No, Corporate Greed Didn’t Cause the 2023 Egg Price Shock


topicseconomics

As inflation raised prices on all manner of goods throughout 2022, eggs earned special attention. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the average price of a dozen eggs in urban areas rose from $1.92 in January 2022 to $4.82 in January 2023. Supply and demand explain the increase, but you wouldn’t know that if you listened only to progressives.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) and former Clinton administration Labor Secretary Robert Reich both blamed “corporate greed” for the price hikes. The anti-corporate advocacy group Farm Action claimed “the real culprit” was “a collusive scheme among industry leaders” to “extract egregious profits reaching as high as 40 percent.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) and Rep. Katie Porter (D–Calif.) said the high prices “raise concerns about price gouging” by egg suppliers.

There was a more plausible explanation. An avian flu outbreak devastated the poultry industry throughout 2022. By the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), there were 43 million fewer egg-laying hens than in February 2022. Egg inventories fell 29 percent from January to December. When demand outstrips supply, prices go up.

A similar outbreak in late 2014 affected more than 50 million birds. According to Fed data, egg prices rose from $1.96 a dozen in May 2015 to $2.96 in September 2015 before falling for more than a year afterward.

The 2022 outbreak, by contrast, persisted into 2023. At the same time, general inflation was unusually high: 6.5 percent in 2022, compared to 0.7 percent in 2015. “Like consumers,” the American Feed Industry Association noted in January 2023, “feed manufacturers are feeling the effects of inflation on the economy and are paying increased rates for energy, shipping, labor and ingredients.” So even as the number of hens dropped, the cost of feeding them rose.

The good news is that egg prices began falling after January’s high. Average egg prices fell from $4.82 a dozen in January to $4.21 in February and $3.45 in March. The USDA predicted that, barring an avian flu resurgence, prices would continue to fall throughout the year.

The post No, Corporate Greed Didn't Cause the 2023 Egg Price Shock appeared first on Reason.com.

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OPEC+ Discussing 1 Million Bpd Output Cut

OPEC+ Discussing 1 Million Bpd Output Cut

Oil prices were trading up on Friday afternoon as shorts got a little nervous heading into the OPEC+ weekend, with new rumors circulating about the group’s discussions about another 1 million bpd in production cuts.

The OPEC+ group is scheduled for three separate meetings beginning this weekend and concluding on June 4.

While the general sentiment has been that the group will keep the status quo as far as production targets are concerned. But Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister has made boisterous threats against oil’s speculators in the runup to the meeting, saying that shorts will be “ouching”.

On Thursday, Reuters suggested that the OPEC+ group would be unlikely to deepen its production targets at the meeting this weekend.

But late on Friday, Reuters suggested that OPEC+ was indeed discussing an additional output cut of around 1 million barrels “among possible options” for the meeting on June 4.

“Everything is on the table,” Iran’s OPEC Governor Amir Zamaninia told reporters in the Austrian capital.

Crude oil prices were already trading up ahead of the meeting, but increased even more in the afternoon hours, bringing Brent crude to $76.32 at 4:20 p.m., a $2.06 per barrel increase on the day. WTI was trading at $71.90 per barrel at that time.

A supply reduction of as much as 1 million barrels a day is the most likely outcome, according to RBC’s Chief Commodities Strategist Helima Croft.

“We think that the continued macro worries and soured sentiment will lead the group to make another downward adjustment,” she said in a note.

But Saudi Arabia appears to still be in control of OPEC+, and The Kingdom could decide to make good on his threats to punish short sellers for their speculative trades that fly in the face of market fundamentals.

I keep advising them (referencing oil speculators) that they will be ouching, they did ouch in April, I don’t have to show my cards. I am not a poker player…but I would just tell them watch out,” Saudi’s energy minister said late last month in the runup to the meeting.

As a reminder for why there could be some “ouching”. Bloomberg shows, the trading positions of hedge funds and other non-commercial traders are at the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts…

Finally, while hedge funds are betting that OPEC is quietly overproducing and exporting much more than their recent quota permits, a recent update by Goldman Sachs shows that bears may be in for a very rude awakening, as seaborne net exports by OPEC countries which announced a cut in April have finally tumbled by over 1mmb/d over the past 2 weeks.

OPEC+ has suggested with its latest moves that its sweet price spot is around $80-90 per barrel, so it is trying to keep prices around that level.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/04/2023 – 07:35

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Failures Of An Economic Hitman In Turkey: Erdogan Re-elected

Failures Of An Economic Hitman In Turkey: Erdogan Re-elected

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

President Erdogan’s re-election in Turkey is a monumental failure of Western pressure. Because of it, it’s time to take our eyes off Ukraine and look at a different theater of World War III with equal if not bigger implications.

Turkey is another in a now long string of failed Economic Hitman operations cum Color Revolutions. The last big one to fail was in Belarus in 2020 following the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko.

Turkey has been the subject of a seven-year campaign to be rid of Erdogan, beginning with the 2016 coup attempt organized out of the NATO airbase at Incerlik. Turkey’s been through a persistent five-year brutal devaluation of its currency, the lira, seeing it drop from less than 2 versus the US dollar to nearly 21 this week in the wake of Erdogan’s victory.

