America Has Borrowed $1 Trillion Since the Start of Football Season


Benjamin Franklin as seen on a $100 bill | Photo 139752130 © Roman Volskiy | Dreamstime.com

Here’s how fast the federal government is borrowing piles of money: when the national debt hit $33 trillion in mid-September, the current National Football League (NFL) season was already two weeks old.

You don’t have to be a fan of sports to know that football season in America isn’t particularly long—excluding the playoffs, teams play 17 games over the span of 18 weeks. The final games of the season are scheduled to be played this upcoming weekend, a few days after the national debt officially surpassed a new threshold: $34 trillion, according to an announcement made Wednesday morning by the Treasury Department.

In other words, don’t feel bad about how much money you’ve probably lost on sports betting and fantasy leagues this year. The federal government has run up a $1 trillion tab in less time—and the next trillion-dollar threshold isn’t far off.

“Looking ahead, debt will continue to skyrocket as the Treasury expects to borrow nearly $1 trillion more by the end of March,” said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, in a statement. “Adding trillion after trillion in debt, year after year, should be a flashing red warning sign to any policymaker who cares about the future of our country.”

Indeed, it’s astounding how quickly the federal government is piling up new debt. Equally remarkable is how much sooner it has hit some of these thresholds compared to the expected trajectories before the COVID-19 pandemic. As the Associated Press (AP) points out, as of January 2020 the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal government wouldn’t be $34 trillion in debt until 2029.

Since then, the debt has grown faster due to the unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus unleashed during the pandemic and because baseline federal spending has failed to return to pre-pandemic levels. In the fiscal year that ended in September, the federal government spent $6.1 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion in fiscal year 2019 (the last one before the pandemic). Federal revenue has climbed in recent years as well—$4.4 trillion last year, up from $3.5 trillion in 2019—but those increases haven’t been large enough to keep up with the surge in new spending.

In that January 2020 CBO report cited by the AP, federal spending was expected to hit $5.3 trillion by 2023. The federal government is now running about $800 billion ahead of that pace—and that doesn’t account for any of the one-time emergency COVID-related spending—and so naturally the annual budget deficits are bigger and the national debt is growing at a faster rate.

“Though our level of debt is dangerous for both our economy and for national security, America just cannot stop borrowing,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit that advocates for lower deficits, in a statement. “This is a moment of consequence and continuing to refuse to pay our own bills will not lead us to where we need to be as a nation.”

In some ways, it seemed like 2023 was the start of a political reckoning with the government’s addiction to borrowing. In August, Fitch cut the federal government’s credit rating, and Moody’s warned in November that it might soon do the same. Against that backdrop, Congress navigated a debt ceiling increase that placed some new limits on future discretionary spending—even though so-called mandatory spending on things like Social Security and Medicare are the bigger drivers of the long-term budget problems.

The debt is likely to become an even bigger story in the new year: “The Debt Matters Again,” proclaimed The New York Times this week, noting that economists who spent the past decade downplaying concerns about the debt are now getting more worried because of how higher interest rates have made borrowing more expensive.

That’s a nasty feedback loop—one that Reason and others have been warning about for years—that means the federal government will have to borrow more money in future years to afford the payments on the money it has already borrowed. The Peterson Foundation estimates that the government spends about $2 billion per day just to service the cost of existing debt.

Oh, and Congress still hasn’t passed a budget for the year. The current continuing resolution expires in two stages: one later this month and a second in early February.

Until lawmakers make some serious changes to fiscal policy, expect these announcements to keep coming with greater frequency—at least for a little while. The United States has about 20 years until “no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt,” economists at the University of Pennsylvania warned in October.

One of the things that makes professional football so compelling is the urgency that comes with each week. With so few games on the schedule, each one is seemingly the most important of the year, and even a single loss early in the season can have a significant impact on a team’s long-term aspirations.

Congress would do well to embrace that same sense of urgency when it comes to the country’s fiscal status, which is a game no one should want to lose.

The post America Has Borrowed $1 Trillion Since the Start of Football Season appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/xWVgULQ
via IFTTT

Equities Eye January Pause As Risk-On Mood Fades

Equities Eye January Pause As Risk-On Mood Fades

By Michael Msika, BLoomberg Markets Live reporter and strateigst

After partying frenziedly for two months before the New Year, stock markets might well need to take a breather in January.

On the face of it, momentum still looks robust. But a closer look shows investors gravitating toward last year’s laggards, an oft-observed January pattern. On the first trading day of 2024, telecoms and energy, alongside value stocks such as banks and autos, benefited from the rotation, while tech slid.

There are also reasons to be cautious on markets as a whole.

