AMD Tumbles On Disappointing Revenue Guidance, Drags Chip Names Lower

AMD Tumbles On Disappointing Revenue Guidance, Drags Chip Names Lower

Ahead of Apple’s earnings later this week, and the all-important NVDA results next month, all eyes were on chip giant AMD for an advance look into what one may expect. The answer, as so often has been the case this earnings season, was one of two parts: the present situation… and the outlook.

Starting with the former, the results for the just concluded 3rd quarter were not bad, with the company beating on the top and bottom line, as follows:

  • Adjusted Q3 EPS $0.70, +4% y/y, and beating estimates of $0.68,
  • Revenue $5.80 billion, +4.2% y/y, and beating estimates of $5.7 billion and
    • Data center revenue $1.60 billion, -0.7% y/y, missing estimate $1.62 billion
    • Gaming revenue $1.51 billion, -7.7% y/y, missing estimate $1.53 billion
    • Client revenue $1.45 billion, +42% y/y, beating estimate $1.23 billion
    • Embedded revenue $1.24 billion, -4.6% y/y, missing estimate $1.31 billion
  • Adjusted gross margin 51% vs. 50% y/y, in line with estimate 51%
  • Adjusted operating income $1.28 billion, beating estimate $1.27 billion
  • Adjusted operating margin 22% vs. 23% y/y, beating estimate 21.6%
  • Capital expenditure $124 million, +0.8% y/y, beating estimate $114.1 million
  • R&D expenses $1.51 billion, beating estimates of $1.45 billion
  • Free cash flow $297 million, -65% y/y, missing estimates of $1.52 billion

Summarizing the results, stronger than expected Client Revenues, which surged 42% driven primarily by higher Ryzen mobile processor sales, offset revenue misses across all other segments, including Data Center, where revenue was $1.6 billion, down 1% year-over-year, as “growth in 4th Gen AMD EPYC CPU sales was offset by a decline in adaptive System-on-Chip (SoC) data center products.” 

But the biggest hit took place in Gaming, where revenue tumbled 8% YoY, “due to a decline in semi-custom revenue, partially offset by an increase in AMD Radeon GPU sales.”

But while the company’s just completed quarter was generally solid, it was the guidance that has spooked the market, with the company forecasting Q4 revenue to be approximately $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million (a range of $5.8BN to $6.4BN) which is well below the Wall Street consensus forecast of $6.4BN; The company also said that Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 51.5%, which was also below the consensus estimate of 52.1%, and also disappointed expectations.

Looking ahead, CFO Jean Hu said that in the fourth quarter, she expects to see strong growth in Data Center and continued momentum in Client, “partially offset by lower sales in the Gaming segment and additional softening of demand in the embedded markets.”

Ahead of the results, the option market was pricing in a 6.8% move after hours (down from 9.8% last quarter); and while it didn’t quite get that, bulls will certainly not be happy with the 5% drop due to poor guidance, which sent the stock down about 4$ from its closing price of $98, and erasing all of the day’s gains although in light of the disappointing guidance, the drop could have been far worse. The disappointing report hit both Intel and NVDA, which during regular hours managed to rebound above $400 after opening sharply lower ahead of its own earnings next week.

The good news is that unlike many of its peers, AMD remains well in the green for the full year, having started 2023 at $65 and trading about 50% higher.

The full Q3 slide deck is below (pdf link)

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/31/2023 – 16:48

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WeWork Craters 36% After Hours On WSJ Bankruptcy Report

WeWork Craters 36% After Hours On WSJ Bankruptcy Report

Less than 3 months after warning investors in its SEC filing that:

“Our losses and negative cash flows from operating activities raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.”

– WEWORK, SEC FILING, AUGUST 8TH, 2023.

…and after a series of increasingly dire warnings over the financial condition of WeWork – and skipped payments WeWork’s inevitable bankruptcy is imminent.

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal – which sent WeWork shares spiraling to the tune of 36% as of this writing – the failed workspace company, once valued at $47 billion, is planning to file Chapter 11 as early as next week.

