China Is No Economic Model for America


The Chinese flag | Illustration: Lex Villena; Maciek905

China’s economy is struggling post-COVID-19. Growth is slower than expected, demographic trends are negative, youth unemployment is high, overbuilding has created a housing crisis, and government indebtedness is ballooning. These are only a few of the symptoms ailing the country, and things could get worse. Did any of the Americans who not long ago wanted to implement some of China’s top-down economic policies see this coming? Of course not. We’ve seen these pessimists make similar mistakes before.

Indeed, much of the economic narrative of the late 20th century was consumed by Japan’s meteoric rise. Just a few decades ago, many in academic and policymaking spheres made similar predictions about how Japan’s postwar resurgence portended U.S. demise. Many also advocated replacing our free market policies with the heavy-handed economic interventions that they were confident formed the secret sauce of Japan’s fast growth: industrial policy.

We should always be suspicious of single-factor explanations of an extremely complex phenomenon like economic growth. Japan’s once-famed Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), the agency in charge of its industrial policy, was only one of millions of decision makers large and small that were operating, producing, and investing in Japan. While MITI was indeed involved in various aspects of the Japanese economy, with a major focus on strengthening the country’s industrial base and increasing its exports, the narrative that it masterminded Japan’s growth was grossly overstated.

Indeed, a far more significant contributor to Japan’s economic success was overall economic freedom between the 1950s and 1970s. Texas Tech economist Benjamin Powell notes that in 1970, Japan was the seventh-freest economy in the world.

Reduced cronyism due to the postwar breakup of special interests, a lack of antitrust restrictions on joint research and development, and the freedom of banks to own stock are examples of circumstances that cleared the way for Japan’s impressive postwar growth. This growth was further assisted by both the Japanese cultural propensity to save and by pro-saving tax policies.

Japan’s overall environment of low and declining taxes and economic freedom between the 1950s and 1970s, along with high Japanese savings, fueled a legitimate boom in private sector investment. The Hoover Institution’s David Henderson reports that gross private investment grew from roughly 17 percent of Japan’s gross national product in the early 1950s to 30 percent in the early 1970s. These numbers dwarf the size of any government investments in the economy during that period.

What’s more, some of the most significant Japanese success stories emerged from sectors that were not the primary focus of MITI. Not the least of these is the automobile industry. Companies like Toyota and Honda rose to global prominence by refining their production processes, exemplified by the famed Toyota Production System. These innovations were driven by the companies themselves, not by directives from MITI.

In fact, MITI once attempted to consolidate the Japanese auto industry, believing that the result would be more efficient production. Fortunately, industry leaders resisted. Had they not done so, we might never have seen the global rise of brands like Honda. And luckily for Japan, MITI tried but failed to stop Sony from buying the manufacturing rights from Western Electric to develop the transistor radio. The rest is history.

Although some MITI-championed industries are profitable today, this is not evidence that they wouldn’t have been profitable without the original government investment. Similarly, the Japanese government’s push to reallocate resources away from an inefficient agricultural sector into manufacturing may have played some role in the country’s economic growth, but there’s a limit to what policies like these can achieve.

As the country transformed its economy into an export factory, it failed to shift to more of an innovation-based economy in large part due to government-erected barriers, leaving average citizens with little to show for the “success” of subsidizing the production of lots of stuff for foreigners to consume.

Japan’s government eventually tried to mask this resulting impoverishment with tighter import restrictions, more government spending, and easier money. But to no avail, as evidenced by a painful economic slowdown. As the country entered the 1990s—what is now known as its “lost decade”—it also became known as an example of government mismanagement.

Something similar is happening now in China, only on steroids. Japan didn’t have an authoritarian communist government to make big problems even bigger. The only question that remains to be answered is this: Why do we Americans always seem to believe those who tell us that industrial policy is a surer path to prosperity than economic freedom?

COPYRIGHT 2023 CREATORS.COM.

The post China Is No Economic Model for America appeared first on Reason.com.

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Texas Law Mandating Age Verification for Sexually Themed Sites Violates First Amendment,

Some excerpts from today’s long decision in Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Colmenero, decided by Judge David Alan Ezra (W.D. Tex.):

This case concerns a law passed by the State of Texas that restricts access to pornographic websites by requiring digital age verification methods … about the alleged harms caused by pornography….

H.B. 1181 is set to take effect on September 1, 2023. H.B. 1181 contains two requirements, both of which are challenged in this litigation. First, the law requires websites to use “reasonable age verification methods … to verify that an individual attempting to access the material is 18 years of age or older.” Second, the law requires adult content websites to post a warning about the purported harmful effects of pornography and a national helpline for people with mental health disorders.

The law defines “sexual material harmful to minors” as including any material that “(A) the average person applying contemporary community standards would find, taking the material as a whole is and designed to appeal or pander to the prurient interest” to minors, (B) is patently offensive to minors, and (C) “taken as a whole, lacks serious literary, artistic, political, or scientific value for minors.”

