As TPP Dies, Asian Nations Salute Their New “Free Trade” Leader: China

Over the weekend we reported that as Obama was speaking at the APEC summit in Peru, hoping to salvage his global trade legacy, the TPP, China’s President Xi Jinping officially called for the launch of the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific for “institutional guarantee of open economy”, a move many had expected would take place as China was eager to fill in the void left by the US in any trans-Pacific trade treaty.

As we previously reported, in his speech in LIma, Xi Jinping sought to position himself as a leader in global commerce, vowing to support trade. The attendees signaled “deepening economic integration and opposing trade protectionism,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday.

Then, overnight, China got a present when Trump announced in a brief video statement that his first executive order upon becoming president would be to remove the US from the TPP. That’s all Beijing needed to hear and this morning China said it hoped to conclude an Asia-wide trade pact as soon as possible, in what the WSJ dubbed was “a sign of Beijing’s intent to broaden its regional influence amid the apparent collapse of the U.S.-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership.”

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday that Asian leaders are pressing ahead with talks for the 10-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that China has backed as an alternative to the U.S.-led deal, and “hope that such negotiations can achieve early results.”

As a result, the shift in regional support has been abrupt: Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, a TPP booster, is now calling on Asian Pacific nations to boost trade by backing the China-led pact and other initiatives. “There are still other pathways to free trade in the Asia-Pacific,” Mr. Lee said this past weekend.

Other also promptly shifted their focus from a US to a China-led trade agreement: both Vietnam and Malaysia, TPP members, said they were shifting their focus to the China-backed group, according to their respective trade ministers, with Malaysia’s, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed, citing an “uncertain international economic situation.”

Most viewed the apparent shift as a victory for China… especially China “TPP has been a containment strategy by the Obama administration,” said Zou Zhengfang, an economics professor at Renmin University. “This is a good opportunity for China to be more powerful on the global stage starting with economics, and to gain a larger voice.”

What is notable is the eagerness – and ease – by most TPP member states (except Japan) to shift their allegiences from Washington to D.C. What is also notable is just how critical free trade is to most Asian countries, whose economies are heavily export-oriented, as opposed to rising calls for protectionism in much less trade-dependent (and much more debt-reliant) America and Europe. It also signals, as the WSJ writes, the unraveling of Mr. Obama’s vision to make the TPP accord an economic anchor for U.S. strategic engagement in a region being transformed by China’s growing economic might and expansionist aims.

In short, China wins by materially expanding its sphere of influence through a “free-trade” agreement, whose terms it will define from day one. Indeed, the TPP would cut or reduce some 18,000 tariffs for a group of Pacific Rim nations in the Americas, Asia and Oceania—an area accounting for 40% of the global economy. The China-led pact is less ambitious in reducing tariffs; it will likely be far more ambitious on setting terms that benefit its own companies that engage in trade. As for China’s counterparts? Since China is the dominant power, they have to accept the terms or be “nudged” out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and into the cold, protectionist world outside.

However, while most Pacific Rim countries welcome their new global trade overlord, one fervent supporter of a US-led trade pact still refuses to admit that TPP is dead, and that it will have no choice but to bow down to Beijing: Japan.

“The TPP would be meaningless without the United States,” Abe said, shortly before Trump crushed his hopes with his statement yesterday.

The WSJ adds that a spokeswoman for Japan’s Foreign Ministry said Japan still held hope the deal will be revived in some form and that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe planned to continue to try to change Mr. Trump’s thinking on its merits.

As for Trump’s plans to remake U.S. trade relationships once he takes office remains unclear. Withdrawing from the TPP may be the opening shot in a broader effort to redo other deals he has criticized as well, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“We still don’t know how far the Trump administration is going,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on China. ‘What matters is if this becomes a pattern of just disrupting trade relationships, without getting to something positive.”

Judging by the S&P which is trading at 2,200, either the answer is obvious, or the market has been completely removed from actual economic fundamentals for years (hint: the latter).

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When Art Made by an American Indian Doesn’t Count as Being ‘American Indian-Made’

Peggy Fontenot is an American Indian artist, of that there can be no doubt.

She’s a member of the Patawomeck tribe. She’s taught traditional American Indian beading classes in Native American schools and cultural centers in several states. Her work has been featured in the Smithsonian’s National Museum of the Native American.

In Oklahoma, though, she’s forbidden from calling her art what it plainly is: American Indian-made.

A state law, passed earlier this year, forbids artists from marketing their products in Oklahoma as being “American Indian-made” unless the artist is a member of a tribe recognized by the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs.

The Patawomeck tribe is recognized by the state of Virginia, but not by the federal government. Fontenot says she can trace her Native American heritage back to the 16th Century, when the tribe was one of the first to welcome settlers from Europe who landed on the east coast of Virginia. She’s been working as an artist since 1983, doing photography, beading, and making jewelry.

“I was born an American Indian. I’ve always been an American Indian,” says Fontenot.

A lawsuit filed Tuesday in U.S. District Court in Oklahoma City argues that Oklahoma’s law violates the First Amendment by restricting the speech of artists like Fontenot.

“In order to protect members of politically connected tribes from competition, Oklahoma officials are forbidding Fontenot from describing and marketing her art as what it is—American Indian art created by a Native American,” says Caleb Trotter, an attorney with the Pacific Legal Foundation, which is representing Fontenot in the case.

Here’s where things get even more strange. The state law in Oklahoma excludes tribes not recognized by the federal government’s Bureau of Indian Affairs, but the federal Indian Arts and Crafts Act says an Indian artist is any artist with membership in a tribe recognized by federal or state authorities.

So, Fontenot is an American Indian artist under federal law, but she can’t call herself that under Oklahoma state law because of a list maintained by a federal bureaucracy.

Oklahoma’s American Indian Arts and Crafts Sales Act was signed by Gov. Mary Fallin in June after sailing through the state legislature with limited opposition. State Rep. Chuck Hoskin (D-Vinita), who serves as chief of staff for the Cherokee Nation, sponsored the bill. He told The Miami News-Record that the bill was meant to protect Oklahoma-based American Indian artists from people who “falsely claim heritage in order to market themselves as a Native artist.”

Bill John Baker, chief of Cherokee Nation, said the law was “critical for us as Indian people to ensure Indian art is truly created by enrolled citizens of federally recognized tribes.” The bill does not prohibit anyone from selling their art in Oklahoma, but prohibits the marketing of the art as “Indian-made,” he wrote in April as the bill was being considered by the state legislature.

