Author: admin

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

It’s easy to set aside the nostalgia, so to speak, since this is likely the last Christmas holiday season to be talked about in the media in the positively glowing terms of the unemployment rate. Ever since the “recovery” began, each and every year the internet and TV channels are filled with stories about how strong the consumer is and therefore how great the economy must be. This tendency is greatly amplified as the holidays roll in, as it is the Christmas season where all of this is given its rightful importance.

This year is already no different; almost all of the content generated for the mainstream is downright giddy. Such as:

Shoppers lined up at stores and flocked to their computer screens in search of bargains on Black Friday, putting the retail industry on track for what it hopes will become a record sales weekend.

 

Shoppers appeared ready to open their wallets, buoyed by a generally strong economy and rising stock market. And major store chains did their part, offering dramatic discounts on their traffic-building “doorbuster” opening specials.

Those paragraphs were written under a headline of Retailers Aim To Smash Four-Day Weekend Sales Records as if the narrative of the past almost eight years weren’t perfectly clear by now. Retailers have been “smashing” all sorts of things during that time, but it was more likely in frustration and anger than in what was described by “reporters.”

The National Retail Federation got into the act, as is its custom. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay was quoted in his organization’s official press release trying his best:

It was a strong weekend for retailers, but an even better weekend for consumers, who took advantage of some really incredible deals. In fact, over one third of shoppers said 100% of their purchases were on sale.

That is actually a very bad sign for retailers as well as about consumers. While you will hear any number of stories about the huge growth in online sales, the truth is a bit darker since consumers are taking their shopping virtual out of necessity. As the quote above shows, they will shop in the real world only when the price is there.

In the federation’s shopper survey, more than a third of respondents (36 percent) said that 100 percent of what they bought over the weekend was on sale. That compares with 11 percent who said they only purchased discounted merchandise last year.

According to the NRF and others, spending overall is suspect yet again for Black Friday weekend regardless of where the sale was made – at an actual cash register or an internet one. The Federation estimates that total net spending for the four days through yesterday $289.19 per person this year, down from $299.60 last year. In terms of total spending for the whole weekend, the NRF figures $310.86 per person in 2016 as compared to $319.64 in 2015, and $407.02 in 2013. Again, these totals include whatever was purchased wherever it was purchased.

That’s a 24% drop in just three years. Some of the decline is the dispersal of Christmas spending away from just Black Friday alone, as the weekend itself is stripped of some of its marginal importance, but that is the part always left out of the media reports. Americans have become far more frugal out of continuing necessity no matter what the unemployment rate says. That has been especially true of the past several years.

According to the mainstream, wages are rising as is employment, yet there isn’t any detectable effects in the actual numbers, just the commentary meant to frame them in a certain optimistic way. Black Friday in 2014, for example, was a disaster, presaging what was supposed to be “impossible”, which is why everyone wrote it all off as these same shifts in consumer preferences. I wrote just about two years ago that economists and policymakers should have been paying much more attention to that Black Friday message than the unemployment rate that represented a much smaller fraction of America:

There is an undoubted shift in the behavior of consumers, including and especially during the peak retail season between Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, to say that is the sole reason for the decline in actual sales volume is to stretch that truth into (in many cases intentional) utter misdirection. The initial indications from the retail outlets are so far beyond bad, worse than even last year’s decline…

 

In simply holiday sales alone, what happened during Black Friday was not anomalous at all, but rather all too representative of what was to come. It is simply too much to suggest both a growing decline and the timing of it as largely innocuous spending patterns inside an otherwise very healthy economy. There is nothing healthy about this, especially as it captures the movement of spending online.

In other words, Black Friday 2014 was a harbinger of the actual economy that would unfold under the “rising dollar.” Janet Yellen saw GDP was 4% and the unemployment rate falling more quickly than economists had modeled even for a QE3 economy, so her view prevailed despite overwhelming evidence right at that time it was beyond flawed. The economic weakness that developed to start 2015 was never “unexpected”, it was simply rewritten by the media that wanted Janet Yellen to be right.

