How the Economist(s) manipulate gold’s value in one chart

Todays “Chart of the Day” from the Economist makes an attempt to show that gold isn’t doing any better when comes to preserve buying power than currency such as the Swiss frang and the Japanese yen. Roy Sebag, co-founder of BitGold and CEO of GoldMoney, took the liberty to point out the obvious (and many) flaws in their chart (see his comments to the left):

 

 

He then then went on to show how the real chart looks like. While the Swiss frang and the Japanese yen preserved value better than the USD, both currencies are still down 87% and 90% vs gold, respectively.

 

 

 


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Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Jump to Highest Level Since 2010

Screen Shot 2016-02-24 at 5.04.45 PM

Just in case you need some more evidence that the U.S. economy is rolling over.

Bloomberg reports:

More borrowers with spotty credit are failing to make monthly car payments on time, a troubling sign for investors who have snapped up billions of dollars of securities backed by risky auto debt.

Delinquencies on subprime auto loans packaged into bonds rose in January to 4.7 percent, a level not seen since 2010, according to data from Wells Fargo & Co.

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Exposing The Hidden Agenda Of Davos 2016

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

“It’s a big club and you ain’t in it!”

I’m often reminded of these words, spoken by the great comedian George Carlin, when I read about the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

That’s where the global power elite gather to discuss the big issues of the day. The most important world leaders attend. As do the CEOs of the largest companies, leaders in the mainstream media and top academics. Central bankers attend, too, along with a wide assortment of celebrities.

Three types of meetings happen in Davos, according to the BBC:

  1. Public meetings, which anyone can attend.
  1. Closed meetings, which you can only attend by invitation.
  1. Secret meetings, which are unannounced. The public doesn’t know the agenda or who attends.

The biggest and most important deals take shape in these secret meetings. And this year, I think there was one secret meeting with huge historical significance.

I think world leaders decided to dramatically escalate the War on Cash, making it easier for them to impose negative interest rates.

Negative interest rates mean the lender pays the borrower for the privilege of lending him money. It’s a bizarre, upside-down concept.

Negative rates could not exist in a free market. They can only exist in an Alice in Wonderland economy created by central bankers.

*  *  *

[ZH: We confirmed this belief last week when we pointed out the rather disturbing headline spotted in a Davos presentation…

the most disturbing development we have seen yet in the push for a cashless society has come from the following slide in a Morgan Stanley presentation, one in which the bank's head of EMEA equity research Huw van Steenis, pointed out the following…

 

… and added this:

One of the most surprising comments this year came from a closed session on fintech where I sat next to someone in policy circles who argued that we should move quickly to a cashless economy so that we could introduce negative rates well below 1% – as they were concerned that Larry Summers' secular stagnation was indeed playing out and we would be stuck with negative rates for a decade in Europe. They felt below (1.5)% depositors would start to hoard notes, leading to yet further complexities for monetary policy.

Consider this the latest, and loudest, warning on the road to digital fiat serfdom.]

*  *  *

Punishment Interest

Think of it as “punishment interest.”

That’s a common term in Germany for negative interest rates. I think it’s an apt description.

Punishing savers is exactly what central bankers—who are really central economic planners—would like to do. They think stinging savers with negative interest rates will encourage them to spend now. It’s effectively a tax on saving money.

Central planners just want you to spend money. Even if you have to go into debt to do it. Consumption based on fear of negative interest rates is somehow supposed to “stimulate” the economy.

However, their harebrained scheme is not working. Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden all have negative interest rates. But consumer spending is not being “stimulated” in those countries. It’s totally (and predictably) backfiring on the central planners. And it’s easy to see why.

Negative interest rates make it harder to save. Put $1,000 in your bank account at the beginning of the year, and it becomes $950 by the end of the year. And that’s not even accounting for inflation.

This scenario scares people. It doesn't induce them to spend.

Producing more than you consume and saving the difference has always been the basis of prosperity. Prudent saving and thriftiness are supposed to be good things. However, negative interest rates destroy the incentive to save. That’s just one of the reasons it’s such a toxic concept.

But there’s another important reason to fear negative interest rates…

If you don’t like the sting of negative interest, you can withdraw your money from the bank and stash the cash under your mattress. The more it costs to store money at the bank, the less inclined people are to do it.

Of course, this is not the outcome central economic planners want. It puts a natural limit on how far down they can drive interest rates.

Their solution to this “problem” is to push the world closer to a cashless society. That cuts off your main escape route from punishment interest.

