Gigi Hadid, Melania Trump, the American Music Awards, and the Promise of a Humor-Free America

One of the dumbest things of all time (all time, I tells you!) was the post-9/11 pronunciamento by Vanity Fair jefe Graydon Carter, “I think it’s the end of the age of irony.” Carter, a former co-creator of Spy (arguably the house organ of the era he pronounced dead), was of course mistaken. Irony—defined most banally as reflexive glibness—has certainly survived and probably flourished ever since (certainly, celebrity-obsessed Vanity Fair soldiers on as the gargoyle version of Spy).

And can anyone seriously argue that we haven’t entered an even weirder, darker era of at least one version of irony: a state in which we can no longer fully decide between competing interpretations of basic reality? Are we real or are we elaborate simulations (yes, I watch Westworld on HBO and still have no clear sense of last night’s episode)? It’s not as if there weren’t signs that we’re living in a Philip K. Dick novel before the World Trade Center and Pentagon were attacked. But when you look at something like the recent Saturday Night Live performance of “Hillary Clinton” singing Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah,” you’ve got to ask: Could it really be as godawful and serious as it appears to be? Or is it some sort of mega-deep ironic Andy Kaufman-style parody of an actress on a tuckered-out, hyper-politically correct “cutting-edge” show? For the sake of all that’s good and decent in the world, I know I want to believe the latter, even as I know I’m wrong.

Before I lose the inspiration of this post completely, let me direct readers to the latest flap emanating from a generally unheralded and unwatched awards program. Last night’s American Music Awards was the 44th in the show’s history (!) but if you’re like the overwhelming majority of Americans (the very people announced in the show’s title!), you had and have no idea that they were happening. Supermodel (aren’t they all?) Gigi Hadid was a presenter and did a short and uninspired impersonation of First Lady to-be Melania Trump, which immediately created a “Twitter storm” the likes of which hasn’t been seen since Rand Paul stood up to protest the Obama administration’s nomination of John Brennan to head the CIA and the president’s policy on drone attacks back in 2013.

The offending-to-some impersonation is clipped below. Check out the AMA tweets here.

My point is simply that if we haven’t entered a post-ironic age in America, we have most decidedly entered a post-humor era in which all utterances and attempts at comedy or even just plain speech are pretexts for being pissed off about the unfairness of it all. As Robby Soave noted earlier today, you can see that already with the whole Mike-Pence-at-Hamilton show flap and quite possibly the worst of many bad things to come over the next four years is the endless posturing on all sides of constant outrage and umbrage at every real and imagined slight, failed joke, and off-the-cuff remark.

We have just ended an election in which the two least-approved candidates of all time failed to win over the American people in a decisive manner. Record and near-record lows of us identify as Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives. There will clowns to the left of us and jokers to the right who will insist on injecting politics into everything and there will be equal and opposite responses that will be long on theatrical outrage and short of substance. Lord knows that Donald Trump is beyond thin-skinned but all those crying-on-the-outside clowns aren’t helping things either.

It will be a damned dirty shame if we allow the next four years to be as tedious and humor-starved as they are already shaping up to be. I’m not against political humor and art—indeed, I believe all creative expression is inherently political—but there’s a huge difference between social commentary and art that’s serious the points it’s trying to make and injecting stupid, tired ideological calls-and-responses into every goddamn thing we do. “The politicization of everything” is already one reason why so many of us hate politics. I can remember interviewing Bill Maher for Reason way back in the late 1990s, when he was still doing Politically Incorrect. Brian Doherty and I asked what made a guest terrible. “Anybody who gets upset all the time and says, ‘That’s not funny. That’s serious'” (I’m paraphrasing). If that same sensibility plays out everywhere else over the next four years—and after years of trigger warnings, micro-aggressions, and the changing fortunes of liberals and conservatives—strap yourselves in for a very tedious time.

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Billionaire, Wall Street Democrat Added To Treasury List As More Clues Emerge On Trump Cabinet

Trump held meetings with several potential candidates for senior administration jobs over the weekend at his Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey.  While no new official announcements were made over the weekend, we did get a couple of new clues on potential appointments to key positions.

 

Of the open positions, the running for Treasury Secretary has emerged as one of the most highly contested with a handful of very successful candidates.  As Bloomberg reports, Trump’s weekend meetings in New Jersey included sessions with Jon Gray, a billionaire democrat from Blackstone who vehemently supported Hillary’s campaign.  Other candidates for the Treasury job include Trump campaign finance manager Steven Mnuchin; David McCormick, the president of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates; and billionaire Wilbur Ross.  Jamie Dimon’s name has also been tossed around for the Treasury post though it’s unclear whether he would be interested.

