Deutsche Bank Says Goldman Will Soar Under Trumpenomics

The greatness of The Donald is being praised and lauded almost everywhere. That’s odd, just one month ago he was depicted by the media and most investment banks are the devil, literally.

Deutsche Bank is out with a note this morning, suggesting shares of $GS are about to soar — thanks to a rip roaring economy and widening spreads.

source: CNBC

The rally in bank stocks has priced in higher interest rates, but there is much more upside in the sector’s shares from the economic growth that will come from the Trump administration’s plans for deregulation and lower taxes, according to Deutsche Bank. Goldman Sachs will be one of the particular beneficiaries of the second part of this rally, Deutsche said, upgrading the share to buy from hold.

“GS seems well positioned for a stronger macro environment given revenue upside, good cost control and a valuation below peers (despite similar/higher current and expected returns),” wrote analyst Matt O’Connor in a note Tuesday.

“A stronger economy should benefit many capital market businesses—incl advisory, equity capital markets, and both fixed and equity trading (all areas of strength at GS). This should also be a positive backdrop for investing and lending (even assuming no regulatory changes).”

The analyst raised his 12-month price target to $255 a share from $180. The new forecast represents a 20 percent increase from Goldman’s Tuesday’s close.

“GS shares have mostly kept pace in the post election rally, but this was after lagging peers since the February lows (GS shares are up 50% since the 2/11 bottom vs. a ~60% rise for Market Sensitives on average),” stated the note.

“We sense that leverage to higher rates is mostly reflected in stock prices, but that higher lending and fee volumes from a stronger economy may not be,” stated O’Connor.

The analyst said he believes there is a total of 25 to 30 percent earnings upside for the banking sector based on “a combination of stronger economic growth (better loan growth and fee revenues), higher interest rates (driving higher net interest margins), less regulation and lower tax rates.”

With Goldman’s Mnuchin being tapped as the new Treasury Secretary, it appears the great vampire squid wins again — in spite of their best efforts to support Hillary Clinton and prevent Trump from taking office.

img_5751

They seem to be doing quite well.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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Vienna Shocker: Indonesia Suspended From OPEC

As expected, the OPEC headlines continue to come in hot and heavy, with Reuters reporting first that Saudi Arabia has agreed to an output cut of roughly 500kbps to 10.06mmbpd.

  • SAUDI TO CUT OIL OUTPUT TO 10.06 MLN BPD – OPEC SOURCE

This brings Saudi production to levels last seen in January. Additionally, Iran is said to have agreed to a production cap of just under 3.8MM bpd, which also appears to be below what was speculated just moments ago, or 3.9mmbpd.

  • OPEC SOURCE SAYS IRAN PRODUCTION TO BE SET AT 3.797 MLN BPD UNDER NEW OPEC CEILING

But the most shocking announcement is that Indonesia appears to have been suspended from OPEC, and that its oil output, which according to the latest OPEC monthly report was 722kpd, will be distributed among other OPEC nations, in what may amount to a production “shuffle” not a cut:

  • OPEC SOURCE SAYS INDONESIA SUSPENDED FROM OPEC
  • OPEC SOURCE SAYS OPEC AGREED TO DISTRIBUTE INDONESIA OIL OUTPUT SHARE AMONG SOME OPEC COUNTRIES: RTRS

The question then arises if Indonesia was suspended from OPEC because they wouldn’t agree to cuts?  Since all votes must be unanimous under OPEC rules, this might be a way to force a deal. If they won’t cut (or, in the case of Iran, be allowed to increase to 3.975), then they’re out. Also, with its share being redistributed, does that now mean that the production freeze cap is effectively 700kpd higher than prior to the expulsion.

Finally, according to a JBC report, OPEC output rose once gain in November, hitting 34.06mmbpd, up from the official 33.643mmbpd as of October.

  • OPEC NOV. CRUDE OUTPUT RISES ON MONTH TO 34.06M B/D: JBC
  • SAUDI ARABIA NOV. CRUDE OUTPUT FALLS M/M TO 10.55M B/D: JBC

Summarizing the above, Bloomberg’s Julian Lee writes that OPEC output rose by another 220,000 barrels a day between October and November, according to estimates published by Vienna-based JBC Energy. Total OPEC up from 33.84 million to 34.06 million. That means the actual output cut will have to be bigger than announced to get the total down to 32.5 million.

And another, more cynica summary:

There is much to process, and the market’s kneejerk reaction has been to fade the latest set of headlines, perhaps in anticipation of the upcoming shale production surge.

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Official Recount Petition Filed In Nevada By Rocky De La Fuente; Vows Florida Recount Up Next

Just when you thought the post-election recount circus couldn’t get any more ridiculous, it has.  Per NBC, Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente, an independent 2016 U.S. presidential candidate, has officially filed a recount petition with the Secretary of State of Nevada requesting recounts in 93 precincts.  Rocky won 2,552 votes in the state of Nevada or roughly 0.23% of the total. 

