Evil Booze Deflation Got Your Keynesian Spirits Down? Then Rejoice In The Biggest Surge In Beef Prices Since 2003

Remember: deflation is bad, evil, horrible…  except when it involves tumbling crude oil prices: then it is “unambiguously good” for the consumer and a “tax cut.” Which is why we are moritifed to report that for the second month in a row, alcohol prices have dropped, and are down 0.1% from a year ago. Surely, time for more QE to reset US consumer inflation expectations? 

Or maybe not, because if said Keynesian US consumer is drowning his sorrows from declining alcohol prices in, well, alcohol, all shall be well if on the side said consumer orders some steak: with a price increase of 28.6% from a year ago, this is the biggest annual jump in beef prices since 2003.

High fives all around the at the Federal Reserve Bank of Goldman Sachs.




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PPI Slides, Misses Estimates, After Finished Goods Prices Tumble Most Since July 2009

Final Demand Producer Prices fell 0.2% in November, more than the expected 0.1% drop, for the largest wholesale deflation since October 2011. This leads to a 1.4% YoY PPI, the weakest since March and has fallen for 7 straight months. The driver – unsurprisingly – Energy prices fell 3.1% MoM (5th monthly drop in a row) with fuels & lubricants plunging 7.7% MoM and there is more good news – alcohol fell 0.1% YoY for the 2nd month. Beef/Veal prices continue to surge (+28.6% YoY). Core PPI was unchanged on the month, also missing expectations. Prices for finished goods moved down 0.7 percent in November, the largest decrease since a 1.2-percent drop in July 2009, while prices for finished goods ex-food and energy were down -0.1% for the second consecutive month: the longest negative stretch in years.

Biggest deflation since Oct 2011:

 

Finished goods:

The breakdown:

 

And some more details from the report:

The index for final demand goods fell 0.7 percent in November, the fifth consecutive decrease. The broad-based November decline was led by prices for final  demand energy, which dropped 3.1 percent. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy edged down 0.1 percent, and prices for final demand foods fell 0.2 percent.

Product detail: Sixty percent of the November decline in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to the index for gasoline, which dropped 6.3 percent. Prices for dairy products, pork, diesel fuel, residential natural gas, and primary basic organic chemicals also moved lower. Conversely, the index for pharmaceutical preparations increased 1.1 percent. Prices for fresh and dry vegetables and for soybeans also advanced.

The index for final demand services inched up 0.1 percent in November subsequent to a 0.5-percent rise in October. In November, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, as well as margins for final demand trade services, rose 0.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services dropped 0.8 percent.

In November, a 4.0-percent jump in prices for loan services (partial) led the increase in the index for final demand services. Margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling, food wholesaling, and food and alcohol retailing, as well as prices for bundled wired telecommunications access services, also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services moved down 1.9 percent. The indexes for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; and securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice also decreased.

Prices for finished goods moved down 0.7 percent in November, the largest decrease since a 1.2-percent drop in July 2009. (The finished goods index represents about two-thirds of final demand goods, through the exclusion of the weight for government purchases and exports. The finished goods index represents about one-quarter of overall final demand.) The November decline was led by the index for finished consumer energy goods, which dropped 2.7 percent. The index for finished consumer foods fell 0.5 percent. In contrast, prices for finished goods less foods and energy edged up 0.1 percent. Within finished goods, falling prices for gasoline, dairy products, pork, residential natural gas, light motor trucks, and fresh fruits and melons outweighed rising prices for pharmaceutical  preparations, fresh and dry vegetables, and beef and veal.




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Kurt Loder Reviews Exodus: Gods and Kings

ExodusRidley Scott has been getting a lot of stick
lately for his ethnically incorrect casting of Exodus:
Gods and Kings
. But that’s not the movie’s real problem,
writes Kurt Loder.

The story is so familiar that cynics might wonder why a pressing
need was felt to retell it. It’s set in 1300 BC, in the Egyptian
capital of Memphis, and recounts the life of Moses (Christian
Bale), a Hebrew foundling unwittingly adopted as a baby by the
Pharaoh Seti (John Turturro), who raises him alongside his
biological son, Ramses (Joel Edgerton).

The actors are famously talented, and they engage with their
characters as best they can. But their performance styles are at
odds throughout, and the story’s overtones of Sunday-school
pageantry are hard to dispel (at some points, everyone seems to be
playing dress-up). 

