Ukrainians’ Desire To Join NATO And The EU

Ukrainians’ Desire To Join NATO And The EU

NATO foreign ministers are meeting in Oslo. Ahead of the session, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Sweden and urged Turkey and Hungary to ratify the Nordic country’s membership in the organization.

But, as Katharina Buchholz reports, the bigger elephant in the room during the meeting will be another nation’s membership prospects: those of Ukraine. While the country is not expected to join immediately, the question of what NATO can offer Ukraine right now will be posed during the meeting. Ukrainians’ desire to join the treaty (and the EU) is higher than ever after some hesitation, a survey from the country’s Rating Sociological Group shows.

In March 2022, the first time the survey was carried out after the Russian invasion of the country, support for joining NATO and the EU shot up in Ukraine. While the share of people for a membership in the European Union rose suddenly, support for NATO grew more gradually but reached a high of 86 percent – compared with 87 percent support for EU membership – in January. Even in 2021 and early 2022, Ukrainians’ uneasiness is visible in survey results as support for both institutions grew.

Ukraine has been an official aspirant country of NATO since 2014, but chances of a membership had been slim from the start as Russia has openly opposed Ukraine’s becoming a part of the treaty and has threatened retaliation should the country have been allowed to join. An equally unlikely prospect, but one that is just as telling of Ukrainians’ desire for peace and stability and their increased awareness of the need to find European allies is EU membership.

Infographic: Ukrainians' Desire to Join NATO and the EU | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Western Ukrainians were most in favor of joining the bodies, showing support levels above 90 percent.

Eastern Ukrainians still supported membership in the bodies at 80 percent of respondents or more being for it (Donbas and Crimea were not surveyed).

The biggest difference in opinion was seen between social groups with only 77 percent and 72 percent of poorer Ukrainians supporting EU and NATO membership, respectively, compared to 89 percent of wealthier Ukrainians.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 02:45

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Germany’s Anti-Immigration, Anti-Sanctions AfD Party Continues To Soar, Hits 18% As Green Party Plummets

Germany’s Anti-Immigration, Anti-Sanctions AfD Party Continues To Soar, Hits 18% As Green Party Plummets

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party continues to soar higher in the polls, with nearly one out of five German voters saying they would vote for the party, according to an INSA poll conducted for the Bild newspaper.

The poll shows that 10.9 million people, or 18 percent of the population, would vote for the AfD. It also shows that 15.7 million people, or 26 percent of the population, said they were open to voting for the party.

The poll places the AfD in third place, just behind the Social Democrats (SPD), who are at 20 percent. The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are in first at 28 percent. The Greens, meanwhile, have crashed to their lowest polling result since 2018 and now stand at 13 percent.

Germans are becoming increasingly receptive to the AfD’s positions on mass immigration as the left-wing government moves to liberalize immigration laws and naturalize millions of foreigners as German citizens, a move that would greatly benefit these left-wing parties at the polls. Germany has seen record population growth, with nearly 1.5 million migrants arriving in 2022. So far, this number shows no signs of slowing in 2023, as over 160,000 migrants arrived in the country in the first three months of the current year.

The costs of mass immigration are also slowly becoming hard to ignore, as schools become chaotic and understaffedhousing prices soar due to more competition, and serious crime involving foreigners continues to plague the country. The German government argues that mass immigration is necessary to save the country’s budget and pay for pensions, but figures show that the government plans to spend €36 billion in 2023 alone on migrants for housing, integration, and social benefits, undercutting this argument significantly.

The AfD is also drawing support due to its opposition to sanctions against Russia, which it argues are weakening the German economy and leading to deindustrialization. At the same time, the AfD has fiercely opposed a coalition government proposal to ban homeowners from buying new gas and oil heating systems, which experts argue will cost hundreds of millions.

The AfD party itself has long been under a threat of a total ban, and as the party rises in popularity, establishment parties may double down on their efforts to remove the party from the democratic arena.

Former AfD politician, George Pazoderski, wrote on Twitter: “Now that the AfD is at 18%, the well-known discussion about anti-constitutionalism and a ban on the party will soon be initiated, run by the usual suspects, backed by the ÖRR (German broadcaster) and relevant pro-government media.”

Remix News has documented the German government’s ongoing attempts to ban the AfD party. The domestic intelligence agency, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, has labeled the party a “suspected threat” against the country’s constitution, which allows it to spy on party members and politicians, including their emails and phone calls. The AfD’s headquarters has also been raided by police, its politicians have been victims of arson attacks, and just this month, a local AfD politician was nearly killed in a stabbing attack perpetrated by an Iraqi migrant. Despite these obstacles, the AfD continues to grow, making any ban on the party a potential constitutional crisis.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/01/2023 – 02:00

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France’s Ban on Short-Haul Flights Will Kill People


French President Emmanuel Macron

Too many politicians are thespians. When there’s a conflict—as there often is—between appearing to solve problems and actually helping to solve those problems, politicians can almost always be counted on to put appearance over substance. Unfortunately, politicians succumb to this bias even when their theatrics make real problems worse.

