Goldman Slumps To 2-Mo Lows Amid Collapse In Trading Revenue, More Job Cuts Coming

Goldman Slumps To 2-Mo Lows Amid Collapse In Trading Revenue, More Job Cuts Coming

Goldman Sachs – not a regional bank – is trading at its lowest since March this morning after tumbling following comments from Goldman President John Waldron warning investors of a sharp slowdown in its investment bank.

At a conference hosted by AllianceBernstein, Waldron said the bank’s trading business is trending down more than 25% this quarter compared with a year ago, describing capital-markets activity as “sluggish.”

Goldman is working on what would be its third round of job cuts in under a year, Bloomberg News reported earlier this week, and Waldron confirmed:

“We are now embarking on additional targeted action with our headcount,” adding that “we are preparing for a tougher environment.”

In February, Goldman Sachs outlined plans for about $1 billion in expense reductions. Waldron said the bank is on target to achieve that goal.

Goldman stock is trading back near its post-SVB lows…

Waldron’s comments follow Morgan Stanley Co-President Andy Saperstein yesterday offering a gloomy forecast for the bank’s sales and trading and dealmaking operations.

“Sales and trading is softer this quarter,” he said. “Results will be notably down year-over-year.”

Saperstein also said investment banking is “very challenged. As an industry we have been in a sustained trough since last year.”

Finally, Goldman’s Waldron note that he is seeing “a pretty risk-off tone” from its clients with corporate CEOs pretty cautious.

“Feels like we are going to have a contractionary environment for a period of time.”

But, but, but, A.I.!

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 12:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/bpqSIo8 Tyler Durden

The Fed Blew Up Another Real Estate Bubble And It’s Losing Air

The Fed Blew Up Another Real Estate Bubble And It’s Losing Air

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

In March, I warned that the commercial and investment real estate markets could be the next thing to break in this bubble economy. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal put a face on my warning.

The rampant money creation and zero percent interest rates during the COVID pandemic on top of three rounds of quantitative easing and more than a decade of artificially low interest rates in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis created all kinds of distortions and malinvestments in the economy and the financial system. It was inevitable that something would break when the Federal Reserve tried to raise interest rates in order to fight the price inflation it caused with its loose monetary policy.

Easy money is the lifeblood of the US economy and financial system. The Fed started draining that lifeblood away when it stepped in to fight the price inflation it could no longer write off as transitory. There was no way the central bank wasn’t going to break something.

The first crack in the dam was the ongoing financial crisis kicked off by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The Federal Reserve and the US government managed to plug that hole in the dam with a bank bailout. But there are plenty of other cracks in the dam.

For instance, the investment real estate market is under significant pressure due to rising interest rates. As a report by Yahoo Finance noted, “Big owners of property around the country were already under pressure from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, which raised borrowing costs and lowered building values.”

It’s not unlike the housing bubble the Fed blew up in 2005 and 2006 but this time it’s concentrated on commercial real estate such as office buildings, multi-family housing complexes, and apartment buildings.

Jay Gajavell puts a human face on this problem.

Gajavell is a Texas real estate investor. According to the Wall Street Journal, his company owned $500 million-plus worth of Sunbelt apartment buildings with more than 7,000 units. He ranked as one of the biggest landlords in Houston.

Gajavelli is what is known as a syndicator. He built his real estate empire using funding from numerous small investors who wanted to get into the real estate game without all the work.

The plan was to buy apartment buildings, upgrade units, raise rents, and sell the buildings for a profit in as little as three years. But as the WSJ described it, these investors were “highly vulnerable to interest-rate increases over the past year that crushed the business model they and thousands of others in similar deals across the US had hoped would make them wealthy.”

The Wall Street Journal described the situation as a “looming investment-property disaster.”

In fact, rising interest rates have already caught up with Gajavelli. In April, his company lost four rental complexes with more than 3,000 units through foreclosure.

The Wall Street Journal explained what did Gajavelli in.

His company had taken out commercial real-estate loans that carried floating interest rates and were adjusted each month. Those types of loans in 2021 offered initial rates as low as 3.5%. Everything changed when the Federal Reserve began raising rates last year, driving up monthly loan payments. Inflation contributed to higher expenses, and Applesway couldn’t raise rents fast enough to keep pace. After bills went unpaid, company properties went into foreclosure.”

It would be one thing if this was an isolated incident, but it isn’t. There are thousands of real estate entrepreneurs like Gajavelli, and many are in a similar situation.

A law passed by Congress in 2012 helped spark the boom in real estate syndication, making it easier to market real estate investments online. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings, real estate syndicators reported raising at least $115 billion from investors between 2020 and 2022.

In the wake of the pandemic, there was a major real estate boom spurred by zero percent interest rates and billions of dollars in stimulus money that further incentivized people to invest in real estate.

As housing prices exploded, rents skyrocketed as well. One property manager described it as a mania.

Now the bubble is deflating, as the WSJ describes.

Many syndicators are racing to either raise funds or sell properties before tipping into foreclosure. Most hold balloon-payment loans that require repayment when they come due this year or next. Those syndicators face large payouts at a time when getting new, more affordable property loans will be difficult. Even firms with multibillion-dollar portfolios have used syndication to buy apartment buildings that no longer make enough money to cover debt payments, bond documents show.”

While the Wall Street Journal does a great job of explaining the nuts and bolts of the syndication scheme and mentions the role of rising interest rates in popping the bubble, it completely ignores the Federal Reserve’s role in blowing up the bubble to begin with.

As I pointed out earlier, the Fed created this problem long before when it held rates artificially low for so long. It incentivized all of this borrowing and risk-taking. Everybody just assumed rates would stay low forever so they levered up and took on more and more risk.

