Eminent Domain Critic, Ayn Rand Superfan, Former Cato CEO John Allison Could Run Trump’s Treasury

The Trump administration is slowly coming together and a libertarian is reportedly among those being considered to run the Treasury Department.

Bloomberg reports that John Allison, a former president and CEO of the Cato Institute, is on Trump’s short-list for Treasury Secretary. Allison ran the Washington, D.C., based libertarian think tank from October 2012 until April 2015 and continues to sit on the organization’s board today. He is also the former CEO of BB&T, a North Carolina-based investment bank, which he ran from 1989 until 2008.

Currently, Allison is director at Moelis & Co., an investment bank, and is an executive in residence at Wake Forest University’s business school. He is 68 years old.

“John Allison has both the experience and the economic knowledge to be an excellent Treasury Secretary,” Allison Miller, a spokeswoman for Cato, told Reason via email. “Through his work with small businesses at BB&T, he has seen up close the negative effect of regulatory overreach on growth and innovation.”

Bloomberg says Steven Mnuchin, an ex-Goldman Sachs Group partner, remains a leading candidate for the job of Treasury Secretary. David McCormick from Bridgewater Associates and U.S. Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) are other candidates.

If Trump is hoping to signal that he will take the government in a new direction, Allison would be the best choice of the bunch. Not only is Allison an outsider to government, but he’s a critic of the outsized—and often bullying—role that the government plays in regulating the finanical affairs of ordinary Americans.

In 2006, following the U.S. Supreme Court’s controversial ruling (in Kelo V. New London) allowing the use of eminent domain for private development projects, Allison somewhat-famously announced that his bank would not invest in any such developments.

“The idea that a citizen’s property can be taken by the government solely for private use is extremely misguided, in fact it’s just plain wrong,” Allison said at the time. “One of the most basic rights of every citizen is to keep what they own. As an institution dedicated to helping our clients achieve economic success and financial security, we won’t help any entity or company that would undermine that mission and threaten the hard-earned American dream of property ownership.”

Aside from that, Allison is probably best known in libertarian circles for his vocal criticism of the federal regulatory state and for his outspoken Ayn Rand fandom.

He’s criticized the Affordable Care Act for encouraging employers not to insure their employees and instead pass the cost onto the government. That’s because the Affordable Care Act is “designed to fail,” he told John Stossel in 2011.

In 2012, Allison authored a piece for American Banker calling for a complete repeal of Dodd-Frank, the complex legislation passed in the wake of the 2008 economic collapse that gave the government broad powers to regulate financial institutions.

“It is not fixable,” he wrote.

He called the parts of the law that deal with consumer compliance “a fundamental move towards statism” and said Dodd-Frank’s curbs on debit card fees amounted to price fixing that would reduce the availability of banking services to low-income customers and increase costs for everyone else.

Allison criticized Dodd-Frank for failing to deal with the problem of institutions that are supposedly “too big to fail” by institutionalizing government bailouts as backstops against financial collapse.

“Instead, it identifies companies that are too big to fail and ensures that they will be protected by the government,” he wrote.

Allison’s bank accepted more than $3 billion from the federal government through the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, the name given to the bailouts that followed the 2008 financial meltdown. He later told the New York Times that BB&T was “forced” to accept the money.

In the years since the recession, Allison has written two books criticizing the federal government’s heavy-handed efforts at regulating the economy back to good health and praising the value of free markets.

Underpinning his belief in the value of private property and his skepticism toward government intervention is a longstanding devotion to free market philosopher Ayn Rand. In a 2008 interview with NPR, Allison said that Rand changed his life and called Atlas Shrugged “the best defense of capitalism ever written.”

Over the final three years of his tenure at BB&T, Allison gave grants to 25 colleges and universities to start programs dedicated to studying Rand’s books, their underlying economic philosophy, and the works of other important works like Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations.

“To say man is bad because he is selfish is to say that it’s bad because he’s alive,” Allison told a crowd at a convention in 2009, per a New York Times account. “Put balls and chains on good people, and bad things happen.”

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2g4OErW
via IFTTT

Peak Autos? – Increasing Light Vehicle Useful Life Is Disastrous For Auto OEMs

IHS Markit today released their annual study on the average age of light vehicles registered in the U.S..  As expected, the average fleet age continues to tick up and currently stands at 11.6 years.  While this may be great news for consumers, higher quality and longer useful lives can have a detrimental impact on annual auto sales.

