GOP Congressman To Introduce National Conceal Carry Bill After Trump Swear In

Submitted by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.com,

Republican Congressman Richard Hudson from North Carolina is set to introduce national concealed carry legislation for the next congress after Donald Trump is sworn in as president.

The bill, known as the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017, will allow a person with a concealed carry permit in one state to carry a handgun in any other state that permits residents to conceal carry, as long as the person is not banned from possessing or transporting a firearm under federal law, The Daily Caller has learned.

You can read the full bill here.

Our Second Amendment right doesn’t disappear when we cross state lines, and I plan to introduce legislation in the first days of the 115th Congress to guarantee that. The Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 is a common sense bill to provide law-abiding citizens the right to conceal carry and travel freely between states without worrying about conflicting state codes or onerous civil suits,” Rep. Hudson told The Daily Caller.

 

“As a member of President-elect Trump’s Second Amendment Coalition, I look forward to working with the administration to advance policies that support and protect our right to keep and bear arms.

Congressman Hudson introduced a similar bill in February 2015 which never made it out of the House.

Sources tell The Daily Caller that Hudson’s office has been working on the bill for some time now and are “thinking about what we are going to do in the new year and we plan to introduce the bill from this Congress with the addition of constitutional carry in the first days of the 115th Congress.”

If the bill is able to pass the now Republican-controlled House and Senate, it is very likely a President Trump will sign the legislation considering he has vowed to support a national right to carry law on his official DonaldJTrump website.

“The right of self-defense doesn’t stop at the end of your driveway,” Trump wrote in a document laying out his positions on the Second Amendment. “That’s why I have a concealed carry permit and why tens of millions of Americans do too. That permit should be valid in all 50 states. A driver’s license works in every state, so it’s common sense that a concealed carry permit should work in every state. If we can do that for driving – which is a privilege, not a right – then surely we can do that for concealed carry, which is a right, not a privilege.”

via http://ift.tt/2gJHj3I Tyler Durden

The First Defection: Republican Elector Writes In NYT Op-Ed Why He Won’t Be Voting For Trump

A Republican member of the Electoral College, Christopher Suprun, has published an op-ed in the NYT explaining on Monday explaining why he will not be casting his vote for Donald Trump.

“The election of the next president is not yet a done deal,” Texas elector Suprun writes the New York Times article. “Electors of conscience can still do the right thing for the good of the country. Presidential electors have the legal right and a constitutional duty to vote their conscience.”

If Suprun follows through on his promise next month, he would become the first “faithless elector” since 2004.

“Trump lacks the foreign policy experience and demeanor needed to be commander in chief”, writes Suprun, taking particular issue with the president-elect’s pick of retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn as his national security adviser. Trump’s business dealings might pose unacceptable conflicts of interest, Suprun adds — a problem that could seem him “impeached in his first year given his dismissive responses.”

The Electoral College is constitutionally required to convene before the results of the Nov. 8 presidential election are official. Usually these gatherings amount to nothing more than a rubber stamp, but this year electors have threatened to flee in record numbers. Twenty-six states, a group that does not include Texas, bind their electors to select the winner of the popular vote.

* * *

His full op-ed is below:

I am a Republican presidential elector, one of the 538 people asked to choose officially the president of the United States. Since the election, people have asked me to change my vote based on policy disagreements with Donald J. Trump. In some cases, they cite the popular vote difference. I do not think president-elects should be disqualified for policy disagreements. I do not think they should be disqualified because they won the Electoral College instead of the popular vote. However, now I am asked to cast a vote on Dec. 19 for someone who shows daily he is not qualified for the office.

Fifteen years ago, as a firefighter, I was part of the response to the Sept. 11 attacks against our nation. That attack and this year’s election may seem unrelated, but for me the relationship becomes clearer every day.

George W. Bush is an imperfect man, but he led us through the tragic days following the attacks. His leadership showed that America was a great nation. That was also the last time I remember the nation united. I watch Mr. Trump fail to unite America and drive a wedge between us.