I’ve covered this story in detail (see my Turkey archives here) being one of the lone voices out there trying to parse Erdogan’s monetary policy actions which I’ve argued sought to de-dollarize Turkey’s foreign exchange liabilities and forge an independent path.

Erdogan, wily as a fox, has been deftly playing the US and Russia/China off each other for years, positioning Turkey simultaneously as a member of NATO, the gatekeeper to the Black Sea, and the financial and trade crossroads linking East and West.

The West’s campaign to overthrow President Assad in Syria beginning in 2011 couldn’t have gone forward without Erdogan’s help. He went along with it very willingly having been promised Turkey claiming Idlib province in the West and taking most of the north. Vladimir Putin accepting Assad’s invitation for assistance in fighting ISIS and Erdogan’s pets in Idlib (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS) began the unraveling of those plans.

Turkey shooting down a Russian SU-31 in November 2015 was supposed to push Putin to war against Turkey, giving NATO every reason to engage the Russians directly. But Putin and Erdogan came to an understanding over this incident, implying that it wasn’t on Erdogan’s orders the Russian plane was shot down, but rather the usual suspects at Foggy Bottom, Langley, GCHQ in London who did.

If you wonder why I’m never worried by the latest lame attempt to draw Russia into a wider conflict in Ukraine by events like the Nordstream or Kerch Strait bridge bombings it was Putin’s handling of this moment with Erdogan and then later the shooting down of the Russian IL-20 ELINT plane over Syria by someone who definitely wasn’t Syria, who took the blame to avert WWIII.

These were moments where Russia and NATO were being pressed into conflict and Putin refused to follow the ready-made Tom Clancy script prepared for him by the spooks who never seem to run out of at-bats no matter how many times they strike out.

It is against this background that we have to analyze the complete failure that is the West’s campaign to unseat Erdogan and his AKP party from power in Turkey.

The ZIRP years in the West coincided with the big degradation of Turkey’s finances as Erdogan invited Western investment into the country to support his territorial ambitions. But, Erdogan, as pointed out by Baris Doster of Marmara University noted:

The government at the head of Turkiye is extremely pragmatic, which is expressed in the ability to make a sharp turn in foreign policy,” Doster told Sputnik.

“There are many examples of this: these are relations with Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. When relations with the East are not going well, Turkiye turns to the West, and in case of difficulties with the West, it turns to the East. However, in the current situation, I believe that the existing political vector will remain intact.”

I agree. In effect, Erdogan’s pragmatism led him to nearly every move he’s made over the past decade, going along with NATO when they were on the offensive, but quickly pivoting and cutting bait on a policy the minute they were put on the defensive, c.f. my above comments about Syria.

In fact, it’s easy to argue that Erdogan’s breaking point with the West over Syria is what has dominated geopolitical headlines for the past seven years. He relishes the role as the guy with the leverage over all NATO policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, whose access he controls thanks to the 1936 Treaty of Montreaux.

He’s still holding Sweden’s entry hostage, something I get the feeling the new government in Stockholm prefers.

With his re-election and Turkey’s finances improving Turkey’s importance will only grow. He will not leave NATO willingly, instead using his veto power to slow the roll of the neocons, Eurocrats, and globalists who have betrayed not only him but Turkey. For all of his aspirations, Erdogan is a Turkish nationalist through and through.

He will now throw more sand in the gearworks of NATO’s plans for wider conflict in the region from Ukraine to Iran and Armenia until the West kicks Turkey out or someone assassinates him.

All the while he will continue to invite Russian, Iranian and Chinese money into Turkey with the goal of lowering its dependence on foreign energy trades settled in the dollar.

The Turkish people have given him another five years to complete this transition away from the West to an independent trade hub. If the West is smart they will not antagonize him further.

I was asked by Sputnik News for my thoughts earlier this week on these issues directly. You can find my comments in these two articles (here and here). As always, I am publishing the full Q&A below the break in the interests of transparency and to ensure that the context of my comments haven’t been lost.

In the run-up to election day on 28 May, the Turkish lira came under unprecedented pressure from major financial giants. For example, analysts of Western banks JPMorgan Chase and HSBC Holdings began to spread information about the inevitable weakening of the lira to levels of 24-25 lire per dollar. We also saw many other Western financial investors short selling the Turkish lira.

Here are the questions we were thinking about:

Why do you think that Western financial giants have taken these moves against the lira in recent days? Could this be an effort to influence the Turkish election?

Yes, absolutely. The US has made no bones about their unhappiness with the way President Erdogan has conducted foreign policy in recent years. I’ve felt and published previously that the lira has been under consistent foreign actor attack since the summer of 2018, when this issue first reared its ugly head.

Back then only the admission that Italian and French banks had loaded up on dollar-denominated Turkish corporate debt, putting their balance sheets at risk ended that round of pressure. Erdogan, for his part, saw the situation for what it was and took control over the central bank to wrest control of monetary policy from the IMF.

There was little option and the lira was destined for this hyper-devaluation versus the dollar. Turkey’s net foreign exchange liability position, which in 2018 was over $240 billion, was its Achilles heel.

Today that number is down to ~$80 billion, according to recent Bank of Turkey data. So, while the situation is improving, it is still the vector on which Erdogan is most vulnerable. To fix this Erdogan has rightly invited Chinese and Russian capital into Turkey and cut major energy deals with Putin to mitigate their chronic current account and trade deficits as a major energy importer.

