Trump Threatens Flag-Burning Americans With Loss Of Citizenship Or Jail

With snowflakes everywhere across America seemingly content to burn the Stars & Stripes to protest democracy’s decision to elect what they have been told is a racist, homophobic, anti-semitic, sexist, tax-fraud as president…

President-elect Donald Trump has put his foot down in this seemingly most unpatriotic of endeavors…

All of which seems quite fair.

And before the liberal media gets hold of this tweet and claims Trump’s fascist tyranny is peaking through against constitutionally protected rights to do whatever a citizen wants, don’t forget that none other than the messiah herself – Hillary Clinton – sposnored exactly these punishments in The Flag Protection Act of 2005…

The Flag Protection Act of 2005 was a proposed United States federal law introduced by Senators Hillary Clinton and Robert Bennett. The law would have outlawed flag burning, and called for a punishment of one year in jail and a fine of $100,000. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, the act was summarized as such:

Amends the federal criminal code to revise provisions regarding desecration of the flag to prohibit: (1) destroying or damaging a U.S. flag with the primary purpose and intent to incite or produce imminent violence or a breach of the peace; or (2) stealing or knowingly converting the use of a U.S. flag either belonging to the United States or on lands reserved for the United States and intentionally destroying or damaging that flag.

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Is Advance-Decline Line Divergence A Big Deal? (Spoiler Alert: Yes)

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Non-confirmations by the NYSE Advance-Decline Line of new market highs have often signaled major trouble for stocks – will it be the case this time?

In some ways, the post-election “Trump Rally” has been among the most explosive stock market bursts of all time. Depending on the market sector or style, some bounces have been multiple standard deviations beyond anything we’ve seen in years. This has left us, naturally, with many attractive-looking charts of stocks, indices, etc., hitting new highs. But as with any rally, this one isn’t “perfect” from a technical perspective. And among the imperfections is a potentially significant one: the lack, as of yet, of a new high in the NYSE Advance-Decline Line.

image

 

If you’ll recall, the Advance-Decline Line, or A-D Line, is a cumulative running tally of NYSE Advancing Issues minus Declining Issues on a daily basis. Now, regarding the non-confirmation, or “divergence”, there are plenty of reasonable caveats which we will touch on below. First off, however, why are such divergences potentially significant? Generally speaking, as we are big proponents of strong market breadth within a rally, we like to see the A-D Line going to new highs along with the indices. That suggests that there is strong participation among stocks in bolstering the rally.

From a technical perspective, a non-confirmation by the A-D Line has historically been a significant warning for stocks – at times. Specifically, as we have mentioned before, every cyclical top in the S&P 500 in the last 50 years has been accompanied by a divergence in the A-D Line.

image

 

Now for the caveats:

  • Every A-D Line divergence isn’t necessarily a cyclical market top. Indeed, on May 21, 2015, we noted the presence of a non-confirmation of the S&P 500 new high by the NYSE A-D Line. Now, that date did end up marking the high in the Index for the next 13 months (including a -15% drawdown). However, with the S&P 500 going to new highs this July, it negated the potential May 2015 top (although, some indices, such as the Value Line Geometric Composite and the NYSE Composite have yet to surpass their respective 2015 highs). Furthermore, divergences do not necessarily have to lead to even the type of weakness we saw following last May’s divergence.
  • Along those lines, divergences can persist – for a long time. Consider the 2000 top in the S&P 500. The A-D Line had actually peaked in 1998, 2 years before the Index topped.
  • On the other side of the spectrum, sometimes we have to be a little patient in allowing the A-D Line to catch up to the S&P 500 at new highs. That is, sometimes, the large caps may lead a bounce and it may be that the broader market simply needs a day or two to catch up. Thus, we must be careful not to prematurely label the relative large cap strength a divergence.
  • That said, a consequential divergence can be subtle, narrow and brief at times. The May 2015 divergence, for example, saw the A-D Line less than 700 Issues shy of its April high while the S&P 500 only notched 4 daily new highs. Additionally, it is not unprecedented for a divergence at a cyclical top to be as narrow and brief as our current circumstances. In September 1976, for example, the S&P 500 set just 3 new daily highs while the A-D Line failed to do likewise. And although the A-D Line missed by less than 600 Issues, and the S&P 500 spent precious little time in new high ground, the divergence held, as the S&P would not surpass those highs for another 3 years.

image

 

Lastly, we are aware of the abundance of non-equity, bond-like Issues listed on the NYSE. And these Issues certainly haven’t had a good run of it since the election. However, while it is as reasonable as any other period in memory to place an asterisk next to the A-D Line divergence given the recent rout in bond funds, we would be careful not to write off the signal entirely. The fact is there has been a proliferation of bond-type Issues on the NYSE for some time and yet the confirmation/divergence signals based on the A-D Line have continued to be relevant and valid. Thus, again, we would not be too quick to dismiss developments surrounding the A-D Line out of hand.

So, are divergences in the NYSE Advance-Decline Line significant? In our experience, there are no divergences that are more consequential. However, A) not every divergence ends up being significant, and B) this divergence is very young and may just need a few more days for the broad market to catch up to the S&P 500. Additionally, the beatdown among bond-type Issues has unquestionably had a negative effect on NYSE breadth stats. All that said, there are a few signals that put us on alert whenever they pop up. A divergence in the NYSE A-D Line is one of them, no matter the circumstances.

