The Value Of Agriculture To European Economies

The Value Of Agriculture To European Economies

According to World Bank figures, Agriculture, forestry and fishing account for around 1.6 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product.

However, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, there is wide variation in the continent though, with Germany, for example, one of the least economically dependent countries in Europe on agriculture, alongside the United Kingdom (0.7 percent) and Switzerland (0.6 percent).

Infographic: The Value of Agriculture to European Economies | Statista

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Such low values are common for highly developed nations, which generate the majority of their value added in the service sector.

In Germany, for example, the service sector accounts for around two-thirds of gross value added.

Agriculture is significantly more important in Albania (17.7 percent of GDP), Ukraine (10.6 percent) and the Republic of Moldova (10.6 percent).

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/31/2023 – 05:45

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How Long Will The War Last

How Long Will The War Last

By Steven Kopits of Princeton Policy Advisors

Many in the media and politics anticipated dramatic and rapid Ukrainian victories during the summer of 2023. Nevertheless, progress on the ground has been slow, raising the prospects of a protracted war.

This begs the question: Just how much longer could the war last?

The precedent of prior wars is one way of looking at the issue.  On the graph below, we consider the three wars perhaps most similar to the current war, each involving Russia.

The Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905 lasted one year and three months.  The current war has already run longer, and therefore we can safely dismiss this example as relevant.

The next longest war of interest is the Crimean War of 1853-1856, which lasted two and one-half years.  If this were the template, the current war might be expected to end in August 2024.  

The longest arguably comparable war was World War I, which ran three years and seven months, implying an end date of September 2025.

If one were to guess, the Crimean War would seem the likely precedent.  By August 2024, the Ukrainians will have eliminated 430,000 Russian soldiers (if we accept the Ukrainian body count and 500 incremental eliminations per day).  Russia lost 450,000 soldiers in the Crimean War, so the scale would appear similar, granting that imperial Russia’s population was approximately half the current level of the Russian Federation.

Russia has had longer conflicts, including the Second Chechen War, which lasted ten years, or for that matter, the first phase of the Ukrainian War, which ran from 2014-2022. Nevertheless, both these wars were low level affairs from the Russia perspective.  For example, total Russian losses in the Second Chechen War are estimated at no more than 14,000, fewer than the Russians are losing every month in Ukraine.  Large countries like the US and Russia can maintain low level conflicts almost indefinitely.

Major wars, however, are another matter, and the current conflict in Ukraine constitutes a major war from both the Russian and Ukrainian perspective.  The dynamics are therefore likely to follow those of other major wars. This suggests slightly better than even odds that the war ends within a year and near certainty that it ends by September 2025.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/31/2023 – 05:00

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Brickbat: Separate and Unequal


Racially diverse trio of elementary school children.

Several schools in London, England, are offering summer literacy lessons that are open only to black students to “accelerate progress in reading and writing whilst also developing the children’s knowledge of black history and culture.” They are not offering a similar program for white students even though educational achievement is lower for whites from a disadvantaged background than for students from other ethnic groups from a disadvantaged background.

The post Brickbat: Separate and Unequal appeared first on Reason.com.

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The UK Leads The Way With Consulting Its Workers On AI

The UK Leads The Way With Consulting Its Workers On AI

The latest OECD report on artificial intelligence and the labour market focuses on the manufacturing and finance sectors, providing insight to perceptions around the main benefits and drawbacks of AI in the workplace.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, researchers found that the UK is leading the way when it comes to employers actively consulting workers or workers representatives on the use of the new technology. The UK was followed by Ireland and Germany, while the United States and France lagged further behind.

Infographic: The UK Leads the Way With Consulting Its Workers on AI | Statista

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According to the paper, workplaces were more likely to report that AI could improve their performance and working conditions if their workers or worker representatives had been consulted on the topic: For companies in finance, there was as much as an 18 percentage point increase compared to workers in companies that did not consult workers or worker representatives, while in the manufacturing sector there was a 19 percentage points difference.

It is unclear whether this difference is due to the consultations encouraging employers to use AI in a more productive, fulfilling and safe manner, or whether simply the act of being consulted was enough to encourage increasingly positive perceptions of AI.

The most common topics discussed in these consultations across both sectors were on skills and training needs. In manufacturing, the second most common topic was the impact of working conditions, while in finance it was the use of data. In both sectors, potential job loss and impact on wages were the topics least likely to be discussed.