President-elect Donald Trump discussed the possibility of naming Blackstone Group LP’s Jon Gray as Treasury secretary during a half-hour meeting the two held Sunday, according to people familiar with the events.

 

Gray, 46, a billionaire who oversees real estate at the world’s biggest manager of alternative assets, is a Democrat who financially supported Hillary Clinton during the campaign. He’s one of a number of business executive to be considered for the role by Trump’s transition team, joining a list that includes Trump campaign finance manager Steven Mnuchin; David McCormick, the president of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates; and billionaire Wilbur Ross.

 

Ross, a distressed-debt investor, met with Trump on Sunday and is also being considered to lead the Commerce Department, people with knowledge of the deliberations have said. Ross entered his meeting at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, about 10 minutes after Gray exited his, which lasted about 32 minutes. McCormick later arrived at the golf resort.

 

The “in-depth” conversation with Gray “included the economy, global capital markets and the world financial situation,” Trump’s transition team said in a statement late Sunday. “Future legislation regarding the tax code and long-term debt were also discussed.”

 

David McCormick, president of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, also met with Trump. McCormick, a West Point graduate who served in the first Gulf War, later worked at Treasury and in the White House during the George W. Bush administration.

For Secretary of Defense, General James Mattis seemed to take the lead over the weekend after Trump sent the following tweet:

 

That said, Trump is actively considering several other candidates including Texas Governor Rick Perry, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Marine Corps General John F. Kelly.

From 2010 to 2013, Mattis headed the U.S. military’s Central Command, which oversees operations stretching from the Horn of Africa through the Middle East and into Central Asia including Afghanistan and Pakistan. During that time, he was at odds with the Obama administration on the need to prepare for potential threats from Iran and about resources for Afghanistan.

 

Mattis, 66, served as an American commander in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and was known to be popular among the troops.

 

Among those also said to be in the mix to run the Pentagon is former Texas Governor Rick Perry, who will meet with the president-elect on Monday, according to a person familiar with Trump’s schedule. Perry, 66, is thought to be under consideration for a number of roles in the new administration; Miller declined to say which positions.

 

Trump met with Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas on Nov. 18, also to talk about the defense position, said two people with knowledge of the meeting. On Sunday the president-elect was to meet with Marine Corps General John F. Kelly, former commander of the U.S. Southern Command.

And, last, but certainly not least, the debate over who will fill the critical Secretary of State position is still raging.  Speculation swirled over a potential Romney appointment over the weekend as the two met for a brief meeting in New Jersey and VP Pence confirmed that “Governor Romney is under active and serious consideration to serve as secretary of state of the United States.”  That said, given the bitter exchanges between Romney and Trump during the campaign, many doubt whether he is seriously being considered.  Other candidates under active consideration include New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator Bob Corker from Tennessee, John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the UN, and Nikki Haley, the governor of South Carolina.

Pence said that Trump and Romney had a good meeting and “a warm and a substantive exchange.”

 

“I can say that Governor Romney is under active and serious consideration to serve as secretary of state of the United States,” Pence said on the CBS program “Face the Nation.”

 

A source close to Romney from his time as Massachusetts governor expressed concern he might be “frozen out” by officials whose thinking appears to be closer to Trump’s, such as Flynn, Mattis, White House counselor Steve Bannon, and members of Trump’s family.

 

“How much influence and latitude he will have will be up to Trump, and they don’t appear to be on the same page about much,” the source said.

 

Besides Romney, Trump’s short list to become the nation’s top diplomat is said to include former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator Bob Corker from Tennessee, John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the UN, and Nikki Haley, the governor of South Carolina.

If Trump is looking to extend an olive branch to the democrats we know of another Secretary of State candidate who happens to be recently unemployed…though we suspect the ongoing FBI criminal investigations could make security clearance an issue.

Hillary

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“What The F**k Was That?” FX Traders Reeling After Sudden Spike In Cable

Shortly after 0826ET, with Cable trading at 1.2400, ‘someone’ decided to back up the truck and buy Sterling with bond hands and feet, spiking the pair to 1.2499 (to the tick) in spot (and over 1.25 in futures). Given the total lack of catalyst for the move, one veteran FX trader exclaimed “what the fuck was that” though noted his lack of surprise at the move in the current chaotic environment.