So, yes, financial and monetary instability, crushing hyperinflation of the lira, and questionable geopolitical interventions have undermined Erdogan’s popular support putting him in today’s runoff election.

The recent notes from US banks are simply pushing the situation to the extreme. Turkey has few options but to continue to de-dollarize.

Who do you think the Biden admin and Western financial giants prefer in this election? Why?

Clearly not Erdogan. They have put considerable support behind his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu, cobbling together a Not-Erdogan “Table of Six” coalition which is the only thing they agree on. It is reminiscent of last year’s Not-Orban coalition in Hungary.

The results there were far more embarrassing for the EU/US neoliberals because Orban wasn’t dealing with the chronic currency issues plaguing Erdogan. That said, Erdogan’s victory wasn’t really in doubt after the general election which he nearly won outright.

Biden and Europe want a Turkey loyal to NATO and their program to maximally confront the Russia/China/Iran axis. Erdogan has been a thorn in that program since late 2015 and Russia’s intervention in Syria laid bare both his and NATO’s complicity in balkanizing it.

He has played both sides against each other to forge an independent path for Turkey. Many of his moves have been questionable but viewed through that lens the pattern of his behavior is quite clear. His attempts to forge a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia last year was likely the last straw for the West.

Turkey is the lynchpin to the Eastern Mediterranean and continued US presence in the Middle East. Despite the economic troubles of Turkey, he was able to communicate them as continued US anti-Arab behavior. From here, with him in power for another four years (and likely the last four), he has a big task in front of him to stabilize Turkey’s finances. He’s already made the case successfully that NATO turned its back on Turkey, now he’s going to have to turn that into a definitive policy.

Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policy has been the topic of extensive discussion among Western economists. What is your assessment of it?

I’ve written about this in detail in the past here. Erdogan’s ‘unconventional’ monetary policy was the basis for his exit strategy from the West for Turkey. Erdogan challenged conventional IMF policy of raising interest rates to attract foreign investors.

Why would you want to attract the same people who previously pulled their money out of your country, destabilizing it. Foreign capital inflow under this model is just blackmail, leaving the government dependent on foreign largesse.

If they don’t like your policies, they pull their money out, crash the currency and hope to effect political reform more to their liking. What Erdogan did at the end of 2021 when the lira hit a peak of 18.2 versus the dollar was to use Turkey’s relatively clean balance sheet (less than 40% debt-to-GDP) to encourage Turks to save and invest in lira (which I went into detail in the article linked above) while encouraging Russian and Chinese investment in Turkish sovereign debt and infrastructure/trade projects.

Those have been excellent investments for those investors. In November 2021, Turkish 10-year debt was yielding more than 23%. Today that number is 9.2%. The lira depreciated from an average of 15 to today’s 20 versus the dollar. Even accounting for the exchange rate losses, these have been excellent returns. Remember bond prices rise as yield falls.

Now, with his re-election, Erdogan and Turkey are on the other side of political risk of new leadership changing the course. Turkey isn’t out of the woods yet, but the economic data is improving, in some areas like Manufacturing Confidence (108) and Capacity Utilization (75.4%) quite rapidly.

Political stability is what is needed now. Militaristic adventurism isn’t. Erdogan has been given another four years to complete the turnaround and reimagining of the Turkish economy.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/04/2023 – 07:00

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Adam Smith Wasn’t a Progressive


Adam-Smith-Wasnt-aProgressive

Many people make dubious claims about Adam Smith’s beliefs. The usual pattern is to claim that the economist was not really a wicked conservative (true) but a modern progressive (false).

Three common claims are that Smith favored progressive taxation, public education, and government regulation of monopoly. Two are entirely, one partly, false.

Progressive Taxation

Smith’s first maxim of taxation, from Wealth of Nations, is that the “subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state.”

Taxation in proportion to revenue is not progressive taxation. It is proportional taxation—in modern terminology, a flat tax.

Not only did Smith not endorse a progressive income tax, he did not endorse any sort of income tax. “Capitation taxes,” he warned, “if it is attempted to proportion them to the fortune or revenue of each contributor, become altogether arbitrary. The state of a man’s fortune varies from day to day, and without an inquisition more intolerable than any tax, and renewed at least once every year, can only be guessed at. His assessment, therefore, must in most cases depend upon the good or bad humour of his assessors, and must, therefore, be altogether arbitrary and uncertain.”

Smith did not want a tax on income. He wanted a system of taxation whose burden is proportional to income. Unlike most modern commentators, he realizes that determining who bears the cost of a tax is not as simple as seeing who hands over the money.

Here is another Wealth of Nations quote I have seen offered as evidence that Smith supported progressive taxation: “It must always be remembered, however, that it is the luxuries, and not the necessary expense of the inferior ranks of people, that ought ever to be taxed.” This is interpreted as meaning that Smith wanted to tax the luxuries of the rich rather than the necessities of the poor.