View this article.

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A.M. Links: House Passes $1+ Trillion Spending Bill, Police Shut Down Hong Kong Protests, Scientists May Have Found Evidence of Dark Matter

  • AndromedaThe
    House of Representatives
    approved a trillion dollar spending
    bill now headed to the Senate.
  • Police in
    Hong Kong
    cleared the last of the camp sites being used by
    pro-democracy protesters, who nevertheless promised to come
    back.
  • Former Republican presidential candidate
    Mitt Romney
    is reportedly now interested in running again. He
    probably has a better chance of winning the Democratic
    nomination.
  • Snow, rain, and wind is hitting
    California
    in the worst storm the drought-stricken state’s seen
    in years.
  • Mark Zuckerberg says he’s considering something like a
    “dislike” button for
    Facebook
    , but not to disagree with what people have to say
    because, he says, that would be bad.
  • Scientists have identified signals from the
    Andromeda Galaxy
    that may be evidence for the existence of dark
    matter.

Follow Reason and Reason 24/7 on
Twitter, and like us on Facebook. You
can also get the top stories mailed to you—sign up
here
.

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Goldman Warns Greeks Of “Cyprus-Style Prolonged Bank Holiday” If They “Vote Wrong”

Funny what a difference two months make. Back on October 4, we wrote “Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns” and… nobody cared as the Greek stock market meltup continued. Now, after the biggest three-day rout in Greek stock market history (or about 30% lower), and with the overhyped, oversold, oversusbcribed recent Greek 5 Year bond issue available in the open market some 16 points lower, and suddenly everyone cares. Including Goldman Sachs.

Overnight the bank with the $58 trillion in derivative exposure issued a note “From GRecovery to GRelapse” which is quite absent on the usual optimism, cheerfulness and happy-ending we have grown to expect from the bank whose former employee is in charge of the European printing press. Here is the punchline: “In the event of a severe Greek government clash with international lenders, interruption of liquidity provision to Greek banks by the ECB could potentially even lead to a Cyprus-style prolonged “bank holiday”. And market fears for potential Euro-exit risks could rise at that point.

Dear Greeks, “don’t vote wrong” as EU’s Juncker urges you – you have been warned.

Here is the full note.

Why Have Greek Assets Tumbled?

Over the last three months, Greek assets have come under intense selling pressure. The 10y Greek government bond trades at a yield of 9.1% compared to 5.5% in September and the Athens stock exchange is trading 32% lower over the same time-frame (and 40% below the post-crisis peak). As we have written extensively, this deterioration in market conditions has taken place despite an ongoing improvement in macroeconomic indicators. Markets have sold off on the back of election uncertainty ahead of a key year for Greece’s recovery process.

Greece needs official sector funding to pass the 2015 funding hump and ensure financial stability.

Indeed 2015 is a pivotal year for Greece. The most recent growth data prints suggest that the recovery may be gaining momentum. But financial risks still lurk, which could destabilize the Greek economy back into recession. More specifically, 2015 is the last year the government faces large financing needs, nearing €24bn (net of the established primary surplus). Part of those needs may be covered with domestic resources (see Box 1). However, additional funds will likely be required to ensure the government is able to meet its liabilities. As discussed in Box 1, the additional funds required may range between €6bn and €15bn depending on different economic assumptions.

It is important to note that from 2016 onwards, overall financing needs become a lot more manageable (compared to €24bn in 2015) – at or below €10bn until 2022 (lower primary surpluses or higher bond yields than the ones provisioned in the program could push these calculations up somewhat).

With government bond yields at prohibitively high levels, the Greek government will require official sector financing to provide the additional funds for 2015. €7.1bn of IMF funds are currently available as part of the Greek assistance program under relevant conditionality. In addition, the Eurogroup decided on Monday to grant Greece a precautionary credit line (ECCL) provided Greece completes the ongoing review by end of February. There are three main items to be agreed on for the current review to reach a conclusion: a) further reform in labor markets and in union legislation, b) further pension system reform, and c) further budget cuts. Greece is also likely stay under close economic supervision thereafter.

Political complications arise with the presidential vote.

