Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise To 2006 Record Highs

“Everything is awesome,” right? According to the non-seasonally adjusted S&P CoreLogic (Case-Shiller) Home Price index, prices have recovered all of their losses and are back at the highest since June 2006 record highs in August. All 20 cities saw home prices rises year-over-year (and 14 up MoM) but we note that this data does lag the disappointing home sales data from September.

 

 

 

“Supported by continued moderate economic growth, home prices extended recent gains,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

All 20 cities saw prices higher than a year earlier with 10 enjoying larger annual gains than last month. The seasonally adjusted month-over-month data showed that home prices in 14 cities were higher in August than in July.

 

Other housing data including sales of existing single family homes, measures of housing affordability, and permits for new construction also point to a reasonably healthy housing market.

 

“With the national home price index almost surpassing the peak set 10 years ago, one question is how the housing recovery compares with the stock market recovery. Since the last recession ended in June 2009, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 rose 136% to the end of August while home prices are up 23%. However, home prices did not reach bottom until February 2012, almost three years later. Using the 2012 date as the starting point, home prices are up 38% compared to 59% for stocks. 

 

While the stock market recovery has been greater than the rebound in home prices, the value of Americans’ homes at about $22.3 trillion is slightly larger than the value of stocks and mutual funds at $21.2 trillion.

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Polls 1 – 0 Crowds: Despite Apparent ‘Lead’, Democrats Face Empty Rallies In Florida

If the polls are to be believed, Hillary Clinton has a strong "election-deciding" lead in Florida…

 

However, based on the 'support' on the ground, we suspect those polls have a little over-optimistic Democrat voter turnout bias built into them.

Here is Hillary Clinton's Vice Presidential pick Tim Kaine's "Rally" in West Palm Beach, Florida yesterday…

Caught on tape…Around 30 people turned up

And here is Trump in Tampa… Around 20,000 turned up

 

And today, as News 6 reports, Thousands are expected to attend a campaign rally Tuesday afternoon for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at Orlando-Sanford International Airport.

Trump supporters arrived in Sanford very early Tuesday, more than 12 hours before the rally, which is scheduled to begin at 3 p.m. at Million Air Orlando. Several slept in their cars in the parking lot of the airport, hoping to get a good spot to see Trump later in the day.

And finally, in case you thoght it unfair to compare a Dem VP candidate to a Rep President candidate, here is Mike Pence's crowd in North Carolina yesterday…

Perhaps those 'polls' are biased eh? Just as Larry Lindsey explained.

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A.M. Links: Two Weeks Until Presidential Election, ISIS Attacks Police Academy in Pakistan, Obamacare Premiums Going Up

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content.

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Radioactive Iodine Leak Reported At Norwegian Nuclear Research Reactor

Norwegian authorities reported that a radioactive leak had taken place at a nuclear research reactor in southern Norway. The reactor at the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) in Halden leaked radioactive iodine, the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (NRPA) said. Those working at the reactor at the time of the discharge on Monday were evacuated from the facility, SkyNews reported.


The reactor leaked radioactive iodine

The leak has now been contained, the IFE said.

In a statement, the NRPA said the fault occurred “due to a technical failure during treatment of the fuel in the reactor hall”. The incident is not expected to harm the environment outside the reactor, it added.

NRPA director Per Strand said: “Our focus now is that IFE stopped the spill.

“We are in continuous contact with the IFE. “We will open a new supervision relating to this incident to uncover how this could happen and why we were not notified until the day after.”

The IFE reactor is close to the border with Sweden, but the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority said it did not detect any radiation after the discharge.

Radioactive iodine, also known as I-131, is used in small doses to treat thyroid cancer. It has also been used to treat overactive thyroid disorders.

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Child Porn Charges: Is Autism a Defense?

HandcuffsThe law professor stood at the front of the classroom and introduced Nick, his 30-something son, saying, “I’m very proud of him.”

The dad, Larry Dubin, told the small audience about Nick’s growing up, graduating college, and eventually writing three books. What dad wouldn’t be proud?