Technically, global stocks have started the year in overbought territory, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 has been overbought for a record 20 sessions in a row, based on its 14-day RSI. And as our chart below shows, it’s repeatedly come up against resistance, failing yet again yesterday to breach a level that’s been unchallenged for two years. The index last broke above that barrier in January 2022, but the subsequent record high proved short-lived.


 
Given the recent rally was propelled by bets on big interest rate cuts, investors will probably want to make sure economic dataflow continues to back the case for aggressive policy easing. “Even if investors remain widely optimistic regarding the outcome for global economies this year, with decreasing inflation and recession fears, they will remain data dependent,” says Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades.

The rate-cut optimism faces a test Friday, with euro-area inflation forecast to show a small upward bump. And final PMI readings released yesterday confirmed manufacturing activity and new orders remain stuck in contraction — a stark contrast with buoyant stock markets.  

John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management, a big-time equity bull who correctly predicted last year’s S&P 500 surge, says “it’s not uncommon for markets to pause to digest a bull run of the magnitude experienced in the fourth quarter just ended.”

Stoltzfus sees the earnings season — officially starting in the US on Jan. 12 — as the next catalyst for markets. Yet, earnings expectations are becoming less upbeat. For the Stoxx 600, 12-month blended EPS estimates have been sliding since October. Citi’s quantitative indicator of European earnings recently hit its lowest in a year, having been negative since September.

For European companies, “a combination of margin pressure across staples, industrials and financials, along with heavy exposure to China, create challenges for first half earnings,” Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Tim Craighead and Kaidi Meng write. They predict further negative revisions, compared with upgrades in the US.   

None of the above means people are turning gloomy. In fact, a January pause may be the prelude to further stock gains, according to Bank of America quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian. Her “Sell Side Indicator” (SSI), suggests equity sentiment is now the most bullish in over 18 months but remains stuck at neutral. That implies a 13.5% price return on the S&P 500 this year.

“Wall Street is now halfway over the wall of worry,” Subramanian writes, noting that while the average recommended equity allocation increased last year by 1.6 percentage points, it had dropped in 2022 by more 6 percentage points.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 15:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Y1coeKF Tyler Durden

Houthis Claim Another Container Ship Attack As Middle East Turmoil Worsens

Houthis Claim Another Container Ship Attack As Middle East Turmoil Worsens

Turmoil in the Middle East today has been marked by twin explosions near the burial site of the late Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in Kerman, resulting in at least 73 fatalities and injuring 170 others. Additionally, there are new reports of another attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. 

According to Bloomberg, the Houthis’ armed forces’ spokesman claimed rebel forces attacked the container ship “CMA CGM TAGE” after the vessel’s captain ignored multiple warnings. 

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization reported a vessel that would’ve been in the same proximity of CMA CGM TAGE came under attack. 

However, French container shipping giant CMA CGM SA said the container ship “did not suffer any incident” and was sailing through the Red Sea area with a destination of Alexandria. 

Bloomberg data shows the container ship switched off its automatic identification system in the Arabian Sea before the Bab al-Mandab Strait on December 30. The transponder was turned on Tuesday. 

Some of the world’s largest container shippers have chosen to reroute their fleets thousands of miles around the Cape of Good Hope in response to drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea. The Houthis have said any vessel associated with Israel would be attacked. 

Over the weekend, the Maersk Hangzhou container ship was struck by a missile while transiting the Southern Red Sea. Then US attack helicopters destroyed three small Houthi boats. 

So much for the hope that the Pentagon’s Operational Prosperity Guardian would unfreeze the Red Sea.

Regional conflict risks are rising. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 14:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/w0sg3nI Tyler Durden

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Warns Immigrants Will Soon Be Sleeping On Streets

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Warns Immigrants Will Soon Be Sleeping On Streets

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has warned that illegal immigrants will soon be forced to sleep on streets as the city struggles to find space to house them amid an ongoing surge in new arrivals.

The Democrat issued the warning in an interview with FOX5 New York on Jan. 2.

Mr. Adams said that New York City is “being inundated” with illegal immigrants, with roughly 2,5000 arriving every week, although that number can top 4,000 on some weeks, he said.

“We’re not just saying we’re out of room as a sound bite, we’re out of room literally. People are going to be eventually sleeping on the streets,” Mr. Adams said.

He stressed that the so-called “sanctuary city” would soon only be able to provide food, shelter, and clothing to immigrants owing to the continuous pressure it is under.

“This is a national problem. It’s unfair for local municipalities and cities to handle this problem,” he said.

Mr. Adams also said that he believes too many immigrants are entering the United States through “various pathways and cavities in our border,” but did not elaborate further.

“We have to be extremely careful because not everyone that’s coming is pursuing the American Dream,” he said.

