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Just one day after shutting down the “Pizzagate” subreddit thread, a move which infuriated a lot of users who claimed they were being censored over political views, the CEO of Reddit, Steve Huffman, has now admitted to editing individual posts made by Trump supporters that were critical of him.  According to reporting from BBC, Huffman simply edits posts to redirect criticism away from him and onto the moderators of the “r/the_donald” thread. 

Huffman offered the following apology admitting that he “messed with the “fuck u/spez” comments” and that “as the CEO, I shouldn’t play such games.”

 

As PJW of InfoWars pointed out to The Sun, there is nothing particularly new about leftist-run social media sites suppressing conservative free speech.  In fact, since November 4th the largest tech giants, including Google, Facebook and Twitter, in collusion with the mainstream media have launched an all out war against “fake news” sites.

Paul Joseph Watson, editor-at-large at the website InfoWars, told The Sun Online that prominent websites and social networks “routinely” suppressed right wing views.

 

Millions of Donald Trump supporters watched British firebrand Watson’s videos during the election campaign and he played a key role in breaking stories including the Hillary Clinton health scare.

 

“Reddit is potentially even worse than Twitter went it comes to censoring perfectly legitimate discussion,” he told us.

 

“The site routinely removes threads that are damaging to left-wing narratives and prevents them from going viral,” he claimed.

 

“The fact that their CEO is now spending hours editing individual posts is another fascinating insight into the control freak behaviour that leftists exhibit on a regular basis.”

 

“In recent months, companies like Reddit, Twitter and Facebook have made it clear that they do not stand on the side of free speech, and have instead decided to become echo chambers for social justice warriors.

But despite their efforts, we suspect that the more these social media giants attempt to censor their users the closer their business models will ultimately come to failure.  So carry on Mr. Huffman.

 

* * *

For those who missed it, here is what we wrote yesterday on the “Pizzagate” controversy:

As of earlier today, the subreddit, r/Pizzagate, was officially banned by Reddit which posted the following notice to their site:

 

For those not familiar with the movement, the “Pizzagate” subreddit was started by a group of Trump-supporting internet sleuths who were attempting to use WikiLeaks’ leaked Podesta emails to connect the Clintons and John Podesta to the convicted sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein.  That said, when the Podesta emails failed to reveal a “smoking gun” linkage, the sleuths instead turned their focus to mulitple “pizza” references in Podesta’s emails which then led to the speculation that those “pizza” references must be code for something far more sinister.

According to the Washington Post, the “Pizzagate” sleuths are convinced that the “secret headquarters of a child sex-trafficking ring run by Hillary Clinton and members of her inner circle” is located in the basement of a Washington D.C. pizza shop called the Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria.  The owner of the pizzeria, James Alefantis, says he has received numerous death threats over the past couple of weeks and has been forced to go to the FBI for protection.

It has also led to some very real harassment of the people caught up in the theory, including the owner of the Comet Ping Pong pizzeria in the District, James Alefantis. Alefantis has received hundreds of death threats over the past couple of weeks, he told the New York Times this week, after Pizzagate enthusiasts decided that his restaurant was the secret headquarters of a child sex-trafficking ring run by Hillary Clinton and members of her inner circle.

 

None of the wildly accusatory claims are true. Alefantis told the Times that he asked Twitter, Reddit, Facebook, YouTube and the FBI to help him stop the spread of the conspiracy theory, which uses photos of his own kids as “evidence.”

 

According to the New York Times, Alefantis first heard of Pizzagate after he started receiving threatening messages on Instagram and Facebook.  Aside from some friendships with prominent democratic insiders like David Brock and Tony Podesta, Alefantis told the Times he’s not sure how this conspiracy theory got linked to his business.

None of it was true. While Mr. Alefantis has some prominent Democratic friends in Washington and was a supporter of Mrs. Clinton, he has never met her, does not sell or abuse children, and is not being investigated by law enforcement for any of these claims. He and his 40 employees had unwittingly become real people caught in the middle of a storm of fake news.

 

“From this insane, fabricated conspiracy theory, we’ve come under constant assault,” said Mr. Alefantis, 42, who was once in a relationship with David Brock, a provocative former right-wing journalist who became an outspoken advocate for Mrs. Clinton.

 

Mr. Alefantis suspects those relationships may have helped to make him a target. “I’ve done nothing for days but try to clean this up and protect my staff and friends from being terrorized,” he said.

 

Mr. Alefantis mingles with other Washington chefs and his establishment helped him to be named No. 49 in GQ magazine’s 50 most powerful people in Washington in 2012. His customers include some high-powered locals, such as Tony Podesta, the brother of John Podesta, whom Mr. Alefantis knows casually. Mr. Alefantis and Mr. Brock, who is the founder of Media Matters for America, a website that tracks press coverage critical of the Clintons and works to debunk misinformation in the conservative press, broke up five years ago.

While WaPo says the Pizzagate sleuths have failed to uncover any actual evidence of their accusations, the dismissal of their efforts by the media only seems to be strengthening their resolve.

“Pizzagate” has yet to produce any actual evidence for its extremely weighty and life-ruining accusations, but every debunking of its claims — including the one in the Times — has only convinced its believers that they must be right, and that the circle of pedophiles and sympathizers trying to cover up their findings must be even bigger and more powerful than they imagined.

#reddit has banned the #pizzagate subreddit.