Gajavelli probably wouldn’t have been able to build his real estate empire without Fed’s easy money policies.

Unfortunately for Gajavelli and many like him, what the Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away.

This describes the impact of Fed monetary policy on one sector. Bubbles and malinvestments are certainly present in many other sectors of the economy as well. The question is where will the next hole open up in the dam?

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 12:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/moMUj9B Tyler Durden

“Could Hunter Biden Be the Next Poster Child for Second Amendment Rights?”

An interesting article in Politico (Betsy Woodruff Swan):

The president’s son is the target of a Justice Department investigation scrutinizing his purchase of a gun in 2018 — a time when he has said he was regularly using crack cocaine. Federal law bans drug users from owning guns.

But the constitutionality of that law — like many other provisions restricting gun ownership — is newly in question after a precedent-rocking decision the Supreme Court handed down almost a year ago.

His lawyers have already told Justice Department officials that, if their client is charged with the gun crime, they will challenge the law under the Second Amendment, according to a person familiar with the private discussions granted anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. That could turn a case that is already fraught with political consequences into a high-profile showdown over the right to bear arms.

The dispute would come as the White House fights to tighten gun laws. And it could put conservative gun-rights enthusiasts, who typically criticize the Biden family, in unusual alignment with the president’s son.

The federal statute (18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3)) bans gun possession by anyone who “is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance.” (It’s a separate provision from the one that bans gun possession by convicted felons, which would include people who had been convicted of feloniously possessing a controlled substance.) The Politico story notes the dispute among lower courts whether this particular provision is constitutional, and links to relevant cases.

The post "Could Hunter Biden Be the Next Poster Child for Second Amendment Rights?" appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/MxU243w
via IFTTT

Ex-San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin Appointed Director of Berkeley Law’s new Criminal Law & Justice Center

Chesa Boudin graduated Yale Law School in 2011. After two judicial clerkships bracketing a year as a post-doc fellow (!!??) at the San Francisco DA’s office and several years practicing criminal law as a public defender, he ran successfully for San Francisco DA as a left-wing anti-racist reformist candidate. His tenure as DA was such a disaster that San Francisco voters recalled him by a 55% majority vote in June 2022.

I’m sure we’re all happy to know that Chesa landed on his feet. Berkeley Law School has announced that he will be the founding executive director of Berkeley Law’s new Criminal Law & Justice Center:

“Since coming to Berkeley Law, I have wanted to create a criminal law and justice center to further advance the important work of our tremendous faculty and clinics in this area,” Dean Erwin Chemerinsky says. “I am delighted to launch the center and that Chesa Boudin will be its first executive director. Chesa was chosen after a national search and has substantial experience across the criminal justice system. He has thought deeply about the system, and I cannot think of anyone better to create and direct this important center.”

Just in case it seems like Boudin may not be the best possible candidate for the position, the Berkelely Law press release assures readers that he has a “lifetime of experience.” How so, given that he is only twelve years out of law school?

Boudin’s parents, former members of the radical political group Weather Underground, spent more than six combined decades in prison for participating in a 1981 Brinks truck robbery that led to the death of two police officers and a security guard. Boudin was 14 months old at the time. His mother was released on parole after being incarcerated for 22 years, his father after 40.

“Led to the death.” Hmmm. Anyway, lest you think that this is the mere awkward musings of a pr flak, Boudin agrees:

I wanted a job that draws on three personal and professional experiences that have been defining for me: a lifetime of direct experience with my biological parents spending 62 combined years in prison, my career as a public defender doing direct service work through individual client representation where I saw the everyday injustices of our so-called justice system, and my time in elected office where I focused on broader system change.

I certainly don’t think we should disqualify people from academic positions because of their parents’ actions. But the notion that having parents incarcerated for felony murder is a qualification to run an academic center is… interesting.

But wait, we also learn that Angela Davis endorses him! Then again, Davis herself narrowly escaped an almost-certainly deserved long prison term for her role in a courthouse takeover that resulted in multiple murders. So it’s not surprising that she likes incompetent prosecutors. It might be a bit more surprising that Berkeley Law does.

The post Ex-San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin Appointed Director of Berkeley Law's new Criminal Law & Justice Center appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/4G8QBKz
via IFTTT

NIMBY Cities Are Using Your Tax Dollars To Lobby Against New Housing


reason-leagueofcities

In January 2023, just days after her inauguration, Arizona’s new Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, used her first State of the State speech to bemoan the high and rising price of housing. 

“Our state is no stranger to the boom-and-bust housing cycles—but this is something wholly different,” she said. “Three Arizona cities—Tucson, Mesa, and Phoenix—have seen some of the highest rent increases in the nation. The number of individuals experiencing homelessness has risen significantly in recent years.” 

The moment seemed ripe for reform. 

Just a few weeks later, however, the new governor killed a bill that would have eventually zeroed out about $300 million a year in taxes people pay on their housing costs. In February, Hobbs vetoed legislation that would have barred local governments from charging taxes on the rents tenants pay. 

Ending Arizona’s quixotic local rent taxes has long been a goal of the state’s Republicans, who argue they cost renters hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Soaring housing costs and big municipal budget surpluses even brought around a couple of Democrats in the polarized Legislature. 

But those savings to taxpayers also meant $300 million of red ink for Arizona’s local governments. Eliminating rent taxes was a non-starter for Arizona localities’ influential state lobbying arm, the Arizona League of Cities and Towns. 

“This bill does not provide meaningful relief, will likely harm those it’s purported to help, and will likely only accomplish providing a tax break for landlords,” said league president and Yuma Mayor Douglas Nicholls in a press release distributed by Hobbs’ office. 

