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Authored by former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner viaThe Hill.com,

My grandmother used to say, “You can put truth in the river five days after a lie; truth is gone catch up.”

Well, here’s the truth: The working men and women of this country are working more jobs and more hours, and they’re still barely hanging on. Beneath those fingertips, they can feel that middle-class dream – the American dream – slipping right away from them. It’s time for President Trump to do something about it.

I come from Ohio. It’s where I was born, and it’s where my roots run deep. We are humble, proud and hard-working people who’ve been battered by the twin storms of globalization and greed.

This past weekend, I was in another state full of humble, proud, and hard-working people; I marched with workers from the Nissan plant in Canton, Miss.

For decades, manufacturing provided millions of Ohioans and Mississippians a solid roadway to the middle class. A family breadwinner could work full time and earn enough money to buy a home, put the kids through college, and enjoy a secure retirement.

But today, 600,000 American manufacturing workers make less than $9.60 per hour – barely more than they could earn at a fast food joint. And their real wages dropped nearly 4.5 percent from 2003 to 2013. They are barely hanging on.

We marched in Canton because Nissan isn’t giving its workers the dignity and respect they earn every single day along that assembly line. They are furloughed for the equivalent of months throughout the year, killing plans for homeownership. They don’t have a predictable schedule, putting college tuition for their kids out of reach. They’ve even had their pensions frozen, making dreams of retirement seem more like a cruel joke than an attainable goal.

And that’s just the full-time workers. Nissan uses a temp company, Kelly Services, to fill almost half the jobs at the plant. Temp workers there receive $12 an hour plus the promise that after a certain time, they’ll become full Nissan employees. But many of them languish for years.

To make matters worse, this poverty-wage business model is paid for by our tax dollars. In fact, Nissan and Kelly Services have scooped up more than $3 billion in federal contracts and loans. That means our government is helping keep American factory workers in poverty jobs while corporate executives get to pocket billions in profits.

This isn’t just happening in Canton. Right now, the U.S. government is America’s No. 1 low-wage job creator, funding more than 2 million poverty jobs across the country through contracts, loans and grants with private corporations. That’s more than McDonald’s and Wal-Mart combined. And when federal contractors like Nissan and Kelly Services illegally violate the rights of their workers to organize, they’re passing poverty from generation to generation.

So you can understand why Ohioans and Mississippians sat up and listened when Donald Trump promised that he would bring manufacturing back; that he would create more jobs and better wages. Everyday Americans took him at his word. And now it’s time to hold him accountable.

It’s time for President Trump to guarantee that the only companies doing business with the federal government are the ones that pay living wages, provide safe work environments and benefits, and don’t fight their workers when they want to form a union.

We know that he can do this, because he’s done it before. Workers at the Trump International Hotel – a federally owned property – were allowed to form a union shortly after President Trump was elected. It’s time to demand that other federal contractors do the same thing.

Grandma was right. The truth always does catch up. And the truth of the matter is this: President Trump made us a promise.

It’s a promise that we all need to ensure that he keeps – for our workers, for our families and for the future we all share.

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Disaffected liberals not willing to pay taxes to a government run by Donald Trump?  Families just so flush with cash that they don’t need those tax refunds this year?   Americans just getting lazier?

Whatever the reason, Americans are simply not filing their taxes in 2017.  As the Internal Revenue Service recently reported, we’re now officially halfway through the 2017 tax filing season and nearly 6 million fewer people have filed their returns than at the same point in 2016, that’s an 8.5% decline.  Meanwhile, average refunds are actually up 0.8% but that doesn’t seem to matter all that much.

 

As Bloomberg points out, this has been a consistent trend throughout the 2017 tax season.

 

Meanwhile, there are several potential reasons why Americans may not be filing their taxes this year:

Simple Procrastination

“Customers waiting longer to file their returns is a trend we have observed for the last four years, although it’s more pronounced this year,” said Sanjay Baskaran, president of online tax preparer TaxAct.