Will we get another explosive squeeze this time, or are they done?

The company missed interest payments to bondholders on Oct. 2, which initiated a 30-day grace period. Failing to do so means default – however on Tuesday the company said it had struck an agreement with bondholders which would allow it another seven days to negotiate before a default is triggered.

“The forbearance agreement provides time to continue in the positive conversations with our key financial stakeholders and engage with them to implement our ongoing strategic efforts to enhance our capital structure,” a spokesperson told the Journal, pointing to an early Tuesday securities filing.

Things took a decided turn for the worse in August, when a management shakeup, followed by September comments from CEO David Tolley regarding the company’s lease commitments foreshadowed bad things to come.

In August, the company shook up its board after three directors resigned due to a material disagreement regarding board governance and the company’s strategic direction, according to a securities filing. WeWork appointed four new directors with expertise in large, complex financial restructurings. Those directors have been negotiating with WeWork’s creditors over the past several months about a restructuring plan as they prepare for the bankruptcy.

The flexible-workspace provider has been aiming to renegotiate leases with landlords after signaling that it has substantial doubt about its prospects for survival. Chief Executive David Tolley said during a September conference call with landlords that WeWork’s lease commitments must be “right-sized” to accommodate its operations in the current market because the office real-estate market has fundamentally changed. -WSJ

In early September, Tolley announced that the company would be renegotiating all leases, as well as a plan to cut all ‘underperforming’ offices.

WeWork had 777 locations across 39 countries as of June, which included 229 locations in the US. The company has an estimated $10 billion in lease obligations ranging from the second half of 2023 through the end of 2027, as well as an additional $15 billion that starts in 2028. 

The company incinerated $530 million in cash during the first six months of this year, and had around $205 million of cash on hand as of June.

Going forward, as we detailed previously, since WeWork doesn’t own any offices (it pays landlords), if the company can’t renegotiate leases or flat-out cancels, it would inflict pain on building owners. 

The ripple effect of a WeWork bankruptcy leaves 16.8 million square feet of office space at risk. We suspect building owners with heavy exposure to WeWork aren’t entirely pleased about its tenant being on the verge of bankruptcy. 

WeWork might be a ticking timebomb for office markets

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/31/2023 – 16:45

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WTI Holds Near 2-Month Lows AfterAPI Reports Small Crude Build, Product Draw

WTI Holds Near 2-Month Lows AfterAPI Reports Small Crude Build, Product Draw

Oil prices tumbled to 2 month lows as the war premium ebbed amid a (somewhat surprising) belief that the Israel-Hamas conflict will remain contained, bringing demand fears back amid higher rates and a slowing global economy.

Oil’s downward trajectory over the past few days “continues to point to market expectations of a localized conflict,” said Dan Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

A bank analysis of geopolitical risk events shows that the premium from a war “tends to fade as soon as one month following the onset of the conflict.”

On the Middle East front, oil traders have “likely shifted into efficient market mode, waiting for signs of a definitive escalation that imperils supply before taking prices higher,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in market commentary.

API

  • Crude +1.35mm (+500k exp)

  • Cushing +375k

  • Gasoline -357k (-500k exp)

  • Distillates -2.48mm (-1.9mm exp)

Crude inventories rose modestly more than expected and stocks at the Cushing Hub built, according to API. Products saw inventory draws…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $81.30 ahead of the API print, having erased all of the post-Israel gains and posting its first monthly loss in 5 months…

And was little changed after the print…

Signs of lackluster demand have arisen in recent days, with manufacturing in China falling back into contraction this month and BP saying gasoline and diesel markets are oversupplied.

The biggest worry surrounds Iranian oil flows, which could see up to 1 million barrels a day of crude knocked off the market if the U.S. were to more strictly enforce sanctions on the country’s exports, said Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity analysts at ING, in a note.

“In the absence of supply disruptions from the region, it is difficult to see a significant and sustained upside in prices,” the ING analysts said.