According to the Greek constitution, the parliament needs to elect a President of the Hellenic Republic every five years. The presidential vote requires an extended majority. The term of the incumbent, President Karolos Papoulias, ends in early March 2015. The parliament would need to start the process of electing a new president at least one month in advance – by early February the latest. Should the parliament fail to elect a president, general elections would need to be held.

Due to a tight timeframe between the new deadline for completion of the program review and the deadline for the presidential election, the government decided to speed up the voting process. Three votes will take place – first two on the 17th and the 23rd of December respectively. The first two votes require a majority of 200 votes, which is unlikely to be achieved given the current parliamentary balances. The one that essentially matters is the third and final one on the 29th of December, where the Greek government would need to find 180 votes in the current parliament (of 300 members) to back their presidential candidate. As things stand, the government majority does not suffice to elect a president and avoid elections. 25 independent MPs and MPs from small parties would need to consent to meet the tally.

In the event that the parliament elects a president, the government and the troika will likely resume negotiations and an agreement is likely to be found. Financial risks would decline and Greek assets would likely rally.

In the event that the parliament fails to elect a president, general elections would be held and market uncertainty/pressures would extend. At this stage it is important to understand that market pressures are not linked to the democratic process of elections nor to a potential government change, whatever the ensuing government formation may be. They are linked to the risk of policy discontinuity and a severe clash between Greece and international lenders. More specifically, we think the room for Greece to meaningfully backtrack from the reforms that have already been implemented is very limited. Any such attempt would lead to an interruption of official financing to Greece.

Examining the downside scenario.

To be sure, even in the event of a government change, there is room for a cooperative solution between Greece and Europe. Greece has made significant reform progress between 2012 and the gap between what has already been implemented and what remains to be done is not insurmountable.

Also, the incentives for a clash are not there. For instance any Greek government would likely want to capitalize on the momentum that the economy is building on the activity front, rather than trigger a disruptive capital flight that would lead Greece to a double–dip recession. In addition, given that more than 80% of Greek debt is held by the official sector and given that any OSI would be feasible only as part of an agreement with the Euro-area, there is an incentive for a Greek government to pursue cooperative solutions.

However, the history of the Euro-area crisis has shown that the probability of an “accident” can never be dismissed, when it comes to intra-EMU politics. And it is important for markets to be able to understand and quantify the aspects of a potential downside scenario, where official financing to Greece is interrupted.
The Biggest Risk is an Interruption of the Funding of Greek Banks by The ECB.

Pressing as the government refinancing schedule may look on the surface, it is unlikely to become a real issue as long as the ECB stands behind the Greek banking system. In fact, refinancing became a lot more pressing between 2011 and 2012. But financing needs were met despite the impasse in negotiations between Greece and international lenders – partly via the issuance of T-bills repoable at the ECB by Greek banks. Such methods can always be revisited at times of extreme need.

But herein lies the main risk for Greece. The economy needs the only lender of last resort to the banking system to maintain ample provision of liquidity. And this is not just because banks may require resources to help reduce future refinancing risks for the sovereign. But also because banks are already reliant on government issued or government guaranteed securities to maintain the current levels of liquidity constant.

And this risk can become more pressing from a timing perspective. At the heat of the Greek crisis, there was evident deposit and broader capital flight, which Greek banks helped accommodate with ECB’s help via the ELA facility. In the event of a severe Greek government clash with international lenders, interruption of liquidity provision to Greek banks by the ECB could potentially even lead to a Cyprus-style prolonged “bank holiday”. And market fears for potential Euro-exit risks could rise at that point.

Will European assets be affected?

Outside the spectrum of Greek assets, the main question becomes whether Euro-area assets (such as peripheral bonds, the EUR etc) as well as global assets (equities) are likely to be affected by the Greek crisis. We think this is unlikely. Should financial pressures from a Greece related shock hit the peripheral countries formerly in a program (Ireland & Portugal), there may be special arrangements to avert the transmission of the shock locally. Moreover, in our view, the ECB is likely to engage in outright market purchases of sovereign debt securities as part of their monetary policy operations in H12015. We do not think that the volatility from Greece is likely to derail the QE decision.

There is of course the risk of broader contagion, should the participation of Greece in EMU once again be put in doubt. But we think this is a low probability event as the majority of the Greek population is still in favor of EMU participation and as all major political parties in Greece currently deem Euro-exit as undesirable.