According to the author of the rent tax legislation, Arizona Sen. Steve Kaiser (R–Phoenix), the league’s opposition sealed his bill’s fate. “It’s 100 percent” the league, he told Reason in February. “They have a lot of control and influence over the governor right now.” 

With the exception of Hawaii, which doesn’t have municipalities, every state in the country has an association of city governments dedicated to influencing state policy. 

Funded by dues from city budgets and controlled by elected city officials, these organizations have exerted formidable influence on state-level lawmaking, almost always with the singular goal of preserving municipalities’ maximum autonomy to tax and regulate as they see fit. 

And because the dues-paying municipalities are public entities funded by tax revenues, they have done so at considerable public expense. 

Over the past decade, these leagues of cities have increasingly sparred with free market activists trying to put state guardrails on municipal regulation and conservative state legislators eager to overturn the policies of large, liberal cities. 

Meanwhile, the country’s widening housing crisis has opened a new front in this war over local control. 

During COVID, millions of Americans left expensive coastal cities for life in the Sunbelt and Mountain West. The sudden inflows to Texas, Colorado, Montana, and beyond accelerated already rising home prices and rents. Affordability problems that were once thought safely contained in New York and San Francisco have spread to the rest of the country. 

In response, a bipartisan mix of policy makers is taking a fresh, critical look at how local housing regulations are gumming up the new construction needed to moderate these sudden price spikes. 

In state capitols across the American West, both Democrats and Republican lawmakers have introduced very similar bills that would override existing local housing regulations in favor of more permissive state rules. These state policies would streamline the approval of new homes, allow more units to be built on less land, and legalize less expensive types of housing. 

These bills are supported by an oddball coalition of left-leaning housing affordability advocates, right-leaning property rights supporters, environmentalists, and libertarian policy wonks. 

At the state level, these reforms are always opposed by taxpayer-funded leagues of cities. State-level zoning preemption represents an existential threat to their members and their mission. 

Leagues of cities have proven remarkably effective at besting bipartisan pro-housing reforms with the argument that local governments know their communities best, so local control should prevail—housing crisis or no. 

Home Rulers 

War and peace and national economic policy are still decided in Washington, D.C. But localities exercise considerable control over the fine details of the average American’s day-to-day life. Whether you can start a small business in your garage, get a straw with your soda, or shoot off fireworks on the Fourth of July is determined by city hall. 

It wasn’t always this way. For much of the country’s early history, local governments were comparatively toothless. The U.S. Constitution gives them no powers or protections. Anything mayors and city councilors wanted to do, even just pave the streets, required them to ask state legislators. 

But around the turn of the 20th century, municipal governments were rescued from obscurity by the “home rule” revolution. 

The idea was “there’s some natural domain of policy that cities have and can be defined by constitutions,” says Yale Law School professor David Schleicher. “The progressives pushed this form of home rule to rationalize government. They also hated state legislatures, which they thought were super, super corrupt.” 

In the 1950s, the National League of Cities—then the American Municipal Association—spread a model home-rule law that continues to set the basic relationship between state and local governments today. Schleicher describes it as “great powers for cities to do things but no protections against override” from state governments. 

Sweeping powers to tax and regulate combined with the ever-present threat that state lawmakers might take those powers away gives cities and their state-level associations a powerful incentive to lobby. 

In her 2021 book When Cities Lobby, New York University political scientist Julia Payson notes that local governments are often the largest spenders of lobbying dollars at state capitals. For instance, from 1999 to 2014, local governments in California spent up to $100 million a year of taxpayer money on lobbying, more than any other interest group. They outstripped influential labor unions’ lobbying spending by a 3–1 ratio. 

The purpose of this influence operation is simple and explicit. 

“That deep desire for local decision-making is the common thread that continues to link municipal officials across time, geography, and political ideology,” wrote Clarence Anthony, the executive director and CEO of the National League of Cities, in 2020. 

Payson is more succinct when she writes that cities lobby primarily for “more money, greater autonomy, fewer mandates, and increased institutional power.” 

Individual municipalities collectively spend the bulk of lobbying dollars. But their efforts are often directed at competing against other cities for state funding for local projects. Leagues of cities play a crucial role in fighting for cities’ interests in local control generally. 

Payson’s book notes that state municipal associations collectively represent 95 percent of all municipal governments. In each association’s charter is a commitment to two goals: ensuring state funding for cities and opposing legislation reducing local authority. It’s less common for charters to mention specific policy goals like reducing homelessness or protecting public employee benefits. 

In one sense, leagues of cities are no different from the Farm Bureau, the Teamsters, or any other interest group that tries to influence policies to the benefit of its members. 

What makes them distinct, and controversial, is they’re controlled by local elected officials using public resources for their lobbying efforts.  

“This isn’t some private entity, pursuing private interests. It’s literally a collection of local governments that exists for advocating for local governments, not its citizens,” says Jon Riches, an attorney with the Goldwater Institute, an Arizona-based free market think tank. 

Riches notes that employees of the League of Arizona Cities and Towns draw from the state’s public pension system. At the same time, Riches complains that they don’t have to respond to public records requests like a normal public entity. In that respect, they are treated like a private organization.

The ability to draw from public resources makes them a powerful lobbying group at the state level, where interest groups are often less well-funded and organized, says Schleicher. 

The Arizona league has an annual revenue of about $3.4 million, with $2.2 million of that coming from taxpayer-funded dues from its municipal members. That makes it about half the size of the influential Arizona Education Association (the teachers union) and about the same size as the Arizona Multi-Family Housing Association (which represents developers). 