The law regulates a “commercial entity that knowingly and intentionally publishes or distributes material on an Internet website, including a social media platform, more than one-third of which is sexual material harmful to minors.” H.B. 1181 requires these companies to “comply with a commercial age verification system that verifies age using: (A) government-issued identification; or (B) a commercially reasonable method that relies on public or private transactional data to verify the age of an individual.” “Transactional data” refers to a “sequence of information that documents an exchange … used for the purpose of satisfying a request or event. The term includes records from mortgage, education, and employment entities.” H.B. 1181 does not allow the companies or third-party verifiers to “retain any identifying information of the individual.”

The court concluded that the age verification requirement was unconstitutional for various reasons, including that Ashcroft v. ACLU (II) (2004) and follow-on circuit court decisions struck down a similar federal law (COPA, the Child Online Protection Act). An excerpt that I thought was particularly closely connected to those precedents (though the court also made other arguments as well):

To endure strict scrutiny, a statute must employ the least restrictive means of protecting minors. The government bears the burden to show that less restrictive means would not be as effective…. [T]he Court … finds that the age verification enforcement mechanism is overly restrictive….

As the district court found [in the COPA case], and the Supreme Court affirmed, “Blocking and filtering software is an alternative that is less restrictive than COPA, and, in addition, likely more effective as a means of restricting children’s access to materials harmful to them.” The Court elaborated that filtering software is less restrictive because “adults without children may gain access to speech they have a right to see without having to identify themselves or provide their credit card information. Even adults with children may obtain access to the same speech on the same terms simply by turning off the filter on their home computers.”

Defendant argues that Ashcroft v. ACLU‘s analysis no longer applies because it was based on the evidentiary record made by the district court in 1999, which is not applicable to the instant case and of limited relevance to modern internet usage. As Defendant argues, H.B. 1181 uses more secure information, requires companies to delete their data, and is designed for convenience and privacy protection. The Court does not dispute that online interactions have changed since the Supreme Court’s decisions in 1997 and 2004. But as determined by the facts on the record and presented at the hearing, age verification laws remain overly restrictive. Despite changes to the internet in the last two decades, the Court comes to the same conclusion regarding the efficacy and intrusiveness of age verification as the ACLU courts did in the early 2000s.

First, the restriction is constitutionally problematic because it deters adults’ access to legal sexually explicit material, far beyond the interest of protecting minors. The Third Circuit’s holding regarding COPA applies equally to H.B. 1181:

“[The law] will likely deter many adults from accessing restricted content because they are unwilling to provide identification information in order to gain access to content, especially where the information they wish to access is sensitive or controversial. People may fear to transmit their personal information, and may also fear that their personal, identifying information will be collected and stored in the records of various Web sites or providers of adult identification numbers.”

Indeed, as the Third Circuit noted, the “Supreme Court has disapproved of content-based restrictions that require recipients to identify themselves affirmatively before being granted access to disfavored speech ” The same is true here—adults must affirmatively identify themselves before accessing controversial material, chilling them from accessing that speech. Whatever changes have been made to the internet since 2004, these privacy concerns have not gone away, and indeed have amplified.

Privacy is an especially important concern under H.B. 1181, because the government is not required to delete data regarding access, and one of the two permissible mechanisms of age-verification is through government ID. People will be particularly concerned about accessing controversial speech when the state government can log and track that access. By verifying information through government identification, the law will allow the government to peer into the most intimate and personal aspects of people’s lives. It runs the risk that the state can monitor when an adult views sexually explicit materials and what kind of websites they visit. In effect, the law risks forcing individuals to divulge specific details of their sexuality to the state government to gain access to certain speech. Such restrictions have a substantial chilling effect.

The deterrence is particularly acute because access to sexual material can reveal intimate desires and preferences. No more than two decades ago, Texas sought to criminalize two men seeking to have sex in the privacy of a bedroom. To this date, Texas has not repealed its law criminalizing sodomy. Given Texas’s ongoing criminalization of homosexual intercourse, it is apparent that people who wish to view homosexual material will be profoundly chilled from doing so if they must first affirmatively identify themselves to the state.

Defendant contests this, arguing that the chilling effect will be limited by age verification’s ease and deletion of information. This argument, however, assumes that consumers will (1) know that their data is required to be deleted and (2) trust that companies will actually delete it. Both premises are dubious, and so the speech will be chilled whether or not the deletion occurs. In short, it is the deterrence that creates the injury, not the actual retention. Moreover, while the commercial entities (e.g., Plaintiffs) are required to delete the data, that is not true for the data in transmission. In short, any intermediary between the commercial websites and the third-party verifiers will not be required to delete the identifying data.

Even beyond the capacity for state monitoring, the First Amendment injury is exacerbated by the risk of inadvertent disclosures, leaks, or hacks. Indeed, the State of Louisiana passed a highly similar bill to H.B. 1181 shortly before a vendor for its Office of Motor Vehicles was breached by a cyberattack. In a related challenge to a similar law, Louisiana argues that age-verification users were not identified, but this misses the point. The First Amendment injury does not just occur if the Texas or Louisiana DMV (or a third-party site) is breached. Rather, the injury occurs because individuals know the information is at risk. Private information, including online sexual activity, can be particularly valuable because users may be more willing to pay to keep that information private, compared to other identifying information. Kim Zetter, Hackers Finally Post Stolen Ashley Madison Data, Wired, Aug. 18, 2015, https://ift.tt/Z28Dk5q (discussing Ashley Madison data breach and hackers’ threat to “release all customer records, including profiles with all the customers’ secret sexual fantasies and matching credit card transactions, real names and addresses.”).