PLEASE take a long, hard look at the narrative you’re being spoon-fed, folks #censorship

— Fran Seen ???? (@FranSeenWrites) November 23, 2016

The only reason Kanye was hospitalized is because he spoke up about #pizzagate

— Patrick (@_PaNew_) November 22, 2016

 

In fact, after the Reddit ban, one former moderator of the Pizzagate subreddit posted the following message on r/The_Donald:

Finally, we are not finished. Obviously the entire mod team and everyone else is tightening up our opsec and putting on our battle-armor. To those who pressured Reddit into this censorship: none of us are turning back. We have all made life insurance videos. We have all vowed to continue this fight. You have only increased our number. This morning we were numerous, tonight we are legion.

Reading between the lines, we’d say they’re not quite ready to give up on Pizzagate.

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When reporting yesterday on the abrupt deterioration in European-Turkish relations, in which the European Parliament voted Thursday in an overhwleming majority to impose a temporary, non-binding freeze on talks for Turkey’s accession into the EU, we said that it “remains unclear if Turkey will proceed with releasing the nearly three million Syrian refugees allegedly contained within its borders as a result of the European Parliament vote.” Today we have an answer: as the FT reports, Turkish president Erdogan warned Brussels on Friday he would allow 3 million refugees to cross over to Europe unless the EU softened its criticism of Ankara.

The furious Turkish leader lashed out a day after the European Parliament called for a pause in Turkey’s EU accession talks in protest at Ankara’s “repressive” and “disproportionate” response to a violent coup attempt earlier this year.

“We are the ones who feed 3m-3.5m refugees in this country,” he said. “You have betrayed your promises. If you go any further those border gates will be opened.”

To be sure, this is not the first such gambit by Erdogan, who has previously warned that he could put refugees “on buses” to Europe. However, in the past Europe had never escalated to the point where the vast majority of the EP made it clear that unless Erdogan backs off his authoritarian ambitions, the key negotiation in progress with Turkey would end. As such, it puts Erdogan in a tight spot: concede domestically, and be seen weak, or push on hoping that his threat will force Europe to de-escalate.

Earlier in 2016, in exchange for a series of promises, including accelerated membership talks and steps towards visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to the EU’s Schengen zone and billions in promptly embezzled funds, Turkey agreed to crack down on smugglers and to accept migrants and refugees returned from Greece. The agreement and other measures have dramatically reduced the numbers crossing the Mediterranean, but it has been complicated by growing anti-EU sentiment in Turkey and fears of increasing authoritarianism that have only deepened since July’s aborted coup attempt.

As expected, Erdogan’s remarks met a chilly response in Brussels the FT notes, where officials insist Europe is upholding its side of the migrant deal.

“Rhetorical threats are absolutely unhelpful and should not be the standard tone between partners,” said a senior EU official. “This will not help Turkey’s credibility in the eyes of European citizens. Europe will not be blackmailed.”

But Ankara argues that Brussels has failed to uphold its end of the bargain. European leaders, meanwhile, have been alarmed by warnings that Mr Erdogan is using the failed putsch, which left 241 people dead, as cover to pursue not only those connected to the plot but also academics, journalists, Kurdish opposition politicians and other critical voices.

 

The Turkish president has also threatened repeatedly to respond to popular demand to bring back the death penalty, a move the EU has warned would instantly put an end to Turkey’s longstanding accession bid.

Perhaps it is all just more theater: while Austria has called for a halt to the process, Germany, France and most other EU states support continued engagement. They see Turkey, the world’s largest host of refugees, as a difficult but vital partner for tackling the migration crisis and maintaining the cohesion and stability of the bloc. Recall that over the summer, Angela Merkel’s popularity tumbled to 4 year lows as a result of her “open door” immigration policy which led to a series of regional political defeats. As such, being on Ankara’s good side is critical for the German chancellor who last weekend announced her intention to seek a fourth term. 

Ankara is also an important security partner in the battle against Isis, intercepting foreign jihadist fighters seeking to reach Syria or Iraq from its territory.

Which is why, like this website, “some analysts have questioned whether Mr Erdogan would follow through on his ultimatum to open up the borders, given that the Turkish authorities have imposed travel restrictions on large numbers of Turkish citizens.”

Several alleged leaders of the July coup attempt are reportedly on the run, while many other people have been subjected to travel restrictions since the coup, as the government has sacked 125,000 people from the military, police and the public sector.

And while we wait to see the culmination of this escalation tit-for-tat in diplomatic deterioration, Turkey is making headway in restoring its relations with Russia, having recently hinted it may order billions in weapons from Moscow for its anti-missile shield, as well as expanding political, economic and military ties with the ascendent Russian-Chinese axis, which is becoming increasingly more relevant across Eurasia.

But the biggest wildcard may be how the new US administration will respond to this deteriortion on the South-eastern border of Europe, and more importantly, which US Secretary of State will be tasked with fixing an increasingly deteriorating relationship between the two.

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WTI crude prices were already fading this morning, after a subdued day yesterday, but the first major headline from Vienna has sparked further weakness as Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia has told OPEC it will not attend a meeting with non-OPEC producers on Monday.

Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia wants a deal agreed before they will agree to send anyone to the NOPEC talks.

For now the reaction is modest (even with a heavy volume spike)

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The resurrected hopes of lift-off velocity GDP growth in America suffered a double whammy this morning.

 

A considerably bigger than expected trade deficit (-$62mm vs -$59mm exp) suggests Q4 GDP growth may take a hit…

 

and then wholesale inventories tumbled 0.4% MoM (the 2nd biggest plunge in over 3 years) notching more potential from economic growth hopes.

 

Still forget Q4 right? 2017 will be trumperrific.