That comparison probably understates its influence at the state Capitol given just how focused the league is on lobbying state legislation. The Arizona league employs three in-house staff primarily focused on legislative issues. In FY 2023, it also spent $330,000 (or 10 percent of its budget) on contract lobbying and consulting services.

“The challenge with taxpayers funding lobbyists is that they’re being forced to pay for services that typically run contrary to their interests,” Chuck DeVore, then-vice president of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, told Reason in 2017. Lobbyists with the Texas Municipal League, he says, “invariably lobby for bigger government, more borrowing, higher spending, and more regulation.” Leagues of cities are dedicated almost exclusively to fighting limits on their taxing and regulatory authority. 

The Goldwater Institute has fought the Arizona League of Cities and Towns on a number of policy issues, including bills the institute has sponsored to protect home-based businesses, prevent municipal employees from engaging in union activism on the job, and regulate short-term rentals. 

League staff themselves say they play a vital role in the public policy-making process. They offer state lawmakers the invaluable perspective of local governments on how best to respond to local issues. 

“We represent the governments that are closest to the people,” says Tom Savage, legislative director of the Arizona League of Cities and Towns. “When we come down to engage with our legislators on issues that they’re considering, we try to inform them of the decisions they’re making and how they’re going to impact their constituents at the local level.” 

Responding to criticisms about transparency, Savage argues that the Arizona league is exceptionally open about its operations. “Everything we do when we talk to our 25-member executive board, all of those conversations are occurring in an open meeting format. They’re open to the public, we post our agendas online, we post our minutes online,” he says. 

Leagues of cities strive to appear bipartisan. They represent big liberal cities and small conservative towns as local governments first. 

That task has become more difficult over the past decade. Growing Republican strength in state legislatures, and their waning influence in municipal governments, has seen conservatives get increasingly on board with state preemption. 

In a 2020 research brief, the National League of Cities notes that laws preempting minimum wage increases, local gun control measures, expanded anti-discrimination laws, and more have spread like wildfire over the past decade. State leagues’ mission increasingly shifted to stopping these conservative initiatives. 

Saving them from becoming a liberal influence group by default is the most partisan-scrambled issue of all, one that up until now cities have had the most authority over: housing. 

States vs. Cities

In January, at a meeting of the Montana House of Representatives Local Government Committee, Rep. Katie Zolnikov (R–Billings) rose to make the case for her bill to create a minimum lot size of 2,500 square feet across the state. 

The bill was designed to allow smaller lots than many Montana localities currently allow. Larger lot requirements drive up home prices by forcing builders to use more land per house. 

Putting some state-level “sideboards” on excessive minimum lot size regulations would help bring Montana’s spiking COVID-era prices back down to earth, Zolnikov told the committee. “This gives landowners more freedoms to develop their property in a way that serves the demand for their community.” 

There’s a growing consensus in policy circles that housing is expensive because zoning regulations make it difficult to build more of it. Most of those regulations are imposed by local governments. In response, some advocates have pushed for state legislatures to override local regulations with lighter, more pro-growth state zoning rules. 

The move toward preemption has scrambled partisan factions—and the weird new divide was apparent at the Montana committee hearing. 

Testifying in favor of Zolnikov’s bill were representatives from the local free market think tank the Frontier Institute, the left-leaning housing advocacy group Shelter WF, the right-leaning Americans for Prosperity, a local environmental advocacy group, and a former Democratic lawmaker.

The opposition was far more selective. It included only a spokesperson for the Montana League of Cities and Towns, a small-town mayor who was also a director with the league, several local government employees, and a member of the state’s city planning association. 

Opponents’ arguments against the bill focused almost exclusively on the merits of local control of housing policy.

“It shouldn’t be forced upon every community regardless of local circumstances. I’m not joking when I tell you that has only been done in California under Gov. Gavin Newsom,” said the representative from the Montana league. 

This unified local opposition proved persuasive. Zolnikov’s bill officially died in the Legislature in March. 

“Unfortunately, virtually always, it’s leagues of cities organizations that are fighting to kill these bills that would put guardrails around local planning,” says Nolan Gray, research director for housing advocacy group California YIMBY (and occasional Reason contributor), which stands for Yes In My Back Yard.  

Gray testified in favor of Zolnikov’s bill at that January hearing. A few months later, he testified in support of Senate Bill 23-213 in Colorado, a bill crafted by the state’s Democratic Gov. Jared Polis that would require cities to allow a wider range of dwellings, with a focus on increasing density. 

At that hearing, the bill’s supporters included a diverse array of environmentalists, YIMBY housing advocates, homebuilders, and business interests. Its opponents were almost uniformly local governments and associations representing local governments.

When Kaiser’s own sweeping housing reform bill, S.B. 1117—which would have likewise allowed accessory dwelling units (ADUs) everywhere, shrunk minimum lot sizes, pared back height limits, and required faster issuing of permits—was up for its first hearing in February in Arizona, the opposition was once again local officials and the state’s league of cities and towns. 

Leagues of cities argue that housing is everywhere and always a local issue and should be decided by local governments with local knowledge. 

“There’s nothing more local than what happens in your neighborhood,” says Savage, the Arizona League of Cities legislative director. “There’s no way a state law can reflect the individual needs of these communities.” 

At the Montana hearing, the state’s league of cities representative noted that the Legislature could end up approving lot size reform for the whole state after only a few brief committee hearings. 

“In our communities, the discussion about whether or not to reduce or eliminate minimum sizes would literally take hours and hours, public meeting after public meeting. You’d be up late into the night having discussions about impacts to the local community in terms of health and safety [and] services,” she said. 

For supporters of state-level preemption, routing around all that process is a feature, not a bug. What leagues of cities say is crucial local knowledge, YIMBY zoning reformers argue are often just bad local incentives. 