Consider French President Emmanuel Macron’s boast last week that his government banned many flights between cities within 2.5 hours of each other by rail. Nothing today is more en vogue than climate theatrics, sometimes at the expense of realistic, helpful policies. Macron obviously relishes the opportunity to pose as a courageous hero astride a white horse helping to save humanity from its self-destructive addiction to fossil fuels.

As pointed out by many observers, France’s ban on short-haul flights is riddled with so many exceptions that the resulting reduction of carbon emissions will fall far short of what Macron wants the world to believe. Nevertheless, maybe some flights will be banned and less aviation fuel will be burned.

Hooray! At least it’s something!

But before you get too excited, let me tell you about another French figure: Frederic Bastiat, an economist and statesman who was active in the middle of the 19th century. Bastiat’s most famous writing is a wonderful essay titled “That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Not Seen.” In it, he urged people to look beyond the immediate effects of government intervention. When you do so, and when you think about more than what government officials triumphantly trumpet, you’ll often discover additional consequences that no one wishes to take credit for.

In the case of the ban on short-haul flights, it’s easy to see what Macron sees and wants: more people traveling by train. Let’s grant that this effect is good and then look beyond the initial claims about saving aviation fuel.

What about more people traveling by automobile? After all, rail travel isn’t the only alternative to air travel, especially in France where train strikes are a regular occurrence. Denied the much greater speed of air travel, many people will opt to skip the inconvenience of buying a ticket altogether and travel by car.

One undesirable effect is a longer time spent traveling. Because people’s time is valuable and could otherwise be spent working, studying or with family and friends, the cost of traveling what the French government considers to be short distances will rise. Did Monsieur Macron carefully weigh this cost against the ban’s benefits? I’m pretty sure he didn’t. He just assumed that people’s time is of sufficiently low value to justify the flight ban. Tres arrogant!

Looking even further past “that which is seen,” you’ll see why any reduction in the burning of fossil fuels will almost certainly be less than what the French government hopes. Not only do automobiles, like airplanes, burn fossil fuel, but the amount burned by automobiles can be greater per passenger mile.

On average today for commercial aircraft, one gallon of fuel carries each passenger about 67.1 miles. The typical French automobile sold in 2019 gets about 42.8 miles per gallon. These facts means that if someone in France chooses to drive alone in one of these cars—say, from Paris to Nantes—rather than traveling by train, he will burn 57 percent more fuel than he would have while flying. And even if there are two people on this car trip, the amount of fossil fuel burned per person will be only about 22 percent less than if these two travelers had instead flown.

This math may still lead many readers to jump to the conclusion that at the very least, piling three or more people into a car for that same trip will be desirable. But peering one more step beyond that which is seen counsels against this. Here we finally see the most frightening “unseen” consequence of the short-haul flight ban: the likelihood of more roadway deaths.

A recent study out of Harvard University found that, for people traveling within the United States, Europe, and Australia, the chances of being killed while flying are 1 in 11 million, while the chances of being killed while driving are 1 in 5,000. Put differently, you’re 2,200 times more likely to be killed when traveling by car as opposed to by airplane. By diverting some travelers from the air to the roadways, the French government will almost certainly cause more travelers to die.

Political theater, it turns out, can be deadly.

COPYRIGHT 2023 CREATORS.COM.

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The Source of Law in Tyler v. Hennepin County

Several provisions of the Bill of Rights seem to rely on common law concepts to define the rights they protect, such as the Fourth Amendment’s protection of “persons, houses, papers, and effects” and the Fifth Amendment’s protection of “property.” A few years ago, I wrote (with James Stern) an article arguing that the Fourth Amendment should be understood to rely on positive law—the law of the specific jurisdiction in which the search or seizure took place—to bound what counts as a search or seizure. (Orin vehemently disagrees.) But we noted one important limit to the use of positive law—one should look to the law that would bind ordinary private parties, not the law that specifically binds the government. After all, if the government tries to give itself a special legal privilege to commit batteries and trespasses, that is exactly what the Fourth Amendment limits.

Earlier this year, Danielle D’Onfro and Dan Epps wrote an interesting article that the Fourth Amendment should be understood not in light of a specific state’s law but in light of general law—the unwritten, transjurisdictional law that was ubiquitous in federal courts during the era of Swift v. Tyson, before the revolutionary decision in Erie Railroad v. Tompkins. And while those pieces are about the Fourth Amendment specifically, the same kind of debate could translate to the Fifth Amendment’s provisions as well.