So far, however, the conflict hasn’t yet affected oil supply.

Still, as MarketWatch reports, the situation in the Middle East is fluid. Saudi Arabia’s military is on high alert after deadly clashes with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who attempted to fire a missile over Saudi Arabia toward Israel, Bloomberg reported late Monday citing people familiar with the matter.

Strategists at Macquarie wrote in a recent note that they remain bearish on oil, but “recognize upside risks associated with the Middle East conflict.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/31/2023 – 16:35

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Rockwell: Keep Us Out Of War!

Rockwell: Keep Us Out Of War!

Authored by Llewellyn Rockwell,

People have different opinions about the battle between Israel and Hamas, but one thing should be clear to all of us. America must stay out of the conflict and follow our traditional non-interventionist foreign policy, magnificently defended by Murray Rothbard and Dr. Ron Paul.

Steve Berger gets to the essential issue:

“[We need a] non-interventionist policy that doesn’t stir up hornets nests or in words of JQA [Jon Quincy Adams] doesn’t go abroad in search of monsters to destroy is not inconsistent with protecting our own borders or citizens. Economic law all about tradeoffs. Security sent abroad makes us more vulnerable to infiltration of terrorists here as you outlined dramatically in your recent podcast. Biden called all the arms etc. we are sending over there a dividend for our security. Maybe it’s just a dividend for our military corporate contractors as Smedley Butler would conclude.  I have no issue if a private citizen wishes to go over and help Israel just as I had no issue if someone wanted freely and with informed consent wished to take a covid shot. I don’t like being called an anti-vaxxer for protesting mandates or raising issues of efficacy or safety. I don’t like being called an antisemite for questioning  our foreign policy decisions or Israel’s even though I condemn the atrocities and murders for what they are.”

Brain dead-Biden and his gang of neocon controllers are taking precisely the wrong path.

They are shipping a massive amount of arms and money to this troubled region. If we don’t stop them, we could find ourselves in a three-front war.

This could lead to the thermonuclear annihilation of the world. Dr. Ron Paul warns us:

President Joe Biden announced last week that the United States would be funding – and possibly fighting – three wars in three different parts of the world at the same time. It is an ambitious foreign policy for a president who doesn’t even seem to be able to express a coherent thought without the help of a teleprompter.

Nearly every word of Biden’s speech was untrue, including the preposterous suggestion that “American leadership is what holds the world together. American alliances are what keep us, America, safe.”

US interventionism in Ukraine for over ten years and in the Middle East for decades has brought those two regions to the brink of an explosion unlike anything seen before. And if that is not enough, Biden’s neocons are also determined to take us to war with China over Taiwan. The world is literally falling apart in front of us as Biden claims we are the only thing holding it together!

After a brutal attack on Israel by Hamas earlier this month, Israel declared war not just on the terrorists who attacked its territory, but on the entire population of Gaza itself. Israel’s policy of collective punishment – razing Gaza to the ground – has inflamed Muslims from the Middle East to Asia to Western capitals. The anger rages more fiercely than we have seen in decades, perhaps since the founding of Israel in 1948.

Yet instead of trying to help facilitate a ceasefire and a peaceful solution, Biden has poured gasoline onto the fire, sending two US carrier groups and at least 15,000 troops, while threatening war on Lebanon, Iran, and Syria if they intervene in Israel’s war on the Palestinians. What might Russia do if the US attacks Russian forces in Syria or Russia’s allies in Tehran?

Biden also repeated the line that “Israel has the right to defend itself.” While that may be true, it is not Israel defending itself. It’s the US government intervening to defend Israel. And as the entire Muslim world rages against Israel over the destruction of Gaza, how do we think they will feel about us as the financiers and facilitators of that destruction?

By dragging the United States into this war, President Biden has planted the seeds of innumerable 9/11-style blowback attacks on the US. Yet he has the audacity to claim that all of this is keeping us safe.