These talks often led to actionable results. According to the report, 60 percent of employers that consult workers or worker representatives in finance, and 65 percent of those that do the same in manufacturing, said that consultations resulted in at least one outcome, such as changes to/the adoption of guidelines or changes to/the adoption of an AI strategy. In both sectors, over a third of employers said that consultations resulted in a collective agreement.

Just two sectors (manufacturing and finance) were selected in order to limit the scope of research and to avoid the generalities that are often brought up in public discourse on AI.

Since AI can take many forms and be combined with an array of technologies, its impact on workers is not uniform. 

Finance and manufacturing offer a particularly high prevalence of AI compared to other sectors, and according to the writers, are interesting for between-sector comparisons since they have fairly different worker profiles.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/31/2023 – 04:15

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Why The World Just Can’t Kick Coal

Why The World Just Can’t Kick Coal

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

  • U.S. coal demand has decreased due to the increased availability of natural gas, growth in renewable energy sources, and stricter environmental regulations.

  • Despite the decline in the US, global coal consumption, especially in Asia and China, which consumes 55% of the world’s coal, continues to rise due to the relative cheapness and abundance of coal, and rapid industrialization.

  • Coal demand rebounded in the US and EU in 2021 and 2022 due to the European energy crisis and increased coal burning as an emergency measure, raising concerns over the ability to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

In the U.S., coal demand has been on a downward trend for about 15 years. There have been three significant drivers behind this decline.

One of the primary reasons for the decline in U.S. coal demand is the increased availability and affordability of natural gas. The advent of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and advanced drilling techniques led to a significant expansion of natural gas production, resulting in lower natural gas prices. Many power plants have shifted from coal to natural gas as it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and can be more economically viable.

At the same time, there has been substantial growth in renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Falling costs and government incentives have made renewable energy more attractive for power generation, reducing the need for coal-based electricity.

Stricter environmental regulations on emissions, especially from coal-fired power plants, helped drive this shift. The regulatory changes were implemented to address air and water pollution, as well as climate change concerns. These regulations have made coal-based electricity generation less competitive compared to cleaner alternatives.

These are positive developments given coal’s role as the fossil fuel source with the highest carbon dioxide emissions.

However, it’s very important to note that U.S. demand is small relative to the world. The U.S. uses only 6.6% of the world’s coal, so coal consumption trends outside the U.S. are even more important.

The news on that front isn’t nearly as positive.

Coal consumption is still high and growing in many developing countries, particularly in Asia. This is due to the relative cheapness and abundance of coal, as well as the rapid industrialization of these countries.

China, for example, consumes 55% of the world’s coal, and that consumption continues to rise. As a whole, the Asia Pacific region is responsible for 81% of the world’s coal consumption, as well as the vast majority of the world’s ongoing carbon dioxide emissions.

China’s coal demand has increased for six straight years, setting new record highs in 2021 and 2022. Current heat waves in China have created a soaring demand for electricity, leading to unprecedented amounts of coal consumption at China’s more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants. As a result, China is on track to set a new record high for coal consumption in 2023.

This trend is set to continue. Last year the Chinese government approved a record-breaking 86 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity. This raises significant doubts about whether China can meet its emissions goals by 2030.

Although China is the single biggest coal consumer, trends in developed countries have reversed since 2020. Prior to 2020, developed countries, especially in Europe and North America, were significantly reducing their coal consumption.

But demand rebounded in the U.S. in 2021, and in the EU in 2021 and 2022. That trend has continued into 2023. The primarily culprit has been the energy crisis in Europe, with led several European countries to delay coal plant phase-outs and increase coal burning as an emergency measure to compensate for reduced Russian natural gas supplies.

Coal companies in the U.S., which had been battered for years, surged as coal demand bounced back. Peabody Energy, which hit a low of $1.05 per share in November 2020, is now around $22 a share. Arch Resources saw its profits jump 12-fold from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022, and its share price quadrupled in response. Consol Energy saw its share price go from $4 in 202o to nearly $70 today.

Thus, the market is being incentivized to continue producing coal, because despite the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, coal consumption continues to grow.

With China consuming the lion’s share of coal, and with the Chinese government continuing to approve new coal-fired power plants, it is hard to be optimistic about the prospects for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions anytime soon. I will discuss the latest trends in greenhouse gas emissions in the next article.

