Month: July 2023

Here’s our coverage of the boom and bust of the RV industry:

• April 2021: RV Sales Just Hit An All-Time High
• March 2022: RV Shipments Soar To Record For This Time Of Year
• July 2022: “All Of A Sudden, It Came To A Halt”: After Posting Fresh Records Just Months Earlier, RV Industry Grinds To A Halt
• Nov 2022: RV Boom Over? Monthly Shipments Plunge As Dealerships Overflow With Campers
• May 2023: RV Bust Worsens As Dealers Discount Trailers
• June 2023: RV Bust Kicks Into High Gear As Winnebago Records Big Revenue Miss

The latest results from the RV Industry Association’s June 2023 survey of manufacturers found more of the same: “Total RV shipments ended the month with 24,095 units, a decrease of (-46.4%) compared to the 44,942 units shipped in June 2022. To date, RV shipments are down (-49.2%) with 164,830 units.” 

Rather than focusing on the continued RV downcycle — mainly the result of high borrowing costs which popped the demand bubble — we thought the most critical data from this report is the ongoing surge in demand for “Park Model RVs.” 

“Park Model RVs finished June up 7.7% compared to the same month last year, with 391 wholesale shipments,” RVIA said in the report. 

What are Park Model RVs? Well… 

The most logical conclusion one can make about the soaring mobile home demand is possibly the worst housing affordability crisis in a generation has killed the ‘American Dream’ for many. We detailed this in a note last week titled Starter Homes Are Becoming Extinct, Making ‘The American Dream’ Unaffordable.

Following two years of negative real wage growth that has decimated the working poor and parts of the middle class, coupled with tens of millions of folks, have been priced out of the American Dream. It’s so evident that Home Depot now sells trailers called “Gateway Pad.” 

Isn’t ‘Bidenomics’ Great? 

Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

There was an unexpected surge in the diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes among children and teenagers worldwide amidst the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study.

The systematic review, published by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), analyzed 42 studies on diabetes incidence, including 17 studies involving nearly 38,000 people under the age of 19. The review revealed a 14 percent surge in Type 1 diabetes cases in 2020, followed by a 27 percent increase in 2021, compared to before the pandemic.

Furthermore, the research highlighted a rise in Type 2 diabetes incidence and diabetic ketoacidosis, a severe complication of diabetes more common in Type 1 patients, after the start of the pandemic.

What Is the Link Between COVID and Type 1 Diabetes?

The exact connection between COVID-19 and the higher risk of developing diabetes is unclear, according to the authors of the study. However, some doctors disagree.

Type 1 diabetes is well established as an autoimmune disease, where the body attacks its own pancreatic beta cells, a primary source of insulin.

Both viral infections and vaccinations are known triggers for autoimmune diseases, and COVID-19 and its vaccine could be no exception, Dr. Paul Marik, a critical care physician, former tenured professor at Eastern Virginia Medical School, and co-founder of the Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care (FLCCC) Alliance, told The Epoch Times.

The spike proteins present in the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as those produced by the body after vaccination, are very likely to be causing autoimmunity, according to Dr. Marik.

“There is few doubts that SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is the most likely trigger of Type 1 diabetes,” Dr. Flavio Cadegiani, an endocrinologist and researcher at Federal University of São Paulo in Brazil, told The Epoch Times via email.

The primary role of COVID-19 spike proteins is to attach to ACE-2 receptors on cell surfaces and enter the cells. Pancreatic beta cells, which have ACE-2 receptors, are vulnerable to infection and potential damage caused by spike protein entry.

Spike proteins also share similarities with human proteins, and their presence may lead the body to produce antibodies that not only target the spike protein but also attack human tissues, including the pancreas.

This phenomenon of molecular mimicry is seen in vaccine-injured patients, and those with long COVID, Dr. Marik said. Studies have found autoantibodies—antibodies that attack the body’s own tissues or cells—in both groups of patients.

Type 2 Diabetes: More Common and Complicated Consequence

The study may mistakenly conflate Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes as the same disease, hence the “no clear underlying mechanism” conclusion, board-certified internist Dr. Keith Berkowitz told The Epoch Times.