*  *  *

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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White Identity Politics Gave Us Trump. But Did the Left Give Us White Identity Politics?

TrumpSen. Bernie Sanders recently criticized the Democratic Party’s slavish devotion to an overly-simplistic form of race-and-gender-based identity politics.

“It is not good enough for someone to say, ‘I’m a woman! Vote for me!’ No, that’s not good enough,” said Sanders. “What we need is a woman who has the guts to stand up to Wall Street, to the insurance companies, to the drug companies.”

In response, Quentin James—former head of Ready for Hillary’s outreach efforts to people of color—had this to say, “I like U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders but his comments regarding identity politics suggest he may be a white supremacist, too.”

Sanders. A white supremacist. For daring to suggest that the most obvious sort of race-and-gender tribalism was not a winning strategy for the left.

This baseless accusation is emblematic of a specific problem for Democrats who, having successfully galvanized certain segments of the population into identity-based political coalitions, lost the presidential election because the people outside this group—working-class whites—formed a coalition of their own. The Democratic Party has itself to blame, of course: you can’t cheer for white men to go extinct and then be surprised when they desert your candidate. Or, as Spiked magazine’s Brendan O’Neill put it, liberals essentially did the following:

His point is we shouldn’t be surprised to see people vote in keeping with the ill-defined interests of their designated identity group: that’s the game the Lena Dunham Left has been playing with increasing fervency for years.

But identity politics—and the backlash they inspired in the form of Trump—are not just a problem for the left: they concern us all. That’s because the idea that one’s interests are tied to one’s tribal affiliation is anathema to the libertarian worldview. In fact, there’s nothing less libertarian than the tribe—and the more tribeal our politics become, the less respectful of individual liberty they will be.

As an example, Trump’s victory is now calling attention to the plight of the supposed “forgotten man”—the struggling white working class. These people have formed a race-and-income-based voting bloc, and they support Trump because he says he supports them. Trump wants to bring back jobs from overseas, punish corporations that screw over workers, and halt immigration as a means of decreasing labor competition.

But just because a set of policies are good for the tribe—and it’s dubious whether the previously mentioned policies even satisfy that criteria—does not mean they are good for society, or enhance individual rights. Indeed, halting immigration would be both economically ruinous and a major human rights violation against immigrants, whether or not it makes the white working class happy. And of course, the white working class isn’t a sentient being with rights of its own: it’s an expression of a collective. Its members have rights, but those are human rights, not white-working-class rights.

And that’s the curse of identity politics: in subjugating individual rights, they also undermine social welfare. Instead of asking whether a given policy makes sense, tribalists only ask whether a given policy is good for the tribe to which they belong—for women, or for the white working class, or for Muslims, and so on. In that way, identity politics put the ostensible good of the group before the good of the individual and the good of society as a whole.

Nothing good will come of this. To defend individual liberty and promote human prosperity in the era of Trump, libertarians must fight the insidious notion that the point of politics is to back the tribe’s champion.

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Oil Tumbles As OPEC Deal Seen Increasingly Unlikely: SBC Says “Very Low Chance” Of Agreement

One day ahead of OPEC’s much anticipated meeting in Vienna, oil has slid back under $46 on rising pessimism that an oil production cut deal, taken widely for granted as recently as last week, is not going to take place.

Here is the latest rundown of events heading into the Wednesday meeting.

As Bloomberg highlights, Russia’s absence from discussions in Vienna is creating complications for OPEC members that insist on participation of non-members in supply cutbacks with one day to go before OPEC ministers meet to decide policy.  Earlier today, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he has no plans to visit Vienna on Wednesday, but Russia is ready to talk with OPEC once group reaches an internal consensus

Meanwhile, as reported yesterday, Iran, Iraq continued to express objections to cutting their own supply during lengthy meeting of OPEC officials Monday, as talks failed to bridge differences, one delegate said. In Monday’s talks, Saudi offered proposal for Iran to freeze its own output at 3.707m b/d; Iran offered to cap its output at 3.975m b/d: delegates; at the same time mediator Algeria proposed that Iran freeze at 3.795m b/d, and amount which was greater than the 3.69m b/d Iran pumped in October according to secondary sources. Yesterday’s unsuccessful talks also didn’t reach agreement on Iraq; Algeria proposed Iraq cut 240k b/d from its October level

That said, in keeping an appearance of optimism, Iraq’s minister told reporters in Vienna Tuesday he’s still very confident about OPEC meeting.

Surprisingly, today’s dose of cold water came from an unexpected source, when Indonesia energy minister Ignasius Jonan told reporters in Vienna that he has “no expectation” ahead of the OPEC meeting, and that his country has “mixed feelings” about the meeting, but will listen to major players in group. He is expected to meet his Iranian counterpart tonight.

“There are growing thoughts that after much rhetoric and bullish chatter, OPEC won’t be able to find an accord,,” says Nick Williams, commodities futures broker at GF Financial Markets. “The Indonesian minister’s comments only added to that.”