In light of that background, I was especially interested in the Court’s decision last week in Tyler v. Hennepin County. As readers surely know from Ilya’s many posts on it, Tyler is a takings case, where Minnesota law defines away a homeowner’s property rights in a way that would make it easy for the state to circumvent the just-compensation requirement. Thus, Chief Justice Roberts explains for the Court, it cannot rely purely on state law:

The Takings Clause does not itself define property. Phillips v. Washington Legal Foundation, 524 U. S. 156, 164 (1998). For that, the Court draws on “existing rules or understandings” about property rights. Ibid. (internal quotation marks omitted). State law is one important source. Ibid.; see also Stop the Beach Renourishment, Inc. v. Florida Dept. of Environmental Protection, 560 U. S. 702, 707 (2010). But state law cannot be the only source. Otherwise, a State could “sidestep the Takings Clause by disavowing traditional property interests” in assets it wishes to appropriate. Phillips, 524 U. S., at 167; see also Webb’s Fabulous Pharmacies, Inc. v. Beckwith, 449 U. S. 155, 164 (1980); Hall v. Meisner, 51 F. 4th 185, 190 (CA6 2022) (Kethledge, J., for the Court) (“[T]he Takings Clause would be a dead letter if a state could simply exclude from its definition of property any interest that the state wished to take.”). So we also look to “traditional property law principles,” plus historical practice and this Court’s precedents. Phillips, 524 U. S., at 165–168; see, e.g., United States v. Causby, 328 U. S. 256, 260–267 (1946); Ruckelshaus v. Monsanto Co., 467 U. S. 986, 1001–1004 (1984).

Now this list of additional sources has been criticized as somewhat indeterminate. But I think what the Court is describing is basically the pre-Erie general law approach. General principles and historical practice make up the more general principles of the common law, not necessarily beholden to any one jurisdiction’s local law. Because we live in a post-Erie world, it no longer seems natural to use the label “general law,” but it is general law by another name.

Interestingly, in a later part of the opinion that Court invokes a slightly different argument– that the ordinary state property law that applies to non-government transactions would also recognized a property right here:

Finally, Minnesota law itself recognizes that in other contexts a property owner is entitled to the surplus in excess of her debt. Under state law, a private creditor may enforce a judgment against a debtor by selling her real property, but “[n]o more shall be sold than is sufficient to satisfy” the debt, and the creditor may receive only “so much [of the proceeds] as will satisfy” the debt. Minn. Stat. §§550.20, 550.08 (2022). Likewise, if a bank forecloses on a home because the homeowner fails to pay the mortgage, the homeowner is entitled to the surplus from the sale. §580.10.

In collecting all other taxes, Minnesota protects the taxpayer’s right to surplus. If a taxpayer falls behind on her income tax and the State seizes and sells her property, “[a]ny surplus proceeds . . . shall . . . be credited or refunded” to the owner. §§270C.7101, 270C.7108, subd. 2. So too if a taxpayer does not pay taxes on her personal property, like a car. §277.21, subd. 13. Until 1935, Minnesota followed the same rule for the sale of real property. The State could sell only the “least quantity” of land sufficient to satisfy the debt, 1859 Minn. Laws p. 58, §23, and “any surplus realized from the sale must revert to the owner,” Farnham, 32 Minn., at 11, 19 N. W., at 85.

The State now makes an exception only for itself, and only for taxes on real property. But “property rights cannot be so easily manipulated.” Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, 594 U. S. ___, ___ (2021) (slip op., at 13) (internal quotation marks omitted). Minnesota may not extinguish a property interest that it recognizes everywhere else to avoid paying just compensation when it is the one doing the taking. Phillips, 524 U. S., at 167.

This, in essence, is the positive-law/legality approach, in which we judge the government’s actions by the same legal baselines that apply to all other parties.

Thus, without quite saying so, the Court seems to have adopted insights from both the general law and positive law models of constitutional property, using both to explain why state law usually—but not completely—describes the baseline for one’s legal entitlements.

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Republicans Call For Action As China Turns US Into ‘Hunting Ground’ For Dissidents

Republicans Call For Action As China Turns US Into ‘Hunting Ground’ For Dissidents

Authored by Frank Fang, Eva Fu and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The recent indictments of two suspected Chinese agents in California are examples of how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is trying to turn the United States into a “hunting ground” for dissidents, according to Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.).

Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) questions Matt Albence, who was then-acting director of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement, during a hearing in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, on July 25, 2019. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The two individuals attempted to bribe an undercover officer posing as an IRS agent, in a plot to revoke the tax-exempt status of an entity run and maintained by Falun Gong practitioners, according to the Department of Justice. They were arrested at their residences on May 26 and face charges of conspiracy, bribery, and money laundering.

“This is another example of just how the CCP, the Communist Chinese Party, is doing all they can to undermine our sovereignty [and] silence all dissent even in our country,” Newhouse told EpochTV’s “Crossroads” on May 30.