Still, the last two times wholesale inventories contracted year-over-year, the US economy dropped into recession…

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Two days ago we reported that according to a troubling – for retailers – survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, nearly two thirds, or 63% of US adults, did not plan to shop on Black Friday. It is unclear what exactly is causing this sharp slump in US consumerism: according to Christopher Baldwin, CEO of BJ’s Wholesale Club, one excuse is that “Black Friday is no longer a one-day event; it has turned into a multi-week event.” Another possible reason is that shellshocked by soaring Obamacare premiums, US adults simply have far less disposable cash which to splurge on holiday trinkets.

Confirming the pessimistic outlook on this holiday’s spending season, Reuters reports that according to its own spot checks as well as those of reporters and industry officials, “store traffic remained subdued across the country.”

“Initial reports show it’s steady and not very busy at stores around the country,” said Craig Johnson, president at retail consultancy Customer Growth Partners. The firm deployed 18 people nationwide to observe customer traffic. Rain hurt shopping at stores in the Northeast, Johnson said, but some retailers like Best Buy and Wal-Mart saw improved customer traffic at stores across the country.

At a JC Penney store in Manhattan, Terry Bodiford, visiting from South Carolina, said he did not feel deals were better than he had found online over the past few weeks.

Macy’s and Best Buy on Chicago’s Magnificent Mile were packed, but employees said most of the customers were tourists.

The lack of enthusiasm is troubling.

As Bloomberg reports, a perpetually optimistic National Retail Federation projects that about 137.4 million consumers will make purchases in stores or online over the four-day weekend that starts on Thanksgiving. The amount Americans have spent has declined in the last three years, slipping 26 percent from 2013 to an average of $299.60 per person last year, according to the trade group. To be sure, at least superficially, there should be good news:

By most accounts, this holiday season is expected be a boon for retailers. Unemployment, gasoline prices and inflation are low, while wages, home values and the stock market continue to rise. Shoppers have the wherewithal to spend, and now retailers are hoping the holiday season will give them a reason to. Companies such as Kohl’s Corp., Gap Inc. and Barnes & Noble Inc. have said the U.S. presidential election was a major cause of consumers’ recent reluctance to open their wallets. With the outcome settled, they’re expecting the dollars to finally flow.

Oh yes, the “I don’t know who will be president so I won’t buy that TV excuse.” It was laughable when it first emerged, and it is even more laughable now that contrary to expectations, Americans are failing to unelash their purchasing animal spirits. Maybe now they are worried about Jill Stein’s recount?

And yet, nothing will dent the NRF’s optimism, which expects that U.S. retail spending is expected to rise 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion in November and December as “retailers are poised to take full advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday period, now known by some as Black Week, which accounts for about 15 percent of holiday spending, according to the trade group.”

What is even more troubling is that physical retailers have made every possible concession to consumers to get them through the door and spend, spend, spend.

J.C. Penney will open its doors at 3 p.m. on Thursday to reach shoppers before they tuck into their Thanksgiving feasts. EBay Inc. is trying to push the selling even earlier: It rebranded the day before Thanksgiving as Mobile Wednesday, using discounts to target traveling Americans. The sales will stretch through the weekend, with online and brick-and-mortar companies offering deals for Cyber Monday.

 

Investors are confident that the retail industry will see strong sales. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retail Index has risen 4.9 percent so far in November and is on pace for its best monthly return since July. Retail stocks have outpaced the broader market since the U.S. presidential election, with the index up 4.7 percent since Nov. 8, compared with the broader S&P 500’s 3 percent rally. Historical studies indicate that elections affect the timing of retail sales rather than the overall volume, said Jerry Storch, CEO of Saks Fifth Avenue owner Hudson’s Bay Co.

 

“Hopefully, when we get to Black Friday, which really tolls the bell of holiday shopping, then the consumer will start looking forward to Christmas,” Storch said.

Indeed, while actual revenues may be lacking, optimism is prevalent as retails hope that finally US consumer will beging spending. “That would be a welcome development for merchants that have yet to see a sales bump materialize. Dollar sales in the second week of November were 8 percent lower than in the same period a year earlier, according to research firm NPD Group. The decline was broad-based, too, with drops in apparel, toys, technology, athletic footwear and perfumes, the firm said.”

* * *

However. what appears to be yet another year of pain for traditional, bricks and mortar retailers, will likely result in further gains for online vendors.

According to Reuters, Chicago’s State Street, a normally bustling shopping area popular with locals, was desolate. Shaun Smith, a 29-year-old restaurant manager, said he only came to the State Street store to take advantage of a deal for a $279 Westinghouse TV which is normally priced over $600.  “I will buy most of what I need online,” he said.

“If Amazon had everything, like everything you need in the world, I would buy everything from there,” said Oscar Viral, a 58-year-old chef in New York. “I wanted something from Macy’s, and I got on the Internet because they didn’t have it available in the store.”

Confirming this, moments ago Amazon.com reported that Black Friday is already on pace to surpass Black Friday last year, in terms of items ordered, adding that In first few hours, Amazon customers have ordered >100k toys. Alexa devices are some of the best-selling items on Amazon.com so far today, including Echo Dot, Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote. The company also adds that Instant Pot 7-in-1 Multi-functional Cooker, Hasbro’s Pie Face Game, WeMo Switch Smart Plug (Works with Amazon Alexa) and Sennheiser HD 598 Headphones also among best- selling deals today.

* * *

Amazon is just one of many alternatives: for shoppers who are ready to spend, they have more ways than ever to do so, with retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. offering exclusive deals to customers who download their mobile applications. Non-store sales may increase 7 percent to 10 percent this year, reaching as much as $117 billion, according to the NRF. Online sales account for the bulk of this measure, the group said.

