Banks Shrug As US Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To 6-Week Lows

If everything is so awesome, with a growth/inflation miracle just around the corner, then why is the US treasury yield curve collapsing in a dismal-growth-outlook-implying manner?

Followingthe kneejerk spike on the election, 5s30s have crashed to 6 week lows…

 

Nowhere is this decoupling from reality narrative more obvious than in the banks as NIM is a spread not an absolute…

 

And, as we asked last night, if bank stocks are so great and bank business looks so shiny… why is bank credit risk now at its highest in a month?

 

Probably bonds and credit are wrong and stocks have it right, right?

 

via http://ift.tt/2ghYEyr Tyler Durden

As Investors Dump Treasuries, German Bonds Are Panic-Bid To Record Low Yields

2Y German bond yields are collapsing, hitting record lows at -72bps this morning as Commerzbank reports a collateral squeeze into year-end. Since the election, the spread between 2Y UST and 2Y GER has exploded by over 50bps, spiking Treasuries to their 'cheapest' to Bunds since 2005…

Bloomberg reports that Commerzbank says in note that the demand for German collateral ahead of year-end continues to rise, reflected in repo funding levels reaching new lows; 3- month GC moves below -70bps, with little on the offer side

 

And so as investors dump US Treasuries en masse, they are piling into Bunds…

 

Sending the spread to 2005 highs (in absolute terms)…

 

Notice that the 181bps spread this time is at a drastically lower overall yield than in 2005 making UST even 'cheaper'.

via http://ift.tt/2gxXC4t Tyler Durden

Unnecessary $54 Billion Transit Package Passes Easily in Seattle

Sound Transit On Election Day, Seattle-area voters approved the massive Sound Transit 3 (ST3) proposition, which adds rapid bus service lines and 64 miles of light rail to the region’s transportation network for the bargain price of $54 billion.

That the measure prevailed is hardly the most shocking thing to come out of this election. Traffic is becoming an increasingly important issue for Seattle, which ranks as one of the world’s most congested cities, and ST3 was presented as the only way to tackle it by an array of influential voices.

Seattle mayor Ed Murray stumped for the transit expansion throughout the fall, while Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing all gave generous campaign contributions. ST3 also racked up endorsements from many local media outlets, with everyone from the left-of-center Seattle Weekly to the left-of-Marx The Stranger promising that the massive ramp-up in public transit spending would alternatively ease traffic congestion, save the planet, and/or alleviate racial injustice.

This all proved more than enough, with ST3 passing by wide margins in almost every county where it was on the ballot. However, those residents waiting impatiently for ST3 to unclog the highways and open up the city may want to start moderating their expectations.

As Reason has previously reported, ST3 is unlikely to do much to relieve current traffic or accommodate the 800,000-plus people that are expected to move to the Puget Sound area over the next couple of decades.

Indeed, by Sound Transit’s own numbers, the huge expansion will only serve an extra 30,000 riders by 2040, nowhere near enough of an impact to affect congestion levels. And this takes Sound Transit’s most optimistic projections at face value, even though the agency (like so many others) has a history of cost overruns, construction delays, and wildly under-met ridership targets.

For instance, when Sound Transit first proposed a light rail system for Seattle, it projected that it would be delivering 105,000 riders per day by 2010. Instead, it took a mixture of a University of Washington football game, a Mariner’s baseball game, and Friday nightlife traffic for the rail system to get above 100,000 for the first time—in October of this year. A typical day sees closer to 70,000 riders.

And the far-off 2040 completion goal for ST3 may very well be missed. When Seattle embarked on a far simpler light rail project in 1996, it still managed to miss its deadline by 10 years (and at over twice the projected cost). That scenario seems likely to repeat itself.

Seattle-area residents can at least take comfort in one predictable element of ST3: Come January 1, sales tax, property tax, and car registration fees will all go up to start paying for the $54 billion project.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2fO6MZi
via IFTTT

The OPEC “Vienna Matrix” – If 1MM Cut, Oil To $59; If No Cut, Oil To $40

While the market has taken the latest round of “optimistic” jawboning by OPEC members in stride, sending crude higher by 4% ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna where the terms of the OPEC production cut are expected to be finalized, the reality is that a favorable outcome may be problematic.