Then he talked about his son’s diagnosis: Asperger’s syndrome, a neurological disease on the autism spectrum. As a young child, Nick flapped his arms a lot. At 3, he barely spoke. As an adult, he still cannot tie his shoes, making it all the more impressive that he has achieved so much.

Then the dad added one more item to his son’s resume: Nick is a convicted felon, a sex offender on the registry. He was found guilty of possession of child pornography. “That does not in any way dilute my feelings and respect for who Nick is as a person,” said the dad.

And maybe that’s something the rest of us have to digest.

What the dad has learned the hardest way possible is that many of the people charged with possession of child porn turn out to be people with developmental disabilities. One study found it’s actually the majority, which is not totally surprising. These are people who have often grown up bullied and despised. The differences affect their lives in other ways, too, including the age of the people they relate to. If you’re 20 or 30 but part of you feels about 8 or 10 or 14, it’s not that surprising that that’s the age you’d like to see pictures of. You may not even understand it’s wrong.

Now, I realize this is a tough and depressing topic. No one wants to talk about it. But that’s why it was so impressive that Larry and Nick Dubin decided to make this public appearance—their first — to discuss what it’s like to live with a disability and be a sex offender. They’d been invited to St. Francis College in Brooklyn to do so.

Nick went to the lectern after his silver-haired, professorial dad. He looked boyish in a striped sweater (perhaps he can’t tie a tie). People with Asperger’s can be genius-smart in some respects and far behind in others.

“I think you can see how I’ve been able to survive this,” he said with a grateful nod toward his father.

As a kid, Nick was, not surprisingly, tormented by some of his schoolmates. But as he got older and watched them entering relationships, he felt even worse. When he discovered the world of online porn, that’s where he went to feel less lonely. He knew there was something wrong about child porn, but he had no idea it’s illegal. Then one morning, before dawn, his door burst open and 12 men flooded his room.

They yanked him out of bed, threw him against the wall and clapped him in handcuffs.

It was the FBI. He was under arrest for the illegal images he’d been looking at.

By the time his case was finally settled, Nick had undergone five psych evaluations. They all concluded the same thing: He is developmentally disabled. He poses no threat to children. Still, he is now a felon.

“I don’t enjoy talking about this,” said Nick. But he decided to take this embarrassing leap into the spotlight because as word of his case spread—and because of the fact that his dad is a law professor—the family phone started ringing. Almost once a month, it is a desperate parent sobbing, saying the same thing just happened to his or her son—a son with Asperger’s or autism or some other illness.

Over the years, we have come to take into account a defendant’s IQ in criminal cases. We understand that someone wired differently should be treated differently.

It’s time we realized that about child porn possession, too.

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Global Warming Scam Exposed

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

When you are willing to pay for global warming “research” that has a predetermined outcome, all you do is open the door for fraud.

 Please consider Top University Passed Off Rivals’ Research to Bankroll Climate Change Agenda.

One of the world’s leading institutes for researching the impact of global warming has repeatedly claimed credit for work done by rivals – and used it to win millions from the taxpayer.

 

An investigation by The Mail on Sunday also reveals that when the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) made a bid for more Government funds, it claimed it was responsible for work that was published before the organisation even existed. Last night, our evidence was described by one leading professor whose work was misrepresented as ‘a clear case of fraud – using deception for financial gain’. The chairman of the CCCEP since 2008 has been Nick Stern, a renowned global advocate for drastic action to combat climate change.

 

On Friday, the CCCEP – based jointly at the London School of Economics and the University of Leeds – will host a gala at the Royal Society in London in the peer’s honour. Attended by experts and officials from around the world, it is to mark the tenth anniversary of the blockbuster Stern Review, a 700-page report on the economic impact of climate change. The review was commissioned by Tony Blair’s Government.

 

Last night, CCCEP spokesman Bob Ward admitted it had ‘made mistakes’, both in claiming credit for studies which it had not funded and for papers published by rival academics. ‘This is regrettable, but mistakes can happen… We will take steps over the next week to amend these mistakes,’ he said.