“Quality of new vehicles continues to be a key driver of the rising average vehicle age over time,” Mark Seng, global automotive aftermarket practice director at IHS Markit, said in a statement.

 

Not only are vehicles getting older, consumers are keeping their vehicles for longer, too, IHS said. As of the end of 2015, the average length of ownership was 79.3 months — a record — up 1.5 months from the previous year.

 

About 11 million light vehicles were scrapped during 2015, or about 4.3 percent of the overall population, according to IHS.

 

IHS forecasts that the volume of vehicles in the new- to 5-years-old category will grow 16 percent by 2021, while vehicles in the 6- to 11-year-old range will grow 5 percent, and vehicles that are 12 or more years old will grow 10 percent.

 

The market research company said the oldest vehicles on the road are growing the fastest. Vehicles 16 years and older are expected to grow 30 percent from 62 million units today to 81 million in 2021.

 

IHS research also showed that there will be more than 20 million vehicles on the road in 2021that will be more than 25 years old.

Per data from the Bureau of Transportation, the aging auto fleet is nothing new.  The average age of vehicles on the road in the U.S. has increased over 3 years in just the past 20 years. 

Autos

 

That said, what is new is that there are roughly 265mm light vehicles registered in the U.S. today compared to only 255mm driving age people, or just over 1 car per driver. So, while annual auto sales have historically been able to absorb quality gains with increased penetration rates, that game is likely now over.

Just to illustrate the potential problem, the following table shows the implied U.S. auto SAAR based on varying useful life assumptions….each 1 year expansion in a vehcle’s useful life cuts about 1mm out of required annual sales.

Autos

 

Said another way, in order to maintain the current 18mm annual selling rate of vehicles in the US, with a 20-year assumed useful life, each driving age person would have to own 1.4 vehicles.  We’re certainly not math geniuses but we’re pretty sure you can only drive 1 car at a time.

Autos

 

As our readers know, we’ve frequently noted that ,with an implied total SAAR of 18.0mm for the U.S. market, that auto sales have likely peaked. 

Auto Sales

 

With full penetration rates, increasing vehicle useful lives and the threat of autonomous vehicles increasing utilization rates, it’s difficult to see how “normalized” auto sales aren’t substantially lower than the current run-rate of 18mm.  Moreover, with interest rates starting to rise and auto buyers extremely sensitive to monthly payments, we suspect the auto SAAR game is reaching the end of it’s useful life.

via http://ift.tt/2fGzsjV Tyler Durden

Markets are Pricing in a 100% Chance for a December Hike, Next Up June of 2017

Considering the market just hiked the 10yr by 65bps over the past two weeks, I’d say a 25bps hike in the Fed funds rate is a rather moot point now. The next question the market will need to answer is ‘when will they hike next?’

For the Fed, this is an ideal situation to be in. Although the economy blows, as evidenced by the upcoming holiday shopping season expected to be down 3.5% year over year, markets have somehow found themselves at record highs. Hiking rates into new highs is exactly what they’ve been desiring for the past year.

The Fed Funds futures are now indicating a 100% chance for a December hike. Moreover, futures are giving a 61% chance of another hike in June of 2017.

img_5712

The Fed minutes came out a short while ago and were hawkish, as expected.

“Some participants noted that recent committee communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting,” the record of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed. Many officials said a rate rise could be appropriate “relatively soon,” data permitting, it said.

Markets seem to be entirely disinterested with anything fundamental related, gleefully gliding into national festival at record highs, rather enjoying the monstrous spike in sovereign borrowing rates that will impose itself in the form of a widening of the budget deficit and increase in the cost of any Trump proposed fiscal stimulus projects.

Next up: Black Friday.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.

via http://ift.tt/2ggINiz The_Real_Fly

Putin “Buys The Dip” – Russia’s Gold Buying In October Largest In Millenium

Submitted by Mark O’Byrne via GoldCore.com,

Russia gold buying accelerated in October with the Russian central bank buying a very large 48 metric tonnes or 1.3 million ounces of gold bullion.

russia_gold_buying

This is the largest addition of gold to the Russian monetary reserves since 1998 and could be seen as a parting ‘gift’ by Putin to his rival ex-President Obama.