As Bloomberg’s Julian Lee explained overnight, “OPEC says it’s close to a deal to cut oil output for the first time since 2008, a move that may halt a 2 1/2-year price slump. The actions of individual member states tell a different story. The simple math supporting cuts looked solid at OPEC’s meetings in June and December. Prices then were way below most members’ fiscal break-even points. An output cut now of 1.5 million barrels a day, or 5 percent, would need to boost the oil price by only $2.50 a barrel for OPEC nations collectively to be better off. A $5 price increase would boost the value of what they pump by about $100 million a day.”

There are various nuances as to why a deal, one in which Saudi Arabia would bear the brunt of total production cuts, but as Lee notes, while OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo has been touring member nations to shore up support for an agreement before the Nov. 30 meeting, culminating with a trip to Doha for talks last week, “the meeting didn’t resolve much. It certainly didn’t tackle any of the thorniest questions that OPEC must still overcome if coordinated measures are to happen.”

“The road from the OPEC agreement in Algiers to the next official OPEC meeting in Vienna is long and bumpy,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London.

Meanwhile, OPEC production continues to surge, hitting new all time highes just this month, effectively leaving the cartel little option but to reduct supply, however even with a cut it would only bring down production to a level seen as recently as May of this year. As a result, as Bank of America notes, downward oil price pressures are now coming mostly from within the cartel itself. “Will OPEC decide to end the price war or not? For starters, it is important to note that the cartel is running with very limited spare production capacity. As a result, we would argue that it makes good economic sense to end the price war, or at least declare a truce, at this stage.”

Which brings us to the 4 possible outcomes from the Vienna meeting and how they would impact the price of oil.  Here is how Bank of America lays out the possibilities:

  • First, we see only a slim chance that OPEC does not announce an oil supply cut deal on November 30, an outcome that could send oil prices temporarily below $40/bbl, in our view.
  • Most likely, OPEC will go with a 500 thousand b/d or 1 million b/d supply cut announcement, in our view. Should OPEC just deliver a half a million barrel deal, we see prices staying around the current levels.
  • For prices to firmly break over $50/bbl, OPEC would have to deliver a 1 mn b/d cut.
  • If the cut comes with firm quotas and a tight control mechanism, we see WTI prices averaging $59/bbl in 2017, while a looser deal would probably shave $5 off this number.

Some more detail on the two most likely outcomes:

OPEC agrees to 1 million cut:

Historically, Saudi production has fluctuated quite extensively to follow price (or demand) trends (Chart 15), in turn allowing for a steady and well managed inventory cycle. While BofA is not expecting a return to the old regime where Saudi micromanaged global oil stocks, it does project OPEC crude supply to drop sequentially (Chart 16). Under this scenario, BofA’s base case, WTI crude oil prices will average $55/bbl in 1H17 and $59/bbl over the course of the year. The cut would enable a fast rebalancing of global crude markets and possibly a shift into backwardation. Moreover, the deal would likely incorporate a production freeze from Russia.

Oil may drop to $40/bbl if the cartel cannot agree to cut:

A 1million b/d swing in global oil supplies impacts prices, on average, by about $17/bbl (Chart 19). With non-OPEC supply stabilizing and OPEC adding more barrels to the market in recent months, a price recovery is looking less likely. If OPEC does not come to a deal on supply, we see the oil market surplus extending through 3Q17 (Chart 20) and oil prices facing a renewed slump. In some ways it is OPEC’s moment of truth, or maybe just a moment of truce. After all, the ongoing price war is driven by technology. Even if the cartel puts a 12 month supply cut deal together, technological advances will likely keep pressing down shale oil cost structures.

via http://ift.tt/2fYRpe5 Tyler Durden

Can You Spot a Trend in New Jersey’s Ten Credit Rating Downgrades Under Christie?

Since Gov. Chris Christie took office in 2010, New Jersey has seen its credit downgraded 10 times by the “big three” credit rating agencies.

The 10th downgrade took place last week, when S&P Global Ratings knocked the state’s rating down another notch. Credit ratings are a rough way to judge the long-term fiscal soundness of a state’s budget (only Illinois has a lower rating, according to S&P), but they mean more than that. As a practical matter, low credit ratings make it more expensive to borrow on bond markets and end up costing taxpayers more anytime the state needs to borrow.

Thanks to NJ.com for rounding up a history of the downgrades during Christie’s two terms in Trenton. The paper notes that the 10 black marks against the state’s credit rating is a record for a single governor.