What is relevant to the economy of 2016 is that Black Friday sales have never recovered since 2014. For the second year since, it seems that holiday spending will remain subdued, perfectly fitting the depression cycle pattern that shows the economy being getting knocked down further by monetary events and never getting back up. That will in all likelihood translate into a sales record as overall Christmas holiday sales will rise slightly from last year, but it is a hollow one because the total gain is likely to be harmfully, painfully small for still another year.

The media being what it is, this will very likely be the last time the data so diverges from the narrative. I have little doubt that next year under a President Trump things will be different; by that I don’t necessarily mean the economy, though there is the smallest hope, I suppose, that a new Trump Presidency gets the one thing right the world needs someone to someday get right (“dollars”). Rather, I strongly suspect that if holiday sales or any sales continue to be subdued during his term that they will actually be described that way.

After eight years of trying to see recovery where there was none, the constant spin of sunshine will very likely disappear on January 20. It is ironic in one sense since it is this very disparity between mainstream “reporting” and actual economic conditions that contributed to the Trump victory in the first place. As Black Fridays for years now, but especially 2014, a great many people were fed up with hearing how wonderful the economy was when they had to scrimp and save and cut back at each and every one. For the last several years, all that has mattered in the media has been the unemployment rate no matter how many times it was shown in the real economy that the statistic was misleading or even invalid.

This is the last holiday where mainstream deference to the employment numbers will be so absurdly absolute. Several years too late, realistic descriptions are set to return to the legacy media.

via http://ift.tt/2fF3gS7 Tyler Durden

Police released footage on Tuesday of what may be the luckiest theft in recent history. In the clip, a man brazenly swipes an 86-pound bucket full of gold worth $1.6 million from the back of an unattended armored truck on West 48th Street in the Diamond District on Sept. 29, in broad daylight, as tourists and locals were walking in and out of the jewelry stores that line the block.

The footage, first obtained by NBC 4 New York showed the man capitalizing on a 20-second window left open by the guards, one of whom was making a pickup while the other was walking to the front seat. The suspect allegedly cased the open Loomis International truck as it parked outside 48 W. 48th St., near Sixth Avenue. Realizing no one was looking, he then grabbed a black 5-gallon bucket carrying 86 pounds of gold flakes bound for Ontario and ran away with it in his arms, police said.

The heist, which was captured on tape, showed the man making off with the 86-pound bucket. Throughout his hour-long escape, he appears to struggle with the gold flakes, stopping to set them down several times and even attempting to carry them on his shoulder at one point.

Surveillance cameras tracked him weaving around a crowded sidewalk and onto Sixth Avenue where he disappears from view. 

The suspect, who hadn’t been arrested as of Wednesday morning, is about 5
feet 6 inches tall, 150 pounds and in his 50s, police said. Cops suspect that the man is lying low in Orlando or Miami until things blow over in the Big Apple. He was last seen wearing a black vest, green shirt, blue jeans and carrying a black messenger bag, police said.

According to the Post, authorities said his actions appeared to be those of a man who was completely unprepared. “I think he just saw an opportunity, took the pail and walked off,” NYPD Detective Martin Pastor told NBC, adding that police believe the sticky-fingered swindler had no idea what he had just scored.

“I think when the lucky charm opened up the bucket, he’d seen the rainbow and seen the gold,” Pastor said.

via http://ift.tt/2gyNs05 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The nannycrats in Brussels face yet another attack on the anti-immigration front: Geert Wilders’ Far-Right Party Tops Polls in the Netherlands.

Geert Wilders, chairman of the Party for Freedom (PVV), has been celebrating on Twitter today. The reason? His party is now the biggest party in the Dutch polls. With elections coming up in March 2017, the populist politician seems to be on track to become the Netherlands’ next prime minister.

 

According to the latest poll of Maurice de Hond, the Netherlands’ most famous pollster, the PVV would become the biggest party in parliament if elections were held today they’d get 33 seats in the 150-seat lower chamber.

 

Wilders is especially well-known for his criticism of Islam and Europe’s open-borders policy, which he routinely — and accurately — describes as suicidal. His main goal is to end “the Islamization” of Europe generally and of the Netherlands specifically.