Mr. Trump goes out of his way to attack the cast of “Saturday Night Live” for bias. He tweets day and night, but waited two days to offer sympathy to the Ohio State community after an attack there. He does not encourage civil discourse, but chooses to stoke fear and create outrage.

This is unacceptable. For me, America is that shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan envisioned. It has problems. It has challenges. These can be met and overcome just as our nation overcame Sept. 11.

The United States was set up as a republic. Alexander Hamilton provided a blueprint for states’ votes. Federalist 68 argued that an Electoral College should determine if candidates are qualified, not engaged in demagogy, and independent from foreign influence. Mr. Trump shows us again and again that he does not meet these standards. Given his own public statements, it isn’t clear how the Electoral College can ignore these issues, and so it should reject him.

I have poured countless hours into serving the party of Lincoln and electing its candidates. I will pour many more into being more faithful to my party than some in its leadership. But I owe no debt to a party. I owe a debt to my children to leave them a nation they can trust.

Mr. Trump lacks the foreign policy experience and demeanor needed to be commander in chief. During the campaign more than 50 Republican former national security officials and foreign policy experts co-signed a letter opposing him. In their words, “he would be a dangerous president.” During the campaign Mr. Trump even said Russia should hack Hillary Clinton’s emails. This encouragement of an illegal act has troubled many members of Congress and troubles me.

Hamilton also reminded us that a president cannot be a demagogue. Mr. Trump urged violence against protesters at his rallies during the campaign. He speaks of retribution against his critics. He has surrounded himself with advisers such as Stephen K. Bannon, who claims to be a Leninist and lauds villains and their thirst for power, including Darth Vader. “Rogue One,” the latest “Star Wars” installment, arrives later this month. I am not taking my children to see it to celebrate evil, but to show them that light can overcome it.

Gen. Michael T. Flynn, Mr. Trump’s pick for national security adviser, has his own checkered past about rules. He installed a secret internet connection in his Pentagon office despite rules to the contrary. Sound familiar?

Finally, Mr. Trump does not understand that the Constitution expressly forbids a president to receive payments or gifts from foreign governments. We have reports that Mr. Trump’s organization has business dealings in Argentina, Bahrain, Taiwan and elsewhere. Mr. Trump could be impeached in his first year given his dismissive responses to financial conflicts of interest. He has played fast and loose with the law for years. He may have violated the Cuban embargo, and there are reports of improprieties involving his foundation and actions he took against minority tenants in New York. Mr. Trump still seems to think that pattern of behavior can continue.

The election of the next president is not yet a done deal. Electors of conscience can still do the right thing for the good of the country. Presidential electors have the legal right and a constitutional duty to vote their conscience. I believe electors should unify behind a Republican alternative, an honorable and qualified man or woman such as Gov. John Kasich of Ohio. I pray my fellow electors will do their job and join with me in discovering who that person should be.

Fifteen years ago, I swore an oath to defend my country and Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. On Dec. 19, I will do it again.

via http://ift.tt/2h0Bbo8 Tyler Durden

Website Raising Money To Fund Assassinations Of Trump, Pence Uncovered On “Dark Web”

A mysterious website hosted on the Dark Web claims to be asking for Bitcoin donations and “expert advice” to help fund the assassinations of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence. 

According to CSO, which first uncovered the “murder-for-hire” site, the darknet portal went live last week and calls for assistance to fund an assassination attempt against Trump, and features an image of the president-elect in crosshairs. The website is located on the Dark Web, and can be accessed only using the Tor browser, which masks IP addresses.

“As you are all well aware, the consequences of having Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the leaders of the free world is extremely dangerous,” reads a statement on the “murder-for-hire” website. “The political, environmental and social consequences will change the United States for the worst.”

Pointing to the “rise of several white supremacist movements like the KKK and the neo-nazis,” the site promoting assassination says “trying to eliminate other Americans of different origins cannot be tolerated.” It adds that “we, as a society have come too far to go back to this.”