Type 2 diabetes, compared to Type 1, is more complex and metabolic, influenced by factors like obesity, processed food, heart disease, blood cholesterol, and hypertension.

Dr. Berkowitz said he has observed a unique blood glucose dysregulation pattern in his post-COVID and post-vaccine patients.

Patients with Type 2 diabetes typically have high blood sugar levels with high or low insulin levels as the beta cells become fatigued. However, Dr. Berkowitz said he observed that some of his patients had low blood sugar alongside high insulin levels, a condition he said he has never encountered before.

“Even my well-controlled diabetic patients are not faring well, especially those who have received both vaccinations and had COVID infections,” Dr. Berkowitz added.

Dr. Berkowitz uses intravenous fluids to address these conditions in Type 2 diabetics, restoring their water balance and blood sugar regulation. “When a diabetic goes to the hospital, the first thing they do is administer intravenous saline because insulin doesn’t work well in a severely dehydrated cell,” he said.

Treatment for Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

Autoimmunity is a condition where the body’s immune system mistakenly identifies its own cells, tissues, or organs as foreign invaders and attacks them. This can lead to various autoimmune diseases.

But the body may be brought back into balance.

1. Remove COVID-19 Spike Protein

The spike protein may contribute to autoimmune disease, prompting doctors to consider therapies that may remove these inflammatory proteins.

Research suggests that fasting can trigger autophagy, the process of clearing old, damaged, and foreign proteins.

Intermittent fasting and prolonged fasts, even for three days, may “reset” the immune system, potentially reducing autoimmune activity. Fasting, however, is not recommended for children or pregnant or breastfeeding women.

Other recommended therapies for spike protein removal include ivermectin, an antiparasitic drug, and N-acetylcysteine (NAC) supplementation.

2. Supplement With Vitamin D

Vitamin D insufficiency, a common deficiency among the U.S. population, has been linked to autoimmune disorders.

Research shows vitamin D supplementation reduces autoimmune disease risk by 22 percent. Infants given vitamin D also have lower Type 1 diabetes incidence, a 2001 study found.

Vitamin D reduces inflammation and provides infection protection. Some scientists propose it helps the immune system differentiate between self and non-self.

Dr. Cadegiani stated that one of his first therapies is to increase Type 1 diabetes patients’ vitamin D levels between the range of 60 to 90 ng/ml, which is around 6,000 to 9,000 IUs of dietary vitamin D per day.

Vitamin D is also linked to improved insulin sensitivity.

3. Reduce Sugar Intake 

Sugar contributes to inflammation, and studies have found that those who consume high levels of sugar over extended periods are at a higher risk of developing autoimmune diseases.

In the case of patients with Type 1 diabetes, Dr. Cadegiani said that cutting glucose and carbohydrate consumption reduces insulin, and, therefore, can prevent the body from forming more autoantibodies against pancreatic beta cells.

4. Hydroxychloroquine

Dr. Cadegiani said that he sometimes prescribes hydroxychloroquine when a patient is positive for Type 1 diabetes antibodies, but still has around normal blood sugar levels.

The anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine is a powerful drug that fights autoimmune diseases. It is able to bind to the ACE-2 receptors and prevent spike protein entry and is also able to block spike protein from causing further harm.

It is currently approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use in chronic discoid lupus erythematosus, systemic lupus erythematosus in adults, and rheumatoid arthritis, all autoimmune diseases.

Studies have shown that hydroxychloroquine can also reduce blood sugar and is associated with a reduced risk of Type 1 diabetes. The use of chloroquine, a hydroxychloroquine derivative, in Type 1 diabetes cases can reduce inflammation in the body.

5. Plant Supplements 

Plant supplements like curcumin and berberine also have anti-diabetic properties and may help prevent Type 1 diabetes.

Curcumin can decrease blood sugar and insulin levels and reduce inflammation and oxidation. Some theories have suggested that curcumin may be able to prevent the immune system from overreacting, which results in autoimmunity.

Curcumin reduces inflammation in the gut, helping with digestion and overall gut health. An unhealthy gut can lead to a dysregulated immune system, increasing the risk of autoimmunity.