Under Nevada law, officials are only required to recount the votes of the petitioner and the winner of the election.  Then, only if a discrepancy of 1% or more is found in vote totals does a full statewide recount occur.

“…My only interest is to create a nationwide awareness of the vulnerability of our election system and to do everything possible to assure that your vote counts for the candidate for whom it is cast,” he said.

 

Under Nevada law, any candidate can request a recount of the votes, but officials would only determine the number of votes received for the requesting candidate and the person who won the election. The requester would also have to cover the estimated cost of a recount in advance.

 

In De La Fuente’s petition to the secretary of state’s office, obtained by reporter Jon Ralston, he asks for recounts in 93 precincts, or about 5 percent of the statewide precincts. All but eight are in Clark County.

 

The recount would have to find a discrepancy of at least 1 percent for either Clinton or De La Fuente from the votes tallied in the original canvass to move forward. The secretary of state would then determine if a full statewide recount should be ordered, according to state law.

 

A recount is required to begin five days after a request is made, and it must be finished five days after it begins.

As a reminder, Hillary was the projected winner in Nevada by about 26,000 votes or 2.4%.

Nevada Results

 

Rocky has also vowed to launch a recount in Florida.

But unlike Jill Stein who launched a massive fundraising scam to fund her recount efforts, Rocky has asked Nevada to just throw the charges on his “AMEX.”

Nevada

Here is the full Nevada petition as filed by Rocky:

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Can States Reduce Unreasonable Pensions? California Supreme Court Will Review

The California Supreme Court will review a lower court ruling that tossed a longstanding rule preventing public sector pensions from being reduced in any way.

It’s a case that could have far-reaching consequences. The ruling would apply only to California, but if the state Supreme Court decides to uphold a lower court ruling that pension benefits can be reduced in some circumstances, it would be an important signal to the many other states grappling with unsustainable pension burdens and similar rules forbidding benefit cuts. It would also signal that courts are willing to reconsider the balance between public workers and the states (and the taxpayers in those states) writing their checks.

“A ruling that works against the California Rule would certainly be noticed in other places,” said Len Gilroy, director of government refom at the Reason Foundation, which publishes this blog. “Certainly, you have state courts that watch each other in terms of interpretation and precedent.”

The case has its origins in a pension reform measure passed in 2012 by the California state legislature. Marin County, just north of San Francisco, used that law to reduce pension benefits for some of their employees by refusing to allow them to cash-in unused vacation days, sick days, and other benefits in exchange for a larger pension payout. This is known as “pension spiking” because it allows employees to claim a significantly higher final salary prior to retirement—the basis for benefits in many pension systems.

In August, a state appeals court ruled that Marin County was within its authority to make those changes as a way to reduce pension spiking, but that wasn’t all. In the unanimous opinion, Judge James Richman seemingly opened the door to further reforms that could help state and local governments get their massive pension debts under control.

“While a public employee does have a ‘vested right’ to a pension,” he wrote. “That right is only to a ‘reasonable’ pension—not an immutable entitlement to the most optimal formula of calculating a pension. And the legislature may, prior to an employee’s retirement, alter the formula, thereby reducing the anticipated pension.”

As long as those modifications do not deprive public workers of “reasonable” pensions, Richman concluded, they do not violate California’s constitutional prohibition against reducing pension benefits—a measure known as the “California Rule” that can be found in several other states, either as a constitutional provision or a state law.

Labor unions appealed that ruling and the state’s highest court decided on Nov. 22 to accept the appeal. A ruling isn’t likely until next year.

Either way, the outcome will be important for other states.

“California because of its size tends to be a bellwether state in many areas including public pensions,” Rick Dreyfuss, a retired actuary and senior fellow on pension issues for the Commonwealth Foundation, a Pennsylvania-based think tank, told Reason via email. “Therefore, I would expect the ruling would be used by the prevailing side to further leverage a similar outcome in other states.”

If the California Supreme Court upholds the lower court ruling, Dreyfuss said, it would introduce a whole new dimension to policy discussions over pensions: the question of what counts as a “reasonable” one.

The answer to that question is anyone’s guess at the moment, but it could mean the end of the gravy train for many public workers. According to data from Transparent Califrornia, a project of the Nevada Policy Research Group, more than 20,000 retired public workers in California pulled down more than $100,000 in retirement benefits during 2015. Meanwhile, the CalPERS pension fund is more than $139 billion in the red, an amount that would require every man, woman, and child in California to pay $11,000 if it were divided evenly.

Denting the power of the California Rule would be a significant step towards helping cities and states get out from under the crushing debt of future pension bills.