NYC at ‘Breaking Point’

Elsewhere during the interview, commissioner of the NYC Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs, Manuel Castro, echoed his previous remarks that the current surge of immigrant arrivals in New York City is unsustainable.

“We had to do this because it’s an emergency and a lot of people are coming in that have no idea what’s going on,” he said of the city welcoming thousands of immigrants, including those bused from Texas by Gov. Greg Abbott.

“They were just given a bus ticket to come here or a plane ticket to come here and then they don’t know where else to go.”

Their comments come after Mr. Adams in October proposed setting up tent cities in public parks to house the surge of immigrants, which has squeezed homeless shelters beyond full capacity.

In that same month, the mayor announced immigrant families with children currently residing in the city’s shelters would only be allowed to stay for 60 days as NYC reached “breaking point.”

He also urged government agencies to submit plans to cut budgets by 5 percent and potentially up to 15 percent to offset the financial impact brought by the illegal immigration crisis.

Illegal immigrants board a bus en route to a shelter at Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York City on May 18, 2023. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Clampdown on Immigrant Buses

Last month, Mr. Adams issued an executive order to clamp down on charter bus companies transporting illegal immigrants from Texas, stating that such firms must notify the city’s Emergency Management Office at least 32 hours before arriving in the city.

According to the executive order, charter bus companies may only drop off immigrants between 8:30 a.m. and 12 p.m. every day, while the sole designated location for drop-offs is on West 41st Street between Eighth and Ninth Avenues in Manhattan.

Firms who fail to comply with the regulations risk class B misdemeanor charges, fines, lawsuits, and the impounding of buses, according to Mr. Adams.

Chicago earlier this month made a similar move and reportedly began impounding buses sent by Texas to drop off illegal immigrants in the city and began imposing fines on buses that do so without a permit.

Mr. Adams has previously estimated it will cost the city roughly $12 billion over the next three years to handle the ongoing influx of immigrants.

Speaking during his appearance on FOX5 New York on Tuesday, the Democrat said his administration is unable to do anything to change New York City’s “sanctuary” status which protects immigrants from being turned over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

“I don’t have the authorization to tell people they can’t come into New York City,” he said. “It’s against the law. We cannot by law tell someone if they come into the city ‘you can’t come into the city.’ We can’t even turn them over to ICE,” he said.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 14:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/IFh8iTM Tyler Durden

Fed Minutes Push Back On Powell’s Dovish Pivot

Fed Minutes Push Back On Powell’s Dovish Pivot

Today we get to see the cherry-picked highlights from The Fed’s ‘Great Pivoting’ in December.

Will they admit what we all think happened? Of course not

Since the ‘dovish’ flip-flop at the last FOMC meeting on December 13th, markets have mimicked ‘the QE trade’ – dollar down, everything else up (led by crypto)…

Source: Bloomberg

Short-term rates markets have clung to the belief that The Fed will start cutting in March – with all the hawkish jawboning failing to shift expectations too much (75% odds of March cut now)…

Source: Bloomberg

And also still expected six full rate-cuts (150bps) in 2024

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, after the unprecedented easing of financial conditions since the start of November, the last three weeks since the Dec FOMC has seen Financial Conditions stabilize (and start to tighten very modestly)…

Source: Bloomberg

So the big question is, will The Fed use the Minutes to jawbone back these ultra-dovish expectations further after various ‘hawkish’ Fed Speakers since the FOMC have failed to change the market’s mind on 2024

Source: Bloomberg

Will the Minutes be as dovish as Powell sounded?

So, what do they want us to know?

The Fed Minutes appear to be far less dovish than Powell suggested.

  • No sign of imminent rate cuts: Policymakers say their projections imply reductions “would be appropriate by the end of 2024” and several suggest rates could stay at current level for longer than they currently anticipate

  • The benchmark rate was seen as likely at or near its peak, though officials note that further rate hikes remain possible if the economy warrants them

  • In addition, Fed officials reaffirmed a “careful” approach to rate decisions.

  • Several participants observed that circumstances might warrant keeping policy rate at current level longer than they currently anticipate.

  • Participants generally reaffirmed it would be appropriate for policy to remain restrictive until inflation was ‘clearly moving down sustainably’.

  • At the same time, officials acknowledge “clear progress” in 2023 toward Fed’s 2% inflation goal

It seems the discussion of rate-cuts, that Powell mentioned during the press conference, was far less of a ‘thing’ than the market went with.

These Minutes in no way support a 150bps rate-cut cycle next year.

And uncertainty remains high:

“Participants generally perceived a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.”

Fed doves are more worried about labor market weakening too quickly, signaling a sense of urgency to cutting rates.

“Several participants noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further, the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.