The Russian central bank gold purchase is the biggest monthly gold purchase of this millennium.

Concerns about systemic risk, currency wars and the devaluation of the dollar, euro and other major currencies has led to ongoing diversification into gold bullion purchases by large creditor nation central banks such as Russia and China.

Commerzbank went with the simple explanation:

“Clearly the central bank was taking advantage of the stronger ruble – which has made gold cheaper in local currency – to buy more gold.”

 

“By contrast, the Chinese central bank bought only around four tons of gold last month – the second-lowest gold purchases since China began publishing monthly figures back in June 2015. The currency is likely to have played a role here, too – the yuan has been depreciating noticeably since the end of September.”

However, the Russian Central Bank has quietly been buying huge volumes of gold over the last 10 years. This diversification into gold accelerated since the financial crisis and since relations with the U.S. deteriorated in recent years. Russia bought gold systematically both when the ruble was strong and when it was weak.

In 2015, Russia added a record 208 tons of gold to her reserves compared with 172 tons for 2014.

According to the World Gold Council, only the central banks of the U.S., Germany, Italy, France and China currently hold larger gold reserves than Russia.

The Central Bank of Russia has outpaced the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) by nearly 150 tonnes in the last seven years, and has been the world’s largest central bank buyer of gold reserves for some time. This trend is expected to continue.

Total gold mining production globally is  around 3,200 metric tonnes per year.

Thus, Russia’s purchase of 48 metric tonnes is around 1.5% of total annual global gold production. This is a very large amount for one country to buy in just one month.

Some of the gold bought will have come from Russian gold production which is currently at about 26 metric tonnes per month. In 2014, Russia was the third largest gold miner in the world at 266.2 tonnes, just six tonnes short of Australia in second place and China in first place.

The Russian central bank is buying all of Russian gold production and sometimes buying gold on the international market.

This demand is solely from the Russian central bank. There is little data regarding investor, high net worth (HNW) and ultra high net worth (UHNW) individuals including family offices who are diversifying into gold in Russia.

Russia is an increasingly wealthy nation with thousands of millionaires and hundreds of billionaires including mega rich oligarchs. It seems likely that some of these Russian investors are also diversifying into gold.

Clearly, Russia puts great strategic importance on its gold reserves. Both Prime Minister Medvedev and President Putin  have been photographed on numerous occasions holding gold bars and coins. The Russian central bank declared in May 2015 that Russia views gold bullion as “100% guarantee from legal and political risks.”

Prudent investors are following Russia’s lead by diversifying and having an allocation to physical gold coins and bars.

via http://ift.tt/2ggJ3xZ Tyler Durden

Education Association Slams Trump’s “Anti-Common Core” Nominee For Education Secretary

Continuing his announcements of cabinet appointees, Donald Trump said he is nominating Betsy DeVos for Education secretary – a billionaire GOP donor, she also once served as head of the Michigan Republican Party. In a statement Wednesday, Trump called DeVos a “brilliant and passionate education advocate.”

“Under her leadership we will reform the U.S. education system and break the bureaucracy that is holding our children back so that we can deliver world-class education and school choice to all families. I am pleased to nominate Betsy as Secretary of the Department of Education,” Trump said.

She is the current chairwoman of the American Federation for Children, an education advocacy group pushing school choice policies.

DeVos said she was “honored” and vowed to work with the president-elect on his “vision to make American education great again.” She said in a statement that “the status quo in education is not acceptable” and added that “together, we can work to make transformational change that ensures every student in America has the opportunity to fulfill his or her highest potential.

DeVos could face scrutiny from conservatives over her past support for Common Core educational standards.

DeVos is a vocal advocate of school choice and vouchers to allow parents to send their children to alternative schools. Clearly, those policies are strongly opposed by teachers unions, and as the president of the National Education Association, Lily Eskelsen Garcia, tweeted, “nominating Betsy DeVos shows just how out of touch @realdonaldtrump is with what works best for students, parents, educators & communities.”

 

DeVos originally supported the controversial standards at the state level, and funded a group, the Great Lakes Education Project, to promote them.  Other notable Republicans who once backed those standards similarly changed their views, arguing that they were an example of federal overreach, including former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.). Bush faced tough questions from conservatives during his own failed presidential bid about his education policies, in particular Common Core.