Local governments are often captured by anti-growth residents who are willing to keep regulatory caps on housing if it means quieter streets, less construction noise, higher property values, and less change generally. If that drives up the cost of housing for the state generally, so be it. 

“There are just certain types of land use regulations that we know local governments abuse,” says Gray. “It’s gotten us into a place where many cities are not building enough housing. The most affluent neighborhoods and towns are building virtually no housing.”  

Because the politics of zoning reform are so scrambled, with Democrats and Republicans on both sides of the issue, nonpartisan groups like leagues of cities can punch above their already considerable weight. That’s particularly true for a policy area that’s long been assumed to be the exclusive domain of cities. 

“They have this particular source of authority that comes from sounding neutral. The fact that it sounds so anodyne,” says Schleicher. “They have this added benefit which is that they’re nonpartisan. They are a convenient tool for people opposed to something to point to and say ‘the league of cities opposes it.'”  

The confusing and highly technical nature of a lot of zoning policy gives the league, and its assumed expertise, a lot of additional influence, which critics argue they abuse. 

Kaiser says there have been two primary reasons people lined up against the Arizona housing bill. 

The first is “people don’t understand the bill,” he says. The other is “they just hate it because they’re somehow associated with or close to the league of cities and towns here. They’re a no because [the league] told them to be a no. They trust them.” 

Leagues of cities will occasionally make other policy arguments against state zoning reforms that go beyond preserving municipal authority. 

At a hearing on Kaiser’s S.B. 1117, a league of cities representative complained that his bill did nothing to guarantee that newly legalized housing would be affordable. Nevertheless, the league is currently opposing a bill that would override zoning controls only for affordable apartments near rail transit lines. 

The point is local control. And local control almost always means more control—more regulations, more restrictions, more rules and processes that ultimately make housing more scarce and more expensive. 

One can see this clearly in the advocacy of the National League of Cities. The organization has produced reports criticizing “NIMBY politics” and pushed updated model home rule laws that would all but ban states from routing around those NIMBY politics to do the upzoning themselves.

At the state level, leagues of cities have endorsed legislation and reforms that limit public hearings on individual developments and restrict private citizens’ and third parties’ abilities to challenge local governments’ approval of housing. They also often support or are neutral on bills that require them to assess housing needs in their community. 

These bills are one example of where protecting the powers of local governments aligns with more housing production. League support for those bills nevertheless cuts against their claims that they’re merely interested in preserving citizen input into local affairs. 

Situations where leagues find themselves on the side of more housing are still the exception, not the rule. 

Kaiser’s housing bill made it out of committee with bipartisan support but ultimately died on the Arizona Senate floor. Some of the policies from that bill have been included in other pieces of legislation that the league continues to oppose. 

Colorado’s zoning reform bill failed in the face of unified Republican opposition and a Democratic caucus split over the idea of state preemption. 

Kevin Bommer of the Colorado Municipal League tells Reason his organization could come around to supporting the bill if the state-level preemptions were replaced with a voluntary menu of policy options. 

Such a version of the bill managed to pass the Colorado Senate but ran into opposition in the House, where members insisted on preemption measures being included. 

Hitting this impasse, Colorado Public Radio said the bill “imploded” in its final hours. 

Despite League opposition, the Montana Legislature managed to pass a number of housing reforms, including bills requiring local governments to allow duplexes, triplexes, granny flats, and residential development in commercial zones. A bill supported by housing reformers and the league that limits public hearings on individual development projects also passed. 

A League of Their Own

Since their inception, critics of leagues of cities have been trying to take away their tax funding. 

In the early and mid-20th century, a flurry of taxpayer lawsuits in California, Ohio, and Arizona challenged the legality or constitutionality of spending city funds on league dues. 

 In 1944, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled—in a case brought by a Phoenix resident against his city—that league activities weren’t a public purpose and, therefore, couldn’t be funded by municipal tax revenue. That defunded the state league for four years, before a 1948 Supreme Court decision restored cities’ ability to spend tax dollars on the league. 

In that latter decision, the court ruled that because the purposes of the league included the improved functioning of municipal government, its purposes were sufficiently “public” to warrant taxpayer funding. And if the league of cities went beyond those purposes, then the judiciary could step in again and revoke its funding. 

That hasn’t happened. Instead, critics of tax-funded government lobbying have had to take their case to leagues’ home turf: state legislatures. 

The preemption fights of the 2010s have sparked perennial, unsuccessful legislative efforts to eliminate taxpayer funding of lobbying, including the funding of municipal associations. 

“If you’re a [lobbyist] in this state, we think you ought not get more taxpayer dollars to lobby for more government. We think you ought not get tax dollars for anything,” says James Quintero of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, which has supported several bills banning public funds from being used for lobbying over the years. 

“I think that would fundamentally change the game in a hugely positive way. You would remove this artificial advocacy that exists and is growing government. You would return the people’s house back to the average citizen,” he says. 

A Texas bill prohibiting taxpayer dollars from going to lobbying activities passed the state Senate but stalled in the House this year. In Arizona, bills to prohibit league staff from receiving state retirement benefits and to prohibit taxpayer funds from going to lobbying activities both failed. 

Schleicher, the Yale professor, is critical of these efforts to totally defund municipal leagues. He says that these groups often support bad policies, including unfettered local control of housing policy. But in a world where local governments get their powers from state governments, it makes sense for them to have organized representation at the state level. 

“Cities need to work with state governments. And they can’t work with them if they can’t talk to them,” he says. “In a complex intergovernmental negotiating system, the idea that you’d have someone working in a state Capitol just seems not crazy at all.”