 

Additionally, Wilders and his party are the most Eurosceptic of all the parties currently in parliament. He is the Netherlands’ very own Nigel Farage, which he once again proved earlier this year when he and his allies won the Dutch referendum on the EU’s upcoming treaty with Ukraine. Wilders campaigned hard against the deal, arguing that it would eventually lead to the poor (and not entirely democratic) Eastern European country joining the European Union. Although proponents of the treaty said that would not be the case, the Dutch voter wasn’t convinced. Wilders and the “no” campaign won.

Poll Results

Above results from Wikipedia: Dutch General Election Polls.

• Since October,  PPV is in a range of 21 to 33
• Since October,  VVD is in a range of 25 to 30
• Since October, PvdA is in a range of 9 to 18
• Since July,  PPV ranged from 21 to 36
• Since July,  VVD ranged from 21 to 30.
• Since July, PvdA ranged from 9 to 19

These results are so volatile and polls in general have been so inaccurate it is difficult to assess.

That said, volatility now appears to be between Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration PVV, and Diederik Samsom’s Labour Party PvdA, with PVV having clear momentum.

The election is planned for March 15, 2017

Current Setup

The 2012 elections saw the Labour Party (PvdA) and People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) go head-to-head for the position of prime minister, gathering enough seats in the process to form an absolute majority. The VVD’s Mark Rutte formed a coalition government with the PvdA, ousting the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) from government, while the Party for Freedom (PVV) went back to full opposition.

 

@V_of_Europe http://pic.twitter.com/WNyHHZVHMf

— Silent Majority (@WinsSilent) November 27, 2016

 

Wilders on Trial

Wilders in currently on trial for charges of inciting discrimination and hatred of Moroccans.

Wilders’ charges relate to an evening in March 2014 when his Freedom party (PVV) narrowly failed to become the largest group on the city council in The Hague.

 

Wilders asked a room packed with supporters and activists if they wanted to have more or fewer Moroccans in the country. To the response of “fewer”, Wilders replied: “Well, we’ll take care of that.”

 

More than 6,000 people filed official complaints to the police about Wilders’ comments and, nine months later, he was formally charged with racial discrimination and inciting hatred. The maximum sentence is two years in prison, although fines and community service orders are more common.

 

On Monday in court, the panel of judges watched video footage of the speech and read out a list of questions that they wanted to put to the PVV leader, such as “What did you intend to gain?”

 

A sample of the 6,474 police complaints was read out in court, with some people saying they had felt “sick”, “angry” and “treated like pariahs” by Wilders’ statements.

 

It is not the first time that Wilders’ public statements have landed him in court. In 2011, he was acquitted of discriminating against, and inciting hatred towards, Muslims in interviews in which he denounced Islam as a “fascist” religion. But the case is stronger this time because his comments were directed against a racial group, according to Henny Sackers, professor of administrative criminal law at Radboud University in Nijmegen.

 

“The European court says you can criticise religion in public even if it shocks, hurts or disturbs,” he said. “In the case of discrimination on grounds of nationality, you can be guilty of an offence in Dutch law if you provoke social unrest. So I see the chances of a conviction for Wilders as being considerably higher than three years ago.

Final Statement

Consider this Final Statement of Geert Wilders at his Trial on November 23.

Members of the court, you are passing judgment on the future of the Netherlands. And I tell you: if you convict me, you will convict half of the Netherlands. And many Dutch will lose their last bit of trust in the rule of law.

 

Of course, I should not have been subjected to this absurd trial. Because this is a political trial. It is a political trial because political issues have to be debated in Parliament and not here. It is a political trial because other politicians — from mostly government parties — who spoke about Moroccans have not been prosecuted. It is a political trial because the court is being abused to settle a political score with an opposition leader whom one cannot defeat in Parliament.

 

This trial here, Mr. President, it stinks. It would be appropriate in Turkey or Iran, where they also drag the opposition to court. It is a charade, an embarrassment for the Netherlands, a mockery of our rule of law.

 

And it is also an unfair trial because, earlier, one of you — Mrs. van Rens — commented negatively on the policy of my party and the successful challenge in the previous Wilders trial. Now, she is going to judge me.

