Month: January 2024

Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 200 active service members and veterans have signed an open letter seeking accountability over the alleged harm caused by the Department of Defense’s (DOD) implementation of the now-rescinded COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

The open letter, published on Jan. 1, is directed to the American people, but names specific senior military leaders who the signers claim enabled lawlessness and betrayed the Constitution.

Some of the leaders specifically named in the letter include former and current joint chiefs of staff, service academy commandants, service inspectors general, and service surgeon generals.

The signatories state, “In the coming years, thousands within our network will run for Congress and seek appointments to executive branch offices, while those of us still serving on active duty will continue to put fulfilling our oaths ahead of striving for rank or position.

“For those who achieve the lawful authority to do so, we pledge to recall from retirement the military leaders who broke the law and will convene courts-martial for the crimes they committed.”

A number of the signatories are veterans who are now running for Congress and state-level political offices. These veterans also pledged to introduce legislation to seek accountability by reducing the alleged perpetrators’ retirement income to zero.

Many of the 231 signers of the letter are still on active duty. Several said they are taking on significant personal risk to stand up for what they believe in and to defend their unalienable rights that they feel have been trampled.

The Epoch Times spoke to Robert A. Green, Jr., an active duty Navy Commander and author of “Defending the Constitution Behind Enemy Lines.” As the author of the open letter, he employed the framework and phrasing of Thomas Jefferson’s words in the Declaration of Independence to address what he described as the current crisis of trust in the country’s military.

He and the other signatories hope to “rebuild trust through accountability” and signed the open letter as a way to emulate the founding fathers when they mutually pledged to each other their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor in the Declaration of Independence.

“Where our situation departs from the signers of the Declaration of Independence is that we do not seek separation,” Cmdr. Green said. “We do not want to be separated from the Constitution nor from what was handed down to us at so great a cost. Instead of separation, we want restoration through accountability.”

As a result, he said, the letter may be more appropriately called a “Declaration of Military Accountability.”

Bradley Miller, a former U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who previously served as a battalion commander in the 101st Airborne Division, said the allusions to the Declaration of Independence in the letter are “deliberate and meaningful.” According to him, the signatories of the letter “believe that we have suffered a long train of abuses that has come to a head with the unlawful COVID-19 shot mandate.”

“We would be negligent in our duty to uphold our oaths to the Constitution as well as negligible in our loyalty to our countrymen if we permitted the continued demise of one of our most hallowed institutions,” Mr. Miller said.

“For the senior leaders named, and for the thousands who were not named but who are equally complicit, I hope this [letter] is a wake-up call,” Cmdr. Green said. He went on to note that at the highest levels of military leadership, the decision-making processes are largely comprised of risk analysis and risk mitigations.

“Due to the Feres Doctrine [which prohibits service members from suing the federal government for wrongful injury or death], and the inappropriate deference paid to the Department of Defense by the legislative and judicial branches of our government, our senior leaders have rarely felt any personal risk for their decisions,” he said.

Cmdr. Green hopes the letter solidifies that “personal financial and legal risk is now part of the analysis our senior military leaders must take before deciding on policies that have implications for service members’ constitutional rights.”

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Pledging to Seek Restoration

For Mr. Miller, the letter represents “a pledge that we, the signatories, have made with one another and also to the American people, that we will not stand idly by as our military self-destructs.”

Because of their faith in God, love of country, and oath to the Constitution, he said, “We consider it our duty to lawfully resist the concerted efforts of current military leadership to destroy the institution that has been entrusted to their charge.”

Mr. Miller said the country is witnessing “the wholesale destruction, from within, of one of our oldest and most important national institutions.” For him, “It’s not that our armed forces have decided to stand by neutral as our nation faces an onslaught of threats, but has instead become one of the greatest perpetrators in attacking the cultural fabric that has kept our republic together for two and a half centuries.”

According to Mr. Miller, the U.S. military has “a unique mission: the American people expect the people to carry out violence on its behalf.” In a series of questions, he said: “How can the people trust an institution to ethically carry out its mission if it wantonly violates the law? How can the American people trust a military that has harmed its own members, and rather than acknowledge that harm, doubles down by insisting that its course was lawful, productive, and necessary?”

The signatories are demanding “unequivocal acknowledgment of the unlawful nature of the COVID-19 shot mandate” and the harm it has caused, he said. “We demand full accountability for those responsible for perpetrating this deliberate disaster on our service members, their families, and by extension the nation, [and] we demand, inasmuch as possible, complete restitution for those harmed by this criminal activity.” Without this “complete reckoning,” he said, “our military will not recover from this ongoing nightmare.”

Mr. Miller emphasized he and the others are not advocating violence. Rather, he said, “We emphatically decry the physical and moral violence that has been inflicted on service members and their families through the unlawful mandate of these harmful injections.”

“We brook no interest in circumventing the law, [but] demand strict adherence to the law,” he said. “To this very end, we will tirelessly pursue the restoration of justice to our wayward armed forces.”

Fighting for Hope

Lt. Col. Carolyn Rocco has served over 20 years in the Air Force. For her, the letter serves two purposes. First, she said it is “a promise to the American people that there are service members who understand the significance of their oath to ‘support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.’”

Having encountered people who have expressed “feelings of hopelessness for our country’s survival,” she hopes the letter will encourage Americans to “have faith that all hope has not been lost at a time when many see the steady collapse of morals, character, and justice among politicians and military leaders alike.” According to her, “courage is contagious,” and she hopes the letter motivates the people of America.

Second, Lt. Col. Rocco said, the letter is “a way to inform the military leaders that the elephant in the room—the negative effects of the COVID-19 vaccine mandate—is not going away until accountability is had.”

“While many want to sweep it under the rug and press on as if the last two years did not happen,” she said, “that is not how it’s going to go, unfortunately.” She cited the lowest recruiting numbers since the 1970s as “evidence of the disaster the DOD is in.”