As Bloomberg reports, heavy barrier option presence at 1.2500 remain untriggered…

 

Chatter that GBPJPY was the driver of the move…

 

Futures show the sudden heavy volume…

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Trump Settles Fraud Suit Over Trump U, Obama Says He’ll Give Trump a Chance, Angela Merkel to Seek Fourth Term: A.M. Links

  • Donald Trump settled a fraud lawsuit over Trump University for $25 million. Trump met with Gen. James Mattis, who is being considered for defense secretary, and with Mitt Romney, reportedly being considered for secretary of state. Barack Obama says he’ll give Trump a chance, even if he attacks his legacy. Melania Trump won’t move into the White House until the end of Barron’s school year.
  • Members of the alt-right held their first post-election convention in Washington, D.C.
  • Police in North Dakota used water cannons in freezing weather against protesters they accused of an “ongoing riot.”
  • A police officer in San Antonio was shot and killed while writing a parking ticket in his patrol car, while a cop in St. Louis shot in his patrol car is in critical condition. Both suspects are at-large.
  • Angela Merkel announced she would seek a fourth term as Germany’s chancellor.
  • Former France President Nicolas Sarkozy lost his bid to be nominated for president once more. Marine Le Pen is leading in early polling for the 2017 election.
  • Kanye West said he was on his “Trump shit” at his latest concert, going into a rant about pay-to-play radio, Hillary Clinton, and Beyonce and Jay-Z, before cutting the performance short.

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Trump’s Pick for Attorney General Is a ‘Drug War Dinosaur’

When Jeff Sessions, Donald Trump’s choice for attorney general, was nominated as a federal judge in 1986, one of the comments that got him into trouble was a joke about the Ku Klux Klan. A federal prosecutor testified that Sessions, at the time the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Alabama, had said he thought the KKK “was OK until I found out they smoked pot.” Although Sessions, now a senator from Alabama, confirmed that story, in light of his longtime obsession with the evils of marijuana the anecdote reads like a joke about him. After all, this is the same man who recently opined that “good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

Sessions’ retrograde views on marijuana, his opposition to sentencing reform, and his enthusiasm for civil forfeiture do not bode well for drug policy under Trump, who campaigned on a “law and order” platform that was consciously modeled after Richard Nixon’s. Trump promised that “safety will be restored” the day he takes office, but he was pretty vague about what that means. It is more than a little disconcerting that an unreconstructed drug warrior like Sessions will help him fill in the details.

Sessions, who pines for the days when Nancy Reagan’s “Just Say No” campaign helped “create a hostility to drug use,” was outraged when President Obama conceded, in a 2014 interview with The New Yorker, that marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol. “I have to tell you, I’m heartbroken to see what the president said just a few days ago,” Sessions told then-Attorney General Eric Holder at a Senate hearing. It’s stunning to me. I find it beyond comprehension….This is just difficult for me to conceive how the president of the United States could make such a statement as that….Did the president conduct any medical or scientific survey before he waltzed into The New Yorker and opined contrary to the positions of attorneys general and presidents universally prior to that?”

At a hearing last April, Sessions bemoaned the message sent by marijuana legalization. “I can’t tell you how concerning it is for me, emotionally and personally, to see the possibility that we will reverse the progress that we’ve made,” he said. “It was the prevention movement that really was so positive, and it led to this decline [in drug use]. The creating of knowledge that this drug is dangerous, it cannot be played with, it is not funny, it’s not something to laugh about, and trying to send that message with clarity, that good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

In both of these cases, we see Sessions’ insistence that truth be subordinated to the anti-drug cause. It is beyond serious dispute that alcohol is more dangerous than marijuana, as measured by acute toxicity, impact on driving ability, frequency of addiction, and the long-term effects of heavy consumption. But Sessions thinks the president should not admit that, lest he encourage teenagers to smoke pot. It is patently absurd to suggest that everyone who tries cannabis—which includes at least two-fifths of the population and probably more like half, allowing for underreporting by survey respondents—is a bad person. But Sessions thinks the government should “send that message with clarity,” the better to discourage teenagers from smoking pot.

Sessions did not explicitly say the federal government should try to reverse marijuana legalization by challenging it in court or by raiding state-licensed cannabusinesses. But he clearly did not approve of the Obama administration’s tolerance for diverse marijuana policies. “It’s far more important than just the details about whether federal prosecutors start prosecuting marijuana cases in Colorado,” he said. “Colorado was one of the leading states that started the movement to suggest that marijuana is not dangerous. And we’re going to find it, in my opinion, ripple through the entire American citizenry, and we’re going to see more marijuana use. It’s not going to be good….We need grownups in charge in Washington to say marijuana is not the kind of thing to be legalized….The Department of Justice needs to be clear, and the president needs to assert some leadership.”