But here is the full paragraph:

It must always be remembered, however, that it is the luxurious and not the necessary expense of the inferior ranks of people that ought ever to be taxed. The final payment of any tax upon their necessary expense would fall altogether upon the superior ranks of people; upon the smaller portion of the annual produce, and not upon the greater. Such a tax must in all cases either raise the wages of labour, or lessen the demand for it. It could not raise the wages of labour without throwing the final payment of the tax upon the superior ranks of people. It could not lessen the demand for labour without lessening the annual produce of the land and labour of the country, the fund from which all taxes must be finally paid. Whatever might be the state to which a tax of this kind reduced the demand for labour, it must always raise wages higher than they otherwise would be in that state, and the final payment of this enhancement of wages must in all cases fall upon the superior ranks of people.

Smith is arguing for taxing the luxuries of the poor, not of the rich. His argument is that a tax on the necessities of the “inferior ranks” will raise wages and hence be paid by the “superior ranks,” and that one should therefore tax the luxuries of the former in order to be sure they bear their share of the tax burden. The conversion of “luxurious” to “luxuries,” which makes the misreading possible—provided you don’t read the rest of the paragraph—appears to have originated as a typo in a mid–19th century edition that Project Gutenberg put online.

Here is another quote sometimes offered as evidence that Smith favored progressive taxation: “It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.”

The context here is Smith’s discussion of taxes on the rent of houses. He observes that richer people pay a larger share of their income for rent and thus that the incidence of such a tax will be more than proportional to income. He is saying that a tax desirable on other grounds should not be rejected just because it falls more heavily on the rich. “Not very unreasonable” does not mean “desirable,” which may be why some of those who offer the quote drop the first six words and capitalize the seventh to pretend that the sentence starts with “The rich should.”

Noah Smith, of the Noahpinion newsletter, has offered this quote to claim that Adam Smith favored income redistribution: “Wherever there is great property there is great inequality. For one very rich man there must be at least five hundred poor, and the affluence of the few supposes the indigence of the many.” He neglects the sentences that follow: “The affluence of the rich excites the indignation of the poor, who are often both driven by want, and prompted by envy, to invade his possessions. It is only under the shelter of the civil magistrate that the owner of that valuable property, which is acquired by the labour of many years, or perhaps of many successive generations, can sleep a single night in security.…Where there is no property, or at least none that exceeds the value of two or three days’ labour, civil government is not so necessary.” Smith is not arguing against inequality. He is saying that inequality is what makes government necessary.

In addition to having his words taken out of context, Smith sometimes has words assigned to him that we have no reason to believe he has ever said. Multiple posters claim that Smith wrote, “A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. Most government is by the rich for the rich. Government comprises a large part of the organized injustice in any society, ancient or modern. Civil government, insofar as it is instituted for the security of property, is in reality instituted for the defence of the rich against the poor, and for the defence of those who have property against those who have none.”

The first sentence is by Howard Scott, quoted in a newspaper in 1933. The last sentence is from Smith. I can find no source for the two middle sentences.

And then there are the people who cite a sentence where Smith seems to quote Lord Kames’ claim that a goal of taxation should be to “remedy inequality of riches as much as possible, by relieving the poor and burdening the rich.” That sentence does not come from Smith but from one of Edwin Cannan’s footnotes to his 1904 edition of Wealth of Nations, written more than a century after Smith’s death. Cannan quotes Kames’ rules regarding taxation because one of them is relevant to the passage Cannan is footnoting. The passage about remedying inequality of riches is a different one of Kames’ rules, and nothing in the text suggests that Smith agreed with it.

Schooling and Antitrust

In the course of a very long discussion of education, Wealth of Nations offers arguments both for and against a government role in schooling. One passage is often offered as evidence that he supported such a role: “For a very small expence the public can facilitate, can encourage, and can even impose upon almost the whole body of the people the necessity of acquiring those most essential parts of education.”

The next paragraph, usually not quoted, starts: “The public can facilitate this acquisition by establishing in every parish or district a little school, where children may be taught for a reward so moderate that even a common labourer may afford it; the master being partly, but not wholly, paid by the public, because, if he was wholly, or even principally, paid by it, he would soon learn to neglect his business.”

“Can” does not imply “should.” Smith also wrote: “Those parts of education, it is to be observed, for the teaching of which there are no public institutions, are generally the best taught.”

Smith’s final summary statement on the subject: “The expense of the institutions for education and religious instruction is likewise, no doubt, beneficial to the whole society, and may, therefore, without injustice, be defrayed by the general contribution of the whole society. This expense, however, might perhaps with equal propriety, and even with some advantage, be defrayed altogether by those who receive the immediate benefit of such education and instruction, or by the voluntary contribution of those who think they have occasion for either the one or the other.”

In other words, some modest public funding of schooling is not unjust but an entirely private system might be preferable.

Then there is the claim that Smith favored regulation of monopoly. The passage from Wealth of Nations sometimes quoted as evidence for this: “People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.” Jennifer Roback Morse, an economist and prominent social conservative, quoted this and commented: “Smith understood that the ‘natural’ tendency to cheat the public must be checked by legal and social norms. The law must prohibit some economic behavior.”

But the passage continues:

It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty and justice. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary. A regulation which obliges all those of the same trade in a particular town to enter their names and places of abode in a public register, facilitates such assemblies. It connects individuals who might never otherwise be known to one another, and gives every man of the trade a direction where to find every other man of it.

Smith is arguing not for laws against conspiracies in restraint of trade but against laws that help to create them—the 18th century equivalents of modern regulatory-cum-cartelizing agencies.