Central planners are doing this by phasing out larger denominations of currency notes, which makes large cash transactions impractical. Some are outright prohibiting cash transactions over a certain amount. France recently made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal, down from the previous limit of €3,000.

Statist economists even advocate declaring all dollar bills with a serial number ending in “9” invalid.

These are just some of their methods. They all make it inconvenient or illegal to use cash. This forces people to use electronic payment methods more and more, which, of course, is what the U.S. government wants.

It’s exactly like Ron Paul said: “The cashless society is the IRS’s dream: total knowledge of, and control over, the finances of every single American.”

After Davos, the War on Cash Goes into Overdrive

For weeks, Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of Japan’s central bank, repeatedly denied plans to adopt negative interest rates.

Kuroda was at the January 20–23 summit in Davos.

A few days later, on January 29, he decided to impose negative interest rates in Japan for the first time ever. Something must have changed his mind.

I don’t think this was an isolated incident. I’m quite sure global leaders secretly discussed ramping up the War on Cash in Davos.

There was a flurry of related activity during and immediately after Davos. Here are some of the most noteworthy incidents:

  • January 20: Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan predicted cash won’t exist in 10 years.
  • January 22: Norway’s biggest bank, DNB, called for the country to stop using cash.
  • January 29: The editorial board of Bloomberg published an article titled “Bring On the Cashless Future.” It called for the elimination of physical cash.
  • February 4: The Financial Times ran an op-ed titled “The Benefits of Scrapping Cash.” It advocated the elimination of physical money.
  • February 8: Peter Sands, president emeritus of Harvard, issued a paper titled Making it Harder for the Bad Guys: The Case for Eliminating High Denomination Notes. It advocates removing large bills from circulation to help fight the various made-up wars…the war on crime, the war on drugs, the war on terror…
  • February 15: Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), announced that he has essentially decided to phase out the €500 note. These notes represent around 30% of the physical euro notes in circulation. With the use of physical cash curtailed, J.P. Morgan estimates the ECB could ultimately bring interest rates as low as negative 4.5%.
  • February 16: Larry Summers, a Harvard professor and former Treasury secretary, wrote an article in The Washington Post titled “It’s time to kill the $100 bill.” Summers became the latest high-profile “economist” to call for the abolition of cash. Removing the $100 bill from circulation would eliminate the value of 78% of all U.S. currency in circulation.
  • February 16: Hasbro, maker of the Monopoly board game, announced that, starting in the fall, the famous game will no longer feature cash. The company is replacing in-game cash with special bank cards players scan on handheld “banking units” to make purchases.
  • February 22: The editorial board of The New York Times published an article titled “Getting Rid of Big Currency Notes Could Help Fight Crime.” It called for getting rid of high denomination notes.

The writing is on the wall. The War on Cash is accelerating. And it’s setting the table for negative interest rates in the U.S.

That should not surprise anyone. Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said, “Potentially anything—including negative interest rates—would be on the table.”

It’s time to protect yourself from negative interest rates and the War on Cash…before it’s too late. You don’t want to find yourself unprepared when negative interest rates hit you.

The War on Cash and negative interest rates are obvious signs of desperation. They are huge threats to your financial security.

Central bankers are playing with fire and inviting a currency catastrophe, just like they have done so many times in the past.

The sad truth is most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare…

We think everyone should own some physical gold. Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. It’s preserved wealth through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will preserve wealth during the next crisis, too.

But if you want to truly save yourself from the consequences of all this stupidity, there's more to do…

How will you protect your savings from the War on Cash and negative interest rates?


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Liberty Links 2/24/16

Below are links to some of the more interesting and important reads I came across today, but will not be publishing on in detail.

U.S. Sought Data From 15 Apple iPhones in Last Four Months (FBI wants a lot more than data from one phone, Reuters)

The End of the Establishment? (Excellent read by Robert Reich)

It’s Time to Kick Erdogan’s Turkey Out of NATO (Huffington Post)

Obama’s Plan to Close Guantanamo Would Establish Indefinite Detention on U.S. Soil (The Intercept)

Google Fiber Expanding Faster, Further — And Making Comcast Very Nervous (TechDirt)

Bahrain Jails Secular Activist Over Political Speech (The Guardian)

The NSA’s SKYNET Program May Be Killing Thousands of Innocent People (Ars Technica)

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Detroit Teachers Face “Payless Paydays” As Dilapidated School District Faces Financial Reckoning

When last we looked at the effect America’s multiple state and local government fiscal crises are having on the country’s school systems, we noted that budget drama across both Illinois and Pennsylvania threatened to force layoffs and class cancellations.