Now that Trump has picked Sessions to head the Justice Department, we may get a clearer idea of how far Sessions wants to go in pressing the point that “marijuana is not the kind of thing to be legalized.” Trump himself, while expressing concern about the consequences of legalization, has repeatedly said the issue should be left to the states—a position that has even broader public support than legalization itself. Recent national polls indicate that most Americans (60 percent, according to Gallup) think marijuana should be legal, while most Republicans continue to oppose legalization. But even among Republicans, most (70 percent, according to a CBS News poll conducted last April) think the feds should not interfere with state decisions in this area.

“While the choice [of Sessions] certainly isn’t good news for marijuana reform,” says Marijuana Majority Chairman Tom Angell, “I’m still hopeful the new administration will realize that any crackdown against broadly popular laws in a growing number of states would create huge political problems they don’t need and will use lots of political capital they’d be better off spending on issues the new president cares a lot more about.” As a practical matter, especially now that legalization has spread to eight states that include one in five Americans, the feds cannot stop the collapse of marijuana prohibition. But if Trump breaks his promise to respect state choices and gives Sessions free rein, the Justice Department could make a lot of trouble for state-legal cannabusinesses. In any case, it is hard to imagine Sessions supporting efforts to remove federal burdens on those businesses, which include not just the threat of prosecution and forfeiture but tax discrimination and barriers to banking.

It also seems unlikely that Sessions will be lending his support as attorney general to legislation that reduces penalties for drug offenses, as Holder and his successor, Loretta Lynch, did. Sessions, along with every other senator, supported the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, which shrank the sentencing gap between the smoked and snorted forms of cocaine. He nevertheless opposed applying the reduced crack penalties to people who committed their offenses before the law was passed but were sentenced afterward. In a 2011 letter to Holder, Sessions complained that “reducing sentences is not tough, creates unpredictability, harms public safety, promotes recidivism, and increases the negative, often devastating effects of illegal drugs, both for those whose sentences are reduced and in the consequent diminished deterrent effect on other potential drug offenders.” Never mind that Sessions himself had supported shorter sentences, agreeing that the pre-2010 penalties were too severe.

More recently, Sessions was a leading opponent of the Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act, which would have made shorter crack sentences retroactive, reduced various other drug penalties, tightened the criteria for certain enhanced punishments, and broadened the criteria for the “safety valve” that lets some drug offenders escape mandatory minimums. “Drug trafficking can in no way be considered a ‘non-violent’ crime,” he and three other senators declared in a letter to their colleagues last February. “It is an industry built on an entire edifice of violence, stretching from the narco-terrorist organizations in South America to the drug deal enforcers that afflict too many U.S. communities.” Sessions thus rejects a central point of agreement underlying bipartisan support for sentencing reform: that there is an important distinction between violent criminals and offenders who engage in peaceful activities arbitrarily proscribed by Congress.

Sessions defends civil forfeiture as well as draconian drug sentences. As Robert Everett Johnson of the Institute for Justice pointed out last year, Sessions does not think it should be any harder than it is for the government to take property supposedly linked to drug offenses, which it can do through civil forfeiture without even charging the owner, let alone convicting him. At a hearing on “The Need to Reform Asset Forfeiture” in April 2015, Sessions said it’s obvious that “criminal violators ought not to be able to keep their ill-gotten gains.” He averred, without citing any evidence, that “95 percent” of people who lose money to forfeiture have “done nothing in their lives but sell dope.”

Sessions, who at one point during the hearing accidentally told the truth by calling the targets of forfeiture “individuals whose money is stolen,” rather alarmingly misstated the standard of proof in federal forfeiture cases, which is “preponderance of the evidence,” meaning the government must show it’s more likely than not that a seized asset is connected to a crime. He instead said the standard for completing a forfeiture (assuming the owner has the resources to challenge it) is “probable cause,” which is what the government needs to seize the asset in the first place. Probable cause, which is also the standard for a search warrant, is substantially less demanding than preponderance of the evidence and much less demanding than proof beyond a reasonable doubt, which is required for a criminal conviction. Sessions nevertheless said probable cause is “appropriate for forfeiture cases” and “it’s unthinkable that we would make it harder for the government to take money from a drug dealer.”

Sessions added that there is nothing wrong with letting law enforcement agencies keep the proceeds of forfeitures they pursue, a policy that has been widely criticized for warping police priorities. He faulted the Obama administration for curtailing the use of federal forfeiture law by state and local agencies, who can use it to evade state restrictions. In short, Sessions thinks civil forfeiture is fine the way it is and sees no need for reform.