People who perceive Smith as a progressive observe, correctly, that he put a lot of weight on the welfare of the mass of the working population.

“Servants, labourers and workmen of different kinds, make up the far greater part of every great political society. But what improves the circumstances of the greater part can never be regarded as an inconveniency to the whole.”

What they miss is that Smith disagreed with them about what policies were in the masses’ interest.

Rothbard on Smith

Most of these misrepresentations come from progressives trying to claim Smith for their side. But Murray Rothbard, the libertarian economist, has also tried to present Smith as a proto-progressive—not to claim him, but to reject him. In volume 2 of An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought, for example, Rothbard wrote that Smith “advocated the soak-the-rich policy of progressive income taxation.” I could find no support in Rothbard’s book for that claim.

Rothbard also claimed that Smith supported public schooling, and he went into some detail on the purported reasons for this. He quoted Smith saying “the security of every society must always depend, more or less, upon the martial spirit of the great body of the people,” and then Rothbard added: “It was an anxiety to see government foster such a spirit that led Smith into another important deviation from laissez-faire principle: his call for government-run education.”

The first problem with this is that, as noted above, Smith did not call for government-run education. The second problem is that Rothbard reads Smith’s reference to “martial spirit” as reflecting a “devotion to the militarism of the nation-state.” This is misleading. Here is Smith’s comment in context:

But the security of every society must always depend, more or less, upon the martial spirit of the great body of the people. In the present times, indeed, that martial spirit alone, and unsupported by a well disciplined standing army, would not, perhaps, be sufficient for the defence and security of any society. But where every citizen had the spirit of a soldier, a smaller standing army would surely be requisite. That spirit, besides, would necessarily diminish very much the dangers to liberty, whether real or imaginary, which are commonly apprehended from a standing army. As it would very much facilitate the operations of that army against a foreign invader, so it would obstruct them as much if unfortunately they should ever be directed against the constitution of the state.

Smith’s argument on the virtues of a martial spirit is the same as an argument sometimes offered today for the right to bear arms: It makes a large military less necessary and a coup less likely to succeed. That is very nearly the opposite of what Rothbard implies.

Rothbard continues: “It is also important, opined Smith, to have government education in order to inculcate obedience to it among the populace—scarcely a libertarian or laissez-faire doctrine.” He then quotes Smith: “An instructed and intelligent people besides are always more decent and orderly than an ignorant and stupid one. They feel themselves, each individually, more respectable, and more likely to obtain the respect of their lawful superiors, and they are therefore more disposed to respect those superiors. They are…less apt to be misled into any wanton or unnecessary opposition to the measures of government.”

That statement looks rather different in context. It is preceded by a comment that schooling reduces “delusions of enthusiasm and superstition.” Rothbard’s ellipses remove Smith’s observation that educated citizens “are more disposed to examine, and more capable of seeing through, the interested complaints of faction and sedition.” Those parts of the text—and a phrase that Rothbard left in, about “wanton and unnecessary” stances—should make it clear that the objective is not blind obedience but support for good policy and opposition to bad.

What makes Rothbard’s criticism of Smith’s views on education particularly odd is the contrast with Anne Robert Jacques Turgot, who Rothbard describes as a better economist than Smith sadly neglected by later authors, emphasizing his support for laissez faire in a variety of contexts. Turgot urged the king of France to form “a Council of National Education, under whose direction will be placed the academies, the universities, the colleges, and all the smaller schools.” For what purpose? “I can propose nothing to you more advantageous for your people, more fit to maintain peace and good order, to give activity to all useful works, to make your authority to be cherished, to attach to you each day more and more the affections of your subjects, than to give to all of them an instruction which opens their mind to the obligations they have to society and to your power that protects them, the duty which these obligations impose, the self-interest that all have to fulfill these duties, for the public good and for their own.”

Rothbard was presumably familiar with this passage, since it was included in a collection to which Rothbard wrote the introduction. And he accuses Smith of wanting the government to control education in order to inculcate obedience?

Rothbard offers one criticism of Smith that I have not seen elsewhere: “He also favored moderate taxes on the import of foreign manufactures and taxes on the export of raw wool—thus gravely weakening his alleged devotion to freedom of international trade.”

But Smith, like Turgot and unlike Rothbard, was not an anarchist. That left him with the problem of picking the least bad form of taxation for funding a government. What made Smith a free-trader was that he thought import and export taxes, including an export tax on wool, had a bad effect on the economy. It was not his policy objective; it was a cost of raising needed money.

The difference between Smith and Turgot was not that one believed more in the virtues of free trade than the other. It was that Turgot thought the ideal system of taxation would collect all of its revenue from the net produce of land, while Smith discussed the advantages and disadvantages of a wide range of alternative taxes.

Rothbard does not mention that when Smith was writing, the export of wool was a criminal offense. Smith, who described these controls in detail, wanted to replace that ban with a tax—a large reduction in government interference with trade. It is as though someone writing a century from now denied that one of our contemporaries was opposed to the war on drugs because he proposed that marijuana should be taxed, without mentioning that the tax was part of a proposal to legalize it.

Smith was a free-trader. He did not favor a progressive income tax or any income tax. He did not call for regulation of monopolies. His support for public schooling was tentative and partial. He was neither a modern conservative nor a modern progressive.

The post Adam Smith Wasn't a Progressive appeared first on Reason.com.