In Chicago, for instance, the Board of Education has variously been described as “a gambler at the end of his run,” a reference to officials’ bad habits when it comes to skipping pension payments and borrowing heavily to stay afloat. “Let’s be clear Chicago Public Schools are in dramatic trouble,” Governor Bruce Rauner said in December. “They’re looking at a disaster somewhere in the next nine months.”

Just this month, the Board sold another $725 million in bonds at punishing interest rates of up to 8.5%. Here’s a look at the 2042s:

Things have gotten so bad that Rauner wants to block the system from borrowing more money and take over the schools. “If it determined that any school district was in financial duress, the state board has the right — the legal authority — to block any debt offerings,” he told reporters on Monday. “The state board has not ever chosen to do that for the city of Chicago. I hope that never becomes necessary, but we’ve got to be ready to take action and step in.”

As for Pennsylvania whose schools, you’re reminded, started the year minus $1 billion in funds, Governor Tom Wolf warned earlier this month that the state’s ticking budget timb bomb would eventually force massive layoffs. “At the Senate hearing Monday, Majority Leader Jake Corman, R-Centre, challenged Mr. Wolf’s claim during his budget address that if his proposals are not enacted, thousands of teachers will be removed from Pennsylvania schools,” the Pittsburgh Post Gazette writes. “Mr. Corman noted that the Republican budget would have increased education funding, though not by as much as Mr. Wolf wants.”

Whatever the case, partisan budget brawls and gross fiscal mismanagement are imperiling the future of America’s school children. Literally. That’s not some attempt to employ hyperbole in order to tie the future of America’s youth to economics and finance. It’s a reality in more locales than one. 

Case in point: today we learn that Detroit’s public schools have officially reached their borrowing limit which means absent some manner of intervention from the state government, the district will run out of cash by April.

“This month the amount of state aid that’s siphoned off to service debt will jump to roughly what is spent on salaries and benefits, pressuring the district’s ability to pay its bills,” Bloomberg writes, and that means “the district may have to stop paying workers if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement.”

Detroit’s school system is sitting on more than a half a billion in debt to the state loan authority and will be insolvent in less than 60 days. Last month, some schools were forced to close because teachers called in sick to protest poor conditions. Poor conditions like those shown below:

“The city began inspecting the buildings last month after the teacher strikes began,” Bloomberg goes on to note. “On Feb. 6, the district announced it was reallocating $300,000 from other spending to begin repairs to buildings.”

“DPS is finally on the brink,” State Treasurer Nick Khouri told lawmakers today. “When they run out of cash, sometime in the spring or early summer, without legislative interaction, they will have payless paydays,” he warned.

In order to “fix” the situation, lawmakers want to split the district into two entities one that will carry the debt burden which the state will help to pay down, and another to administer the schools themselves. 

The package of six bills would split the 46,000-student DPS into two entities, creating a new debt-free school district,” The Detroit Free Press reported, earlier today. “Two bills already pending in the Senate contains a similar plan, but the House bills have been more controversial because they add collective bargaining restrictions to teachers and don’t restore a fully elected school board to the city for eight years.”

Each year, the district spends $70 million more than it brings in in revenues, but a bankruptcy would result in 12 months of “chaos,” Khouri cautioned. 

So, just another day in the heart of America’s gutted manufacturing heartland. For anyone who is still clinging to the idea that US manufacturing is in the midst of or is somehow capable of experiencing a renaissance in the years ahead, we encourage you to have a look at one last chart from Bloomberg, which should tell you everything you need to know about the Rust Belt’s future.


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Donald Trump Is Right: Here Are 100 Reasons Why We Need To Audit The Federal Reserve

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

When a leading nominee for President gets something exactly right, we should applaud them for it.  In this case, Donald Trump’s call to audit the Federal Reserve is dead on correct.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but the Federal Reserve has far more power over the economy than anyone else does – including Barack Obama. 

Financial markets all over the planet gyrate wildly at the smallest comment from Fed officials, and virtually every boom and bust cycle over the past 100 years can be traced directly back to specific decisions made by the Federal Reserve.  We get all excited about what various presidential candidates say that they “will do for the economy”, but in the end it is the Fed that is holding all of the cards.  The funny thing is that the Federal Reserve is not even part of the federal government.  It is an independent private central bank that was designed by very powerful Wall Street interests a little over 100 years ago.  It is at the heart of the debt-based financial system which is eating away at America like cancer, and it has no direct accountability to the American people whatsoever.