And speaking of logistics, Saudi, Iran ministers are expected to arrive in Vienna Tuesday afternoon along with other ministers. Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa, who has been negotiating with Russia and Iran, told reporters in Moscow he will go to Vienna today. The delayed Saudi arrival comes after energy minister Al-Falih hinted on Sunday in Dhahran that OPEC doesn’t necessarily need to cut output; comment viewed by analysts as a bargaining position that could result in price crash if no deal is reached.

As a result of all the rising chaos, oil traders are s understandably skeptical, and as Goldman calculated in a note overnight, the oil market is pricing in only a 30% chance of a deal to cut output emerging tomorrow. As Bloomberg reports, “Brent crude may swing $6 a barrel on Wednesday, based on implied volatility for options contracts, analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie said in a report Monday. Futures would rally into the low $50s a barrel and average $55 over the first half of next year if the group agrees to a cut, according to the bank. Failure to reach an accord would mean prices would average $45 a barrel through the summer.”

As a reminder, just last week Goldman turned bullish on the OPEC agreement, saying on November 21 that it now expects OPEC to real a production cut deal, in the process raising its Q1 and Q2 2017 oil price forecast; the contrarians in the audience will note by doing so it may have doomed the deal.

Others have taken the other side of the bet, and overnight Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, says that he thinks there is a “very low chance” of an OPEC oil-output cut tomorrow.  The analyst expects more comments along the line of Saudi Arabia’s “don’t really need a cut” assertion from Sunday. 

“It becomes imperative to save face,” Schieldrop said adding that OPEC may be “kicking the can to the next OPEC meeting in half a year’s time.”

He also noted that Iran’s offer to cap output at 3.975m b/d means effectively no cut, given avg 2000-2008 production was 3.78m b/d. “It is unacceptable for Saudi Arabia that Iran does not pitch in with a cut” and added that for Iraq, important issue is what country really produced in October, which is baseline month for cuts.

What happens if he is right? Oil is “likely to trade to the downside of $45/bbl as a no-cut is actually communicated, then will return toward $48.”

* * *

For now the market is agreeing with the SECB analyst, and WTI has tumbled below $46 in early trading.

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Peak Silver Cometh – Supply Deficits Continue Meaning Higher Prices

  • Peak Silver – Supply deficits continue meaning higher prices
  • May have experienced a peak in world silver production
  • Global silver market suffered another large net supply deficit in 2016
  • Peak silver likely as global silver production will decline to 887 million oz (Moz), down from 893 Moz in 2015

“While forecasted global silver production for 2016 is down only slightly versus last year, GFMS also stated this in their report:

We estimate that mine supply peaked in 2015 and will trend lower in the foreseeable future.

Declining total supply is expected to be a key driver of annual deficits in the silver market going forward.

I will get to the annual silver deficits in a minute, but let’s look at their world silver mine supply by region:

“What is interesting here, is that GFMS forecasts the number one silver producer, Mexico, to be down in 2016 by more than 6 Moz.  Last year, I forecasted that global silver production would likely be lower in 2015.  I was going by data by the “World Metals Statistics.”  However, Mexico’s INEGI (government agency) considerably revised their figures higher for 2015.  While I have seen revisions take place, the revisions by Mexico’s INEGI for 2015 were quite substantial.

Regardless, GFMS does a pretty good job with the silver mine supply data.  The important take-away here is that the trend of global silver production will likely be lower going forward.”

Read the full report on SRS Rocco here

 

GIVE THE GIFT OF SILVER THIS CHRISTMAS
Silver bullion coins – like Silver Maples, Philharmonics, Britannias, Nuggets (Kangaroos) and Eagles  – are great gifts for loved ones at Christmas time.

product_coins_canadian-maple-leaf-silver-bullion-coinSilver Maples 2016 (1 oz) 

Besides being a wonderful Christmas present for loved ones, they are a great way to pass on wealth to the next generation. They are a great way to teach younger generations the value of savings and the value of insurance against currency debasement and financial collapse.

We have very competitive prices – some of the most competitive internationally. We are now delivering legal tender silver coins, VAT free, in the UK and throughout the EU. Give the most precious of gifts this Christmas.

 

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold little changed as dollar holds losses (Reuters.com)

Gold Posts Biggest Advance in Four Weeks as Dollar Declines (Bloomberg.com)

Oil up ahead of OPEC meeting; dollar, stocks dip (Reuters.com)

London zinc charges to 9-yr high, lead hits 5-yr high (Reuters.com)

Islamic finance body approves standard for gold-based products (Reuters.com)

Bonds set to snap three-decade winning streak as Fed, Trump plot next moves (CNBC.com)

How Donald Trump’s economic plans will lead the Fed to reverse course on policy: Schiff (CNBC.com)

Interventions in gold and currency markets by central banks (GoldSeek.com)

Here’s what happened when ancient Romans tried to drain the swamp (SovereignMan.com)

The Hyperinflationary Endgame: Venezuela Currency Crashes 15% In One Day (ZeroHedge.com)

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Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