It is the threat of a leak that causes the First Amendment injury, regardless of whether a leak ends up occurring….

Plaintiffs offer several alternatives that would target minor[s’] access to pornography with fewer burdens on adults’ access to protected sexually explicit materials. First, the government could use internet service providers, or ISPs, to block adult content until the adults opt-out of the block. This prevents the repeated submission of identifying information to a third party, and operating at a higher level, would not need to reveal the specific websites visited. If implemented on a device-level, sexual information would be allowed for adults’ devices but not for children when connected to home internet.

In addition, Plaintiffs propose adult controls on children’s devices, many of which already exist and can be readily set up. This “content filtering” is effectively the modern version of “blocking and filtering software” that the Supreme Court proposed as a viable alternative in Ashcroft v. ACLU. Blocking and filtering software is less restrictive because adults may access information without having to identify themselves. And the Court agreed with the finding that “filters are more effective than age-verification requirements.” …

Content-filtering also helps address the under-inclusivity issue. At the hearing, Defendant argued that if H.B. 1181 covered more websites, such as search engines, then Plaintiffs would instead argue that it is overbroad. The point is well-taken, but it misses a crucial aspect: the law would be overbroad because age verification is a broad method of enforcement. Under H.B. 1181, age verification works by requiring a user’s age at a website’s landing page. This forces Texas (and other states) to choose some broad threshold (e.g., one-third) for what percentage of a website must be sexual before requiring age verification. But this is not true for content filtering, which applies to the material on a webpage, not just the site as a whole. So users can browse Reddit, but will be screened from the sexual material within the site by the content filter. Similarly, a user can search Google, but not encounter pornographic images. This is the definition of tailoring: content filtering, as opposed to age verification, can more precisely screen out sexual content for minors without limiting access to other speech.

Content filtering is especially tailored because parents can choose the level of access. In other words, parents with an 8-year-old can filter out content inappropriate for an 8-year-old, while parents with a 17-year-old can filter out content inappropriate for a 17-year-old. Using age verification, a 17-year-old will be denied access to material simply because it might be inappropriate for a young minor. Content filtering, by contrast, allows for much more precise restrictions within age groups.

In general, content filtering also comports with the notion that parents, not the government, should make key decisions on how to raise their children. See United States v. Playboy Ent. Grp., Inc. (2000) (“A court should not assume a plausible, less restrictive alternative would be ineffective; and a court should not presume parents, given full information, will fail to act.”). Likewise, even as it upheld obscenity laws [including bans on distributing harmful-to-minors material to minors in face-to-face transactions -EV], Ginsberg v. N.Y. (1968) affirmed that “constitutional interpretation has consistently recognized that the parents’ claim to authority in their own household to direct the rearing of their children is basic in the structure of our society.”

Content filtering allows parents to determine the level of access that their children should have, and it encourages those parents to have discussions with their children regarding safe online browsing. As the Principi article notes, it is this combination that is most effective for preventing unwanted exposure to online pornography. Age verification, by contrast, places little to no control in the hands of parents and caretakers. Thus, content filtering keeps the “parents’ claim to authority in their own household to direct the rearing of their children ” …

Again, changes to the internet since 2003 have made age verification more—not less—cumbersome than alternatives. Parental controls are commonplace on devices. They require little effort to set up and are far less restrictive because they do not target adults’ devices.

Moreover, content filtering is likely to be more effective because it will place a more comprehensive ban on pornography compared to geography-based age restrictions, which can be circumvented through a virtual private network (“VPN”) or a browser using Tor. Adult controls, by contrast, typically prevent VPNs (or Tor-capable browsers) from being installed on devices in the first place….

In addition, content filtering blocks out pornography from foreign websites, while age verification is only effective as far as the state’s jurisdiction can reach. This is particularly troublesome for Texas because, based on the parties here alone, foreign websites constitute some of the largest online pornographic websites

globally. If they are not subject to personal jurisdiction in the state, they will have no legal obligation to comply with the H.B. 1181. Age verification is thus limited to Texas’s jurisdictional reach. Content filtering, by contrast, works at the device level and does not depend on any material’s country of origin.

Defendant disputes the effects of content filtering and argues that it is only as effective as the caretakers’ ability to implement it. But even as Defendant’s technical expert noted at the hearing, content filtering is designed for parents and caretakers to be easy to use in a family. The technical knowledge required to implement content-filtering is quite basic, and usually requires only a few steps. And the legislature made no findings regarding difficulty of use when it passed the law.

At the hearing, Defendant’s expert repeatedly emphasized that parents often fail to implement parental controls on minors’ devices. But Defendant has not pointed to any measures Texas has taken to educate parents about content filtering. And more problematically, the argument disregards the steps Texas could take to ensure content filtering’s use, including incentives for its use or civil penalties for parents or caretakers who refuse to implement the tool. Indeed, draft bills of H.B. 1181 included such a measure, but it was abandoned without discussion. In Ashcroft v. ACLU, the Supreme Court gave this precise argument “little weight,” noting that the government has ample means of encouraging content filtering’s use. In short, Texas cannot show that content filtering would be ineffective when it has detailed no efforts to promote its use.

