Five Guantanamo Detainees to be Released; 143 Still Being Held

Five detainees are to be
released from the Guantanamo Bay military prison. The detainees
were “approved
for transfer
” after a comprehensive review of their case was
conducted by an interagency government task force, set up following
President Barack Obama’s 2009
executive order to close the facility
.  

The release of these men is a victory for habeas corpus and the
rule of law. They were never charged, much less convicted of any
crimes, and their release is completely appropriate.

Unfortunately, despite five years having passed since Obama
signed that executive order, 143 detainees will remain at
Guantanamo. They are all being held without trial, in
violation
of both U.S. law and the Geneva Convention.
 

The Obama administration has previously
blamed
the delay in closing Guantanamo on congressional
opposition and a “difficulty of deciding what to do with the
remaining 200 or so detainees.”

The first excuse would be more believable if Obama had not
completely abandoned the pro-civil liberties platform he campaigned
on after assuming office. Among other things, he signed a law
allowing for the indefinite detention of U.S. citizens without
trial. As Sheldon Richman
explained in 2011
:

Obama’s intention to sign the NDAA tells us exactly where he
stands on the Bill of Rights. As Human Rights Watch put it:
“President Obama will go down in history as the president who
enshrined indefinite detention without trial in US law.”

The administration may well be having a difficult time deciding
what to do with the detainees they do not have enough evidence to
prosecute, but who have nonetheless been deemed too dangerous to
release. However, holding them indefinitely shows a profound lack
of respect for due process. In the words of
Reason’s Jacob Sullum
:

How “meaningful” can such due process rights be when a
conviction is the only outcome the government plans to respect?

America should stand for more than just opposition to terrorism.
It should stand for the values of freedom and the rule of law that
it was founded on. Indefinite detention without trial stands in
stark conflict with these values.

Need a refresher on the situation at Guantanamo? Check out this
Reason TV video on the topic:

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If You Like Your Obamacare Health Plan, You Can Keep It, If HHS Doesn’t Pick a New One For You

Here’s a Friday Obamacare news-dump for you: In a
300-page regulatory
proposal
released late this afternoon, the
Department of Health and Human Services announced that it is
considering changing Obamacare’s auto-renewal rules so that, within
the health law’s exchanges, instead of being automatically renewed
into your current health plan, you’d be moved into the lowest cost
plan from the same service tier. 

From the
attached fact sheet

Under current rules, consumers who do not take action
during the openenrollment window are re-enrolled in the same plan
they were in the previous year, even if that plan experienced
significant premium increases. We are considering alternative
options for re-enrollment, under which consumers who take no
action might be defaulted into a lower cost plan rather than
their current plan.

States running their own exchanges could start doing this in
2016, and federal exchanges could start in 2017. 

Basically, if you like your plan, but don’t go out of your way
to intentionally re-enroll, the kind and wise folks at HHS or state
health exchanges might just pick a new plan—perhaps with different
doctors, clinics, cost structures, and benefit options—for you. And
if you want to switch back? Good luck once open enrollment is
closed. There’s always next year. 

A hassle? Maybe. But have faith: They know what’s
best. 

Presumably the idea came up because, even though by some
measures premiums aren’t rising by large amounts this year,
premiums for many of the lowest cost and most popular plans from
last year are rising quite a bit. And since HHS decided over the
summer to institute auto-renewal, and since the majority of
Obamacare enrollees are expected to take no action and thus stay in
their current plans, the reality is that under the current system a
lot of enrollees are likely to see large premium hikes, just
because they didn’t shop around for a new plan.

This sort of problem was more or less inevitable with automatic
renewal, which was probably instituted as a way to shore up
enrollment and prevent too much attrition in year two. The easy an
straightforward way to fix it would be to turn auto renewal off, or
at least turn it off for any consumer that doesn’t opt in. But that
might result in lower enrollment. And why go the obvious route when
there’s the possibility of having federal and state health
bureaucrats make even more choices for you? 

This isn’t an actual rule yet; it’s just a proposed rule. But
the fact that Obamacare’s overseers are thinking like this says a
lot—about their government-knows-best bureaucratic mentality and
about the complications of the law itself. 

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What Record Stock Buybacks Say About Economic Growth

For all the obfuscation surrounding the topic of stock buybacks and corporations returning record amounts of cash to their shareholders, the bottom line is as simple as it gets.

This is what you are taught in CFO 101 class:

  1. if you see organic growth opportunities for your business, or if you want to maintain the asset quality generating your cash flows, you invest in (either maintenance or growth) capex.
  2. if there are no such opportunities, you return cash to investors (or, maybe spend a little on M&A unless you are Valeant in which case you spend everything and then much more).