29 Nov: USD 1,187.30, GBP 952.45 & EUR 1,119.98 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 1,189.10, GBP 956.51 & EUR 1,117.99 per ounce
25 Nov: USD 1,187.50, GBP 953.30 & EUR 1,121.83 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 1,187.25, GBP 953.60 & EUR 1,125.04 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,213.25, GBP 980.00 & EUR 1,143.00 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,217.55, GBP 978.91 & EUR 1,144.98 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 1,214.95, GBP 984.72 & EUR 1,143.39 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

29 Nov: USD 16.54, GBP 13.26 & EUR 15.61 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 16.68, GBP 13.45 & EUR 15.73 per ounce
25 Nov: USD 16.47, GBP 13.21 & EUR 15.55 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 16.31, GBP 13.09 & EUR 15.43 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 16.56, GBP 13.36 & EUR 15.59 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 16.76, GBP 13.46 & EUR 15.77 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 16.68, GBP 13.47 & EUR 15.69 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Bail In Risk – €4 Trillion Banking System In Italy Poses Contagion Risk as Referendum Looms
– Gold Down 13.5% In 13 Days – Trump Bearish For Gold?
– War On Cash Just Got Real – India and Citibank In Australia
– Russia Gold Buying In October Is Biggest Monthly Allocation Since 1998
– Stocks, Bonds, Pension Funds “Will Be Wiped Out…” – Rickards
– Physical Gold Is A “Long-Term Position” as “Hedge Against Governments”
– Gold Sell Off On Fed Noise – “Interesting Times” To “Support Gold”
– Islamic Gold – Vital New Dynamic In Physical Gold Market
– Peak Gold Globally – “Bullish For Gold”
– Gold Price Should Go Higher On Global Risks and Trump – Capital Economics
– President Trump – Why Market Loves Him and Experts Wrong
– ‘Helicopter Money President’ Trump To Create Inflation and Gold Will Rise
– Central Bank Gold Demand continues in Q3

 

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Welcome to Reason’s 2016 Webathon!

#NeverForget ||| United ArtistsHas it really been 354 days since we brought out our best tin cup, banged it on a trusty woodchipper, and reminded you that #GivingTuesday, not unlike perestroika, begins in the comments section? Yes, even if you’re already lost in a haze of imagined Lobster Girl references (but especially if you’re not), it’s that time of year again—when Reason threatens harasses asks you, our very favorite and most loyal readers, to donate a QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS to make the world safe for libertarian journalism.

From now until December 6, we will be listing a series of reasons for the season why you should donate your hard-earned, tax-deductible dollars, Bitcoin, and untraceable scrip to the Reason Foundation—the 501(c)(3) nonprofit that publishes our award-winning journalism in video, audio, pixelated or (newly redesigned) print form. You can and should scroll down to see giving levels and argumentation and such, but just this once why don’t you just click on the link immediately below this paragraph, and….

DONATE TO REASON RIGHT THE HELL NOW.

Last year, 1,682 of you generous, possibly immortal souls coughed up $246,000 to defend civil and economic liberties, attack authoritarianism, and pour some rational tonic onto an increasingly hysterical world. This year we’re not just asking to round those digits up, or to lock in our COLA increase, but rather for you to reaffirm that, dammit, we lived up to our end of the bargain, and are even more likely to spin your delicious straw into glorious gold in 2017.

Looks even better on the inside! ||| ReasonHow can I predict that so bigly? Well, viddy this, my brothers:

* Web traffic at Reason.com has shattered all-time highs this very month.

* Views for Reason TV views over the past fiscal year have doubled.

* We’ve gone from near-zero to at least 55 with our new podcasting activities, both in-house and outhouse.

* Have I mentioned our fancy new magazine redesign, the first in 15 years, which is already in subscribers’ mailboxes?

* And ohhhhhh, do we have some secret new sauce planned for you next year!

You’re going to be hearing more about all of this in the coming days from a cast of Reason characters, including in a live Webathon Telethon that will surely produce more maimed bodies than a Flying Wallendas performance. But for now, let’s list the goody-goody gumdrops that you’ll get from donating right the hell now at various levels:

* $100–You’ll get a Reason magazine subscription (includes print and/or digital, with digital opening the Pandora’s Box of Reason’s five-decade-old archives). You’ll also receive invitations to any and all Reason events in your area.

* $250—The above, plus a custom Reason T-shirt custom DESIGNED SPECIAL-LIKE FOR THIS WEBATHON by Reason Magazine Art Director Joanna Andreasson. You’ll also get some books by Reason authors.

* $500—That plus a copy of the funny and important documentary Can We Take a Joke? directed by former Reason TV producer Ted Balaker and co-produced/co-written by Reason TV’s own Zach Weissmueller.

* $1,000—Throw in a private lunch in Washington, D.C., with a senior Reason editor, and an invite to our super-exclusive and very rewarding Reason Weekend.

What up, Fred? ||| Reason* $5,000—Did someone say a 1-ounce silver Bastiat Coin, plus two tickets to the swanky Reason Media Awards in New York City, with VIP seating and a reception with Nick Gillespie, Matt Welch, and Katherine Mangu-Ward?

* $10,000—What the hell, let’s just add two tickets to Reason Weekend for first-time attendees.