In conclusion, while the challenges of reducing global coal consumption are significant, they may soon be overshadowed by the even greater challenges of curbing global oil consumption. There are viable alternatives for replacing coal, but the task of replacing oil is far more daunting because there are fewer economic alternatives. The decisions we make will ultimately be driven by the signals of change, but those signals are currently predominated by price and availability.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/31/2023 – 03:30

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These Are Africa’s Most Powerful Passports

These Are Africa’s Most Powerful Passports

Seychelles has the most powerful passport in Africa, followed by Mauritius and South Africa.

The 2023 Henley Passport Index published in July, ranks passports based on the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following infographic, citizens from Seychelles can travel to 155 destinations without a visa organized beforehand.

Infographic: Africa's Most Powerful Passports | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

On a global comparison, the country ranks 24th, joint with St. Kitts and Nevis in the Caribbean.

Mauritius ranks 29th globally and has access to 148 countries without a prior visa, while South Africa ranks 52nd with access to 106 countries.

Rounding off the top ten are Malawi with access to 75 destinations and Tanzania with 73.

Worldwide, Singapore has been named as having the strongest passport, giving its citizens access to 192 countries visa-free.

Of the countries analyzed, Afghanistan ranks in last place with its citizens permitted to enter just 27 destinations without a prior visa.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/31/2023 – 02:45

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EU Advisory Committee Details Plan To Exclude Hungary From EU Presidency

EU Advisory Committee Details Plan To Exclude Hungary From EU Presidency

Via Remix News,

The committee cited Hungary’s “democratic deficit” as its primary reason for trying to block the presidency…

An independent advisory body to the European Union is drawing up a detailed plan on how to prevent Hungary from assuming the presidency of the European Union scheduled for the second half of 2024, daily Magyar Nemzet reports.

The Netherlands-based Meijers Committee, a body consisting of legal professionals that advises the European Union on assessing legislative proposals, has put together a series of recommendations, based on which the European Parliament could prevent a member state from assuming the rotating presidency.

The group of experts presented three different scenarios at the joint committee meeting of the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs (LIBE), and the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO), in which they outlined the possibilities of taking away or limiting the rotating presidency.

As the presidency program is jointly drawn up by the three countries succeeding each other at the head of the European Council – in this case, the incoming presidencies of Spain, Belgium and Hungary – the Meijers Committee’s first proposal was that the three member states should agree on which country chairs which meetings, especially where rule-of-law issues are discussed. This proposal would effectively limit the Hungarian presidency, as it is undergoing rule-of-law proceedings.

Experts have also suggested changing the order of the rotating presidencies. It is worth noting that this has been done several times before, but never against the will of the country concerned as a political sanction.

The third proposal is for the European Parliament to adopt a resolution setting out the conditions under which a member state may be excluded from holding the presidency.

At a Hungarian press conference on Thursday, held after the weekly cabinet meeting, Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyás said that “there is no realistic chance that the Hungarian EU Presidency will not take place.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/31/2023 – 02:00

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Should America Dominate The World?

Should America Dominate The World?

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

Forty years ago, during the final decade of the Cold War, nobody had any illusions about America being perfect. Without wallowing in the topic, we all knew our nation had ongoing social and economic problems, and that our history was filled with examples of oppression. But for most Americans, understanding the grim reality of life for people living in the Soviet Union provided clarity. It was understood that no country is perfect, and compared to the USSR, living in America was paradise.

The argument that America, by a wide margin, is the lesser of two evils, does not get the traction today that it got during the Cold War. But there is no justification for its diminished relevance. Despite alarming new challenges to the rights and freedoms of American citizens, the gap between America and its contemporary rivals, Russia and China, is as wide as it’s ever been. And in the case of China, the magnitude of the threat they now pose to American global leadership is far more than anything the USSR could have once posed.

These considerations give rise to a pair of sobering questions:

First, is China an expansionist nation, committed to growing powerful enough to dominate the world and impose its vision of human rights onto all of humanity?

Second, before we level well deserved criticisms on American foreign and domestic policies, shouldn’t we compare these policies to those practiced by the Chinese government?

Forty years ago, those questions mattered. Today, we need to revisit these questions.

Does China Intend to Dominate the World?