While U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland has characterized the case as part of China’s “campaign of transnational repression” in the United States, Newhouse gave a blunt assessment of the situation.

“I want to be clear about what I think this really means. This is a foreign government that is committing crimes against those that it deems to be a threat, right here on American soil,” Newhouse said.

The two suspected Chinese agents—John Chen from California’s Chino City and Lin Feng from Los Angeles—​​carried out their bribery campaign from January to May this year, according to prosecutors.

According to a court document, Chen characterized one of the Chinese officials the two received “direction” from as someone “that is always in charge of these matters,” during an intercepted phone call. In other words, the unidentified Chinese official could be directly involved in China’s ongoing persecution of Falun Gong practitioners in China, possibly once having a position within the regime’s extralegal body known as the “610 Office.”

The United States “should be a haven from persecution, not what they’re trying to turn it into—a hunting ground for an authoritarian government,” Newhouse added.

610 Office

Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa, is a spiritual discipline with slow meditative exercises and moral teachings. In 1999, the Chinese regime launched a persecution campaign against the group, throwing practitioners into prisons, labor camps, and brainwashing centers.

Hundreds of thousands of practitioners have been subjected to torture while incarcerated, according to the Falun Dafa Information Center, while thousands have been killed as a result of torture and abuse in police custody. Owing to strict censorship in China, the actual death toll is likely to be many times higher.

The 610 Office was set up in 1999 for the sole purpose of persecuting Falun Gong practitioners. It was disbanded between 2018 and 2019 and its functions were merged into other CCP organs, according to internal documents obtained by The Epoch Times.

Falun Gong practitioners march in Manhattan to celebrate World Falun Dafa Day, in New York, on May 12, 2023. (Larry Dye/The Epoch Times)

In June 2021, the State Department announced sanctions against Yu Hui, a former director of a regional 610 Office, for his involvement in “gross violations of human rights, namely the arbitrary detention of Falun Gong practitioners for their spiritual beliefs.”

The Chinese regime’s presence inside the United States was exposed last month, when the FBI arrested two individuals on charges of operating a secret police station in New York City on behalf of the CCP. They allegedly took orders from the regime in order to track down and silence Chinese dissidents living in the United States, prosecutors said.

Newhouse said more and more American people, as well as members of Congress, are “seeing China for what it is” because of the “aggressive actions” that China has undertaken.

“I’m glad that the DOJ and the FBI have been on their toes on this doing the right thing, holding them accountable,” he added. “Who knows what else is going on, that maybe the American people and members of Congress even aren’t aware of. So we’ve got to be vigilant.”

‘Confront China’s Repression Head-On’

In response to the alleged bribery scheme against Falun Gong, two Republican lawmakers are calling for the government to confront China’s actions in the United States.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/31/2023 – 22:05

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The U.S. Government’s Over-Classification Epidemic: Ratcliffe

The U.S. Government’s Over-Classification Epidemic: Ratcliffe

Authored by John Ratcliffe via RealClear Wire,

Classified information is a mainstay in the news these days and rarely for positive reasons. On the one hand, classified documents seem to be leaking at an unprecedented rate, often revealing not only sensitive national security information but also government impropriety. While in office, I saw this firsthand in Crossfire Hurricane, the bogus counterintelligence investigation into non-existent links between President Trump and Russia. Much of that information should never have been classified and was only tightly controlled to obscure government wrongdoing. On the other hand, overclassification of information that does not meet appropriate classification thresholds is an epidemic inside the national security apparatus. As a result, it is estimated that some 50 million documents are classified each year across the federal government.

Overclassification—or unreasonable resistance to declassification—is sometimes a result of the desire to conceal embarrassing or inappropriate actions, but it’s more often done out of convenience, laziness or good old-fashioned CYA. After all, I’m not aware of any government employee getting in trouble for classifying something that didn’t really need to be classified, but there are serious ramifications for not classifying something that should be.

In part because the executive branch has been so slow to address this issue, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in Congress has filed bills to address over-classification and declassification issues. Perhaps they are hoping to force the White House to take action, but any President should be wary of the legislative branch encroaching on their Constitutional authority to classify and control access to national security information.

However, if we are going to tackle the pervasive overclassification problem, we must also ensure that the government has a reasonable process for handling “controlled unclassified information” (CUI)—information that is not classified but is nonetheless not widely shared by the U.S. government. This is the gray area between highly sensitive national security information and widely available or non-sensitive information that’s suitable for public disclosure.

In a 2020 memo to the President’s National Security Advisor, I laid out how the current system came into effect: 

For decades, agencies often employed ad hoc, agency-specific policies, procedures, and markings to handle unclassified information that requires safeguarding or dissemination controls. This patchwork approach apparently resulted in agencies’ marking and handling information inconsistently, implementing allegedly unclear or unnecessarily restrictive dissemination policies, and creating potential obstacles to information sharing.”