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Steps To World Rule: First, Destroy Humanity

Steps To World Rule: First, Destroy Humanity

Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardoan.org,

It has always been astounding to me that people think for even a second that their government makes decisions to help the people—that has never been the case.

If a government’s decision helps anyone it is always an after effect…or an afterthought or a collateral unintended benefit.

The primary intent is for power, control, and money…to satisfy individual pursuits and goals of the global narcissistic/god-complex elite.

Anyone (which turns out to be most everyone) who supports this and thinks their government, or their nation, is operating in the people’s interest is signing their own death warrant.

“Don’t be so negative, Dr. Todd, there are good things in life too!”

Oh my yes, there are: newborn babies, sunsets, oceans, art, music, forests, waterfalls, sex with your lover, dogs…millions of things. But that is not what I am writing about right now. I am writing about the thing, and group of things, that will wipe all of that good stuff off the face of the earth. Sure, sure, sure, it won’t be forever. Good will prevail, but it could be a million years before it all comes back if we let it go now. And I think it is worth the fight to preserve what we’ve got.

Needless to say, people have always followed leaders. I am not an anthropologist, but I would take a guess that even in primitive times there were leaders of tribes, chiefs, kings, queens, or whatever. I would also guess that this arrangement probably worked well more often than not. Societies were close knit; if a leader went bonkers it was probably easier to just push him or her off a cliff somewhere. And considering how different things were back then, there probably was not as much incentive to be selfish, power hungry, wampum hungry, or weird in other ways. I also would guess this complacent sort of culture, if there ever was such a thing, did not last very long.

I’m sure adjacent tribes had some things the neighbors wanted, and sure the all too human trait of wanting power over others did not take too long to appear. Being the Grand Poobah of many people had to have the same allure it has today. Wars broke out, discrimination certainly reared its ugly head (“that tribe over there has longer necks than we do, let’s kill them!”), and of course truly important issues caused conflicts, like need for food, water, etc.

Things were a lot worse back in history than today in a lot of ways. But things along these lines did actually get better, in my humble opinion, during a brief period in the West. The establishment of a new country with fresh ideals was a sight for sore eyes back in the late 1700’s. I don’t think anything like it, on that particular scale, had been attempted in the human experience post antiquity (which we, regardless of what we have been told, know very little about). It indeed was a grand experiment—the new colonies in North America shedding the shackles of the tyranny of King George III of England.

The new fledgling country created a Constitution that was truly inspiring at the time. The checks and balances incorporated in that government was also inspiring, and did hold itself together fairly well for quite some time. Of course there are always problems, as there would be with anything brave and novel. But it all hung together fairly well for a bit of time.

I’ll stop there with the history lesson, which may not be all that accurate anyway, but I think you get the picture. Even if you disagree that the new United States of America was an exciting bit of work, you probably can agree that putting one man, or woman, in charge of a lot of people, has never gone all that well. Before the presidency of the United States, there were of course Kings and Queens. Even the US was concerned about having a single person at the head of the executive branch of government, lest it be too much like a monarchy. Some continue (many actually) to believe that the US form of government is still the best, and if certain things are readjusted, the US will continue to be the greatest country in the world.

I digress.

Wherever you are on that fence, you must agree that things are rather different now than what the founding fathers envisioned. Why? That would take a book, or several, to address. Point here is that we can no longer trust this system to be objective, compassionate, fair, benevolent, and not self-serving and destructive. In fact, it seems that the system itself is selling out to foreign interests, and the actual sovereignty of the nation is threatened, and this threat is largely coming from within.

We see this with other nations as well, basically handing over their sovereign rights as a nation to the likes of the WHO, or the UN, or even the WEF. What we see is much like watching a Sci-Fi motion picture where the bad guys are stripping a nation of everything that makes it the “representation of the people” into a personal self-serving slave to unelected powers.

What does this mean? Well, when you really think about it, there is no way this sort of global take over could ever be in the best interests of other human beings living on the planet. Even if you could have a benevolent world power (which is an oxymoron, in my opinion) you would, just by its nature, have to rule in very broad strokes, i.e., everything you implemented would have to be implemented for the good of the majority. That leaves quite a few people out. The hundreds of diverse cultures and the billions of humans that make them up would have to be reduced down to manageable attributes—becoming more and more like each other.

What does this sound like? If you thought “prison” you win the prize. Look at cultures like North Korea, and you will get some idea of what would be happening. And it is worse than that, because North Korea did not start out as a diverse culture—unlike the diversity of the entire globe.

And all that assuming this world system is benevolent, which it most certainly is not. Of course they present themselves as benevolent, and much like all fictional evil leaders (as well as the real ones throughout history), they may even believe they are benevolent. But any world leader(s) will have to focus on the destruction of humanity before they can accomplish any sort of world control over its inhabitants. That is simply the nature of the beast. I’ll say it again: any world leader(s) will have to focus on the destruction of humanity before they can accomplish any sort of world control over its inhabitants. No two ways about it.

And of course, in our modern age, this destruction of humanity is quite a bit more complex than literally whipping people into compliance like they did in the old days. Right now (and this will probably change) most of the psyop is accomplished either through the carrot enticement and then ruling with the stick, or through fear (stick first, carrot as a reward for compliance.)