On Wednesday, he also praised Trump’s selection of DeVos, calling her an “outstanding pick.”

“She has a long and distinguished history championing the right of all parents to choose schools that best ensure their children’s success. Her allegiance is to families, particularly those struggling at the bottom of the economic ladder, not to an outdated public education model that has failed them from one generation to the next,” he said in a Facebook post.

But perhaps what is most important is that according to sources, she opposed Common Core once it became a federal standard. To be sure, she confirmed as much moments ago when in a tweet she effectively warned that the Common Core Curriculum is on its way out.

via http://ift.tt/2gBRHuW Tyler Durden

Student’s Reaction to Trump Win: ‘Suck It Up, Pussies.’ Police Are Investigating This Hate Crime.

Post-it-noteAt Edgewood College, police are investigating a post-it-note that was deemed a “hate crime” by college officials.

The post-it-note says “Suck it up, pussies!” Whoever wrote it also drew a winking, tongue-out smiley face, like this:

;P

The message is evidently one student’s response to the Madison, Wisconsin college’s overwhelming dejection following Donald Trump’s election to the presidency.

Students had been invited to express their feelings about the election by writing them on post-it-notes and placing them on a designated table. The post-it-note in question appeared in the window of the Office of Student Diversity and Inclusion instead, according to Campus Reform.

College Vice President Tony Chambers sent a letter to campus condemning this “act of cowardly hatred” and “intimidation.” He wrote:

A group of cross-functional college staff representing campus security, student conduct, human resources, Title IX enforcement, and diversity and inclusion measures convened Tuesday morning to discuss how to address the hateful message. This group determined that the message constituted a Hate Crime…

College officials informed the Madison police, and now the cops are investigating. They are investigating a post-it-note. With a non-threatening message and a smiley face on it. After inviting students to express their feelings via post-it-note.

That’s hate for you, I guess.

Edgewood is asking anyone with knowledge of this hate crime to come forward and help the police catch the perpetrator, because it’s such a very serious matter.

Administrators did not respond to a request for comment.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2gmOMU5
via IFTTT

FOMC Minutes Confirm Rate Hike Imminent “To Preserve Credibility”

A lot has changed since the November 2nd FOMC statement – most notably the world has suddently become awesome again. The relatively benign statement (and election result) has left rate-hike odds at 100% for December but comment from Fischer and Yellen since have hinted concerns at the need for Trump fiscal spendfest. The main risk going in to the minutes was a dovish tilt for the future, tamping the current 'nothing can stop us now' attitude (and we note the dollar leaked lower into the release). But sure enough, The Fed confirmed a rate-hike was approrpoate "relatively soon" and was "important to Fed credibility."

  • *MOST FED OFFICIALS SAW RATE HIKE APPROPRIATE `RELATIVELY SOON'
  • *MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW STABILITY RISKS IF JOB MKT OVERHEATED
  • *SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY FED OFFICIALS SAW RISKS ROUGHLY BALANCED
  • *SOME OFFICIALS SAW DEC. HIKE IMPORTANT TO FED CREDIBILITY
  • *FED OFFICIALS SEE RESERVE BALANCES STAYING LARGE FOR `A WHILE'

*  *  *

Since the Nov FOMC statement, gold and bonds have been crushed as oil and stocks soared…

 

Heading into the minutes, the market has zero expectations of a surprise in December…

 

And looking further out at Fed funds, a 28% chance of a March hike is priced in and that rises to 61% by June and an 88% chance of at least one hike in 2017.

 

Key Excerpts:

Rate Hike Imminent:

Some participants noted that recent Committee communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting. A few participants advocated an increase at this meeting; they viewed recent economic developments as indicating that labor market conditions were at or close to those consistent with maximum employment and expected that recent progress toward the Committee’s inflation objective would continue, even with further gradual steps to remove monetary policy accommodation.

Credibility Concerns:

Some participants noted that recent Committee communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting.  