This dynamic led to the Obama Administration in 2010 to issue an Executive order (EO 13556) retiring many of the various, inconsistent unclassified dissemination control markings used for this “gray area” information and replacing them all with a single marking: CUI.

This simplified approach sounded like a good idea at the time. But like many other well-intentioned government policies, it broke down in its implementation. 

In spite of the mandate to simplify the unclassified markings system, the National Archives and Records Administration’s Information Security Oversight Office (ISOO) expanded the potential new marking system to include, as I wrote in my memo to the National Security Advisor, “over 124 categories in 20 groupings, with 60 Specified and 60+ Basic categories.”

As a result, the new system is so complex and cumbersome that it has still not been fully implemented 13 years later. And it’s not only because it would be a complicated mess; it would also cost a fortune, requiring an estimated $1 billion or more to implement just in the Intelligence Community alone. What critical mission areas, I wonder, will be cut to build this new bureaucratic regime? Perhaps we’ll stop collecting intelligence on some of our hard targets or adversarial nations and divert that money to fund this latest iteration of government gone wild.

Critics called my memo a “bureaucratic bombshell” in 2020, but it is nothing compared to the bureaucratic nuclear bomb of the new CUI methodology that is already wreaking havoc and driving exasperation across the government, particularly within the national security community.

There is no question that the current marking system for both classified information and CUI has gotten way too complicated. We spend an inordinate amount of money and an outrageous amount of time training people on it—with mixed results. But it makes no sense to spend billions to create new problems rather than fix the existing ones. We need simplification. Unfortunately, the result of President Obama’s 2010 Executive order has been the exact opposite of that. And now we are just days away from a deadline, set by the Biden White House, to either revise or replace the Executive Orders dealing with both classified national security information and controlled unclassified information.

No proponent of good government could justify spending good money and wasting more time attempting to implement a clearly broken system. As a former member of Congress, I can tell you that is why some of my savvy former colleagues on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) are already considering not authorizing funds for the Intelligence Community to implement the unwieldy CUI program come September when the next budget bill arrives. They know we need reform, from cracking down on overclassification to streamlining the handling of CUI. And pushing forward with the current plan doesn’t deliver either.

John Ratcliffe served as the 6th U.S. Director of National Intelligence from 2020-2021. A Republican, he represented Texas’ Fourth Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives from 2015-2020.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/31/2023 – 21:45

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Bad News Is Now Good News In China As Market Awaits Stimulus

Bad News Is Now Good News In China As Market Awaits Stimulus

By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

China’s May PMI survey flashed the latest warning of mounting economic trouble, prompting investors to eagerly weigh the odds of more stimulus out of Beijing. Onshore equities have already relinquished the vast majority of their post-reopening gains, adding pressure on policymakers to move fast and aggressively to promote growth.

The yuan, stocks and commodity prices have fallen since late April, a reflection of China’s pessimistic economic prospects, Shao Xiang and Tao Chuan at Soochow Securities wrote in their WeChat public account on Wednesday. History suggests monetary policy rarely “stands idly by” once manufacturing PMI stays below the 50 threshold for two or more straight months, they pointed out.

The PBOC took actions in 2019, 2021 and 2022 when the factory gauge worsened — including reductions to the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR), the Medium-term Lending Facilities (MLF) rate and Loan Prime Rate (LPR). These actions occurred either during the same month or one to two months after the data was out, the Soochow analysts noted.

The PMI data confirmed China’s post-Covid recovery is “far from a self-sustained one, due to a lack of confidence among corporates and households,” according to Macquarie analysts Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang. “Now policy is the only game changer,” they said in a research report on Wednesday.

Beijing will either need to get its stimulus package in shape in the coming weeks or risk a sharp year-over-year downturn in the next quarter, according to Evercore ISI. The lockdown of Shanghai, which took place between April and May of 2022, weighed heavily on the Chinese economy and the low base of comparison suggests 2Q GDP will “look great” in year-over-year terms despite ongoing headwinds, analysts Neo Wang and Gin Wang noted.

Consensus forecast puts the pace of expansion at 7.8% year-over-year in 2Q and 5.1% in 3Q, according to a Bloomberg survey. Evercore ISI believes “it makes more sense to announce stimulus taking effects when 3Q arrives,” while Macquarie sees an “RRR cut, acceleration in infrastructure spending and more relaxation in property policy” in the weeks ahead.