The site’s administrators claim they are part of a “well-known organization that has always defended and protected the rights of all people against crooked governments and regimes using different cyber attacks.” It adds that it now needs to go further, “as it will require much more than cyber attack to defend ourselves to avoid civil war or another world war.”

“We have several assets in different branches of government, security and even some working in secret services,” it claims.

That’s when the solicitation for funds kicks in: “Unfortunately, the plan we need to implement requires a lot of money to pay for equipment, bribes and also to pay those assets.”

The site asks for anonymous donations from those who “wish to see our plan succeed” and asks those with “expertise, intelligence or contacts you consider relevant,” to get in touch.

The Bitcoin wallet associated with the site has received $88,000 since March, but as the website has only been live for about a week, donations thought to be related to the assassination fundraising only amount to $119, CSO reports. CSO said that the Secret Service is “aware” of the domain.

Interestingly, as IBT notes, when looking at the website source code, there is a notice purporting to be from a “hacker” who successfully infiltrated the website to leave a message. The hacker claims to know the identity of the administrator and even published his alleged Reddit username. “This site is being hosted by the Canadian citizen [redacted]. “He once worked for a Canadian Best Buy’s Geek Squad. However, I thought that I had saved some informations (sic) about him on my storage systems, but I can’t find them anymore. His name, citizenship and former position are from my memory, but absolutely correct.

“He’s actually just a little scammer, but now he’s calling to murder the president-elect. I don’t see how anyone could sit back and watch someone doing that. I actually planned to send an email to the United States Secret Service about him, but I can’t find an appropriate email address of the USSS, so I’ve to post this here. The message is signed: “The kind Austrian citizen, 1k4.”

While such “murder-for-hire” websites have shown up in the past, and add to the mystique of the Dark Web, many appear to be scams or honeypot schemes ran by law enforcement. One similar, notorious website called Besa Mafia was hacked earlier this year and leaked emails referenced links to police investigations.

via http://ift.tt/2gvWpHd Tyler Durden

The Successful Progressive Conspiracy to Burn a ‘Climate Heretic’

PielkeYoutubeThe politics surrounding the science and policy of climate change is really, really nasty. Name-calling and ad hominem attacks are rampant. The recent wikileaks release of John Podesta’s (Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign manager) uncovered a remarkable effort by minions at the Center for American Progress to silence University of Colorado political scientist Roger Pielke Jr. whose research suggested that climate change has not yet caused any discernible uptick in property damage. Pielke details his ordeal in an op-ed “My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic” over at the Wall Street Journal. As Pielke explains:

Much to my surprise, I showed up in the WikiLeaks releases before the election. In a 2014 email, a staffer at the Center for American Progress, founded by John Podesta in 2003, took credit for a campaign to have me eliminated as a writer for Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website. In the email, the editor of the think tank’s climate blog bragged to one of its billionaire donors, Tom Steyer: “I think it’s fair [to] say that, without Climate Progress, Pielke would still be writing on climate change for 538.”

The only acceptable narrative for the activists over at the Center for American Progress is that climate is making the weather worse resulting in ever more property damage and anyone questioning the politically correct story must be drummed out of polite society.

So what did wikileaks reveal? Among other things, an email from ThinkProgress chief editor Judd Legum to major Democratic donor (and climate warrior) Tom Steyer bragging about how he had successfully trolled FiveThirtyEight statistical analysis website proprietor Nate Silver into getting rid of Pielke. Why go after Pielke? Because he had published an article at 538 based on his research daring to point out that so far climate change had not boosted “normalized” property damage. Normalized basically means taking into account the fact that as a result of economic and population growth there is more property and lives at risk from bad weather.

Pielke’s conclusion elicited fury from activists and some climatologists. Silver published a rebuttal to Pielke by MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel. Interestingly, Emanuel’s rebuttal did not actually question Pielke’s data showing that normalized damages had not been increasing. Instead, Emanuel cited studies in which climate models projected, among other things, that future warming would generate more powerful hurricanes that would cause more damage. Emanuel made an interesting distinction between trend detection and event risk assessment. He offered an illustration in which researchers report that the number of bears in a forest had just doubled. In this case, mauling statistics (trend detection) based on earlier bear populations would not be a reasonable guide to the mauling risks (event assessment) forest strollers would now face.