The Fed has been around for so long that most people assume that we need it.

But the truth is that we don’t actually need the Federal Reserve.  In fact, the greatest period of economic growth in United States history happened during the decades before the Federal Reserve was created.

A little over 100 years ago, very powerful forces on Wall Street successfully pushed for the creation of an immensely powerful central bank, and since that time the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen by about 98 percent and our national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger.

The Federal Reserve does whatever it feels like doing, and Fed officials insist that the institution must remain “independent” and “above politics” because monetary policy is too important to entrust to the American people.

To me, this is absolutely ridiculous.  Everything else, including our national defense, is subject to the normal political process, and yet the decisions made by the Fed are so “important” that the American people can’t have a voice?

It is high time that the American people begin to learn what the Federal Reserve is really all about, and that can start with a full, comprehensive audit of all of the Federal Reserve’s activities.  Yesterday, Donald Trump came out in favor of such an audit…

 

Previously, Trump has made quite a few comments that were very critical of the Fed.  For example, last year he told Bloomberg News that he believed that the Federal Reserve was “creating a bubble”…

“In terms of real estate, if I want to develop … from that standpoint I like low interest rates. From the country’s standpoint, I’m just not sure it’s a very good thing, because I really do believe we’re creating a bubble.”

And of course Trump was exactly right about that too.  By pushing interest rates to artificially low levels and creating billions upon billions of dollars out of thin air during the quantitative easing era, stock prices were driven to ridiculously high levels.  Now that the artificial support has been withdrawn, stocks are beginning to crash, and the financial collapse which is starting to happen is going to be far worse than it otherwise would have been because of the Fed’s actions.  The following comes from one of my previous articles

As stocks continue to crash, you can blame the Federal Reserve, because the Fed is more responsible for creating the current financial bubble that we are living in than anyone else.  When the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates all the way to the floor and injected lots of hot money into the financial markets during their quantitative easing programs, this pushed stock prices to wildly artificial levels.  The only way that it would have been possible to keep stock prices at those wildly artificial levels would have been to keep interest rates ultra-low and to keep recklessly creating lots of new money.  But now the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative easing and has embarked on a program of very slowly raising interest rates.  This is going to have very severe consequences for the markets, but Janet Yellen doesn’t seem to care.

I don’t understand why so many Americans continue to support the Federal Reserve.

We don’t need a bunch of central planners setting interest rates and determining monetary policy.  We are supposed to have a free market system, and the free market should be setting interest rates – not the Federal Reserve.

Unfortunately, just about every nation on the entire planet now has a central bank.  Even though the nations of the world can’t agree on much, somehow central banking has been adopted virtually everywhere.  At this point, more than 99.9% of the population of the world lives in a country that has a central bank.

There are still some minor island countries such as the Federated States of Micronesia that do not have a central bank, but the only major nation not to have one right now is North Korea.  And nobody in their right mind would ever want to live there.

So how in the world did this happen?

Did the people of the world willingly choose this debt-based system or was it imposed upon them?

To my knowledge, there has never been a single vote where the population of a nation has willingly chosen to establish a central bank.  I could be wrong about this, but I have never heard of one.

It is the elite that have always wanted central banking, and now they pretty much have the entire planet in their grasp.

That is why we should applaud Donald Trump when he stands up to the elite.  And it isn’t just regarding the Fed that he has done this.  The following comes from an excellent article that was just written by Dan Lyman

Ultimately, Trump knows it is the global elite who have pried our borders wide open. He knows it is THEY who are responsible for the tens of millions of Third Worlders pouring into our nations. He knows that THEY are the monsters who need the world to be constantly at war. He knows THEY are radically altering our food supply with GMOs and poisonous chemicals. He knows THEY are responsible for poisoning our drinking water, filling our skies and air supplies with toxic waste, genociding our unborn children, collecting data on all citizens to implement the Orwellian police state, forcing poison into our babies’ veins – and soon the rest of us, redistributing what remains of our wealth under the guises of ‘saving the planet’ or ‘refugee aid,’ allowing and funding the ISIS Islamofascists to decimate places like Syria and Iraq in Satanic fashion, promoting the psychotic LGBT Nazis to goose-step all over our religious liberties and gender-privacy in school bathrooms. If there is a societal cancer metastasizing somewhere, it can usually be traced back to the same sources.