While it’s tempting to blame league advocacy for the failure of every bill that would remove or relax zoning restrictions, it’s also true that public support for these policies is often weak. Organized taxpayer-funded opposition is a headwind on policies that are already a tough sell.   

One YIMBY tactic is to encourage housing advocates to show up to planning commission hearings and neighborhood association meetings to make the case for individual projects and more housing generally. 

The idea was that these traditional forums for NIMBY politics could be won over to the pro-housing side if people with better ideas showed up. Perhaps something similar can happen with leagues of cities. 

In March, the housing policy committee for the League of California Cities met to consider S.B. 4, a bill that would make it easier for churches to build affordable housing on their land. Because it would override local zoning restrictions, one would assume the league would end up opposing it. 

Instead, the committee deadlocked on several motions either opposing the bill or demanding amendments to weaken it. It was the first time that the league had deadlocked in this way. (The bill has since passed out of the California Senate.) 

“I think there’s a transitional moment. The league has pretty much always taken the position of opposing most major housing bills,” says Sergio Lopez, a city councilmember in Campbell, California, and a member of the league’s housing policy committee who voted against the anti-S.B. 4 resolutions. “There’s a recognition that there’s a constituency, a majority in my community, [that believe] that there’s a need for more housing, and what we’ve done in the past is not going to cut it,” he says. 

Leagues of cities are unusual interest groups. They’re publicly funded organizations representing public officials. That gives them great influence over the policy-making process and incentivizes them to push for greater government control at the local level. 

It also makes them vulnerable. 

Unlike almost every other interest group, leagues of cities’ lobbying arms can have the majority of their funding taken away by state legislators. Changing political views on housing could see their membership replaced with officers and board members more amenable to state zoning reform. 

In wars over zoning policy, leagues of cities are both participants and, increasingly, battlefields themselves.

The post NIMBY Cities Are Using Your Tax Dollars To Lobby Against New Housing appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/9nRJa32
via IFTTT

Target Plunges For 10th Day As Boycott Leads To “Traffic Weakness”, JPM Downgrade Adds To Groom And Doom

Target Plunges For 10th Day As Boycott Leads To “Traffic Weakness”, JPM Downgrade Adds To Groom And Doom

As if Target didn’t have enough headaches on its plate with a nationwide boycotting campaign targeting the grooming-friendly retailer sending its sales tumbling after it too was Budlighted, one can also add a JPM downgrade (from Overweight to Neutral) and price target cut (from $182 to $144) into the mix.

In a note from JPM Chris Hoovers, he explains that he is downgrading TGT to Neutral based on the following:

(1) The consumer is broadly weakening while the share of wallet shift away from goods (51% of TGT sales) is ongoing.

(2) Disinflation in grocery (~40% of sales ex beauty and including essentials) continues to accelerate, eating into the ballast of TGT’s recent slightly positive to negative LSD SSS trend. TGT comped +HSD in grocery and +LSD in essentials in 1Q, adding 2-3 points to total 1Q SSS vs. the overall flat comp. However, JPM’s projection suggests this tailwind could be close to nil by 4Q. Even beauty (estimated at ~10% of sales) is slowing on a 1Y basis per Nielsen .

(3) While still positive on a 3Y basis, TGT has been giving back share on a 1Y view and this share loss could accelerate into back to school and linger into holiday given consumer pressures and what JPM tactfully calls “recent company controversies.” This, the bank says, could turn TGT’s traffic negative after an impressive run of 12 consecutive positive quarters. This shift is “generally bad for retail stock valuation given attribution is highest at the topline and, particularly for traffic.”

(4) JPM notes that TGT over-indexes to the millennial customer and, should student loan payments come back on – which they are about to, as we discussed recently –  the company is more exposed than others in JPM’s coverage. Buyside client expectations are in the $6-8MM per month consumer outflow range should this happen, which represents a potential 1-2 point comp headwind to retail spending which is material given the baseline comp discussed above.

(5) Google search surges in states representing ~37% of its stores with the biggest uptick in the south central and south Atlantic (guess what people are searching). JPM examined Google Trends data to see which states have seen the greatest increase in relative search frequency for  ̆Target Corporation ̇ over the last week (5/24/23 – 5/31/23) vs. the period from (5/25/22 -4/30/23). Using 8 as the mendoza line to measure the potential for a negative reaction, the states where search surged represent ~37% of its store base.

(6) Finally, TGT share gains have been reverting. As seen below,  TGT has been giving back share as other retailers opened and the consumer got back into stores and started dressing up for events. Despite 1Y headwinds, the trend has remained positive on a 3Y basis but this could be at increased risk given the above.

Meanwhile, as Wells Fargo also opines this morning, the controversy around Target’s collection of LGBTQ-themed merchandise for Pride Month “adds uncertainty to a stock that already had earnings risk amid a pullback in discretionary spending.”

Most importantly Wells analyst Edward Kelly writes that “there is early evidence of some financial impact, with Placer.ai data signaling incremental traffic weakness in the week ended May 28″

“Traffic has been a key bright spot for TGT as it struggled with margin issues, and a slowdown would be negative”, obviously.

As a result, TGT stock is down for a 10th session in its longest losing streak since February 2000, and together with Tranheuser Bush should serve as a great lesson for any other corporations who seek to alienate the bulk of consumers (especially those who don’t live on government handouts) just to cater to a very mentally unstable 0.5% of the population.

 

 

 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 12:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/tSUc4jg Tyler Durden

CNN Interviews Comey On Every Alleged Violation Of The Rule Of Law… Except His Own

CNN Interviews Comey On Every Alleged Violation Of The Rule Of Law… Except His Own

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former FBI Director James Comey sat down for a remarkable interview on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” this week. The interview was able to evade any mention of the findings of misconduct and false statements made by Comey. It was impressive how in a target rich environment CNN was still able to hit the small spaces between the scandals.