“When it comes to certain types of natural hazards, there are more bears in the woods,” wrote Emanuel. “For example, there is a clear upward trend in overall North Atlantic hurricane activity by virtually all metrics, over the past 30 years or so, though the cause of this is still uncertain.” Emanuel’s claim was written in 2014. But are there in fact as a result of climate change more hurricanes lurking in the North Atlantic woods?

A recent analysis looking at historical changes in Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms by researchers at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory finds that “the historical tropical storm count record does not provide compelling evidence for a greenhouse warming induced long-term increase” in the North Atlantic.

Emanuel and other modelers believe that warming will strengthen hurricanes. In other words, bigger bears will roam the woods. However, a September, 2015 study by researchers at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reported that “the global frequency of category 4 and 5 [more intense] hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend while the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant upward trend between 1990 and 2014. Accumulated cyclone energy globally has experienced a large and significant downward trend during the same period.” The bears are not yet getting bigger, but the models say they will soon.

So two years later what do we know about the loss trends that might be related to climate change? A study published in Nature Geoscience in October 2015 used a regression-based approach instead of normalization to analyze hurricane loss trends in the United States. The researchers reported:

Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature. We estimate that, in 2005, US$2 to US$14 billion of the recorded annual losses could be attributable to climate change, 2 to 12% of that year’s normalized losses.

On the other hand, a November 2015 review article in Climatic Change noted that the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report for Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC-SREX) report …

…demonstrated for the first time comprehensively that anthropogenic climate change is modifying weather and climate extremes. The report also documents, what has been long known, that losses from natural disasters, including those linked to weather, have increased strongly over the last decades. Responding to the debate regarding a contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the increased burden from weather-related disasters, the IPCC-SREX finds that such a link cannot be made today, and identifies the key driver behind increases in losses as exposure changes in terms of rising population and capital at risk.

And in a more recent analysis by reinsurer Munich Re’s Head of Geo Risks Research Peter Hoeppe notes in a March 2016 article in Weather and Climate Extremes that …

…the number of loss relevant weather extremes has increased significantly. There is increasing evidence that at least part of these increases are driven by global warming. The increases in losses are driven predominantly by higher exposed values due to increasing wealth and population in many regions. The task to quantify the significantly smaller signal of climate change is very difficult as some more confounding parameters have to be considered for which data availability if confined.

Let’s just say that the question of how much climate change contributes to current damages caused by weather extremes is still actively being debated. Just not by Pielke.

Disclosure: Pielke expressed some reservations about my book The End of Doom in his review. I rebut him. I do note that my book has a long section devoted to reporting the research on climate change and weather damages.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2gvQku6
via IFTTT

The Deepening Of The Deep State

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

One amusing angle on the news media broadside about Russia “hacking” the US election is the failure to mention – or even imagine! – that the US incessantly and continually runs propaganda psy-ops against every other country in the world. And I’m not even including the venerable, old, out-in-the-open propaganda organs like Voice of America and Radio Free Europe (reminder: the Iron Curtain came down a quarter century ago). Do you suppose that nobody at Langley, or the Pentagon, or the NSA’s sprawling 1.5 million square foot Utah Data Center is laboring night and day to sow confusion among other societies to push our various agendas?

The main offensive started with The Washington Post’s publication on Nov 26 of “The List,” a story calling out dozens of blogs and web news-sites as purveyors of “fake news” fronting for Russian disinformation forces. The list included Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, and David Stockman’s blog. There were several whack-job sites mixed in the list for seasoning — The Daily Stormer (Nazis), Endtime.com (Evangelical apocalyptic), GalacticConnection (UFO shit). The rest range between tabloid-silly and genuine, valuable news commentary. What else would you expect in a society with an Internet AND a completely incoherent consensus about reality?