Despite being a plant compound, berberine has been found to have potent blood glucose-lowering properties. Berberine has been shown to be protective against pancreatic beta cells and also improve insulin resistance.

Thus, both patients with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes may supplement with berberine. Those already taking medications for diabetes may need to consult their doctors before supplementing with berberine.

6. Diabetes Drugs 

Dr. Cadegiani also uses diabetes drugs like metformin and liraglutide to treat and prevent Type 1 diabetes.

Metformin is a common diabetes drug that can reduce blood sugar levels. In Type 1 diabetes, metformin increases insulin sensitivity and action and also increases peripheral glucose uptake.

Liraglutide increases satiety and slows gastric emptying. Studies have also shown that the drug increases pancreatic beta cell mass, improves the cells’ functions, and prevents beta cell deaths, all of which may help prevent Type 1 diabetes.

North Korea may be allied with Russia, but the Ukrainian army has started firing North Korean rockets at Putin’s forces. It’s the latest illustration of how the West’s drive to sustain its proxy war against Russia has turned Ukraine’s arsenal into a wacky smorgasbord of the world’s weapons, transcending both time and geography. 

The North Korean rockets are being fired from Ukraine’s Soviet-era Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) launchers. Their use was first reported by the Financial Times, after Ukrainian troops showed them off to the paper’s reporter. The soldiers say the rockets were “seized” from a ship by an unidentified “friendly” country.

A Ukrainian defense official implied the rockets may have instead been captured from the Russians. “We capture their tanks, we capture their equipment and it is very possible that this is also the result of the Ukrainian army successfully conducting a military operation.” Or maybe not. 

Whatever their precise origin, the rockets are nothing to brag about. A Ukrainian artillery officer told FT that the North Korean rockets — mostly manufactured some 30 or 40 years ago — are used grudgingly, as they’re highly prone to misfiring or failing to detonate. Accordingly, the soldiers cautioned against standing near the launcher while it was in action, saying the rockets “are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes.”

News of the presence of North Korean rockets in Ukraine’s arsenal comes just days after Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu visited Pyongyang to mark 70 years of the Korean War armistice and to “strengthen cooperation” between the countries. 

Western governments have been going to great lengths to keep Ukraine’s army in action, to the point of significantly decreasing their own arsenals.  Most recently, the United States started supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions, which are banned by an international treaty that has 108 signatories — but not the United States. 

It’s only a war crime of someone else does it?

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki in 2022 acknowledging the use of cluster bombs by Russia is a war crime. A year later Biden does same thing pic.twitter.com/bCmmJ51krW

— Veterans For Peace (@VFPNational) July 14, 2023

Asked about the controversial move, President Biden went off-script and acknowledged the real reason why his administration would provide Ukraine with weapons known to cause disproportionate harm to civilians — weapons that his own administration had condemned when it was suggested that Russia might be using them: “[The Ukrainians] are running out of [155mm artillery shells], and we’re low on it.” 

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

No Way Out

“…you put me right smack in the middle of the Diversion Agreement that I should have no role in… and you say Your Honor, don’t pay any attention to that provision not to prosecute?”

– Federal Judge Maryellen Noreika

Of course, Hunter Biden’s fur-lined, gold-plated plea deal on firearm and tax charges got torn up this week by Federal Judge Maryellen Noreika, who discovered a sneakily hidden bit of legerdemain in it that would have left the First Son off-the-hook for any possible future charges such as a FARA rap for peddling his father’s influence to Ukraine, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Romania, and who knows how many other foreign governments for zillions of dollars.

One thing the legal fireworks on Wednesday seemed to indicate is that the weaponization of the DOJ does not extend to every last court in America, not even the one in the Biden family fiefdom known as Delaware. The hearing left the lead US attorney in the case, David Weiss, looking like a chump hung out to dry – trying to pretend that there were “ongoing investigations” in the case when he was actually working overtime to shut them down.

It’s rumored that the rascally, discarded plea deal was cooked up by alpha blobette, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco herself, the Blob’s consiglieri. Nice try, Sugar, but no cigar.

Lisa Monaco is in place, you see, as AG Merrick Garland’s puppeteer.