Not bad, right? But listen, we need to hit the ground running here; last year we started out a bit slow, and the haters came out with all their hate-mutterings: Libertarians are FINISHED, man! It’s all trade wars and war-wars and smart surveillance and stadium subsidies and entitlement expansion from here on out. Well, maybe. But we have a hunch the statists are playing the shorter deck, and we—meaning you—are not just keeping the flame lit, but tossing entire couches on the raging bonfire of freedom, and sending out joyous wolf-howls in the night. Or at least that’s what I think Gary Johnson has been doing these past three weeks….

We are here to amplify your voice, to challenge even our own assumptions, and hopefully produce a chuckle or two along the way. Help make us make you want to make them sad about making things bad!

DONATE TO REASON RIGHT THE HELL NOW.

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Brexit Redux: ECB Ready To Buy More Italian Bonds If Referendum “Rocks Markets”

In a report confirming that the ECB is preparing for a rerun of a post-Brexit scenario, Reuters writes that the ECB is ready to temporarily step up purchases of Italian government bonds if the result of next Sunday’s crucial referendum, which according to WSJ will likely determine the future of not only Monte Paschi but other insolvent Italian banks, “rocks markets” and sharply drives up borrowing costs for the euro zone’s largest debtor.

As observed here over the past week, Italian government bonds and bank shares have sold off steeply ahead of the Dec. 4 referendum on constitutional reforms as the market has grown to appreciate the risk of political turmoil. Opinion polls suggest the ‘No’ camp is heading for substantial victory, which could force out Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in the latest upheaval against the ruling establishment sweeping the developed world. Heavily indebted Italy’s borrowing costs are closely watched as a potential flashpoint for market instability in the wider euro zone.

Just like in the hours after the Brexit announcement, when the ECB and other regional central banks vowed to step in and stabilize markets, the ECB will likely use its €80 billion monthly bond-buying program – which already hold nearly €1.2 trillion in European bonds – to counter any immediate, further spike in bond yields after the vote, smoothing market moves and supporting bonds, according to four euro zone central bank sources who asked not to be named.

The sources added the scheme was flexible enough to allow for a temporary increase in Italian purchases and that such a move would not necessarily need to be rubber-stamped by the ECB’s Governing Council, which is due to meet on Dec. 8 to decide on whether to keep buying bonds after March.

 

But they stressed this would be limited to days or weeks, to counter any immediate market volatility, because the asset-purchase program was designed to shore up inflation and economic growth in the entire euro zone and was not intended to fight crises in individual countries.

 

This means that, if Italy or its banks needed longer-term financial support, Rome would need to formally ask for help.

 

“The Governing Council understands that there is some space to help Italy, which will be used, if needed. The asset purchase program has built-in flexibility,” said one of the sources. “The key is that the ECB has to be convinced the volatility can be overcome by using this flexibility.”

Last week ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio opened the door to a central bank intervention last week but also stressed that still-low Italian bond yields did not point to investor fears that the country may crash out of the euro zone. Indeed, concerns about deposit flight and the health of Italian banks, rather than Italy’s own borrowing costs, have become Rome’s biggest worry in the aftermath of a ‘No’ vote.

Italy’s 10-year bond yields stand at 2% the highest level in more than a year but nowhere near the 7% level that prompted emergency ECB purchases in 2010-11 and eventually led to the resignation of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, when Draghi refused to intervene in capital markets in a show of force with the then-Italian PM to demonstrate who is the real boss.

Reuters also adds that Euro zone central bank sources say there is little the ECB can do about the banks’ need for capital unless Italy itself asks for a rescue program for its banking sector. This would also unlock further, country-specific ECB purchases of Italian debt, known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). These, unlike the current asset-purchase program, are not tied to the “capital key”, or how much capital each country has paid into the central bank.

“There is a risk that a bout of volatility would have a broader impact on the bank sector,” one of the sources said. “At that point, it’s not for the ECB to act. That’s typically where OMT needs to come in with all the requirements, including a (rescue) program.”

Logistic aside, BTP futures briefly spiked higher, gaining ~30 ticks in 2 minutes, to session high of 135.46, after Reuters cites unidentified sources to report ECB ready to temporarily step up Italy bond purchases if referendum causes yield spike.

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Frontrunning: November 29

  • Monte dei Paschi’s Future Hangs on Sunday Vote (WSJ)
  • Trump Son-in-Law Jared Kushner Could Face Conflict-of-Interest Questions (WSJ)
  • In OPEC’s High-Stakes Poker Game, Iran and Iraq Call Saudi Bluff (BBG)
  • Iran, Iraq at loggerheads with Saudis ahead of OPEC meeting (Reuters)
  • High-Profile Private Investors Take Hit on Theranos (WSJ)
  • Trump Bubble Burst Will Drive Yen to 98 per Dollar: UBS Wealth (BBG)
  • Euro-Area Confidence Rises as ECB Reviews Asset-Purchase Program (BBG)
  • Arrested Russian minister wanted state to cede control over Rosneft  (Reuters)
  • Supersonic Is Coming Back. Will the Airlines Buy It? (BBG)
  • China Looks to Loosen Job Security Law in Face of Slowing Growth (WSJ)
  • Samsung Electronics Is Heading for a Split (BBG)
  • How Amazon Gets Its Holiday Hires Up to Speed in Two Days (WSJ)
  • Chinese firms hit by huge increase in cyber attacks (Reuters)
  • FBI and NSA Poised to Gain New Surveillance Powers Under Trump (BBG)
  • Jeweler Tiffany posts first sales rise in eight quarters (Reuters)
  • France and Britain In Danger of Winter Power Shortages (BBG)
  • A Billionaire Real Estate Mogul Can’t Find Love in Hillaryland (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Wrap