 

What have I actually done to deserve this travesty? I have spoken about fewer Moroccans at a market, and I have asked questions of PVV members during a campaign event. And I did so, members of the court, because we have a huge problem with Moroccans in this country. And almost no-one dares to speak about it or take tough measures. My party alone has been speaking about this problem for years.

 

Just look at these past weeks: Moroccan fortune-seekers stealing and robbing in Groningen, abusing our asylum system, and Moroccan youths terrorizing entire neighborhoods in Maassluis, Ede and Almere. I can give tens of thousands of other examples — almost everyone in the Netherlands knows them or has personally experienced nuisance from criminal Moroccans. If you do not know them, you are living in an ivory tower.

 

I tell you: If we can no longer honestly address problems in the Netherlands, if we are no longer allowed to use the word “alien,” if we, Dutch, are suddenly racists because we want Black Pete to remain black, if we only go unpunished if we want more Moroccans or else are dragged before a criminal court, if we sell out our hard-won freedom of expression, if we use the courts to silence an opposition politician, who threatens to become Prime Minister, then this beautiful country will be doomed. That is unacceptable, because we are Dutch and this is our country.

 

And again, what on earth have I done wrong? How can the fact be justified that I have to stand here as a suspect, as if I robbed a bank or committed murder?

 

I only spoke about Moroccans at a market and asked a question at an election-night meeting. And anyone who has the slightest understanding of politics, knows that the election-night meetings of every party consist of political speeches full of slogans, one-liners and making maximum use of the rules of rhetoric. That is our job. That is the way it works in politics.

 

Election nights are election nights, with rhetoric and political speeches; not university lectures, in which every paragraph is scrutinized for 15 minutes from six points of view. It is simply crazy that the Public Prosecutor now uses this against me, as if one would blame a football player for scoring a hattrick.

 

Indeed, I said at the market, in the beautiful Hague district of Loosduinen: “if possible fewer Moroccans.” Mark that I did so a few minutes after a Moroccan lady came to me and told me she was going to vote PVV because she was sick and tired of the nuisance caused by Moroccan youths.

 

And on election night, I began by asking the PVV audience “Do you want more or less EU,” and I also did not explain in detail why the answer might be less. Namely, because we need to regain our sovereignty and reassert control over our own money, our own laws and our own borders. I did not do that.

 

Then, I asked the public “Do you want more or less Labour Party.” And, again, I did not explain in detail why the answer might be less. Namely, because they are the biggest cultural relativists, willfully blind and Islam-hugging cowards in Parliament. I did not say that.

 

And then I asked, “Do you want more or fewer Moroccans,” and again, I did not explain in detail why the answer might be fewer. Namely, because people with Moroccan nationality are overrepresented in the Netherlands in crime, benefit dependency and terror. And that we want to achieve this by expelling criminals with Moroccan nationality after denaturalizing them of their Dutch nationality, by a stricter immigration policy and an active voluntary repatriation policy. Proposals that we have made in our election manifesto from the day I founded the Party for Freedom.

 

I explained this in several interviews on national television, both between the statement at the market and election night, as well as on election night a few moments after I had asked the said questions. It is extremely malicious and false of the Public Prosecutor to want to disregard that context.

 

Disgusting — I have no other words for it — are the actions of other politicians, including the man who for a few months may still call himself Prime Minister. Their, and especially his, actions after the said election night constituted real persecution, a witch hunt. The government created an atmosphere in which it had to come to trial.

 

Prime Minister Rutte even told small children during the youth news that I wanted to expel them, and then reassured them that this would not happen. As if I had said anything of that kind. It is almost impossible to behave viler and falser.

 

….

 

Two representative polls, one commissioned by the PVV, the other commissioned by De Volkskrant, showed that, apart from the government and media elite, 43% of the Dutch people, around 7 million people, agree with me. Want fewer Moroccans. You will be very busy if the Public Prosecutor is going to prosecute all these 7 million people.

 

People will never understand that other politicians — especially from government parties — and civil servants who have spoken about Moroccans, Turks and even PVV members, are being left alone and not prosecuted by the Public Prosecutor.