Recent polls show that most Americans disagree with Biden. A CBS/YouGov poll taken last week shows that the majority of Americans oppose sending weapons to Israel. His Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen assured us that “we can afford” to finance two wars because the US economy is doing “exceptionally well.” Maybe the American people know something Yellen and the elites do not.

As Biden demands another $105 billion to fund the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan, his speech seemed to have a touch of campaign rhetoric in it. “I’m told I was the first American [president] to enter a warzone not controlled by the United States military since President Lincoln,” he said in his speech. The statement is blatantly false, but he must believe it gives him an air of bravado.

They say that it is advantageous to be seen as a “wartime president” when elections roll around, but Joe Biden may have miscalculated the level of support he will get for being a “World-War-Three-time president.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/31/2023 – 16:20

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The Best of Reason: Did Evolution Give Us Free Will?


The Best of Reason Magazine text on top of grid background | Joanna Andreasson

This week’s featured article is “Did Evolution Give Us Free Will?” by Ronald Bailey.

This audio was generated using AI trained on the voice of Katherine Mangu-Ward.

Music Credits: “Deep in Thought” by CTRL S and “Sunsettling” by Man with Roses

The post <i>The Best of Reason</i>: Did Evolution Give Us Free Will? appeared first on Reason.com.

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Interesting Standing Dispute in Fourteenth Amendment Section 3 Case Against Trump

From today’s decision in Castro v. Warner, by Judge Irene Berger (S.D. W. Va.):

The Plaintiff, John Anthony Castro, brought this litigation seeking an injunction to prevent Secretary of State Andrew “Mac” Warner from placing Donald John Trump’s name on the West Virginia Republican Primary ballot. He asserts that former President Trump is disqualified from serving as President pursuant to Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment of the United States Constitution. Mr. Castro asserts that he has competitor standing as a candidate for the Republican nomination for President and based on his intention to continue as a general election candidate.

The Defendants move to dismiss on various grounds, including lack of standing. The arguments asserted by each Defendant with respect to standing overlap. In short, they contend that Mr. Castro has not suffered a concrete injury because there is no indication that he is in genuine competition for voters in the Republican presidential primary contest. They further contend that any injury is not traceable to Mr. Trump’s placement on the ballot or redressable by the relief sought, because there is no indication that third-party voters would choose to support Castro if Mr. Trump did not appear on the ballot. Mr. Castro opposes the motions to dismiss and maintains that he alleged sufficient facts to establish standing….

To establish standing, “[t]he plaintiff must have (1) suffered an injury in fact, (2) that is fairly traceable to the challenged conduct of the defendant, and (3) that is likely to be redressed by a favorable judicial decision.” An injury in fact must be “an invasion of a legally protected interest that was concrete, particularized, and not conjectural or hypothetical.” ... “At the pleading stage, general factual allegations of injury resulting from the defendant’s conduct may suffice,” but at summary judgment, “the plaintiff can no longer rest on such mere allegations, but must set forth by affidavit or other evidence specific facts.”

Although the Defendants present their motions to dismiss as facial challenges, many of their arguments rest on whether the Plaintiff’s allegations are plausible. For example, Mr. Trump’s memorandum in support of his motion to dismiss argues that the “Plaintiff does not allege that he appears on any national polling” or “has secured a single dollar in campaign contributions,” {The Defendant included reference to FEC campaign contribution records with respect to this argument} and that “there is no plausible claim that President Trump’s inclusion on the ballot materially reduces Plaintiff’s chances of being awarded West Virginia’s delegates to the Republican National Convention.” {The Court is aware that jurisdictional discovery and hearings have been conducted in similar case(s) filed by Mr. Castro. See, e.g., Castro v. Scanlan, et al., 23-cv-416-JL (D. N.H.). Accordingly, the Court anticipates that any necessary discovery can be completed in a brief period.} But the Plaintiff’s polling position, campaign finance disclosures, and campaign activities are not part of the record in this matter.