It is the same game.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 06/03/2023 – 23:30

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What Did The World Look Like In The Last Ice Age?

What Did The World Look Like In The Last Ice Age?

What did the world look like during the last ice age?

Was it all endless glaciers and frozen ice? The answer is a partial yes—with some interesting caveats.

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), colloquially called the last ice age, was a period in Earth’s history that occurred roughly 26,000 to 19,000 years ago.

This map by cartographer Perrin Remonté offers a snapshot of the Earth from that time, using data of past sea levels and glaciers from research published in 2009, 2014, and 2021, alongside modern-day topographical data.

Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao dives into the differences between the two Earths below.

The Last Ice Age: Low Seas, Exposed Landmasses

During an ice age, sea levels fall as ocean water that evaporates is stored on land on a large scale (ice sheets, ice caps, glaciers) instead of returning to the ocean.

At the time of the LGM, the climate was cold and dry with temperatures that were 6 °C (11 °F) lower on average. Water levels in the ocean were more than 400 feet below what they are now, exposing large areas of the continental shelf.

In the map above, these areas are represented as the gray, dry land most noticeable in a few big patches in Southeast Asia and between Russia and Alaska. Here are a few examples of regions of dry land from 20,000 years ago that are now under water:

  • A “lost continent” called Sundaland, a southeastern extension of Asia which forms the island regions of Indonesia today. Some scholars see a connection with this location and the mythical site of Atlantis, though there are many other theories.

  • The Bering land bridge, now a strait, connecting Asia and North America. It is central to the theory explaining how ancient humans crossed between the two continents.

  • Another land bridge connected the island of Great Britain with the rest of continental Europe. The island of Ireland is in turn connected to Great Britain by a giant ice sheet.

  • In Japan, the low water level made the Sea of Japan a lake, and a land bridge connected the region to the Asian mainland. The Yellow Sea—famous as a modern-day fishing location—was completely dry.

The cold temperatures also caused the polar parts of continents to be covered by massive ice sheets, with glaciers forming in mountainous areas.

Flora and Fauna in the Last Ice Age

The dry climate during the last ice age brought about the expansion of deserts and the disappearance of rivers, but some areas saw increased precipitation from falling temperatures.

Most of Canada and Northern Europe was covered with large ice sheets. The U.S. was a mix of ice sheets, alpine deserts, snow forests, semi-arid scrubland and temperate grasslands. Areas that are deserts today—like the Mojave—were filled with lakes. The Great Salt Lake in Utah is a remnant from this time.

Africa had a mix of grasslands in its southern half and deserts in the north—the Sahara Desert existed then as well—and Asia was a mix of tropical deserts in the west, alpine deserts in China, and grasslands in the Indian subcontinent.

Several large animals like the woolly mammoth, the mastodon, the giant beaver, and the saber-toothed tiger roamed the world in extremely harsh conditions, but sadly all are extinct today.

However, not all megafauna from the LGM disappeared forever; many species are still alive, including the Bactrian camel, the tapir, the musk ox, and the white rhinoceros—though the latter is now an endangered species.

Will There Be Another Ice Age?

In a technical sense, we’re still in an “ice age” called the Quaternary Glaciation, which began about 2.6 million years ago. That’s because a permanent ice sheet has existed for the entire time, the Antarctic, which makes geologists call this entire period an ice age.

We are currently in a relatively warmer part of that ice age, described as an interglacial period, which began 11,700 years ago. This geological epoch is known as the Holocene.

Over billions of years, the Earth has experienced numerous glacial and interglacial periods and has had five major ice ages:

It is predicted that temperatures will fall again in a few thousand years, leading to expansion of ice sheets. However there are a dizzying array of factors that are still not understood well enough to say comprehensively what causes (or ends) ice ages.

A popular explanation says the degree of the Earth’s axial tilt, its wobble, and its orbital shape, are the main factors heralding the start and end of this phenomenon.

The variations in all three lead to a change in how much prolonged sunlight parts of the world receive, which in turn can cause the creation or melting of ice sheets. But these take thousands of years to coincide and cause a significant change in climate.

Furthermore, current industrial activities have warmed the climate considerably and may in fact delay the next ice age by 50,000-100,000 years.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 06/03/2023 – 23:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/rYWgSfH Tyler Durden

Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Repeated COVID-19 vaccination weakens the immune system, potentially making people susceptible to life-threatening conditions such as cancer, according to a new study.

A man is given a COVID-19 vaccine in Chelsea, Mass., on Feb. 16, 2021. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Multiple doses of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines lead to higher levels of antibodies called IgG4, which can provide a protective effect. But a growing body of evidence indicates that the “abnormally high levels” of the immunoglobulin subclass actually make the immune system more susceptible to the COVID-19 spike protein in the vaccines, researchers said in the paper.

They pointed to experiments performed on mice that found multiple boosters on top of the initial COVID-19 vaccination “significantly decreased” protection against both the Delta and Omicron virus variants and testing that found a spike in IgG4 levels after repeat Pfizer vaccination, suggesting immune exhaustion.

Studies have detected higher levels of IgG4 in people who died with COVID-19 when compared to those who recovered and linked the levels with another known determinant of COVID-19-related mortality, the researchers also noted.

A review of the literature also showed that vaccines against HIV, malaria, and pertussis also induce the production of IgG4.