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If You Care About Internet Freedom, Read About Ross Ulbricht’s Silk Road Trial NOW

Delayed since November, the trial of Ross Ulbricht, the former
Eagle Scout who stands accused of running the “dark Web” site Silk
Road, is scheduled to begin on January 5, 2015.

You remember Silk Road, right, which seemed like something out
of a William Gibson or Neal Stephenson novel? Operated by the
pseudonymous “Dread
Pirate Roberts
,” it was the “Amazon.com for drugs” and other
illegal substances and activities, a Bitcoin-driven den of thieves,
murderers, and worse. Or maybe not;
read Brian Doherty’s recent Reason mag feature on it
.

Whatever you think about all that, Ulbricht’s
trial is about more than the feds shutting down a site that allowed
people to buy and sell drugs. It intersects with all sorts of
issues related to state surveillance, burden of proof, and whether
ISPs and marketplace sites can be held liable for the actions of
users. Watch the interview above with Ulbricht’s mother, Lynn, who
is a powerful explicator of the larger issues at stake in this
case. Full disclosure: I’ve given $100 to Ulbricht’s defense fund
because I want to see a full airing of those issues. We live in an
age where government surveillance is, in my opinion, largely out of
control and unchecked. For all the good they do, federal law
enforcement and intelligence agencies such as the FBI, the CIA, and
the NSA have proven track records of vastly exceeding the scope of
their powers and the executive branch often seems to be egging them
on. Let’s get as much of this out in the open as we possibly
can. 

For more information on the case and Ulbricht, go to Free Ross UlbrichtFrom its
pages:

By its own admission, the FBI has no documentation of how they
found the Silk Road server, which comprises the bulk of their
evidence.  Without forensic documentation there is no
guarantee that the evidence is valid or even that it wasn’t
fabricated. The explanation of how the FBI found the server has
been widely criticized by technical and security experts,
one calling it “inconsistent with reality”; another “impossible“; and another a lie and gibberish.

Ross has been arraigned in New York on a superseding indictment.
He is pleading not guilty to all charges: narcotics trafficking;
computer hacking; money laundering; engaging in a criminal
enterprise; and conspiracy to traffic in fraudulent IDs. Ross’
family and friends believe he is falsely accused and  innocent of the charges.

The case is scheduled to be tried beginning January 5,
2015 in Judge Katherine Forrest’s courtroom, #15A,
 Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Courthouse, 500 Pearl St., New York, NY.

Although initially alleged to have planned six murders, Ross was
never indicted in New York for any.

That last point is kind of amazing, since you’d think alleged
hits would play a starring role in the federal prosecution.
Certainly, it’s the murder-for-hire charges that have driven the
press attention, from The New York Times Magazine’s blockbuster
story on the case from January 2014 (“Eagle
Scout. Idealist. Drug Trafficker?
“) to stories about the
upcoming trial. Consider this lede from
a Bloomberg news piece
:

Ross Ulbricht, the alleged mastermind of the $1.2 billion online
“black-market bazaar” known as Silk Road, attempted to arrange the
murders of at least six people including a worker he believed had
stolen $350,000 in bitcoins from him, the U.S. said.

While the murder-for-hire plots aren’t part of the government’s
indictment of Ulbricht, federal prosecutors in New York are
seeking to use them as evidence against him at his trial set to
begin Jan. 5. The alleged schemes support the government’s argument
that Ulbricht conspired to protect the criminal enterprise,
prosecutors said yesterday in a court filing.

So the feds want people to know that Ulbricht is a deranged
would-be murderer as his trial begins. They just don’t want to, you
know, substantiate the charges. It’s a classic legal ploy and it
was the murder charges more than anything else that kept Ulbricht
behind bars while awaiting trial.


Reason on Silk Road.

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Presenting The $303 Trillion In Derivatives That US Taxpayers Are Now On The Hook For

Courtesy of the Cronybus(sic) last minute passage, government was provided a quid-pro-quo $1.1 trillion spending allowance with Wall Street’s blessing in exchange for assuring banks that taxpayers would be on the hook for yet another bailout, as a result of the swaps push-out provision, after incorporating explicit Citigroup language that allows financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, explicitly putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by these contracts. Recall:

Five years after the Wall Street coup of 2008, it appears the U.S. House of Representatives is as bought and paid for as ever. We heard about the Citigroup crafted legislation currently being pushed through Congress back in May when Mother Jones reported on it. Fortunately, they included the following image in their article:

 

Screen Shot 2014-12-05 at 3.32.12 PM

 

 

Unsurprisingly, the main backer of the bill is notorious Wall Street lackey Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a former Goldman Sachs employee who has discovered lobbyist payoffs can be just as lucrative as a career in financial services. 