According to PLF, Oklahoma’s law could affect as many as two-thirds of all artists who are defined American Indians under federal law. The state law also violates the U.S. Constitution’s Commerce Clause by restricting the interstate American Indian art market, the lawsuit contends.

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Oil Slides: OPEC “Deal” Suddenly In Jeopardy

Earlier today, oil spiked and pushed stocks to new all time highs, after the Nigerian OPEC delegate Ibrahim Waya said that not only is “everyone on board” ahead of the November 30 Vienna cartel summit, but that he expected details of the output accord would be finalized today.

That, however, was put in question later in the morning when OPEC members said that Iran, Iraq and Indonesia were all said to have “reservations” about a proposed 4.5% production cut. Worse, according to the news, it appeared as if Iran would not be part of the exempt from production cuts group at all, contrary to the Algiers agreement, suggesting that Saudi Arabia had changed its mind once again.

And now, moments ago, oil tumbled to intrday lows on the latest batch of headlines according to which the OPEC Vienna “deal” is now suddenly in jeopardy when Bloomberg reported that the OPEC committee is said to defer the issue of Iran and Iraq – the second and third largest producers in OPEC – to the November 30 meeting altogether, confirming what the skeptics knew all along – that not only will a deal not be finalized today, but that a deal may not even happen next week in Vienna, as the rift between what Saudi Arabia is willing to “cut” to reach a deal and what it demands from its key competitors in a jockeying for market share, remains as wide as ever.

Oil promptly dropped to day’s lows on the news.

As a reminder, earlier today we showed a matrix of probabilities laying out what would happen to the price of oil should OPEC fail to reach an agreement: according to BofA, failure to agree on a production cut next week would mean oil tumbles to $40 (or lower according to Goldman) where, as a result of excess OPEC production of 34mmbpd or higher, it would remain for most of 2017 as the equilibrium in the oil market would be once again delayed indefinitely.

 

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Venezuelan President Threatens Legal Action Over JPMorgan’s “Campaign Of Terror”

Following last night's news that Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA had missed payments on several bond coupons, the company has categorically rejected the false accounts published in the media arguing that the payments were "in effect, sent to Citibank and then JPMorgan comes out with that totally false information this afternoon." Del Pino raged that Citibank deliberately delayed payments from PDVSA as part of a “campaign of terror” against the company and Venezuelan President Maduro is looking into legal action against JPMorgan over their report.

As we detailed overnight, PDVSA in October swapped $2.8 billion in bonds due in 2017 for new bonds maturing in 2020... but that bounce is now dead…

As Bloomberg reports, PDVSA has activated a 30-day grace period after not meeting the full coupon payments on its 2021, 2024 and 2035 bonds that were due last week. About $400 million was due on those bonds, while PDVSA did pay $135 million due on its 2026 debt last week, JPMorgan’s Javier Zorrilla writes, citing information from the paying agent on the bonds.

“We still believe PDVSA will make these payments during the grace period,” Zorrilla wrote in the report.

 

“However, this highlights the cash difficulties and mismanagement of PDVSA with regards to its liabilities.”

But, as Bloomberg reports this morning, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA denied that it missed coupon payments on bonds.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report published Monday that the company, which last month persuaded investors to accept a debt exchange as it struggles to fend off default, hadn’t fully paid coupons on bonds due 2021, 2024 and 2035. JPMorgan said it still expected the payments to be made within the grace period and that the delay wouldn’t amount to a default.

 

PDVSA paid the interest on its 2021 and 2024 bonds and the interest on its 2035 bonds was in the process of being paid, the company said in a statement posted by PDVSA’s chairman and Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio Del Pino on his Twitter account late Monday. The company said it categorically rejected the false accounts published in the media.

 

“It was, in effect, sent to Citibank and then JPMorgan comes out with that totally false information this afternoon, which became a trending topic on Twitter,” Del Pino said on late-night television talk show Zurda Conducta.

 

Del Pino suggested that bondholders should call Citigroup Inc. and complain about the late payment.

 

Citibank deliberately delayed payments from PDVSA as part of a “campaign of terror” against the company, he said.

Furthermore, Reuters reports that:

  • VENEZUELA PRESIDENT MADURO SAYS PDVSA HAD DEPOSITED MONEY FOR BOND PAYMENT IN CITIBANK ON TIME
  • VENEZUELA PRESIDENT MADURO SAYS HAS ASKED PDVSA PRESIDENT TO LOOK INTO POTENTIAL LEGAL ACTION AGAINST JPMORGAN OVER BOND REPORT
  • VENEZUELA PRESIDENT SAYS U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT SUPPORTING CAMPAIGN AGAINST PDVSA

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Venezuelan President Threatens Legal Action Over JPMorgan’s “Campaign Of Terror”

Following last night's news that Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA had missed payments on several bond coupons, the company has categorically rejected the false accounts published in the media arguing that the payments were "in effect, sent to Citibank and then JPMorgan comes out with that totally false information this afternoon." Del Pino raged that Citibank deliberately delayed payments from PDVSA as part of a “campaign of terror” against the company and Venezuelan President Maduro is looking into legal action against JPMorgan over their report.

As we detailed overnight, PDVSA in October swapped $2.8 billion in bonds due in 2017 for new bonds maturing in 2020... but that bounce is now dead…

As Bloomberg reports, PDVSA has activated a 30-day grace period after not meeting the full coupon payments on its 2021, 2024 and 2035 bonds that were due last week. About $400 million was due on those bonds, while PDVSA did pay $135 million due on its 2026 debt last week, JPMorgan’s Javier Zorrilla writes, citing information from the paying agent on the bonds.

“We still believe PDVSA will make these payments during the grace period,” Zorrilla wrote in the report.

 

“However, this highlights the cash difficulties and mismanagement of PDVSA with regards to its liabilities.”

But, as Bloomberg reports this morning, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA denied that it missed coupon payments on bonds.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report published Monday that the company, which last month persuaded investors to accept a debt exchange as it struggles to fend off default, hadn’t fully paid coupons on bonds due 2021, 2024 and 2035. JPMorgan said it still expected the payments to be made within the grace period and that the delay wouldn’t amount to a default.

 

PDVSA paid the interest on its 2021 and 2024 bonds and the interest on its 2035 bonds was in the process of being paid, the company said in a statement posted by PDVSA’s chairman and Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio Del Pino on his Twitter account late Monday. The company said it categorically rejected the false accounts published in the media.

 

“It was, in effect, sent to Citibank and then JPMorgan comes out with that totally false information this afternoon, which became a trending topic on Twitter,” Del Pino said on late-night television talk show Zurda Conducta.