There’s also an interesting discussion of the disclaimer requirements (which were struck down as unconstitutional speech compulsions) and the First Amendment rights of foreign sites distributing material in the U.S., but I hope to include those in separate posts.

Plaintiffs are represented by Scott L. Cole, Michael T. Zeller, Derek L. Shaffer, Thomas Nolan, and Arian Koochesfahani (Quinn Emmanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP) and Jeffrey Keith Sandman (Webb Daniel Friedlander LLP).

The post Texas Law Mandating Age Verification for Sexually Themed Sites Violates First Amendment, appeared first on Reason.com.

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Ramaswamy: Today’s Politicians Are “Hollowed Out Husks Serving As Puppets” To The Globalist Machine

Ramaswamy: Today’s Politicians Are “Hollowed Out Husks Serving As Puppets” To The Globalist Machine

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy spoke in length recently about his opinions on the deep state and how he would go about opposing it, calling U.S. politicians “puppets” and “hollowed out husks” serving a ‘globalist machine‘.

During the podcast appearance with Shawn Ryan, Ramaswamy noted It’s a machine that we’re up against. If we think it is individual, person-to-person combat, like: ‘We found the bad guys of the globalist cabal, we got ’em smoking cigars in the back room,’ that is the wrong mental model. That’s how it worked in the old world.”

“What we have today going on in the U.S. is a modern 1775 moment,” he explained, adding “In the old world, there were a group of people who got together in the back of palace halls and determined what was right for the rest of society. The old world vision, and it is rearing its head again in this country today.”

Ramaswamy emphasized that the attitude of that vision is that “We The People can not be trusted to sort out our differences through free speech and open debate in a constitutional republic, on how we fight climate change or racial injustice. It has to be decided in the back of palace halls by an enlightened elite.”

“We fought a revolution to say hell no to that vision, that yes, We The People in this constitutional republic decide how we self-govern, thank you very much,” he continued.

“Now that old monster is rearing its head again, except now they say it is in the back of palace halls like a three-letter government building in Washington D.C. But you show up there and it isn’t quite right, there’s no smoking cigars,” Ramaswamy added.

“So you say, maybe it is the corner office of BlackRock in their C-suite on Park Avenue. It is woven into a machine of a horizontal managerial class composed of people in three-letter agencies in government, the people who professionally sit on corporate boards, the associate deans of god knows what universities, the ambassadors to some second-tier nation in Europe who was a donor to some political party, it is the same managerial class that makes it very hard to identify because it pervades multiple institutions both within and without of government. That’s what we’re up against,” Ramaswamy asserted.

“The real divide in the country is not between Republicans and Democrats… It is between the managerial class and the citizens,” he further urged.

Here is the full podcast:

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/31/2023 – 12:20

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“No Willful Ethics Transgression”: Clarence Thomas Releases Independent Legal Audit In New Financial Disclosure

“No Willful Ethics Transgression”: Clarence Thomas Releases Independent Legal Audit In New Financial Disclosure

An independent auditor has concluded that Justice Clarence Thomas had “no willful ethics transgression,” after left-wing activist group ProPublica and others alleged he violated ethics rules by accepting gifts from wealthy friends.

“After reviewing Justice Thomas’s records, I am confident there has been no willful ethics transgression, and any prior reporting errors were strictly inadvertent,” wrote attorney Elliot Berke.

Thomas, who applied for and was granted an extension on his 2022 financial disclosure, requested that Berke Farah LLP and accounting firm Flynn Abell Nixon LLC conduct an independent investigation to assist with his financial disclosure after the Judicial Conference of the United States issued new rules in March governing transparency, the Daily Caller reports.

In his filing, released on Thursday, Thomas disclosed three trips he accepted from billionaire Harlan Crow last year, but has denied any wrongdoing in accepting the trips – one of which was to the Adirondacks in New York, and two of which were to Dallas. For one of the trips, Thomas said he flew on a private jet due to security concerns due to the leak of the draft opinion on abortion.

Crow also bought three properties in Savannah, GA from Thomas and his family in 2014, which were first publicized by ProPublica.

Thomas has previously said he was advised that the trips fell under a personal hospitality exception and didn’t need to be reported.

Thursday’s disclosure indicates that the two Dallas trips were for Thomas to give keynote speeches at conferences held by the American Enterprise Institute.

In February 2022, he says he was reimbursed to fly private back from Dallas because of an “unexpected ice storm,” and that security concerns prompted the private flight to the second conference in May of last year.

“Because of the increased security risk following the Dobbs opinion leak, the May flights were by private plane for official travel as filer’s security detail recommended noncommercial travel whenever possible,” reads the new disclosure.

The extraordinary leak of the draft opinion that overturned Roe v. Wade rattled the court. Fences were installed around the Supreme Court building, and one man was arrested for attempting to murder fellow conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh. 

Thomas’s newly disclosed New York trip appears to be to Crow’s private lakeside resort, a location ProPublica reported Thomas has traveled to on multiple past occasions. Thomas listed Keese Mill, N.Y., as the location of the trip, which is the town where the resort is located.