For more than a decade Ms. Monaco has chiefly served as Barack Obama’s “fixer,” the clean-up gal who makes problems magically go away.

The problem here is that sooner or later news will enter some legal channel that Mr. Obama was not unaware of all the grifting going on around his vice-president’s family, and might himself be inculpated as an accessory to acts of treason.

The former president suddenly has another new problem: the family’s onetime personal chef, Tafari Campbell, 43, was found dead around 10:00 o’clock Monday morning in the Edgartown Great Pond off the Obama’s Martha’s Vineyard estate after a paddle-board accident. Mr. Tafari allegedly fell off the board and… thrashed a bit… then just disappeared… a hundred feet off-shore in eight feet of water, according to another paddle-boarder as yet unidentified who was either with Mr. Tafari or who happened to witness the accident around 7:45 Sunday evening July 23. Somebody, also unnamed, then made a 911 from the Obama house. Who was that? Early reports said that the Obamas were not home at the time.

A later report said that Mr. Obama might have been present at the estate that evening without Michelle. Was he Mr. Tafari’s paddle-board companion? Did he make the 911 call? Mr. Tafari was reportedly no longer in the Obama’s employ and was writing a book about his experiences as the first family’s cook. One reported morsel attributed to the book is that Barack and Michele Obama almost never had meals together. What else was in it?  Possibly Mr. Tafari had a book deal. Has anyone located the editor and asked to see the manuscript or interviewed him/her/they about what’s in it? Mr. Tafari, who had videotaped his lap-swimming abilities previously, and was considered an able swimmer, was supposedly just visiting Martha’s Vineyard for the weekend. How did he get through the Obama’s Secret Service security to go paddle-boarding if the Obamas were out for the evening? Did he lug his own paddle-board to the scene, or borrow one from the Obama’s equipment shed? Who let him in there? My goodness, what a busy gal Lisa Monaco must be these days. So much that needs a good fixing!

Anyway, after the Delaware courtroom fracas Wednesday, Hunter had to fall back on pleading not guilty as a place-holder while his lawyers and the Feds go back to square one negotiating something Judge Noreika might accept, which, conceivably, might be no plea deal at all, considering the insults already proffered to her by both sides in the case. In the meantime, would it amuse you to learn that part of Hunter Biden’s pretrial release agreement stipulates that the First Son must make an earnest effort to search for employment? Do you know of some position in the real world (assuming there is a real world) where a person can show up for work with six secret service agents in tow? I didn’t think so. He’ll also be subject to periodic drug tests and is forbidden to indulge in alcohol. Good luck with that!

The chance that Hunter would actually go to trial, even on these rinky-dink tax and firearm charges, is about equal to the chance that Xi Jinping will serve a dim sum breakfast to the Biden family at Rehobeth Beach on Labor Day morning. But its looking like Judge Noreika will not let Hunter off-the-hook on the gargantuan hairball of potential influence peddling matters, which are the actual meat of the Biden family’s legal problems — and that means “Joe Biden” is not off-the-hook either. Which means he might have to resort to pardoning Hunter and possibly himself for as-yet-unfiled charges of bribery, money-laundering and other extremely serious violations. If that happens, it is the end of the pretense that “Joe Biden” is a reelection candidate.

But, while all this melodrama unspools, there is also the creeping hazard of impeachment ahead. The Speaker of the House himself suggested it days ago. Rep. James Comer’s House Oversight Committee has already assembled an impressive stack of bank records tracing the journeys of various multi-million-dollar payments – for no particular services rendered — through an unholy host of shell companies and is now rumored to be compiling records of previously hidden Biden family offshore bank accounts in places such as the Cayman Islands and Panama.

Biden Family foot-soldier Devon Archer is scheduled for a deposition this coming Monday, and since he was thrown under the bus by Hunter on a federal bond fraud rap a few years back, there is every expectation that he will unload a dumpster of ripe trouble on his former intimates. However, Monday is also the last day before the legislature’s summer recess, which means not much of anything may happen to advance any of these matters until early September – and then it is possible that all hell busts loose for the republic as we enter the traditional season of hurricanes and financial fiascos, not to mention what looks like a mounting acknowledgement that our Ukraine proxy war project has utterly failed… and this overhanging threat of impeachment hearings.