 

Del Pino suggested that bondholders should call Citigroup Inc. and complain about the late payment.

 

Citibank deliberately delayed payments from PDVSA as part of a “campaign of terror” against the company, he said.

Furthermore, Reuters reports that:

  • VENEZUELA PRESIDENT MADURO SAYS PDVSA HAD DEPOSITED MONEY FOR BOND PAYMENT IN CITIBANK ON TIME
  • VENEZUELA PRESIDENT MADURO SAYS HAS ASKED PDVSA PRESIDENT TO LOOK INTO POTENTIAL LEGAL ACTION AGAINST JPMORGAN OVER BOND REPORT
  • VENEZUELA PRESIDENT SAYS U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT SUPPORTING CAMPAIGN AGAINST PDVSA

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6 Secretary of State Appointments Trump Could Make That Wouldn’t Suck

A number of names have been bandied around as potential Secretary of State nominees for Donald Trump: John Bolton, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, even Mitt Romney. None of these selections would be especially surprising but neither do they represent any kind of break from “the establishment” against which many Trump voters voted.

Finding a person who doesn’t accept status-quo assumptions about foreign policy and America’s supposedly indispensable place in the world—or even one who is just willing to take a fresh look at U.S. relations with the rest of the globe—isn’t easy. Decades of bipartisan foreign policy have produced generally pro-intervention analysts, activists, and politicians.

Some Ron Paul supporters who see a spark of noninterventionism in Trump have launched a petition for Trump to nominate the former Republican congressman as secretary of state. A Change.org petition notes the Washington Post‘s Jennifer Rubin was concerned about such a possibility while Paul called it an “unlikely scenario.” At the age of 83, it’s difficult to see Paul as a cabinet member under any circumstances. That said, Paul definitely agrees with Trump’s election-night refrain about wanting the United States to have friendly relations with any country willing to have friendly relations with the U.S. And considering one underlying principle of a Paul State Department would be not inserting the U.S. into every imaginable conflict (diplomatic or otherwise) around the world, Secretary Paul not traveling overseas all the time would be a benefit.

Paul would make an intriguing, establishment-challenging and, most importantly, non-interventionist choice for secretary of state. He would be a great selection. There is also zero chance of that happening. Here are other selections Trump could make that would be pretty good:

Bob Corker

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has emerged as a potent Republican critic of the Trump transition. Last week he said he could find enough votes to block a Bolton nomination, and also criticized the idea that Giuliani might be nominated. “Giuliani is a great friend of the president-elect,” Paul acknowledged. “Maybe there could be another position in the cabinet that wouldn’t be putting him in a place where he is at odds with the president’s vision on foreign policy.”

The Republican majority in the Senate has been whittled down from 54 to 51 or 52 (a December 10 run-off will determine whether Louisiana sends a Democrat or Republican to the Senate to replace David Vitter), so Paul does not need to find all that many votes to block any Trump nomination, especially if it’s one that finds little or no support among Democrats.

Paul suggested Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) as a potential secretary of state nomination for Trump, saying he would “sail through” with more than a dozen Democrats also supporting him. “I would say, while not being libertarian, [Corker] is more of a reasonable, realist kind of person,” Paul told Reason last week. “I think he would be less likely to say tomorrow we need to drop bombs on Iran.”

For Paul, any potential secretary of state nominee that “didn’t learn the lesson of the war in Iraq” would not earn his support. Corker has compared the U.S. invasion of Iraq to beating a hornet’s nest with a big stick. He was also one of three Republican senators in the Foreign Relations Committee to vote in favor of the U.S.-Russia strategic arms reduction treaty (START) and one of 13 Republicans who voted in favor of it on the Senate floor. Corker was also skeptical of the 2009 Afghan troop surge. “I have no idea what it is, other than sending additional troops,” Corker told AFP. “I hope we dig a lot deeper.”

Corker has said he was “in the mix” for a possible Trump administration role.

James Webb

Former Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) briefly ran for the Democratic nomination for president in the 2016 election cycle, dropping out less than four months after announcing his run. “Some people say I am a Republican who became a Democrat, or that I often sound like a Republican in a room full of Democrats or a Democrat in a room full of Republicans,” Webb said at the time. “I fully accept that my views on many issues are not compatible with the power structure and the nominating base of the Democratic Party.”

In retrospect, Webb, who appealed to the kind of swing voter in the Rust Belt that tipped the election to Donald Trump, may have been the strongest announced candidate Democrats had. On foreign policy, too, Webb provided an alternative that was less hawkish than Clinton, whose enthusiasm for war and intervention surely turned off some voters in the Midwest and beyond.

Webb, as Jim Henley noted in the November 2008 issue of Reason, was one of the “forthright anti-war candidates” Democrats finally decided to run in 2006 to take “real advantage of public dismay with the war.” But Democrats, as Henley noted, were never fully comfortable with such positions, even when they exploited them. The success of 2006, Henley noted, “came in the face of the usual intraparty counsel to avoid losing ‘credibility on national security’.”

Webb’s failure to launch in the presidential election was in part a symptom of the broader death of authentically anti-war candidates over the past several decades, even in the face of continued military failures in the 21st century. Webb has been a proponent of Congress reasserting its role in decisions about making war and was a critic of the U.S. war in Iraq and the 2011 intervention in Libya.

John Duncan

Rep. John Duncan (R-Tenn.) has served in Congress since 1988. While he voted in favor of the Gulf War resolution in 1991, he subsequently voted against the Iraq War in 2002, against bills to fund the war in Iraq, and in favor of setting a withdrawal date in 2007. He also voted against a bill to fund the Afghanistan war in 2010. Duncan was one of 10 members of Congress to try to sue President Obama over the intervention in Libya, for which the president received no Congressional authorization. Howard Phillips, the founder of what would become the Constitution party, called Duncan “one of the unsung heroes of Constitutional conservatism.”

He was one of only six Republican members of Congress to vote against the 2002 authorization of the use of military force in Iraq. At the time, he said he thought the vote could end his political career, as everyone in his very conservative Republican district was telling him to vote in favor of the Iraq war.

He had learned his lesson from his support of the First Gulf War, saying he realized in the aftermath of the war that the threat had been “greatly exaggerated.” Duncan also noted the role of partisan politics in manufacturing support for poor U.S. foreign policy. “Eighty percent of the House Republicans voted against the bombings in Bosnia, Kosovo, and all that,” he told the American Conservative in 2005. “I’m absolutely convinced that if Gore or Clinton had been in the White House, 80 percent of the Republicans would have been against [the Iraq War too].” Such an understanding of the blinding nature of partisanship when it comes to U.S. foreign policy would be a huge asset in a Trump cabinet.