West Virginia law establishes that candidates must file certificates of announcement for the upcoming primary between January 8 and January 27, 2024. If the Court has jurisdiction, further proceedings will be necessary to determine whether the Plaintiff is entitled to the injunctive relief he seeks. In the interests of reaching a conclusive resolution with respect to standing as expeditiously as possible, the Court finds that the pending motions to dismiss should be converted to motions for summary judgment, and the parties should be provided the opportunity to submit evidence in support of their positions. The Court will direct supplemental briefing to allow submission of evidence and further argument on the construed motions.

The court also added:

In directing supplemental briefing, the Court cautions the Plaintiff to focus on factual and legal arguments, rather than personal attacks. Although Mr. Castro receives some leeway in his filings as a pro-se litigant, despite his representation that he possesses a law degree, his filings contain numerous examples of clearly inappropriate attacks. {See, e.g., Document 24 (referring to “the U.S. Magistrate’s willful blindness”); Document 28 (stating that “[i]f this Court had any self-respect, it would sanction WVGOP’s frivolous filings”); Document 31 (expressing “serious concerns about the competency of the Clerk’s Office” and “demand[ing] this Court have a discussion with the staff of the Clerk’s Office to take their work more seriously” because a document filed by an unrelated party was briefly misidentified as being filed by Mr. Castro); Document 48 (“the U.S. Magistrate Judge’s half-witted actions and inactions have brought to light the unconstitutional nature of the role of U.S. Magistrate Judges in our federal judicial system”); Document 53 (“Defendant Secretary of State is advised to read the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure.”); Document 54 (“WVGOP’s filings have already exhibited a gross degree of intellectual deficiency” and “This Court should be ashamed of itself for allowing WVGOP to make a mockery of it.”); Document 63 (“Once again, Third-Party Plaintiff West Virginia Republican Party exhibits their gross lack of understanding of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure;” “WVGOP seems confused by this;” “WVGOP has exhibited a severe degree of intellectual deficiency”). This list is not exhaustive.} Discussion of the facts and the law will guide the Court’s decisions, and derisive commentary is of little value to the Court in resolving motions. In several filings, Mr. Castro has attacked the character or intelligence of opposing counsel, as well as judges and court staff. The Court’s docket is not a social media feed, and any future filing with ad hominem attacks, inappropriate statements about individuals involved in this litigation, or other snide and malicious comments will be stricken from the record.

Note that this is a separate matter from the Trump gag order dispute in the federal prosecution in D.C.; this relates to civility in court filings, a matter over which judges have much more authority than they do over public statements by the parties.

The post Interesting Standing Dispute in Fourteenth Amendment Section 3 Case Against Trump appeared first on Reason.com.

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Several Justices Express Dismay at Long Delays in Returning Seized Cars to Innocent Owners


Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor | Anthony Behar/Sipa USA/Newscom

In February 2019, police in Satsuma, Alabama, pulled over Halima Culley’s son and arrested him for possession of marijuana and drug paraphernalia. They seized the car, which belonged to Culley, and tried to keep it under Alabama’s civil forfeiture law. Although Culley ultimately got her car back as an “innocent owner,” that process took 20 months.

That same month, a friend borrowed Lena Sutton’s car. He was pulled over in Leesburg, Alabama, and arrested for methamphetamine possession. Like Culley, Sutton successfully invoked the “innocent owner” defense to get her car back after police seized it. But that did not happen for over a year. In the meantime, her lawyer told the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday, “she missed medical appointments, she wasn’t able to keep a job, she wasn’t able to pay a cell phone bill, and as a result” she “was not in a position to be able to communicate about the forfeiture proceedings.”

In separate class-action lawsuits, Culley and Sutton unsuccessfully argued that they and similarly situated property owners have a due process right to a prompt post-seizure hearing aimed at determining whether they can keep their cars while a forfeiture case is pending. The issue for the Supreme Court in Culley v. Marshall is which standard to apply in deciding that question. During oral arguments in the case, several justices showed a heartening awareness of the injustices inflicted by civil asset forfeiture, a system of legalized larceny that allows law enforcement agencies to pad their budgets by confiscating allegedly crime-tainted property.