Cooper cut to the chase and raised the current campaign for president. Comey did not disappoint and declared Trump a “threat to the rule of law.”

I do not object to Comey voicing such an opinion. Comey then went further to declare that the GOP was now a “cult” and held forth on the need to protect the rule of law against political bias.

For those of us who have been long critics of Comey, the interview was almost a mocking parody.

Comey recently celebrated the indictment of Trump by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg despite even some liberal experts denouncing the charges as a political prosecution. The political weaponization of the criminal justice system was declared by Comey to be “a good day.”

The former FBI director, who has been teaching and speaking on government ethics, joined others in celebrating the upcoming arrest of Trump because nothing says “ethical leadership” like a patently political prosecution.

Comey declined to prosecute Hillary Clinton on her email scandal despite finding that she violated federal rules and handled classified material “carelessly.”

He declared, “Ethical leaders lead by seeing above the short term, above the urgent or the partisan, and with a higher loyalty to lasting values, most importantly the truth.”

Yet now Comey is heralding a raw political prosecution.

Cooper also did not ask Comey about the blistering report of Special Counsel John Durham on the repeated failure of his own leadership in pushing an investigation without sufficient evidence. Under his leadership, the FBI took a false Russian collusion theory pushed by the Clinton campaign and continued the investigation despite early refutation of the underlying sources and claims. That included warnings from American intelligence that the agency was using suspected Russian disinformation funneled through the Clinton campaign.

During the Sussmann trial, it was revealed that an agent told colleagues that FBI leadership, including then-Director James Comey, was “fired up” about the alleged secret communications channel between the Trump Organization and Russia’s Alfa Bank. That was also a false allegation created and pushed by the Clinton campaign.

It was Comey who was fired after former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein cited him for “serious mistakes” and violating “his obligation to ‘preserve, protect and defend’ the traditions of the Department and the FBI.”

It was Comey who violated federal laws and removed FBI material (including reported classified material) after being fired and then leaked information to the media.

None of that was relevant to an interview on allegations of misconduct at the FBI and protecting the rule of law.

It was akin to interviewing Joseph Hazelwood on good maritime practices without mentioning the Exxon Valdez.

For Comey, it was just another “good day” in the media.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 11:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/rIUswW8 Tyler Durden

Fed Hawkishness Will Be Kept At Bay By China’s Angst

Fed Hawkishness Will Be Kept At Bay By China’s Angst

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

China’s faltering recovery will restrain US and global inflation, further capping already-fading Federal Reserve hawkishness.

It was supposed to be “revenge spending” that did it. After almost three years of lockdown, the ending of restrictions in China was expected to unleash a flood of repressed consumers ready to splurge.

But if revenge is a dish best served cold, no-one’s eating it. China is in the midst of yet another false start to its recovery amid a deteriorating economic backdrop.

This has knock-on effects for the US and the rest of the world. Global inflation will remain on the soft side while still-subdued monetary stimulus will keep a lid on commodity prices. A re-acceleration in US inflation will be deferred, raising the possibility the Fed is at its peak rate.

The chart below starkly illustrates China’s diverging set of fortunes. Despite experiencing supply-and-demand-disrupting lockdowns along with everyone else, China is the only country to have seen consumer deflation since the beginning of 2020. Almost every other country has seen its largest price rises in decades.

For China’s recovery to evolve from a stumble to a run, more stimulus will be required, which will lead to rising consumer inflation, higher commodity prices, and thus a re-acceleration in global inflation.

This may seem like thinking too many steps ahead, but the fact is global disinflation is now in full swing, and therefore increasingly priced in by money markets and inflation-fixing swaps. The market upset will come when disinflation slows and price growth starts rising again.

Understanding why China has seen consumer deflation – when everyone else had the opposite – illuminates what is likely to happen next in the cycle.

During the pandemic, DM countries focused on protecting jobs and stimulating consumption. Many EMs had only nominal lockdowns as their finances were not in a position to backstop their economies. China, on the other hand, had stringent restrictions and gave little support to workers and consumers.

In short, China resorted to what it knows best, which is going for the low-hanging fruit of export-orientated growth at the expense of the household sector.

We can see this in China’s trade. Exports, predictably, surged in response to China’s pandemic stimulus. In a more balanced economy, some of this income would spread to the household sector, the largest net importer, and imports would rise too. Except imports in China stagnated even as exports rose to new highs. The wealth was not being spread.

Now exports are slowing as China hits the limits of what the world is currently willing to import. Unemployment is creeping higher, at just under 4%, but this obscures the more worrying picture in youth unemployment, rising fast and now over 20%.

China will be forced at some point to stimulate in a way that floats all boats, so-called flood-like stimulus.

That sort of easing is a big deal for China, and for the rest of the world. It was flood-like stimulus that meant China was responsible for 70% of the world’s money growth in the immediate aftermath of the GFC. It’s not hyperbole to suggest that without China, the global economy would have entered a depression.

But high debt levels and a reluctance to re-buoy the shadow-finance sector are likely staying China’s hand for now. But when job losses become too large to stomach, policy makers will relent.

We’ll know this has happened when we see a significant upturn in real M1 growth. Real M1’s inability to gain much momentum tells us why the recovery has yet to get going. But as the chart below shows, when it does it also means commodities should begin rising again.

Falling commodity prices have driven most of the decline in US headline inflation. The chart below shows headline PCE inflation split up into supply and demand components. As can be seen, the demand component has barely budged from its highs, while supply inflation – driven by commodities – has been responsible for most of the fall seen in the headline number.