Yes, there are many things that we can criticize Trump and the other Republican candidates for.  But when they nail something, we should be willing to admit that they got something right.

In this case, Donald Trump is absolutely correct to call for an audit of the Fed.  As I promised in the title of this article, I want to share 100 reasons why the Fed should be audited.  The following list has been adapted from one of my previous articles

#1 We like to think that we have a government “of the people, by the people, for the people”, but the truth is that an unelected, unaccountable group of central planners has far more power over our economy than anyone else in our society does.

#2 The Federal Reserve is actually “independent” of the government. In fact, the Federal Reserve has argued vehemently in federal court that it is “not an agency” of the federal government and therefore not subject to the Freedom of Information Act.

#3 The Federal Reserve openly admits that the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks are organized “much like private corporations“.

#4 The regional Federal Reserve banks issue shares of stock to the “member banks” that own them.

#5 100% of the shareholders of the Federal Reserve are private banks. The U.S. government owns zero shares.

#6 The Federal Reserve is not an agency of the federal government, but it has been given power to regulate our banks and financial institutions. This should not be happening.

#7 According to Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution, the U.S. Congress is the one that is supposed to have the authority to “coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures”. So why is the Federal Reserve doing it?

#8 If you look at a “U.S. dollar”, it actually says “Federal Reserve note” at the top. In the financial world, a “note” is an instrument of debt.

#9 In 1963, President John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110 which authorized the U.S. Treasury to issue “United States notes” which were created by the U.S. government directly and not by the Federal Reserve. He was assassinated shortly thereafter.

#10 Many of the debt-free United States notes issued under President Kennedy are still in circulation today.

#11 The Federal Reserve determines what levels some of the most important interest rates in our system are going to be set at. In a free market system, the free market would determine those interest rates.

#12 The Federal Reserve has become so powerful that it is now known as “the fourth branch of government“.

#13 The greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history was when there was no central bank.

#14 The Federal Reserve was designed to be a perpetual debt machine. The bankers that designed it intended to trap the U.S. government in a perpetual debt spiral from which it could never possibly escape. Since the Federal Reserve was established 100 years ago, the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger.

#15 A permanent federal income tax was established the exact same year that the Federal Reserve was created. This was not a coincidence. In order to pay for all of the government debt that the Federal Reserve would create, a federal income tax was necessary. The whole idea was to transfer wealth from our pockets to the federal government and from the federal government to the bankers.

#16 The period prior to 1913 (when there was no income tax) was the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history.

#17 Today, the U.S. tax code is about 13 miles long.

#18 From the time that the Federal Reserve was created until now, the U.S. dollar has lost 98 percent of its value.

#19 From the time that President Nixon took us off the gold standard until now, the U.S. dollar has lost 83 percent of its value.

#20 During the 100 years before the Federal Reserve was created, the U.S. economy rarely had any problems with inflation. But since the Federal Reserve was established, the U.S. economy has experienced constant and never ending inflation.

#21 In the century before the Federal Reserve was created, the average annual rate of inflation was about half a percent. In the century since the Federal Reserve was created, the average annual rate of inflation has been about 3.5 percent.

#22 The Federal Reserve has stripped the middle class of trillions of dollars of wealth through the hidden tax of inflation.

#23 The size of M1 has nearly doubled since 2008 thanks to the reckless money printing that the Federal Reserve has been doing.

#24 The Federal Reserve has been starting to behave like the Weimar Republic, and we all remember how that ended.

#25 The Federal Reserve has been consistently lying to us about the level of inflation in our economy. If the inflation rate was still calculated the same way that it was back when Jimmy Carter was president, the official rate of inflation would be somewhere between 8 and 10 percent today.

#26 Since the Federal Reserve was created, there have been 18 distinct recessions or depressions: 1918, 1920, 1923, 1926, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1949, 1953, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008.

#27 Within 20 years of the creation of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy was plunged into the Great Depression.

#28 The Federal Reserve created the conditions that caused the stock market crash of 1929, and even Ben Bernanke admits that the response by the Fed to that crisis made the Great Depression even worse than it should have been.

#29 The “easy money” policies of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan set the stage for the great financial crisis of 2008.

#30 Without the Federal Reserve, the “subprime mortgage meltdown” would probably never have happened.

#31 If you can believe it, there have been 10 different economic recessions since 1950. The Federal Reserve created the “dotcom bubble”, the Federal Reserve created the “housing bubble” and now it has created the largest bond bubble in the history of the planet.