WSJ

– Theranos Inc received much of its funding from high-profile private investors who weren’t part of the ecosystem that typically backs startups and could see their stakes wiped out by the blood-testing company’s regulatory and technological troubles, people familiar with the matter said. http://on.wsj.com/2fKs7CB

– The real-estate company controlled by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, has hundreds of millions of dollars in loans from domestic and foreign banks. Those and other financing arrangements could draw fresh conflict-of-interest scrutiny even if he is an unpaid adviser to the president-elect. http://on.wsj.com/2fKow7e

– At least 11 people were injured Monday at Ohio State University after a student allegedly jumped a curb in a motor vehicle, then slashed pedestrians with a butcher knife before he was shot and killed. http://on.wsj.com/2ft72OB

– To prepare for the flood of holiday orders just under way, Amazon.com has been using technology ranging from touch screens to robots to shrink the time it takes to train new hires at its warehouses to as little as two days. http://on.wsj.com/2frIS6I

– President-elect Donald Trump has chosen House Budget Committee Chairman Tom Price as his nominee for secretary of the Health and Human Services Department, according to a transition team adviser, putting the six-term congressman in charge of the sprawling agency that will likely dismantle Democrats’ 2010 health-care overhaul. http://on.wsj.com/2fZhXvq

– Beijing wants to give every citizen a score based on behavior such as spending habits, turnstile violations and filial piety, which can blacklist citizens from loans, jobs, air travel. http://on.wsj.com/2gz8PkN

– Crude-oil futures fell in Asia due to growing doubts that the world’s biggest oil producers would reach a deal to cut global output. http://on.wsj.com/2grbaLt

– Time Inc rejected two overtures from Edgar Bronfman Jr. and Access Industries that offered at least $18 per share for the country’s largest magazine publisher, according to people familiar with the matter. http://on.wsj.com/2fGM8GU

– Activist investor Elliott Management Corp called for change at Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp, a $34.6 billion IT-outsourcing firm whose growth prospects have been upended by the rise of cloud computing. http://on.wsj.com/2gaL5Tm

– People began lining up early Monday morning at Revolution Square here in the heart of the capital to say farewell to Fidel Castro, the all-powerful strongman who installed a Communist state that challenged the U.S. and shaped every facet of life for his compatriots. http://on.wsj.com/2ftNhWM

– American Airlines Group Inc and JetBlue Airways Corp on Monday launched the first scheduled flights between the U.S. and Havana in half a century, leading what is set to become a parade of U.S. carriers offering regular service to the Cuban capital. http://on.wsj.com/2gPfcRB

 

FT

BT Group Plc said Mike McTighe, former board member of Ofcom, has been appointed the first chairman of Openreach, BT’s fixed network business.

Actelion Ltd is considering a complex deal to combine with Johnson & Johnson’s pharma business that would leave the Swiss drugmaker independent from the U.S. healthcare company, people close to the discussions said. J&J would become a major shareholder in the new, larger biotech company and could be asked to add some cash to complete the deal, the people said.

Philip Clarke, the former chief executive of Tesco Plc , will not face charges from the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) over the accounting scandal that rocked Britain’s biggest retailer in 2014, his lawyer said on Monday.

Britain’s accounting watchdog has begun an investigation into Grant Thornton’s auditing of financial statements published by Sports Direct, it said on Monday, dealing another blow to the troubled sportswear retailer.

 

NYT

– Delta Air Lines has barred a disruptive passenger who shouted pro-Donald Trump and anti-Hillary Clinton remarks at fellow passengers on a flight from Atlanta to Allentown last week, the airline’s chief executive Edward Bastian said. http://nyti.ms/2gdFjjY

– In one of the most sweeping and rare bipartisan acts of this Congress, lawmakers will move this week on a $6.3 billion bill to increase funding for research into cancer and other diseases, address problems in the nation’s mental health systems and enact potentially far-reaching regulatory changes for drugs and medical devices. http://nyti.ms/2gdKFeO

– AT&T unveiled a streaming television service on Monday aimed at the millions of Americans who have broadband internet but no bundled TV package, offering an extensive list of channels for less than most cable plans. The service, DirecTV Now, includes many of the channels, including ESPN, TBS, AMC and the Disney Channel. Live television can be streamed to mobile devices, tablets, computers and living-room televisions. http://nyti.ms/2gdDtQc

– Samsung Electronics said it might restructure its vast operations as a way to unlock shareholder value. The family-controlled South Korean electronics giant said it would consider creating a holding company and listing its operations on international exchanges. Samsung will begin a review of its options that will take at least six months. http://nyti.ms/2gdEqIf