 

Like Labour leader Samsom, who said that Moroccan youths have a monopoly on ethnic nuisance.

 

Or Labour chairman Spekman, who said Moroccans should be humiliated.

 

Or Labour alderman Oudkerk, who spoke about f*cking Moroccans.

 

Or Prime Minister Rutte, who said that Turks should get lost.

 

And what about police chief Joop van Riessen, who said about me on television — I quote literally: “Basically one would feel inclined to say: let’s kill him, just get rid of him now and he will never surface again”?

 

And in reference to PVV voters, van Riessen declared: “Those people must be deported, they no longer belong here.” End of quote. The police chief said that killing Wilders was a normal reaction. That is hatred, Mr. President, pure hatred — and not by us, but against us. And the Public Prosecutor did not prosecute Mr. Van Riessen.

 

But the Public Prosecutor does prosecute me. And demands a conviction based on nonsensical arguments about race and concepts that are not even in the law. It accuses and suspects me of insulting a group and inciting hatred and discrimination on grounds of race. How much crazier can it become? Race. What race?

 

I spoke and asked a question about Moroccans. Moroccans are not a race. Who makes this up? No-one at home understands that Moroccans have suddenly become a race. This is utter nonsense. Not a single nationality is a race. Belgians are no race, Americans are no race. Stop this nonsense, I say to the Public Prosecutor. I am not a racist and neither are my voters. How do you dare suggest that? Wrongly slandering millions of people as racists.

 

And now the Public Prosecutor also uses the vague concept of “intolerance.” Yet another stupidity. The subjective word intolerance, however, is not even mentioned in the law. And what for heaven’s sake is intolerance? Are you going to decide that, members of the court?

 

…

 

By asking for a conviction, the Public Prosecutor, as an accomplice of the established order, as a puppet of the government, asks to silence an opposition politician. And, hence, silence millions of Dutch. I tell you: The problems with Moroccans will not be solved this way, but will only increase.

 

For people will sooner be silent and say less because they are afraid of being called racist, because they are afraid of being sentenced. If I am convicted, then everyone who says anything about Moroccans will fear to be called a racist.

 

And I tell you, the battle of the elite against the people will be won by the people. Here, too, you will not be able to stop this, but rather accelerate it. We will win, the Dutch people will win, and it will be remembered well who was on the right side of history.

 

Common sense will prevail over politically correct arrogance. Because everywhere in the West, we are witnessing the same phenomenon.

 

The voice of freedom cannot be imprisoned; it rings like a bell. Everywhere, ever more people are saying what they think. They do not want to lose their land, they do not want to lose their freedom.

 

They demand politicians who take them seriously, who listen to them, who speak on their behalf. It is a genuine democratic revolt. The wind of change and renewal blows everywhere. Including here, in the Netherlands.

 

As I said:

 

I am standing here on behalf of millions of Dutch citizens.
I do not speak just on behalf of myself.
My voice is the voice of many.

And, so, I ask you, not only on behalf of myself, but in the name of all those Dutch citizens:

Acquit me! Acquit us!

Political Witch Hunt

Like Wilders or not, this trial is a sham, a political witch hunt so that prime minister Mark Rutte can stay in power.

It may even backfire.

Many questions remain, and there has been scant news on this political witch hunt since he made his closing statement.

via http://ift.tt/2glIS7S Tyler Durden

Gold futures prices dropped to $1,171 this morning as the dollar surged into the European closed and the OPEC deal sent oil prices spiking. The precious metal is now unchanged since October 2014, but as UBS notes is dramatically oversold at current levels.

 

 

Gold is unchanged since Oct 2014…

 

UBS notes that last week’s break below $1200 does not change our view on gold. The recent undershooting below $1240 and $1200 we continue to see as an extension of the summer correction (based on the overshooting in rates and therefore rising real rates), instead of starting a new major breakdown. With the break of the 2012 downtrend in US inflation expectations but expecting a pullback in yields into Q1, it should be just a question of time to see a new bounce/rally starting in gold/gold mines.

A re-break above $1200 would suggest increasing evidence that a more important tactical bottom is in place.

via http://ift.tt/2fS0yam Tyler Durden

India’s demonetization campaign is not going as expected.