 

The Mail on Sunday investigation reveals today that:

  • The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), which has given the CCCEP £9 million from taxpayers since 2008, has never checked the organisation’s supposed publication lists, saying they were ‘taken on trust’;
  • Some of the papers the CCCEP listed have nothing to do with climate change – such as the reasons why people buy particular items in supermarkets and why middle class people ‘respond more favourably’ to the scenery of the Peak District than their working class counterparts;
  • Papers submitted in an explicit bid to secure further ESRC funding not only had nothing to do with the CCCEP, they were published before it was founded;
  • The publication dates of some of these papers on the list are incorrect – giving the mistaken impression that they had been completed after the CCCEP came into existence.

 

Academics whose work was misrepresented reacted with fury. Professor Richard Tol, a climate change economics expert from Sussex University, said: ‘It is serious misconduct to claim credit for a paper you haven’t supported, and it’s fraud to use that in a bid to renew a grant. I’ve never come across anything like it before. It stinks.’

 

Prof Tol said: ‘Our paper had no relationship to the CCCEP. It came out of David Anthoff’s masters thesis. At the time, the CCCEP did not exist, and it only came into existence after the paper was published. Fraud means deception for financial gain. That is what this is.’

Fake Research

The Daily Caller reports Top University Stole Millions From Taxpayers By Faking Global Warming Research.

A global warming research center at the London School of Economics got millions of dollars from UK taxpayers by taking credit for research it didn’t perform, an investigation by The Daily Mail revealed.

 

The UK government gave $11 million dollars to the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) in exchange for research that the organization reportedly never actually did.

 

Studies that receive financial support from the public sector don’t have to disclose it as an ethical conflict of interest, even when that support is in the millions of dollars. Recent studies in the U.S. — which the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses to support the scientific case for its Clean Power Plan — saw the agency give $31.2 million, $9.5 million, and $3.65 million in public funds to lead authors, according to EPA public disclosures.

 

The author who received $3.65 million, Charles Driscoll, even admitted to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the result of his study was predetermined, saying “in doing this study we wanted to bring attention to the additional benefits from carbon controls.”

Universities typically received about 50 percent of the money their researchers get in public funds if their investigations find positive results, making them deeply dependent upon federal funding and likely to encourage studies that will come to conclusions the government wants.

Predetermined Outcome

.All you have to do is pay for it.

 

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Caterpillar Warns Of “Economic Weakness Throughout Much Of The World”, Cuts Guidance

As we previewed yesterday when we showed that for 46 consecutive months industrial bellwether Caterpillar has failed to post a retail sales increase…

 

… it should probably not come as a surprise that moments ago CAT not only badly missed revenues, reporting $9.2 billion well below the $9.80 billion expected (courtesy of the usual non-GAAP fudging, CAT managed to “boost” its EPS enough to beat estimates, reporting adjusted earnings of $0.85, above the $0.76 consensus), but it also once again slashed full year guidance, now expecting revenue of $39 billion, and EPS of $3.25 per share excluding restructuring costs, down from the guidance of $40.0 to $40.5 billion and EPS of $3.55 provided just three months ago. 

But it was outgoing CEO Doug Oberhelman’s commentary in the release that was more troubling, to wit:

Economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged.  In North America, the market has an abundance of used construction equipment, rail customers have a substantial number of idle locomotives, and around the world there are a significant number of idle mining trucks.”

“While we are seeing early signals of improvement in some areas, we continue to face a number of challenges.  We remain cautious as we look ahead to 2017, but are hopeful as the year unfolds we will begin to see more positive momentum.  Whether or not that happens, we are continuing to prepare for a better future.  In addition to substantial restructuring and significant cost reduction actions, we’ve kept our focus on customers and on the future by continuing to invest in our digital capabilities, connecting assets and jobsites and developing the next generation of more productive and efficient products”… “Many of our businesses, including mining, oil and gas, rail and construction, are currently operating well below historical replacement demand levels in many parts of the world.”

That said, it was not all gloom:

“there were a few bright spots this quarter.  Both the construction industry and our machine market position improved in China.  Most commodity prices, while low, seem to have stabilized.  Parts sales have increased sequentially in each of the last two quarters.  Our machine market position and quality remain at high levels and our work on Lean and restructuring are continuing to help us lower costs.