Furthermore, the Minutes pushed back against too much exuberance in financial markets:

“Many participants remarked that an easing in financial conditions beyond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal.”

And some talk of tapering QT:

“Several participants remarked that the Committee’s balance sheet plans indicated that it would slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet when reserve balances are somewhat above the level judged consistent with ample reserves.

These participants suggested that it would be appropriate for the Committee to begin to discuss the technical factors that would guide a decision to slow the pace of runoff well before such a decision was reached in order to provide appropriate advance notice to the public.”

Read the full FOMC Minutes below:

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 14:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/gJfc5Gh Tyler Durden

Los Angeles County Reinstates Mask Mandates For Hospitals

Los Angeles County Reinstates Mask Mandates For Hospitals

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Los Angeles County over the weekend confirmed that has reinstated a mask-wearing mandate for staff, patients, and visitors at licensed health care facilities, citing a recent increase in COVID-19 cases.

A health care professional in a hospital prepares to enter a patient’s room. (File, Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images)

According to health officials, the county entered the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) “medium level” for hospital admissions on Dec. 29, triggering the masking mandate.

“Over the past week in Los Angeles County, there have been notable, yet not unexpected, increases in COVID-19 reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths,” the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement about the change.

“While recent increases are significant, they remain considerably below last winter’s peak and common-sense protections are strongly recommended to help curb transmission and severe illness as the new year begins.”

The mandate stipulates that the requirement will be rescinded once Los Angeles County, which has the highest population of any county in the United States, re-enters the CDC’s threshold for “low level” COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations.

The threshold for the CDC’s “medium”  level is 10 to 19.9 new COVID-19-related hospital admissions per 100,000 people over one week. The order said that over the past week or so, 10.5 new COVID-19-connected hospitalizations were recorded across Los Angeles County.

“In addition, all persons visiting a licensed health care facility that provides inpatient care are required to mask when around patients and while in patient-care areas. This will remain in effect until the COVID-19 hospital admission level in Los Angeles County is below the CDC’s Medium Level for at least 14 consecutive days,” the order added.

Far More Previously

Historical data posted by the CDC show that the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases is still a far cry from the number of cases in 2020, 2021, and early 2022.

The data show that for the week ending Dec. 23, 2023, there were about 29,000 hospitalizations across the United States, while for the week ending a year before that, on Dec. 24, there were some 39,000 hospitalizations.

About three months ago, Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer told the Los Angeles Times that she wasn’t looking to reinstate a mask mandate.

The official said she was “really not focused on masks coming back as a mandate,” adding, “If we ever felt like we needed to return to everybody needing to put their mask back on again, I think we would be in bad shape and most people would want to put their mask on.

We have such good tools right now that we really shouldn’t get there.

Los Angeles’ mandate came after New York City’s public hospital system, NYC Health + Hospitals, did that same at its facilities late last month.

“Due to an uptick in respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, flu & RSV in our communities & our hospital, we must return to mandatory masking. Please wear a mask when you visit us!” the New York City public hospital operator wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, in late December in a now-deleted post.

The hospital system also posted a photo of staff wearing masks on the platform, drawing negative feedback in the comments section.

Aside from New York and Los Angeles, UMass Memorial Medical Center in Worcester, Massachusetts, confirmed to local media that it would issue a monthlong mask requirement for its staff effective on Jan. 2. Patients and visitors won’t be mandated to wear face coverings, however.

People board a bus wearing face masks amid the coronavirus pandemic in south Los Angeles, on April 6, 2020. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

“These changes are expected to remain in effect for approximately one month, at which time they will be reevaluated based on current trends,” a spokesperson for the hospital said in the statement. “The health and well-being of our patients, visitors, and employees is our top priority.”

The Mass General Brigham health system in Massachusetts also announced that it is reinstating masking requirements because of COVID-19.

Our masking policies are based on the current respiratory illness rates in our communities,” Mass General Brigham confirmed in a statement to local media on Dec. 28.

In Delaware, TidalHealth announced on Dec. 28 that it’s mandating masks for all hospital visitors in patients’ rooms. That rule was initiated in “an effort to protect the most vulnerable of our population from close contact with persons that may be contagious but not yet have symptoms,” according to the hospital.

Multiple California counties across the Bay Area region had already imposed a mask mandate for staff. That order started in November and will run until the end of spring because of a predicted rise in respiratory illnesses, officials have said.

In December, the CDC provided an update on the JN.1 COVID-19 variant by saying that it accounts for between 39 percent and 50 percent of all cases. But the agency said that it’s not clear if the variant causes more severe symptoms.

The World Health Organization said in an earlier update that the strain doesn’t appear to pose a higher risk than previous variants.