T.J. Rodgers

Trump and his transition team would be remiss if they only considered politicians for roles in the cabinet. Even the State Department could benefit from being guided by someone with extensive experience in the private sector. T.J. Rodgers, the founder of Cypress Semiconductor (and a supporter of Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes this website), is one such candidate.

Throughout his career, Rodgers has been an unabashed defender of free-market capitalism. Given how much the freeing of markets have improved living standards and the quality of lives around the world and how only free markets can actually sustain sustainable development, the world and the United States would benefit from a secretary of state who was an unabashed advocate of real capitalism. Such advocates are not as common, or outspoken, in an American business world increasingly intermingling with government, but Rodgers has repeatedly warned against cronyism here and abroad. Appointing someone who understands this as secretary of state could go along way in restoring justified optimism among Americans and around the world.

Tulsi Gabbard

Yesterday Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) met with President-elect Trump, and is reportedly being considered for an appointment at State, Defense, or the United Nations. Gabbard, a combat veteran who volunteered for a 12-month tour of duty in Iraq while serving in the Hawaii Army National Guard, would make an excellent choice for secretary of state, one that would send a clear and unequivocal message about Trump’s interest in breaking from the deadly bipartisan foreign policy status quo.

After her meeting with Trump, she said she “felt it important to take the opportunity to meet with the president-elect now before the drumbeats of war that neocons have been beating drag us into an escalation of the war to overthrow the Syrian government—a war which has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives and forced millions of refugees to flee their homes in search of safety for themselves and their families.”

Gabbard has been an opponent of U.S. intervention in Syria since coming to Congress in 2013, arguing that “intervention in Syria goes against America’s national security, international credibility, economic interest, and moral center.”

While she served in Iraq, she has said she was against the war, and has also called for an end to the Afghanistan war “as soon as possible,” saying the U.S. should never have been in those places to begin with. She is also among a growing faction of members of Congress known as “Saudi skeptics,” voting against U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and co-sponsored the House version of Rand Paul’s legislation to stop arms sales to Saudi Arabia. In 2014, she backed Michigan Republican Rep. Justin Amash’s amendment to defund the National Security Agency over its warrantless surveillance program.

Gabbard stepped down as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee in February so that she could endorse Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primaries, after complaining that the DNC had not scheduled enough primary debates.

Wesley Clark

The former Democratic candidate for president earned credibility among non-interventionists for his opposition to the war in Iraq, but it wasn’t enough to help him win the Democratic nomination in 2004. Clark has been skeptical about turning to military force first in U.S. foreign policy but also accepts that the U.S. is and ought to remain in a position of global leadership.

“You cannot win the war on terror by military force,” Clark told Democracy Now‘s Amy Goodman in 2007. “It is first and foremost a battle of ideas. It is secondly a law enforcement effort and a cooperative effort among nations. And only as a last resort do you use military force.”

“The truth about the Middle East is, had there been no oil there, it would be like Africa. Nobody is threatening to intervene in Africa,” Clark noted to Goodman. “The problem is the opposite. We keep asking for people to intervene and stop it. There’s no question that the presence of petroleum throughout the region has sparked great power involvement.”

In his 2014 book Don’t Wait for the Next War: A Strategy for American Growth and Global Leadership, Clark lays out what Walter Russell Mead called in the Wall Street Journal a Hamiltonian vision for U.S. foreign policy, where “a strong federal government closely linked to powerful firms in the private sector will promote economic development at home and ensure national security abroad.” In this approach, the U.S. would keep its ability to project power globally but try to avoid conflict when possible.

The problem there is that the ability to project the power sometimes becomes enough to drive policymakers into conflicts. The intervention in Libya, which Clark criticized, could be seen through this framework. Many of the immediate costs of intervening were already baked in to the daily cost of maintaining the U.S. military and its ability to project power.

In a 2011 op-ed in the Washington Post, Clark warned that the American intervention that was then starting in Libya did not meet standards that ought to be met for U.S. interventions. Those include a clear national interest at stake, where the result would be deemed worth the cost of intervention; knowing the purpose of the intervention and how military action would achieve it; determining the political end game before the intervention begins; building public support, obtaining diplomatic and legal authority, and bringing allies into the process; avoiding U.S. and civilian casualties; and getting it over with quickly. Clark is an advocate of continued U.S. intervention in Syria, although it would not appear to meet all of the standards he laid out. Last year, he wrote that the idea of the U.S. and its allies creating “safe zones” for refugees “offers the best, lowest cost and the surest means of regaining some stability in the region.”

Clark is no non-interventionist, but he is certainly a skeptic of intervention and an advocate for caution, which would make him a useful, if unavoidably flawed, member of a Trump cabinet.

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“Emotionally F**king Pissed” Media Blows Embargo And Lashes Out At Trump – “F*ck Him”

Just yesterday Trump called a summit of all the major mainstream media executives and anchors at Trump Tower.  While many expected the meeting to be an oppotunity to ask questions of the president-elect, the media elites apparently got the surprise of their lives when Trump spent the majority of the meeting attacking they’re blatant biased coverage the 2016 presidential elections referring to the room as a bunch of “dishonest, deceitful liars.”  One participant in the meeting described it as af—ing firing squad” after “Trump started with Jeff Zucker and said “I hate your network, everyone at CNN is a liar and you should be ashamed….”  We suspect that was rather less cordial than they expected.

Despite the conversation being completely off the record, many of the “emotionally fucking pissed” media anchors have decided to blow their embargoes and lash out at Trump.  According to one source interviewed by the New Yorker, the meeting at Trump Tower was “fucking outrageous.”  The same source also questioned how he could remain impartial after the meeting saying “How can this not influence coverage?”…yes, because coverage was so impartial up until yesterday.

Another participant at the meeting said that Trump’s behavior was “totally inappropriate” and “fucking outrageous.” The television people thought that they were being summoned to ask questions; Trump has not held a press conference since late July. Instead, they were subjected to a stream of insults and complaints—and not everyone absorbed it with pleasure.

 

“I have to tell you, I am emotionally fucking pissed,” another participant said. “How can this not influence coverage? I am being totally honest with you. Toward the end of the campaign, it got to a point where I thought that the coverage was all about [Trump’s] flaws and problems. And that’s legit. But, I thought, O.K., let’s give them the benefit of the doubt. After the meeting today, though—and I am being human with you here—I think, Fuck him! I know I am being emotional about it. And I know I will get over it in a couple of days after Thanksgiving. But I really am offended. This was unprecedented. Outrageous!”