Online spending by U.S. bargain hunters climbed to above $1 billion by Thanksgiving evening, according to Adobe Digital Index, surging almost 14 percent from a year ago and reflecting a broader trend away from brick-and-mortar shopping. At the start of the first holiday shopping season since the election of Donald Trump as president on November 8, U.S. consumers loosened their purse strings and spent $1.15 billion online between midnight and 5 pm ET on Thursday, according to Adobe. The Adobe figure is collected from 21 billion online visits to 4,500 U.S. retail sites since Nov. 1.

“We saw one of our strongest days ever online,” Brian Cornell, chief executive of discount retailer Target, told reporters on Thursday evening. He added that online sales grew by double digits, without giving further details.

“Online discounts are earlier and a lot bigger than last year,” said Tamara Gaffney, principal research analyst at Adobe Digital Index.

While the surge in online spending is unmistakable, the question is whether the 7-10% increase in online sales to $117 billion will offset what is shaping up to be another tepid holiday season for traditional retailers. If so, with the election now behind us, we wonder just what the next “latest and greatest” excuse used by retail CEOs will be on Q4 conference calls should the always delayed rebound in US spending fail to materialize yet again..

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Authored by Eric Zuesse, originally posted at Strategic-Culture.org,

Too late actually to compete in the 2012 Republican Presidential primaries, Donald Trump prepared in August of that year a TV ad to show how he would have been campaigning against Obama’s re-election if he were to have been running against him. 

Here it is:

Because the ad features (at 2:37) this headline, «U.S. Unemployment Climbs to 8.3%», from the Chicago Tribune on 3 August 2012, it had to have been prepared after that date.

At 2:08 in this video appears Obama’s 26 March 2012 off-mic private assurance to Putin through Medvedev, that when Obama gets re-elected he’ll end America’s continuing Cold War against Russia. (Obama was specifically talking there about his willingness to accommodate Putin’s objections against installation in Europe of America’s anti-ballistic-missile (ABM, or also called Ballistic Missile Defense, BMD) system — which promise to Medvedev turned out to have been a lie. (And Obama was, even then,already planning his coup to overthrow the Moscow-friendly leader of Russia’s neighboring Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, which coup culminated in February 2014.) Trump’s comment there to Obama about that off-mic clip was: «Frankly, it makes us worry whether we can trust you at all». However, this was actually a cheap shot by Trump, because everyone knows that negotiations between countries take place in secret, just as any negotiations of any deal necessarily must. If and when a deal is finalized, it normally (but not always) is made public; and, if the deal is between democratic nations, then the deal doesn’t go into effect unless and until it becomes ratified by the legislatures of the respective countries. But Trump wasn’t criticizing Obama for lying to Putin; he was criticizing Obama for promising there to negotiate with Russia (something that Trump himself as a 2016 Presidential candidate very publicly promised to do). Trump in 2016 publicly promised to do, what Obama in 2012 privately promised to do and was in 2012 criticized in this ad by Trump for having done.

Trump’s ad closed (3:40): «President Obama, you’re fired».

The Republican National Convention occurred during 27-30 August 2012, and so this Trump TV commercial was probably created in order for him to be able to show it to potential financial backers for a 2016 White House campaign by Trump — the type of ads he would be running against, presumably, Hillary Clinton.

As regards why Trump didn’t run against Obama in 2012, one can only speculate.

Trump knew, at least as early as the 30 April 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner, where Obama referred contemptuously to Trump when addressing Washington’s elite, that Obama was an extremely formidable political opponent, who possessed an unmatched ease and grace, even when revenge-seeking. Some commentators say that Trump entered the 2016 Presidential contest in order to exact revenge against Obama by destroying Obama's Presidential legacy, but there’s no significant Obama legacy to destroy (other than Obamacare, which is already failing of its own accord); and, anyway, the hypothesis that Trump sought the Presidency for reasons having to do with that skewering of him by Obama is very weak and is basically unsupported.

Furthermore, there is solid evidence that Obama not only wanted Hillary Clinton to beat Bernie Sanders to become his successor, but that Obama absolutely loathed Trump and wanted Hillary’s campaign to clobber him and remove him from America’s political future: During the White House Correspondents Dinner on 30 April 2016, Obama skewered Trump yet again, at 9:40 and 14:00 and 20:00 in the video of the speech, and Trump absented himself from that occasion, so as to leave Obama punching an absent bag. In that same speech, Obama praised (17:00) «Hillary’s toughness, her smarts, her policy chops, her experience,» and mentioned Bernie Sanders (14:55) as if he were just the Democratic Party’s cuddly pet and «especially his appeal to young people» (the main people petting him) — as if Hillary were the candidate preferred by the adults (who knew better).

Trump knew better than to pit himself politically in a contest against the most gifted American politician since — well, perhaps ever. McCain and Romney had been Obama’s punching-bags, and cleared that competition away from the Republican primaries field now in 2016 — time for Trump to step into the ring, finally, against the glass-jawed Hillary Clinton, and deliver the knockout blow that, perhaps, only Stephen Bannon was expecting.

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• Gold down 13% in 13 trading days since Trump election
• Factors that have led to lower gold prices
• Trump bearish for gold in coming four years?
• ‘Trumpflation’ cometh
• Sharia gold – vaulted gold accessible to 110 million new investors
• What to do? Diversify and geometric price cost average

Donald Trump was elected President and the gold price surged 5%, over $60, from $1,271/oz to $1,336/oz. As many of us had suggested it would. And then something strange happened, something not expected by the majority of market participants – it started to fall, the dollar strengthened.

