching last year’s demand growth, it won’t be anywhere near enough to absorb the wave of new production coming out of Indonesia. 

Spot Nickel Prices (USD/metric ton)

Source: Bloomberg

It’s quite surprising that nickel demand even rose at all in 2022 considering the World Stainless Association reported that stainless steel output fell 5.2% during the year. The stainless steel industry is the biggest consumer of nickel, gobbling up 75% of global production in a typical year. China is mainly to blame for the weakening nickel demand after the removal of subsidies and the shift towards non-nickel chemistries.

That said, EVs are quickly becoming an important nickel consumer. According to research house Adamas Intelligence, 17,137 tonnes of nickel were deployed in EV batteries in the month of February alone, good for 19% month-on-month and 47% Y/Y growth. 

Although the EV sector is growing at a brisk clip, it will still struggle to absorb surging production from the likes of Indonesia. INSG’s most recent monthly bulletin has reported that the country’s nickel mine output grew a huge 48% to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022 and by another 44% in the first two months of the current year. Indonesia slapped a full ban on the export of ore in 2020, meaning that all that mine output is now being converted to nickel products.

But not all nickel grades are facing a supply glut.

Indeed, whereas the supply of Class II nickel–containing less than 99.8% nickel–continues to grow rapidly, supply of Class I nickel–the grade traded on the LME–has declined 28% so far this year to 40,032 tonnes, the lowest level since 2007. Shanghai registered nickel stocks are even lower at just 1,496 tonnes thanks to China’s imports of refined nickel being increasingly replaced with intermediate products heading for the EV sector. The contango across the benchmark cash-to-three-months spread has contracted from over $200 per tonne in early April to just $12 currently, suggesting traders are growing more bearish about future nickel prices.

China Nickel pig iron 8-12% (Yuan / metric tonne)

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities Pullback

But the nickel markets are hardly alone. After a raging bull market in 2022, global commodity markets have been pulling back in 2023 with the World Bank predicting that global commodity prices will decline this year at the fastest clip since COVID-19 pandemic struck in late 2019.

According to the bank, overall commodity prices will contract 21% in 2023 relative to 2022, with energy prices projected to fall 26%. Brent crude oil is expected to average $84 a barrel this year, down 16% Y/Y, while U.S. and European natural-gas prices are forecast to be cut in half. Meanwhile, coal prices are expected to fall 42% in 2023 while fertilizer prices are also projected to decrease 37%, marking the largest annual drop since 1976. However, fertilizer prices are still close to their recent high seen during the 2008-09 food crisis.

Unfortunately, the World Bank says that falling food prices will bring little relief to the more than 350 million people facing food insecurity across the globe due to the fact that although food prices are expected to fall 8% in the current year, they will still be at the second-highest level since 1975.

It’s been 10 years since the Rana Plaza factory collapse in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka, where more than 1,100 people died and over 2,600 were injured.

Known as the clothing industry’s deadliest disaster, the event triggered a global response with pressure from the international community to scrutinize the health and safety procedures of the fashion and textiles industry. It led to the swift implementation of the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh, which gave unions greater power and has provided a framework to hold fashion brands accountable for the welfare of their factory employees.

Rolled out in 2013, the accord was considered a major step forwards for workers rights, with more than 220 brands pledging to join it. In August 2021, brands and unions agreed on a new International Accord, which is intended to allow for the expansion of the agreement’s work to other countries.

While certainly a move in the right direction, Statista’s Anna Fleck reports that campaigners stress that a lot of work is still to be done. For example, according to the Clean Clothes Campaign, several household names have failed to sign the new treaty, including the likes of Amazon, Levi’s, IKEA and Walmart.

The following chart zooms out to give an overview of the state of workers’ rights around the world, using data compiled by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC). According to their analysis, Bangladesh was rated in the lowest category for workers rights by to the International Trade Union Confederation (save for places where a general breakdown of the rule of law was identified). The organization also said it saw the country towards the bottom of that category, together with Belarus, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Eswatini, the Philippines, Guatemala, Myanmar and Turkey. The ITUC ranked 148 countries based on the right to freedom of association, the right to collective bargaining and the right to strike, giving each nation a score of 1-5+, where 1=sporadic violations of rights and 5+=no guarantee of rights due to breakdown of the rule of law.

You will find more infographics at Statista

As this infographic shows, only a few select countries received the green mark of approval – all of which are in Europe. The rest of the world shows a less hopeful picture, with 87 percent of countries having violated their workers’ right to strike in 2022, up from 63 percent in 2014. According to the report, trade unionists were murdered in 13 countries last year, with Colombia the deadliest nation.

Last year, the Middle East and North Africa received the worst score of the regions on the Global Rights Index with an average of 4.53. It was followed by the Asia-Pacific with 4.22, Africa with 3.76, the Americas with 3.52 and Europe with 2.49. The Asia-Pacific region saw its average rating worsen slightly in 2021 from 4.17 to 4.22 the following year.