As Steve Greenhut wrote in Reason shortly after the August ruling in the appeals court, the so-called California Rule isn’t really a rule, but “a precedent derived from a variety of rulings that date back to 1955. Ultimately, it says that once a legislative body (city council, board of supervisors, the state Legislature) grants a pension-benefit increase, that increase is indeed immutable; it can never be rolled back. Employees can never be forced to contribute more to their pension plan unless they get something of equal or greater value in return.”

In short: under the California Rule, states are obligated to come up with the money to pay their pension promises, no matter what other services have to be reduced or what taxes must be raised.

If the California Supreme Court upholds Judge Richman’s ruling, “the legal door will be open for Californians to begin to take reasonable actions to save pension systems and local governments from fiscal disaster,” said former San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed, who now serves as a board member on the Retirement Security Initiative, a national group working to ensure the sustainability of public pension plans.

“The importance of it is the flexibility that you have as an employer to make prudent benefit adjustments relevant to circumstances like the solvency of the fund,” said Gilroy. “That’s an important thing.”

Illinois, which has more than $110 billion of unfunded pension debt, the highest such total in the country, discovered the hard way how the California Rule can limit that flexibility. It’s one of several states to have a version of the California Rule written directly into the state constitution, and it was that constitutional prohibition against reducing pension benefits that sank a 2013 pension effort by Gov. Pat Quinn to reduce annual cost of living adjustments for Illinois public workers.

Without changes, Illinois could be the first state to go over the pension cliff, but New Jersey and others are close behind. Chicago is already getting close to the edge. In California, the cities of Stockton and Vallejo have gone through bankruptcy to deal with pension costs.

Striking a legal blow against the so-called California Rule won’t fix the pension crisis, but might make the problem a little easier to tackle.

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US Savings Rate Surged Pre-Election As Spending Slowed, Weakens Q3 GDP

After an upwardly revised September surge, US personal spending growth slowed to just 0.3% in October and with incomes rising more than expected (+0.6% vs +0.4% exp), it appears Americans were careful heading into the election as the savings rate surged from 5.7% to 6.0%.

However, the weaker than expected growth in spending will likely knock Q3 GDP revisions lower.

Both spending and income continue to rise…

 

But pre-Election it appears Americans were more cautious

 

Full Breakdown:

Personal income increased 0.6 percent in October after increasing 0.4 percent in September. Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, increased 0.5 percent in October—the same increase as in September.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI), after-tax income, increased 0.6 percent in October after increasing 0.4 percent in September. Real DPI, income adjusted for taxes and inflation, increased 0.4 percent in October after increasing 0.2 percent in September.

Real consumer spending (PCE), spending adjusted for price changes, increased 0.1 percent in October after increasing 0.5 percent in September. Spending on durable goods increased 1.0 percent in October after increasing 2.6 percent in September.

PCE prices increased 0.2 percent in October—the same increase as in September. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices increased 0.1 percent in October—the same increase as in September.

Personal saving rate: the personal saving as a percent of DPI was 6.0 percent in October and 5.7 percent in September.

 

This is the 7th month in a row of annual growth in spending topping income growth…


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There Will Be Swamp – Steve Mnuchin Confirms Treasury Secretary Nod

screen-shot-2016-11-30-at-6-35-49-am

While I’m not a Dodd-Frank fan, it’s not because it was too harsh, but because it didn’t really do much of anything. It was the typical neoliberal bait and switch, designed to look tough for public consumption, while merely making tweaks around the edges of a financial system that requires systemic, paradigm level change.

Trump’s support of repealing Dodd-Frank tells you all you need to know. A Trump Presidency will see Wall Street felons who should be in prison, running as wild and free as ever.

He will be the same thing to distressed working class whites that Obama was to the black community. A fake messiah and a shyster.

– From May’s post: Donald Trump’s True Colors Emerge as He Snuggles up to Wall Street

The fact that Steve Mnuchin was a Goldman Sachs partner is the least of my concerns when it comes to the man. Indeed, if someone wanted to create a playing card deck of sleazy Wall Street financial crisis opportunists, it’d be hard not to include Steve Mnuchin.

What exactly am I talking about? Specifically, I’m referring to the collapse of IndyMac (renamed One West), and the generous helping of government welfare Mnuchin and his partners received upon purchasing the failed banking institution. This is a financial crisis saga that is unknown to most, despite having received some extensive coverage over the past year. One of the best articles on the topic was written by David Dayen in his piece, Donald Trump’s Finance Chair Is the Anti-Populist From Hell. Here are a few excerpts:

Donald Trump’s first major staff selection since securing the Republican nomination, national finance chairman Steven Mnuchin, co-founded and manages the hedge fund Dune Capital. Not only did he make partner at Goldman Sachs, so did his father in the 1960s. With over 30 years of experience at the top levels of finance, Mnuchin was present for every recent major banking innovation, including those that brought the country to the brink of economic collapse.

