Hey Boomers, Give Thanks To the Millennials We’re Like Totally Ripping Off!

How bad are baby boomers—who rightly rebelled against their parents’ repressive ways—ripping off millennials, i.e., The Next Big Thing in American Culture?

Over at The Daily Caller, Mark Tapscott does the math (and it’s not that fancy “New Math” that some of us were taught a million years ago, either):

More than half of the nation’s 25 most generous state and local public pension systems received Ds when graded by the non-profit government watchdog Truth In Accounting (TIA) on their ability to pay promised benefits to a rising flood of Baby Boomer retirees.

That’s very bad news for millennials because unfunded pension benefits often mean higher taxes for productive workers. Millennials who are now moving up career ladders and earning higher incomes make up the biggest portion of the taxable workforce now and will represent 75 percent of it by 2030 when the tail end of the Boomer generation is entering retirement.

I write not simply as the parent of one millennial and another whatever-the-next-gen-is-being-called and as a late-era baby boomer born in 1963. The public-sector pension problems discussed by Tapscott and TIA are of course dwarfed by similar dynamics undergirding the nation’s primary old-age entitlements, Medicare and Social Security. There are plenty of reasons to be pissed off about these programs, but here are four (using numbers from 2014):

Some of these numbers have changed a bit in the past couple of years, but as with the public-sector pensions, they still add up to a world of hurt for younger, poorer Americans who are getting robbed systematically to maintain older, wealthier people’s standards of living. It’s well past time to shift from Bismarckian entitlement systems in general and away from age-based welfare systems. Our society should provide a social safety net for Americans who cannot take of themselves regardless of age (we do some of this) and we should help people who are knocked down get back on their feet. This is all copacetic with a limited-government, libertarian worldview. We should not be robbing Peter, Jr. to pay Paul, Sr. and we don’t need to be (go here for ways to end generational warfare waged via federal entitlements).

And we also don’t need to break the budgets of states and municipalities via public-sector pensions, either. Earlier this year, the research arm of Reason Foundation (the nonprofit that publishes this website), helped inspire legislative action in Arizona that protects both pensioners and, more important, future taxpayers in the Grand Canyon State. It’s a model that can be widely copied and implemented, too.

From a summary of what it does:

  • Cost of living increases (COLA) will be based on the consumer price index for Phoenix and capped at 2 percent and will be pre-funded (which is currently not happening).
  • New hires will be able to choose between defined contribution plan (like a 401(k)-style savings plan) or a hybrid defined benefit plan rather than the traditional pension system.
  • New hires will have the salary cap for pension calculations reduced from $265,000 to 110,000 per year, seriously limiting incentives for finding ways to “spike” pensions with bonuses or unused vacation time to jack up what retiring employees will be receiving.
  • The eligibility age for new hires will be increased from 52.5 to 55.
  • New employees will have to pay 50 percent of plan costs if the plan doesn’t meet return assumptions.
  • Employers (that is to say, the government) will be forbidden from having “pension holidays,” where they stop paying into pension funds when they are overperforming (which then turns into a crisis when pensions later underperform).
  • The Reason Foundation calculates savings of $1.5 billion over 30 years and a reduction of retirement costs for new employees by 20 to 43 percent.
  • Financial risks borne by the taxpayers should be cut in half, and the accrual of new debt for pension liabilities should be reduced by a third.

More here.

In 2015, Reason TV laid out “3 Reasons To Cut Public Pensions NOW!”:

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Does Nikki Haley Have Any Clear Foreign Policy Views?

Who am I? Why am I here?South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has reportedly accepted President-elect Donald Trump’s offer to become the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (U.N.).

The choice is surprising, not least because Haley only reluctantly and belatedly endorsed Trump in the general election. During her State of the State address last January, she called on voters to “reject the siren call of the angriest voices” in the Republican Party, which touched off mutual criticism that led to this memorable Twitter exchange between the two:

Now that Trump is headed for the White House, he has tapped into the rising star power of Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, to be his administration’s representative in the infuriating international bureaucracy known as the U.N. In doing so, he adds some diversity to his cabinet (Haley is his first female addition to his senior leadership) and also throws a bone to establishment conservatives by adding one of their favorites.

While it makes political sense for Trump to tap Haley for a cabinet position, sending her to the U.N. is strikingly odd, considering she not only has no diplomatic experience, but has also barely made any of her foreign policy viewpoints known.

Haley has met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a few times, hoping to encourage Indian economic investment in South Carolina, but to date only six of the over 1200 companies doing business in the Palmetto State are Indian-owned. She has also vehemently opposed the Iranian nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions on the Islamic Republic, and has asked the federal government to not send Syrian refugees to her state.