While the chart considers not only garment workers but all workers generally, ITUC analysts explain that in Bangladesh, the garment industry is one of the biggest sectors, employing more than 4.5 million people. The country received a score of 5, signifying that there is no guarantee of rights to workers.

According to the report, workers experienced violence in 43 percent of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 35 percent in 2021. In Bangladesh, workers strikes were met with brutality by the authorities, with at least five killed, while attempts at forming unions were shut down. India and Pakistan too saw police brutality against workers, while authorities in Hong Kong clamped down on trade unions and pro-democracy organizations and human rights abuses continued in Myanmar. In China, persecuted minorities were detained by the authorities and coerced into forced labor to fuel the garment industry.

The ITUC sends questionnaires to national unions around the world to report violations of workers’ rights. These are recorded each year from April to March and verified. Each country is then analyzed against 97 indicators based on ILO conventions and jurisprudence to create an index reflecting violations of workers’ rights in law and practice.

Via Remix News,

Nineteen American in-flight refueling aircraft will be stationed at the Powidz Air Base in western Poland. According to the U.S. magazine Stars and Stripes, this is the latest sign that U.S. Armed Forces are shifting combat resources to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

The U.S. Air Force command in Europe confirmed that on March 10 of this year “American air tankers began working in their new main location in Poland.”

This was done as part of operation “Copper Arrow,” which demonstrated the efforts of the U.S. military command in Europe to “strengthen security on NATO’s eastern flank through forward deployed and stationed forces.”

“The cooperation of American air tankers with our NATO allies clearly shows how much we value our partnerships and how important it is to increase our interoperability,” said Colonel Timothy Foery, advisor to the U.S. Air Force Reserve Commander.

Foery noted that interoperability is evident when looking “at any photo of a KC-135 refueling a Polish F-16 or a KC-46 refueling a Finnish F/A-18.”

American air tankers KC-135 Stratotanker, KC-10 Extender and the newest in the U.S. Air Force fleet, KC-46 Pegasus, could all be sent to the Powidz Air Base.

The aircraft currently stationed at the Spangdahlem base in Germany, will be transferred to the Powidz air base as Unit 1. As emphasized by the U.S. Air Force leadership, this relocation also demonstrates “the ability of U.S. command to quickly deploy large, credible combat forces and equipment throughout Europe.”

The tankers stationed in Powidz can be used for refueling combat aircraft, including the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the F-35A Lightning II, which extends the range of NATO air missions. Stars and Stripes notes that eight F-35 aircraft of the Dutch Air Force have been stationed in the Malbork air base in Poland for several months.

#Watch a @USAFReserve KC-46 Pegasus refuel a Finnish F/A-18s for the first time in Finland airspace, as part of a @HQUSAFEAFAF partnership exercise called Copper Arrow. #TogetherWeDeliver @FinnishAirForce pic.twitter.com/awMoN0axD1

— USTRANSCOM (@US_TRANSCOM) April 20, 2023

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the presence of U.S. forces in Europe has increased, with the number of U.S. military personnel on the continent growing from 80,000 to 100,000.

U.S. Ambassador to Warsaw Mark Brzezinski recently stated that over 10,000 American soldiers are in Poland.

“The U.S. military’s shift to the east is another example of the United States’ efforts to create a permanent presence in the former Warsaw Pact country, an important member of NATO, which has over 300 miles of border with Ukraine,” said reporter Jennifer Svan in Stars and Stripes.

A month ago, the United States officially established its first permanent base in Poland. The U.S. Army garrison in Poznań, located about 100 kilometers from Powidz, will support the V Corps of the Army, which oversees NATO missions in the east.

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time,

Younguns is a folksy term used mainly by people with a few years under their belt to refer to those far younger. Sometimes this term focuses on those under thirty. These people often don’t realize those injuries they see as badges of honor will far too soon turn to aches and pain. Today I find myself at low-ebb, it may be a combination of too much work and a recent birthday taking its toll.

Adding to this is the reality that we live in a world that has made a mockery of hard work and savings, this is a major disservice to those carrying the load. Many people fail to take into account that the socialist agenda of the far left is in many ways anti-social. As we look around it is easy to see that much of the workforce has gone full “John Galt” and decided not to participate in the job market. Much of this is driven by the notion that hard work does not pay big dividends and we might as well dump our problems off onto those stupid enough to accept them.  

Society and politicians are rapidly dismantling the rights of ownership. This transfer of rights constitutes a transfer of wealth whether we wish to call it by that name or not. This is the main reason so many of the most capable contributors to our economy are now moving toward the sidelines. Capable and smart people do not have to work hard to make ends meet and are proving this by going out and enjoying life rather than working to support those that won’t. When people decide to remove themselves from a game they see as rigged in favor of those far less deserving it is an indication of greater problems ahead.