Senior leaders of the military, she said, were warned about “the grave dangers a vax mandate would have on the force,” but these warnings were ignored. “Making a public proclamation might make them realize this is a serious issue that will not be ignored.”

“Trust has been broken, and moral, emotional, and physical damage has been done,” Lt. Col. Rocco said. “The tens of thousands of us who were directly impacted, as well as our communities who witnessed the atrocity known as the DOD COVID-19 vaccine mandate, are the ones who are encouraging those we love to not join the military until it returns to an institution of honor and morals and becomes apolitical once again.”

“That will not happen until a formal and public apology is made, acknowledging what was done to thousands of service members was immoral, unethical, and unlawful,” she said.

“Those of us who signed this memo have made a promise to each other, as well as to the airmen, guardians, soldiers, sailors, marines, coasties, and American people, that we will not stop fighting for truth, justice, and most of all, accountability,” she said.

Cmdr. Green and Lt. Col. Rocco emphasized that their views don’t reflect those of the Department of Defense, the Department of the Navy, or the Department of the Air Force. Officials at the Pentagon didn’t respond by press time to requests by The Epoch Times for comment.

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

As the new year kicks off, political campaigns hit top gear to keep their candidate in the race.

The early primaries and caucuses will certainly weed out struggling candidates, although the most likely major party nominees are already clear cut—President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

1. When Does Primary Season Start and End?

The first big in-person event will be Iowa’s Republican caucus, which will take place on Jan. 15, 2024.

The state’s Democratic presidential preference voting technically starts earlier, as the party has chosen to use 100 percent mail-in voting this year.

Iowa Democrats can request voting cards from Jan. 12 through Feb. 19, and completed cards must be postmarked by March 5, with the results being released later that same day, also known as “Super Tuesday.”

Iowa Democrats will hold their in-person caucuses the same day as Republicans, on Jan. 15, but they’ll conduct only local party business. It’s a compromise with the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) commitment to make South Carolina’s primary, which will be held on Feb. 3, the first in the nation.

Although the DNC wanted South Carolina’s primary to come first, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status is enshrined in its state constitution, and the state has held fast to its tradition.

Both Republicans and Democrats will hold their first primaries on Jan. 23, in New Hampshire.

A woman takes a photo at a Make America Great Again Rally with former President Donald Trump, in Manchester, N.H., on April 27, 2023. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

President Joe Biden didn’t file to appear on New Hampshire’s Democratic primary ballot—and the state’s noncompliance with the DNC will likely mean that it receives fewer delegates during its summer convention in Chicago.

Presidential primary season ends on June 8, when Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands stage their Democratic caucuses.

State primaries for other, nonpresidential, races continue through mid-September.

2. Will Trump Be on the Ballot?

Lawsuits in states across the country have challenged former President Donald Trump’s presence on GOP primary season ballots.

The lawsuits generally allege that he’s disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Passed after the Civil War, the amendment bars “insurrection[ists]” against the Constitution from taking office. It was originally meant to keep unreconstructed Confederates out of power. By 1872, Congress extended amnesty to most secessionists barred from office by the amendment with the Amnesty Act, which passed the Senate 38–2. A final amnesty bill for Confederates was enacted in 1898 during the McKinley administration.

So far, in Michigan, Arizona, and Colorado, judges have ruled that President Trump may remain on their state’s primary ballots.

Former President Donald Trump sits in the courtroom with his attorneys (L–R) Todd Blanche, Susan Necheles, Joe Tacopina, and Boris Epshteyn during his arraignment at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on April 4, 2023. (Andrew Kelly-Pool/Getty Images)

A second ruling in Colorado, on Dec. 19 by the state’s Supreme Court, overturned the lower court’s decision and in a 4–3 decision, allowed President Trump to be removed from the state’s primary ballot. The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to take up the case and settle the issue.

3. What About Democrats Other Than Biden?

Marianne Williamson, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), and other minor Democrats are working to appear on ballots alongside President Biden.

Interestingly, in the case of the first-in-the-nation primary held in New Hampshire, President Biden’s name will be absent, as he didn’t file to appear on it.

In other states, however, the Democrat Party has left Ms. Williamson, Mr. Phillips, and other Democrats off the primary ballots. The congressman is challenging those maneuvers in Florida, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Democrats in Florida have gone as far as to cancel that state’s primary in favor of choosing President Biden to win.

(Left) Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.). (Right) Democratic presidential candidate, author Marianne Williamson. (Gaelen Morse/Getty Images, Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

4. What About Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?

Mr. Kennedy is running as an independent candidate, meaning he won’t appear on Democratic or Republican primary ballots.

As of December, he’s fighting to appear on general election ballots in each state for the Nov. 5 election.

5. Will Other Seats Be Up for Grabs?

It depends on your state. Check here to see if the presidential primary or caucus in your state takes place on the same day as the state primary or caucus.

In Alabama, for example, voters pick their preferred party candidates for president as well as other federal, state, and local candidates on March 5, with a state primary runoff scheduled for April 2, if it’s needed. But in Arizona, the March 19 presidential preference election takes place months before the state primary on Aug. 6.

6. Are Caucuses Different From Primaries?

Yes. In typical caucuses, such as the Iowa Republican caucus scheduled for Jan. 15, political parties organize local events where delegates are chosen. The ultimate outcome is a set of delegates for one or more candidates. Those men and women will support those candidates at their party’s national convention in the summer of 2024.

The delegate selection process varies from state to state and across parties. In Iowa, Republicans will gather to vote at one of more than 1,600 precinct locations across the state’s 99 counties.

Primaries are more like typical elections. Voters go to a polling place and cast a secret ballot for the candidates of their choice. Primaries are organized by state governments, not by state parties.

Guests attend a fireside chat campaign event with Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Bettendorf, Iowa, on Dec. 18, 2023. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Early voting, absentee voting, and mail-in voting may also be options in these races. Notably, Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucus will be conducted with mail-in “presidential preference cards” and no in-person voting at all.