That’s it.

Well, based on this shocking chart from the FT’s John Authers, does it seem that America’s corporations who are returning over a record 90% of Net Income to shareholders – are seeing (m)any growth opportunities?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qJKKYZ Tyler Durden

Judge Strikes Down Reform of Illinois’ Extremely Screwed Up Public Pensions

"Pull out a fork and a knife and dig in, guys!"The public employee pension
system in Illinois is an absolute disaster. It’s objectively in the
worst state in the whole country. According to a
recent analysis
by non-profit State Budget Solutions, it’s at
or near the top of several different lists for underfunding. Its
liabilities are worth more than $300 billion, and the pensions are
only 22 percent funded, leaving each resident of the state on the
hook for $25,000 in potential debt if the funds miss their targets.
Employees barely contribute to their own pensions and the state has
also frequently skipped its own payments.

The state managed to push through some extremely modest pension
reforms last year after a lot of wrangling and hand-wringing. It
froze cost-of-living increases, raised the retirement age, and
capped the maximum salary used to determine pensions. But employee
unions have fought it, and today they were handed a victory. A
judge ruled the reforms violate the state’s constitution.
From Reuters
:

Sangamon County Circuit Court Judge John Belz, who heard oral
arguments for and against the state’s pension reform law on
Thursday, ruled that the law both diminishes and impairs retirement
benefits for public sector workers in violation of a state
constitution provision. The judge rejected the state’s argument
that its ability to invoke its sovereign powers in an emergency
trumps protections in the state constitution for pensions.

“In summary, the state of Illinois made a constitutionally
protected promise to its employees concerning their pension
benefits,” Belz’s ruling stated. “Under established and
uncontroverted Illinois law, the state of Illinois cannot break
this promise.”

The matter may now head to the Illinois Supreme Court. Read more
about the sorry state of Illinois’ pensions
here
at Illinois Policy.

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A Different Way for Libertarians to Look at ‘Rape Culture’

A
few days ago, my colleague Robby Soave blogged about a talk on Brown University’s
campus
 between Guardian columnist Jessica
Valenti and Canadian author Wendy McElroy. Robby was sympathetic to
McElroy’s view about “rape culture”, which seems to be that the
term should be reserved for cultures where rape is used liberally
and systematically as a tool of terror, subjugation, or war. Both
scoffed at Valenti’s comment that rape jokes could contribute to
U.S. assault rates. “Rape is the work of a small number of serial
predators, rather than a cultural phenomenon,” wrote Soave.

But why can’t it be both? Perhaps rape is something best looked
at as a phenomenon driven by a small number of serial predators
that are enabled by the culture. Callow attitudes toward rape don’t
“cause” rape, but they could—in aggregate—create conditions where
it’s easier for rapists to get away with it.

Do Valenti and company overstate the extent to which
socialization influences rapists? Sometimes. But there’s also a
tendency among conservatives and many libertarians to dismiss
feminist talk of “rape culture” as patently absurd. And I like to
think (or hope, at least) that this is partly a function of parties
talking past one another. 

Much of the skepticism surrounding “rape culture”—and from here
I’m moving beyond Soave or McElroy’s critiques to criticism more
broadly—takes the term to imply a) radical Islam-levels of female
oppression, b) coordinated male conspiracy, or c) a consensus that
all elements of rape culture contribute equally to rape rates.

But when feminists decry rape culture in the U.S., they’re not
suggesting life for American women is literally a constant struggle
to avoid being raped. No one’s saying we face the same level of
sexual violence as women in, say, Syria right now. That would be
absurd. Which is why I find the “South Africa—now there’s a
rape culture, ladies!
” argument to be oversimplified and
unproductive. “If somebody else has it much worse, that doesn’t
really change the fact that you have what you have,” to quote a navel-gazing coming-of-age
novel. We don’t need to be experiencing epidemic levels of sexual
violence to still be experiencing too
much
 sexual violence and, perhaps, have a conversation
about how culture contributes to that. 

Invoking “rape culture” is simply a way of looking, academically
or anecdotally, at how the ephemera around sex and sexual violence
may systematically create subtle biases in behavior and perception.
That’s all “rape culture” really means: that certain beliefs and
norms in our society may make it easier for sexual violence to take
place. 