“Jeff Sessions is a drug war dinosaur, which is the last thing the nation needs now,” says Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance. Aaron Hertzberg, partner and general counsel at CalCann Holdings, calls Sessions “the worst pick that Trump could have made for attorney general [when] it comes to marijuana issues.”

I’m not sure about that. Chris Christie, who during his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination repeatedly vowed to reverse marijuana legalization in states such as Colorado, might well have been worse. In any case, given the the political costs it would entail, a full-scale crackdown on state-licensed marijuana businesses seems unlikely. But so does normalization of taxes and banking for the cannabis industry. Likewise sentencing reform, which Sessions helped doom this year as a senator, and civil forfeiture reform, which he deems unnecessary. Even if Sessions does not take us back to the days of Just Say No, he can do plenty of damage by blocking further progress in de-escalating the war on drugs.

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Oil Wagers Surge To 9 Year Highs As OPEC Decision Looms

In the aftermath of Trump victory and as an OPEC ‘deal’ decision looms, hedge funds, oil producers, and consumers have placed the largest number of bets on WTI’s next move since August 2007.

Producers and merchants increased short positions, or protection against lower WTI prices, to the highest level since March 2011. They added 66,613 bearish contracts over the past two weeks as prices retreated from last month’s peak at above $50 a barrel. Money managers’ net-long position in WTI advanced for the first time since mid-October, climbing by 3,906 futures and options to 163,321. Shorts climbed 14 percent while longs rose 8.1 percent.

While WTI is exuberantly rising this morning on the heels of Putin’s positive ‘deal’ comments…

 

We note that Oil VIX costs are at their highest in 7 months suggesting traders expect significant price swings no matter what.

 

As Bloomberg reports, “There’s tension in the market, with both producers and consumers worried about what OPEC does or won’t do on Nov. 30,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “They want to be protected from surprising price moves.”

“I suspect that when the OPEC meeting is over there will have been a lot more smoke than fire,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “If they don’t come up with a convincing agreement, they’ll be forced to revisit the issue before long.”

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Key Events In The Coming Thanksgiving-Shortened Week

The key economic releases this week in the Thanksgiving-shortened week, are the durable goods report and new home sales on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Minutes from the November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

The statement from the November FOMC meeting made the case for an upcoming rate hike, giving a strong signal that the FOMC is increasingly comfortable with hiking rates. According to the market there is a near 100% certainty of a hike in December, although the minutes may show caution from a few members and a debate over the costs and benefits of low rates.

In international markets, the focus will be on the surprising aftermath of the first round of French republican primaries, which saw Nicolas Sarzkoy eliminated, and frontrunner Alain Juppe trounced by Sarkozy’s ex-PM Francois Fillon. Attention will also focus on the UK Autumn Statement and FOMC Minutes. OPEC headlines may also abound throughout the week as OPEC officials and oil ministers have meetings throughout the week in efforts to finalize an oil-supply deal before the group’s November 30 formal meeting.

BofA does not expect a large fiscal stimulus in the UK government’s 23 November mid-year budget, but forecasts government borrowing to be increased by £150bn on weaker growth and overshooting borrowing this year. We estimate that discretionary stimulus will translate into less than 0.5% of GDP, as fiscal stimulus carries more risk in the context of Brexit and a large current account deficit with less funding ability.

In the Eurozone, PMIs and consumer confidence are the main releases. President Draghi presents the ECB annual report at the European Parliament and we have several other ECB speakers on the calendar.

 

Key events broken down by day courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

  • The diary is fairly bare to start the week today with nothing of note in Europe this morning and just some second tier data in the US in the form of the Chicago Fed national activity index.
  • It’s not much busier tomorrow either. The only data due out in the morning will be in the UK where we’ll get the October public sector net borrowing data along with CBI total orders and selling prices data for November, while in the US we’ll get existing home sales for October and also this month’s Richmond Fed manufacturing survey. Euro area consumer confidence will also be released on Tuesday afternoon.
  • Kicking off Wednesday will be China where the MNI business indicator is due out in the morning. Over in Europe it’s PMI day with flash November services, manufacturing and composite prints due for the Euro area, Germany and France. The calendar picks up in the US on Wednesday. The most significant data is perhaps the durable and capital goods orders data for October, while initial jobless claims, FHFA house price index, flash manufacturing PMI, new home sales and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment revision for October are due out. Later on Wednesday we’ll also get the FOMC minutes from the meeting earlier this month.
  • Turning to Thursday, early in the morning Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI is due out. The focus is then on Germany where the final Q3 GDP revision will be made before we then get France confidence indicators and then the November IFO survey from Germany again. With it being Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday markets will be shut.
  • Turning to Friday, the overnight data comes from Japan with the October CPI data. In the morning session we’ll then get the preliminary Q3 GDP from the UK before we finish the week in the US with the advance goods trade balance for October, wholesale inventories and the remaining flash November PMI’s (services and composite).