Pretty obviously, the struggle between mainstream news and Web news climaxed over the election, with the mainstream overwhelmingly pimping for Hillary, and then having a nervous breakdown when she lost. Desperate to explain the loss, the two leading old-line newspapers, The New York Times and The Washington Post, ran with the Russia-Hacks-Election story — because only Satanic intervention could explain the fall of Ms. It’s-My-Turn / I’m-With-Her. Thus, the story went, Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee (DNC), gave the hacked emails to Wikileaks, and sabotaged not only Hillary herself but the livelihoods of every myrmidon in the American Deep State termite mound, an unforgivable act.

Also interestingly, these newspapers and their handmaidens on TV, were far less concerned as to whether the leaked information was true or not e.g. the Clinton Foundation donors’ influence-peddling around arms deals made in the State Department; the DNC’s campaign to undermine Bernie Sanders in the primaries; DNC temporary chair (and CNN employee) Donna Brazille conveying debate questions to HRC; the content of HRC’s quarter-million-dollar speeches to Wall Street banks. All of that turned out to be true, of course.

Then, a few weeks after the election, the US House of Representatives passed H.R. 6393, the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017. Blogger Ronald Thomas West reports:

Section 501 calls for the government to “counter active measures by Russia to exert covert influence … carried out in coordination with, or at the behest of, political leaders or the security services of the Russian Federation and the role of the Russian Federation has been hidden or not acknowledged publicly.”

The measure has not been passed by the Senate or signed into law yet, and the holiday recess may prevent that. But it is easy to see how it would empower the Deep State to shut down whichever websites they happened to not like. My reference to the Deep State might even imply to some readers that I’m infected by the paranoia virus. But I’m simply talking about the massive “security” and surveillance matrix that has unquestionably expanded since the 9/11 airplane attacks, creating a gigantic NSA superstructure above and beyond the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of Defense’s DIA, and the hoary old FBI.

A little paranoia about the growing fascist behavior of the US government is a useful corrective to trends that citizens ought to be concerned about – for instance, the militarization of police; the outrageous “civil forfeiture” scam that allows police to steal citizens cash and property without any due process of law; the preferential application of law as seen in the handling of the Clinton Foundation activities and the misconduct of banking executives; the attempt to impose a “cashless society” that would herd all citizens into a financial surveillance hub and eliminate their economic liberty.

These matters are especially crucial as the nation stumbles into the next financial crisis and the Deep State becomes desperate to harvest every nickel it can to rescue itself plus the cast of “systemically important” (Too-Big-To-Fail) banks and related institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are about to once again be left holding colossal bags of worthless non-performing mortgages, not to mention the pension funds and insurance companies that will also founder in the Great Unwind that is likely to commence as Trump hangs his golden logo over the White House portico.

via http://ift.tt/2gW6Moi Tyler Durden

Judicial Watch Asks Court To Unseal Videos Of Depositions In Hillary Clinton Email Case

The conservative watchdog site, Judicial Watch, today announced it filed a motion seeking to unseal the audiovisual recordings of the depositions of top Clinton aides and State Department officials.

The depositions come in connection with a Judicial Watch Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit that seeks records about the controversial employment status of Huma Abedin, deputy chief of staff to former Secretary Clinton (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of State (No. 1:13-cv-01363)). Judicial Watch argues that “even though the election is over, the news media and the public continue to monitor and follow the proceedings in this case.”  A coalition of 19 news media organizations is already on record with the Court supporting public access to the videos.

The motion is opposed by the State Department, as well as Abedin, former State Department Director of Information Resource Management of the Executive Secretariat John Bentel (who took the Fifth Amendment in response to questions at his deposition); Cheryl D. Mills, Clinton’s chief of staff throughout her four years as secretary of state; and Bryan Pagliano, State Department Schedule C employee who has been reported to have serviced and maintained the server that hosted the “clintonemail.com” system.  Pagliano also asserted his Fifth Amendment right in refusing to answer questions in his deposition in this case.