#32 According to an official government report, the Federal Reserve made 16.1 trillion dollars in secret loans to the big banks during the last financial crisis. The following is a list of loan recipients that was taken directly from page 131 of the report…

Citigroup – $2.513 trillion
Morgan Stanley – $2.041 trillion
Merrill Lynch – $1.949 trillion
Bank of America – $1.344 trillion
Barclays PLC – $868 billion
Bear Sterns – $853 billion
Goldman Sachs – $814 billion
Royal Bank of Scotland – $541 billion
JP Morgan Chase – $391 billion
Deutsche Bank – $354 billion
UBS – $287 billion
Credit Suisse – $262 billion
Lehman Brothers – $183 billion
Bank of Scotland – $181 billion
BNP Paribas – $175 billion
Wells Fargo – $159 billion
Dexia – $159 billion
Wachovia – $142 billion
Dresdner Bank – $135 billion
Societe Generale – $124 billion
“All Other Borrowers” – $2.639 trillion

#33 The Federal Reserve also paid those big banks $659.4 million in “fees” to help “administer” those secret loans.

#34 During the last financial crisis, big European banks were allowed to borrow an “unlimited” amount of money from the Federal Reserve at ultra-low interest rates.

#35 The “easy money” policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have created the largest financial bubble this nation has ever seen, and this has set the stage for the great financial crisis that we are rapidly approaching.

#36 Since late 2008, the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown from less than a trillion dollars to more than 4 trillion dollars. This is complete and utter insanity.

#37 During the quantitative easing era, the value of the financial securities that the Fed has accumulated is greater than the total amount of publicly held debt that the U.S. government accumulated from the presidency of George Washington through the end of the presidency of Bill Clinton.

#38 Overall, the Federal Reserve now holds more than 32 percent of all 10 year equivalents.

#39 Quantitative easing creates financial bubbles, and when quantitative easing ends those bubbles tend to deflate rapidly.

#40 Most of the new money created by quantitative easing has ended up in the hands of the very wealthy.

#41 According to a prominent Federal Reserve insider, quantitative easing has been one giant “subsidy” for Wall Street banks.

#42 As one CNBC article stated, we have seen absolutely rampant inflation in “stocks and bonds and art and Ferraris“.

#43 Donald Trump once made the following statement about quantitative easing: “People like me will benefit from this.

#44 Most people have never heard about this, but a very interesting study conducted for the Bank of England shows that quantitative easing actually increases the gap between the wealthy and the poor.

#45 The gap between the top one percent and the rest of the country is now the greatest that it has been since the 1920s.

#46 The mainstream media has sold quantitative easing to the American public as an “economic stimulus program”, but the truth is that the percentage of Americans that have a job has actually gone down since quantitative easing first began.

#47 The Federal Reserve is supposed to be able to guide the nation toward “full employment”, but the reality of the matter is that an all-time record 102 million working age Americans do not have a job right now. That number has risen by about 27 million since the year 2000.

#48 For years, the projections of economic growth by the Federal Reserve have consistently overstated the strength of the U.S. economy. But every single time, the mainstream media continues to report that these numbers are “reliable” even though all they actually represent is wishful thinking.

#49 The Federal Reserve system fuels the growth of government, and the growth of government fuels the growth of the Federal Reserve system. Since 1970, federal spending has grown nearly 12 times as rapidly as median household income has.

#50 The Federal Reserve is supposed to look out for the health of all U.S. banks, but the truth is that they only seem to be concerned about the big ones. In 1985, there were more than 18,000 banks in the United States. Today, there are only 6,891 left.

#51 The six largest banks in the United States (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) have collectively gotten 37 percent larger over the past five years.

#52 The U.S. banking system has 14.4 trillion dollars in total assets. The six largest banks now account for 67 percent of those assets and all of the other banks account for only 33 percent of those assets.

#53 The five largest banks now account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States.

#54 We were told that the purpose of quantitative easing was to help “stimulate the economy”, but today the Federal Reserve is actually paying the big banks not to lend out 1.8 trillion dollars in “excess reserves” that they have parked at the Fed.

#55 The Federal Reserve has allowed an absolutely gigantic derivatives bubble to inflate which could destroy our financial system at any moment. Right now, four of the “too big to fail” banks each have total exposure to derivatives that is well in excess of 40 trillion dollars.

#56 The total exposure that Goldman Sachs has to derivatives contracts is more than 381 times greater than their total assets.

#57 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has a track record of failure that would make the Chicago Cubs look good.