Still, whether PBOC will cut MLF or LPR remains a close call given the expectations for another Fed hike in June, Macquarie cautions. More data deterioration may be needed before Beijing makes up its mind.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/31/2023 – 21:25

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Randi Weingarten Has Zero Credibility

Randi Weingarten Has Zero Credibility

Authored by Stan Greer via RealClear Wire,

In March 2020, a little more than three years ago, state and local politicians across America halted in-person classes for K-12 government schools with the purported aim of slowing the spread of the COVID-19 virus. When the school shutdowns began, few ordinary citizens had any idea how long they would last. It ultimately turned out that many school districts would remain closed until well into 2021. It’s been estimated that roughly half of America’s public schoolchildren lost a year or more of full-time, face-to-face instruction in the classroom.

Not coincidentally, both parents’ willingness to make huge financial and other sacrifices to get their kids out of the government education system and public apprehensions about the viability of public schools as institutions have soared since early 2020.

Over the course of the first two years of the pandemic, nationwide enrollment in K-12 public schools plummeted by roughly 1.2 million. The enrollment decline was typically far more severe in states where government school employees are overwhelmingly unionized, and where union bosses’ monopoly-bargaining power over teachers’ compensation and work conditions is most extensive. 

For example, 27.1% of the entire enrollment drop occurred in just two states, forced-unionism California and New York, that were home to only 17.7% of the nation’s school-aged population (that is, 5-17 year olds) in 2020. Meanwhile, a fall 2022 Gallup poll recently cited by Wall Street Journal columnist William McGurn found that nationwide public satisfaction with government schools “had dropped to 42%, a 20-year low.”

As parental and public confidence in Big Labor-dominated government schools falls, Randi Weingarten, the camera-hogging president of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT/AFL-CIO) union, personifies the problem for many concerned citizens. In the words of former Congressman and Trump Cabinet member Mike Pompeo, a particularly harsh critic: “It’s not just about Ms. Weingarten, but she has become the most visible face of the destruction of American education.”

Many Americans understandably blame union bosses like Weingarten for the fact that most American school districts within jurisdictions where Big Labor is most powerful remained shuttered long after it had become apparent that they could operate safely. School children were suffering grave educational and psychological harm as a consequence of the lockdowns.

But Weingarten pleads not guilty. Brushing aside countless well-documented examples of her viciously attacking supporters of reopening schools in 2020 and 2021, such as her July 2020 denunciation of then-U.S. Education Sec. Betsy DeVos’s pro-in person instruction stance as “reckless,” “callous,” and “cruel,” the AFT czar insists she was never against reopening per se.

At an April 26 congressional hearing on the role top union bosses played in perpetuating school shutdowns, she repeated again and again that she had always wanted schools to reopen, as long as it could be done “safely.”

This attempt at self-exoneration is laughable. Just for starters, Weingarten’s recent testimony ignored the fact that, in July 2021, nearly a year after school districts in Right to Work Florida had reopened while “avoid[ing] major outbreaks of COVID-19 and maintain[ing] case rates lower than those in the wider community,” she claimed hysterically that “millions of Floridians” were “going to die” because the state’s elected officials had refused to follow Big Labor orders to keep schools closed.

This prediction was so absurd that Weingarten subsequently decided she had no choice but to apologize for her “hyperbole.”  But she continues to invent facts to justify her COVID-19 record.

For example, in her congressional testimony late last month, Weingarten repeatedly cited a January 2021 study co-authored by epidemiologist Tracy Hoeg to justify the AFT hierarchy’s insistence that federal taxpayers had to fork over vast sums of money, putatively for costly new school ventilation systems and other mitigations, before safe reopenings could happen.  But as Hoeg, the study’s lead author, publicly pointed out within hours after the hearing’s conclusion, it actually showed rates of COVID-19 transmission were low in schools regardless of whether their ventilation systems were old or new.

In the era of COVID-19 and its aftermath, the fork-tongued Weingarten has become the personification of why state laws handing union bosses monopoly-bargaining power over K-12 public school employees, which are now on the books in well over 30 states, never should have been enacted and ought now to be repealed.

Stan Greer is senior research associate for the National Institute for Labor Relations Research.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/31/2023 – 21:05

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Combating The Censorship Industrial Complex

Combating The Censorship Industrial Complex

Authored by Charlie Tidmarsh via RealClear Wire,

It’s been nearly six months since the first installment of the Twitter Files—the journalistic effort by Matt Taibbi, Michael Shellenberger, Bari Weiss, Lee Fang, and many others to expose the myriad channels by which the U.S government cooperated with Twitter on content moderation and censorship—was first published. Twitter Files One, perhaps the mildest of more than 20 unique reports, details the social media company’s internal deliberations in the days before the New York Post’s story about Hunter Biden’s laptop was removed from the site. Later reports have exposed the tendrils of a governmental apparatus that influenced some of the most significant media distortions in recent American history, from the fraudulent Hamilton 68 misinformation tracking dashboard to the FBI’s intimate involvement with Twitter’s content-moderation practices.  