 

More and more people who used to file in January and February are waiting until the last minute. Last year, IRS data on April 15—the traditional tax deadline—showed individual filings running 5.8 percent behind the previous year. But the deadline was April 18 in 2016, which gave taxpayers an additional three days to file. In the week following April 15, a whopping 12 million tax returns came in, and filings ended up 1.7 percent higher than in the previous year.

It’s Donald Trump’s Fault

The political rhetoric of President Donald Trump may be scaring some taxpayers. With the Republican promising to crack down on illegal immigration, undocumented immigrants may be afraid to create a paper trail with the government by claiming tax refunds.

 

John Hewitt, chairman and chief executive of Liberty Tax, raised the possibility in a call with analysts March 8. Undocumented immigrants often use individual taxpayer identification numbers (ITINs) rather than Social Security numbers to file. “Those ITIN filers are filing at a reduced level this year,” Hewitt said. They’re “probably fearful of the Trump initiatives.”

 

It’s also possible that the overall political atmosphere could be affecting filing. The Trump administration is enforcing the health insurance mandate differently this tax season, while Congress moves quickly to gut the Affordable Care Act, and Trump has promised massive tax cuts. Although no tax code changes would affect what you currently owe, Julie Miller, a spokeswoman for TurboTax owner Intuit Inc., speculated that “there could just be confusion, or [people are] waiting for the dust to settle.”

Delayed Refunds

In an effort to crack down on fraud, Congress passed the PATH Act 1 , which requires the IRS to increase scrutiny of certain tax credits often claimed by low-income households. As a result, the agency warned it wouldn’t issue refunds this year until Feb. 15 for the millions of returns claiming the earned income tax credit or the additional child tax credit.

 

That delay could be a big factor affecting millions of taxpayers who haven’t filed yet, several analysts and tax company executives said. While issues with undocumented immigrant returns may be a “fringe factor,” the PATH act is the main reason for the delay, said Piper Jaffray analyst George Tong.

 

“A lot of early season filers want their money and want their money fast,” Tong said. If filings are delayed, “it throws a wrench into consumer behavior.” Liberty’s Hewitt seemed to agree that the refund delays are a larger issue. “The PATH Act has created a massive change in the industry,” he said.

Mass Confusion

The PATH Act affects taxpayers claiming the earned income and additional child tax credits–about 27 million people claimed the EITC last year–but other taxpayers may wrongly think the rule changes affect them, sowing confusion. “Many people assumed this was the holding of refunds until [mid-February] for everyone,” said Michael Millman of Millman Research Associates.

 

H&R Block Chief Executive Officer Bill Cobb cited this “uncertainty” as a factor in delayed filings. “Taxpayers who typically file in January and early February appear to be less motivated to file quickly, given that their refunds may be delayed,” Cobb said in an earnings call on March 7.

 

Delay all you want—until April 18, that is, when your filing is due—but you’ll pay for that procrastination: Tax prep companies punish late filers by hiking their prices as the tax deadline approaches.

But, delay as you might, in the end there are only two certainties in life:

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The EURUSD spiked, European stocks faded gains, and German Bund futures tumbled to session lows following B loomberg report that the ECB has discussed whether the central bank can hike rates before the end of QE.

As Bloomberg further adds, ECB policy makers considered the question of whether interest rates could rise before their bond-buying program comes to an end, and notes that the central bank’s Governing Council on March 9 “exchanged views on ways of communicating and sequencing an exit from unconventional stimulus.”

That said, Bloomberg’s sources notes that the council didn’t discuss any specific scenario or timeline and hasn’t made any formal decisions on a strategy. An ECB spokesman declines to comment on the rumor. Bloomberg further adds that the ECB Governing Council currently “expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.”

While the report may be merely the latest trial balloon to gauge the market’s response, for the now the market is not taking chances, and has aggressively sold off the German bunds, while paring gains on the Stoxx 600 to only 0.2% on the day: Bund futures tumbled to session low of 159.10 on the news, sending the Bund yield to 0.48%, while Schatz futures likewise drop sharply and the Euribor strip steepens in expectation of future ECB rate hikes.