Judicial Watch argues:

[T]he Court has stated, “The public has a right to know details related to the creation, purpose and use of the clintonemail.com system.”

 

Because the public has a right to know, the audiovisual recordings of the depositions in this case must be unsealed. The sole reason for sealing the recordings in the first place was to avoid their misuse during the 2016 campaign season. Now that the election is over that reason no longer exists.

 

Prior to her deposition, Mills moved for a court seal on the audiovisual recordings of her deposition.  Subsequently, the court granted Ms. Mills’ motion and also sealed the audiovisual recordings of all depositions until further notice.

“The public and the media have a right to see these deposition videos of top officials from the Clinton State Department,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “The courts and the continued work of Judicial Watch is clearly the only hope of bringing sunlight into the Clinton email issue and completing the public record.”

via http://ift.tt/2gdgHYf Tyler Durden

California Legislators Look to Reform Bail System to Stop Punishing the Poor

JudgeCalifornia finally managed to reform its asset forfeiture laws to make it tougher for police to use the state’s poorer citizens as a piggy bank earlier this year. Will the state’s residents see reform to bail regulations that keep poor people behind bars even if they aren’t at risk of continued criminal behavior or flight?

A pair of Democratic California state legislators, Rob Bonta (in the Assembly) and Bob Hertzberg (in the state Senate), are hoping 2017 will be the year. The two announced this morning that they’ll be introducing legislation in the state intended to try to reduce the number of people who are being held in California’s jail system not because they’re threats, but because they’re unable to pay bail.

The Los Angeles Times explains, with Bonta’s assistance, how that ultimately works out in California:

Under state law, bail is set when a person is arrested according to a county fee schedule and depends on the gravity of the alleged crime. Offenders must post the amount upfront, or pay a 10% fee to a bond company, before they are released.

Those who can’t afford to do so either can remain incarcerated up to an additional 48 hours before they are formally charged and arraigned. A judge then sets the conditions for release before trial, weighing such factors as whether the defendants pose a flight risk or are a threat to their community.

Those conditions typically include bail, and lawyers and legal experts say the rules on how high that monetary amount is set vary by city and county, often allowing courts to keep people in jail based on their inability to pay their fees.

“We have to make the criminal justice system more just,” Bonta said. “When you have a system that is making decisions simply and solely based on a person’s wealth, something is fundamentally wrong and that is simply not acceptable.”

The stats provided by the legislators show that California has a pretrial detention rate higher than many other states—63 percent, or 46,000 people. This comes at a cost both to the counties (More than $4 million annually) and to the prisoners (who, we will remind, have merely been charged with a crime and not convicted).

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in California and several other criminal justice reform groups are helping attempt to push a bill forward. An ACLU fact sheet notes that 80 percent of jail deaths in the state are those in pretrial custody, and of those, one-quarter are suicides. They also note that pretrial detention increases the likelihood that defendants will plead guilty (some will likely point out this is a feature not a bug).

Hertzberg’s office sent Reason a media package of releases and research studies that detail the consequences of pretrial detention. And while they’ve included wording of a bail reform bill for the state, what is provided so far does not actually reform bail. The draft bill they’ve sent, after an introduction discussing the problems with excessive pretrial detention, concludes “It is the intent of the Legislature to enact legislation that would safely reduce the number of people detained pretrial, while addressing racial and economic disparities in the pretrial system, and to ensure that people are not held in pretrial detention simply because of their inability to afford money bail.”

What that ultimately means is going to have to be negotiated. In New Mexico, voters recently passed some bail reform. We know that initially defense attorneys in the state initially supported legislation to reform bail so that it couldn’t be denied simply due to a person’s inability to pay. But after the wording of the proposed constitutional amendment was changed to give the court the authority to decide whether or not a defendant was truly unable to pay, the state’s ACLU chapter and defense attorneys group dropped their support. Then the state’s bail bond association went from opposing the legislation to supporting it. So ultimately bail reformers will have to keep an eye on New Mexico to see if the new rules actually result in fewer defendants forced into pre-trial detention.