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz suggested that continued uncertainties surrounding Canada’s economic outlook have set the bar high for an interest rate change, as the central bank approaches its deliberations for next week’s rate decision. (https://tgam.ca/2gDGTbV)

** Canopy Growth Corp of Smiths Falls, Ontario, has an agreement to buy pharmaceutical distributor MedCann, which has placed the Canadian marijuana company’s Tweed-branded cannabis strains in German pharmacies. (https://tgam.ca/2gDNCSY)

** The country’s banking watchdog says lenders need to be more vigilant than ever as mortgage debt rises. (https://tgam.ca/2gDJbHI)

NATIONAL POST

** The Canadian Broadcasting Corp has submitted a proposal to the federal government requesting $318 million in additional funding in order to allow the public broadcaster to move to an ad-free model. (http://bit.ly/2gDCmGa)

** Mining companies are digging into renewable energy as a way to reduce costs and offset the impact of volatile conventional fuel prices as the world shifts to a low-carbon economy. (http://bit.ly/2gDNZNq)

 

Britain

The Times

* Investigators are looking into whether Tesco Bank ignored a warning about a security flaw in its payment system that allowed fraudsters to steal millions of pounds from the accounts of thousands of its customers. http://bit.ly/2fVnLWW

* Companies are to be forced to publish the difference in pay between their chief executives and average workers, Theresa May will announce this week. http://bit.ly/2gNZPJ5

The Guardian

* Drivers on Southern rail trains have voted overwhelmingly to strike in a dispute over the operation of train doors, Aslef union has said. http://bit.ly/2gzvYTW

* The Financial Reporting Council will investigate the accountancy firm Grant Thornton for signing off on an arrangement between Sports Direct International Plc, majority-owned by Mike Ashley, and a delivery company owned by his brother. http://bit.ly/2gO7ln4

The Telegraph

* Secret Brexit memo suggests Britain will not be offered single market membership. http://bit.ly/2gc4zXV

* BT Group Plc has appointed a former Ofcom director as the first chairman of its Openreach business in a bid to make the network division more independent and avoid being forced to spin it off. http://bit.ly/2gDl5y1

Sky News

* American aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co has been receiving subsidies from the U.S. state of Washington that are illegal under competition law, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has ruled. http://bit.ly/2gDlpgc

* London Mayor Sadiq Khan has named a number of top tech executives to his panel of business advisers underlining the importance of the sector to the capital’s economy. http://bit.ly/2gcDQuj

The Independent

* The UK should be “prudent” with its plans to raise the national living wage next year with growth expected to slow in the wake of the UK vote to leave the European Union, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. http://ind.pn/2gy1TnW

* An external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has become the latest central banker to push back against the widespread complaint that low interest rates have unduly penalised savers in recent years. http://ind.pn/2gbp5b1

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Trump Picks Vocal Obamacare Critic Tom Price As HHS Secretary

In a choice that confirms Trump’s intentions to dismantle Obamacare, Reuters reports that President-elect Donald Trump will shortly announce he has chosen vociferous Obamacare critic Tom Price (R. Ga), an orthopedic surgeon from Georgia, as his Health and Human Services secretary to help him overhaul the U.S. healthcare system.


Chairman of the House Budget Committee Tom Price

“Chairman Price, a renowned physician, has earned a reputation for being a tireless problem solver and the go-to expert on healthcare policy, making him the ideal choice to serve in this capacity,” Trump said in a statement. “He is exceptionally qualified to shepherd our commitment to repeal and replace Obamacare and bring affordable and accessible healthcare to every American. I am proud to nominate him as Secretary of Health and Human Services.”

Price, who currently leads the House Budget Committee, has spent more than a decade in Congress and has become a close ally of GOP leadership. As a member of the House GOP Doctor’s Caucus, Price helped shape the healthcare plan that House Speaker Paul Ryan now pitches as his alternative to ObamaCare. Trump also slected consultant Seema Verma to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), a powerful agency that oversees government health programs and insurance standards.

Price is a vocal critic of ObamaCare and he brings a deep background in health legislation. In 2014 as the law faced a major challenge at the Supreme Court, Price authored his own plan to replace the law.

“I am humbled by the incredible challenges that lay ahead and enthusiastic for the opportunity to be a part of solving them on behalf of the American people,” Price said in the Tuesday morning statement. “There is much work to be done to ensure we have a healthcare system that works for patients, families, and doctors; that leads the world in the cure and prevention of illness; and that is based on sensible rules to protect the well-being of the country while embracing its innovative spirit.”

Trump is expected to cast Price and Verma as a “dream team” to help him once he takes office on Jan. 20 with his campaign pledge to repeal President Barack Obama’s signature health law, the Affordable Care Act that is better known as Obamacare. Trump has said he will replace Obamacare with a plan to give states more control over the Medicaid health plan for the poor and allow insurers to sell plans nationally. Both positions require Senate confirmation and the Trump administration will need to have agreement from Congress to repeal and replace the health law.

