LGBT Lives Are Better Than Ever, Yet The Culture War Grows Louder

Joanna and Chip GainesMy public reaction (on Twitter) when I saw BuzzFeed’s strange, now-viral piece about a couple of HGTV hosts going to a church whose pastor doesn’t support gay marriage was to wonder if the media outlet was going to write a similar piece about every single Catholic in America or just the famous ones.

Whatever the stated intent for running a story about the church attendance of some C-list home improvement show hosts (they do well in cable ratings, anyway), the subtext is clearly intended for us to look askance at Chip and Joanna Gaines for belonging to a church whose pastor preaches against gay marriage. The weirdest part of the piece is that it’s entirely speculative. The Gaineses didn’t respond to requests for comment, so it’s a piece that cannot even tell the reader whether the Gaineses themselves support or oppose gay marriage.

Robby Soave noted this morning a couple of media outlets like Jezebel and Cosmopolitan running with the story. There’s also been a much larger blitz of responses that are critical of the BuzzFeed piece. Here’s some critical analysis over at the Washington Post from an engaged gay man who worries that the digital media environment under the Donald Trump administration is going to end up as “four agonizing, tedious years of ‘gotcha’ non-stories like this one.”

There is some possible good news here amid the media feeding frenzy surrounding the story: At the time that I’m writing this, a host of outlets have written about and linked to the BuzzFeed story. But I haven’t seen a peep at the major blogs or media outlets (such as The Advocate) that specifically cater to LGBT readers. I may have missed a blog link somewhere given the size of the internet, but this “controversy” doesn’t seem to be a focus of sites that are narrowly focused on LGBT lives and issues.

Why is this good news? Because it’s a sign that the people who are actually affected by cultural attitudes toward gay marriage recognition understand where the battles truly are (to the extent that there are any battles left). Whatever the Gaineses and their retrograde preacher believe about gay marriage is not relevant to whether the practice will continue. There is no indication that any of these people in this story have influence to alter the state of legal recognition (or any interest in doing so).

There is a lot of focus at LGBT sites about who will be serving the Trump administration and fears about what they may do. Trump actively courted LGBT voters, which is remarkable on its own for a representative of the Republican Party. Let’s not forget that the Republican Party’s opposition to gay issues hasn’t been just a plank in the platform—it’s also historically been an issue to campaign with, something largely absent from this year’s race. Trump nevertheless did terribly with gay voters, according to exit polls.

But while Trump doesn’t seem to personally have much opposition to the LGBT agenda, the same cannot be said for the people he’s selecting for his administration, and that’s where all the power will be. I’ve noted previously fear over Trump’s selection of Rep. Tom Price to head the Department of Health and Human Services, given his record of opposition on gay issues. Betsy DeVos, Trump’s pick for secretary of education, didn’t just oppose legal recognition of gay marriage; she actually bankrolled ballot initiatives to block it. Her family has significant connections to organizations that have done everything they could to halt the legal normalization of same-sex relationships, and it’s worth analyzing how that might affect what she does in Trump’s cabinet.

So having said that, what I’m seeing from pieces like this bizarre one from BuzzFeed, and from things like a gay politician’s attempt to promote a boycott of a beer company owner for supporting Trump, is an inability to accept a norm that we live side-by-side in a world with significant ideological diversity, and an inability to place an emphasis on policy-making over signaling and culture war judging. Debate over DeVos’ actual anti-gay background and how that might or might not affect federal education policy (libertarian disclaimer: we shouldn’t even have a federal education policy) shouldn’t be fighting for attention with the church habits of a couple of televised home renovators.

I’ve said repeatedly while watching this election play out that one of the primary attitudes driving the culture of these campaigns has been the desire to punish one’s foes. It’s kind of remarkable seeing responses to the Trump election like this one at Out Magazine that is so certain that LGBT folks are going to be the ones punished under the incoming administration, yet is completely blind to the motivations of pro-Trump voters who think that they are the ones who were being punished and would continue to be punished in a Democratic administration. Why didn’t Shawn Binder’s parents think about his self-interest and those of his LGBT friends, Binder asks, while failing to detail or explain in any way what self-interests prompted his parents to vote for Trump. He wants to know whether he can forgive them, but doesn’t consider whether “forgiveness” is an attitude that should factor into a response to somebody using his or her vote in a way you don’t like. (Maybe that’s the libertarian in me talking: I go through life surrounded by people who vote in ways I don’t like and have managed to not have a nervous breakdown or wonder if I need to “forgive” people)

Self-segregation and social punishment seem to be the order of the day as the left and the right drift further and further apart culturally, even as policy differences seem less pronounced than they used to be. As a member of neither side, I’m hard-pressed to figure out the end game in BuzzFeed’s report other than page views and yet another thumbtack marking a point of cultural hostility on the map of the Internet.