As to the mechanics of just how the ECB hikes rates while continuing to buy bonds, we eagerly look forward to the details.

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Via Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The battle raging in the Deep State isn't just a bureaucratic battle – it's a war for the soul, identity and direction of the nation.

When do the unlimited powers of the Intelligence/Security agencies threaten America's domestic and global national interests? The CIA and its political enablers claim the agency's essentially unlimited powers, partially revealed by Wikileak's Vault 7, pose no threat to America's interests, since they are intended to "defend" American interests.

This is the rationale presented by neocon CIA allies in both political parties: the CIA can't possibly threaten America's interests because the CIA defines America's interests.

This is the wormhole down which civil liberties and democracy have drained. It is an extraordinarily defining moment in American history when the director of the FBI publicly declares that there is no such thing as "absolute privacy" in the U.S.

In effect, privacy is now contingent on the level of interest the Security State has in the private conversation/data. If we read the U.S. Constitution, we do not find such contingencies: civil liberties are absolute. Post-1790 presidents have temporarily mooted civil liberties in time of war, and the CIA-led camp of the Deep State has justified its unlimited powers by effectively declared "a state of war is now permanent and enduring."

So what's left to defend if America has become the enemy of civil liberties and democracy, i.e. become a totalitarian state ruled by Security Services and their political henchmen and apologists?

I have long suggested that the tectonic plates of the Deep State are shifting as the ruling consensus has eroded. Some elements of the Deep State–what I call the progressive wing, which is (ironically to some) anchored in the military services– now view the neocon-CIA (Security State)-Wall Street elements as profoundly dangerous to America's long-term interests, both domestically and globally.

Is the Deep State Fracturing into Disunity? (March 14, 2014)

I have suggested that this "rogue Deep State" quietly aided Donald Trump (by subtly undermining Hillary Clinton's campaign) as the last best chance to save the nation from the neocon's over-reach that the Establishment's Wall Street-funded leadership (Bush, Clinton, Obama, et al.) has overseen–including granting the CIA and its allies virtually unlimited powers unhindered by any effective oversight.

Does a Rogue Deep State Have Trump's Back? (January 18, 2017)

This profound split in the Deep State has now broken into open warfare. The first salvo was the absurd propaganda campaign led by Establishment mouthpieces The New York Times and The Washington Post claiming Russian agents had "hacked" the U.S. election to favor Trump.

This fact-free propaganda campaign failed–having no evidence didn't work quite as well as the NYT and Wapo expected– and so the propaganda machine launched the second salvo, accusing Trump of being a Russian patsy.

The evidence for this claim was equally laughable, and that campaign has only made the Establishment, its propaganda mouthpieces and the neocon Deep State look desperate and foolish on the global and domestic stages.

The desperate neocon Deep State and its Democratic Party allies went to absurd lengths to undermine Trump via the "Boris ad Natasha" strategy of accusing Trump of collaborating with the Evil Russkies, even going so far as to briefly exhume former President G.W. Bush from deep-freeze to make a fool of himself, saying the Trump-Evil Russkies connection should be "investigated."

Now the rogue elements have launched a counterstrike–Vault 7. Here is one example of how quickly the CIA's over-reach has been absorbed by the body politic:

I highly recommend reading Wikileak's summary of Vault 7: Vault 7: CIA Hacking Tools Revealed.

We now know that the CIA maintained a special program (UMBRAGE) to mimic Russia-based hackers and create false trails back to fictitious "Russian hackers." A number of highly experienced analysts who reviewed the supposed "Russian hacks" had suggested the "evidence" smelled of false trails– not just bread crumbs, but bread crumbs heavy-handedly stenciled "this is Russian malware."

The body count from Vault 7 has not yet been tallied, but it wouldn't surprise me if former President Obama and his team eventually end up as political casualties. Non-partisan observers are noting all this over-reach occurred on Obama's watch, and it hasn't gone unnoticed that one of Obama's last executive orders stripped away the last shreds of oversight of what could be "shared" (or invented) between the Security Agencies.