Caterpillar’s results are closely followed by investors as the company is viewed as a bellwether of global construction and manufacturing activity.

In pre-market trading, shares of the company were down about 2%. Year-to-date, the stock is up about 25%.

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Largest Dow Component 3M Reports In Line Earnings, Cuts Top End Of Guidance

In what has so far been the busiest day for earnings in the third quarter reporting season, where we got earnings misses from the likes of Eli Lilly (EPS $0.88, Exp. $0.98) and revenue misses from CAT ($9.16bn vs $9.8bn) as well as beats from Merck (EPS $1.07, Exp. $0.98) and GM ($1.72, Exp. $1.44), much of the early attention today was focused on 3M – at least before AAPL’s report after the close – as the conglomerate is the largest component of the Dow Jones.

The company reported in line earnings, with Q3 EPS beating expectations of $2.14 by one cent, with revenues of $7.71 printing on top of consensus estimates as industrials segment sales rose 1% in U.S. The company also reported slightly disappointing capital expenditures of $347 mm vs  est. $357 million, and a 3Q operating margin of 24.7%.

And while the current quarter data was good, 3M confirmed a recurring trend observed among other reporting companies, namely skepticism about the future, when it trimmed the upper end of its full year EPS guidance:

For full-year 2016, 3M updated its forecast for earnings per share to be in the range of $8.15 to $8.20 versus a prior range of $8.15 to $8.30. The company now expects organic local-currency sales growth to be approximately flat versus a previous range of 0 to 1 percent. 3M also updated its tax rate to be approximately 29 percent versus a prior range of 29.0 to 29.5 percent. Lastly, the company continues to expect free cash flow conversion in the range of 95 to 105 percent.

It is this caution about the future that prompted JPM strategists Emmanuel Cau, Mislav Matejka to write in an novernight note that “while we believe that corporates will likely deliver their typical beats of heavily reduced estimates, we think that they will fail to drive upgrades for 4Q and for next year.”

Indeed, as a result of increasingly opaque visibility about the year’s last calendar quarter – much of the result of ongoing FX fluctuations and rising costs due to increasing wages, traders will be careful with trading purely on Q3 earnings as the current quarter may be an inflection point for the recent upward swing in corporate profitability. Add the risk of another rate hike in December, and higher interest costs, as well as declining PE multiples, and the recent thesis that much stronger than expected Q3 earnings which may finally end the 5-quarter long earnings recession will unlock the next move higher in stocks suddenly looks in doubt.

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Horrible PSA: It’s Okay to Bully Kids If Their Parents Didn’t Vote?

VoteSchoolyard bullying: it’s never okay. Unless, of course, the victim is the offspring of a non-voter. Then the kid probably deserves it—or should at least blame his dad for not caring enough about politics.

That’s the confusing message behind a new get-out-the-vote video produced by Civic Innovation Works, a mysterious organization without much of an online presence. The video recently appeared on my News Feed: here it is.

The best part is the bully shouting, “your dad sounds like a total nihilist,” as if that’s some kind of put down. In reality, any politically-informed human being who isn’t flirting with nihilism as a result of the 2016 campaign should have his head checked.

Of course, not voting is a perfectly responsible thing to do, for reasons outlined by Reason Editor in Chief Katherine Mangu-Ward: your vote has virtually no chance of influencing the outcome of a presidential election (even if you live in Florida and are using a time machine to travel back to the year 2000), the time it takes to vote is almost always better spent doing something else (if you value doing something else more than voting), and casting an ill-informed vote is almost certainly worse than not voting at all.

What makes this video so disturbing—and funny, if we’re being honest—is all the other PSAs about how terrible bullying is for kids. There’s something so self-righteous about the act of voting that it causes people to take leave of their senses.

Related: Who Will Get Our Votes? Reason’s 2016 Presidential Poll

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Everything You Need to Know About Operation Cross Country X, the FBI’s Annual ‘Underage Human Trafficking’ Sting, In One Chart

The results have been pouring in from Operation Cross Country X, the FBI’s tenth annual, nationwide sex sting targeting what the agency describes as “underage human trafficking.” Each year, FBI agents across America team up with police officers, sheriff’s deputies, state attorneys, Homeland Security investigators, and others for a few days of posing as people buying or selling sex.