We say explicitly, of course, because taxpayers have always been on the hook implicitly for the next Wall Street meltdown.

Why?

Exhibit A: US banks are the proud owners of $303 trillion in derivatives (and spare us the whole “but.. but… net exposure” cluelessness – read here why that is absolutely irrelevant when even one counterpaty fails):

 

Exhibit B: Here are the four banks that are in complete control of the US “republic.”

At least we now know with certainty that to a clear majority in Congress – one consisting of republicans and democrats – the future viability of Wall Street is far more important than the well-being of their constituents. Which also, implicitly, was made clear when Hank Paulson was waving a three-page “blank check” term sheet, and when Congress voted through the biggest bailout of banks in US history back in 2008.

The only question is when the next multi-trillion (or perhaps quadrillion now that all global central banks are all in?) bailout takes place.

Source: OCC




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Frontrunning: December 12

  • Oil slide hits European stocks, safe-haven assets sought (Reuters)
  • IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast for 4th Time in Five Months (BBG)
  • Cue constant pro-Abe propaganda out of Japan: Japan’s Secrecy Law Takes Effect as Abe Seeks Fair Vote Coverage (BBG)
  • As if it has a choice: Japan’s GPIF Bets on Abenomics-Driven Recovery (WSJ)
  • Heather Capital: How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared (WSJ)
  • Senate Panel Votes to Authorize U.S. War on Islamic State (BBG)
  • Japan’s 28 IPOs in 11 Days Give Abe a Lift as Startups Boom (BBG)
  • U.S. authorities face new fallout from insider trading ruling (Reuters)
  • Greek Stock Rout Means ASE Is 2014 Worst After Russia (BBG)
  • Torture, deny, repeat: ‘Enhanced interrogation’ never works, the CIA never learns (Reuters)
  • Banks Fined Over Pursuit of Work on Toys ‘R’ Us IPO (WSJ)
  • Kids Picking Colleges Now Look at Cost, Location — and Sexual Assaults (BBG)
  • This Hedge Fund’s Machines Are Making the Right Calls on Oil (BBG)
  • Activists Seek More Public Input in Fed President Picks (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The House narrowly passed Thursday a $1.1 trillion spending bill funding the government through September 2015, avoiding a government shutdown just hours before the midnight deadline. (http://on.wsj.com/1BCv50W)

* CIA Director John Brennan acknowledged some of the agency’s officers had used “abhorrent” interrogation techniques on detainees, but forcefully challenged the conclusions of a Senate panel report. (http://on.wsj.com/1AoKT3q)

* American retailers are getting a gift just in time for the holidays: a sharp drop in gasoline prices that is delivering a welcome boost to the pocketbooks of U.S. consumers. (http://on.wsj.com/1snk5wg)

* U.S. families’ debt burdens have settled at their lowest level in over a decade, putting the economy on a stronger footing relative to global rivals going into 2015. (http://on.wsj.com/12B4hPJ)

* Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc and eight other securities firms were fined a total of $43.5 million by regulators who said the companies offered favorable stock research in hopes of winning underwriting business in an initial public offering by Toys “R” Us Inc. (http://on.wsj.com/16dxUIV)

* Construction company SNC-Lavalin Group will recover $13.3 million as part of a plea agreement in a probe tied to the family of former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. (http://on.wsj.com/1zXbRPK)

* Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s regulator ordered the companies to begin to make payments to affordable-housing funds next year, a move that will please low-income-housing supporters who have urged the decision for years while triggering the ire of some who think it will increase taxpayer risk. (http://on.wsj.com/1DkYNt8)

* Halliburton Co, the world’s second-largest oilfield-services company, said Thursday it will lay off 1,000 employees outside the United States. (http://on.wsj.com/13fbAO1)

 

FT

* Commerzbank AG is in talks with U.S. authorities to resolve allegations which accuses the bank of breaking anti-money laundering and sanctions laws. The talks involve a payment of more than $1 billion in fines – at least $400 million more than previously thought.