As governor, Haley also waded indirectly into foreign affairs by signing the first state-wide ban on public entities from doing business with companies who engage in boycotts “of a person or an entity based in or doing business with a jurisdiction with whom South Carolina can enjoy open trade.” The move was widely interpreted as being directed against the anti-Israel Boycott Divest Sanction (BDS) movement, and similar bans have been passed in eight other states.

But that’s about it as far as clear indications of Haley’s foreign policy worldview go.

Nominating someone with no foreign policy experience to work at the U.N. may be unusual, but considering President George W. Bush nominated John Bolton for U.N. ambassador—despite the latter’s insistence that the international body shouldn’t even exist—stranger things have happened.

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Retailers Panic: 63% Of Americans Plan Not To Shop On Black Friday

The day after Thanksgiving, also known as Black Friday, is when the holiday shopping season in the United States traditionally begins and is the day when retailers (at least in the past) finally turned a profit, going from “being in the red” to “in the black.” However, in recent years, this trend has seen turned upside down, with sales on Black Friday slipping, as retailers offer pre-Thanksgiving deals ever earlier than in recent years to capture heavily discounted market share (think OPEC) and draw shoppers as “Black Friday” no longer marks the spending peak at brick-and-mortar chains.

According to National Retail Federation data, the number of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers has fallen by nearly a third in just the past three years to 102 million in 2015, from 147 million in 2012, not only as a result of bricks and mortar stores starting the selling season earlier but due to stiff competition form online vendors, most notably Amazon. Moreover, early holiday promotions and online shopping hurt in-store spending by more than 6 percent last year.

As a result, participation in this year’s Black Friday looks like it may be the worst in history: according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,639 adults showed 63%, or nearly two-thirds, did not plan to shop on Black Friday this year. Some 32% said they plan to finish about half of their holiday shopping on that day. While selling tactics are certainly a factor, one wonders how much of decline in spending is due to lack of disposable income for the tapped out US consumer?

The holiday season is expanding, and Black Friday is no longer the kickoff for the season,” said Natalie Kotlyar, who heads retail and consumer products at business advisory firm BDO Consumer, adding many start holiday shopping at Halloween, Labor Day or even Amazon’s Prime Day on July 12.

Still, retailers are not only not giving up but, as Reuters reports, are on the verge of panic, and have not only redoubled efforts this year to boost sales with familiar tactics but greater intensity, all of which assure even lower margins, but are rolling out the heavy artillery to draw in those consumers who will go out on Friday.

Wal-Mart has already said it will increase inventory by more than half this year and make deals typically reserved for Black Friday available online early Thanksgiving morning. Retail pricing and data analytics firm Market Track said an analysis of 15 top U.S. brick-and-mortar retailers and their Black Friday circular announcements online showed they were about three days earlier than last year.

In what is shaping up to be a giant race to the bottom which may result in an unprecedented, below cost inventory liquidation, retailers have just one response: “they are all trying to beat each other to the punch and starting their promotions earlier and earlier every year,” said Traci Gregorski, senior vice president, marketing at Market Track.

Ironically, the reason why so few Americans will shop this year is becase last year, discounts on popular products deepened by 30 to 40% from Black Friday prices as Christmas got closer, according to Market Track data.

So why rush when consumers now know that “must have” holiday item will only get cheaper?

Mark Cohen, a professor at Columbia Business School and the former chief executive of Sears Canada said the urgency related to Black Friday has greatly diminished. “Consumers know great deals and discounts are available throughout the year, and prices during the holiday season will only get better if they wait,” he said.

Sure enough, deals have been available for several days already on websites of retailers like Target, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Home Depot and Lowe’s Cos. Amazon.com joined with a first of its kind month-long Black Friday promotion.

Some brands are getting in on the action by offering steep discounts that reduce the appeal of waiting for Black Friday. Handbag maker Kate Spade is already offering 75 percent off some items, and off-price chain Saks Off Fifth has similar discounts on some clothing and shoes

* * *

With shopping dynamics changing by the year, and escalating discounting prevalent, retailers are in a state of chaotic flux: the year-end shopping season spanning November and December is crucial for retailers because it can account for up to 40 percent of their annual sales. The NRF, which has been overly optimistic at times in the past with its sales projections, expects holiday sales to grow 3.6 percent this year to $655.8 billion. The NRF will be disappointed yet again – about 70% of retailers expect sales to remain flat this year, according to telephone interviews with chief marketing officers at 100 U.S. retail firms, BDO Consumer said.

Still, despite the changing attitudes toward Black Fruday, there will be few strategic changes from recent years: big bricks-and-mortar players like Target and Wal-Mart will still open at 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving.