Indeed, the entire leadership of the Democratic Party seems to have placed all their chips on the increasingly unviable claim that the CIA is the squeaky clean defender of America.

Vault 7 is not just political theater–it highlights the core questions facing the nation: what is left to defend if civil liberties and democratically elected oversight have been reduced to Potemkin-village travesties?

If there are no limits on CIA powers and surveillance, then what is left of civil liberties and democracy? Answer: nothing.

The battle raging in the Deep State isn't just a bureaucratic battle–it's a war for the soul, identity and direction of the nation. Citizens who define America's interests as civil liberties and democracy should be deeply troubled by the Establishment's surrender of these in favor of a National Security State with essentially no limits.

Americans tasked with defending America's "interests" globally should be asking if a CIA/NSA et al. with unlimited power is detrimental to America's soft and hard power globally, and toxic to its influence.

The answer is obvious: a CIA with unlimited power and the backing of a corrupt Establishment and media is more than detrimental to America's soft and hard power globally–it is disastrous and potentially fatal to America's interests, standing and influence.

Those of us on the sidelines can only hope that the progressive wing of the Deep State, the rogue elements who see the terrible danger of an unlimited National Security State, will succeed in undermining the powerful political support for this toxic totalitarian regime.

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If you found value in this content, please join Charles in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print). For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

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Yesterday we noted that the Trump administration was mulling over sending 100s of U.S. Marines to Raqqa to establish an outpost from which they could fire artillery at IS positions to support U.S. special forces and Kurdish fighters already on the ground.  Now, just one day later, video has emerged of dozens of heavily armored vehicles flying U.S. flags moving through desolate Syrian villages on their way to do just that.

The vehicles captured amid the maneuvers are a part of an amphibious task force of the 11th US Marine Expeditionary Unit that recently arrived in Syria to assist the Kurdish-led SDF and Syrian Arab Coalition as they are preparing for an operation to recapture the Islamic State’s stronghold of Raqqa.

Deployment of the approximately 400 U.S. Marines was confirmed by US officials earlier today after reports of their ground presence surfaced yesterday. While the unit will be playing a crucial role in providing support for rebels in the coming offensive, in particular in form of artillery fire from M777 Howitzers capable of striking targets at a range of up to 20 miles, they will not engage in frontline combat and are supposedly only in Syria “for a temporary period.”

Per RT, US Air Force Colonel John Dorrian, spokesman for the US-led coalition, was optimistic about the timing of the operation, as he stated that the effort by the forces battling ISIS in the area, to encircle the city, has been “going very, very well.”

 

Under former President Barack Obama, US special operations forces were deployed to recruit, train and advise the SDF’s Arab and Kurdish fighters. However, their numbers were limited to 500.

The Marines’ deployment is considered temporary, so it is not affected by the cap. The western alliance is expected to launch an assault on Raqqa in the coming weeks, which virtually assures that hundreds more will be shipped in shortly.

A spokesman for the US-led multinational coalition against IS, Colonel John Dorrian, told Reuters news agency on Thursday that the dozens of Rangers who recently arrived on the outskirts of Manbij, about 110km (68 miles) from Raqqa, were also there “for a temporary period”.

Additionally, over the weekend, a separate force of elite US army Rangers was also deployed near a town north-west of Raqqa in heavily armoured vehicles, in an attempt to end clashes between SDF fighters and a Turkish-backed rebel force. Pentagon officials had earlier said the Rangers were taking part in a “reassure and deter” mission following clashes between Turkish-backed Arab rebels and local fighters from the Manbij Military Council, which was set up by the SDF when it captured the town from IS last year.

Last week, after Turkey’s president said the rebels aimed to capture Manbij, the council said it had agreed a deal with Russia to hand a string of villages on the frontline over to Syrian government forces in order to protect them. Turkey considers the Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia, which dominates the SDF, an extension of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which operates inside Turkey.