#58 The secret November 1910 gathering at Jekyll Island, Georgia during which the plan for the Federal Reserve was hatched was attended by U.S. Senator Nelson W. Aldrich, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Department A.P. Andrews and a whole host of representatives from the upper crust of the Wall Street banking establishment.

#59 The Federal Reserve was created by the big Wall Street banks and for the benefit of the big Wall Street banks.

#60 In 1913, Congress was promised that if the Federal Reserve Act was passed that it would eliminate the business cycle.

#61 There has never been a true comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve since it was created back in 1913.

#62 The Federal Reserve system has been described as “the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world“.

#63 The following comes directly from the Fed’s official mission statement: “To provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.” Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve has failed in those tasks dramatically.

#64 The Fed decides what the target rate of inflation should be, what the target rate of unemployment should be and what the size of the money supply is going to be. This is quite similar to the “central planning” that goes on in communist nations, but very few people in our government seem upset by this.

#65 A couple of years ago, Federal Reserve officials walked into one bank in Oklahoma and demanded that they take down all the Bible verses and all the Christmas buttons that the bank had been displaying.

#66 The Federal Reserve has taken some other very frightening steps in recent years. For example, back in 2011 the Federal Reserve announced plans to identify “key bloggers” and to monitor “billions of conversations” about the Fed on Facebook, Twitter, forums and blogs. Someone at the Fed will almost certainly end up reading this article.

#67 Thanks to this endless debt spiral that we are trapped in, a massive amount of money is transferred out of our pockets and into the pockets of the ultra-wealthy each year. Incredibly, the U.S. government spent more than 415 billion dollars just on interest on the national debt in 2013.

#68 In January 2000, the average rate of interest on the government’s marketable debt was 6.620 percent. If we got back to that level today, we would be paying more than a trillion dollars a year just in interest on the national debt and it would collapse our entire financial system.

#69 The American people are being killed by compound interest but most of them don’t even understand what it is. Albert Einstein once made the following statement about compound interest…

Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”

#70 Most Americans have absolutely no idea where money comes from. The truth is that the Federal Reserve just creates it out of thin air. The following is how I have previously described how money is normally created by the Fed in our system…

When the U.S. government decides that it wants to spend another billion dollars that it does not have, it does not print up a billion dollars.

 

Rather, the U.S. government creates a bunch of U.S. Treasury bonds (debt) and takes them over to the Federal Reserve.

 

The Federal Reserve creates a billion dollars out of thin air and exchanges them for the U.S. Treasury bonds.

#71 What does the Federal Reserve do with those U.S. Treasury bonds? They end up getting auctioned off to the highest bidder. But this entire process actually creates more debt than it does money…

The U.S. Treasury bonds that the Federal Reserve receives in exchange for the money it has created out of nothing are auctioned off through the Federal Reserve system.

 

But wait.

 

There is a problem.

 

Because the U.S. government must pay interest on the Treasury bonds, the amount of debt that has been created by this transaction is greater than the amount of money that has been created.

 

So where will the U.S. government get the money to pay that debt?

 

Well, the theory is that we can get money to circulate through the economy really, really fast and tax it at a high enough rate that the government will be able to collect enough taxes to pay the debt.

 

But that never actually happens, does it?

 

And the creators of the Federal Reserve understood this as well. They understood that the U.S. government would not have enough money to both run the government and service the national debt. They knew that the U.S. government would have to keep borrowing even more money in an attempt to keep up with the game.

#72 Of course the U.S. government could actually create money and spend it directly into the economy without the Federal Reserve being involved at all. But then we wouldn’t be 17 trillion dollars in debt and that wouldn’t serve the interests of the bankers at all.

#73 The following is what Thomas Edison once had to say about our absolutely insane debt-based financial system…

That is to say, under the old way any time we wish to add to the national wealth we are compelled to add to the national debt.

 

Now, that is what Henry Ford wants to prevent. He thinks it is stupid, and so do I, that for the loan of $30,000,000 of their own money the people of the United States should be compelled to pay $66,000,000 — that is what it amounts to, with interest. People who will not turn a shovelful of dirt nor contribute a pound of material will collect more money from the United States than will the people who supply the material and do the work. That is the terrible thing about interest. In all our great bond issues the interest is always greater than the principal. All of the great public works cost more than twice the actual cost, on that account. Under the present system of doing business we simply add 120 to 150 per cent, to the stated cost.

 

But here is the point: If our nation can issue a dollar bond, it can issue a dollar bill. The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good.