Overnight, banks played down expectations of a dramatic improvement in currency availability, raising the prospect of queues lengthening as salaries get paid and people look to withdraw money from their accounts the Economic Times reported. 

While much of India has become habituated to the sight of people lining up at banks and cash dispensers since the November 8 demonetisation announcement, bank officials said the message from the Reserve Bank of India is that supplies may not get any easier in the near future and that they should push digital transactions.  “We had sought a hearing with RBI as we were not allocated enough cash, but we were told that rationing of cash may continue for some time,” said a banker who was present at one of several meetings with central bank officials.

“Reserve Bank has asked us to push the use of digital channels to all our customers and ensure that we bring down use of cash in the economy,” said a banker. This confirms a previous report according to which the demonstization campaign has been a not so subtle attempt to impose digital currency on the entire population.

Bankers have been making several trips to the central bank’s headquarters in Mumbai to get a sense of whether currency availability will improve.  Some automated teller machines haven’t been filled even once since the old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes ceased to be legal tender, they said.  Typically, households pay milkmen, domestic helps, drivers, etc, at the start of the month in cash. The idea is that all these payments should become electronic, using computers or mobiles.

This strategy however, appears to not have been conveyed to the public, and as Bloomberg adds, “bankers are bracing for long hours and angry mobs as pay day approaches in India.”

“Already people who are frustrated are locking branches from outside in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu and abusing staff as enough cash is not available,” said CH Venkatachalam, general secretary of the All India Bank Employees’ Association. The group has sought police protection at bank branches for the next 10 days, he added.

Joining many others who have slammed Modi’s decision, the banker said that “this is the fallout of one of the worst planned and executed government decisions in decades.” He estimates that about 20 million people – almost twice the population of Greece – will queue up at bank branches and ATMs over the coming week, when most employers in India pay their staff. In an economy where 98 percent of consumer payments are in cash, banks are functioning with about half the amount of currency they need.

As Bloomberg notes, retaining public support is crucial for Modi before key state elections next year and a national contest in 2019, however it appears he is starting to lose it.

“We are bracing ourselves for payday and fearing the worst,” said Parthasarathi Mukherjee, chief executive officer at Chennai-based Laxmi Vilas Bank Ltd. “If we run out of cash we will have to approach the Reserve Bank of India for more. It is tough.”

* * *

The ongoing cash shortages follow Modi’s Nov. 8 unexpected decision to ban 500 and 1,000 rupee ($15) notes, a decision that sucked out 86% of currency in circulation and blindsided the nation. Bank officials reported that most top banks in the financial heart of Mumbai are now starting the day with anywhere between 800 million rupees to 1.2 billion rupees of cash, instead of the typical 1.5 billion rupees. 

These currency chests are then shared with several branches, which are rationing supplies. Withdrawals are capped at 10,000 rupees per person instead of the 24,000 rupees limit set by the government, said a manager at a state-run Bank of India branch in the eastern state of Jharkhand.

In a Mumbai suburb, a branch of the nation’s largest lender, State Bank of India, was starting the day with about 600,000 rupees of cash that will run out in about an hour, compared with the 1.5 million they’d typically have, the manager said. in what has clearly become a physical cash run.

Shortage of cash in ATMs continues

* * *

To be sure, many employers are scrambling to adapt to the new cash-lite regime: “with pay day around the corner a lot of small and medium-sized companies are opting for prepaid cards over cash payments,” said Naveen Surya, managing director of payments solutions company Itz Cash Card Ltd., who’s also chairman of the representative body Payments Council of India. “More than five million of these cards have been sold in India in the last one week” and sales of 40 million more are expected through December, he said.

Ride-sharing service Ola has partnered with fuel companies to help drivers get e-vouchers to fill up their tanks at Bharat Petroleum Corp. pumps in Bengaluru, the company said in a statement. Paytm, India’s largest digital wallet startup, has noticed a doubling in online recharges including a trend where individuals top up multiple mobile phones to help friends and family, the company said in its statement. Additionally, as Goldman notes, Paytm has experienced a 500% surge in daily user
growth since the currency reform, according to The Indian Express.