Podcaster Scott Adams spun out an elegantly macabre possible scenario about how this works out which is worth repeating here:

The House moves to impeach…

Joe Biden retaliates by threatening the entire Deep State Blob with revealing a whole lot of dark info on their dastardly secrets, their sexual proclivities and adventures (think: the Epstein client list), and other incriminating deets-and-receipts that would, theoretically, bring ruin to scores of political celebrities.

In which case, the Blob just up and offs dumb-ass “Joe Biden,” using their cunning ways of arranging for him to die in his sleep…

…because, he was old… and it was his time…

Salutes to you, Scott, for that one! (And then, of course, there is all that follows that).

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page

Besides blaming the commercial real estate office tower crash in Baltimore City’s Inner Harbor district (read: here & here & here) solely on remote work, out-of-control crime is another major issue sparking the business exodus. It’s not us saying this, but large financial institutions we spoke with who dare not utter this in the public domain for fear that Democrats in City Hall would weaponize some city agency after them have told us this. 

They also said one of the breaking points was a horrific incident in the summer of 2022 when 48-year-old Timothy Reynolds was shot in the back by a so-called ‘squeegee boy’ in the crime-ridden district at an intersection on President Street. 

Reynolds, 48, grabbed a baseball bat and approached the group of teens, who were apparently harassing and extorting motorists for cash to wash their windshields. One of the teens grabbed a pistol and shot the man in the back, face, and neck. He bled out and died of his injuries. Office workers are routinely harassed by teens on the strip of roadway.

One year after motorist Timothy Reynolds was shot dead at a downtown intersection, a former squeegee kid is preparing to stand trial. The 15-year-old will stand trial for murder on July 17. https://t.co/z3KjjgTm6T pic.twitter.com/u949w72QK0

— FOX Baltimore (@FOXBaltimore) July 7, 2023

One year later, the shooter, 16, Tavon Scott, was acquitted of first and second-degree murder, but jurors found him guilty of voluntary manslaughter of Reynolds. Jurors rejected the idea the killing of Reynolds was premeditated murder, even though Scott put on a face mask to hide his identity and retrieved a gun from a backpack. 

Lawyers for Scott argued he acted in self-defense, while prosecutors stated Reynolds was walking away when the teen unleashed a hail of bullets at the motorist, according to The Baltimore Sun. 

Besides being convicted of voluntary manslaughter, Scott was also found guilty of two gun-related crimes — using a gun in a crime of violence and using a firearm while under age 21. 

“This was not a case of self-defense. This was not a case of an accident. This was not a case of the gun going off. This was not a case of a child being frightened,” said Thiru Vignarajah, an attorney for the Reynolds family leading up to the trial.

Comments from the family’s attorney Thiru Vignarajah @wjz pic.twitter.com/GHzivG8VEm

— Mike Hellgren (@HellgrenWJZ) July 27, 2023

Meanwhile, The Sun said a woman juror was in tears after finding Scott guilty. She looked at the teen and mouthed: “I’m sorry.” 

Everyone is entitled to self-defense, but it’s unjustifiable for anyone to shoot another person in the back.

Even though the jury acquitted this magical youth of murder, they still felt bad they convicted him of anything. It’s increasingly difficult for juries to convict blacks for the murder of whites. Our culture demands juries sympathize more with the assailant than with the victim https://t.co/d5OL3Rrmqx pic.twitter.com/1HY38dISKZ

— Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 (@ScottMGreer) July 27, 2023

So who created the conditions for this horrific incident to happen? Well, one possible answer is the progressives in City Hall, who have failed to enforce law and order. 

And now you understand why office workers want out of the crime-ridden city. 

By Colin Demarest of Defense News

A longtime U.S. Army acquisition officer and aviator has died in a plane crash near Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

Maj. Gen. Anthony Potts, who until weeks ago led the service’s Program Executive Office Command, Control and Communications-Tactical, or PEO C3T, died at the scene near 3600 Old Level Road in Havre de Grace, according to the Harford County Sheriff’s Office and media reports.