 

Participants said that Trump did not raise his voice, but that he went on steadily at the start of the meeting about how he had been treated poorly. “It was all so Trump,” one said. “He is like this all the time. He’ll freeze you out and then be nice and humble and sort of want you to like him.”

 

“But he truly doesn’t seem to understand the First Amendment,” the source continued. “He doesn’t. He thinks we are supposed to say what he says and that’s it.”

And, as the eloquent Kellyanne Conway pointed out in her opening response last night on the Megyn Kelly show, negative reactions, like the one above, went a long way toward helping Trump win the presidency.

“Fairness is actually not having presumptive negativity written about you and always assuming the worst about you.  And I think that Donald Trump has faced an unprecedented avalanche of critical coverage when he was running and frankly i think, in part, he owes his victory to that.  There was a backlash against the elites, a backlash against those who were telling Americans what is important to them.”

 

What are the chances that the mainstream media figures out before 2020 that by relentlessly attacking Trump they’re actually helping him?

* * *

Here is our full coverage of the Trump “media summit” that was described by some as a “f—ing firing squad”:

Earlier today we reported that in a “summit” organized by Trump’s campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, executives and anchors from the major US media outlets, including CNN president Jeff Zucker, ABC News president James Goldston, Fox News co-presidents Bill Shine and Jack Abernethy, and NBC News president Deborah Turness, visited Donald Trump at his Trump Tower penthouse for an off the record meeting.

Courtesy of the Post, we have a complete list of the participants at the Trump media meeting: the hour-long powwow included top execs from network and cable news channels. Among the attendees were NBC’s Deborah Turness, Lester Holt and Chuck Todd, ABC’s James Goldston, George Stephanopoulos, David Muir and Martha Raddatz, CBS’ Norah O’Donnell John Dickerson, Charlie Rose, Christopher Isham and Gayle King, Fox News’ Bill Shine, Jack Abernethy, Jay Wallace, Suzanne Scott, MSNBC’s Phil Griffin and CNN’s Jeff Zucker and Erin Burnett.

The contents of what was discussed were initially unclear.

Wolf Blitzer

Now, according to the Post and Politico, we learn that the President-elect “exploded at media bigs in an off-the-record Trump Tower powow on Monday.”

It was like a f—ing firing squad,” one source told the Post.

According to the Post’s recound of the conversation, “Trump started with Jeff Zucker and said I hate your network, everyone at CNN is a liar and you should be ashamed….”


Jeff Zucker (left)

“The meeting was a total disaster. The TV execs and anchors went in there thinking they would be discussing the access they would get to the Trump administration, but instead they got a Trump-style dressing down,” the source added. A second source confirmed the encounter.

The Post adds that “the meeting took place in a big board room and there were about 30 or 40 people, including the big news anchors from all the networks…”

“Trump kept saying, ‘We’re in a room of liars, the deceitful dishonest media who got it all wrong. He addressed everyone in the room calling the media dishonest, deceitful liars. He called out Jeff Zucker by name and said everyone at CNN was a liar, and CNN was network of liars.

“Trump didn’t say Katy Tur by name, but talked about an NBC female correspondent who got it wrong, then he referred to a horrible network correspondent who cried when Hillary lost who hosted a debate – which was Martha Raddatz who was also in the room.

“Gayle did not stand up, but asked some question, ‘How do you propose we the media work with you?’ Chuck Todd asked some pretty pointed questions. David Muir asked how are you going to cope living in DC while your family is in NYC? It was a horrible meeting.”

Politico adds further details, according to which “Trump complained about photos of himself that NBC used that he found unflattering, the source said. Trump turned to NBC News President Deborah Turness at one point, the source said, and told her the network won’t run a nice picture of him, instead choosing “this picture of me,” as he made a face with a double chin. Turness replied that they had a “very nice” picture of him on their website at the moment.”

Amusingly, since the meeting was off the record, meaning the participants agreed not to talk about the substance of the conversations, it means they will most likely be unable to confirm or deny the Post’s report.

Politco’s recollection of events was slightly less dramatic:

The New York Post on Monday afternoon portrayed a much more heated meeting, including a quote from one source who said the encounter was “like a f–ing firing squad.” The Post also said Trump called CNN journalists “liars” and that they should be “ashamed.” The source who spoke with POLITICO characterized the meeting as less intense, and said the discussion included Trump expressing the possibility of a “reset” of the tumultuous relationship between the president-elect and the media and that all he wants is “fairness.”

 

Asked how he defines fairness by a network executive, Trump said simply, “The truth.” But aside from the few moments of contention in the beginning, the source said the meeting was largely substantive.

Politico also adds that Trump, flanked by chief of staff Reince Priebus and campaign manager Kellyanne Conway at the table, also expressed annoyance at the protective press pool and the complaints over him ditching the press when he went out to dinner last week with his family after reporters were advised he was in for the night. But Priebus assured the attendees that the protective press pool will be taken care of and it would all work out.

Other attendees at the meeting from Trump’s team included chief strategist Stephen Bannon, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, spokesman Jason Miller, and Republican National Committee chief strategist and communications director Sean Spicer.

Asked for comment, Miller referred POLITICO to Conway’s comments to reporters after the meeting, in which she echoed the sentiments made in the meeting about turning over a new leaf with the media.

 

“There was no need to mend fences,” Conway said. “It was very cordial, very genial. But it was very candid and very honest. From my own perspective, it’s great to hit the reset button.”

 

Conway later on Monday hit back at the New York Post report. “He did not explode in anger,” she said.

While one can have a subjective interpretuation of the nuances at the meating, one thing was clear: Trump’s attempt at a ‘reset’ will be frowned at by the media which is not used to this kind of treatment, even if the “kindler, gentler” version of events as reported by Politico is accurate.

It also means that what has already been a conventional war between the various US media organizations and Trump, is likely about to go nuclear.

via http://ift.tt/2fnMm8K Tyler Durden

This guy got destroyed by the system

My friend Richard got destroyed by the system.

As a financial advisor in Sacramento, California, he spent years building a thriving firm and has even landed a few celebrity clients.

Richard did well for himself. Successful. Married. Wonderful kids. Financially secure.

But back in 2008 things started to turn sour.

His wife left him and took the kids, along with half of everything else.

The divorce forced the liquidation of many of their assets, including a substantial investment portfolio he had built up.

Richard didn’t want to sell; by the time the divorce was being fought, it was 2009 and the stock market had crashed.