*  *  *

Full Statement:

can add when you are out

via http://ift.tt/2gmDQWk Tyler Durden

Illinois Stiffing Vendors To Fund Budget Deficits – It’s A “Financial Time Bomb”

Anyone who has ever invested in distressed securities is intimately familiar with the many games that companies play to avoid a bankruptcy filing.  The easiest game, and the most obvious red flag for investors to spot, involves stretching out payables and managing down receivable days to build cash so you can live to fight another day.  While this may provide a temporary cash boost, it’s typically the beginning of the end as vendors simply move payment terms to COD and the game quickly comes to an end.

Well, this is exactly the game that the state of Illinois seems to be playing right now to cover its budget shortfalls. As we just pointed out a couple of days ago (see “Illinois Pension Funding Ratio Sinks To 37.6% As Unfunded Liabilities Surge To $130 Billion“), with a $130BN pension underfunding and minimum annual contributions of $10BN, it’s no surprise that Illinois needs every dollar they can squeeze out of vendors.

So, in response to their budget crisis, Illinois has done what every responsible, insolvent debtor does, namely raise more debt.  Under the program, Illinois vendors are able to sell their receivables to a consortium of lenders who have decided to provide seemingly perpetual loans to the state at a cost 1% per month.  As Reuters points out, the balance of the program is currently around $13.5BN right now but is expected to surge to $47BN by 2022, or nearly double the amount of GO bonds the state has outstanding. 

Political feuding between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and Democrats who control the legislature has kept Illinois without a full operating budget since July 2015, contributing to a doubling of the unpaid bills backlog. The amount of overdue bills could reach $13.5 billion, or 40 percent of available operating revenue, when the current fiscal year ends June 30, the Rauner administration has projected.

 

Come fiscal 2022, the backlog is projected to balloon to $47 billion. No other U.S. state defers payments to the extent Illinois does to manage cash flow, credit-rating analysts said.

 

The one-of-its-kind, bill-payment program seeks to avert the nightmare scenario for a state in the worst financial shape in the country: a shutdown of essential services such as employee health insurance, a disruption of prison food supplies or mothballing of state trooper cars in need of fuel and maintenance.

 

“I don’t think there is any other alternative for us,” Illinois Central Management Services Director Michael Hoffman told a legislative panel in May.

 

The state’s negative credit outlook means its $26 billion of outstanding GO bonds could lurch closer to the junk level if the growing unpaid bill pile impairs its ability to provide essential services, affects debt payments and inflates its already huge $130 billion unfunded pension liability.

And, of course, interest payments on the ballooning debt balance is skyrocketing.

IL

 

And, like any good Illinois public project, this one comes with a healthy dose of corruption and favors to political insiders.

The firms include financial institutions such as Citibank N.A. (C.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), a distressed debt investor tied to a Rauner campaign donor, and political insiders, including Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign manager and a former two-term Republican Illinois governor.

 

Lindsay Trittipoe, majority investor of the second-largest consortium, Illinois Financing Partners LLP, told Reuters his group was performing a vital function rather than exploiting the state’s financial miseries.

 

“Our money is flowing into the market, helping the wheels of commerce to keep working,” he said.

We’re rusty on our 7 step plan, how long does the “denial” phase typically last?

via http://ift.tt/2ghMEPP Tyler Durden

Navy’s New $4 Billion Stealth Warship Breaks Down (Again)

For the second time in two months, The Navy's new $4 billion stealth warship has broken down. As Military.com reports, the ripped-from-the-pages-of-a-sci-fi mag-looking USS Zumwalt is now in Panama for repairs after suffering a breakdown while passing through the Panama Canal on Monday evening.

Military.com's Hope Hodge Seck reports that a spokesman for U.S. 3rd Fleet, Cmdr. Ryan Perry, told Military.com that the commander of 3rd Fleet, Vice Adm. Nora Tyson, had instructed the USS Zumwalt, the first in a new class of stealthy destroyers, to remain at ex-Naval Station Rodman in Panama to address the engineering casualty.

"The timeline for repairs is being determined now, in direct coordination with Naval Sea Systems and Naval Surface Forces," he said in a statement.

 

"The schedule for the ship will remain flexible to enable testing and evaluation in order to ensure the ship's safe transit to her new homeport in San Diego."

An official confirmed to Military.com that the ship had been transiting south through the canal en route to its new San Diego homeport when the incident occurred. The ship had to be towed to pier by the Panama Canal Authority, the official said.