“As we observe the rise of the JN.1 variant, it’s important to note that while it may be spreading more widely, there is currently no significant evidence suggesting it is more severe or that it poses a substantial public health risk,” John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital, told ABC News last month.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 13:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/PnAfRZE Tyler Durden

Maine’s Bad Prostitution Law Could Be Coming Soon to Your State


maine | Illustration: Lex Villena; Bas Masseus

In 2023, Maine became the first U.S. state to partially decriminalize prostitution. It’s unlikely to be the last. And sex-worker rights activists are concerned.

By criminalizing prostitution customers but not sex workers, Maine’s law may seem like a step in the right direction. But it threatens to derail momentum for full decriminalization, while recreating many of full prohibition’s harms.

It also represents a paternalistic philosophical premise: that sex workers are all victims and their consent to sexual activity is—like a minor’s—irrelevant. And this premise is used to justify all sorts of bad programs and policies, including drastically ramping up penalties for people who pay for sex.

Orwellian “Equality” 

The new Maine law removed criminal penalties for selling sex under certain circumstances, while keeping in place a ban on buying sex and other activities surrounding prostitution. It also rechristened prostitution as commercial sexual exploitation.

This has long been known as the Swedish model or Nordic model of sex work law after Sweden implemented it in 1999 and Norway and Iceland in the 2000s. It’s also referred to as the “End Demand” strategy—a term cribbed from 1980s Drug War plans to “end demand” for illegal drugs by shifting law enforcement focus from drug dealers to people buying drugs (and we all know how that worked out…). Its lodestar is ramping up penalties for prostitution customers, whom prohibitionists still refer to using the old-timey slang “johns,” and devoting lots of law enforcement attention to “john stings” in which undercover cops pose as women selling sexual services.

In an Orwellian twist, U.S. activists have been trying to rebrand it the “Equality Model“—an egregious misnomer, considering that the whole point of this model is that those selling sex (largely women) and those paying for it (largely men) should be treated differently under the law.

The underlying premise of the “Equality Model” is that no one consents to paid sex; that they’re all victims, and thus shouldn’t be penalized for their part in such transactions. In turn, anyone paying for sex—even with someone who seems to be consenting—is a perpetrator who should be criminalized harshly. Likewise, anyone who abets prostitution should be treated as a sex trafficker, even when the person being “prostituted” is ostensibly a consenting adult.

Nordic/End Demand/Equality Model advocates reject the term sex worker in favor of terms like prostituted women or sex trade survivors—phrases that remove all agency from those engaged in selling sex. Their whole premise infantilizes sex workers and, by extension, women, since a majority of sex workers are women.

Maggie McNeill wrote the ultimate essay on this more than 10 years ago. “The ‘Swedish model’ posits that paying for sex is a form of male violence against women,” McNeill noted. “This is why only the act of payment is de jure prohibited: the woman is legally defined as being unable to give valid consent, just as an adolescent girl is in the crime of statutory rape. The man is thus defined as morally superior to the woman; he is criminally culpable for his decisions, but she is not. In one case, a 17-year-old boy (a legal minor in Sweden) was convicted under the law, thus establishing that in the area of sex, adult women are less competent than male children.”

Coming Soon to a State Near You? 

I talked to Kaytlin Bailey, founder of Old Pros—a nonprofit media organization dedicated to elevating sex worker stories—late last month about what political trends were on her group’s radar for 2024. Bailey said the biggest one is the push in the U.S. to pass Nordic/End Demand/Equality Model prostitution laws, which she and other sex worker rights activists know will make their work more difficult and less safe by criminalizing clients and people whom sex workers live and work with.

There’s no doubt that the political profile of such policies has been rising.

Maine may be the only state to pass a Nordic Model bill last year, but at least two additional states—Massachusetts and New York—considered them.

Last year also saw big new grants available for people pushing the “Equality Model,” new symposiums on its implementation and enforcement, and applause for it from old school feminist entities like Ms. Magazine.

Making Men Who Pay for Sex Pay

One of the biggest dangers of the Nordic model push in the U.S. is that places will take the pro-carceral part of it—in which prostitution customers are serious criminals who deserve steeper penalties—to heart while ignoring the parts that at least provide sex workers some relief from prosecution. We’re already seeing this take effect in several states.

Texas made soliciting paid sex a felony in 2022. Last year, several states, including Oklahoma and Tennessee, considered measures to do the same. A bill to this effect was introduced in Delaware just last month.

Montana last year raised possible penalties for patronizing prostitution from a maximum of $1,000 and/or five years in prison to a maximum of $5,000 and/or 10 years in prison.