We now have a gold price that is down 13% since the US election result – from a high of $1,336/oz to a low of $1,177/oz this morning. This is a drop of 13% in just 13 trading days since the election.

Does this mean that Trump and his Presidency isn’t going to be very bullish for gold prices as so many of us predicted? Does this mean that gold is going to underperform  or worse, enter a bear market in the next four years?

We don’t think so. Indeed, we see this as extremely unlikely. We outline below just some of the factors that have lead to the recent declines in the gold price, and outline why we don’t think this is a sign of things to come.

US dollar strengthens as Federal rate hike looms

For many in the gold space the miserable gold price is thanks to the expectations that Janet Yellen and co. will decide to hike rates thanks to some mixed data that suggestes a strengthening US jobs market. These were the noises emanating from the recent Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meeting press release.

The US Dollar has rallied to its highest level since 2005 this week, largely on the back of these Fed expectations. Higher borrowing costs can hurt gold bullion as strategic buyers look at gold in the context of yields and interest payments. Although this is less the case now given ultra loose zero percent and negative interest rate monetary policies.

ETF support gone … for now

In 2016 gold demand has been supported by stellar ETF demand as, according to the World Gold Council, the high gold price in Q3 had a negative impact on gold demand, elsewhere.

For the SPDR Gold Trust and the iShares Gold Trust combined inflows are worth around $13.6 billion for this year (a record).

Both jewellery and gold bars and coin sales have reached levels this year not seen since 2009. But physical demand has not reflected such levels in Q3. After very significant demand and the price surge in Q1 and Q2, Q3 saw a reduction in demand for jewellery and coins and bars.

Whilst central banks, which have been huge buyers (and therefore supporters) in the physical gold market, have reduced gold reserve diversification to 33% of that in 2015.

“ETPs were the only bright spot during the quarter, with 146t of inflows helping to counterbalance weak demand elsewhere, notably in jewellery (-21%), bars and coins (-36%) and purchases by central banks (-51%).”

But that bright spot has started to dim since the Trump’s victory:

According to ETF.com “in the week since the election, outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust and the iShares Gold Trust totalled $1.7 billion…the aftermath of the elections has clearly dampened enthusiasm for gold among ETF investors.”

Therefore it is unsurprising that a market that has been significantly supported by one investment product is now struggling as the outflows add up.

But the ETF argument raises an interesting point

As the World Gold Council stated in their recent report, much of the activity surrounding gold purchases this year (especially in the area of ETFs) shows strategic buying rather than investment buying.

This was no more clear than on the early hours of the election night on November 9th, as Jim Rickards recently outlined,

“Gold prices surged late on Nov. 8 and into the early morning hours of Nov. 9 as a Trump victory became clear. This was exactly in line with my expectations. Based on sentiment and momentum, gold should have held those gains.

Instead, one of the largest and most visible individual gold investors, Stan Druckenmiller, decided to liquidate his entire gold position in the middle of the night. Druckenmiller told CNBC: “I sold all my gold on the night of the election… All the reasons I have owned it for the last couple of years, it seems to me they may be ending. And by the way, they’re ending globally.”

The move by Druckenmiller saw gold continue to decline in the following days thanks to a change in sentiment. Many sheep like traders adopted a ‘me too’ attitude. Momentum is a powerful thing in markets.

Do the reasons to own gold no longer exist?

In short, no.

In lengthier words, still no. One of the main reasons for the dollar strength and uptick in industrial metals is because Trump is expected to spend, spend, spend his way back to making ‘America Great Again.’ The Donald in the White House means reduced regulation, a fall in corporate taxes and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus.

‘Trumpflation’ cometh.

All of this without any thought to the inflationary effects.

Jim Rickards, explains:

“If the Fed accommodates the deficit with “helicopter money,” inflation will surge. If the Fed leans against the big deficits with rate hikes, this will cause a stronger dollar and lead to a global liquidity crisis in emerging markets.

If bank regulation is eased, banks can be relied upon to leverage up with risky derivatives, which will make the next financial crisis more, not less, likely. Druckenmiller’s stated reasons for selling gold are equivalent to saying, ‘I cancelled my fire insurance because now that Trump is president, we won’t have any more fires.’ Don’t count on it.”

Druckenmiller is a great investor but like the majority of investors simply does not understand gold’s role as a hedging instrument and financial insurance – either through choosing not to or through lack of knowledge.

Both Brexit and the Trump victory have wrong footed the financial markets and we are heading into unchartered territory both politically and economically. Unchartered territory means complex decisions are needed to be made by both governments and investors in order to navigate their way through over the coming years.

Uncertainty will lead to bargain hunting

A lot of uncertainty remains in both the geopolitical and economic arenas.

Conventional wisdom told us that gold would benefit from a Trump win, and in truth we haven’t seen the results of Trump win. This will play out over the next four years, and this is where we expect the precious metal to benefit.

Aside from Trump’s disastrous spending policies and strategic gold buyers dumping the metal for equities, there are some highlights to consider in the next few months.

With each Republican nomination contest we see at least one candidate mention the role of gold in the monetary system. In this recent one, we had a couple and one of them was Donald Trump.

It’s highly unlikely Trump is going to be forcing Janet Yellen to announce a return to the gold standard, but we may well see more discussion about gold’s monetary role.

In addition to Trump taking a shine to gold, the gold market is soon to see a significant increase in investors when vaulted gold coins and bars become accessible to over 110 million Muslim investors in Turkey, Pakistan,  Malaysia, Indonesia, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

As we outlined last week, the Sharia Gold Standard or Islamic Gold Standard is set to be announced, this will allow Muslims around the world to invest in physical gold.