Depending on the state, primaries and caucuses may be open to voters who aren’t registered with the party for which they wish to select a candidate.

7. When Will My Primary or Caucus Take Place?

You can find the dates here. If you intend to vote, make a plan sooner rather than later. You might also have to register with a particular party to participate—although that varies from state to state.

8. Will New Hampshire Hold the 1st Primary?

Yes. Although the DNC wanted South Carolina’s primary to come first, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status is enshrined in its state constitution, and the state has held fast to its tradition.

Both Republicans and Democrats will hold their first primaries on Jan. 23, in New Hampshire. Democrats will hold their South Carolina primary on Feb. 3.

President Biden didn’t file to appear on New Hampshire’s Democratic primary ballot—and the state’s noncompliance with the DNC will likely mean that it receives fewer delegates during the party’s summer convention in Chicago.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at a rally after signing his official paperwork for the New Hampshire primary at the New Hampshire State House in Concord, N.H., on Nov. 8, 2019. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

9. Can I Vote in Both the Republican and Democrat Presidential Primaries?

No. You can choose only one candidate for the presidential primary or caucus, and depending on your state, you may have to be registered with that party to vote in that race.

10. How Can I Vote if I’m Registered Independent?

It depends on your state.

Some presidential primaries and caucuses are closed, meaning that you have to be registered with a particular party to vote in its presidential primary or caucus.

Others run the gamut from semi-closed to fully open; in the latter case, independent voters need not register with a party to participate in its primary or caucus. The Open Primaries website has a comprehensive breakdown of the rules across the country.

11. Who Is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination?

As of late December, President Trump is ahead in the polls and strongly favored, according to aggregated polling data on RealClearPolitics.

While he seems likely to win the primary, entrenched opposition from Never Trump Republicans and various legal issues could still derail his nomination.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are vying for second place in important early states, with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and others trailing behind.

(Left) Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump. (Center) Former U.N. ambassador and Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley. (Right) Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images, Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images, Scott Olson/Getty Images)

12. Who Is Likely to Win the Democrats’ Nomination?

President Biden, the incumbent, isn’t seriously threatened by any of his Democratic challengers in the polls, particularly after Mr. Kennedy switched to run as an independent candidate and not as a Democrat.

If President Biden fails to appear in the general election, it would stem from unusual but not impossible circumstances; if, for instance, illness or some other event leads him to bow out in the next few months, a brokered Democratic convention could ensue. That might elevate the likes of Vice President Kamala Harris or California Gov. Gavin Newsom to the hot seat.

13. What Happens at a Convention?

National conventions are the place where both parties develop their platforms and where major politicians deliver speeches. Most importantly, they’re where the delegates from each state and territory choose their party’s presidential candidate.

In modern times, one candidate typically racks up enough delegates during the primaries for his or her status as the nominee to be clear long before the convention.

But before the widespread adoption of presidential primaries during the late 1960s and early 1970s, conventions were often the scene of long, drawn-out battles among different political factions. In 1924, it took the Democrats 103 ballots to choose their nominee, John W. Davis.

The upcoming Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee in July 2024. The Democratic National Convention will take place a few weeks later, in August, about 100 miles south, in Chicago.

14. What Is a Brokered Convention?

A brokered convention is one in which one candidate fails to command a majority of delegates during the first vote, or ballot.

It opens up the prospect of additional ballots and, in the case of the Democratic National Convention, participation by super delegates.

Brokered conventions weren’t uncommon before the era of mass primaries, but the last that occurred was in 1952, when Republicans and Democrats alike took multiple votes to select as their nominees Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson II, respectively.

Sen. Richard Nixon (2ndL), Dwight D. Eisenhower (2ndR), and their wives attend the Republican National Convention in Chicago, on July 12, 1952. (I/AFP via Getty Images)

15. What Happens on Super Tuesday?

Super Tuesday will occur on March 5, 2024.

Super Tuesday can make a big positive (or negative) difference for campaigns, as many states and territories hold caucuses and primaries that day, meaning that many delegates are off the table afterward. In 2020, it elevated the position of then-former Vice President Biden. In 2016, then-candidate Trump won by a large margin on Super Tuesday, taking seven out of 11 states.

States and territories holding elections on Super Tuesday include: Alabama, Alaska Republican presidential caucuses, American Samoa presidential caucuses, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa Democratic caucus mail vote, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah Democratic presidential primary, and Republican presidential caucuses in Vermont and Virginia.

A voting sign sits outside the Burlington Electric Department in Burlington, Vt., on March 2, 2020. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

16. What Are Delegates?

Delegates are people who are sent to a political party’s national convention to help select a nominee on behalf of their party’s primary voters.

Some delegates have to support particular candidates based on the outcomes of primary or caucus elections. Others aren’t tied to specific candidates prior to the convention.

Depending on the state, Republican primaries and caucuses can award delegates proportionally, through a winner-take-all formula, or through some other approach, which can be complicated.

Minimum and maximum voting thresholds also enter the picture in many states. In Texas, for example, candidates must get at least 20 percent of the vote to get any delegates—and if a candidate gets 50 percent or more of the vote, he or she takes all of the state’s delegates.

Democrats must meet a 15 percent threshold to get delegates, although depending on the contest, it may apply to a congressional district rather than the state as a whole.

17. What Are Super Delegates?

They’re delegates that aren’t pledged to a specific candidate when they arrive at their party’s national convention; they’re also called unbound delegates by Republicans.

While super delegates have historically played a critical role in the Democratic presidential nomination process, their overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at the 2016 Democratic Convention made them a point of contention in recent times. Pledged delegates also favored Ms. Clinton, though by a much narrower margin.

Although Democrats have retained super delegates to this day, reforms passed in 2018 have excluded them from the first ballot. They would now only come into play in the event of a brokered convention.