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WTI Spikes After Iraq Headlines, Unexpected Crude Inventory Draw

A crude draw and bigger than expected gasoline build overnight from API did nothing for oil prices as OPEC headlines dominate trading and DOE data confirmed API with a modest crude draw and bigger than expected Gasoline build. Oil prices are rising on Iraq headlines even as crude production rose very modestly.

API

  • Crude -1.28mm (+1mm exp)
  • Cushing -140k (-100k exp)
  • Gasoline +2.68mm (+900k exp)
  • Distillates -350k

DOE

  • Crude -1.255mm (+1mm exp)
  • Cushing -97k (+300k exp)
  • Gasoline +2.317mm (+900k exp)
  • Distillates +327k (-1mm exp)

Confirming API data, DOE reports a bigger than expected Gasoline build and modest crude draw (as crude imports dropped 845k last week). Notably Distillates are still building at a time when seasonal norms should see a draw.

As Bloomberg reports, the draw was concentrated in PADD 3, the Gulf Coast and PADD 5, the West Coast.  Excluding PADD 5 which is geographically isolated, crude builds slightly.

US Crude Production rose very modestly on the week

 

Oil prices were spiking into the DOE print as OPEC headlines hit – IRAQ WILL "SHOULDER RESPONSIBILITY" FOR SOME OF OPEC'S PLANNED PRODUCTION CUTS – PM ABADI – and extended as the crude draw helped the machines…

Notably, Macquarie sees about a $20-a-barrel difference between having an OPEC deal and not having one.

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Movie Review: Allied: New at Reason

AlliedIs there some great unslaked popular hankering for a wartime romance along the lines of Casablanca? If so, Allied is unlikely to satisfy it. The movie actually begins in Casablanca, but that’s as far as the resemblance goes. And while the picture recalls the Nazi-infested marital intrigue of Alfred Hitchcock’s 1946 Notorious, it’s probably best not to get your hopes up in that regard either. The story is initially set in French Morocco in 1942, and the production details—the dusty cafés, the chattery cocktail soirées, the roomy suits and sleek satin dresses—are period perfect. But the whole movie feels like an homage, and apart from some effective jabs of action, it plods, writes Kurt Loder.

View this article.

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Dollar Demand Hits Fevered Pitch: Yields Blow Out, Gold, Euros, Tech Stocks Sink

Happy Thanksgiving eve. This is the day of the rope for Dollar bears, as demand for the greenback soars to new highs — sending shockwaves throughout credit markets. The euro is trading with a 105 handle against the dollar, off by 0.7%.

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German bund yields are rising again, in addition to the rest of Europe.

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U.S. 10yr is officially in blowout territory, rising from 1.75% to almost 2.40% since election night. Somehow investors have ignored the deleterious affects this rise in borrowing costs will have on the economy. Instead, the financial media has been fixated on an alleged inflation that is going to rip through the economy, like a miracle, thanks to Trump’s fiscal plans. The only problem with that train of thought is said plans will be wholly dependent on cheap credit, which is getting more expensive with every passing day.

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Gold is down more than 2% — absolutely brutalized thanks to dollar strength.

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Subsequently, gold stocks are off by more than 5%. It’s truly the day of the rope for them.

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Tech stocks are resuming their post Trump win weakness.

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Markets are somewhat benign to this whirlwind in the credit markets, led by the dollar. Eventually, this will mean something — especially when the Trump administration attempts to borrow a trillion dollars for new roads and tunnels.

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American “Hope” Spikes To Highest In 18 Months After Trump Win

Inflation expectations (short- and long-term) have risen notably in the latest Uiniversity of Michigan survey data but it is “hope” that has soared. Consumer Expectations spiked most in over 3 years to 85.2 in November to 18 month highs following the election of Donald Trump as US president.

While current conditions remain well off the summer highs (107.3 vserus 110.8 in June), it is the surge in “hope” that is most notable.

Furthermore Business Expectations soared from 80 to 92 post-election.

So why the surge in optimism? One word: Trump.

According to the report, the initial reaction of consumers to Trump’s victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy. The post-election gain in the Sentiment Index was +8.2 points above the November pre-election reading, pushing the Index +6.6 points higher for the entire month above the October reading.

The post-election boost in optimism was widespread, with gains recorded among all income and age subgroups and across all regions of the country. The upsurge in favorable economic prospects is not surprising given Trump’s populist policy views, and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended. To be sure, no surge in economic expectations can long be sustained without actual improvements in economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons represent a period in which the promise of gains holds sway over actual economic conditions.

UMich however warns that “Presidential honeymoons can quickly end if they are unaccompanied by prospects that economic conditions will actually improve in the future.”