“I’m very sympathetic [to] the problem that you’ve identified,” Justice Neil Gorsuch, who has previously expressed concern about civil forfeiture abuses, told Shay Dvoretzky, the attorney representing Culley and Sutton. “Clearly, there are some jurisdictions that are using civil forfeiture as funding mechanisms,” he noted. They therefore are not keen to expedite innocent owners’ challenges, he said, and may impose onerous requirements, such as telling forfeiture victims, “You can get your car back if you call between 3 and 5 p.m. on a Tuesday and speak with someone who is never available.”

In other words, Gorsuch said, “there are arguments to be made that there are attempts to create processes that are deeply unfair and obviously so in order to retain the property for the coffers of the state.” He also noted “allegations before us” that “some states, because law enforcement uses these forfeitures to fund themselves,” have been known to demand that an owner surrender some of his property in exchange for getting the rest back or “engage in other concessions outside of regular process.” The due process test that Alabama prefers “would seem to strip the courts of tools to deal with those kinds of cases,” he told Alabama Solicitor General Edmund G. LaCour Jr., who argued that “the forfeiture proceeding without more provides the post-seizure hearing required by due process.”

In contrast with previous civil forfeiture cases, Gorsuch added, “we know a lot more now…about how civil forfeiture is being used in some states, about the kinds of abuses that it’s subject to, about the kind of incentives operating on law enforcement officers that tend toward those abuses.” If “we look around the world and we think there are real problems here and those problems would be solved if you got a really quick probable cause determination,” he asked LaCour, “why shouldn’t we do that?”

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who like Gorsuch has a history of questioning civil forfeiture practices, also highlighted the problems created by laws that give cops a license to steal. “We know there are abuses of the forfeiture system,” she said. “We know it because it’s been documented throughout the country repeatedly.” Those laws, she noted, give police a financial incentive “to seize property to keep its value as opposed to issues of probable cause or issues of legitimacy of the seizure.” That incentive, she said, “has often led to months, if not years, of retention of property that ultimately gets returned to the owner,” either “because there was…no probable cause” or “because of the innocent owner defense.” Yes, the process can take years.

If innocent owners like Culley and Sutton could seek the return of their cars before a final determination of whether they are subject to forfeiture, LaCour warned, “you’re going to have more property released to criminals, it’s going to potentially be misused again, crime will pay more, and you will have more crime.” Sotomayor pushed back: “I doubt very much that criminal defendants from whom cars have been taken are going to seek a retention hearing because whatever they say will be used against them in the criminal case.” She noted that there is no evidence to support LaCour’s scenario in New York, where owners are entitled to such hearings within 10 business days of a seizure.

“These cases are most important for one group of people, innocent owners, because they are people who claim they didn’t know about the criminal activity,” Sotomayor said. “Many of these cases involve parents with…teenage or close-to-teenage children involved in drug activity. The ones that don’t may involve spouses or friends….It is not criminals keeping cars. It’s innocent owners receiving back their cars months, if not years, later.”

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson amplified Sotomayor’s point. These cases, she said, involve people who “say that they’re innocent owners, that they own the property and that they knew nothing about the drugs.”

Nicole Reaves, assistant to U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, joined LaCour in arguing that due process requires nothing more than “a timely final forfeiture hearing.” Sotomayor again was not buying it. “You keep saying ‘timely,'” she said. “I don’t know what ‘timely’ is….Some hearings, by the nature of what the courts are doing, are taking up to a year or more. I don’t consider that timely if I’m an innocent owner who relies on my car…for survival.”

Regarding the history of civil forfeiture, Sotomayor noted that “English common law provided post-seizure process separate from the final forfeiture hearing.” While “we don’t have a similar history in early American courts,” she said, that’s because civil forfeiture in the United States was, until relatively recently, narrowly and expeditiously applied.