Focusing only on the US, here is a breakdown of events and estimates courtesy of Goldman Sachs

Monday, November 21

08:00 AM Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will participate in a discussion on monetary policy, inflation rates, and the economic outlook at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York.

Tuesday, November 22

  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, October (consensus -0.7%, last +3.2%): Consensus expects existing home sales to decrease by 0.7% after a 3.2% gain in September. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, November (consensus 0, last -4)

Wednesday, November 23

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, October (GS +1.7, consensus +1.2%, last -0.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October (GS -0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); Core capital goods orders, October (GS flat, consensus +0.3%, last -1.3%); Core capital goods shipments, October (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.4%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 1.7%, primarily due to a boost from aircraft orders, and for core capital goods orders to be flat in October following a soft report in September. We expect durable goods orders ex-transportation to be weighed down by a stronger dollar and falling durable goods prices. October industrial production data were slightly softer than expected, and regional manufacturing surveys were mixed. We expect core capital goods shipments to increase 0.1%. Over the last year, core capital goods orders declined by 4.3%, while core capital goods shipments declined by 5.7%.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 19 (GS 245k, consensus 245k, last 235k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 12 (last 1,977k): We expect initial jobless claims to increase to 245k from 235k. Initial claims declined to their lowest levels last week since the early 1970s, which may be partially due to seasonal adjustment challenges associated with the Veterans Day holiday reference week. Continuing jobless claims also fell to post-crisis lows, moving down to 1,977k.
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, September (consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%): Consensus expects a 0.5% gain in the FHFA house price index in September, which has risen 6.4% over the past year. FHFA home prices increased 0.7% in August, a quicker pace than expected. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, November preliminary (consensus 53.4, last 53.4): Details from the November Philly Fed and Empire State surveys were mostly better, following mixed reports from regional manufacturing surveys in October. We find that the flash Markit PMI does contain some predictive power for the ISM.
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, October (GS flat, consensus -0.2%, last 3.1%): We expect new home sales to remain flat in October. New home sales are highly volatile on a month-to-month basis. Single-family and multi-family housing starts rose sharply in the October report, although building permits were little changed on net.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), November (GS 91.2, consensus 91.6, last 91.6): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to edge down to 91.2 in the final November report following a larger than anticipated increase to 91.6 in the preliminary report.
  • 02:00 PM Minutes from the November 1-2 FOMC meeting: The November FOMC meeting statement again described risks to the economic outlook as “roughly balanced” with only the need to see “some” further improvement in the economy before hiking. In the minutes, we will be watching for any further indications about the likelihood of a rate hike in December.

Thursday, November 24

  • Thanksgiving holiday. NYSE closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also close.

Friday, November 25

  • NYSE will close early at 1:00 PM. SIFMA recommends an early 2:00 PM close to bond markets.
  • 08:30 AM Advanced goods trade balance, October (GS -$60.2bn, consensus -$59.0bn, last -$56.1bn); Last month, the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators report showed a smaller than anticipated trade deficit and moderate inventory accumulation in the retail and wholesale sectors. We expect the trade deficit to widen slightly in October.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, October preliminary (consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, November preliminary (consensus 54.7, last 54.8)

Source: Goldman, BofA, DB

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British Government’s “Counter-Extremist” Unit Shuts Down Milo Yiannopoulos Speech

Submitted by Kieran Corcoran via HeatSt.com,

The British Government has shut down a speech by Milo Yiannopoulos after putting pressure on the school hosting it to call it off.

Anti-Extremism officials leaned on faculty at the school in Kent, England, where Yiannopoulos was due to speak, resulting in the event being scrapped.

Speaking to Heat Street about the cancellation, Yiannopoulos said:

“Who knew that the government has a counter-extremism unit that would harass gays?

 

“They’ve bullied and humiliated this poor school into cancelling. Maybe if I called my talk ‘Muslims are Awesome!’ they wouldn’t.”

He had been due to address sixth-form students at the Simon Langton grammar school in Canterbury, where he used to be a student until he was expelled.

The event had attracted national attention and, according to the local press, attention from the UK Government’s Department for Education, which intervened.

In a statement to the Kent Messenger newspaper, Simon Langton headmaster Matthew Baxter said he had been contacted by state officials.