As UMich concludes, “President-elect Trump appears to appreciate the importance of his first hundred days; the key issue is whether his economic policies will resonate with the nation’s consumers. The data indicate that consumer spending will advance by 2.5% in 2017.

For now, however, all is well: after all Obama has 2 more months left under his tenure. After that all bets are off.

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New Home Sales Slide To Four Month Low After Sharp Downward Revisions

With mortgage rates soaring, it is only a matter of time before US housing is adversely impacted. And while the just released October new home sales data focused on sales of houses based on contracts signed in the month before the election, some concerns were already evident, when the number of new homes sold tumbled to 563K from a pre-revised 593K, badly missing expectations of a 593K print.

This was the weakest new home sales print going back to the 558K new homes sold in the month of June.

Furthermore, and as has traditionally happened with this volatile series, the the previous 3 months of data were all revised uniformly lower, with the September surge to 593K, now reduced to a more modest 574K.

The silver lining is that the drop in sales lifted the supply of homes available for sale to 5.2 months at the current selling rate, matching the highest since March.

An interesting observation in the latest data is that despite the recent increase (and surge, most recently) in mortgage rates, the median sales price was mostly unchanged, declining from $314K to $305K, the second highest since the summer and suggesting that future homes prices are set to drop, in a move inversely proportional to the recent surge in mortgage rates.

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Dollar Index Spikes To Crucial Resistance Level

The Dollar Index has surged almost 7% in the last two months – one of the fastest spikes in 8 years – with the post-Trump spike the most significant. Today's buying panic has sent the Dollar Index to a crucial resistance level at around 101.80 (the 61.8% retracement of the 2001-2008 collapse).

101.80 is a line in the sand…

 

And that is where USD Index stopped today..

 

Yen is the biggest loser on the day against the greenback but all the majors (and Yuan) are tumbling….

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Trump Says He’s Not Sure Torture Works but Might Use It Anyway

In an interview with The New York Times yesterday, Donald Trump retreated a bit from his campaign promise to torture terrorism suspects, attributing his second thoughts to a conversation with retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis, former head of the U.S. Central Command:

I said, “What do you think of waterboarding?” He said—I was surprised—he said, “I’ve never found it to be useful.” He said, “I’ve always found, give me a pack of cigarettes and a couple of beers and I do better with that than I do with torture.” And I was very impressed by that answer. I was surprised, because he’s known as being like the toughest guy. And when he said that, I’m not saying it changed my [mind]. Look, we have people that are chopping off heads and drowning people in steel cages, and we’re not allowed to waterboard. But I’ll tell you what, I was impressed by that answer….It’s not going to make the kind of a difference that maybe a lot of people think. If it’s so important to the American people, I would go for it. I would be guided by that. But Gen. Mattis found it to be very less important, much less important than I thought he would say.

Although Foreign Policy reporter Paul McLeary calls that “a stunning about-face,” it is not exactly a promise not to torture people, especially given the comments Trump made while running for president. “I would bring back waterboarding,” he said during a debate in February, “and I’d bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding.” At another debate the following month, Trump said he expected military officers to carry out torture on his orders, even if it would be illegal: “They’re not going to refuse me. Believe me.” Trump defended torture not just as a way to extract information but as a way to exact revenge, as he explained at a rally in Columbus last November:

Would I approve waterboarding? You bet your ass I would. In a heartbeat. I would approve more than that. It works….And if it doesn’t work, they deserve it anyway for what they do to us.

Given that rationale, Gen. Mattis’s opinion about the effectiveness of torture is not necessarily decisive for Trump, which may explain why he told the Times, “I’m not saying it changed my mind.” If “it’s important to the American people,” he said, “I would go for it.”

A 2015 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 58 percent of Americans thought the “use of torture by our government could be justified against people suspected of terrorism to try to gain information about possible attacks in our country.” A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last March found that 63 percent of Americans though torture “against suspected terrorists to obtain information about terrorism” is “often” or “sometimes” justified. Neither survey asked about revenge torture.

When a prisoner is tortured for information, he may not actually be a terrorist, may not actually have the information, or may not be willing to surrender it even under torture. When a prisoner is tortured for revenge, there is a similar problem: He may have nothing to do with the injury for which revenge is sought. That may not matter to Trump, who also has said he would kill the relatives of terrorists to defeat ISIS, although it is not clear whether the main goal of such operations would be retribution or deterrence.

Retributive torture would be not just illegal but unconstitutional, violating the Eighth Amendment’s ban on “cruel and unusual punishments.” Trump claims to have read the Constitution, but maybe he did not get that far.

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