Flights to and from Adirondacks by private plane and lodging, food, and entertainment at the Adirondacks property, were reportable under and in compliance with the new guidance,” Thomas’s disclosure states. –The Hill

On Thursday, Berke wrote: “Justice Thomas’s critics allege that he failed to report gifts from wealthy friends. Untrue,” adding “He has never accepted a gift from anyone with business before the Court. For anyone who knows him at all, it is clear that no one influences Justice Clarence Thomas’s jurisprudence. But friends are dear, close, and separate.”

No Justice, Justice Thomas included, should be subjected to such political blood sport,” Berke continued. “It is painfully obvious that these attacks are motivated by hatred for his judicial philosophy, not by any real belief in any ethical lapses. Several other Justices have been accused of ethics infractions of late as well, and while I do not represent them, I have seen no evidence to suggest their conduct was anything other than consistent with the rules in effect at the time the reports were filed, or due to inadvertent mistakes – as is the case with Justice Thomas.”

In March, the federal judiciary’s policymaking arm clarified its guidance that trips and stays at commercial properties are reportable on annual financial disclosure forms by justices and federal judges.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/31/2023 – 12:00

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6 Charts Reveal Freight Industry Is Bouncing Back

6 Charts Reveal Freight Industry Is Bouncing Back

By Craig Fuller of FreightWaves

Freight market conditions are improving. 

Let’s start with the FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI). This measures the percentage of truckloads that are turned down by trucking firms in the market. It’s an anonymized measurement of midsize to large truckload carriers’ willingness to accept the loads that are offered. OTRI is the best way to measure supply and demand.

Tender rejections are at 4%, which is the highest level in six months. 

The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) measures electronic offers from shippers to truckload carriers for the transport of goods.

OTVI has been increasing throughout the year; the big dips in the chart below are when holidays occurred. Over the past six months, volumes are up 12%.

For most of the year, tender rejections didn’t reflect these higher volumes. This indicated that there was too much capacity in the market — too many trucks chasing the available freight loads. 

However, that has changed in the past month. In the past 30 days, tender rejections are up 26%, while volumes are only up 1%. 

Capacity has been bleeding out of the market. Carriers large and small have been leaving the industry, meaning there are fewer trucks available to haul freight.

Trucking companies have different operating costs, but none of them can survive long on low rates. Throughout this year, truckload spot rates have hovered between $1.50 and as high as $2.10 a mile. Meanwhile, the average breakeven cost per mile for truckload ranges from $1.56 to $1.90 per mile, according to a recent J.P. Morgan study.

Combined with the low freight rates, trucking companies have been hurt by higher diesel prices.

What’s next? 

Assuming that higher volumes remain persistent and capacity continues to leave the market, higher freight rates are on the way.  

Shippers have enjoyed lower freight rates since the spring of 2022. However, rates are cyclical and shippers should play defense now by locking in contract rates or moving to index-linked freight contracts.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/31/2023 – 11:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/mxJZt4P Tyler Durden

Tucker Warns Of Trump Assassination, Hot War With Russia

Tucker Warns Of Trump Assassination, Hot War With Russia

Tucker Carlson says that if legal efforts to block Donald Trump from running for president again fails, the next steps could be assassination and a hot war with Russia to maintain power and unite the population.

“No one will say that but I don’t know how you can’t reach that conclusion. Do you know what I mean? They have decided, permanent Washington and both parties, have decided that there’s something about Trump that’s so threatening to them, they just can’t have it,” Carlson said on the Adam Carolla show.

“If you begin with criticism, then you go to protest, then you go to impeachment, now you go to indictment, and none of them work, what’s next? Graph it out, man. We are speeding towards assassination, obviously,” he continued.

Once you start indicting your political opponents, you know that you have to win or else they’re going to indict you if they win. So they can’t lose. They will do anything to win. So how do they do that? They’re not going to do Covid again, I know everyone on the right is afraid they’re going to do Covid and mask mandates — they can’t do that. They’re already been exposed. That won’t work,” he continued. “What are they going to do? They’re going to go to war with Russia is what they’re going to do. There will be a hot war between the United States and Russia in this next year.”

And what might precipitate WW3? According to Carlson, “I think we could Tonkin Gulf our way into it where all of a sudden missiles land in Poland and “the Russians did it” and we’re going to war. I could see that happening very easily.”

Carlson then urged the GOP-held Senate to rally behind de-escalation, particularly in Ukraine, arguing that the stakes have never been higher for avoiding an apocalyptic scenario.

Watch:

Carlson also opined on former president Barack Obama, who the former Fox News host says was smoking crack and having sex with men, but the media was too afraid to report it ahead of the 2008 presidential election.

Carlson was referring to repeated claims by a man named Larry Sinclair, who maintains that Obama bought and smoked cocaine before they had sex in 1999.

“A guy came forward, Larry Sinclair, and said “I’ll sign an affidavit” and he did, “I’ll do a lie detector” and he did,” said Carlson. “‘I smoked crack with Barack Obama and had sex with him”, that was obviously true.”

According to Tucker, nobody dared repeat the accusation due to threats from the Obama campaign.