Baxter, who wanted the speech to go ahead, said:

“This decision was taken following contact from the Department For Education’s counter extremism unit, the threat of demonstrations at the school by organised groups and members of the public and our overall concerns for the security of the school site and the safety of our community.

 

“We note that within 24 hours of advertising the event, more than 220 Langton sixth formers had, with parental consent, signed up for the event and that objection to our hosting Mr Yiannopoulus came almost entirely from people with no direct connection to the Langton.

 

“The staff and students of the school were overwhelmingly in favour.

 

“While disappointed that both the pastoral care and intellectual preparation we offer to our students has been called into question, we at the Langton remain committed to the principle of free speech and open debate and will resist, where possible, all forms of censorship.

The cancellation echoes the controversy surrounding Yiannopoulos’s tour of US campuses, which have resulted in heated protests, resignations and tearful counselling sessions for those upset by his presence.

Heat Street has contacted the Department for Education and Simon Langton school for comment.

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Putin Confirms Trump Is Willing To Normalize Russian-American Relations

The shadow cold war between the US and Russia may finally be over.

One week ago, Vladimir Putin explicitly called Donald Trump – something he hasn’t done to a standing US president in years – in which the Russian leader congratulated the president-elect on his victory in the presidential election, wished him “success in the implementation of the pre-election program, and noted his willingness to build a partnership dialogue with the new administration on the principles of equality, mutual respect and non-interference in the internal affairs of each other.”

During the conversation, Putin and Trump “not only agreed to assess the current unsatisfactory state of bilateral relations, but also spoke in favor of active joint work to normalize relations and aim for constructive cooperation on a wide range of issues. The call emphasized in particular the importance of creating a solid foundation of bilateral ties through the development of trade and economic relations.

Well, as of today, the world appears to be back on the way to re-normalcy.

According to Reuters, the Russian President said on Sunday, shortly after his last ever handshake with Obama in his capacity as president, that Donald Trump confirmed to him he was willing to mend ties, though he also said he would welcome President Barack Obama in Russia.

“The President-elect confirmed he is willing to normalize Russian-American relations. I told him the same. We did not discuss where and when we would meet”

Putin also told a news conference in Lima after the APEC summit that Russia is ready to freeze oil output at current levels.

Finally, Putin said he thanked Obama during Sunday’s meeting in Lima “for the years of joint work”. Putin added that he told Obama “that we would be happy to see him (Obama) in Russia anytime if he wants, can and has desire.”

We doubt Obama will have that particular desire – especially if he indeed intends to go back to politics – any time soon.

via http://ift.tt/2fU83vg Tyler Durden

10 Things Libertarians Need to Know About Trump and Pence, Hamilton, and Political Correctness

HamiltonYou might have heard about the latest cultural outrage incident: Vice President-Elect Mike Pence attended a performance of the mega-hit musical Hamilton and, after it was over, a member of the cast read a brief statement expressing “alarm and anxiousness” about President-Elect Donald Trump’s policies.

After thanking Pence for attending, Brandon Victor Davis (who plays Aaron Burr in the production) said this:

“We, sir — we — are the diverse America who are alarmed and anxious that your new administration will not protect us, our planet, our children, our parents, or defend us and uphold our inalienable rights. We truly hope that this show has inspired you to uphold our American values and to work on behalf of all of us.”

Pence later noted that he wasn’t offended by the statement and remained committed to bringing all Americans together in the wake of a highly divisive presidential campaign.

But Trump was furious, and penned several critical tweets.

Public reaction was similarly mixed: liberals cheered the cast of Hamilton for exercising their free speech rights to stand up on behalf of marginalized Americans who have every reason to fear a Trump presidency, while conservatives lamented the disrespect shown the vice president.

But libertarians appear split, too. Libertarian economist and author Steve Horwitz echoed my political-correctness-backlash-aided-Trump theory in his post on the Hamilton kerfuffle, writing on Facebook: “Want to understand one big reason why Trump won? Just look at what the cast of Hamilton did when they discovered Pence was in attendance last night. There is your urban/professional media consumers elitism right there.”

He later added:

My point in the Hamilton post was not that I disagree with the cast’s concerns, but that when leftists do things like that, it’s exactly what makes many people feel like they are being condescended to and treated like rubes for having voted a certain way or thinking a certain way. Or because they don’t think everything should be politicized. You piss them off at your own peril. They don’t respond well to seeing elected officials disrespected too, even if I’m all in favor of it.