Searches on ‘Paytm’ and ‘ATM queues’ still elevated

The government, too, is urging electronic payments. Card payment facilities were introduced in parliament’s dining hall on Wednesday, the Press Trust of India reported, citing Parliament’s Food Committee Chairman A P Jithender Reddy.

While large companies such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp. make 99 percent of their pay outs electronically, it still needs to work out a system with smaller sub-contractors, said finance director J. Ramaswamy. Indian Oil Corp. is opening State Bank of India accounts for all laborers at its Paradip refinery, Dharmendra Pradhan, India’s oil minister, said on Nov. 29 in New Delhi.

“I will request all our companies to encourage bank transfers for all such payments,” Pradhan said.

Alas, as we warned previously, for a nation that remains vastly cash-based – and where 98% of consumer payments are in cash – any transition from physical to digital money will take far, far longer than the timeframe Modi has allotted himself for the demonetization transformation and, as we reported previously, it is only a matter of time before India’s economy becomes crippled by money shortages to the point where not only India’s economic output but the government itself will be in jeopardy.

To get a sense of India’s now-three week long cash-run realitys, courtesy of one of our contacts on the ground in India, here are photos of lines in front on Indian ATMs and banks, taken this morning between 10 and 10:30 am.

via http://ift.tt/2glxYyK Tyler Durden

Mortgage applications tumbled 9.4% from the prior week as mortgage rates soared above 4.00% to the highest level since July 2015. The biggest driver of the decline in mortgage demand was a 16% crash in refinances – tumbling to their lowest level since the first week of January (a seasonally dismal time).

 

 

This plunge is notably worse than seaonal norms would suggest and also implies more is to come…

 

None of which bodes well for the soaring homebuilder stocks…

 

Just don't tell Janet.

via http://ift.tt/2gLdP2i Tyler Durden

The Fed’s latest Beige Book released Wednesday found seven regional Fed districts reporting economic activity as growing at a modest or moderate pace, a decline from 11 in the last report, with strong dollar headwinds among one of the more frequently cited reasons for the weakness.

While the Beige Book information was collected up until Nov. 18, 10  days after the U.S. elections, uncertainty about the influence on politics on economic activity was cited eight times in the report. 

“Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that  the economy continued to expand across most regions from early October  through mid-November,” the Current Economic Conditions report known as  the Beige Book said. The report will be presented at the upcoming  Federal Open Market Committee meeting Dec. 13-14.

The Beige Book did shed light on some issues the FOMC will take into consideration as they chart the path of the fed funds rate into the coming year.

The report showed “demand for manufactured products was mixed during the current reporting period, with the strong dollar being cited as a headwind to more robust demand in a few districts.”

Of note, echoing recent comments by Fed officials, the strong dollar was cited as a headwind to more robust demand in a few districts. Some more examples:

• Outlooks were generally positive, although the strong dollar continued to depress exports of manufactured goods in some Districts
• For steel, demand fell in the Cleveland District and production weakened in the San Francisco District, where contacts noted that the elevated dollar, strong global production, and weak economic growth held back exports.
• The strength of the dollar reduced spending by international customers in the Boston, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts. Reports on automobile sales were mixed.
• One contact had poor results in stores near the Canadian border because of the strong U.S. dollar but experienced mid-to-upper single digit sales increases in locations where the exchange rate was not a factor.
• Factors tempering output growth for other manufacturing industries include lower business fixed investment, the strong dollar, and weakness in the energy sector.
• A transportation source reported that truck and railroad services experienced sluggishness due to excess capacity and the strong dollar.
• District retailers reported relatively flat sales growth compared with the same time period last year. Some contacts noted that international customers were spending less due to the strength of the dollar.
• Contacts continued to point to lower exports as a headwind, citing challenges with international demand due to the strong dollar.
• Gulf Coast chemical producers saw mixed demand, in line with the headwinds of a strong dollar and moderating international demand.
• Contacts noted slowing sales growth in border cities due to the sustained impact from the strong value of the dollar, and one contact noted continued sales declines at stores in the oil patch.
• E-commerce sales continued to boost domestic shipping volumes, while demand from the export sector remained weak due to the elevated dollar.
•  Steel production weakened over the reporting period as the elevated dollar, strong global production, and weak global economic growth held back exports
• On balance, the elevated dollar continued to slow most exports, particularly for raisins, where global inventories remain elevated.