“In sum, COVID-19 epidemiological studies cited in our work plus the failure of HIV, Malaria, and Pertussis vaccines constitute irrefutable evidence demonstrating that an increase in IgG4 levels impairs immune responses,” Alberto Rubio Casillas, a researcher with the biology laboratory at the University of Guadalajara in Mexico and one of the authors of the new paper, told The Epoch Times via email.

The paper was published by the journal Vaccines in May.

Pfizer and Moderna officials didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Both companies utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in their vaccines.

Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the technology, said the paper illustrates why he’s been warning about the negative effects of repeated vaccination.

“I warned that more jabs can result in what’s called high zone tolerance, of which the switch to IgG4 is one of the mechanisms. And now we have data that clearly demonstrate that’s occurring in the case of this as well as some other vaccines,” Malone, who wasn’t involved with the study, told The Epoch Times.

So it’s basically validating that this rush to administer and re-administer without having solid data to back those decisions was highly counterproductive and appears to have resulted in a cohort of people that are actually more susceptible to the disease.”

Possible Problems

The weakened immune systems brought about by repeated vaccination could lead to serious problems, including cancer, the researchers said.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Sat, 06/03/2023 – 22:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/vRlTOKQ Tyler Durden

Glamour Magazine Features Pregnant “Man” Cover Model For Pride Month

Glamour Magazine Features Pregnant “Man” Cover Model For Pride Month

Authored by Cardinal Pritchard via NotTheBee.com,

You guys, this is getting a little ridiculous. Since when is a pregnant man something we celebrate during pride month? Like, this stuff is straight out of the circus but somehow — and I don’t know when it happened — here we are celebrating a chick who cut off her boobs and made herself look like a man and then got herself pregnant.

Why?

[Warning: Post-Mastectomy Photos]

Why are we celebrating this?

What makes this progressive?

I’m genuinely curious, because I don’t think everyday liberals, progressives — whatever they want to call themselves — I don’t think they’re really into supporting this kind of stuff when it comes down to it.

I think they realize how strange it is but they don’t want to say anything because they might be rejected by their peers.

Yet this is what they’re supporting with their silence:

From the story:

A topless pregnant transgender man featured on the cover of Glamour U.K.’s June issue ignited a fierce reaction from online critics Thursday.

Author Logan Brown, a 27-year-old who was born female but now identifies as a transgender man, posed as the cover star of British Glamour Magazine’s digital issue celebrating Pride Month in a painted-on suit, showcasing a large baby bump.

Brown unexpectedly became pregnant with partner Bailey J Mills, a non-binary drag performer in the U.K., while taking a break from testosterone treatments due to health reasons, the fashion magazine said.

“A topless pregnant transgender man.”

Try saying that ten times fast.

Doesn’t really roll off the tongue very well, now does it?

And that last paragraph there is just a doozy, I tell ya…

I can’t even do it.

Look, I know we’re supposed to be outraged by this stuff or whatever, but I’ve grown accustomed to it when it comes to the far left. They’re weird, man, and everybody knows it.

These are crazy times, and while everybody loves a little science fiction, this is anything but that. It’s real, and it’s right there at the top of the page. It may look like something out of a Ray Bradbury story, but it’s the truth, and when people see the truth — in this case, a mainstream magazine featuring a “pregnant transgender man” on the cover — it hits them differently.

So stop arguing with people on Twitter and have some real conversations, why don’t ya?

Cuz that’s the only way to get the word out as to how strange these people really are.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 06/03/2023 – 21:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/UOBqks3 Tyler Durden

27 Kids Missing In Last Two Weeks – What The Hell Is Happening In Cleveland?

27 Kids Missing In Last Two Weeks – What The Hell Is Happening In Cleveland?

In the span of just two weeks, nearly 30 children have vanished in Cleveland, sparking huge concern from a local police chief who said he hasn’t seen anything like this in his 33-year career.

Newburgh Heights police chief John Majoy told reporters that as many as 27 children have been reported missing in the greater Cleveland area.

“It’s a silent crime that happens right under our noses,” he said.

“The problem is where are they? Where do they go? They can be in a drug house or farmed to prostitution or caught up in drug trafficking or gangs.”

He called the number of missing children, whose ages range from 12 to 17, unprecedented when speaking to reporters.

“There’s always peaks and valleys with missing persons, but this year it seems like an extraordinary year,” he told Fox News Digital.

“For some reason, in 2023, we’ve seen a lot more than we normally see, which is troubling in part because we don’t know what’s going on with some of these kids, whether they’re being trafficked or whether they’re involved in gang activity or drugs.”

Cleveland police recorded that the kids were reported missing between May 2 and May 16.

As The Sun reports, more than 15,000 children were reported missing in Ohio last year, and four of them were found dead.

In more than 8,500 of the cases, abduction played a role, with 34 cases being the result of abductions by a noncustodial parent.

According to a report by Ohio Attorney General, Dave Yost, only five of the cases stemmed from children being kidnapped by a stranger.

Police were able to find 36 percent of the children but 615 were still missing when 2023 began.

Shockingly, Cleveland Police records show another 25 youths on its missing persons roster who disappeared between May 17 and May 31.

What the hell is happening in Cleveland?

Tyler Durden
Sat, 06/03/2023 – 21:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/OWpPhxN Tyler Durden