For six months, not much of consequence has happened, either in Washington or the mainstream media, in response. Those who owe us mea culpas have not provided them, tending instead to attack the individual reporters or ignore their findings. Meanwhile, some concerning developments have emerged: Congress formed the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government in order to conduct its own investigation, which would have been encouraging had it not culminated in representative Stacey Plaskett of the U.S. Virgin Islands threatening Taibbi with imprisonment for his testimony; Mark Warner’s RESTRICT Act, which would yield the federal government an enormous media-censorship leeway, was introduced in the Senate in March; Montana banned TikTok statewide; special counsel John Durham’s report on Russian interference was released and received with a profound lack of interest in the FBI’s dubious and error-laden investigation; and the Global Disinformation Index, a British NGO that ranks news outlets on a scale of “risky” to “least risky” (this website is one of the GDI’s ten “riskiest”), was shown to have received funding from the State Department (via the National Endowment for Democracy), which it subsequently lost.  

As shocking and foreboding as these anti-democratic actions are, not many commentators are treating them as interconnected expressions of a single censorship apparatus. Michael Shellenberger and his colleagues Alex Gutentag and Matt Taibbi are now undertaking a monumental attempt at defining that apparatus: they call it the Censorship Industrial Complex. Shellenberger and Gutentag are two of the few journalists who not only take the reality of increased government censorship efforts seriously but also consider it a systemic, unified, and global threat, as opposed to a few discreet but regrettable extensions of U.S. political power.  

The complex is founded on euphemistic, Astro-turfed neologisms—“misinformation,” “disinformation,” “infodemic,” and, absurdly, “malinformation,” which is defined by The Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency as information “which is based on fact, but used out of context to mislead, harm, or manipulate” (my emphasis)—and prosecuted by a coterie of journalists, academics, NGOs and nonprofits who claim neutral expertise in adjudicating what is true and what is false. World governments have eerily aligned their definitions of these terms and then cooperated with non-state actors to censor online speech in accordance, all with the stated and ostensibly noble aim of “reducing harm.”  

Their reporting, which takes place almost exclusively on Substack and Twitter (Gutentag is also a columnist at Tablet), has called attention to the ways in which major democratic governments in Europe, Canada, the UK, and Ireland are replicating the American tactic: define certain types of speech as harmful and then empower a bureaucratic network of think tanks, research agencies, and nonprofits to enforce strict Internet censorship practices that ensure that so-called harmful speech is repressed.  

The most thorough history of how this bureaucracy came into power was provided by Jacob Siegel, a former U.S Army intelligence officer in both Iraq and Afghanistan, writing in Tablet. Strikingly, Siegel compares the emergence of this new complex to its closest analog in American history: McCarthyism. And he locates its legislative origin on December 23, 2016, the date that Barack Obama signed into law the Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act. What began as a campaign against foreign information warfare morphed into a domestic censorship apparatus in the aftermath of Donald Trump taking office. In this way, it echoes the Military Industrial Complex by leveraging wartime expansions of government authority towards domestic goals. While the primary agents are certain federal intelligence and security agencies and their cooperating NGOs1, Siegel sees the media as playing a remarkably complicit role in the last seven years. “The American press, he writes, “once the guardian of democracy, was hollowed out to the point that it could be worn like a hand puppet by the U.S security agencies and party operatives.” 

Shellenberger and Gutentag have provided the first invaluable step in a massive project: they’ve defined the problem. “The Twitter Files gave us a window,” Shellenberger writes, “into how government agencies, civil society, and tech companies work together to censor social media users. Now, key nations are attempting to enshrine this coordination into law explicitly.”  

In November 2022, the E.U. passed the Digital Services Act, which legally compels large online media platforms to remove hate speech and disinformation from their platforms under threat of fines as large as six percent of annual global revenue. If passed in the U.S., RESTRICT, with its loopholes and vague jargon, threatens to give the federal government unprecedented ability to spy on the online activity of its citizens. The Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) Bill 2022, which passed the lower house of the Irish Parliament, could soon render the possession of “hateful” digital material illegal in that country. Canadian Bill C-11 has passed in the Senate, amending the former Broadcasting Act to allow the government to filter and promote streamed media. Brazil’s proposed Bill 2630, the so-called Fake News Law, will compel social media platforms to regulate “fake news” and misinformation on their platforms more strictly or face severe fines. An early draft of this bill included a provision that would allow the imprisonment for up to five years of anyone spreading content that “threatened social peace and economic order.”  