See if you can spot a trend (emphasis mine) in the following:

  1. February 2011 (S&P): “The lower rating reflects our concern regarding the stresses from the state’s poorly funded pension system, substantial post-employment benefit obligations, and above-average debt levels.”
  2. April 2011 (Moody’s Investors Service): “These rising costs have been exacerbated by the state’s long-history of underfunding its pension contributions, and most recently, cutting all or nearly-all contributions in FY2009 through FY2011.”
  3. August 2011 (Fitch Ratings Inc.): “The downgrade…reflects the mounting budgetary pressure presented by significant and growing funding needs for the state’s unfunded pension and employee benefit liabilities.”
  4. April 2014 (S&P): “Almost five years after the official start of the economic recovery, New Jersey continues to struggle with structural imbalance.” (In a statement about the downgrade, Christie’s spokesman said “the rising costs of pension, health benefits and debt service” were to blame for that imbalance.)
  5. May 2014 (Fitch): “The downgrade…incorporates financial operations that have been challenged by overly optimistic revenue projections, a multitude of long-term spending pressures including significant unfunded pension and employee benefit obligations.”
  6. May 2014 (Moody’s): “Structural budget imbalance exacerbated by rapidly growing pension and OPEB [“other post-employment benefits”] costs.”
  7. September 2014 (Fitch): “…the state relied upon the repudiation of its statutory contribution requirements to the pension systems to return to budgetary balance, exacerbating a key credit weakness.”
  8. September 2014 (S&P): “The downgrade reflects our view that New Jersey will face increased long-term pressures in managing its long-term liabilities.”
  9. April 2015 (Moody’s): “The downgrade to A2 was driven by the lack of improvement in the state’s weak financial position and large structural imbalance, primarily related to continued pension contribution shortfalls.”
  10. November 2016 (S&P): “Recent events have added incremental out-year budget pressure, in our opinion, to what is already a sizable structural budget imbalance driven primarily by pension underfunding.”

It’s almost like the ratings agencies have been trying to tell New Jersey something.

“I don’t pay a lot of attention to these guys,” Christie said of the credit rating agencies in 2014 when asked about the eighth credit rating downgrade on the above list.

Seriously, though, the state’s pension systems are a total mess. When Christie came into office in 2010, New Jersey was facing a $54 billion funding shortfall to pay for current and future retirees. He immediately set about tackling the problem—to his credit—and in 2011 the state passed a pension fund rescue plan that would have theoretically closed the funding gap within a few decades.

Since then, though, Christie’s subsequent budgets have failed to meet the promises laid out in that 2011 plan, leading to credit rating downgrades and spiraling debt. Today, the state owes an estimated $135 billion in future pension costs.

Pensions are a problem almost everywhere, but few states are in as much trouble as New Jersey.

A recent report from S&P suggests that if all pension unfunded liabilities were divvied up between the country’s whole population, every man, woman, and child in the United States would owe $800 to pay for public workers’ retirements. That same report estimated that the per-person pension debt in the New Jersey is more than $10,600.

As the New York Post noted this week, New Jersey’s $35 billion annual state budget is in no shape to fill the state’s pension hole. Even after spending $1.9 billion on pensions this year (a record for the state), things are looking no better.

There may not be any way for New Jersey to save itself from this mess. Eventually, I suspect, the state will have to go to court and argue that it is unable to pay for the retirement promises made to its public workers. That’s not going to be fun for anyone counting on a pension check from the state, but major cuts in benefits will not spare taxpayers from having to pay off a portion of the debt.

Other states can still avoid New Jersey’s fate by undertaking reforms that move new workers into private retirement plans and by not shortchanging annual pension payments in order to spend money on other things.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2gguvA4
via IFTTT

India’s War On Cash Is Forcing The Rich To Beg The Poor For Help

Authored by Amrit Dhillon, originally posted at The Sydney Morniong Herald,

Driver Rahul Sharma, 25, remembers the exact day when his employer turned from a wolf into a lamb. It was November 9 when his employer called him  beta  – Hindi for "dear" – for the first time. The maid was asked to give him a cup of tea, for the first time.

"I was shocked at his sudden niceness. It went on for two days," said Sharma. For the past three years, his New Delhi-based employer has been abusive, bad-tempered, and imperious, often demanding that he turn up for work at 6am after finishing work at midnight.