Meanwhile, libertarian comedian Jeremy McLellan complained about libertarians who believe, “Trump won because of some stuff I already thought before he won. Truly an amazing coincidence.” (Yeah, he considers me to be one of those libertarians.) On Hamilton and Pence, he writes:

One of the most common characteristics of abusers that I noticed when I worked with people with disabilities was the attitude that the client’s resistance to the abuse was itself thought of as justification for the abuse. Once that feedback loop is established, control is justified through both acquiescence and resistance, and there’s nothing the client can do (behavior wise) to escape. The same holds true for abusive relationships, prisons, police, or any other kind of authoritarian regime. The broader message is “Your resistance to my behavior is the reason I behave this way in the first place.”

Remember this over the next four years when you hear the trope “See this is why Trump won.” If you call his appointees racist, that’s why Trump won. If you boo Mike Pence, that’s why Trump won. If you protest in the streets, that’s why Trump won. If you insult him or his supporters, that’s why Trump won. It’s a rhetorical tool for neutering resistance. Always ask what function it serves.

A couple things.

1. This should go without saying, but it’s absolutely fine for actors to use their platform to criticize the president or vice president after a performance. This isn’t bullying. You can’t really bully the second most powerful person in the country. He always has more power than you.

2. The actor’s statement wasn’t even particularly mean-spirited. Rather, it expressed well-founded concerns about the kinds of policies President Trump has vowed to enact. Trump has promised to deport immigrants, bar Muslims from entering the country, and generally sides with the police over communities of color. It’s perfectly legitimate for members of those groups to be worried—and for their allies to be worried, on their behalf.

3. As evidence of the fact that the statement wasn’t “offensive” (and who cares if it was?), I would cite the fact that Pence wasn’t offended.

4. Trump’s tweets about the incident were revealing in that they appropriate the language of leftist grievance mongering. Trump said Pence was “harassed” and that the theater should be a “safe space.” If you think it’s pathetic when students complain about their delicate feelings being hurt by inappropriate Halloween costumes, you should probably also roll your eyes at the idea of the most-powerful man in the country feeling micro-aggressed by an encore.

5. The fact that Trump complains about this sort of thing is yet more evidence of a disturbing truth: he is vastly more easily offended than the average politician. No one should actually expect Trump to destroy political correctness: he is just as offended by hard truths and defined by identity politics as the leftists he defeated in the election.

6. One more thing about Trump: narcissism, thin skin, and a penchant for authoritarian solutions are quite the toxic mixture.

7. All that said, it could still be the case that people are wrong to be outraged about Hamilton standing up to Pence, but are outraged, nevertheless. Perhaps some people are sick of the relentless politicization of all facets of life. Maybe they think they should be able to attend a play, or watch an awards show, or sit through a Thanksgiving dinner without being relentlessly lectured about how wrong and stupid they are.

8. Like Horwitz, I would prefer to live in a world where elected officials were shown less respect, because people who want to take away our rights (and that’s nearly all of them) don’t deserve it. But supporters of individual liberty have to be tactical. If Hamilton-esque demonstrations actually drive people into the arms of Trump, there may be cause to eschew such theatrics on purely pragmatic grounds.

9. Many people, including many libertarians (including McLellan) think this thesis is fundamentally wrong, or at least unproven: political correctness isn’t a significant factor that explains Trump’s win. Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting points out that most of the people promoting this explanation—Bill Maher, Jonathan Haidt, George Will, David Brooks, Damon Linker, and yours truly—”hated identity politics to begin with” and are thus guilty of confirmation bias. It’s true that we don’t know exactly what’s in the hearts and minds of Trump voters, and there are no comprehensive polls asking them why they did what they did. So yes, the political correctness theory is a bit speculative, and is being advanced by people who were already concerned about political correctness. But it’s not hard to connect the dots: when surveys of Trump voters are done, political correctness invariably comes up. Personally, I have received emails from Trump voters who told me that political correctness was exactly why they voted the way they did. If there’s a danger in making too much of this theory, there’s also a danger in writing it off.

10. That’s because virtually no one in the media saw Trump’s win coming, and political correctness has something to do with that. The polls were wrong (partly) because people who planned to vote for Trump did not admit this to pollsters. The kind of person who supported Trump is someone who believes that he couldn’t be honest or vocal about what he thinks, and saved his rebellion against political correctness for the ballot box. This left foes of Trump less prepared for what was coming. The “unbearable smugness” of the liberal media, as CBS’s Will Rahn describes it, blinded us to reality.

Libertarians and other advocates of a free society should recognize that those inclined to resist Trump and Pence are allies, and that includes the cast of Hamilton­. But such tactics deserve serious scrutiny, even if they are justified. The point is to stop Trump, not just feel better about having made some futile gesture of resistance.

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