Montana also created a mandatory minimum of two years (and a possible sentence of up to 20 years) for “sex trafficking,” which it defines as any third-party involvement in prostitution, regardless of whether the person being paid for sex was a consenting adult. Driving a sex worker to meet a customer is now “sex trafficking.” So is renting a place to a sex worker, or benefiting in any way financially from prostitution—opening up landlords and motels to sex trafficking charges if they don’t kick sex workers out.

Why This Will Catch On…  

“End Demand” policies are catnip to a certain sort of politician. They have a pro-woman veneer without being radical departures from the status quo.

They defy easy left/right labels and provide opportunities for bipartisan legislative efforts.

They can be framed as a way to get tough on crime, or as a type of criminal justice reform.

“End Demand” activists have even started co-opting the language of racial justice and social justice for their efforts. See, for instance, the prohibitionist group Rights4Girls tweeting about how prostitution customers are mostly white men exploiting marginalized women.

People who don’t pay close attention may genuinely think that they’re doing a good thing by implementing the “Equality Model.”

But they would be wrong.

… And Why It Shouldn’t

Advocates of asymmetrical criminalization say it’s beneficial for people selling sex, but a wealth of evidence suggests otherwise. Because no matter what you call it, this model keeps prostitution a black market—which means most of the things that make prostitution dangerous remain intact.

Under “partial decriminalization” like Maine’s, it’s still illegal for sex workers to work together, to work in safe locations, or to employ people to help keep them safe. Their work is still policed, only now it’s deemed for their own good. They still can’t advertise openly. They still face reluctance from clients—perhaps more than ever—to submit to screening procedures. And because some segment of law-abiding or risk-averse people are going to be turned off by a criminalized system in a way they might not be under decriminalization, the pool of prostitution customers is tilted toward people who might be riskier in a number of ways.

Being a black market also makes things more risky for prostitution customers, police targeting notwithstanding.

And it still means that cops are going to waste a lot of time and resources—and invade a lot of privacy—going after people for private, consensual sex acts.

“The conflation of adult consensual behavior with exploitation is a direct attack on the bodily autonomy of adults and assumes that sex workers in Maine are not competent enough to make informed decisions about their own private choices,” Melissa Sontag Broudo, co-director of the SOAR Institute, testified to the Maine judiciary committee last year. Additionally, criminalizing the purchase of sex misdirects law enforcement resources towards consensual interactions, further limiting resources available to address exploitation and trafficking.”

Evidence from countries that have implemented Nordic-style policies suggests they’re not what it’s cracked up to be.

One study published in 2023 found that liberalizing prostitution laws led to lower rape rates overall, while passing stricter prohibitions led to increases in rape rates. Implementation of the Nordic Model was associated with the biggest increase.

Research on the Nordic Model in various European countries has found it failed to decrease the prevalence of prostitution,

Here’s a massive 2021 report detailing “the impact of passing and implementing Nordic Model legislation on sex workers’ lives and working conditions.” The researchers found “sex workers still face high levels of policing, and often remain criminalized under third party or organizing laws. Because policing of the buyer involves policing and surveillance of the sex trade and the transaction of commercial sex, sellers of sexual services still experiencing policing and its associated harms.”

The philosophical underpinnings of the Nordic/End Demand/Equality Model also leave room for institutionalizing a lot of conservative/rad-fem nonsense about sex, power, porn, gender relations, and more. For instance, at the Villanova University Law School’s 2023 symposium on sexual exploitation, “Tricia Gant discussed her work in the sex buyer accountability program…  a 10-week diversionary program for sex buyers which encourages them to engage in reflective interviews and discussions of loneliness, trauma, porn, and the harms of commercial sexual exploitation,” per a blog post about the event.

Why Full Decriminalization Should Be the Ultimate Goal

Sex workers and human rights activists around the world say the real way forward is full decriminalization—removing criminal penalties for both buying and selling sex. In the United States, we’ve seen small but encouraging signs that this idea is catching on, including decriminalization legislation introduced last year in Hawaii, New York, and Vermont.

Full decriminalization should be the ultimate goal. But in places where that’s not feasible yet, there are other policies that can make a positive difference, and we’ve seen some momentum around a few of these as well.

Rhode Island and a number of other states have been debating immunity bills, which can provide sex workers immunity from prostitution prosecution when they report crimes against them or others.

New York, California, and Dallas have ended “loitering for prostitution” or “manifesting prostitution” policies, which let cops harass and arrest anyone they deem likely to be a sex worker, even when that person is just standing around. The California and New York reforms came from state lawmakers. In Dallas, the county Criminal Court of Appeals struck down the law in response to a legal challenge.

And, in some places, prosecutors have vowed not to prosecute prostitution cases. It’s not an ideal situation, since it leaves things up to the discretion of individual actors and political whims. But it’s better than nothing, and certainly beats the trend toward increased sex stings we’ve seen in many places.