Price, an early Trump supporter from the U.S. House of Representatives, has long championed a plan of tax credits, expanded health savings accounts, and lawsuit reforms to replace Obamacare. Verma worked with Vice President-Elect Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, on a compromise to expand Medicaid coverage for the state’s poor with federal funding. The Indiana program requires beneficiaries to make monthly contributions to health savings accounts.

Price also supports an idea backed by Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to shift Medicare to rely more on private insurance. The government would provide financial assistance to help people afford private plans, or the current government-run option.  Republicans say this would save the government money, while Democrats warn it would “end Medicare as we know it” and erode the guarantee of care for seniors.

Price campaigned with Trump because he promised to overhaul Obamacare. However, Trump’s position on the health insurance program appeared to soften after he met Obama following the hard-fought Nov. 8 election.

Obama has acknowledged the law could use improvements but has credited Obamacare with cutting the number of uninsured Americans from 49 million in 2010 to 29 million in 2015. Much of that drop is due to the law’s provision allowing states to expand Medicaid.

Trump said he would consider keeping provisions in the law that let parents keep adult children up to age 26 on insurance policies and bar insurers from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.

According to Reuters, Price and Verma are two of about 70 people who Trump has met so far as he looks to shape his White House and Cabinet team.

In addition to Price, Trump is expected to reveal an additional Cabinet pick on Tuesday, but is not expected to announce his choices for the three biggest positions – state, defense and treasury – as he continues to consider his options.

After seeing retired general David Petraeus on Monday – a potential candidate for the State Department or the Pentagon – Trump is expected to meet U.S. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, and later have dinner with Mitt Romney. Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, and Corker are in the running for secretary of state, along with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

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Brazilian Plane Carrying Top Football Team Crashes In Colombia, 76 Dead

A plane carrying 81 people, including top Brazilian football team Chapecoense, heading for the biggest game in its history, crashed on its approach to the city of Medellin in Colombia. 76 of those on board have perished.

The charter flight was carrying 72 passengers and nine crew, when it crashed around 10:15 p.m. on Monday. Heavy rain first hampered and then halted rescue operations. Officials told local media that bodies would be removed at first light. Brazilian news organizations reported 21 journalists had been on board to cover the match.

The Avro RJ85 was produced by a company that is now part of UK’s BAE Systems. The plane crashed in a mountainous rural area outside of the city of Medellin and heavy rains at one point halted rescue operations. News showed photos of twisted wreckage and hospital staff awaiting patients.

Flight tracking service Flightradar24 said on Twitter the last tracking signal from flight 2933 had been received when it was at 15,500 feet, about 30 km from its destination, which sits at an altitude of 7,000 feet.

The chartered aircraft, flying from Brazil via Bolivia, was carrying members of the Chapecoense team. The team from Brazil’s top league had been flying to face Atletico Nacional of Medellin in the first leg of Wednesday’s Sudamericana final, South America’s equivalent of the Europa League, against Medellin team Atletico Nacional.

The first leg of the final of the cup, South America’s second most important club competition, was scheduled for Wednesday, but has now been suspended. The match was seen as the biggest in the history of the relatively small club, which entered Brazil’s top division for the first time in 2014. It was the first time the small club from Chapeco had reached the final of a major South American club competition. Three players were among the survivors, Colombian disaster authoritieas said.

The club said in a statement that it would not be making any official comments until it had more information from Colombian authorities about Monday night’s crash.

“Six people were rescued alive, but unfortunately one died. The rest of the occupants unfortunately died. The tragic toll is 76 victims,” Jose Gerardo Acevedo, regional police commander, told journalists.

The tragic crash evoked memories of Munich air disaster in 1958, which killed 23 people including eight Manchester United players, journalists and traveling officials. Players Alan Luciano Ruschel, Marcos Danilo Padilha and Jacson Ragnar Follmann were listed as survivors in a statement from the disaster management agency. The team’s vice-president, Ivan Tozzo, told cable channal SporTV: “There are a lot of people crying in our city. We could never imagine this. Chapecoense is the biggest reason for joy here.”

Chapecoense qualified for the biggest game in their history after overcoming Argentine club San Lorenzo in the semi-final on away goals following a 1-1 draw in Buenos Aires and a 0-0 draw at home.

They were very much the underdogs for the match against a club going for a rare double after winning the Copa Libertadores in July.

According to Reuters, Chapecoense were the 21st biggest club in Brazil in terms of revenue, bringing in 46 million reais ($13.5 million) in 2015, according to an annual rich list compiled by Brazilian bank Itau BBA. The club has built its success on a frugal spending policy that eschewed big money signings and instead concentrated on blending young talent and experienced journeymen.

Their best-known player was Cleber Santana, a midfielder who best years were spent in Spain with Athletico Madrid and Mallorca. Coach Caio Junior was also experienced, having managed at some of Brazil’s biggest clubs, Botafogo, Flamengo and Palmeiras among them

The crash prompted an outpouring of solidarity and grief on social media from the footballing community, with Brazilian top flight teams Flamengo and Santo tweeting messages of support. Porto goalkeeper Iker Casillas tweeted: “My condolences for the plane accident that carried @ChapecoenseReal. Tough moment for football. Good luck and stay strong!”

The South American football federation suspended all games and other activities following the crash.

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