On the Republican side, fewer than 5 percent of delegates will be unbound at the GOP’s national convention in Milwaukee.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) acknowledges the crowd before delivering remarks at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 25, 2016. (Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images)

18. How Many Delegates Does a Candidate Need to Win?

They need support from most of the delegates at the convention. Again, one candidate typically commands a large majority prior to the end of the primary season.

The Green Papers estimates that the winning Republican candidate will need roughly 1,215 delegates out of 2,429 total delegates.

The same website estimates that the Democrat candidate will require 1,973 delegates during a first ballot. That doesn’t count unpledged Democratic delegates, who would come into play in any subsequent ballots. All told, there are expected to be a total of 4,691 Democratic delegates, far more than the estimated 2,429 total Republican delegates.

19. Where Do I Vote?

It could differ from your regular polling place.

You can usually find the answer on the website of the party of your preferred candidate, or on your state’s Secretary of State elections website. Here’s where you can find it for New Hampshire, for example.

If you can’t make it to the caucus site or primary polling place, you might be able to participate through early in-person voting or mail-in voting, or by casting an absentee ballot.

Check the specific rules for your primary or caucus to see what options are available where you vote.

20. Can Democrats Vote in Republican Primaries and Vice Versa?

In some states, yes; in others, no.

In states with fully open presidential primaries, people don’t have to choose a candidate from the same party under which they registered to vote. That means, for example, a registered Democrat, independent, or unaffiliated voter can vote for a Republican candidate in the primary.

Voters cast their ballots at an elementary school during the U.S. midterm election in Midlothian, Va., on Nov. 8, 2022. (Ryan M. Kelly/AFP via Getty Images)

Other states’ contests are partially open or partially closed, imposing greater restrictions on voters.

Some states hold closed primaries, which limit a voter to choosing a candidate within the same party under which they’re registered to vote. Of course, registered members of a particular party can always vote for a candidate from a different party in the November general election.

Confusingly, the rules for state primaries can differ from those of presidential primaries within the same state. The National Conference of State Legislatures website breaks it down.

21. Can I Vote in the General Election If I Skipped the Primaries?

Yes.

22. Are Caucuses or Primaries Ever Contested or Controversial?

Yes. The 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus was famously chaotic, with results delayed by days as multiple campaigns challenged results in various precincts. Mr. Sanders edged out his rivals in the popular vote, but Pete Buttigieg came out ahead in state delegate equivalents.

The Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank, dubbed the caucus a “tragedy.”

Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg speaks during a rally in Oelwein, Iowa, on Feb. 1, 2020. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

23. Do I Need to Be Registered to Vote in the Primary or Caucus?

Generally, yes, but it varies. Some states, including Illinois, permit same-day registration for primary voters, while North Dakota doesn’t require voter registration.

The National Conference of State Legislatures website outlines same-day voter registration law state by state.

24. Am I Allowed to Vote in 1 State’s Primary and Another’s General?

If you move in between, it’s possible, but it also depends on the rules in your state(s) and when you move. Out-of-state college students with dual residency across multiple states might be expected to exercise this option—for example, if they don’t register in the state where they’re going to school until after their home state’s primary or caucus.

25. Could Newsom Be the Democratic Nominee?

California’s Democratic governor won’t be on any primary or caucus ballots. Mr. Newsom has repeatedly emphasized that he isn’t running for president, telling Mr. DeSantis during their recent debate that “neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024.”

While that declaration would seem to rule him out, others have noted that there are other avenues open to the well-connected wine merchant. Specifically, as analyst Chuck DeVore told The Epoch Times in November, if President Biden leaves the field before Election Day, Mr. Newsom could win through a brokered Democratic convention in summer 2024.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a campaign event with Vice President Kamala Harris in San Leandro, Calif., on Sept. 8, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

26. Will There Be Any More Debates?

Yes. CNN will host a Republican presidential debate in Iowa on Jan. 10, just days ahead of the Jan. 15 GOP caucus. The network will hold another Republican presidential debate ahead of the New Hampshire primary, which takes place on Jan. 23.

In keeping with his absence from the first four debates, there’s no sign that President Trump will participate.

After the primaries, there are three presidential debates scheduled and one vice presidential debate, with the first one on Sept. 16 and the last on Oct. 9.

27. Do Other Countries Have Primaries?

Yes, many countries do, although there’s great variation from place to place; for example, some primaries are organized by political parties, while others are held by the state.

Countries ranging from South Korea to Poland to Canada hold primaries or primary-like elections.

28. Can Primaries and Caucuses Be Canceled?

Yes. Florida, for example, has canceled its Democratic primary after omitting all names but President Biden’s from its proposed ballot. The situation isn’t without precedent from both major parties.

In 2020, multiple states canceled their Republican primaries or caucuses in the midst of President Trump’s reelection campaign. The same thing happened with several Democratic primaries in 2012, when then-President Barack Obama was seeking reelection.

29. Could Trump’s Legal Trials Make a Difference?

Not so far, but it’s hard to say for sure. The events now unfolding are unprecedented in the history of U.S. presidential contests, so it’s difficult to predict.

So far, President Trump has mostly withstood attempts to remove him from primary season ballots on 14th Amendment grounds.

If there are any major rulings in his criminal trials before the Republican National Convention in July, that could complicate things, particularly if unbound GOP delegates are marshaled against the former president following a close primary season, or if other delegates revolt against him after the first ballot at the convention.

Former president Donald Trump arrives at the courtroom at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on April 4, 2023. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)

30. When Is a Winner Likely to Emerge During the GOP Primaries?

President Trump’s strong lead over his rivals means that support could crystalize earlier rather than later. In 2016, the future president became his party’s presumptive nominee by early May after he won Indiana’s Republican primary and his chief rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), dropped out.

This time, as of mid-December, the president is far ahead of his competitors in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada in polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics.

31. What’s Happening With the Nevada GOP Primary?

The state will hold both a state-organized Republican primary and a caucus organized by the Nevada Republican Party. Most, but not all, big-name Republican candidates are boycotting that primary, which takes place on Feb. 6, in favor of the caucus, which takes place on Feb. 8.