End Demand for Fake Progress

The growing profile of the “Equality Model” threatens to stall all this progress.

For one thing, a lot of people will be confused. For instance, Maine’s law was described by many publications as a measure to decriminalize prostitution. People who don’t read closely may not realize that End Demand policies don’t actually do that.

And even those who do read closely may not realize that this isn’t what’s generally meant by decriminalization. They might think that it’s what sex worker rights organizations and groups like the United Nations, Amnesty International, the American Civil Liberties Union, the World Health Organization, and Human Rights Watch have been pushing for, when what all of these entities have advocated is full decriminalization of prostitution.

Meanwhile, the movement to fully decriminalize sex work—to champion “rights, not rescue,” as the slogan goes—now has to spend a lot of time and effort educating people about the “Equality Model” and explaining the difference between their agenda and this one. It adds another layer of work and complication to their organizing, education, and lobbying efforts.

It looks like one of the biggest challenges for sex worker rights, sexual freedom, and civil liberties advocates in 2024 will be not letting “Equality Model” shenanigans eat up any momentum available for reforming prostitution laws the right way.

The post Maine's Bad Prostitution Law Could Be Coming Soon to Your State appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/AjXiEcW
via IFTTT

Naming Names: Infamous ‘Epstein List’ Set For Wednesday Release

Naming Names: Infamous ‘Epstein List’ Set For Wednesday Release

Documents containing previously unknown names of Jeffrey Epstein associates are set for release on Wednesday, after a New York federal court ordered court documents unsealed, CNBC reports.

Over 150 people are reportedly named in the filings, some of whom have previously been disclosed as connected with the dead pedophile, who was found dead in a New York jail after being arrested on federal child sex trafficking charges.

“Things should start getting unsealed today,” Edward Friedland, the district executive for that court, told CNBC.

The  documents were filed in connection with a Manhattan federal court lawsuit brought by Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre against Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s former girlfriend and ‘madam,’ who recruited girls for exploitation by Epstein and pals.

Only Epstein and Maxwell have been criminally charged in connection with his longstanding abuse of girls and young women at residences in New York, the U.S. Virgin Islands and elsewhere. -CNBC

That said, Judge Loretta Preska granted a 30-day extension of the disclosure of several names, including a woman identified as “Doe 107,” in order to review her claim that she faces risk of physical harm in her home country if her name is released.

Check back for updates…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 13:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/vrqcwzM Tyler Durden

This Week’s Data Will Give Early Read On 2024 Recession

This Week’s Data Will Give Early Read On 2024 Recession

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

This week sees an important piece of soft data – the manufacturing ISM, released today – and hard data, the jobs numbers out on Friday. 

The evolution of soft and hard data in 2024 will give an indication of if and when the US economy is likely to slip into a recession – something stocks near all-time highs do not yet have on their radar.

You may have missed it, but the Conference Board’s Leading Index for November was released just before Christmas. It has been declining for 20 months, and consistent with a recession.

Yet an NBER-defined downturn has been avoided thus far and is not on the cards in the near future.

What’s going on?

A look under the hood of the CB’s Leading Index – which has 10 inputs – shows that it is the hard data dragging the index down; the soft data remains elevated.

Almost all previous NBER recessions (vertical gray bars in chart below) had both the soft and hard data inputs for the Leading Index contracting at the same time.

Recessions typically occur when both hard and soft data begin to reinforce one another in a negative feedback loop. As the chart above shows, hard data is contracting, but appears to be stabilizing, while soft data has started to turn down, but remains elevated.

Key then this year will be to watch for a deterioration in soft data, i.e. stock prices, credit and survey data, or for hard data – employment, building permits, capital goods orders, etc – to begin weakening at an accelerating rate. Either would indicate an increased probability of a recession-inducing negative feedback loop developing.

A key soft data point, the manufacturing ISM, is released later today. It has been in the sub-50 zone since November 2022, and lurched lower towards the end of last year after showing some improvement. Leading indicators are optimistic that it resumes its recovery.

The chart below shows the Global Financial Tightness Indicator, essentially a diffusion of central-bank rate hikes and which leads the headline ISM by about nine months.

As most central banks pull back from raising interest rates and begin cutting, conditions are easing, which points to a higher ISM.

On the hard-data front, we’ll get the latest jobs numbers on Friday (plus some less reliable data beforehand such as the JOLTS and ADP).

The labor market is slowing, it just depends whether it begins to slow at an increasing rate.

Last month’s improvement in the unemployment rate, and the recent inflection lower in unemployment claims – which (inversely) lead payrolls – suggest that any worsening in jobs-market momentum is not imminent.