Potts was the only person in the single-engine plane when it went down in a field July 25. No one on the ground was hurt. Dozens of first-responders were dispatched to search for the wreckage, according to the Level Volunteer Fire Company. The National Transportation Safety Board said it is investigating the matter.

Potts, who grew up in Kentucky, planned to retire soon after nearly four decades of military service. He was commissioned as an Army aviation second lieutenant in 1986 and later served in operations Desert Shield, Desert Storm, Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. He was also an attack helicopter platoon leader in Germany.

Potts most recently helmed PEO C3T, tasked with developing, deploying and supporting battlefield communications gear. Before that, he led PEO Soldier, which deals in everyday equipment, such as uniforms, body armor, night-vision devices and guns. Both roles were considered critical to protecting troops and modernizing the way the Army fights.

Maj. Gen. Robert Collins, who led PEO C3T prior to Potts, in June 2022 described the Kentuckian as “a truly a strategic and critical thinker, a team builder.”

“He understands the modernization instrument and how it runs,” Collins said at the time, “and he certainly understands that the centerpiece of our modernization is our soldiers.”

One alleged truck thief is dead, another wounded in a Texas shootout that also left the vehicle’s owner wounded. The dead man’s brother audaciously claims “the victim was my brother” — a sentiment that will find few subscribers in the Lone Star State.  

The action started early Thursday afternoon at the South Park Mall on the southwest side of San Antonio. A 45-year-old man exited the mall along with his female passenger, only to find his Ford truck was missing. Looking around, they spotted the truck in a nearby lot at the same mall — with the apparent thieves sitting in it. 

The owner approached his truck and — displaying a pistol — ordered the 34-year-old male driver and the thief’s 25-year-old female passenger to step outside and take a seat on the pavement. Two minutes after police were called, the male suspect drew a pistol from his waistband and shot the truck’s owner. 

The owner returned fire, hitting and killing the shooter and critically wounding the shooter’s companion. Clarifying the account at a press conference held at the mall, San Antonio police chief William McManus said, “The bad guy is the one dead, yes. The driver of the stolen vehicle is deceased, shot by the owner of the stolen vehicle.”

When questioned about the propriety of the truck owner’s actions, McManus was quick to render a verdict. “Certainly a case of self-defense is what we have. Look, he was trying to recover his property,” McManus said. “I guess it would depend on who you asked if he did the right thing or not.”

“We would prefer that they call the police before taking that into your own hands,” McManus said. “But he (the truck’s owner) did what he felt he needed to do and we have one dead suspect and we have a critically wounded passenger who was with the suspect and we have a wounded owner of the vehicle.”

Speaking to KENS 5 at the scene, the dead man’s brother, Jose Garcia, said the truck owner was wrong:

“The victim was my brother and there are two sides to every story. Whether my brother was wrong or right, he had a gun pointed at him. I guess he took it upon himself to defend himself.

The guy who shot him is a vigilante, not a hero. A vehicle is not worth taking someone’s life, I don’t care what kind of car it is. You don’t take the law into your own hands. Now my mom, my family, we all have to suffer and just deal with it.”

Texas affords citizens more latitude than most when it comes to using force to recover stolen property.  “Potentially, under Texas law, he may have been acting within what the law says he got to do,” Alexandra Klein, an assistant law professor at San Antonio’s St. Mary’s University told NBC. 

Here’s to armed self-defense and laws that enable the defense of property. 

By Sagarika Jaisinghani and Farah Elbahrawy, Bloomberg markets live reporters and strategists

Shaky Earnings Outlook Can’t Stop Rally For Now

Europe’s earnings outlook seems increasingly shaky. So, it’s a good thing that it might all be priced in already.
While prospects for Corporate America appear brighter as recession worries ease, a host of challenges are spoiling things across the Atlantic, including a wobbling economy and unhelpful gains in the euro. Still, that hasn’t stopped the Stoxx 600 from grinding about 3% higher since the start of the season.

About halfway through this term’s report card, earnings for the MSCI Europe are down by almost 12% on a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s the first drop since 2020. Over in the US, companies are presenting the most earnings beats in two years.