While details about what caused the breakdown were fewNavy Times — which first reported the incident — cited reports about problems with heat exchangers in the ship's integrated power plant that had contributed to the mishap.

It's not the first casualty for the Zumwalt, which was commissioned just last month, on Oct. 15. In September, ahead of its commissioning, the Zumwalt was sidelined due to a problem in its engineering plant, USNI News reported.

Navy officials said the problem was discovered after crew found a seawater leak in the propulsion motor drive lube oil auxiliary system of one of the ship's shafts. That repair was completed at Naval Station Norfolk.

The ship also made headlines earlier this month when multiple outlets reported that the missiles fired from its 155mm Advanced Gun System, at $800,000 apiece, were too expensive for the Navy to buy in large quantities, raising questions about the effectiveness of the ship's weapons.

The Zumwalt, and the two ships planned to follow it, will be assigned to the Pacific as part of the regional rebalance, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in April.

via http://ift.tt/2g4kV26 Tyler Durden

Fear The Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth,

Ever heard of an Alpha quote? That’s how best to classify, “Show me the money!!!”

It didn’t take you but a nanosecond to picture Jerry Maguire screaming that line into his phone. The shame, for lack of a better word, is that another quote from the same movie, that’s almost as good, will only live on to minor fame.

Getting to the not quite as famous quote requires that you navigate not one, but two scenes in the 1996 Tom Cruise blockbuster. Sports agent Maguire has landed an Odessa, Texas high school superstar quarterback. In perfect stereotypical form, the boy’s father is chief negotiator. Out Maguire drives to dusty West Texas to seal the deal, on paper, to which the father replies: “You know I don’t do contracts, but what you do have is my word. And it’s stronger than oak.” One firm handshake later, we see an elated Maguire driving off singing and pounding his steering wheel to the beat of Tom Petty’s “Free Falling.”

Of course, a betrayal follows as sure as night follows day and the father signs, yes signs, with a rival agent offering a sweeter as in “Sugar” deal. But what about the strength of that oak? A pumped-up Maguire arrives for the young star’s big moment and learns that in all likelihood Cushman Senior does sign contracts. To that Maguire bitterly retorts, “I’m still sort of moved by your, ‘My word is stronger than oak’ thing.” The moral we saw coming: Always get it in writing.

But what happens when those written words still aren’t good enough? The occasion of the release of most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes would seem to be a great opportunity to get a behind-the-scenes take on all those round the table machinations. Minutes of lame duck meetings – no press conference, no action – hold even greater appeal, especially if multiple dissents accompany the decision. Hence the media jockeying for instant live reaction at 2 pm EST three weeks to the minute from the moment the statement is released. Hey, it beats waiting around five years for the meeting transcripts.

Did someone mention transcripts? In 2008, Janet Yellen herself suggested – in plain English, mind you – that the FOMC deploy the Minutes as they would any other tool in their quickly dwindling toolbox of conventionality. In the event the data or the markets have not reacted to the meticulously crafted statement in the manner Fed officials intended, whip out the Minutes to reshape the public’s thinking. Rather than become a monkey on her back, Yellen’s suggestion to outright manipulate the Minutes has been embraced by her peers and the public alike; parsing the message in the Minutes has become a favorite Wall Street parlor game.

That is, until today. A massage is one thing, a machete that leaves a blood trail quite another; hence the impossible task of weaving an entirely unexpected election result (especially for those on the FOMC) into the Minutes of a meeting that took place a week beforehand. Today, in other words, we will see relatively clean minutes, the prospect of which holds a whole different kind of appeal. (It may also explain the downright deluge of Fedspeak since the election. Do you get the sense there’s an unwritten Fed policy that dictates more is more when the Minutes have been disengaged?)

Given the violent reaction in the bond market to the election, it’s bound to be killing Yellen to not nod as to how the Fed is apt to react come December 14th. But the truth is the market has already placed its bet, pegging the probability of a quarter-percentage-point hike at a neat 100 percent. That gets us to the “What’s next?” portion of the program, which is when things begin to look a little hazardous.