I don’t want to suggest the false choice that covering the Gaineses comes at the expense of covering DeVos. I do want to suggest that journalists at BuzzFeed seriously start thinking about the motives behind cultural reporting like this because it is very clearly influencing people’s perceptions of politics and the media in ways that have already come back to haunt the press. Defensive responses by BuzzFeed’s editor grasping desperately for an explanation as to why the couple’s church attendance was considered newsworthy is not helping.

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Massive Explosion Rocks One Of Italy’s Largest Oil Refineries

According to local press, a massive explosion has rocked one of Italy’s biggest oil refineries in Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi, near Pavia, about 40km south of Milan. Local authorities have ordered residents to stay indoors while an emergency plan is activated.

 

 

The Department of Civil Protection in the Province of Alessandria says nearby emergency centers have been activated for monitoring and supervision, but people are advised to remain indoors in the meantime.

Local authorities are warning that the clouds of smoke are being pushed by winds towards Voghera, about 30km (19 miles) south of Sannazzaro, and are expected to remain over the site for the coming hours.

The fire at the Eni refinery broke out at around 3.40 p.m. generating a ball of fire tens of meters high, according to eyewitnesses cited by Il Giorno. Images and footage from the scene show an enormous column of black smoke rising overhead.

Eni has issued a statement saying efforts are underway to extinguish the fire and there have been no reports of any injuries. The company also said the cause of the blast is under investigation.

The fire, which broke out in the East Shipyard refinery area according to Il Fatto Quotidiano, comes after a similar incident in July where a worker suffered burns following an explosion at an older part of the plant.

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General Market Topics Discussion (Video)

By EconMatters


We discuss Dennis Gartman in this video, Risk, Financial Markets, Viewer Comments, and several other topics. You always have to ask yourself: Are you the “Fool” in a given market? Risk evaluation is a given regarding anything in financial markets these days, and has been the case forever taking into account the multiple market crashes and “Melt-Ups” in almost every asset class for the last century of historical price data.

Always protect capital at all cost, even if this means taking “cautious losses” to protect financial capital for the long haul. And extrapolating from this idea, you can see why timing is one of the most important concepts of making money in financial markets. Getting the timing right makes your work a whole lot easier, all else being equal in markets.

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Bond Blooodbath Leaves Entire Treasury Curve Underwater For 2016

The collapse of the US Treasury market in the last two days has sent the entire curve (from 2Y to 30Y) higher in yield on the year….

The belly is underperforming with 5Y and 7Y worst (+20 and 21bps respectively) with 2Y ‘best’ – yield up ‘only’ 11bps in 2016…

 

And US bond markets are drastically underperforming the rest of the developed world…

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Russia Has Lost Contact With Cargo Ship Headed For International Space Station

An uncrewed Russian spacecraft meant to resupply the International Space Station appears to have suffered a malfunction shortly after launch today.

Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, tweeted that it lost communication with the spacecraft 383 seconds into the flight.

The third stage of the rocket, which helps propel the cargo ship to its final orbit, reportedly shut down “earlier than planned” according to NASA’s live broadcast of the mission…

As The Verge reports, Roscosmos has not said whether the spacecraft’s power-generating solar arrays have successfully deployed, or whether the ship was able to make it into its preliminary orbit. The spacecraft could already be headed back towards Earth if a malfunction occurred while the spacecraft was still executing its third stage burn.

The ship is carrying more than 5,300 pounds (2,400 kilograms) of cargo, including food, water, propellant, and other supplies.

NASA schedules cargo flights in such a way that a loss of one or two missions can’t directly endanger the crew aboard the space station. The next ISS resupply mission is supposed to take place sometime in early 2017. Roscosmos is one of three entities capable of resupplying the ISS. Two private spaceflight companies — SpaceX and Orbital ATK — have contracts with NASA that allow them to send cargo to the space station. third company will join them in 2019.