With no expected sudden ratcheting up of recession risk in the near term, that’s one risk buoyant stocks will not yet have to contend with.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 13:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/YzU2Bfe Tyler Durden

Preview Of The Fed’s “Pivot” Minutes: How Much Pushback?

Preview Of The Fed’s “Pivot” Minutes: How Much Pushback?

Today’s minutes from the Fed’s memorable December “Dovish Pivot” FOMC will be eyed to view the Fed’s true appetite on rate cuts in 2024 after the 2024 dot plot in the SEP implied three rate cuts from current levels throughout the year.

And, as Newsquawk writes in its Fed Minutes preview, Powell and Waller have sounded somewhat dovish, which has seen money markets price in 150bp of cuts throughout the year, more than the 75bp of cuts implied by the Fed’s median SEP.

Below we excerpt the highlights from the report:

  • Fed speakers have attempted to dial back these expectations since the latest Fed meeting, with Williams and Mester both noting the focus is still on determining whether policy is in the right place.

  • Although the median dot looks for the target level for the FFR at 4.6% by the end of 2024 (currently 5.4%), the range of the dot plots was wide with eight participants pencilling a rate above 4.6% and five penciling a rate beneath that level.

As a result, the minutes will be viewed by the market to gather more information on the FOMC’s thinking, but it is worth noting the minutes will only incorporate the information up to the latest meeting, therefore any development since the December 13th meeting, i.e. even more dovish market pricing, cooler than expected November PCE, cooler than expected Final Q3 GDP and the attempted pushback on market pricing from the FOMC, will not be incorporated.

Fed December Statement & SEP: The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, made dovish tweaks to its statement, whilst indicating a greater fall than many had expected to its Fed rate projections. The 2024 median rate dot was lowered to 4.6% from the prior 5.1%, beneath the analyst consensus 4.9%, indicating three cuts from current levels in 2024 – the uncertainty remains high, however, with eight out of 19 officials forecasting rates above the median and five beneath it with a forecast range of 3.9–5.4%. The 2025 median Dot was dropped to 3.6% from 3.9%, whilst the 2026 and long run dots were left unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively, bucking some expectations for an upward drift in the longer run (‘neutral’) estimate. The lower rate projections were reflective of faster progress than previously anticipated for inflation, with the Core PCE projections falling to 3.2% from 3.7% for 2023, to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2024, and to 2.2% from 2.3% for 2025. The unemployment rate forecasts were unchanged through 2025 (4.1% in both 2024 and 2025), while the 2024 GDP forecast nudged lower to 1.4% from 1.5% in 2024. The statement saw its tightening guidance softened, “In determining the extent of ANY [new word] additional policy firming that may be appropriate…”, whilst it also maintained its language added in November describing financial and credit conditions as tighter, despite some expectations that it would be removed after a rally in USTs and stocks since then. It noted growth had slowed from the strong pace in Q3 (prev. expanded at a strong pace in Q3), while it also added that inflation has eased over the past year, but maintained language it remains elevated.

Fed Speak: Powell’s Press Conference and Q&A were notably dovish, noting policymakers think they have done enough on rates and it is not likely the Fed will hike further.

  • When asked, Powell said the topic of rate cuts are starting to come into view and they are now a topic of discussion with the FOMC, adding there was a general expectation that rate cuts would be a topic of conversation going forward.

  • Powell acknowledged they had seen real progress on core inflation, whilst saying they had made reasonable progress in non-housing services inflation, he also acknowledged the rise in real rates as inflation declines, stating the Fed is very conscious of real rates and is a part of how it thinks about things.

  • Waller had also noted before the December meeting that there are good economic arguments that if inflation was to continue falling for several more months, then the Fed could lower the policy rate.

However, with the markets now pricing 150bp of cuts throughout 2024, much more aggressive than what the Fed SEP’s imply, Fed speakers since the December blackout period have been notably more hawkish, in what seems to be an attempt to dial back market pricing after a dovish Powell, cool PCE and cool GDP report.

  • Williams said that the Fed is not really talking about rate cuts right now and that the question is have they got monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive levels and the Fed will be thinking about this for some time.

  • Bostic said rate cuts are not an imminent thing, but he has instructed staff to begin developing possible principles and thresholds to guide the rate cut process.

  • Mester said that markets are “a little bit ahead” of the Fed on rate cuts, while she also echoed Williams in saying that the next phase is not when to reduce rates, it is about how long policy should remain restrictive.

  • Goolsbee also acknowledged that the market has gotten ahead of itself, but if inflation keeps coming down, the Fed can consider how restrictive it is.

  • Harker said the Fed will not cut rates right away, the job on controlling inflation is not done but things are looking better for the inflation outlook.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/03/2024 – 12:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/yEGhxJm Tyler Durden