The brilliant (word not used with even a scintilla of hyperbole) William White was recently honored with the Adam Smith prize, the highest on offer from the National Association of Business Economics. White’s career has been long and esteemed. In 2008, he retired from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and is now chairman of the Economic Development Review Committee of the OECD in Paris. On a personal level, yours truly has been honored to get to know White as fellow participants at The Ditchley Foundation’s annual gatherings.

But back to that, “What’s next?” for Yellen et al. Let’s just say White has uncovered the answer. To mark the occasion of his receiving the Adam Smith award, White penned, “Ultra-Easy Money: Digging a Deeper Hole?” Gotta love the subtlety in that title.

Do yourself a favor and Google the paper and read it in its entirety. It is blessedly readable and free of econometrics, as in approachable by those outside the insular field of economics.

White has never been one to kowtow to his peers. Rather than blindly acquiesce to the notion that monetary policy can solve all the world’s problems, White rightly recognizes the elephant in the room, namely that, “by encouraging still more credit and debt expansion, monetary policy has ‘dug a deeper hole.’” White’s basic premise is that central bankers’ hubris (my word) has deluded them into believing the economy can be modelled, “as an understandable and controllable machine rather than as a complex, adaptive system.”

Prior to the financial crisis, monetary policy was “unnaturally easy” and after the crisis broke, “ultra-easy.” Put differently, the failure of lower for longer was not recognized as a failure and taken as an opportunity from which to learn and grow into a new paradigm. Rather, monetary policymakers dug the hole deeper, insisting that failure be not acknowledged, but instead institutionalized. And so policy has been lower for even longer, exit delayed time and again.

Into this breach, Yellen steps again, one year after her first stab at a rate hike. The rest of the world can be thankful she wears sensible shoes, as opposed to strappy, red stilettos, given the potentially dangerous landing for this second rate hike since 2006. Maybe the Minutes will reveal how heated the discussion was about the impending December hike and its aftermath. We can only hope.

Most of the market’s focus since the election has been on major currencies’ moves against the dollar in reaction to the near one percentage point rise in the benchmark 10-year Treasury off its post-Brexit lows. No doubt, the move in the euro has been nothing short of magnificent. The powers that be at the Bundesbank have to be sweating out the ramifications of the next potential move given the double whammy of an interest rate increase here and a losing vote for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum on December 4th.

You’d never know it given the euphoria in the stock market, but a strong dollar can be harmful to the global economy’s health. While in no way inconsequential, the euro’s weakness pales compared to that of the shellacking underway in emerging market (EM) currencies. According to the BIS, since the financial crisis, outstanding dollar-denominated credit extended to non-bank borrowers outside the United States has increased from $6 trillion to $9.8 trillion.

The game changer in the current episode is the catalyst that drove the growth in EM dollar-denominated debt, namely unconventional Fed policy. The yield drought created by seven years of zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing pushed investors to show EM debt issuers the money. In prior periods, cross border bank loans were the source of the growth. Let’s see. Is it investors or bankers who are more likely and able to panic and run?

“This raises the specter of currency mismatch problems of the sort seen in the South Eastern Asia crisis of 1997,” worries White. “The fact that many of the corporate borrowers have rather low credit ratings also raises serious concerns, as does the maturity profile. About $340 billion of such debt matures between 2016 and 2018.”

Talk about a black box of uncertainty that’s sure to dominate the discussion at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The differences between last December and now, however, cannot be captured in any model. That should prove vexing to current members of the FOMC who’d prefer to not wander blindly onto a field littered with landmines.

As White forewarns, “Future economic setbacks tied to ultra-easy money could threaten social and political stability, particularly given the many signs of strains already evident worldwide. In short, the policy stakes are now very high.”

Oh how the Fed must long for the days of yore, when it was feasible to make policy in a domestic vacuum. Though the new reality set in over a matter of years, last August’s rude reminder on the part of People’s Bank of China abruptly ended that bygone era once and for all. The Fed can jawbone all it likes, in tiptoe style in the Minutes, or in gaudy fashion in an endless parade of FedSpeak.

But the reality of it is, if the rest of the world’s economic vulnerabilities and systemic fault lines are laid bare by this December’s hike, Fed officials’ words won’t amount to much more than trash talk, kind of like their vociferous vows to raise rates four times this year. In the end, their word proved to be as strong as, well, West Texas Oak.

via http://ift.tt/2ggjbSS Tyler Durden