These norms aren’t generally seen by feminists as some
coordinated, intentional campaign of “the patriarchy.” As Cory
Mossimo wrote recently at Students for Liberty, it may be best to
think of rape culture as spontaneous order. “There is no
conscious effort on the part of men to establish ‘rape culture’ as
we know it,” writes Mossimo. “However, the actions of rapists”—and
here I would also add the unwitting people who perpetuate certain
ideas about sex and sexual violence—”have unconsciously created an
unplanned culture that afflicts all women and men.”

Does hearing rape jokes make an individual likely to suddenly go
and commit rape? Of course not—sexual
assault is largely perpetrated by people with
premeditated intent, not people bizarrely lured to it by the power
of suggestive humor. But I’d say it’s also uncontroversial that the
meta ways in which we talk and think about rape can contribute to
how we treat rapists and rape victims in law, media, and society at
large. 

And this is what Valenti and other feminists fret over: callow
attitudes toward rape could contribute to a culture where the
seriousness of the violation is devalued. And while this
devaluation won’t drive more people to start committing
assault, it could allow those who do to thrive.

The idea isn’t that “rape culture” directly causes rape, but
that it makes people less likely to speak up if they have been
assaulted, or less likely to speak out against someone they know
has committed sexual assault. That it drives online threats and
harassment. That it influences the way our police and the criminal
justice system treat sexual assault allegations.

It’s not just about rape jokes, either, but sexual norms more
broadly. We’ve come a long way, but there is still a very pervasive
idea in American culture that men want sex (always, from whoever,
however) for sex itself and women only use sex, withholding it and
then doling it out in exchange for drinks or love or good behavior.
That women say no because they want to be chased. That
women should say no so they can be chased. That
sex is not something two people do to have fun together but
something we give or take from one another. 

How much difference does any of this make when it comes to
actual rape rates? I have no idea. Neither does anyone else,
really. It’s key to remember that we’re all just playing armchair
sociologist here. (I also want to stress that believing cultural
attitudes matter isn’t the same as saying no one
should ever joke about rape.) But I believe
these are all legit areas of inquiry and discussion—especially for
those of us who would reject more heavy-handed government
intervention into things like how colleges handle sexual assault or
how law enforcement reacts to rape threats on Twitter. 

To sum up, talking about “rape culture” isn’t meant as an
indictment of men, masculinity, or expressions thereof. It is an
indictment of rapists—an an acknowledgement that maybe, in
myriad tiny ways, we all make it a little bit easier or harder for
them to get away with it. 

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“Serfdom is the New Normal” – Talkin’ Oligarch Blues with Perpetual Assets

“Oligarchs like protecting themselves from peasants…”

– Gus Demos of Perpetual Assets

The guys at Perpetual Assets are not only fellow warriors in the struggle against oligarchy and fascism in the USSA, they are also friends. It’s been great getting to know them over the years, and working with them in this existential struggle we face.

The way in which they have chosen to make a difference is in hard-asset protection, which is why they started the company. With civil asset forfeiture currently in the spotlight, it’s worth remembering that there has been a marked rise not just in occurrences of civil asset forfeiture, but also in scope.  Any asset that you do not control is potentially at risk. One of the ways in which Perpetual Assets tries to help in this regard is to jailbreak your retirement account through an LLC IRA, with which you can even take home delivery of gold and silver bullion. Check out their tutorial on the process here.

Moving along, I think the following interview is one of the best I’ve ever done. It was more a discussion than anything else, and the range of topics discussed is incredibly expansive. From moats around the White House, to agent provocateurs. From the feasibility of anarchy, to the precious metals market. It has it all. Enjoy!

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5 Things To Ponder: Rising Risk

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

There are things going on with the financial markets currently that seem just a bit "out of balance." For example, asset prices are rising against a backdrop of global weakness, deflationary pressures and rising valuations. More importantly, there is a rising divergence between sentiment and hard data.

For example, on Thursday the Philadelphia Federal Reserve released their regional survey which showed that manufacturers are the most optimistic in the region in, well, ever. The surge in the "manufacturing" index from 20.7 to 40.8 comes against a backdrop of weaker industrial production during the last 3 months.

However, even more curious was that the surge in the manufacturing survey was offset by Markit's US Purchasing Managers Index which saw a decline to 10-month lows of 54.7 and has, like industrial production, fallen three months in a row. 

Markit-Industrial-Production-112014

Importantly, here are the "key points" from Markit that confirms much of my analysis regarding the impact of a strong dollar/weak global economy combination on U.S. exports.

"Output growth has now fallen for three straight months, taking the pace of expansion down to its lowest since the start of the year. Unlike January, however, this time the weaker rate of growth can’t be blamed on the weather.