* Germany’s supreme court ruled that Deutsche Telekom had misled potential shareholders over its flotation prospectus, a move that was welcomed by the lawyers representing investors who are seeking 80 million euros in compensation.

* Airbus Group shares fell for a second day as the company tried to reassure its investors about the future of the A380 project and the groups financial prospects in the medium and long term period.

* Norway’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and said it could ease policy further because lower oil prices are hurting the economy’s growth prospects.

 

NYT

* Google Inc plans to shut its Google News product in Spain in protest of a new law that would force the company and other news aggregators to pay Spanish publishers for the use of their content. (http://nyti.ms/13fbiH4)

* Mary Jo White, the chairwoman of the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday, said the agency was undertaking a comprehensive review of the mutual fund sector. One of the review’s major objectives is to assess whether some mutual funds are loading up on investments that would take too long to unwind. (http://nyti.ms/1GrtXeF)

* Regulators in Chicago have approved a plan to create one or more applications that would allow users to hail taxis from any operators in the city, using a smartphone. In New York, a City Council member proposed a similar app on Monday that would let residents “e-hail” any of the 20,000 cabs that circulate in the city on a daily basis. (http://nyti.ms/1sifNM5)

* Embarrassing, racially tinged emails about U.S. president Barack Obama’s imagined movie tastes, posted online by hackers and reported by news sites, prompted public apologies on Thursday from Sony Pictures Entertainment’s movie chief and one of its top producers. (http://nyti.ms/1zckeaQ)

* DreamWorks Animation may have had some trouble with potential deals that leaked before completion, but the company struck one on Thursday involving AwesomenessTV, an online media company. The Hollywood studio said it sold a 25 percent stake in the venture to Hearst for $81.25 million. (http://nyti.ms/1siaX1y)

* The European Union antitrust authority sent questionnaires this month to companies in areas like online mapping and travel as part of its long-running investigation into Google Inc’s business practices. (http://nyti.ms/12B2TwC)

 

China

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– One of China’s key commodities exchanges will start a night trading trial from Friday. The trial in the northern Chinese city of Zhengzhou will initially include white sugar, cotton, methanol, rape seed and petrol-based chemical PTA, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said.

SECURITIES TIMES

– Profits in China’s steel industry are expected to reach over 28 billion yuan ($4.52 billion) this year, the China Iron and Steel Association said.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China’s securities regulator will check the margin trading businesses of a total of 40 brokerages to probe for any irregularities, several brokerage sources told the newspaper.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– China’s consumer watchdog received more than 1,400 complaints in the second half of November after the Singles Day shopping spree on Nov. 11. Consumers complained about bogus discounts and poor after-sales service.

CHINA DAILY

– China is investigating 31 officials for involvement in three coal mine accidents dating back to 2009 that were either hidden or falsely reported, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate said on Thursday.

Britain

* BANK OF ENGLAND TO BE MORE OPEN AS IT OVERHAULS MPC MEETINGS

Decisions on interest rates will be made just eight times a year from 2016 after the Bank of England proposed the biggest shake-up of monetary policy arrangements since it gained independence in 1997. Under plans unveiled today, the Bank will ditch four of the monetary policy committee’s monthly votes and replace them with non-voting meetings with the financial policy committee, which oversees financial stability. (http://thetim.es/1vHN6CM)

* STANDARD CHARTERED ACTS TO COMBAT FINANCIAL CRIME

Standard Chartered Plc has formed a top-level group to combat financial crime, as the bank attempts to prove to U.S. regulators that it is taking drastic action to prevent a repeat of its money-laundering and sanctions-busting scandals. (http://thetim.es/1wkGhuK)

The Guardian

* Orange Wednesdays to be phased out in 2015

EE has announced it is to scrap its once popular cinema deal – Orange Wednesdays – that gave mobile customers two cinema tickets each week for the price of one. The deal is being axed after the final showing on the last Wednesday of February 2015. (http://bit.ly/1zVLj1f)

* UK standard of living rises to fourth highest in EU

The UK’s standard of living has climbed to the joint fourth-highest within the European Union, overtaking the Netherlands and significantly ahead of France, Italy and Spain, according to official figures compiled by Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU. (http://bit.ly/1sg66xK)