The flip side is that an increase in commodity prices would quickly re-inforce still-elevated demand inflation and lead to a re-acceleration in US (and global) price growth.

China’s unemployment rate and other growth data will be key in gauging when policy makers are likely to significantly boost stimulus. Until then, the Fed and other central banks will probably become more risk averse – balancing growth concerns with the inflation outlook – with the (current) peak in rates very close (if not already here in the case of the Fed).

The faltering recovery in China will allow the Fed and other central banks to step back and perhaps even ease. But the inflation truce will only be temporary, and the underlying dynamics are such that they will have to return to the battle later in the cycle.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 11:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ILCGfZD Tyler Durden

WTI Holds Gains After Biden Admin’s 9th Straight Weekly SPR Drain

WTI Holds Gains After Biden Admin’s 9th Straight Weekly SPR Drain

Oil prices have been choppy overnight, since API reported a big surprise crude build, with WTI hovering around $68. China’s factory activity and the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend in Vienna to discuss the group’s production policy are weighing on traders’ minds, as US debt ceiling doubts fade.

“Today the market will look to US weekly inventory data and in particular the pace of Strategic Petroleum Reserve selling last week,” said Jens Pedersen, director of oil and commodities research at Danske Bank.

“Oil prices are stabilizing after better-than-expected Chinese PMIs and a halt in the recent dollar rally,” he added, referring to the purchasing managers’ index, a measure of economic activity.

The big question is whether the official data will confirm API’s big build…

API

  • Crude +5.2mm (-5.1mm exp)

  • Cushing +1.777mm

  • Gasoline +1.89mm (-900k exp)

  • Distillates +1.849mm (+500k exp)

DOE

  • Crude +4.49mm (-5.1mm exp)

  • Cushing +1.63mm

  • Gasoline -207k (-900k exp)

  • Distillates +985k (+500k exp)

The official inventory data confirmed API’s report that crude stocks rose significantly last week – after the massive draw the prior week. Cushing stocks rose for the 6th straight week. Gasoline stocks fell very modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

For the 9th straight week, the Biden admin drained the SPR last week…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production remains flat at cycle highs despite the ongoing slide in rig counts…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied up to $69 ahead of the official inventory data and extended those gains…

 

Finally, we note that US demand for oil and diesel was more robust in March than previously thought, but remained below levels seen at the same time a year ago.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 11:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/45vMVlT Tyler Durden

Josh Hawley Wants the Government To Silence A.I.


Josh Hawley

Sen. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) has cultivated a reputation as one of the federal government’s most tech-phobic legislators. Naturally, he is now setting his sights on artificial intelligence (A.I.), a technology he describes as dangerous and likely to “manipulate” Americans unless subjected to crushing regulatory burdens.

In a recent interview with Fox News, Hawley said he was “worried about AI’s power to manipulate our attention, to manipulate our opinions and to manipulate the information that we’re given.”

His solution is for the government to increase the liability incurred by companies that use A.I., such that they can be sued by users for engaging in misinformation. What constitutes misinformation, of course, is open to interpretation. Per usual, Hawley’s approach wouldn’t actually protect users of new technology—A.I., in this case—from harm. Rather, it would create opportunities for costly, constant litigation to cripple the technology.

“Already you can see these generative AI systems—these large language models—that are trained on all the information on the internet,” said Hawley.

Hawley was likely referencing ChatGPT, an A.I. chatbot that can mimic human conversation. This is a tool that, yes, could be used for ill—like most technological advances—but also has the capacity to improve human understanding, communication, and fulfillment. (Reason‘s Fiona Harrigan used it to plan dinner.) And though the very term A.I. can summon scary images from science fiction dystopias along the lines of Terminator and The Matrix, it’s important to note that ChatGPT is not thinking for itself in any appreciably sinister way; it’s essentially an online encyclopedia with an impressively vast repository, and its responses are guided by the prompts given to it by humans.

Yet Hawley frets that technologies like this one will be used to monopolize human attention spans. His concern that A.I. is being used to “misinform” Americans proves that the overhyped threat of misinformation is not solely a hobbyhorse of mainstream Democrats. The First Amendment, thankfully, prohibits the government from censoring speech that allegedly misinforms the public.

Hawley’s overall anti-tech agenda overlaps neatly with Democratic regulatory priorities. Both Republicans and Democrats have joined together to demand the repeal of Section 230, which would subject social media platforms to increased liability for user-generated speech. Progressive Democrats favor this approach in order to force tech companies to moderate more content. Republicans, on the other hand, think Facebook and Twitter are moderating too much content already, and are willing to punish the companies even if it means giving Democrats the exact result they want: increased online censorship.

This strategy has become even more glaringly flawed as of late. Twitter’s new CEO, Elon Musk, is transforming the site into a space that particularly welcomes conservative content. But it is Section 230 that empowers Musk to permit The Daily Wire and Tucker Carlson to host their programming on Twitter. Scrapping the federal statute would increase Twitter’s own liability, rendering social media’s post-at-will protocols untenable.

Yet Hawley is pushing an agenda of subjecting A.I., social media companies, and the broader tech sector to greater government scrutiny, which he describes as putting “more power in the hands of individual Americans to say, ‘I will hold you accountable if you come after me, if you manipulate me.'”

Increased regulation doesn’t make tech more accountable to users. It makes tech more accountable to politicians and federal bureaucrats, many of whom wrongly believe that the internet would be a better place if people—and chatbots!—were less free to speak.

The post Josh Hawley Wants the Government To Silence A.I. appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/MtxN0aA
via IFTTT