European investors spoiled by this year’s stock rally have been quick to show their disapproval of underwhelming numbers, as the post-earnings slumps in luxury-goods giant LVMH, software company SAP and UK lender Barclays illustrate. On average, companies that missed profit estimates so far have underperformed the index by 2 percentage points on the day — the harshest punishment in almost six years, data from Bank of America shows.

That said, there are some hints that investors have started to price in the bad season. For example, while many firms in the chemicals sector issued profit warnings in June, share-price reaction has moderated with each new announcement. Croda International fell sharply on the day of its warning, but Clariant, BASF and Wacker Chemie all rose after theirs.

Worryingly, Europe’s fortunes are only set to diverge further from the US in the second half, as business activity weakens and sticky price pressures test the resilience of the region’s consumers, market participants say.

European conditions continue to look challenging,” says Stephanie Niven, a London-based portfolio manager at investment firm Ninety One. “There’s still a lot of inflationary pressures and we need to see the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy begin to feed through. Europe could feel more pain in the coming nine months.”

Star billing in next week’s earnings line-up goes to Anheuser-Busch InBev, BP and BMW, who will face investor scrutiny of how they are navigating stubbornly high costs at a time of slowing spending power in households across the region. Meanwhile, a weakening dollar threatens to be a headache for exporters such as distiller Diageo and health-care group Fresenius. Beverages group Davide Campari has already lamented the negative currency effects it fears it will have to manage.

There are early indicators of bad news ahead for European earnings in the rest of the year. Analysis by BofA shows that Europe’s earnings revision ratio — the measure of profit upgrades against downgrades — is at its lowest since January for the past four weeks. UBS strategists say the region’s CEOs are sounding the most gloomy on earnings calls since the Covid pandemic.

The team at Sanford C. Bernstein is more optimistic. While strategists Sarah McCarthy and Mark Diver acknowledge the darker economic outlook, they argue regional equities are already priced for a slowdown. Cheaper valuations compared with the US also make Europe more attractive in the event of a slowdown, they said.

Grace Peters, EMEA head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, also sees scope for European equities to rally after underperforming the US since April. “We believe that there is a catch-up trade here, particularly if European earnings hold up versus consensus expectations this earnings season, as they have so far,” Peters says.

The last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia continues hanging in the balance. Already key aspects to the New START treaty have been rolled back by both sides, such as mutual inspections of nuclear arsenals, but this week it’s emerged that the White House is withholding an expected proposal that was due to be given to Russia on nuclear limitations.

Arms control experts have denounced President’s Biden’s failure to submit the proposal to Moscow, arguing it puts both superpowers on a further collision course which may eventually have catastrophic nuclear consequences. 

According to Reuters, “Russia’s apparent rejection of the plan last week and what several arms control experts say was a White House failure to formally convey it to Moscow have fueled concerns about whether there would be enough time to reach a new pact.”

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association (ACA) watch group, said “There is no excuse that the administration has delayed for nearly two months the formal communication of this proposal to the Kremlin.”

He explained that these negotiations would be “difficult in good times and extraordinarily difficult so long as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues”—strongly suggesting that New START is slipping away.

As for the Russian side, it has blamed Washington’s “hostile” actions related to the Ukraine war. This as last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov confirmed that Moscow had yet to receive any proposals from the Biden administration on resuming arms control talks.

“I would like to say that we are not ready to and will not conduct this dialogue based on what the Americans are now proposing, as they ignore several key points in this entire configuration,” Ryabkov said.

“We must first and foremost make sure that the US policy, which is fundamentally hostile toward Russia, is changing for the better for us,” he added. “That is far from happening now and, I would rather say that the opposite is going on.”

In March 2021 the two sides renewed New START for a period of five years, and it will expire in February 2026 if it’s not continued – an increasing possibility given US-Russia relations have deteriorated so fast over the Ukraine war they are near complete breaking point. 

The treaty is intended to limit and reduce nuclear arms on either side, setting a limit of no more than 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 missiles. START I began in 1991, with New START signed under the Obama and Medvedev administrations in 2010 as a successor agreement. Time is running out at a moment the Ukraine proxy war keeps sliding towards escalation.