But Richard had no choice. They liquidated and suffered major losses.

Most painfully, since Richard’s business was so successful, the judge ordered him to pay alimony of nearly $20,000 per month.

It didn’t matter that, practically overnight, most of his new business had dried up due to the Great Recession.

Thus began the long indentured servitude known as alimony.

The idea behind alimony is to make sure that the ex-spouse can maintain a comfortable standard of living while s/he gets rebuilds a life and financial base.

It shouldn’t be abused as a lottery ticket.

In Richard’s case, it’s been 7+ long years and nearly $2 million in alimony paid. But the payments never stop.

Even though the kids are now grown and out of the house, his ex-wife has zero incentive to go out and find a job to support herself.

Why would she bother working hard when she can do nothing and collect $20k from her ex-husband?

Yet due to the length of time they were married, and California’s ridiculous legal code, there’s no end in sight for Richard’s alimony payments.

So Richard has the government taking 50% (between federal and state income tax) from his left pocket, and his wife taking nearly a quarter of a million dollars per year out of his right pocket.

Naturally if he stops paying either one of them he’ll face the long arm of the law.

Speaking of the law, the Dodd-Frank Act that was passed several years ago to reform the financial system totally crippled his business.

It’s one of the costliest and most painful regulations ever created for financial services businesses, and Richard constantly has regulators breathing down his neck.

It’s amazing. Despite taking half of his income, the government makes it increasingly difficult for Richard to produce.

Richard turned 50 this year, and he was miserable.

Instead of slowing down and enjoying life, he’d been working harder than ever to earn less than ever, with very little time left over to build a personal life for himself.

His problems also started to manifest in other ways. He’d gained weight, and was drinking more, and I doubt he’d gone on a date since 2013.

Sadly, Richard is not an isolated case. There are countless people across the country who have been destroyed by the system.

He came to me for help earlier this year, which I was more than happy to extend.

Initially we established a new financial advisory business for Richard in a more favorable jurisdiction.

That jurisdiction was Puerto Rico.

Under Puerto Rico’s generous incentive laws, Richard’s new firm is able to provide financial services for worldwide clients without the pain of onshore US regulations.

It’s made things much easier for him so that he can focus on servicing his clients’ needs and winning new business, as opposed to filling out forms and pleasuring regulators.

The new firm is growing rapidly as a result. And best of all, his Puerto Rico profits are taxed at just 4%, instead of the 50% he was paying in California.

Richard still has the California business. And to reduce the taxes there, my advisors set him up with something called a “Captive Insurance Company”.

This one is a real goldmine.

It’s completely normal for businesses to have certain insurance expenses, for example fire insurance, earthquake coverage, liability, etc.

These are all legitimate, tax-deductible business expenses.

A “Captive Insurance Company” is a separate business that you might own or control, which basically acts as your own insurance company.

So instead of paying insurance premiums to State Farm or All State, you’re paying premiums to your own insurance company.

This is completely and totally legal, and there’s an entire section on this in the US Tax Code.

Like any insurance premium, the premiums you pay to your own insurance company are tax deductible to your original business.

So Richard’s California-based financial advisory firm is able to deduct the insurance premiums that it pays to Richard’s captive insurance company.

Under US law, captive insurance companies qualify for tax-free status as long as their net premiums are below $2.2 million per year.

Richard’s California-based financial advisory firm is now paying his captive insurance company for several new, completely legitimate insurance policies.

For example, his captive company insures his financial advisory firm against risks like cybersecurity and civil unrest.

It makes sense for any business to insure against these risks.

The California company’s profit is now lower, which means that it pays less tax.

Meanwhile, the insurance premiums paid to his captive insurance company are subject to ZERO tax.

So he’s paying less federal and state tax from the California business, 4% tax in Puerto Rico, and 0% tax on his insurance company’s profits.

These are just two of the steps that we’ve taken. But the end result is pretty clear.

Richard is less-regulated, so he’s able to focus more on building and growing his business.

He’s earning more, and he’s able to keep more of what he earns.

Most of all he’s happier. He’s laid off on the booze, started hitting the gym, traveling more, and actually having a personal life.

It’s been a huge transformation.

All that it took to completely turn his life around were the proper tools to solve his problems, the knowledge about how to use them, and willingness to execute.

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This guy got destroyed by the system

My friend Richard got destroyed by the system.

As a financial advisor in Sacramento, California, he spent years building a thriving firm and has even landed a few celebrity clients.

Richard did well for himself. Successful. Married. Wonderful kids. Financially secure.

But back in 2008 things started to turn sour.

His wife left him and took the kids, along with half of everything else.

The divorce forced the liquidation of many of their assets, including a substantial investment portfolio he had built up.

Richard didn’t want to sell; by the time the divorce was being fought, it was 2009 and the stock market had crashed.

But Richard had no choice. They liquidated and suffered major losses.

Most painfully, since Richard’s business was so successful, the judge ordered him to pay alimony of nearly $20,000 per month.

It didn’t matter that, practically overnight, most of his new business had dried up due to the Great Recession.

Thus began the long indentured servitude known as alimony.

The idea behind alimony is to make sure that the ex-spouse can maintain a comfortable standard of living while s/he gets rebuilds a life and financial base.

It shouldn’t be abused as a lottery ticket.

In Richard’s case, it’s been 7+ long years and nearly $2 million in alimony paid. But the payments never stop.

Even though the kids are now grown and out of the house, his ex-wife has zero incentive to go out and find a job to support herself.

Why would she bother working hard when she can do nothing and collect $20k from her ex-husband?

Yet due to the length of time they were married, and California’s ridiculous legal code, there’s no end in sight for Richard’s alimony payments.

So Richard has the government taking 50% (between federal and state income tax) from his left pocket, and his wife taking nearly a quarter of a million dollars per year out of his right pocket.

Naturally if he stops paying either one of them he’ll face the long arm of the law.

Speaking of the law, the Dodd-Frank Act that was passed several years ago to reform the financial system totally crippled his business.

It’s one of the costliest and most painful regulations ever created for financial services businesses, and Richard constantly has regulators breathing down his neck.

It’s amazing. Despite taking half of his income, the government makes it increasingly difficult for Richard to produce.

Richard turned 50 this year, and he was miserable.

Instead of slowing down and enjoying life, he’d been working harder than ever to earn less than ever, with very little time left over to build a personal life for himself.

His problems also started to manifest in other ways. He’d gained weight, and was drinking more, and I doubt he’d gone on a date since 2013.