Elsewhere, Richmond and St. Louis contacts suggested “softening vehicle sales might be attributed to uncertainty surrounding the presidential election,” the report said. A staffing firm in the Cleveland district cited election uncertainty as a reason placement was down, while Cleveland area retailers are looking for sales to improve “with the presidential election behind them and the holiday shopping season approaching.”

The Federal Reserve also Wednesday announced changes to the report’s format beginning in January. The changes are designed to “standardize specific core topics included in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank District reports, provide a more consistent presentation of the national summary, and enhance the design of the publication,” the Fed said in a separate press release.

A tightening in labor market conditions was reported by seven Districts, with modest employment growth on balance

Here are select anecdotes from various districts covered by the beige book:

Boston: Contacts expressed some uncertainty about whether the strong international travel numbers will continue in 2017, especially for leisure travelers, if the U.S. dollar remains strong against other major currencies. A specialty chemical manufacturer, said that finding hourly workers was exceedingly difficult. This contact said that only one out of every three or four hourly hires works out; the problem is absenteeism, with many workers unable or unwilling to work five days in a row. Another respondent said that eight out of ten potential hourly hires either cannot pass a drug test or cannot pass a simple math test.

New York: New York City’s rental market has been mostly steady, except at the high end, where the inventory has risen and rents have drifted down. Landlord concessions have grown increasingly prevalent, especially in Manhattan and Brooklyn

Philadelphia: Mountain resort areas reported strong bookings for the remainder of the year, while convention bookings are reported as strong for the first quarter of next year.

Cleveland: Two contacts said that firms are postponing investment decisions until more is known about the tax policies of the incoming president.Input costs rose since our last report primarily because of increasing prices for raw materials and employee health insurance.

Richmond: A port official said that flooding in the Carolinas caused by Hurricane Matthew had delayed some agricultural exports. Since the opening of the new Panama Canal locks, some ports reported a decline in vessel calls while container volume increased. The general manager at an inland hotel reported that all hotels in town were fully booked during the hurricane and remained booked with FEMA personnel several weeks after the storm.

Atlanta: Contacts from the medical field noted accelerating nursing shortages. In response to the challenges finding workers, a number of firms continued to engage in partnerships with community colleges and workforce development organizations to develop customized training programs and internship opportunities, or to invest in automation to replace difficult-to-fill jobs.

Chicago: Contacts continue to indicate that the labor market is tight and that it is getting more and more difficult to fill positions at any skill level.

St. Louis: Over half of contacts reported wages were higher or slightly higher than during the same period last year, and 60 percent reported increasing wages and salaries to attract or retain employees, particularly those in professional and technical, production, and administrative positions.

Minneapolis: Tourism activity was strong overall for this transitional season. In Helena, Mont., big game hunting licenses sold out for nonresident hunters, a change from previous years. The increase was attributed to higher numbers of deer and elk, along with improvements in the overall economy, according to a state official.

Kansas City: Due to weaker agricultural credit conditions and increased risk in the farm sector, District contacts reported notable increases in collateral requirements and slight increases in interest rates on farm loans.

Dallas: Energy firms noted that layoffs were mostly done, however there is little hope for recovery in employment levels in 2017 if oil prices do not increase above $50.

San Francisco: Contacts reported that demand for health-care services remained strong, but the election outcome had greatly increased uncertainty around the Affordable Care Act and raised concerns about the possibility of slower industry growth and cutbacks in the near term.In response to recent minimum wage increases, some restaurants in Southern California are actively considering replacing tips with a mandatory service charge that would be distributed equitably among staff. Contacts expect real estate investment by foreign buyers to pick up in the Pacific Northwest following the recent enactment of a tax on foreign buyers in Vancouver, Canada.

via http://ift.tt/2fEvBrH Tyler Durden