 

Export market weakness holds the key to the recent slowdown, with manufacturers reporting the largest drop in export orders for nearly one and a half years.

 

There’s some reassurance from manufacturers continuing to boost their payroll numbers at a robust pace, but with backlogs of work showing almost no growth, the rate of job creation looks likely to moderate in coming months unless new order inflows pick up again.

 

The manufacturing and service sector PMI data available so far point to GDP growth slowing to around 2.5% in the fourth quarter."

While weather can't be blamed yet, it will likely be the main "excuse" in the months ahead as early record snowfall is already impacting economic production.

However, it isn't just the manufacturing data that seems "out of whack." Consumer sentiment about the economy has been surging in recent reports by Gallup, University of Michigan and the Census Bureau.

Consumer-Confidence-112014

However, while survey data shows consumers being more optimistic about the economy, the recent mid-term election exits polls told a markedly different story. With a much bigger sampling base than what is used by the University of Michigan, 70% of voters polled stated their biggest concern was the economy. More importantly, that message rang the loudest from Democrats who voted for Republican candidates in traditionally deeply "blue" states.

While I will discuss the ramifications of recent market action as it relates to the current portfolio allocation models in more depth in this weekend's missive, [Click here to subscribe for FREE E-Delivery] these divergences should not be readily dismissed.

This weekend's reading list is a smattering of articles covering some of the things that deserve your attention. While my portfolio models are still long biased, I am getting much more uncomfortable about the "risks" that are developing in the markets. You should be too.


1) Goldman Sachs Warns "Multiple Expansion Is Over" via ZeroHedge

"Strategically, the multiple expansion phase of the current bull market ended in 2013. The strong S&P 500 YTD price gain of 10% roughly matches the realized year/year EPS growth of the index. The index has climbed by 17% annually during the past three years as the consensus forward P/E multiple surged by nearly 60% from 10x to 16x.

 

However, we expect the P/E will contract and the index will slip during the second-half of 2015 as the Fed takes its first step in the long-awaited tightening cycle. Our S&P 500 year-end 2015 target of 2100 implies a modest 5-10% P/E multiple compression to16.0x our top-down 2016 EPS estimate or 14.6x bottom-up consensus earnings estimates.

 

Every recent investor discussion centers on the question of how stocks will trade when interest rates start to rise. We expect multiples will compress while volatility and stock return dispersion remain low. Our forecast of solid US GDP growth underpins our expectation of low volatility, low dispersion, and low stock returns in 2015."

Multiple-Expansion-112014

2) The Risk You Can Control by Haywood Kelly via Morning Star

While Morning Star almost always carries a very bullish spin in their writings, I found these data points to very telling.

"What is our valuation work telling us today? Our valuation lights are not quite flashing red, but they're not green, either. At best, they're signaling mediocre long-term returns for the stock market. Here's where we are as of this writing:

* The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO) trades just above our estimated fair value based on the valuation of its underlying holdings.

* As of Nov. 18, only 13 stocks out of 1,000 under coverage earn 5 stars, among the lowest percentages of highly rated stocks since we launched the Morningstar Rating for stocks in 2001. (At the market low in March 2009, we had more than 600 5-star stocks.)

* The highest-quality stocks (those with wide Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings) trade near the highest valuations we've seen since we began assigning moats back in 2002.

* Morningstar investment strategists uniformly believe it's difficult to find bargains today, a sentiment echoed by many of the best investment managers we talk to."

Valuation-AllStocks-112014

 

3) Sometimes Things Go To Eleven by John Hussman via Hussman Funds

"As Nigel Tufnel of Spinal Tap described the volume knobs on his guitar amplifier – 'You're on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you're on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where? Eleven. Exactly. One louder. These go to eleven.'

 

The chart below presents a slightly different perspective than similar charts I’ve presented over time. Rather than showing discrete instances where a whole syndrome of overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions has occurred (points with bullish sentiment at extremes, valuations historically rich, prices pushing upper Bollinger bands, etc), the vertical bars show a count of individual components, coupled with additional components that reflect deteriorating market internals. This gives a less binary view of these syndromes. The spikes (such as 1929, 1972, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2011, and the past year) show points when a preponderance of conditions – extreme valuation, lopsided bullish sentiment, overbought conditions, widening credit spreads, and at least some aspects of deteriorating market internals – have been observed in unison. The red line shows the S&P 500 Index (log scale)."