“‘Nobody reported it not because they were squeamish about sex or drugs but because the Obama campaign said anyone who reports on this gets no access to the Obama campaign,” he said. “So, they didn’t report on it.”

“It’s not going to change the world that Barack Obama likes dudes, I think this was well-known,” Carlson continued, adding that Obama himself acknowledged his gay impulses in a letter to a former girlfriend.

Amazing…

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/31/2023 – 11:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/E5H3pAj Tyler Durden

If You Can’t Call Turning Points, Why Do You Have A Job In Finance?

If You Can’t Call Turning Points, Why Do You Have A Job In Finance?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

All of us, central banks included, are now “data dependent”. But the data – well, it depends!

  • We just got downside surprises in the US, but the Q3 Atlanta Fed GDP print is holding up for now, and the Dallas Fed services survey, in contrast to the manufacturing one, noted “price and wage pressures increased.” The core PCE deflator today is likely to stay well above 4.0% y-o-y.

  • The latest European PMIs were awful, but inflation today is likely to show core over 5% y-o-y, as is wage growth – productivity, not so much in all likelihood.

  • We saw a huge US crude drawdown despite apparent Q2 GDP slowdown; and Freight Waves say if, “higher volumes remain persistent and capacity continues to leave the market, higher freight rates are on the way.”

  • China’s PMIs today saw manufacturing beat expectations at 49.7 but services fall short at 51.0, as the PBOC takes further steps to try to encourage even more household and business borrowing.

Yes, predicting economic numbers is hard, and more so given data at key turning points are contradictory. But calling whether there is or isn’t going to be a turning point is what analysts and central banks are supposed to do, via a fundamental view that data then informs, and sometimes shifts. If you don’t do that, as Stefan Koopman asked yesterday, why do you have a job?

Trying to help just the right number of other folks lose theirs, the central bankers at Jackson Hole stressed their new fundamental view of global predictable unpredictability leading to higher inflation volatility. As predicted(!), however, many in markets who scour every central bank utterance for what they might do next month didn’t mention that their oracles now say they are without a long-term playbook or stars to guide them, and so ‘higher for longer’.

Regardless, in the past 24 hours we’ve seen:

  • Ukrainian drones blowing up Russian planes in Pskov;

  • the Panama Canal facing long-run access problems and higher transit fees;

  • a coup in oil- and cocoa-rich Gabon toppling another pro-France West African kleptocrat;

  • Israeli officials warning tensions with Hezbollah are at their highest since 2006, when war last broke out;

  • China publishing an official map claiming parts of India, escalating tensions there;

  • Republican presidential candidate Ramaswamy stating he would defend Taiwan until the US can make its own high-end semiconductors – then it’s on its own(!)

It’s impossible to predict what will happen on any of the above. But it’s easy to predict that unpredictability will remain, as will fat tail risks.

Likewise, US Commerce Secretary Raimondo, departing China “with some optimism,” publicly complained the country was “uninvestable” due to its “unpredictable” policy shifts. Yet those policy shifts were only unpredictable if one hadn’t read Marx, Lenin, Mao, or Xi, just financial media-ra-ra. Tellingly, Bloomberg Shuli Ren’s ‘Xi’s Live-to-Work Ideology Is So 1960s’ notes:

“China’s President Xi Jinping is not a big fan of social welfare. In past writings, he took pains to explain what “common prosperity,” one of his signature policies, was not: It was not egalitarianism or the rise of a welfare state. During the pandemic, when the US government wrote trillion-dollar checks to consumers, China went for trickle-down economics instead. The government’s stimulus came in the form of infrastructure spending and tax rebates to smaller businesses.

Xi has deep-rooted philosophical objections to Western-style consumption-driven growth, seeing it as wasteful and at odds with his goal of making China a world-leading industrial and technological powerhouse, reported The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with Beijing’s decision-making…

This live-to-work mentality is so prominent that even today, it dictates how China calculates its quarterly gross domestic product numbers. The country uses the so-called production-based account, which prioritizes the value-add of each industry and brushes aside end demand. This method also suits local officials well. They don’t need to worry much about what households are up to. They just have to incentivize factories instead. Seen in this light, Xi’s speeches and actions start to make sense.”

Was this unpredictable? Confucianism is about work-ethic over welfare; Marx decried bourgeois desires for a welfare state to keep workers quiet, and was a gold bug, not a free-flowing fiscal fiat fan; and Soviet economies were all about output.

Raimondo now says the US has no desire to decouple from China: it’s just that the US wants to sell more to China while buying less from it – and vice versa. Obviously, decoupling will therefore continue, as predicted in 2016’s ‘Thin Ice’ and 2017’s ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’.

However, some believe no decoupling is taking place. The Economist recently argued ‘Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working’ and ‘How America is failing to break up with China’, and the same meme is heard from those selling ‘Deflation’, ‘Deep rate cuts soon’, and ‘Buy all the things’.