The reasons to own gold have not disappeared in the dawn-of Trump. As Rickards says:

“The reasons to own gold are insurance against extreme risk, as a hedge against inflation, and as a sound form of money in a world where central banks are losing control. All of those reasons still apply”

There are also the not inconsiderable risks posed by the Italian referendum on Sunday week, December 4th, and the French general election on April 23, 2017. Both of which have the potential to plunge the Eurozone into a new crisis – a potentially existential one.

Medium and Long Term (2017-2025) ‘MSGM’ Fundamentals

The long term case for having an allocation to precious metals is due to the still positive fundamentals:

• Macroeconomic risk is high as there is a serious risk of recessions in major industrial nations with negative data emanating from the debt laden Eurozone, Japan and China. Even the recoveries in the UK and the U.S. are tentative at best. Issues with banks, a la Lehman or Deutsche, or a major terrorist incident or another war could badly impact fragile consumer and investor sentiment.

• Systemic risk remains high as little of the problems in the banking system have been addressed. There remains the risk of another ‘Lehman Brothers’ moment or a new ‘Grexit’ moment and seizing up of the global financial system. The massive risk from the unregulated “shadow banking system” continues to be significantly underappreciated. There are many potential Lehman Brothers out there both in the Eurozone with Deutsche Bank looking very vulnerable.

• Geopolitical risk  remains elevated – and Trump’s election seems likely to exacerbate these risks. This is seen in the continuing significant tensions in Lebanon, Syria etc and between Iran and Israel. There is the real risk of conflict and the consequent effect on oil prices and the global economy. While tensions with Russia may subside with the Trump election, tensions with Iran and other Muslim nations look set to worsen.Indeed Trump’s trade and economic policies have the potential to create significant tensions even with major trading partners in the EU and with China.

• Monetary risk is high as the policy response of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England, the BOJ and the majority of central banks to the risks mentioned above continues to be ultra-loose monetary policies, zero interest rate policies (ZIRP), negative interest rate policies (NIRP), the printing and electronic creation of a tsunami of currency and the debasement of paper and electronic currencies.Should the macroeconomic, systemic and geopolitical risks increase even further in the coming months, then the central banks’ response will likely again be more cheap money policies. This will lead to further currency debasement and there is a risk of currency wars deepening.

Given these real risks, investors should use this latest correction to diversify into physical gold.

There is a strong case for having higher allocations to physical gold today, of as much as 25% of a portfolio, given the risks above.  We advise owning physical gold as gold ETFs have significant levels of legal indemnifications and various forms of force majeures that exposes investors to unnecessary risks with little recourse.

Hence the importance of physical, allocated and segregated gold “outside the banking system.”

Those seeking to allocate funds to precious metals should geometrically price cost average into position by front loading their initial allocation and allocating as much of 50% of their allocation to gold on the first transaction.

This latest bout of weakness will allow value buyers to accumulate physical on the dip.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold hits 9-1/2-month low on firm dollar; set for third weekly loss (Reuters.com)

Gold futures fall further below $1,200 mark (MarketWatch.com)

Gold edges lower on dollar and U.S. rate prospects (Reuters.com)

Potential gold-import ban by India could be biggest bombshell since Nixon (MarketWatch.com)

Mastercard, Visa Set to Reap Spoils of India’s War on Cash (Bloomberg.com)

Trump’s Victory: What Does it Mean for Gold? (TocqueVille.com)

ECB Warns There Is “Significant Risk Of Abrupt Market Reversal” (ZeroHedge.com)

$6 Billion Puke Sends Gold Plunging Below $1200 As Dollar Index, Bond Yields Spike (ZeroHedge.com)

Chart of the week: “shrinkflation” hits the chocolate market (MoneyWeek.com)

Gold: valuable reserve amid unprecedented policy environment (Gold.org)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

25 Nov: USD 1,187.50, GBP 995.33 & EUR 1,121.83 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 1,187.25, GBP 995.36 & EUR 1,125.04 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,213.25, GBP 998.00 & EUR 1,143.00 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,217.55, GBP 997.89 & EUR 1,144.98 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 1,214.95, GBP 984.72 & EUR 1,143.39 per ounce
18 Nov: USD 1,206.10, GBP 971.15 & EUR 1,135.54 per ounce
17 Nov: USD 1,232.00, GBP 988.19 & EUR 1,148.10 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

25 Nov: USD 16.47, GBP 13.21 & EUR 15.55 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 16.31, GBP 13.09 & EUR 15.43 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 16.56, GBP 13.36 & EUR 15.59 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 16.76, GBP 13.46 & EUR 15.77 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 16.68, GBP 13.47 & EUR 15.69 per ounce
18 Nov: USD 16.51, GBP 13.30 & EUR 15.54 per ounce
17 Nov: USD 17.04, GBP 13.65 & EUR 15.87 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– War On Cash Just Got Real – India and Citibank In Australia
– Russia Gold Buying In October Is Biggest Monthly Allocation Since 1998
– Stocks, Bonds, Pension Funds “Will Be Wiped Out…” – Rickards
– Physical Gold Is A “Long-Term Position” as “Hedge Against Governments”
– Gold Sell Off On Fed Noise – “Interesting Times” To “Support Gold”
– Islamic Gold – Vital New Dynamic In Physical Gold Market
– Peak Gold Globally – “Bullish For Gold”
– Gold Price Should Go Higher On Global Risks and Trump – Capital Economics
– President Trump – Why Market Loves Him and Experts Wrong
– ‘Helicopter Money President’ Trump To Create Inflation and Gold Will Rise
– Central Bank Gold Demand continues in Q3
– Trump Victory Sends Gold Surging 5%
– An uncertain election outcome looks good for gold