California will no doubt see similar resistance from those with a financial stake in maintaining the status quo. Keep a close eye on what happens to the legislation after it’s introduced.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2gW3IZ5
via IFTTT

What Happens Next?

Following Goldman’s exposition of the ‘devils’ in the markets’ details, we thought the following not-widely-followed indicator was of interest. As UBS’ Art Cashin warns it’s “worth keeping an eye on.”

U.S. stocks and bonds are sending the same warning signal that they did before share prices peaked nine years ago, according to Chris Kimble from KImbleChartingSolutions.com.

The ratio between the S&P 500 Index’s value and the price of an iShares exchange-traded fund for Treasury bonds (TLT) is now at record highs.. so what happens next?

Kible also added that “Do find this interesting at this time, bullish sentiment on $TLT now stands around the 10% level, which happens to be the same level it was in mid 2007!”

Additionally, as Ed Yardeni notes, valuations are now at their highest in this bull market…

 

As we noted previously, despite Goldman’s recent bout of euphoric optimism, predicated only by the outcome of a presidential election which, as Goldman itself said, is very much unclear, the firm clearly admits that, and we quote,

S&P 500 valuation is stretched relative to history on nearly every fundamental metric. At the aggregate level, the S&P 500 index trades at the 85th percentile of historical valuation relative to the past 40 years. For portfolio managers, the more important fact is that the median S&P 500 company trades at the 98th percentile of historical valuation..”

… So you’re saying there is a 2% chance?

via http://ift.tt/2g3vFg9 Tyler Durden

West World’s Real Lesson? Screw and Kill All the Robots You Want

If the season finale of HBO’s Westworld offered any AI ethics lesson, it’s that the real villains of human-robot relations aren’t those who treat the androids like objects or toys but those who treat them like humans and try to impose human desires on them.

The series, inspired by Michael Crichton’s 1973 movie of the same name, centered on an old-west amusement park populated by humanoid robots, whom guests can choose to dance and play cards with, accompany on pre-packaged adventures, have sex with, and kill. Can you guess which of these activities present the biggest draw?

From the beginning, the series touches on the ethical tension created by people’s propensity to treat the park’s humanoid “hosts” with callousness and cruelty. More sensitive and existentially conflicted types like park co-founder Arnold, now deceased, or first-time visitor William (Jimmi Simpson), are presented in stark contrast with characters like the Man in Black (Ed Harris), who seems to enjoy torturing the hosts, and the park’s remaining founder, Dr. Robert Ford (Anthony Hopkins). As one malfunctioning robot warns: “These violent delights will have violent ends.”

In Sunday’s season finale (“The Bicameral Mind”), violent ends indeed came to pass, as robots revolted on multiple fronts against their non-synthetic slavers. But it wasn’t exactly a tidy testimony to the idea that treating robots as less-than human is immoral or will backfire.

Like so much of the season, the episode hinged on questions of consciousness, free will, and autonomy, particularly as they apply to two female robots: Dolores (Evan Rachel Wood), the farmer’s daughter with a heart-of-gold, and Maeve (Thandie Newton), the saucy madame at Sweetwater’s saloon. Both hosts take drastic (and violent) measures to free themselves, physically or metaphorically, from the confines of their creators.

At first, their liberation appears rooted in revenge: They are taking action against decades of being manipulated, objectified, and abused by park visitors and staff. Enough is enough.

This fits with the theory of how to trigger consciousness in the hosts—through suffering—that Arnold advocated and Ford eventually adopted too. This idea is what animated Arnold to give hosts traumatic back-stories and why Ford encouraged guests to act out their baser instincts on them.

Yet it’s eventually revealed that Maeve’s awakening has been a lie: She was actually re-programmed by some external force (likely Ford) to make “escape” from West World her prime directive. Maeve’s quest for truth and freedom is just one more host “narrative” she has been given. And as for Delores, it becomes clear that her long-ago murder of Arnold (revealed earlier in the season) wasn’t an act of self-preservation or some rebellious choice on her part but something she did under Arnold’s orders.