Is this a US escalation?

The short answer: yes; the official one: “it is not yet clear”, but the deployment comes as President Donald Trump considers a new plan to defeat IS that was submitted by the Pentagon late last month. Reports say the review may lead to an increase in the number of US troops in Syria, but not a dramatic shift in strategy.

The Associated Press news agency reports that Mr Trump wants to give the Pentagon greater flexibility to make routine combat decisions in the fight against IS. Commanders on the ground were frustrated by what they considered micromanagement by the Obama administration, it adds. As reported last night, the US is also said to be preparing to send up to 1,000 troops to Kuwait to serve as a reserve force that can deployed to fight IS in Syria and Iraq if necessary.

In total, about 6,000 US troops are in the countries, but largely in advisory roles.

Why Is Raqqa so important?

As the WSJ writes overnight, the ongoing “three-way contest” for Raqqa will shape the mideast. Here are some details:

As the Syrian conflict enters its sixth year, the outcome of the scramble for Islamic State’s de facto capital will shape the balance of power in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

 

With the self-styled caliphate rapidly shrinking in Iraq after the loss of much of Mosul, the fall of Raqqa and Islamic State’s remaining territories in Syria has become just a matter of time. The contest over who gets these spoils, however, threatens to unleash a new spiral of violence that could draw regional and global powers deeper into the conflict.

 

The three forces aiming for Raqqa—Sunni Arab rebels, the Syrian regime and Kurdish-led militias—all view control over that area as giving them crucial leverage in any political settlement of the war.

The complicated dynamic is further muddled by the strategic calculations of their main sponsors, whose own interests extend far beyond the power struggle inside Syria.

 

Turkey, the main supporter of the rebel Free Syrian Army and allied Sunni Arab militias, is most interested in weakening the main Syrian Kurdish political faction, which is affiliated with the PKK, or Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The PKK is waging a violent campaign inside Turkey and is considered a terrorist group by Washington and Ankara alike.

 

For the Syrian regime’s main backer Russia, which has developed ties with the Syrian Kurds and, of late, with some Sunni Arab rebels, the main goal is to capitalize on its costly investment in Syria and to cement the achievements of its military campaign through a political deal.

 

The Trump administration, meanwhile, is still reviewing its Syria policy. Its actions, for now, remain driven almost exclusively by the military priorities in the battle against Islamic State, with limited attention to America’s other interests and alliances in the region.

More here.

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The yen and the peso jerked higher after President Trump’s commerce secretary Wilbur Ross commented that he expecte to start renegotiating NAFTA within two weeks and that Japan will be high on the list for trade agreements.

As Bloomberg reports, discussions are under way with the Finance, Ways and Means committees and the expectation is that “in the next couple weeks” the U.S. will issue the 90-day notice trigger legally required consultations with lawmakers, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross tells journalists in Washington. Ross spoke at a press briefing with Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal. The revamping of Nafta could result in either two bilateral agreements with symmetrical conditions or a fresh trilateral deal, says Ross, adding the U.S. is less concerned with the form than trying to get the right substance, and that it is premature to discuss specific details of Nafta talks. The border adjustable tax is still a concept, and there’s been no formal proposal; whatever is decided will probably be a “large component” of the House tax bill.

Additionally, Ross said that Japan was to be a high priority with regard a new trade agreement. 

The result was a kneejerk higher in the Yen and peso…

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There has been a distinct shift in the composition of job gains in the first full job report under Donald Trump: whereas in the recent past, jobs under Obama were mainly focused in low-paying, minimum-wage categories, such as retail, hospitality, education and, of course, food service and drinking places, in February there was a notable change with some of Trump’s favorite sectors, such as manufacturing and construction posting dramatic gains.

While all sectors of the economy, with the exception of retail and utilities, expanded payrolls in February, it was the jump in manufacturing employment, which increased 28,000, and the largest increase since August 2013, that caught analysts’ attention. Employment rose in food manufacturing (+9,000) and machinery (+7,000) but fell in transportation equipment (-6,000). Over the past 3 months, manufacturing has added 57,000 jobs.