via http://ift.tt/2fyh3Zc GoldCore

• Dollar rally pauses, Italian stocks underperform (Reuters)
• Retailers Vie for Black Friday Dollars (WSJ)
• Holiday Price War Intensifies as Wal-Mart, Target Pursue Amazon (BBG)
• U.S. Pushes Iran on New Measures to Fortify Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
• Brent and WTI see small gains as end of year approaches (Reuters)
• Turkey’s Erdogan threatens to let 3m refugees into Europe (FT)
• Meet the man who could lead Trump’s immigration crackdown (The Hill)
• Austrian election tests support for European populism in Trump era (FT)
• Blue-collar Democrats to party: It’s still the economy, stupid (Reuters)
• Trump’s media feud enters new era (Hill)
• China to Issue ‘Strict Controls’ on Overseas Investment (WSJ)
• No Credit History? No Problem. Lenders Are Looking at Your Phone Data (BBG)
• Housing Frenzy Bedevils Beijing (WSJ)
• U.S. Naval Patrols Threaten Sovereignty: Chinese Think Tank (BBG)
• Iraq Commanders Weigh Tactical Shift in Mosul (WSJ)
• Secret Service in talks to rent space in Trump Tower: report (The Hill)
• Trump will pursue ‘regional hegemony’ in South China Sea: Chinese academics (Reuters)
• Talks on Final Brexit Deal Will Have to Wait, U.K. Is Warned (BBG)
• Passenger trains collide in Iran, at least 31 killed (Reuters)
• Trump Is a ‘Game Changer’ for Auto Industry, Fiat CEO Says (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– The U.S. and its western allies are pressing Iran to take steps to sharply cut the amount of radioactive material it holds in a bid to shore up last year’s nuclear deal and discourage the incoming Trump administration from abandoning it, western officials said. on.wsj.com/2gmsrs7

– In the battle for shoppers, traditional retailers have been moving discounts earlier in November, linking their stores and websites more closely and finding ways to capitalize on the rise in mobile shopping. on.wsj.com/2fVjmpJ

– An internal debate over President-elect Donald Trump’s secretary-of-state appointment has spilled into the open, with some prominent Republicans close to Trump arguing for a loyal supporter to fill the post rather than longtime critic Mitt Romney. on.wsj.com/2gET1x5

– As the U.S. labor market tightens and the population of undocumented immigrants shrinks, employers in industries such as hospitality, construction and agriculture are scrambling to fill jobs they say Americans don’t want. on.wsj.com/2glsAw4

– Shares of smaller companies with higher tax rates which focus on domestic customers have been doing well since the election, as investors reevaluate in view of expected changes from President-elect Donald Trump. on.wsj.com/2fXIkof

– Since Trump’s victory, average rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage have leapt to their highest level since June 2015, taking a toll on the market. on.wsj.com/2gaxn0i

– Iraqi commanders in the fight to liberate Mosul from Islamic State want the government to change tactics and encourage residents to flee the city, freeing the military to use heavy artillery and air power. on.wsj.com/2ftgEUB

 

FT

* Britain’s wage growth prospects look “dreadful”, The Institute for Fiscal Studies said on Thursday, after official economic forecasts showed workers were unlikely to recoup losses suffered after the financial crisis within the next five years.

* Iceland said on Thursday it had taken legal action against Iceland Foods Ltd over the British supermarket chain’s trademark registration for the word “Iceland”.

* Following a wave of wildfires across Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters that, “Every fire that was caused by arson, or incitement to arson, is terrorism by all accounts. And we will treat it as such”.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The Chinese government has agreed to work with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to combat the flow of illicit fentanyl into Canada, tacitly acknowledging the deadly impact of the Asian country’s sprawling chemicals industry on this nation’s overdose epidemic. https://tgam.ca/2fM1P0d

** As opposition begins to mount against Toronto Mayor John Tory’s new plan to impose tolls on the city’s two biggest expressways, he challenged his critics to explain where they would find the billions needed for transit and other infrastructure. https://tgam.ca/2fM2LBX

** Canadian timber producers are bracing for another costly trade war with the United States after Ottawa warned that a U.S. lobby group will fire the first shot Friday – with hefty American duties on softwood lumber from Canada expected to follow in spring 2017. https://tgam.ca/2fM41Vj

NATIONAL POST

** The Liberal government has brought in an unprecedented gag order that prevents 235 Canadian military personnel and federal workers from ever talking about the program, now underway, to replace the country’s fighter jets. http://natpo.st/2fLZkLo

** The Alberta government will pay three coal-fired electric generating companies C$1.36 billion ($1.01 billion) for the province’s decision to close their plants early, while also potentially avoiding a lawsuit with other power companies in the province. http://bit.ly/2fM0lTA

** There is zero chance Savanna Energy Services Corp’s shareholders will accept a hostile takeover bid from a competing oilfield services company, analysts say, though the bid could affect Savanna’s attempt to restructure its debts. http://bit.ly/2fM0k2a

 

Britain

The Times

* Big airlines have been told to add extra time to flight schedules from Gatwick because of concerns over mounting delays at Britain’s second busiest airport. http://bit.ly/2gr9dzi