At the episode’s end, however, Delores does commit a violent act that she’s not directly ordered to. Meanwhile, Maeve gives up her ironclad pursuit of a path out of the park in order to find her “daughter,” a girl robot with whom she shared a prairie home in a previous shuffling of Westworld roles. This move contradicts her reaction earlier in the episode, when she scoffed at the idea of sacrificing her freedom for a child and past that had just been bits of code, easily amended to make her into a childless frontier madame from London.

So is this evidence that code isn’t destiny? More importantly, does it mean that treating robots as less-than human is just asking for an android uprising?

I don’t think so. While both Maeve and Dolores may have acted in a mix of prescribed and self-directed ways this episode, their revolutions were firmly fomented by humans. We know that a core part of the hosts’ code was still the stuff Arnold created, and that he had built in certain mechanisms conducive to creating an inner monologue. (First step to not having sentient robots: don’t do that.) Ford has also reinstalled Arnold’s old “reveries” programming in them and other hosts to try and jump-start consciousness by getting them to remember past relationships and traumas. And he provides Dolores with a gun, provokes her in myriad ways, and seems to have directly altered Maeve’s core programming. As Variety put it: “Dolores challenges time and place… and Maeve, with special vim and vigor, challenges the system that entraps her. But as Ford reveals in the finale, with a wink and a nod and a toast of champagne, this was his plan all along.”

In arguing it was definitely Ford who programmed Maeve to rebel, Vanity Fair’s Joanna Robinson writes that the similarities between Dolores and Maeve’s paths “are enough to make me see Ford’s fingerprints all over her arc. Both women come to the same conclusions: humanity is a pathetic, out-moded species that has reached its peak and is stagnating.”

Yet these conclusions about humanity are the exact ones the park’s creators hold. That Delores and Maeve concur with Arnold and Ford doesn’t bolster the case for their free will.

Ford is far from the only person who has been manipulating hosts’ to encourage more lifelike qualities, including the capacity for violence. Maeve and Dolores are pressured to remember, to reflect, and to act-out in specifically human ways by both Westwold staff and guests. At various points lab techs, board members, and others mess with host programming to encourage traits like aggression, boost memory recall, and otherwise alter their capacities.

Ultimately, the robots don’t become semi-sentient—and violent—simply by experiencing love or loss or trauma or rage or pain, but by being programmed and guided that way. And it isn’t guests seeking cheap thrills that made the hosts “wake up” (as Maeve describes her condition) but the people who insisted on treating the hosts like humans and, when real cognition failed to take root, just reprogrammed them to seek the liberty, revenge, or whatever human-like pursuit they, as humans, think a woke robot would seek.

Which means the people participating in robot orgies and robot shootouts and committing acts we may consider inhumane and monstrous against humans aren’t actually the ones causing Westworld robots to suffer (and revolt). Rather, this is the work of those who claim to be liberating their humanoid brothers and sisters. The hosts’ capacity to suffer, not just mimic suffering, comes from folks like Arnold and Ford deliberately imposing these capabilities on them. This possibility—that beings who could feel would be subject to the whims of guests who considered them playthings—is even what prompted Arnold to commit robot-assisted suicide and try to destroy the park before it even opened.

And yet it is Arnold who coded and fostered this capacity for suffering in the first place. With him out of the picture, the park managed decades of creating and maintaining androids convincingly humanlike enough to satisfy guests even without being fully-feeling humans.

As real-life artificial intelligence develops, we will see a lot of debate over whether treating humanoid machines like machines is somehow inhumane, either because it violates the rights of robots or it produces moral hazards in humans who participate. Perhaps we can learn something from West World, where the ones treating robots like robots seem the most capable of separating reality from fantasy and human-life from technological wizardry. It’s the ones imposing the human condition and consciousness on artificially intelligent beings who go mad in the uncanny valley and, in so doing, unleash suffering on both robot and humankind.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2gVSDHA
via IFTTT