Mnuchin’s presence in the campaign reveals how the qualities Trump loyalists projected on their hero don’t measure up to the truth. They have venerated him throughout the Republican primary for rejecting the dirty business of pay-to-play politics, and for populist vows to protect the ordinary worker. But in selecting Mnuchin, not only has Trump submitted to the realities of presidential campaign finance; he’s chosen one of the most notorious bankers in America to carry it out.

continue reading

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ISIS Claims Ohio State Attack, Trump Will Leave His Business, Texas Abortion Docs Must Bury Fetuses: A.M. Links

  • The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack at the Ohio State University, carried out by student Abdul Razak Ali Artan. “The executor of the attack in the American state of Ohio is a soldier of the Islamic State and he carried out the operation in response to calls to target citizens of international coalition countries,” the ISIS news agency said.
  • The Ohio State attack has spawned debate in the Buckeye legislature over whether campuses should permit concealed carry.
  • Donald Trump and Mitt Romney shared some garlic soup and frog legs in New York yesterday and the resulting photo evidence is beautiful. Romney did not say what the men discussed but told reporters the dinner had been “wonderful” and “enlightening and interesting and engaging.”
  • Trump announced via Twitter Wednesday morning that he would be “leaving [his] great business in total in order to fully focus on running the country in order to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content.

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OPEC Agrees To Cut Oil Production By 1.2 Million Barrels A Day, Details Pending

The much anticipated headline is out and, as Bloomberg reports, OPEC has reached a deal agreeing to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5mmbpd, according to a delegate.

  • OPEC REACHES AGREEMENT TO CUT OIL OUTPUT: DELEGATE
  • OPEC AGREES TO CUT OUTPUT BY 1.2M B/D TO 32.5M B/D: DELEGATE

We now await the details of who will cut and by how much, how will the production cuts be implemented and supervised, and whether the deal is conditional on Non-OPEC, mostly Russia, participation. Having soared over 7% in advance of the announcement, crude remained near its highs of the day.  The front-month Brent contract also resumes climb, trading $3.55 higher at $49.93.

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ADP Employment Report Jumps Most In 5 Months After Trump Win

Following October’s disappointment (+147k), November’s ADP employment printed a much better than expected 216k (over 170k exp), thanks to a notable downward revision to October to 119k. Goods-producing jobs dropped once again (-11k) with a renewed surge in services employment (+228k). While this November post-Trump spike is noteworthy (highest in 5 months), there continues to be a medium-term trend of weakening job growth in America.

A good post-trump spike, but the 24-month trend continues to deteriorate:

 

Spot the odd one out…

 

From the report:

“For the month of November 2016 we saw very strong job growth that has almost doubled in gains over October 2016,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “This growth was seen in primarily consumer-driven industries like retail and, leisure and hospitality – across all company sizes. Overall, consumers are feeling confident and are driving the strong performance we currently see in the job market.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses hired aggressively in November and there is little evidence that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election dampened hiring. In addition, because of the tightening labor market, retailers may be accelerating seasonal hiring to secure an adequate workforce to meet holiday demand, although total expected seasonal hiring may be no higher than last year’s.”

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Breakdown:

 

Full Infographic…

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 216,000 Jobs in November

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FDA Approves Final Stage of MDMA Drug Trials

More than three decades after the Drug Enforcement Administration banned MDMA, federal regulators have approved research that could make the compound legally available as a psychotherapeutic catalyst by 2021. The New York Times reports that researchers studying MDMA as a treatment for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) yesterday received permission from the Food and Drug Administration for Phase 3 clinical trials, the final step before approval of a new medicine.

The Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS), which is sponsoring the research, funded six Phase 2 studies involving a total of 130 subjects. Hundreds of subjects will participate in the next phase.

In one Phase 2 study, scores on the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale fell by almost two-thirds, on average, among 19 subjects who underwent MDMA-assisted psychotherapy. A follow-up study found that the improvements generally persisted an average of almost four years later.

“It changed my life,” an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran who participated in one of the Phase 2 trials told the Times. “It allowed me to see my trauma without fear or hesitation and finally process things and move forward.” Another subject, a firefighter traumatized by “years of responding to gory accidents,” said MDMA-assisted psychotherapy “gave me my life back.”

The psychotherapeutic potential of MDMA, which enhances empathy, reduces fear, and encourages openness, was apparent back in the late 1970s and early ’80s, when the drug gained a following among psychiatrists. But once it was dubbed Ecstasy and became popular as a party drug, its fate was sealed. Like marijuana, LSD, and psilocybin, it has only recently re-emerged as a subject of legitimate medical research.

Reason TV covers the MAPS-sponsored MDMA research:

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