The Telegraph

* Telefonica chairman flies in in bid to sell O2 to BT

The chairman of Telefonica SA flew into London on Thursday to try to seal a deal over the weekend for BT Group to buy his company’s British mobile operator, O2, rather than its rival EE. (http://bit.ly/1DiWqHp)

* Barclays ‘may have automated currency rigging’

Barclays Plc and Deutsche Bank AG may have programmed automated trading platforms to systematically rig the currency markets, a U.S. regulator has alleged. (http://bit.ly/1BBJivf)

Sky News

* MPs Summon FCA Bosses Over Insurance Probe

Two British financial watchdog executives who were criticised on Wednesday over the disclosure of a probe into the insurance industry are expected to give evidence on the crisis to a powerful panel of MPs. (http://bit.ly/1wkIaaQ)

* Costa Full Of Beans As Coffee Sales Climb

The owner of the Costa coffee chain has seen its total sales rise by 17 percent in the three months to Nov.27. Whitbread said that it now remains confident of delivering full-year results in line with expectations, with chief executive Andy Harrison describing it as “strong trading momentum”. (http://bit.ly/1smOSZY) The Independent

* Google News to close down in Spain

Google News will no longer operate in Spain – ahead of a new law requiring the internet search company to pay Spanish news organisations for linked content or snippets of news. The move marks the first time globally that Google Inc will shut down its news service and comes in response a new Spanish intellectual property law going into effect on Jan.1, dubbed the Google Tax. (http://ind.pn/1yECD27)

* Aston Martin ‘selling bonds’ to expand super premium car range

Aston Martin is looking to raise more than 100 million pounds from investors to expand its range of luxury sedans, hybrid models and crossover SUVs. (http://ind.pn/1zDc24D)

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Producer price index for November at 8:30–consensus down 0.1%
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December at 9:55–consensus 89.5

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Avery Dennison (AVY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka
CyrusOne (CONE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
DTE Energy (DTE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Empire State Realty (ESRT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Freescale (FSL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein
GoPro (GPRO) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
JMP Group (JMP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Lazard (LAZ) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette

Downgrades

Discovery (DISCA) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan
Hain Celestial (HAIN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Mindray Medical (MR) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Oracle (ORCL) resumed with a Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
VMware (VMW) resumed with an Underweight from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Zayo Group (ZAYO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG

Initiations

Alnylam (ALNY) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Arctic Cat (ACAT) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush
Arista Networks (ANET) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Boston Properties (BXP) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Brandywine Realty (BDN) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Brunswick (BC) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
CACI (CACI) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup
CMS Energy (CMS) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Citrix (CTXS) initiated with an Underweight at Piper Jaffray
Douglas Emmett (DEI) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
First Potomac (FPO) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Harley-Davidson (HOG) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
Highwoods Properties (HIW) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
Hudson Pacific (HPP) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
Kilroy Realty (KRC) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Leidos (LDOS) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
MarineMax (HZO) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush
Microsoft (MSFT) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
NetSuite (N) resumed with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Parkway Properties (PKY) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
Piedmont Office Realty (PDM) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
Polaris Industries (PII) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
Red Hat (RHT) resumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
SAIC (SAIC) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup
Salesforce.com (CRM) resumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
ServiceNow (NOW) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Sonus (SONS) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley
Splunk (SPLK) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Workday (WDAY) resumed with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray

COMPANY NEWS
A.H. Belo (AHC) announces special cash dividend of $2.25 per share
Adobe (ADBE) to acquire Fotolia for approximately $800 in cash
Amgen (AMGN), AstraZeneca to present results from Phase 3 plaque psoriasis study
BancorpSouth (BXS) authorizes stock repurchase program up to 6% of outstanding stock
ChemoCentryx (CCXI) reports Phase II nephropathy with CCX140 trial met primary endpoint
Dominion Diamond (DDC) intents to initiate a dividend in April
Edison International (EIX) raises common stock dividend 17.6% to 41.75c
Elliott Associates reports 6.8% stake in Family Dollar (FDO)
Hyatt Hotels (H) increases share repurchase authorization by $400M
KKR (KKR) to sell Fotolia to Adobe for $800M
Lamar Advertising (LAMR) announces $250M stock repurchase program
Lamar Advertising (LAMR) raises quarterly dividend to 84c per share
Liquid Holdings (LIQD) adopts stockholders rights plan
MetLife (MET) announces new $1B share repurchase authorization
Nektar (NKTR) reports data from Phase 3 BEACON study of NKTR-102
Priceline (PCLN) becomes first online travel agency to integrate Apple PayApple
Qualcomm (QCOM) commits to invest $40M into Chinese companies
Republic Airways (RJET) to expand partnership with Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Roche (RHHBY) announces retirement of Genentech research head
SeaWorld (SEAS) says new restructuring program to include job cuts
Tesla (TSLA) announces resignation of China President Veronica Wu
Windstream (WIN) appoints Tony Thomas as CEO