China is committed to an expansionist strategy. In just the last century, an era during which Western powers were relinquishing their claims to foreign colonies, China has annexed Inner Mongolia, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The Chinese have absorbed Hong Kong, cracking down on human rights they had pledged to uphold. They have lopped off chunks of Indian Kashmir as well as the northern portion of Indian state of Assam. The Chinese openly declare their intention to absorb the independent nation of Taiwan. They’re even claiming virtually all of the South China Sea, in defiance of every other bordering nation.

China’s expansionist tensions with neighboring nations and Borg like assimilation of the occupied nations within its borders should provide clues to how it treats all its citizens. China’s population is more than 90 percent comprised of the Han ethnic group, and they are probably the most surveilled, micromanaged population on earth. Any dissent that deviates from the collective is immediately suppressed.

One may go on endlessly about allegedly parallel encroachments on the rights of Americans to express dissent, but it isn’t remotely comparable to what Chinese people go through. The regime of Xi Jinping has turned China into the world’s biggest prison camp, with nearly 1.4 billion inmates. Law enforcement extends well beyond criminal behavior to “social behavior,” where not just what you do, but what you say, what you think, and how you worship are all strictly regulated.

China’s economic aggression is well documented and points to an unavoidable conclusion; nations that do business with China are going to be systematically robbed of their technological edge and their financial stability. According to Fortune, one in five corporations say China has stolen their intellectual property in the past year. Estimates of how much this costs the U.S. economy range as high as $600 billion per year.

China’s economic war with the United States has been unrelenting. Over the past 25 years the cumulative U.S. trade deficit with China is nearly $6 trillion. China retains some of its trade surplus with the U.S. in the form of debt, currently an estimated $1.6 trillion.

Another way China is expanding its economic reach and influence in the world is through the “Belt and Road Initiative,” a modern version of the ancient Silk Road connecting East to West. In theory this is a laudable series of infrastructure projects linking China with trading partners across Asia, Europe, Africa and beyond with a series of highways, railroads, and modernized seaports. But participating nations are realizing that Chinese investment carries a high price.

The way China intends to control the railroads and seaports being built across this new Silk Road is by using the so-called debt trap. This is a practice whereby China lends billions of dollars to an economically weaker country for them to construct infrastructure. Chinese firms then pour in materials and labor to build the project, which means the Chinese loan funds are repatriated right back into Chinese hands. Then when the debtor nation can’t afford to pay back the loan, the Chinese seize ownership of the project as collateral.

An article published by the Washington Post provides an extensive list of nations already victimized by China’s infrastructure debt trap. They include Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Montenegro, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. Some of these projects involve debt nearly equal to the entire GDP of the host nations. In many cases, Chinese-only gated communities are constructed, sometimes entire cities, swarming with Chinese security forces.

China’s economic imperialism is also reflected in its global buying binge. Using the savings generated from their huge trade surplus, China is buying companies and real estate all over the world. The United States is one of the only nations in the world that allows foreign companies to purchase controlling interests in U.S. companies, and China has taken full advantage of that. Michele Nash-Hoff, writing for Industry Week, posed this question: “Did we let the USSR buy our companies during the Cold War? No, we didn’t! We realized that we would be helping our enemy. This was pretty simple, common sense, but we don’t seem to have this same common sense when dealing with China.”

American Globalism – The Alternative to China

The evidence that China is an expansionist nation is overwhelming. In addition to China’s territorial aggression and predatory economic policies, there are the precedents of history. Throughout recorded history, expansionist empires have risen and fallen. Across all continents and through the millennia, regardless of geography or ethnicity, empires have fought wars of conquest. Today is no different. America will rise to the challenge of China, or China will dominate the world. And this gives rise to the second question: How do America’s foreign and domestic policies compare to China’s, and how can they be better calibrated to unite Americans and set an attractive example for people in the rest of the world?

Only in this context can the American government’s current cultural priorities and globalist ambitions be fairly evaluated. Most American conservatives will agree that a month-long display of gay pride flags in front of every government building in America and every embassy America has in foreign nations, is pushing the woke narrative to ridiculous extremes. But compared to what? Compared to the Iranian regime hanging homosexuals from construction cranes? The Ugandans making homosexual acts subject to the death penalty?

