Dismal, Tailing 10Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand Since Jan 2025 As Yields Soar

With 30Y yields trading on the wrong side of 5% today, all eyes were on today’s 10Y refunding auction to see if it would be ugly enough to push yields to 4.50% or higher. Here is what happened.

Just after 1pm, the Treasury announced that the high yield on today’s sale of $42 billion in 10Y paper was 4.468%, the highest yield since Jan 2025, and a 0.4bps tail to the When Issued 4.464%, the 4th consecutive tail for benchmark 10Y auctions.

The bid to cover was 2.402, down from 4.249 and the lowest since February (below the six auction average of 2.47).

Internals were also weaker, with foreign bidders awarded just 63.95%, down from 65.32% a month ago and the lowest since Jan 2025, and a far worse than the recent average of 68.5%. And with Directs taking 24.1%, the highest since Jan 26, Dealers were left holding 12.0%, slightly higher than the 10.3% recent average.

Overall, this was a very poor, tailing auction, and the only reason bonds yields are not much higher is because they were already very high to begin with, highest since July 2025 to be precise. However, the lack of demand suggests that the next move in yields is likely to be even higher, the only question being where will it stop…