 

"He didn't even bother to remember my name. When he wanted to summon me, he'd call out 'driver!'," Sharma said.

 

"On the third day, the penny dropped. He asked me to deposit 250,000 rupees ($4900) in my bank account on his behalf so that he could get rid of his black money."

An Indian woman shows discontinued Indian currency notes and a photocopied ID card as she queues outside Reserve Bank of ...

An Indian woman shows discontinued Indian currency notes and a photocopied ID card as she queues outside Reserve Bank of india. Photo: AP

Maids, drivers, nannies, and cooks in India are experiencing unusual politeness from their employers. Beyond the work they do every day, they suddenly have another use – to launder the undeclared cash which the rich have been hoarding in steel wardrobes, under the mattress and in under-bed storage.

This sudden outbreak of niceness is the outcome of India's current crackdown on "black money" – income in the form of cash that has not been declared to the tax authorities. On November 8, the day before Sharma's employer became a lamb, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped 500 and 1000-rupee notes to root out corruption and force more Indians into the tax net.

In one fell swoop, the tens of millions of rupees that the rich kept at home in these denominations became worthless. If they deposit the money in the bank tax officials will pounce, imposing staggering penalties and taxes.

However until December 30, each Indian is allowed to deposit a smallish sum of 250,000 rupees in such defunct notes in their bank accounts without questions being asked. That is why the rich need the service of the poor.

A presswallah who irons the clothes in the Indian capital says he was asked by three clients to deposit 200,000 rupees ...

A presswallah who irons the clothes in the Indian capital says he was asked by three clients to deposit 200,000 rupees in his account in return for a payment of 10,000. Photo: Amrit Dhillon

Sharma and others like him have been implored by suddenly humble employers to deposit the amount in their accounts by the deadline – to be returned to their employers later.

"I refused him. I don't want to get into trouble later if someone asks me how I got this money when I'm only a driver," Sharma said.

Coconut water seller Mohan Kishore says the cash crisis has made it hard for him to pay his suppliers but he feels the ...

Coconut water seller Mohan Kishore says the cash crisis has made it hard for him to pay his suppliers but he feels the hardship is worth it for the "punishment" of the rich. Photo: Amrit Dhillon

Domestic staff and factory employees are going around with big grins, delighting in the panic and anxiety etched on the faces of the fat cats who never showed them any consideration, not to mention the delicious irony of being beseeched by their now squirming masters.

Modi's message in a recent speech – "see how I make the powerful suffer with you" – has resonated powerfully. "For once the rich are as troubled as we poor Indians are every day," said Akash Atwal, a driver with a New Delhi car rental firm.

Greengrocer Bittu Bharati in Lajpat Nagar, south Delhi, has been offered payment in advance for the fruit his clients ...

Greengrocer Bittu Bharati in Lajpat Nagar, south Delhi, has been offered payment in advance for the fruit his clients will buy over the next year. Photo: Amrit Dhillon

In return for depositing the scrapped notes, domestic staff and others are being offered 10 to 25 per cent as commission. Some have accepted, happy to pocket an unexpected windfall; others, fearing trouble, have refused; and others have refused out of the principle that, if some big fish have been caught, leave them wriggling at the end of the line.

In their desperation to get rid of their ill-gotten money, rich Indians are dumping sacks of notes into the River Jamuna in New Delhi. Some have made a bonfire of their cash at some deserted place before running away to avoid identification. Police have stopped cars filled with suitcases stuffed with 1000-rupee notes, their drivers rushing to distant relatives they haven't seen for years to ask them to deposit their cash.

Rupee withdrawal: customers wait in line to exchange discontinued rupee banknotes at a Bank of Baroda branch in Dadri, ...

Rupee withdrawal: customers wait in line to exchange discontinued rupee banknotes at a Bank of Baroda branch in Dadri, Uttar Pradesh, India. Photo: Bloomberg

"Some families who buy fruit from me regularly wanted to get rid of 100,000 ($1900) worth of notes by paying me in advance for the fruit they will buy over the next year" said Bittu Bharati, who runs a fruit stall with his uncle in Lajpat Nagar.

Others who are usually paid in cash – florists, beauticians, personal trainers and "presswallahs' who iron clothes in neighbourhoods – have also been told they can have their services paid for two years in advance, just so that affluent families can dispose of their expired cash. Then it's up to them to exchange the money at the bank.