The caucus has been, up until recently, a decades-old tradition in the Silver State. But Nevada’s Democrat-controlled state Legislature adopted a primary system after the 2020 election. The state’s Republican Party filed a lawsuit against the state to retain its caucus.

Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar said his state is required to hold a primary once two candidates register for it. By October, two Republicans had registered. Ms. Haley opted for the primary ballot, along with several little-known candidates.

“Candidates that chose to appear on the state-run primary ballot did so knowing that decision meant they could not earn delegates by appearing on the caucus ballots,” the state GOP website states.

President Trump, Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Ramaswamy, Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are on the caucus ballot.

Nevada will also hold a Democratic presidential primary on Feb. 8.

Turkey has busted up what it says is a major Israeli spy plot on its soil, having arrested 34 suspects on Wednesday, alleged to have been plotting attacks on foreigners in Turkey, namely Hamas operatives.

In total 46 arrest warrants were issued, with the Chief Prosecutor’s Office in Istanbul says ongoing efforts are underway to capture the remain suspects at large. The are all suspected of conducing espionage activities specifically on behalf of the Mossad intelligence agency.

According to statements in Turkish media, “The investigation found that Israeli intelligence was behind activities targeting foreigners residing in Türkiye, from reconnaissance to assaults and abduction attempts.”

However, “No other details are available regarding the investigation, but Mossad was implicated in the past in investigations about attempts to kidnap Palestinians living in Türkiye.”

Indeed Hamas operatives and some of the group’s leadership have long been known to hide out and conduct business in Turkey. Israel has recently vowed to pursued the group’s leadership abroad, possibly in a Munich-style assassination campaign.

In early December, Turkish Intelligence warned of “serious consequences” if Israeli agents try to seek Hamas members abroad, or especially on Turkish soil. This had been in response to provocative words issued by Ronen Bar, head of Israel’s domestic security agency Shin Bet. He had said at the time, “The cabinet has set us a goal, in street talk, to eliminate Hamas. This is our Munich. We will do this everywhere, in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar.” 

Since then, Israel-Turkey relations have deteriorated, almost to the point of complete breakage in official diplomatic relations. President Erdogan has even recently liked his Israeli counterpart PM Netanyahu to Hitler. 

As for this current ‘spy round-up’ – Turkish authorities say hundreds of thousands in cash has already been recovered, as well as weapons and munitions: 

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya shared a video of operations jointly carried out by police and the National Intelligence Organization (MIT). On a social media post, Yerlikaya said an investigation into international espionage activities led to the operations. “We will not allow espionage targeting our national unity,” Yerlikaya said. The minister said authorities discovered more than 143,000 euros ($157,300) and more than $23,000 in the possession of suspects, along with one pistol and a large amount of munitions.

But in this atmosphere of weekly tit-for-tat denunciations and angry diplomatic displays between Israel and Turkey, it’s also easy to imagine that the arrest of 34 “Mossad spies” is all an exaggerated or even wholly fabricated event being choreographed by Ankara to generate headlines and further trash Israel’s reputation.

#Turkey Hundreds of thousands of people participate in a march in Istanbul, in support of Palestinians amid Israel’s attacks on besieged #Gaza.

”Killer Israel, get out of Palestine,” “Our blood, our lives sacrificed for Al Aqsa,” and “Greetings to Hamas”pic.twitter.com/jb7PDXBP94

— WORLD AT WAR (@World_At_War_6) January 1, 2024

Turkey arresting what are alleged to be Israeli spies and putting them on trial has been somewhat of a recurring event, going back to well before the current Gaza war. A senior Turkish intelligence officer warned on Monday, “In line with our earlier warning that any attempt to operate illegally in Turkey would have grave consequences, we discourage all relevant parties from engaging in similar activities.”

Authored by Bob Bishop via AmericanThinker.com,

The 2021 National Defense Authorization Act created the Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) reporting rule to ostensibly target money laundering.

Beginning January 1, 2024, the Act mandates U.S. companies, regardless of size, to register their beneficial and controlling owners with the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). FinCEN claims the corporate ownership database will be used exclusively to identify anonymous shell companies involved in money laundering and terrorist activities. Once again, like the Patriot Act, it grants surveillance powers violating the Constitution. There is no provision for judicial oversight to protect individual rights as if that ever mattered.

Reporting requirements apply to an estimated 33 million reporting companies defined as corporations, limited liability corporations, or similar entities. There are twenty-three categories of companies that are exempt from reporting. They are nonprofits, banks, insurance companies, investment funds, public companies, broker-dealers, public accounting firms, money-transmitting businesses, and existing shell companies with no foreign owners, assets, or active businesses.

The main scope is Main Street businesses like small owner-operated businesses like restaurateurs, construction trades, professional service organizations, retailers, and other privately owned businesses. Reporting requirements take effect in 2024 for newly-formed entities and on January 1, 2025, for existing entities.

The law imposes its heaviest burdens on law-abiding U.S. citizens. At the same time, criminal enterprises will not report, manipulate, or avoid disclosure requirements undermining the law. This is similar to municipal gun control restrictions; criminals just ignore the law. The FinCEN database will be composed of law-abiding companies.

Reporting Requirements

“Beneficial owner” is defined as “an individual who, directly or indirectly, through any contract, arrangement, understanding, relationship, or otherwise exercises substantial control over the entity” or “owns or controls not less than 25 percent of the ownership interests of the entity.” For each of the covered individuals, the reporting company must furnish to FinCEN their full legal name, birth date, current residential or business street address, IRS Taxpayer Identification Number, and “unique identifying number from an acceptable identification document,” such as an unexpired passport or a state-issued identification card or driver’s license. Any changes in a covered individual’s address, a new driver’s license, or beneficial ownership must be reported.