Decoupling isn’t phoney’ by Noah Smith blows those arguments away. He notes that apart from cars, “What’s astonishing is that [decoupling] already seems to be happening, much faster than one might have naively predicted. China’s share of US imports, which already took a hit from Trump’s tariffs before rebounding somewhat in the pandemic, is now falling relentlessly.” Even if this is due to Chinese firms setting up plants in Mexico, India, or ASEAN, it still echoes what the US experienced since the 1980s. Moreover:

“To the extent that falling investment in China is due to corporate de-risking, it’s probably eventually going to spread all the way up the supply chain. If you’re a US company that moves production from China to Vietnam because of the risk of war, and your Vietnamese factory is importing most of its parts from China, you’ll know it. And you’ll know that you’re still exposed to China risk, and you’ll look around for alternative places for your Vietnamese factory to get its parts and components. That might take time – years even, given China’s dominance of manufacturing. But as long as the risk of conflict stays high for years, companies will keep looking for ways to build entire supply chains that never run through China. And they will succeed.”

And this is all happening without Raimondo offering policy support aside from the CHIPS Act and the IRA, which both show how explosive such state support can be when enacted. As Noah puts it:

“That means that so far, most of the decoupling that’s being done is being driven by the prudent decisions of private companies and investors – natural market forces, rather than the visible hand of government policy. There’s no reason to expect those forces to reverse themselves – even setting aside the threat of war, every nation has seen some manufacturing activity leave for cheaper countries once costs rise. And meanwhile, the engine of US government policy –and European government policy, etc.– is just revving up. Once policymakers figure out which policies actually speed decoupling without injuring the economy, you can expect them to double down on those. This is only the very beginning of the decoupling story.”

If you accept that this is predictable, you have to accept higher inflation is too on the import side, via fiscal deficits, extra capital spending, and labour market tightness (as President Biden ‘Moves to Give 3.6 Million Workers Overtime Pay’ (can you tell there’s an election soon?). It will probably be higher in terms of geopolitical tensions upstream of shifting global supply chains too.

Of course, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an economic downturn first while we fine-tune the policy of higher rates + acronyms (e.g., today’s news that ‘US Officials Weigh Pathway to Let More Firms Tap FHLB Backstop)’: we can, and very well may do soon.

Yet anyone knowing much about politics would tell you that outcome would be a good predictor for even stronger Western policy support for decoupling stimulus measures. The only questions would be when and how.

To conclude, apart from those chasing data they can’t predict in a vacuum, which accounts for far more funds than you might think, Jackson Hole said everything around us is predictably unpredictable; and yet at the same time it’s also unpredictably predictable.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/31/2023 – 11:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/pMoLPf9 Tyler Durden

Xi To Skip G20 Delhi Summit In Unprecedented Snub At India, Just After ‘Dominance’ At BRICS

Xi To Skip G20 Delhi Summit In Unprecedented Snub At India, Just After ‘Dominance’ At BRICS

On Thursday what will surely be a huge blow to India’s Modi and the much anticipated annual G20 summit hosted in New Delhi is being widely reported. 

For the first time, China’s President Xi Jinping will not attend the Group of 20 summit, Reuters and others are reporting based on multiple diplomatic sources. This is already being anticipated as a major setback for a summit beset by unity problems and is a deeply symbolic snub given Xi’s prominence at the BRICS summit in South Africa only last week.

Clearly, President Xi has downgraded the G20’s importance in favor of the BRICS+ format at a moment the ‘alternative to Western alignment’ bloc is set to double with the admission of six new members.

Source: BRICS/Anadolu, Getty Images

Crucially, Xi hasn’t missed an in-person G20 summit since he became president in 2013. FT has cited Zhang Baohui, professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, to point out that he “never missed a G20 meeting before because it’s a vital occasion for China to try to shape the global narrative.”

“G20 offers China that platform to outcompete the American messages,” Zhang added. Instead, Premier Li Qiang will represent China at the Indian capital where other heads of state will gather, including US President Joe Biden.

FT underscores that “Xi’s move to skip a gathering of G20 leaders for the first time comes after he dominated last week’s Brics summit, where he oversaw plans to expand the developing nations club that Beijing sees as a rival to US-led western groupings.”

Over 20 world leaders will convene for the G20, with Xi’s presence up until Thursday being so “assured” that Western headlines just within the last 48 hours were still reporting, “Biden, Xi, Erdogan among 25+ world leaders to be present at Delhi high table.”

Zhang noted that Qiang being there will simply not have the same impact, and highlights recent years of severe India-China disagreements, particularly over the long-running border dispute centering on Line of Actual Control (LAC) — the somewhat ill-defined buffer which stretches more than 3,500 kilometers from Ladakh in the northwest to Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast.

There have been sporadic serious incidents going back to the two countries’ deadliest encounter in modern times of June 2020. Rival military border patrols clashed in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh, leaving at least 24 people – mostly Indian soldiers – dead.

Beijing has already shown G20 leaders that it’s ready to throw around its significant diplomatic weight over border questions seen as vital to China’s sovereignty. For example, China has already boycotted a recent G20 preliminary meeting, in May:

China has said it will not attend the upcoming G20 tourism meeting scheduled to take place in the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir.

China and Pakistan have both condemned India for holding the event in the Muslim-majority Kashmir, a region that has been disputed between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Just ahead of the Thursday headlines saying that Xi is set to snub the G20 annual summit in Delhi, China strongly asserted itself on border issues once again, on Monday having released the 2023 edition of its standard national map.