Indians stand in a queue to deposit and exchange discontinued currency notes outside a bank in Allahabad, India.

Indians stand in a queue to deposit and exchange discontinued currency notes outside a bank in Allahabad, India. Photo: AP

Some Indians are being too clever by half. A divorced man who had defied the courts by refusing alimony to his wife was seized with a new respect for the law and offered to pay her the arrears – in the banned currency notes. The judge threw him in jail until he paid in the new notes.

Domestic staff have been chuckling while exchanging stories of what's been happening in the homes of their employers: sudden palpitations, wailing wives, altercations over how to get rid of the banned notes, profuse sweating and pure despair.

Chemists have reported a spike in the sale of sleeping tablets. Mumbai hospitals have reported a surge in panic attacks. But some doctors are feeling queasy themselves – it's estimated that about 40 per cent of doctors are paid in cash.

"I'm an ordinary man and I'm suffering hardship too. I was in a long queue on Saturday. But it's worth it. The rich need to be punished for being greedy. I am savouring the moment," said a smiling Mohan Kishore, who sells fresh coconut water on a South Delhi street.

via http://ift.tt/2fYO66P Tyler Durden

Trump Continues To Blast Media – Cancels Meeting With “Failing New York Times”

Just one day after calling a summit of the major mainstream media executives and anchors at Trump Tower in which he referred to everyone as “dishonest, deceitful liars,” Trump this morning has continued his feud with the media by cancelling a planned meeting with the “failing New York Times.”  A tweet sent by Trump this morning indicated that the meeting was cancelled after the New York Times tried to change the “terms and conditions” of the meeting which Trump found to be “not nice.”

 

Trump also took shots at the NYT’s for their “nasty tone,” “inaccurate” coverage and record-high complaints.

 

Meanwhile, the New York Times released a statement saying that they never tried to change the rules but refused Trump’s request to squash an on-the-record session.

 

While Trump has never had a great relationship with the New York Times, it turned nuclear back in October when they obtained and published a copy of his 1995 tax return along with a baseless headline implying that he hadn’t paid taxes in 20 years.  In reality, the tax return merely revealed Trump’s usage of net operating losses to offset ordinary income which is a fairly common practice employed by many business owners. 

In its leading Sunday story, the New York Times reports that “Trump Tax Records Obtained by The Times Reveal He Could Have Avoided Paying Taxes for Nearly Two Decades.” Specifically, it reports that according to a previously undisclosed 1995 tax filing, Trump reported a $916 million loss on his income tax returns that year which could have allowed him to legally avoid paying any federal income tax for up to 18 years. As it explains, “the 1995 tax records, never before disclosed, reveal the extraordinary tax benefits that Mr. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, derived from the financial wreckage he left behind in the early 1990s through mismanagement of three Atlantic City casinos, his ill-fated foray into the airline business and his ill-timed purchase of the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan.”

 

Certainly the early posturing seems to indicate that Trump will continue to have a fairly contentious relationship with the media for the next four years….and we suspect his supporters are just fine with that.

via http://ift.tt/2gghzKm Tyler Durden

A.M. Links: Trump Vows to Scrap Trans-Pacific Trade Deal on First Day in Office, Kanye West Hospitalized, Tsunami Hits Japan

  • Donald Trump says he will withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on his first day in the White House.
  • The Trump administration will not pursue charges against Hillary Clinton.
  • “At least a half-dozen Democratic electors have signed onto an attempt to block Donald Trump from winning an Electoral College majority, an effort designed not only to deny Trump the presidency but also to undermine the legitimacy of the institution.”
  • Tsunami waves, caused by a 6.9-magnitude earthquake, have struck Japan.
  • “The US State Department issued a travel alert Monday urging US nationals to exercise caution at holiday festivals, events and outdoor markets in Europe in the coming weeks, a day after French security services thwarted an ISIS-linked plot.”
  • Kanye West has reportedly been hospitalized.

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2fNU0Kp
via IFTTT

Oil Slides To $47 Handle After Iraq Says “Not Fair” To Cut Oil Output

After the last few days melt-up in WTI because “an OPEC deal is certain,” it seems Iraq is ready to spoil the party once again. Sending WTI (Jan17) tumbling from over $49 to a $47 handle, Reuters reports, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jafari told reporters, “it would not be fair for us to cut oil output.”

 

via http://ift.tt/2gdA2cz Tyler Durden