Hussman-112014

 

4) Bull Markets Come AND Go by David Keohane via Fiancial Times

"As it currently stands, the current bull is the 4th longest out of 23 in terms of duration, 6th largest in terms of percentage change. It is well beyond both the mean and median based on this data set. There is no reason why the market cannot rally further, even becoming number one in either percentage or duration, or both, of being up on the year, this despite our 'circling the drain' feeling about this especially as the liquidity machine is still pumping in Japan, China and Europe. Given we agree with William Hamilton that the stock markets are 'soulless barometers'; the underlying bid suggests optimism in 2015. As long as the market views the Central Bank intravenous lines as a good thing, we respect the bullish trajectory.

 

But at some point out, the market will view the medicine as the poison. After all, consistently rising home prices were once also thought of as a good thing. Until the dramatic change. We remain vigilant."

Bull-Market-In-Years-112014

 

5) Myth: Time Reduces Risk by Ineichen Research & Management

However, if the magnitude of potential loss defines risk, then risk increases with time.

 

As British economist John Maynard Keynes so famously put it, is that you might not live long enough to experience the long term. The empirical research might be true, but it is of little practical relevance for most investors.

 

The S&P 500® Index reached a peak in 2007 and recovered swiftly. This is the exception to the rule. It was only possible with unprecedented intervention from government authorities.

 

Diversification is for those who know what they don’t know. All other investors either don’t know what they don’t know or bought into a potentially false doctrine from which the only cure is substantial losses."

Ineichen-Research-Bubbles-112014


"But if you're gonna dine with them cannibals sooner or later, darling, you're gonna get eaten…” ? Nick Cave

Have a great weekend.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1xdy4WV Tyler Durden

Peter Suderman Reviews The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1

My review of
the third Hunger Games movie, from The Washington
Times
:

Jennifer
Lawrence
 is as much the hero of “The Hunger Games” as is
her on-screen alter ego Katniss Everdeen, the sullen, brave,
self-obsessed, self-sacrificing protagonist at the center of the
movies.

On paper, the character doesn’t make much sense,
but Ms.
Lawrence
 does a masterful job of turning the script’s
creations into an unruly and fascinating character.

It’s easy to accept those contradictions, even when they don’t
seem to add up, because Ms.
Lawrence
 seems to be struggling with them as well, slowly
coming to terms with the mess of who she is. It’s that struggle
that makes her so watchable, and that carries the movies.

That’s good, because there’s a lot that doesn’t add up in the
latest entry, “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1,” which adapts
the first half of the third and final book in the enormously
popular Hunger Games series of young adult novels.

The story picks up shortly after the second film left off:
Katniss, after sabotaging the murderous games at the heart of her
society’s dystopian social order, has been whisked away by the
resistance to a secret buried city: District 13, a low-lit,
utilitarian bunker that looks like a cross between an airport, a
dorm and a cafeteria.

Once there, she becomes the Mockingjay — a symbol of the
rebellion, cast in propaganda films designed to spur on the
resistance of the other districts, which are, for all practical
purposes, slaves to the rich, elitist denizens of the Capitol.

Newcomers will likely be lost, but even casual viewers may find
themselves with nagging questions about the series’ lore. The
political and economic structures employed by the Capitol, led by
the malevolent President Snow (a delightfully icy Donald
Sutherland) to control the outer districts, never really make
sense.


Read the complete review
, which focuses heavily on the
problematic social mechanics that undergird the story. As I say in
the review, it’s in many ways the most interesting of the films so
far, but it’s also the weakest. 

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The Plebs Are Revolting – Utah Bill to Shut Off Water to the NSA Moves Forward

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 2.19.35 PMIn the wake of the failure of the U.S. Senate to move forward on the USA Freedom Act, many activists and civil liberties advocates have come to the conclusion that we can’t rely on the feds to do anything decent on the subject. One of the proposed grassroots ways to fight back has been an emphasis on increased use of encryption (recall my pre-Snowden era post, Bitcoin and Kim Dotcom: Why it’s Time to “Encrypt Everything”). Another obvious solution is for people to revolt at the local level. It appears that the citizens of Utah are doing just that.

Wired reports that:

Lawmakers are considering a bill that would shut off the water spigot to the massive data center operated by the National Security Agency in Bluffdale, Utah.

The legislation, proposed by Utah lawmaker Marc Roberts, is due to go to the floor of the Utah House of Representatives early next year, but it was debated in a Public Utilities and Technology Interim Committee meeting on Wednesday. The bill, H.B. 161, directs municipalities like Bluffdale to “refuse support to any federal agency which collects electronic data within this state.”

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