The map shows a key disputed area of Kashmir as being under China’s control, specifically Aksai Chin and the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. This has outraged Indian diplomatic officials, who immediately lodged a “strong protest” with Beijing. And naturally, the map features Taiwan and the South China Sea as being Chinese territory. 

Multiple countries, also including the Philippines and Malaysia have rejected and publicly protested the new map’s release, denying Chinese suzerainty over the contested regions.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/31/2023 – 10:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/OXCF6Le Tyler Durden

Why We Can’t Have Nice Things: The ‘Chicken Tax’ That Makes Pickup Trucks More Expensive


chicken tax tariffs pickup trucks free trade podcast why we can't have nice things | Illustration: Lex Villena

The brief trade war between the U.S. and Europe in the early 1960s might seem hardly worth remembering—and it pales in comparison to the political and cultural upheaval that defined that decade.

But any American who has bought a pickup truck in the past 50 years has been collateral damage in that conflict—a conflict that started because European farmers were mad about American exports of frozen chicken.

The 25 percent retaliatory tariffs that President Lyndon B. Johnson set on imported light trucks have fenced off the American pickup truck market from foreign competitors for decades. As a result of the so-called chicken tax, consumers pay higher prices, and a handful of brands have become dominant in the marketplace. The other tariffs that were part of that long-ago trade war have been repealed. This one remains.

“There are a few people highly invested in keeping it around and no one really cares to get rid of it,” explains Jordan Golson, a freelance automotive journalist. When it comes to tariffs, he says, “It’s not easy to make one of these rules, but it’s a thousand times harder to get rid of one.”

On this week’s show, Golson also discusses the lengths that some foreign truck-makers have gone to in order to avoid those tariffs. That includes the story of the Subaru BRAT: a small pickup truck that was imported to America with seats installed in the truck bed—so it would be classified as a passenger vehicle rather than a cargo vehicle and, thus, exempt from the 25 percent import tax.

Daniel Griswold, an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, reminds us that the chicken tax has caused real economic harm in addition to those funny, creative attempts at tariff dodging.

“The U.S. government is artificially constricting competition in that market, and that means higher prices, it means less choice,” Griswold says.

Automobiles can be imported to the U.S. with tariffs of just 2.5 percent, and the result has been a far more robust market for consumers and greater foreign investment in making cars in the U.S.—something that hasn’t happened in the truck market due to the trade barriers.

The chicken tax has been “a losing proposition all around for Americans, consumers, and the American economy,” says Griswold. It’s also a great example of how tariffs can stifle, rather than protect, domestic markets.

 

Further reading for this week’s episode:

Cheap American Chicken Gave Us This Weird Subaru Pickup,” by Golson, Wired

Why Are Pickups So Expensive? Blame the Chicken Tax,” by Griswold, Cato Institute

How a Tax on Chicken Changed the Playing Field for U.S. Automakers,” by Sonari Glinton, NPR

 

Written by Eric Boehm; produced and edited by Hunt Beaty; mixing by Ian Keyser; fact checking by Katherine Sypher

The post <em>Why We Can't Have Nice Things</em>: The 'Chicken Tax' That Makes Pickup Trucks More Expensive appeared first on Reason.com.

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“Strangers on the Internet” Podcast Ep. 41: Aliza Shatzman on the Joshua Wright Allegations and Law School Culture


IMG_4961 | Aliza Shatzman

The 41st episode (Apple Podcasts link here and Spotify link here) of “Strangers on the Internet” features attorney and activist Aliza Shatzman.

In the third part of my coverage of the sexual misconduct allegations against ex-George Mason University law professor and former FTC Commissioner Joshua Wright (part 1 with Prof. Christa Laser is here and part 2 with Prof. Brandy Wagstaff is here), I speak with a victim of judicial harassment and retaliation who founded the Legal Accountability Project.

After graduating from the Washington University School of Law in 2019, Aliza began clerking for a judge in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia. After subjecting her to harassment and sex discrimination, the judge fired her and then went on to derail her legal career by providing false statements during her final reference check for a prestigious position as a federal prosecutor in such a manner that she lost the position.

Aliza and I discuss how little has changed in the twenty years between when I started law school–a time of shady “open secrets” at my own alma mater and in the judiciary–and today. We talk about the roots of the culture of silence and its reinforcement via tools such as defamation lawsuits, like potentially the one currently faced by two of Josh Wright’s alleged victims, and what true change and principled allyship look like.

Note: According to a statement printed in the media by Lindsay McKasson, counsel to Joshua Wright at Binall Law Group “all allegations of sexual misconduct are false,” “These false allegations are being made public after unsuccessfully demanding millions of dollars behind closed doors,” and “We look forward to total vindication in court.” According to a tweet by Prof. Christa Laser, “I don’t appreciate that his attorney falsely suggests we are all lying (1/2 was in writing!) & want $ (this is a lie–I only want him gone).”

(Aliza Shatzman)

The post "Strangers on the Internet" Podcast Ep. 41: Aliza Shatzman on the Joshua Wright Allegations and Law School Culture appeared first on Reason.com.

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