And then there was the surge in highly-paid construction payrolls, which soared by a whopping 58,000, the biggest gain since March 2007, boosted by warmer weather. Construction has now added 177,000 jobs over the past 6 months, in what has been interpreted by analysts as good news for the US housing market.

On the other hand, confirming the woes of the retail sector, employment here fell 26,000 after a gain of 39,900 jobs in January. In recent months, retailers including J.C. Penney and Macy have announced thousands of layoffs as they shift toward online sales and scale back on brick-and-mortar operations: these mass layoffs are finally starting to be noticed by the BLS.

Other notable highlights:

• Specialty trade contractors (+36,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (+15,000) saw major gains. .
• Employment in private educational services rose by 29,000 in February, following little change in the prior month (-5,000). Over the year, employment in the industry has grown by 105,000.
• Health care employment rose by 27,000 in February, with a job gain in ambulatory health care services (+18,000).
• Employment in mining increased by 8,000 in February, with most of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+6,000). Mining employment has risen by 20,000 since reaching a recent low in October 2016.
• Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in February (+37,000), even though just 3,100 temporary workers were added in February. The industry has added 597,000 jobs over the year.

The visual summary is below.

There is just one question: despite the healthy gains across the board, mostly in high-paying jobs, the average hour wage growth in February disappointed, suggesting that some disconnect between good jobs, and higher wages, still remains.  It will be up to the Fed to decide if that “disconnect” is structural or one-time.

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Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Despite the averages’ close proximity to 52-week highs, the number of NYSE New Lows has recently surpassed that of New Highs.

Although the major stock averages remain within arm’s length of their highs, an increasing number of red flags has recently been popping up. As members of The Lyons Share are aware, we became increasingly bearish in the short-term during the latter stages of the recent melt up in prices. Our main concern stemmed from the wide array of indices hitting key Fibonacci Extensions of the 2015 and Fall 2016 declines. On top of that, investor sentiment has become uncomfortably bullish. And while sentiment is tricky from a timing standpoint, the exuberant extremes suggested that recent gains may not be sustainable. Lastly, while market breadth had been holding up quite well, some minor red flags had begun to pop up, especially pertaining to volume and small-cap stocks. However, as today’s Chart Of The Day reveals, the level of concern over breadth has now been ratcheted up.

As recently as last week, many market participants were abuzz over the jump in stocks making new 52-week highs. And while we have cautioned that the statistic can be quite noisy, an expansion in new highs is always welcome. However, while the stock averages remain fairly resilient, we have already seen the number of new highs plummet. On the NYSE, for example, new highs have plunged nearly 90% from their peak just a week ago. Furthermore, the number of new lows on the exchange has exceeded the number of new highs over the past three days. This is highly unusual given the averages’ relative close proximity to their 52-week highs.

Specifically, since 1970, the S&P 500 has closed within 1% of its 52-week high on nearly 3000 days. On just 78 of those days, or about 2.5%, did NYSE new lows exceed new highs. Many of those days were clustered together around roughly 27 unique occurrences.

 

Here is a close up of just the past 20 years:

 

Not all of the events preceded trouble in the stock market. In fact, nearly half of them to place during the 1999 market melt-up. However, enough of them occurred in the vicinity of significant market tops that the concern appears to be legitimate rather than merely theoretical. Such tops include cyclical peaks in 1972, 2000 and 2007 as well as major intermediate-term tops in 1990, 1998 and 2015.

In aggregate, S&P 500 returns have been subpar following these events. Even when including the dozens of dates during the 1999 rally, median returns are negative through 2 months – and also at 2 years.

This troubling data point does not guarantee imminent trouble for stocks. However, the extended status of the major averages as well as bullish sentiment extremes make this a particularly noteworthy development in the near-term. Additionally, further out, it has historically occurred near enough major tops to give one pause regarding the market’s proximity in its long-term cycle.

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