Conservative Americans have ample reason to criticize the way establishment institutions, certainly including the federal government, have pandered to the extremist wing of the LGBTQ+ lobby. That the cultural pendulum will swing back to some more universally tolerable position is quite likely, and soon would be better. But which is worse? Nations where homosexuals are executed, or nations where activist gender extremists are overly indulged?

America’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, meeting with Chinese diplomats in Alaska two years ago, was criticized for acknowledging American imperfections, saying “we have the humility to know that we are a country eternally striving to become a more perfect union.”

Blinken, and his boss, Joe Biden, may be leading America down a perilous path. But Blinken was right to acknowledge that America is “eternally striving to become a more perfect union.” The debates we are having in America over identity and equity may be tedious and threatening, and with good reason, but it’s a process at work in American society today that is unthinkable in China. America’s rival in the world is a fascist police state. For all of its flaws, and for all of its dangerous drift into decadence, America is a better place to live than China. The existential importance of that fact should not be lost on anyone, whether they are woke malcontents or appalled conservatives.

Moving towards a more perfect union will not be easy. Restoring colorblind meritocracy and reestablishing reasonable gender norms will take time, but is probably inevitable. The woke have simply gone too far. An even greater threat to a desirable Pax Americana, however, concerns how America’s establishment is responding to the “climate crisis.” Current policies, designed to stifle development of hydroelectric, nuclear, and natural gas sources of energy, are guaranteed to weaken America and alienate the world. They will impose a tyranny of surveillance and rationing in developed nations, and they will cause chaos, poverty, and endless war in developing nations. They are outrageous and will drive nonaligned nations into alliances with China.

It may be that the greatest test of American democracy in the 21st century will be whether or not the cabal of oligarchs that have hijacked America’s energy policy can be overcome by a media that has finally come to its senses and a population that awakens from its brainwashed stupor. Without adequate supplies of energy, civilization will falter and individual freedom will die. Claiming that adequate energy can be delivered worldwide exclusively via wind and solar power, without also relying on hydro, nuclear, and natural gas is a blatant, misanthropic, opportunistic lie. This lie, unchallenged, will fatally undermine the credibility of American leadership in the world.

Answering the question “should America dominate the world” requires recognition of an immutable prerequisite: If America does not, someone else will. And for all of its many flaws, some of them horrifically and even murderously misguided, when compared to empires of the past and rivals in the present, America’s empire is remarkably benevolent. That fact used to matter, and it still does. We would do well to embrace it, even as we work towards something better.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 07/30/2023 – 23:30

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China Leads The Way In Electrifying The Road

China Leads The Way In Electrifying The Road

Over the last ten years, China has become the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) forerunner, increasing its annual sales of fully-electric cars from roughly 10,000 in 2012 to 4.4 million in 2022.

As Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, based on data from the Global EV Data Explorer maintained by the International Energy Agency, three out of the five countries with the most BEVs sold last year have been part of the top 5 ever since e-mobility turned from a marketing buzzword to a tangible effort towards reducing CO2 production in transport.

Infographic: China Leads the Way in Electrifying the Road | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Apart from China, which jumped from third place in terms of BEV sales in 2012 to the uncontested number one spot in 2017, the United States and France have also been at the forefront of electrifying their passenger car fleets.

Since 2017, Germany has also become a serious contender in this area, registering around half a million new fully-electric cars in 2022.

When it comes to growth, China again can’t be beaten, increasing its annual sales by 44,000 percent from 2012 to 2022.

This drive towards electric mobility coincides with the People’s Republic’s efforts in the energy sector.

The country is expected to reach its goals in energy production via wind and solar five years earlier than planned and will produce 1,200 gigawatts through the aforementioned renewables by 2025 according to media reports. Renewable energy made up 45 percent of China’s total energy capacity in 2022, up from 26 percent in 2011.

With a buzzworthy topic like e-mobility, it helps to put the numbers in perspective though.

Last year, total sales of passenger cars in China amounted to 23.6 million, which means only about 19 percent of new cars were BEVs. However, the second biggest market for BEVs fares far worse.

In the U.S., 13.8 million light vehicles, which include the most popular segment for U.S. car buyers, light trucks, were sold, of which 800,000 or roughly six percent were BEVs.

Germany, the United Kingdom and France, on the other hand, are hot on the heels of the People’s Republic with BEVs market shares in new cars sold ranging from 13 to 18 percent.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 07/30/2023 – 23:00

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