This year, “hundreds of law enforcement officials took part in sting operations in hotels, casinos, truck stops, and other areas frequented by pimps, prostitutes, and their customers,” the FBI reported. Seventy-four FBI-led “Child Exploitation Task Forces” orchestrated operations in 103 U.S. cities, with more than 400 different law-enforcement agencies participating in the October 13-16 efforts. And the payoff? According to the FBI, “82 sexually exploited juveniles” were recovered and “239 pimps and other individuals” arrested. “This is a depressing day in law enforcement,” said FBI Director James Comey, announcing Operation Cross Country 10 (OCCX) results at an International Association of Chiefs of Police gathering last week.

Comey’s right—it is a depressing day in law enforcement. But not for the reasons he would have us believe. What’s depressing is watching authorities congratulate themselves—and the media follow suit—on fighting child sexual-exploitation in America when the bulk of OCCX efforts involved cops contacting adult female sex workers while posing as customers and then arresting them, if not also seizing the women’s money and throwing them in jail. Take a look at just who got caught up in OCCX, by the numbers:

The chart above does not reflect all minors identified or arrests made in OCCX. But of the “more than 400” U.S. law-enforcement agencies that participated, the sample I’m pulling from includes, at my best estimation, 367 of them, including divisions of 12 federal agencies (such as the IRS Criminal Investigations Unit, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and the Drug Enforcement Administration). I compiled it over the past week using information from law-enforcement and media reports. It includes 79 of the FBI’s stated 82 juveniles identified, ecompasses sting efforts in 30 states, and includes many metropolitan areas that are portrayed by police as hubs of human trafficking, including Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle.

Within this sample, nearly three-quarters of all arrests were for simple solicitation or prostitution—that is, men and women trying to participate in consensual commercial sex. Some of the “criminals” the FBI helped take down in this operation included a homeless Wyoming woman who was allegedly selling sex and carrying marijuana and a 61-year-old woman offering sex from an upstate New York hotel room. In El Paso, “about 20 agents and officers with the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations, El Paso Police Department and the Texas Department of Public Safety took part” in a bust that led to the arrest of one 18-year-old woman on charges of fraud, theft, and tampering with government records and one 18-year-old woman for prostitution.

Had the 18-year-old El Paso sex-worker been just slightly younger, the FBI could have added her to its “rescued minors” roster: Anyone under age 18 found to be offering sexual-services for pay is considered a sex-trafficking victim under federal law. It needn’t require the minor to have been abducted, held captive, or coerced into the sex trade; to have a pimp; or to be working with anyone else at all. In most cases, FBI efforts to “rescue” girls starts the same as the process for busting adult women: make contact via online ad and, once a girl or woman meets in person at a hotel and offers sex, detain them. Those neither underage nor claiming to have been trafficked are arrested for prostitution, while juveniles are returned to their parents or placed in state protective custody.

As Sydney Brownstone writes at The Stranger, “no one, including sex worker advocates, wants minors (or anyone) to be abused in the sex trade.” (And just to be clear, no one’s advocating to decriminalize knowingly paying minors for sex.) But “the world of sex work is a lot bigger—and a lot more complex—than projects like [Operation Cross Country] depict. Local sex workers and international organizations like Amnesty International say that decriminalizing sex work, and allowing sex workers to exercise their labor rights, would help prevent exploitation, rape, and other abuses, including abuses of minors.” And even short of decriminalizing adult prostitution, there are better ways to address underage prostitution than the raid-and-rescue model perpetuated here, which tries to address issues of poverty and marginalization by playing heroes and villains.

Regardless how old someone selling sex is or how willing their involvement, anyone accompanying them may be arrested as a “pimp.” In Arkansas, for instance, any men who accompanied adult, female sex workers to OCCX hotel “dates” with undercover cops were arrested for promoting prostitution. In Oklahoma, a man was arrested on federal charges for driving his 18-year-old girlfriend, who was willingly selling sex, across state lines. In Mississippi, a man from out of state who was visiting his 22-year-old daughter was arrested for promoting prostitution because, as Southaven Police Lieutenant Mark Little told Fox 13, he was not forcing his daughter into prostitution but was aware she was doing it. The man’s neighbor back home said he was shocked by the arrest and “Something is wrong. He just went to visit her.”