Still, make no mistake, the left claiming it is “progressive” has no intention of melting quietly into the night. I fear those both in the middle and on the right that think things will turn around are overly optimistic. Those on the right often point to California as a failed state. They use as an example drug-infested San Fransisco. At the end of 2021, it was estimated that of the city’s roughly 8,124 people that were at the time “unhoused,” a full 73 percent were “unsheltered.”  This means they sleep out of doors, in tents, and under highway overpasses.

Catch-22 Is A Real Thing

What is being cast upon us is breeding a culture that lacks accountability. The legal system is failing. From the smallest to the largest issues we face, it seems few are being resolved in a way most people find uplifting. More often than we would like we are running smack dab into the proverbial catch-22 situations that try our souls. A catch-22 is a paradoxical situation from which an individual cannot escape because of contradictory rules or limitations. The term was coined by Joseph Heller, who used it in his 1961 novel Catch-22.

While much of the country views high taxes, rampant drug use, and crime as the reason many major retailers are closing stores in the state, its Governor is being touted as a candidate for the Presidency in 2024. The bad news is that if you think it can’t get any worse, you are wrong. Sadly, society has turned onto a fast path to ruin downward. A slew of lightweight JV thinkers have taken us down the rabbit hole when it comes to creating a better future.

We Need A Hero, But None Is In Sight

It could be argued that those on the far left have been joined by, or are being egged on and encouraged by those wishing to weaken the United States from the inside. Russia and China are generally painted as the villains in such a scenario. The real problem we face is that true leadership tends not to exist in a vacuum. The fact is that we need a hero and they are in short supply. It has been said, the “pioneers took all the arrows,” meaning it is much safer to travel west today. It also means people of real value will most likely be destroyed if they attempt to move to the front.

A feeling of hopelessness recently descended upon me when I became a victim of vandalism. How do you protect what can not be protected? The catch-22 here is that you have a very difficult time insuring an empty building but how do you rent it when it is constantly being ripped apart by vandals? While not the economic disaster that will end me, such events are “mentally” troubling. It is also why so many people shy away from owning hard assets, this applies to gold, real estate, and more. Readers of AdvancingTime know not owning “real things” is an investment strategy I consider problematic. 

The efforts of those in power to paint vandalism of private property as mischief is the reason so many Americans when given the chance, op to live in gated communities. In truth, we cannot “gate off” everything. This reflects society’s inability to make people behave. The failure of people to take responsibility for their actions signals greater problems ahead.

It does not help that we are facing a toxic mix when it comes to protecting our freedom. Big companies are predatory and big governments are stupid. The thing they have in common is they both want more control and power. In truth, we are the underdog in this ongoing struggle for control of our lives and progressives are promoting policies that empower those that want to control us. Throw in the likelihood of an economic reset or hard landing and you might say, if you think it can’t get any worse, you are wrong. Lowering your expectations may be in order.

In many regions of the world, workplace safety has drastically increased over the last couple of decades, ensuring healthy working environments for many employees. As the collapse of Rana Plaza, a nine-story building in Bangladesh housing several garment workshops connected in large part to the fast fashion industry, ten years ago shows, there is still lots of room for improvement though. Research quoted by the International Labor Organization (ILO) suggests that in 2017 alone, 2.8 million people died and a further 374 million people suffered non-fatal injuries in their line of work.

As Statista’s Florian Zandt details below, according to data from ILO, Costa Rica currently has the highest number of work-related injuries with 9,421 non-fatal as well as 9.7 fatal occupational injuries per 100,000 workers in 2016. For decades, the nation’s economy relied heavily on agriculture and tourism. Since the turn of the millennium, manufacturing and industry have surpassed the agricultural sector, with companies like Intel or Procter & Gamble heavily investing in the country. According to media reports, Intel’s microprocessor facility was responsible for five percent of the total GDP and 20 percent of all Costa Rican exports in 2006.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Anecdotal evidence from other countries suggests that the aforementioned focus on industry and manufacturing might also be responsible for the high number of fatal occupational injuries. While Costa Rica doesn’t provide segregated data on fatal injuries by economic activity, Mexico and Turkey, which rank ninth and tenth in terms of non-fatal as well as second and third in terms of fatal occupational injuries, do. In Mexico, for example, out of 806 work-related deaths, 118 people died in the manufacturing, 76 in the construction and 86 in the transportation and storage sectors. Turkey registered 386 deaths in construction, 297 deaths in manufacturing and 258 deaths in transportation and storage out of a total of 1,394.

Nations known for their textile industries like Pakistan and Portugal also make the top list of the countries with the most occupational injuries per 100,00 workers. While independent auditors regularly check and sign off on labor practices and working conditions in the fashion industries of the aforementioned countries, the reality is often far grimmer than official assessments suggest. A report by NGO Human Rights Watch on Pakistan’s garment workers from 2019, for example, points out companies failing to pay their employees the minimum wage, a lack of written contracts, firings of pregnant women and pay deductions for sick days.