“Except for pirate ships and some isolated other types of seizures, we don’t have a robust forfeiture process until the 1970s,” Sotomayor noted. “If the common law doesn’t have a clearly established process, does that mean no process is ever due, or does it mean that we have to judge it by the circumstances that exist in modern times? I would think it’s the latter….Forfeitures were quicker earlier in our history. Forfeitures were rare. And now we’ve expanded them to all sorts of property interests, even those involving innocent owners. It’s a new thing.”

The Institute for Justice, which filed a brief in support of Culley and Sutton, welcomed Sotomayor et al.’s acknowledgment of civil forfeiture’s unfair consequences. “Without a prompt hearing after their property is seized, innocent owners can lose the use of their vehicle for months or years, causing great hardship,” said Institute for Justice senior attorney Dan Alban. “The Court asked tough questions about how to apply past precedent in evaluating the adequacy of forfeiture procedures. However the Court answers those questions, we hope a majority will recognize that it simply is not constitutional for the government to hold someone’s car or other property for months or even years without any way to get a hearing.”

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Written Version of My Talk on “How Federalism Promotes Unity Through Diversity”


Federalism 2 | NA
(NA)

In March, I gave a talk on “How Federalism Promotes Unity Through Diversity” at a panel that was part of the Federalist Society National Student Symposium. The Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy asked me to convert the text into a short written article, which I was happy to do. It is now available for free download on SSRN. It will be published sometime in the next few weeks. Here is the abstract:

Does federalism promote unity? In one obvious sense, the answer is surely “no.” Federalism necessarily reduces unity because it leads to divergence on at least some policy areas. If there were no significant policy differences between the various state and local governments, then there would be little point in having federalism in the first place.

But the diversity federalism creates can also help promote unity, by reducing the conflict that arises when the federal government has the power to impose one-size-fits-all policies throughout the country. Decentralizing authority can mitigate that conflict. It can also empower people to make better choices by “voting with their feet.” As a result, more people can live under policies that they prefer, and the choices they make are likely to be better-informed. There are some limitations to the idea that federalism can promote unity and better decision-making through diversity. But it has tremendous value, nonetheless.

I developed some of the points made in this article in greater detail in various longer works, most notably my book Free to Move: Foot Voting, Migration, and Political Freedom.

And here is the video of the panel on which I originally gave the talk. The panel was entitled “Does Federalism Lead to a More United or Disunited Democracy?” The other participants were Prof. Jud Campbell (Univ. of Richmond) and my George Mason University colleague Michael Greve. Judge Andrew Oldham (5th Circuit) moderated.

The post Written Version of My Talk on "How Federalism Promotes Unity Through Diversity" appeared first on Reason.com.

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Stocks Spooked For 3rd Straight Month As WW3 Fears Spark Surge In USD, Gold, & Crypto (Not Oil)

Stocks Spooked For 3rd Straight Month As WW3 Fears Spark Surge In USD, Gold, & Crypto (Not Oil)

Today saw wage inflation rising faster than hoped (hawkish for Fed) and consumer confidence worsened (with inflation expectations jumping).

Not exactly a great way to end the month.

But, as Financial Conditions tightened for the 3rd straight month in October, they failed to spook the economy

Source: Bloomberg

Alongside a growing realization that the US was not in imminent danger of slipping into recession (and was in fact achieving one of its strongest growth quarters in the past 20 years), came another leg up in rates.

And, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes, as investor consensus around sustained US growth rises, the expectation that the Fed will soon need to CUT rates falls. And if the Fed is not going to cut rates in 2024 as much as many had previously anticipated, then rates may need to rise further towards the ultra-short term yield of the Fed Funds rate — currently 5.25%-5.50%.

Source: Bloomberg

Higher long-term rates are a headwind to valuations typically. And while the growth trajectory of the US economy has proven to be more robust than many anticipated, the forward outlook for growth is not as strong as what we have just experienced…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps tumbled over 7% in October, down for the 3rd month in a row and the worst monthly loss since Sept 2022. Nasdaq fell over 2% on the month, also its 3rd straight monthly loss in a row.