These are all people the FBI refers to as “pimps,” because pimp is a term vague but sinister enough that most casual observers assume the worst. But just to be perfectly clear, there needn’t be any deception, coercion, force, nor minors involved for someone to be charged with “pimping” or related charges, such as “promoting prostitution” (the most common) or “pandering.” And included in FBI totals for “pimps and other individuals” are some men merely convicted of solicitation of prostitution—that is, responding to someone they thought was an adult sex worker who, in the case of OCCX, was actually an undercover cop.

One might reasonably assume OCCX targeted organized crime networks, transient traffickers, or similarly multi-jurisdictional bad guys, at least. But no—despite the fact that there’s no federal law against prostitution, the biggest part of this FBI-led operation was the arrest of hundreds of individual women (and a few men) on prostitution charges and more than 130 individual men for soliciting sex from adult women. And while there were some cases of genuine exploitation and abuse uncovered, these were few and far between cases of people arrested for trying to participate in a consensual, adult prostitution.

People often say, “if it saves even one child victim, it’s worth it.” But there’s simply no reason why saving said victims requires cops to arrest hundreds of adult women, or even one, for selling sex. We don’t round up and arrest car dealers when there’s an auto thief on the loose.

It wasn’t only sex workers arrested in OCCX without having any relationship to exploited children. In practice, Operation Cross Country serves as a sort of quasi-federal vice sting. This October’s efforts yielded arrests for driving on a suspended license; marijuana, meth, and heroin possession; outstanding warrants unrelated to prostitution; and more. Many of the men arrested—whom news headlines, just to remind you, are describing as child sex traffickers—did nothing more than show up to meet with an undercover cop they thought was an adult sex worker. The following chart gives as detailed an account as I could* muster-up about the “pimps and other individuals,” as well as potential victims, identified by the FBI.

This chart does not include people whom authorities merely caught and either detained or sent a text-message warning to in several sex-worker and “john” stings. The “pie” represented here is people either arrested or counted as victims in the Operation Cross Country X stings I analyzed, a group we will (for lack of better phrasing) refer to to as those who had a significant interaction with OCCX task forces.

So, of the people police had a significant interaction with in this operation, around 7.5 percent were those who could at least legally be classified as “underage human trafficking victims” and around 0.8 percent were potential adult victims of sex trafficking. A little more than half of the people police had significant interactions with were adults, almost exclusively women, who wound up arrested on prostitution charges. The next largest chunk of interactions was with men arrested for trying to pay for sex.

If we zero in on arrests only, adult sex workers and their would-be customers make up around 72 percent of all interactions. Arrests on suspicion of human trafficking make up 1 percent.

In pouring through press releases from FBI field-offices along and all of the local-media accounts of OCCX I could find, I’ve identified approximately:

  • 534 arrests for prostitution
  • 163 arrests for attempting to pay an adult for sex (solicitation)
  • 145 arrests for charges such as pimping, pandering, promoting prostitution, or contributing to the delinquency of a minor
  • 14 arrests for attempting to pay an undercover-cop pretending to be a teenage-girl for sex
  • 10 people arrested on human-trafficking charges
  • 9 people arrested for “keeping a bawdy place,” in conjunction with massage-parlor prostitution businesses in Virginia

Later I’ll post a few more specific tales from the OCCX-stings, along with all the state-specific numbers and links a data nerd (or anyone wanting to fact-check my work) could want about the operation.

* I want to be clear that while I’ve been as careful and thorough as I could in a reasonably quick amount of time, these numbers shouldn’t be taken as anything more than a well-informed estimation of OCCX results. Even if I tallied everything perfectly, my data comes from cross-checking such notoriously vague and unreliable sources as law-enforcement statements and local TV-network reports. In the not-so-distant future, a project I’m working on with the Reason Foundation’s criminal justice reform director should produce some more concrete data.

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