Reporting companies that deliberately fail to comply with the reporting requirements are subject to a civil penalty of up to $500 per day, up to $10,000, two years’ imprisonment, or both a fine and confinement. An interesting dilemma is whether all beneficial owners will be assessed civil and criminal penalties. Will BOI or the IRS require banks to freeze the corporate entity’s account without due process?

The IRS agent staff is expanding, and it will have the muscle to take advantage of BOI’s corporate ownership database for targeted investigations and audits with the possibility of targeting political opposition. If you think I’m kidding; keep in mind the IRS targeted and relentlessly audited directors and officers of Tea Party nonprofits only because they were considered dissenters. BOI will be a tool of tyranny.

Will the Biden family crime syndicate comply by filing on its twenty-plus LLCs, which have no specific business interests?

FinCEN may share the reporting companies’ reported personal data with federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies and foreign governments with U.S. treaties. Also, financial institutions will use the corporate ownership database for customer due diligence provided the reporting company consents. We can anticipate financial institutions requiring mandatory access to do business.

BIO is a dragnet using suspicionless searches and compelled disclosures to look for potential financial crimes, which violates privacy. State entity formations don’t require disclosure of beneficial ownership, which provides privacy and prevents intrusion from the Federal government. Privacy is one of the most significant benefits of incorporation in Delaware. BOI is an unconstitutional usurping of a state’s power to charter and regulate an entity.

The release of personal data to various federal agencies without the consent of the reporting company is an unreasonable search and seizure violation of the Fourth Amendment. Compelling reporting is also self-incrimination and a violation of the Fifth Amendment, and an invasion of the right to privacy violates the Ninth Amendment. Further, BOI violates the First Amendment’s right to free speech and private association. BOI is unconstitutional.

*  *  *

Bob Bishop is a forensic investigator and retired CPA.

The Ukrainian capital of Kiev was pounded by Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles on Tuesday morning, in a massive series of strikes which also targeted other cities, resulting in a reported death toll of at least five people killed and some 130 others injured.

The day prior, Russian President Vladimir Putin had vowed to “intensify” strikes against Ukraine in retaliation for the major Saturday cross-border attack on Belgorod, which killed at least 24 Russians, including children.

Later in the day Tuesday the scale of the attack on Kiev has come to light, showing that the Kremlin is clearly trying to send a ‘message’. The New York Times writes that “The barrage — which the Ukrainian Air Force said involved about 100 missiles, including hypersonic weapons that fly at several times the speed of sound — was the latest in an escalating cycle of air assaults between the two countries, as both sides look for ways to inflict damage away from the largely deadlocked front line.”

Ukrainian Armed Forces commanader Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, said the army was able to successfully intercept about three-quarters of the Russian barrage. He claimed that all ten hypersonic missiles were destroyed with the assistance of Western-delivered Patriot missile batteries. Increasingly, Ukraine has been reliant on US-supplied anti-air systems, and has been begging to urgently receive more, even as it faces a troop manpower crisis.

The northeastern Kharkiv region was also targeted in the Tuesday morning attack. The oblast’s capital of Kharkiv city sits just south of Russia’s Belgorod. Within hours later, Ukraine launched a retaliatory attack of at least eight missiles on Belgorov. Regional media says one Russian civilian was killed and four others injured, citing the local governor.

#Kyiv had a rough morning as a result of #Russian response to #Belgorod bombing ordered by #Zelensky pic.twitter.com/pnkHCsOvNo

— Arthur Morgan (@ArthurM40330824) January 2, 2024

All of this points to a dramatic and deadly escalation in the air war between the two sides as civilians pay the price. This as the front lines has remained somewhat stalemated, with Russia apparently content to solidify its military hold over the bulk of the four annexed territories in the east and south.

The Tuesday strikes on Kiev included tragic scenes like the following, according to the AP:

At a nine-story Kyiv apartment building where two people were killed, 48-year-old Inna Luhina was getting ready for work when a blast shattered her windows and she and other family members, including her 80-year-old mother, were struck by flying glass.

More than 100 survivors gathered at a school set up as a temporary shelter.

Currently, Ukraine is in possession of advanced Western weaponry, including medium to long-range missiles and Patriot batteries, and yet is woefully lacking in frontline ammunition, including artillery shells, but also manpower. 

🤬 Over the past 5 days, the Russian Federation has launched at least 500 missiles and UAVs over Ukraine, — Zelenskyi in a conversation with the Prime Minister of Britain.

The video shows a Russian cruise missile over Kyiv this morning. pic.twitter.com/YTdvlzO8un

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) January 2, 2024

This state of things could lead to increasing desperation. This could mean many more instances of risky cross-border Ukrainian attacks on Russia which ensures an escalation of the air war.

A missile “dud” falling into the water has been widely circulating on social media…

🇷🇺🇺🇦 – Regarding the video of an object falling in the water in Kiev, NO it was not a Kinzhal.

Judging by the plumage, it looks like an old IRIS-T rocket made in Germany.

It launched, missed, burned the fuel and just fell back. It didn’t even self-destruct.

TG: @PravdaShuravi pic.twitter.com/LXvMJTdkCz

— il libanese (@Ramy_Sawma) January 2, 2024

Ukraine’s upping its cross-border attacks on Russian territory might also be part of a last-ditch strategy to increase political pressure on Putin from within, but in the meantime the Kremlin is sure to respond harder by pummeling places like Kiev. Civilians on both sides will suffer as a result.

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

If the amorality of illegal immigration were not so deleterious to Americans, its absurdity would be laughable…

There have been more than 8 million illegal entries into the United States since Joe Biden was elected president. He appointed Alejandro Mayorkas as Secretary of Homeland Security, whose apparent prime directive was to destroy the southern border.

That task is precisely what Mayorkas has now accomplished. The result is that the border is neither “porous” nor “problematic,” but nonexistent, kaput, vanished—and by design.

In one of the most surreal experiences in the history of the United States, each night Americans see video clips of thousands of foreign nationals crossing the border en masse with complete impunity—as if the entire corpus of federal immigration law has been dynamited.