According to Shellenberger, Gutentag, and their colleagues at the Substack Public, what tends to unify these efforts is a reliance on identical, porous definitions of what counts as bad or hateful information, as well as an emphasis on words such as “safety,” “harm reduction,” and “protection.” This is precisely what makes the Censorship Industrial Complex so insidious. No one wants truly false information to dominate our important discussion spaces, or genuine hate to crowd out constructive public discourse. But the verbiage these governments operate with grants tremendous leeway in how such speech is defined and censored. This slippage has already played out in the case of Hunter Biden’s laptop, the contents of which were almost immediately deemed “disinformation” as a justification for Twitter to remove the story from its platform in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election; we now know the material was not only legitimate but in the FBI’s possession in December of 2019. 

Shellenberger and Gutentag are calling on any whistleblowers, journalists, or individuals with first-hand experience with this censorship regime to contact them immediately. The first official meeting of this growing anti-censorship movement will be held in London next month. Anyone with information or experience to share is encouraged to reach out on their website, censorshipindustrialcomplex.org, and support Public’s reporting on Substack. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/31/2023 – 20:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Xrh6MK Tyler Durden

These Five Niche Commodities Signal China’s Recovery Faltering

These Five Niche Commodities Signal China’s Recovery Faltering

China’s economic recovery from draconian zero-Covid controls is faltering. Investors had very high hopes earlier this year that the world’s second-largest economy would roar back to life and help offset weakness in the global economy. However, six months later, those same hopes have faded into disappointment. 

One of the most immediate warning signs investors are losing faith in the recovery narrative is the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell into bear market territory Tuesday, down about 20% from its Jan. 27 peak. 

While equities are important to track, we shift attention to sliding commodity prices that might give further input about China’s economic growth miracle seen over the last several decades, which has yet to reemerge and ignite a spark. Maybe that’s because of an aging population or declining workforce or supply chain reset, or enormous debt loads — whatever is hobbling China’s recovery effort might indicate the days of expanding at 6% to 8% a year are over and only 2% or 3% is the new normal. 

On the commodity front, two of the most important commodities to China’s economy, copper and iron ore, have been moving lower over the last several months. But five often overlooked commodities essential for economic growth send chilling signs of economic alarm.

“Futures markets for items as diverse as glass, styrene and corn starch are piling on the evidence that China isn’t recovering as fast as many people had hoped, after Beijing abandoned the pandemic restrictions late last year that were crushing its economy,” Bloomberg said. 

Glass 

China accounts for more than half of the world’s plate glass production thanks to the rapid growth of high-rise buildings and vehicle sales in recent decades. Similar to other industries, low margins and supply gluts have troubled producers for years, forcing them to cut output in recent months.

The situation this year looks even more challenging. Glass futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have plunged nearly 20% in the past month, a period when demand usually picks up. The reasons include China’s teetering property market and weaker-than-expected vehicle output in April. 

Trucked LNG

China has a vast requirement for natural gas, carried by sea from mega-projects in far-flung places like Qatar and Australia, or over pipelines that stretch across continental Asia. But the last few miles to consumers is often via trucks that criss-cross China’s cities, a barometer of the immediate needs of industries from glass-makers to ceramic factories.

That price has fallen to its lowest level in almost two years. Demand is so weak that the nation’s top importers of seaborne liquefied natural gas are even offering to resell their shipments abroad. 

Styrene 

Fewer home buyers also means less demand for the purchases that often accompany a new place to live. The price of styrene monomer, a material used for the plastics and rubber that go into appliances like fridges, has declined. China has been the world’s fastest growing market in the past decade with capacity climbing to over 40% of the global total.

Dalian futures fell last week to their lowest since February 2021, after a near-5% drop in home appliance sales in the first quarter, according to the National Appliance Information Center. The problems are slower growth in personal incomes and a “low-frequency sales cycle” for white goods, according to Wu Haitao, a director at the center.

Corn Starch 

Corn starch has a wide variety of uses, in soft drinks, as a thickening agent for sauces and in the paper and textiles industries. China produces almost 50 million tons a year. 

Although retail sales have outperformed other economic measurements in the months since China’s Covid Zero restrictions were lifted, they grew at a slower pace than expected in April. China’s falling population is another headwind: corn starch is a key ingredient in baby formula.

Paper Pulp 

Shanghai pulp futures went into free-fall in February after a sudden recovery in production at paper mills after the Lunar New Year holiday was augmented by resurgent imports. Domestic demand, which was also supposed to rise after China’s reopening, couldn’t keep up.

As with many commodities, China is the biggest producer and consumer of pulp, used for packaging, publishing and household goods. But the market is so vast that a lot of pulp and paper also needs to be sourced from abroad.

Meanwhile, China’s macro data has failed to show the reopening narrative coming to life. 

The faltering recovery led to China’s central bank announcing an unexpected cut in mid-May to the amount banks set aside for deposits by 25 basis points, vowing to keep ample liquidity in the interbank system and better fund the real economy.

So the question remains: What’s next for the global economy if China’s highly anticipated economic rebound doesn’t materialize?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/31/2023 – 20:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Fwdj0o5 Tyler Durden