This is the second time in the last two years that Russia’s space agency has had trouble with an ISS resupply mission. In April of 2015, Roscosmos lost control of its cargo spacecraft during the Progress 59 mission. That ship spun wildly out of control and eventually burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Developing…

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How Should Reason Cover The Trump Era? Nick Gillespie, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Matt Welch Debate

How should libertarians—and Reason magazine, Reason.com, and Reason TV—feel about the prospects of the Trump era? And should libertarians be optimistic about how social, economic, and political freedom will fare under a president who talked about “closing that Internet up in some ways” and going after newspapers that wrote negative stories about him, invoked protectionism and and nationalism without missing a cue, and recently called for yanking the citizenship of flag burners?

Those are some of the questions that I put to my colleagues Matt Welch, editor at large at Reason, and Katherine Mangu-Ward, editor in chief of Reason magazine, in the newest Reason Podcast (subscribe to it at iTunes now!). Our discussion should be comforting for libertarians who believe in “Free Minds and Free Markets”—and the serious, fact-based journalism, analysis, and investigative reporting that has always characterized our work. “Logic, not legends. Coherence, not contradictions,” announced the first issue of Reason back in 1968. While folks on the broadly defined left busy themselves with scare stories about the end of the world and set about overthrowing the Electoral College and folks on the right alternate between their own style of pants-wetting and embrace of Trump’s economic and demographic nationalism, our print, web, and video journalism will be looking at the actual effects of policies and always advocating for more choice and freedom in how we choose to live our lives. As important, we’ll be looking at all the ways in which people are moving beyond government and creating a better, fairer, and more-prosperous 21st century without asking or waiting for anyone’s permission.

Katherine, Matt, and I also talk about the new graphic redesign for the print magazine—its first facelift in 15 years!—and how we encountered Reason for the first time. It’s a rollicking conversation that embodies the open-minded, animated, and optimistic of the only journalism outfit that has drawn praise over the years from Rush Limbaugh, the ACLU, and everyone in-between.

Today through Tuesday, December 6, Reason is running its annual webathon. We’re asking readers of this site to make tax-deductible donations in dollars and Bitcoin to Reason Foundation, the 501(c)(3) nonprofit that publishes our award-winning journalism in video, audio, and print form. Different giving levels come with different levels of swag, which you can read about here.

Listen to the podcast by clicking below.

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“The World Has Changed” – Average S&P Target Before Trump: 2,087; After Trump: 2,425

In a note from Evercore ISI, titled simply enough “Investors Believe The World Has Changed”, the firm once again confirms that price drives narrative (recall that everyone was bearish should Trump win), and writes that “Post election, investors believe the world has changed. Whether or not Trump’s pro-growth agenda is enacted or succeeds, investors we surveyed yesterday seemed to buy into it. For example, the consensus of investors we surveyed yesterday put the S&P at the end of next year at 2425; a similar survey we conducted on Nov 3 put the S&P at 2087.”

Below is a summary of what the post-Trump survey found – note that a Trump presidency, widely panned by market participants before the election, is now seen at 6.5 on a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 being “wonderful”:

Next, Evercore asks if the world has indeed changed, and points out the following list of recent headlines:

 

… and yet, Evercore’s surveys paint a different picture at least so far:

The U.S. Economy Not Taking Off

Markets have rallied hard. Many US indicators have strengthened. But judging by EVRISI company surveys, which have been basically unchanged for six months, the economy is hardly taking off. The surveys  so far this week are down slightly. And airlines at 41.9 are still quite weak (problem with fares).

So is the market wrong about Trump, or does it even have anything to do with Trump?  Perhaps not: as Evercore ISI notes, “Incredible Monetary Expansion Still Going On” and concludes “In any event, US
money growth is almost +8% y/y, or almost an incredible +$1t.”

So is the Trump rally just a monetary expansion in a real-estate billionaire clothing? With the Fed’s second rate hike in only 10.5 yers, we will find out soon.

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Nasdaq Tumbles Into Red Post-Trump As Bond Market Crashes

It appears the growthiness of the new regime is not so friendly to FANG stocks and big tech as the Nasdaq just gave up all its gains post-election.While tech is the biggest loser in stock land, it's the bloodbath in bonds that is most worrisome as 30Y yields spike another 10bps today..

Nasdaq is the biggest loser post-Trump…

 

As FANG stocks slump…

 

But it is the bond bloodbath that is really notable…

In yield terms…

 

And in price terms…

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Taper Tantrum 2.0: German Bunds Tumble On Report ECB Is Preparing To Taper Bond Purchases

Someone at Reuters must be really short Bunds.