But by whom? And why?

As millions of citizens watch this travesty, they hear only from Mayorkas, Biden, and his Pravda megaphone, Karin Jean-Pierre, that the border is “secure”—a Baghdad Bob narrative that they know that we know is an utter lie.

Surely, this deliberate effort to destroy an entire border, to invite in millions of unchecked illegal aliens, and to violate oaths to execute faithfully the laws of the land are impeachable offenses for both Biden and Mayorkas. If not, what are?

Stranger still, Americans have no real idea why these revolutionaries are destroying our border.

Are they nineteenth-century anarchists who want to undermine the United States itself? Are they cynical “Demography is Destiny” and “The New Democratic Majority” leftists who need new dependent Democrat constituents to find votes for agendas that most Americans reject?

Do they want to create billions of dollars in new entitlements and subsidies to grow government, hike taxes, and make the upper middle class pay, as Biden puts it, “their fair share?”

Whatever the cause of this nihilism, there are at least 10 ways their open border is insidiously destroying the United States.

Legal immigration

Does legal immigration still exist? Are we still requiring those who would enter the U.S. legally to provide required documents, undergo audits, and complete background checks?

Is not the current policy de facto punishing those who follow the law by tying them up in bureaucratic red tape for years as we reward unlawful behavior by greenlighting amnesties for lawbreakers?

Is the Biden administration’s policy designed to deflect those from South Korea with MDs, or from Mumbai with PhDs, or from Taiwan with MBAs, by putting their applications on a slow, second-track pathway? Is DEI at work in the sense that America does not want here the accomplished who earned degrees and possess vital skills, as if they are thereby condemned as “privileged?”

Does Biden realize that his legacy of inviting in “surging” millions, in contradiction of the law, will soon erode all support for immigration, legal or otherwise?

Lawless US

Does the utter lawlessness at the border contribute to the general coarseness and current mockery of the rule of law in general—an epidemic that plagues our cities with homelessness, smash-and-grabs, car-jackings, and random assaults?

Is the rationale that if you can walk freely past border security guards, who cares whether you ignore a summons, throw away a traffic ticket, or skip reporting some income?

Dependency

If the first thing a foreign national does is to violate the law by crossing the border without permission, and the second is to reside illegally in the US, and the third is to apply for some sort of food, housing, medical, legal, or educational subsidy, then is that really the type of new resident we desire?

Apparently, what the United States does not want is the immigration model of old, one in which immigrants applied legally, came here lawfully through authorized ports of entry, and were self-supporting upon arrival.

In other words, it may be hard to shake from Biden’s likely 10 million illegal aliens their initial assumption that, 1) in America, the laws do not apply to them and, 2) their new naïve or guilt-ridden hosts, not themselves, are responsible for their welfare.

Cui Bono?

We suspect the Left and employers welcome illegal immigrants; the more en masse and without audit, the better.

But how do millions simply leave their homes, cross international borders, and get waved on to El Norte? What is the mentality of Mexico that facilitates this mass exodus northward from its neighbors and from itself?

Is Mexico a frenemy?

Do we even care that some $60 billion leaves the U.S. as remittances into Mexico, mostly by illegal residents here who are on state and local subsidies to free up their billions of dollars to support people inside Mexico that Mexico City has no intention of helping?

Is such a gargantuan cash outflow, then, Mexican socialist President Obrador’s cynical idea of payback for supposed historical Yanqui sins? Does he think a new, huge expatriate community will continue to lobby for Mexico to do what it pleases on our side of the border? Does illegal immigration warp U.S. foreign policy itself?

Cartels

Does anyone worry that among the millions moving northward are hundreds of Mexican cartel functionaries loaded with tens of thousands of pounds of dangerous drugs, fentanyl most prominently?

Do we even care that the U.S. is enriching the cartels through its tolerance of drug importation and alien smuggling? With open borders, are we not abetting the annual 100,000 or so deaths of Americans through overdoses, often by the counterfeiting of fentanyl to resemble less toxic illicit drugs and prescription tranquilizers, sedatives, and painkillers?

Is there any other enemy in the world—Russia, China, or Iran—that has helped kill more Americans than the cartels, along with the culpable Mexican government that deflects cartel criminality and violence northward?

Trashing Citizens

Illegal immigration is insidiously diminishing citizenship by equating illegal aliens with, if not making them preferable to, American citizens. Is there anything an illegal alien cannot do in Biden’s America—work in a campaign, vote in some elections, serve in the military, receive government subsidies? Crisscross international borders without a passport?

To put it another way, why did we expel 8,400 US military personnel for the “crime” of passing on the required but experimental mRNA vaccinations (most of the discharged had natural immunity from prior COVID infections), while we let in millions of foreigners without worrying whether any have been vaccinated for anything, much less have had COVID tests?

Why are we forcing every American to recalibrate, at great expense, their identification to a “Real ID” to ensure security within our airline industry while putting tens of thousands of illegal aliens, without any documents, on flights throughout the country?

Does the Biden administration policy translate into something like, ‘We know and therefore don’t trust Americans, so we must apply airline boarding standards to them that we certainly do not need with more reliable and trustworthy illegal and unaudited aliens?’

Why, in bankrupt cities like New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles, where social services are overwhelmed with thousands of needy citizens, are we imploding such facilities with influxes of illegal aliens?

Do we prefer the latter to the former? Does the Biden administration’s message again read something like, ‘We care more about the health status of those south of the border than our own citizen poor in our own inner cities, so please surge on up?’

Who Pays?

At $34 trillion in debt, and with budget deficits normalizing at near $2 trillion a year, where does America find the hundreds of billions, if not eventually trillions of dollars, to welcome in millions of the unaudited—all in need of immediate no-questions-asked entitlements, and for some years on end?

Is California the model, where currently an estimated half of all illegal aliens reside and 27 percent of the resident population was not born in the U.S.?