* The Scottish technology “unicorn” Skyscanner has been snapped up by China’s Ctrip.com International for 1.4 billion pounds ($1.74 billion), hours after the chancellor outlined new plans to prevent our fastest growing technology companies being sold to bigger companies. http://bit.ly/2gr7yJZ

The Guardian

* Lidl is handing out a 2.4 percent pay rise to its lowest-paid staff to put them on the new independently verified living wage. http://bit.ly/2grad6t

* The government of Iceland has launched legal action against its namesake British grocery chain over the use of its name. The island of Iceland is challenging Iceland Foods’ exclusive ownership of the European-wide trademark registration for the word Iceland which it said was preventing the country’s companies from promoting goods and services abroad. http://bit.ly/2gr3jyb

The Telegraph

* Baby and toddler retailer Mothercare has become the latest in a string of companies to warn that it will have to push prices up next year following the sterling slump. Mark NewtonJones, chief executive, said that he expected to raise shop prices by between 3 pence and 5 pence as a result of higher import costs. http://bit.ly/2gr6Oop

* Legal & General has sold off its Dutch business to Chesnara, the owner of Countrywide’s old pensions arm, in the latest in a wave of asset sales sweeping the industry. http://bit.ly/2gr7nyp

Sky News

* A former Unilever executive, Harish Manwani, is in the frame to take on the chairmanship of Tata Sons, the Indian conglomerate which owns Jaguar Land Rover and the Port Talbot steel plant in south Wales. http://bit.ly/2gra0QD

* Domino’s Pizza is to create 14,000 more UK jobs than previously planned as it ramps up its expansion ambitions despite rising pressure on its prices. http://bit.ly/2gr8RZz

The Independent

* U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to pick Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor nicknamed “king of bankruptcy” for buying and restructuring beaten-down companies, as Secretary of Commerce, according to a senior transition official. http://ind.pn/2gr1L7p

 

via http://ift.tt/2gbUiZ9 Tyler Durden

As reported yesterday, India’s unexpected crackdown on “black money” which saw the elimination of the old high denomination bills, is not going well, not only because former PM Manmohan Singh slammed the idea warning it would cut as much as 2% from the GDP of the world’s fastest growing economy, but because so far the voluntary participation in the “exchange” of old for new notes ahead of today’s exchange suspension (deposits of old cash may still take place until December 31) has been far below expectations.

As a result, the government is taking even more aggressive steps to part savers with their allegedly “laundered” cash, and as the Indian Express reports, Mody’s cabinet discussed amending laws to levy close to 60% income tax on unaccounted deposits in banks above a threshold post demonetisation of high-denomination currency notes. “The move comes amid banks reporting over Rs 21,000 crore being deposited in zero-balance Jan Dhan accounts in two weeks after the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes were banned, which authorities apprehend may be the laundered black money.”

IE sources said the government was keen to tax all unaccounted money deposited in bank accounts after it allowed the banned currency to be deposited in bank accounts during a 50-day window from November 10 to December 30. The Indian paper adds that there was no official briefing on what transpired in the meeting that was called at short notice as Parliament is in session, further suggesting that the Modi government is indeed panicking, and scrambling to come up with legislation on the fly to demonetize India’s mostly-cash rich population.

There have been various statements on behalf of the government ever since the demonetisation scheme was announced on November 8, which has led to fears of the taxman coming down heavily on suspicious deposits that could be made to launder blackmoney.

 

Officials have even talked of a 30 per cent tax plus a 200 per cent penalty on top of a possible prosecution in cases where blackmoney holders took advantage of the 50-day window for depositing the banned currency.

Reprotedly, in the government’s scramble to sequester cash, the government plans to bring an amendment to the Income Tax Act during the current winter session of Parliament to levy a tax that will be higher than 45 per cent tax and penalty charged on blackmoney disclosed in the one-time Income Disclosure Scheme that ended on September 30. As for those blackmoney holders who did not utilise the window, they would be charged a higher rate which could be close to 60 per cent that the foreign blackmoney holder had paid last year.

But wait, there’s more.

Recall, that as per our report last night, one of the reasons proposed for the recent tumble in gold has been speculation that India may ban gold imports. As a reminder, gold has traditionally been a widely-accepted cash alternative in an economy where gold has long held a supremacy over cash equivalents, to the point where recently the government started paying a dividend to those who deposit their gold to local banks for “safe keeping.”

Well, it now appears that the government is taking its crusade against gold one step futher, and according to a report by NewsRise, the Indian government may soon impose curbs on domestic holdings of gold as Modi intensifies his war against “black money”, news agency NewsRise reported.

As we reported previously, gold prices have soared in India ever since the November 8 demonetization announcement, and premiums jumped to two-year highs last week as jewellers ramped up purchases on fears the government might restrict imports after withdrawing higher-denomination notes from circulation in its fight against black money. 

India is the world’s second biggest gold buyer, and it is estimated that one-third of its annual demand of up to 1,000 tonnes is paid for in black money – untaxed funds held in secret by citizens in cash that don’t appear in any official accounts.  

The move to withdraw higher denomination notes has already started to disrupt cash-based gold smuggling, officials have said.  Scrap gold supplies were also set to halve this quarter as the cash crunch and falling prices make it difficult for consumers to liquidate their holdings.

If the past is any indication, such escalations by the government will only make it even more attractive for the local population to hold gold as a safe “alternative” to cash, which as the past month has shown can be stripped of its value overnight, and will ultimately lead to even greater gold smuggling by the local population, resulting in another spike in the current account deficit, something which has plagued previous administrations, who have repeatedly looked for ways to prevent hot money outflows from the Indian economy.

via http://ift.tt/2gGWqeU Tyler Durden