One week ago, 2Y German Bunds tumbled after a Reuters report came out, according to which the ECB was looking for ways to lend out more of its huge pile of government debt to avert a freeze in the €5.5 trillion repo market that underpins the financial system, manifesting in the surge in short-term Bunds. The effect of that particular report lasted for all of one day as the market realized that no matter what the ECB does, the collateral shortage is likely to persist.

Fast forward to today, when the same thing happened, only this time, to the long end, when Reuters reported that, in advance of its March 2017 meeting, the ECB was considering sending a “formal signal after its policy meeting next Thursday that the program will eventually end.” As a result, Bund futures quickly slid to session low, dropping ~30 ticks in 10 minutes, on the back of the Reuters report.

 

 

In other words, tapering is coming. However, the ECB is not sure what form said tapering will take, especially since the primary message to be delivered is that QE will be extended beyond March, when it was originally scheduled to end, even if it is modestly (or not so modestly) reduced.

Reuters notes that even skeptics of more stimulus on the bank’s Governing Council “have accepted that an extension beyond the current expiry date of March is inevitable given weak underlying inflation and heightened political risk.

However, the question remains how to structure that extension.  According to Reuters, much of the preparatory staff work has focused on a six-month extension at a steady pace of 80 billion euros per month, an option favored by many as growth is sluggish, inflation lacks momentum and political risk from key elections keeps the chances of market volatility high, three sources said.

But some have indicated they would favor an extension at lower volumes, for example nine months at 60 billion euros a month, fearing that a straight extension could make the program appear open-ended, two of the sources said.

A compromise under discussion would be to signal the program’s eventual end, possibly in the bank’s forward guidance, indicating that the purchases cannot be extended indefinitely. Another option is not to specify monthly purchase volumes, essentially making them dependent on economic developments, the sources said, similar to what the BOJ has done with its curve control operation. That would allow the ECB to buy up to 80 billion euros without requiring it to spend the full amount.

“Coupled with the extension, there’s a sense that you need to send a signal, also for the hawks, that we will not be in the QE (quantitative easing) business forever,” one of the sources said. “We’re not talking about tapering. We’re talking about a signal.”

Actually, you are talking about tapering. However, the reason you don’t want to use that word is because when Bernanke uttered it in 2013, it unleashed the infamous Taper Tantrum in the US and globally, leading to a plunge in bond yields.

There is another problem: with the US tightening at a time when demand for US debt will have to stay constant or rise to fund Trump’s fiscal stimulus, it would be up to Japan and Europe to provide the “helicopter money” to fund US economic growth as DB explained. Even a small hint that this is going away, and suddenly the Trump stimulus is looking very shaky.

Sure enough, as Reuters admits, some proponents of the extension fear an ill-timed signal about reduced buying in future could heighten market volatility, potentially undoing some of the benefits of the scheme.

To be sure, it is not a done deal yet:

Extending the asset buys would require the ECB to ease some of its self-imposed restrictions, a sensitive debate as most options on the table raise legal or political concerns, facing varying degrees of opposition within the Governing Council.

 

Still, ECB President Mario Draghi seemed to dismiss those concerns this week, arguing that the program was sufficiently flexible, suggesting that parameter changes would not stand in the way if policymakers opted for the extension.

However, with a spate of economic and political events in the first two weeks of December, it just may be that a tapering announcement by the ECB is the catalyst that finally blows over the house of cards market that has soared since November 8 on nothing but hope and lack of concrete news.

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Trump Fills the Swamp with Elaine Chao (Mitch McConnell’s Wife) for Transportation Secretary

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I know this is a couple of days old, but bear with me.

CNN reports:

President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Elaine Chao, the former labor secretary and wife of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, to be his choice for transportation secretary, an official briefed on the matter told CNN on Tuesday.

Chao served as secretary of labor under President George W. Bush from 2001 through 2009 — the longest tenure in the position since World War II — and has been married to McConnell since 1993. She was the first Asian-American woman to serve in a Cabinet position.

Chao also served as the deputy secretary of transportation under President George H.W. Bush from 1989 to 1991. Following her time in government, Chao has held a position as a distinguished fellow at the Heritage Foundation in addition to conducting media appearances.

Meanwhile, you know someone’s really “draining the swamp” when Chuck Shumer comes out with unbridled praise. As Politico notes:

continue reading

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