EARNINGS
Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Dominion Diamond (DDC), Nordson (NDSN), EMCORE (EMKR), Adobe (ADBE)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Dominion Diamond (DDC), Sonic Foundry (SOFO), Quiksilver (ZQK), Esterline (ESL)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Nordson (NDSN), ARI Network (ARIS)

Centene (CNC) sees FY15 EPS $5.05-$5.35, consensus $4.92
United Technologies (UTX) sees FY15 EPS $7.00-$7.20, consensus $7.27
Nordson (NDSN) sees Q1 EPS 60c-70c, consensus 73c
Adobe (ADBE) sees FY15 adjusted EPS $2.05, consensus $2.07
Adobe (ADBE) sees Q1 adjusted EPS 34c-40c, consensus 39c
Quiksilver (ZQK) sees FY15 revenues $1.48B-$1.55B, consensus $1.62B

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES
Apple (AAPL) online store begins accepting PayPal, Re/code reports
Baidu (BIDU) to take stake in Uber, WSJ reports
Danone (DANOY) to keep Medical Nutrition business, Reuters reports
Eni SpA (E) to suspend efforts to unload stake in oil services unit, NY Times says
Google (GOOG) to shut down engineering operations in Russia, The Information reports
Micron (MU) in talks to revise supply agreement with Inotera, DigiTimes reports
Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox One outsells Sony PS4, Engadget reports
November new video game sales up 14% from last year, Game Informer says
Staples (SPLS), Office Depot both look like ‘buys’, Barron’s says
Time Warner (TWX) CEO talks potential mergers in media space, NY Post reports

SYNDICATE
ARAMARK (ARMK) 30M share Secondary priced at $28.00
Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) files to sell 3.4M common shares of beneficial interest
Alphatec (ATEC) files to sell 1.2M shares for holders
Avolon Holdings (AVOL) 13.636M share IPO priced at $20.00
Connecture (CNXR) 6.64M share IPO priced at $8.00
Flexion (FLXN) 5.04M share Secondary priced at $17.00
Green Dot (GDOT) files to sell 6.13M shares for holders
Hortonworks (HDP) 6.25M share IPO priced at $16.00
ImmunoCellular (IMUC) files to sell $20M shares and warrants
James River Group (JRVR) 11M share IPO priced at $21.00
Metaldyne Performance (MPG) 10M share IPO priced at $15.00
Workiva (WK) 7.2M share IPO priced at $14.00




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Thailand Police Target Tourists When They Need Cash Now

Police in Bangkok are ramping up their harassment
of tourists, demanding identification, performing strip searches,
taking urine samples, and, naturally, collecting fines, according
to anecdotes from tourists and locals showing up in the
English-language press in Thailand.

Asian Correspondent
reports
that fines levied include $152 for failure to produce
identification and $61 for smoking in most public areas or dropping
your butt on the ground, all payable on the spot in cash.

What might be the cause of this frenzy of action? Asian
Correspondent
speculates:

The jurisdiction of the Thong Lor police department includes
many of the venues that formerly opened until the early hours.
Since the coup these
venues have been closing at their legally required time, and this
presumably means less kickbacks to the police. Could these
shakedowns be a way to make up the deficit? Could they be a way to
build up a kitty for the Thong Lor police department’s New Year
party by targeting foreigners who do not have the contact
networking to oppose them? Could they have something to do with the
recent police
purge
? Or could this just be rogue officers besmirching the
good name of the Thong Lor police department?

It’s always possible it’s just a few bad apples isn’t it?

Asian Correspondent suggests tourists contact their
local embassies after being targeted by police, and reports that
the British ambassador says he
brought the issue up with the Minister of Tourism but that the
minister denied any “campaign” by police.

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