California, while experiencing hundreds of thousands of new illegal entries and a $70 billion annual budget deficit, just extended free health care services to non-citizens who entered unlawfully. More than half of the state’s births are already paid for through Med-Cal. One-third of Americans living on assistance live in California. A fifth of the population struggles below the poverty line while the state runs up a $70 billion annual deficit with the nation’s highest income taxes and gas taxes and among the highest sales taxes.

No wonder over a quarter-million upper-middle-class taxpayers flee the state each year, unable to endure a 13.3% non-deductible, top state income tax rate on top of the 37% of their income that goes to the IRS.

No wonder there is a catastrophic current 25% drop in California income tax revenues when a single 1% of households pays 50% of all state income taxes—and is stampeding out of state. Is Governor Newsom federalizing California, or spreading the idea that far too privileged Americans owe the poor of the world massive subsidies as a reward for breaking their laws in coming here?

Ending Deterrence?

There are many reasons why foreign thugs are testing the United States—Putin in Ukraine, the Chinese with a spy balloon over our native soil, Hamas by murdering Israelis, Iran’s satellites by rocketing our military installations and ships abroad.

No doubt our woke, manpower-short military that fled from Kabul, leaving a multibillion-dollar trove of weapons, has lost the ability to deter opportunistic belligerents.

The Biden administration’s obsequious courting of Iran, contextualizing Chinese aggression, and announcing our reaction to a Russian invasion of Ukraine would hinge on whether it was “minor” have all eroded deterrence. Now, in circular fashion, President Obrador no longer fears any reaction to millions from his country swarming into the United States, as he had in the past when Trump pressured him to control his side of the border. That he helped to blow up the border with impunity also, in turn, reminds aggressors abroad that a nation too afraid to protect its own sovereignty can hardly defend that of its allies.

The DEI Narrative

We, the hosts, no longer believe in the melting pot. Instead, cultural Marxists divide America into the automatically victimized, by nature of their nonwhite status, versus the victimizers defined by whatever “white” is conveniently classified at the moment.

Class, history, and individual merit matter not so much in this 24/7 effort to reduce everyone to either oppressed or oppressor.

Under this racist binary, 99 percent of illegal aliens—who will be instantly categorized as the so-called nonwhite—will enter the U.S. with innate claims against the majority. Thus, they will become instantly eligible for everything from affirmative action preferences in hiring and admissions (the Supreme Court ruling will be a minor inconvenience for the Left, in the manner of the easily ignored California Prop 209) to race-based targeted equity programs and subsidies.

And the message we send to the illegal immigrant? Certainly not unity, integration, and assimilation. Instead, we emphasize ethnic, racial, religious, and linguistic differences and fuel such divides. Such separatism pays cultural, social, and economic dividends in such a way that assimilation and integration earn rebuke, if not ridicule.

Cruel Irony?

The woke Left defines America as incurably racist. So how could the nonwhite in the millions possibly flee their home countries, where they compose a majority of the population, only to seek out the one country in the world where they are told toxic “white privilege” is unsurpassed?

Did the millions swarming the Rio Grande not listen to the horror stories of Ilhan Omar or Rashida Tlaib? Do they not read the warnings of systemic this and that from Professor Kendi? Have they been briefed on endemic something by Ta-Nehisi Coates? Are they unaware of the messaging from BLM and Antifa? Were they not warned by President Obrador of the Inferno waiting ahead to the north?

None of the millions apparently wished to be diverted to a quite diverse India, or China, a land of mandated equity, or the inclusionary lands of the homogenously Islamic Middle East.

If the amorality of illegal immigration were not so deleterious to Americans, its absurdity would be laughable.

Weaker than expected construction spending data and a dismal (final) Manufacturing PMI print for December suggested 2024 is not off to the ‘goldilocks’ start so many hoped for.

However, despite the ‘weak’ data, Treasury yields were higher and the dollar stronger.

Treasury yields were up across the board with the short-end underperforming (2Y +9bps, 30Y +5bps). Yields gapped higher to open and then traded in a narrow range from the European open…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield gapped up to three-week-highs, hovering at the post-FOMC plunge levels…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ripped higher to start 2024 – its biggest daily gain since March 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Mega-Cap stocks took a beating (not helped by AAPL downgrade), erasing all of December’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL tumbled to near two-month lows…

Semis suffered their biggest daily drop since Dec 2022…

…and that dragged Nasdaq down to its biggest drop in over two months, underperforming the rest of the US Majors. A late-day mini-melt-up added a little lipstick to this pig and The Dow was the least ugly horse in today’s glue factory…

Dow futures perfectly roundtripped to Friday’s cash close levels today…

Major u-turn in ‘most shorted’ stocks too today. Gap down open immediately squeezed higher, only to rapidly give it all back after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin broke-out today above the early December highs to its highest since April 2022, coming within a few ticks of $46,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also rallied on the day, above $2400 intraday, but underperformed Bitcoin, dragging ETH/BTC down

Source: Bloomberg

The strength of the dollar weighed on gold which ended down only modestly on the day (after losing overnight gains)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, perhaps the most notable move today was in the energy patch.

Oil prices surged overnight amid growing tensions in the MidEast but then, at around 9amET, WTI was unceremoniously dumped as if any war/geopl risk premium was entirely worthless. And then it legged down again despite headlines that Israel had killed a senior Hamas official in Beirut (potentially drawing Iran even more explicitly into the melee)…

Finally, President Biden’s stock market performance continues to lag that of President Trump’s…

Source: Bloomberg

…but just you wait until March or April when the Biden admin will crow at their outperformance (compared to Trump’s COVID collapse)

Investors are back at ‘Extreme Greed’ levels…

Source

Doesn’t look good for Santa-Rally support… and for the last five years, as goes the first 5 trading days, so goes the year…

Source: Bloomberg

With 150bps of rate-cuts priced in for 2024, there is not much room for error.