Notice stocks were initially bid on the Israel-Hamas war…

Source: Bloomberg

Utilities were the only sector to end October in the green with Energy and Consumer Discretionary the biggest losers…

Source: Bloomberg

The Long Bond rose over 30bps on the month – its 7th straight month of yield increases – but the short-end (2Y) was basically unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) steepened for the 4th month in a row to its highest since July 2022 (dis-inverting numerous times intra-month)…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields (10Y) rose for the 6th month of the last 7 to their highest ‘since Lehman’ (Oct 2008)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the 3rd straight month to its highest monthly close since Nov 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s price action in FX land was quite shocking…

USDJPY soared by more than 3 big figures from the overnight lows (weaker JPY vs USD) after the BoJ sent somewhat mixed messages with its YCC adjustment…

Source: Bloomberg

JPY is at its weakest since its spike in Oct 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

…although on a closing basis, this is the weakest yen relative to the dollar since June 1990…

Source: Bloomberg

EURUSD rallied early (despite weak GDP and lower inflation) but then humans looked at the reports and the euro dumped against the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos all soared in October with Solana outperforming….

Source: Bloomberg

This was Bitcoin’s best month since January 2023, surging above $35,000 for the first time since May 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

But Ethereum notably underperformed (its biggest monthly underperformance of bitcoin since Feb 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold’s best month since March but futures saw their biggest month since July 2020, starting the ramp as Hamas attacked Israel from $1820 to $2020…

Oil (WTI futs) suffered its worst month since May (very close to its worst month since Nov 2021), but NatGas soared over 23% on the month – its biggest monthly gain since July 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI erased all of the post-Israel attack gains and some…

Finally, some bigger picture malarkey. The US equity market continues to fight to maintain its extreme richness relative to GDP (Buffett’s favorite indicator), bouncing off its DotCom peak highs, and now back down to it – still massively over-valued…

Source: Bloomberg

Did Biden break the AI bubble?

Source: Bloomberg

Where to from here?

Happy Halloween!

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/31/2023 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/CLJe3EZ Tyler Durden

Watch: Reporter Exposes White House Double Standards On “Extremists”

Watch: Reporter Exposes White House Double Standards On “Extremists”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre again refused to describe anti-Israel agitators as ‘extremists’ after Fox News reporter Peter Doocy noted that she is always talking about ‘MAGA extremists’.

“Does President Biden think the anti-Israel protestors in this country are extremists?” Doocy asked.

Jean-Pierre provided a word salad and pivoted immediately to talking about “Neo-Nazi’s in Charlottesville” in 2017.

Doocy exposed the double standard, noting “You guys talk about extremists—it is usually about MAGA extremists—so what about these protestors who are making Jewish students feel unsafe on college campuses? Are they extremists?”

Commentator Charlie Kirk noted “when asked about anti-Semitism she proceeds to reference completely unrelated Charlottesville and Trump’s so-called “Muslim Ban” that is looking better and better by the day.”

“Pure gaslighting drivel to avoid stating the obvious,” Kirk added:

Doocy wasn’t done there, further asking “Does President Biden look at these anti-Israel protests on college campuses and think, ‘It’s nice to see that the country’s youth are so involved, or does he think the next generation is doomed?”

Jean-Pierre again failed to answer the question, responding “There’s no place for hate in America, and we condemn any antisemitic threat or incident in the strongest terms.”

While she stated that she has been “very clear” about antisemitic incidents, including college ‘protesters’ chanting “death to jews,” in reality, Jean-Pierre originally stated last week that she had not seen “any credible threats” to Jews and instead touted “hate-fueled attacks” against Muslims, before doing a complete 180 the day after in response to strong criticism.

The Biden administration appears to only want to reference ‘extremists’ when it suits their narrative.

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/31/2023 – 15:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/KGtYBA5 Tyler Durden