Sadly, Richard is not an isolated case. There are countless people across the country who have been destroyed by the system.

He came to me for help earlier this year, which I was more than happy to extend.

Initially we established a new financial advisory business for Richard in a more favorable jurisdiction.

That jurisdiction was Puerto Rico.

Under Puerto Rico’s generous incentive laws, Richard’s new firm is able to provide financial services for worldwide clients without the pain of onshore US regulations.

It’s made things much easier for him so that he can focus on servicing his clients’ needs and winning new business, as opposed to filling out forms and pleasuring regulators.

The new firm is growing rapidly as a result. And best of all, his Puerto Rico profits are taxed at just 4%, instead of the 50% he was paying in California.

Richard still has the California business. And to reduce the taxes there, my advisors set him up with something called a “Captive Insurance Company”.

This one is a real goldmine.

It’s completely normal for businesses to have certain insurance expenses, for example fire insurance, earthquake coverage, liability, etc.

These are all legitimate, tax-deductible business expenses.

A “Captive Insurance Company” is a separate business that you might own or control, which basically acts as your own insurance company.

So instead of paying insurance premiums to State Farm or All State, you’re paying premiums to your own insurance company.

This is completely and totally legal, and there’s an entire section on this in the US Tax Code.

Like any insurance premium, the premiums you pay to your own insurance company are tax deductible to your original business.

So Richard’s California-based financial advisory firm is able to deduct the insurance premiums that it pays to Richard’s captive insurance company.

Under US law, captive insurance companies qualify for tax-free status as long as their net premiums are below $2.2 million per year.

Richard’s California-based financial advisory firm is now paying his captive insurance company for several new, completely legitimate insurance policies.

For example, his captive company insures his financial advisory firm against risks like cybersecurity and civil unrest.

It makes sense for any business to insure against these risks.

The California company’s profit is now lower, which means that it pays less tax.

Meanwhile, the insurance premiums paid to his captive insurance company are subject to ZERO tax.

So he’s paying less federal and state tax from the California business, 4% tax in Puerto Rico, and 0% tax on his insurance company’s profits.

These are just two of the steps that we’ve taken. But the end result is pretty clear.

Richard is less-regulated, so he’s able to focus more on building and growing his business.

He’s earning more, and he’s able to keep more of what he earns.

Most of all he’s happier. He’s laid off on the booze, started hitting the gym, traveling more, and actually having a personal life.

It’s been a huge transformation.

All that it took to completely turn his life around were the proper tools to solve his problems, the knowledge about how to use them, and willingness to execute.

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via IFTTT

6 Secretary of State Appointments Trump Could Make That Wouldn’t Suck

A number of names have been bandied around as potential Secretary of State nominees for Donald Trump: John Bolton, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, even Mitt Romney. None of these selections would be especially surprising but neither do they represent any kind of break from “the establishment” against which many Trump voters voted.

Finding a person who doesn’t accept status-quo assumptions about foreign policy and America’s supposedly indispensable place in the world—or even one who is just willing to take a fresh look at U.S. relations with the rest of the globe—isn’t easy. Decades of bipartisan foreign policy have produced generally pro-intervention analysts, activists, and politicians.

Some Ron Paul supporters who see a spark of noninterventionism in Trump have launched a petition for Trump to nominate the former Republican congressman as secretary of state. A Change.org petition notes the Washington Post‘s Jennifer Rubin was concerned about such a possibility while Paul called it an “unlikely scenario.” At the age of 83, it’s difficult to see Paul as a cabinet member under any circumstances. That said, Paul definitely agrees with Trump’s election-night refrain about wanting the United States to have friendly relations with any country willing to have friendly relations with the U.S. And considering one underlying principle of a Paul State Department would be not inserting the U.S. into every imaginable conflict (diplomatic or otherwise) around the world, Secretary Paul not traveling overseas all the time would be a benefit.

Paul would make an intriguing, establishment-challenging and, most importantly, non-interventionist choice for secretary of state. He would be a great selection. There is also zero chance of that happening. Here are other selections Trump could make that would be pretty good:

Bob Corker

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has emerged as a potent Republican critic of the Trump transition. Last week he said he could find enough votes to block a Bolton nomination, and also criticized the idea that Giuliani might be nominated. “Giuliani is a great friend of the president-elect,” Paul acknowledged. “Maybe there could be another position in the cabinet that wouldn’t be putting him in a place where he is at odds with the president’s vision on foreign policy.”

The Republican majority in the Senate has been whittled down from 54 to 51 or 52 (a December 10 run-off will determine whether Louisiana sends a Democrat or Republican to the Senate to replace David Vitter), so Paul does not need to find all that many votes to block any Trump nomination, especially if it’s one that finds little or no support among Democrats.

Paul suggested Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) as a potential secretary of state nomination for Trump, saying he would “sail through” with more than a dozen Democrats also supporting him. “I would say, while not being libertarian, [Corker] is more of a reasonable, realist kind of person,” Paul told Reason last week. “I think he would be less likely to say tomorrow we need to drop bombs on Iran.”

For Paul, any potential secretary of state nominee that “didn’t learn the lesson of the war in Iraq” would not earn his support. Corker has compared the U.S. invasion of Iraq to beating a hornet’s nest with a big stick. He was also one of three Republican senators in the Foreign Relations Committee to vote in favor of the U.S.-Russia strategic arms reduction treaty (START) and one of 13 Republicans who voted in favor of it on the Senate floor. Corker was also skeptical of the 2009 Afghan troop surge. “I have no idea what it is, other than sending additional troops,” Corker told AFP. “I hope we dig a lot deeper.”

Corker has said he was “in the mix” for a possible Trump administration role.

James Webb

Former Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) briefly ran for the Democratic nomination for president in the 2016 election cycle, dropping out less than four months after announcing his run. “Some people say I am a Republican who became a Democrat, or that I often sound like a Republican in a room full of Democrats or a Democrat in a room full of Republicans,” Webb said at the time. “I fully accept that my views on many issues are not compatible with the power structure and the nominating base of the Democratic Party.”

In retrospect, Webb, who appealed to the kind of swing voter in the Rust Belt that tipped the election to Donald Trump, may have been the strongest announced candidate Democrats had. On foreign policy, too, Webb provided an alternative that was less hawkish than Clinton, whose enthusiasm for war and intervention surely turned off some voters in the Midwest and beyond.

Webb, as Jim Henley noted in the November 2008 issue of Reason, was one of the “forthright anti-war candidates” Democrats finally decided to run in 2006 to take “real advantage of public dismay with the war.” But Democrats, as Henley noted, were never fully comfortable with such positions, even when they exploited them. The success of 2006, Henley noted, “came in the face of the usual intraparty counsel to avoid losing ‘credibility on national security’.”

Webb’s failure to launch in the presidential election was in part a symptom of the broader death of authentically anti-war candidates over the past several decades, even in the face of continued military failures in the 21st century. Webb has been a proponent of Congress reasserting its role in decisions about making war and was a critic of the U.S. war in Iraq and the 2011 intervention in Libya.

John Duncan

Rep. John Duncan (R-Tenn.) has served in Congress since 1988. While he voted in favor of the Gulf War resolution in 1991, he subsequently voted against the Iraq War in 2002, against bills to fund the war in Iraq, and in favor of setting a withdrawal date in 2007. He also voted against a bill to fund the Afghanistan war in 2010. Duncan was one of 10 members of Congress to try to sue President Obama over the intervention in Libya, for which the president received no Congressional authorization. Howard Phillips, the founder of what would become the Constitution party, called Duncan “one of the unsung heroes of Constitutional conservatism.”

He was one of only six Republican members of Congress to vote against the 2002 authorization of the use of military force in Iraq. At the time, he said he thought the vote could end his political career, as everyone in his very conservative Republican district was telling him to vote in favor of the Iraq war.

He had learned his lesson from his support of the First Gulf War, saying he realized in the aftermath of the war that the threat had been “greatly exaggerated.” Duncan also noted the role of partisan politics in manufacturing support for poor U.S. foreign policy. “Eighty percent of the House Republicans voted against the bombings in Bosnia, Kosovo, and all that,” he told the American Conservative in 2005. “I’m absolutely convinced that if Gore or Clinton had been in the White House, 80 percent of the Republicans would have been against [the Iraq War too].” Such an understanding of the blinding nature of partisanship when it comes to U.S. foreign policy would be a huge asset in a Trump cabinet.

T.J. Rodgers

Trump and his transition team would be remiss if they only considered politicians for roles in the cabinet. Even the State Department could benefit from being guided by someone with extensive experience in the private sector. T.J. Rodgers, the founder of Cypress Semiconductor (and a supporter of Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes this website), is one such candidate.

Throughout his career, Rodgers has been an unabashed defender of free-market capitalism. Given how much the freeing of markets have improved living standards and the quality of lives around the world and how only free markets can actually sustain sustainable development, the world and the United States would benefit from a secretary of state who was an unabashed advocate of real capitalism. Such advocates are not as common, or outspoken, in an American business world increasingly intermingling with government, but Rodgers has repeatedly warned against cronyism here and abroad. Appointing someone who understands this as secretary of state could go along way in restoring justified optimism among Americans and around the world.

Tulsi Gabbard

Yesterday Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) met with President-elect Trump, and is reportedly being considered for an appointment at State, Defense, or the United Nations. Gabbard, a combat veteran who volunteered for a 12-month tour of duty in Iraq while serving in the Hawaii Army National Guard, would make an excellent choice for secretary of state, one that would send a clear and unequivocal message about Trump’s interest in breaking from the deadly bipartisan foreign policy status quo.

After her meeting with Trump, she said she “felt it important to take the opportunity to meet with the president-elect now before the drumbeats of war that neocons have been beating drag us into an escalation of the war to overthrow the Syrian government—a war which has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives and forced millions of refugees to flee their homes in search of safety for themselves and their families.”

Gabbard has been an opponent of U.S. intervention in Syria since coming to Congress in 2013, arguing that “intervention in Syria goes against America’s national security, international credibility, economic interest, and moral center.”

While she served in Iraq, she has said she was against the war, and has also called for an end to the Afghanistan war “as soon as possible,” saying the U.S. should never have been in those places to begin with. She is also among a growing faction of members of Congress known as “Saudi skeptics,” voting against U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and co-sponsored the House version of Rand Paul’s legislation to stop arms sales to Saudi Arabia. In 2014, she backed Michigan Republican Rep. Justin Amash’s amendment to defund the National Security Agency over its warrantless surveillance program.

Gabbard stepped down as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee in February so that she could endorse Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primaries, after complaining that the DNC had not scheduled enough primary debates.

Wesley Clark

The former Democratic candidate for president earned credibility among non-interventionists for his opposition to the war in Iraq, but it wasn’t enough to help him win the Democratic nomination in 2004. Clark has been skeptical about turning to military force first in U.S. foreign policy but also accepts that the U.S. is and ought to remain in a position of global leadership.

“You cannot win the war on terror by military force,” Clark told Democracy Now‘s Amy Goodman in 2007. “It is first and foremost a battle of ideas. It is secondly a law enforcement effort and a cooperative effort among nations. And only as a last resort do you use military force.”

“The truth about the Middle East is, had there been no oil there, it would be like Africa. Nobody is threatening to intervene in Africa,” Clark noted to Goodman. “The problem is the opposite. We keep asking for people to intervene and stop it. There’s no question that the presence of petroleum throughout the region has sparked great power involvement.”

In his 2014 book Don’t Wait for the Next War: A Strategy for American Growth and Global Leadership, Clark lays out what Walter Russell Mead called in the Wall Street Journal a Hamiltonian vision for U.S. foreign policy, where “a strong federal government closely linked to powerful firms in the private sector will promote economic development at home and ensure national security abroad.” In this approach, the U.S. would keep its ability to project power globally but try to avoid conflict when possible.

The problem there is that the ability to project the power sometimes becomes enough to drive policymakers into conflicts. The intervention in Libya, which Clark criticized, could be seen through this framework. Many of the immediate costs of intervening were already baked in to the daily cost of maintaining the U.S. military and its ability to project power.

In a 2011 op-ed in the Washington Post, Clark warned that the American intervention that was then starting in Libya did not meet standards that ought to be met for U.S. interventions. Those include a clear national interest at stake, where the result would be deemed worth the cost of intervention; knowing the purpose of the intervention and how military action would achieve it; determining the political end game before the intervention begins; building public support, obtaining diplomatic and legal authority, and bringing allies into the process; avoiding U.S. and civilian casualties; and getting it over with quickly. Clark is an advocate of continued U.S. intervention in Syria, although it would not appear to meet all of the standards he laid out. Last year, he wrote that the idea of the U.S. and its allies creating “safe zones” for refugees “offers the best, lowest cost and the surest means of regaining some stability in the region.”

Clark is no non-interventionist, but he is certainly a skeptic of intervention and an advocate for caution, which would make him a useful, if unavoidably flawed, member of a Trump cabinet.

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