#74 The United States now has the largest national debt in the history of the world, and we are stealing roughly 100 million dollars from our children and our grandchildren every single hour of every single day in a desperate attempt to keep the debt spiral going.

#75 Thomas Jefferson once stated that if he could add just one more amendment to the U.S. Constitution it would be a ban on all government borrowing

I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.

#76 At this moment, the U.S. national debt is sitting at $18,141,409,083,212.36. If we had followed the advice of Thomas Jefferson, it would be sitting at zero.

#77 When the Federal Reserve was first established, the U.S. national debt was sitting at about 2.9 billion dollars. On average, we have been adding more than that to the national debt every single day since Obama has been in the White House.

#78 We are on pace to accumulate more new debt during the 8 years of the Obama administration than we did under all of the other presidents in all of U.S. history combined.

#79 If all of the new debt that has been accumulated since John Boehner became Speaker of the House had been given directly to the American people instead, every household in America would have been able to buy a new truck.

#80 Between 2008 and 2012, U.S. government debt grew by 60.7 percent, but U.S. GDP only grew by a total of about 8.5 percent during that entire time period.

#81 Since 2007, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio has increased from 66.6 percent to 102.98 percent.

#82 According to the U.S. Treasury, foreigners hold approximately 5.6 trillion dollars of our debt.

#83 The amount of U.S. government debt held by foreigners is about 5 times larger than it was just a decade ago.

#84 As I have written about previously, if the U.S. national debt was reduced to a stack of one dollar bills it would circle the earth at the equator 45 times.

#85 If Bill Gates gave every single penny of his entire fortune to the U.S. government, it would only cover the U.S. budget deficit for 15 days.

#86 Sometimes we forget just how much money a trillion dollars is. If you were alive when Jesus Christ was born and you spent one million dollars every single day since that point, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now.

#87 If right this moment you went out and started spending one dollar every single second, it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend one trillion dollars.

#88 In addition to all of our debt, the U.S. government has also accumulated more than 200 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities. So where in the world will all of that money come from?

#89 The greatest damage that quantitative easing has been causing to our economy is the fact that it is destroying worldwide faith in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. debt. If the rest of the world stops using our dollars and stops buying our debt, we are going to be in a massive amount of trouble.

#90 Over the past several years, the Federal Reserve has been monetizing a staggering amount of U.S. government debt even though Ben Bernanke once promised that he would never do this.

#91 China recently announced that they are going to quit stockpiling more U.S. dollars. If the Federal Reserve was not recklessly printing money, this would probably not have happened.

#92 Most Americans have no idea that one of our most famous presidents was absolutely obsessed with getting rid of central banking in the United States. The following is a February 1834 quote by President Andrew Jackson about the evils of central banking…

I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the Bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the Bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out and, by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out.

#93 There are plenty of possible alternative financial systems, but at this point all 187 nations that belong to the IMF have a central bank. Are we supposed to believe that this is just some sort of a bizarre coincidence?

#94 The capstone of the global central banking system is an organization known as the Bank for International Settlements. The following is how I described this organization in a previous article

An immensely powerful international organization that most people have never even heard of secretly controls the money supply of the entire globe. It is called the Bank for International Settlements, and it is the central bank of central banks. It is located in Basel, Switzerland, but it also has branches in Hong Kong and Mexico City. It is essentially an unelected, unaccountable central bank of the world that has complete immunity from taxation and from national laws. Even Wikipedia admits that “it is not accountable to any single national government.” The Bank for International Settlements was used to launder money for the Nazis during World War II, but these days the main purpose of the BIS is to guide and direct the centrally-planned global financial system. Today, 58 global central banks belong to the BIS, and it has far more power over how the U.S. economy (or any other economy for that matter) will perform over the course of the next year than any politician does. Every two months, the central bankers of the world gather in Basel for another “Global Economy Meeting”. During those meetings, decisions are made which affect every man, woman and child on the planet, and yet none of us have any say in what goes on. The Bank for International Settlements is an organization that was founded by the global elite and it operates for the benefit of the global elite, and it is intended to be one of the key cornerstones of the emerging one world economic system.

#95 The borrower is the servant of the lender, and the Federal Reserve has turned all of us into debt slaves.

#96 Debt is a form of social control, and the global elite use all of this debt to dominate all the rest of us. 40 years ago, the total amount of debt in our system (all government debt, all business debt, all consumer debt, etc.) was sitting at about 3 trillion dollars. Today, the grand total is approaching 60 trillion dollars.

#97 Unless something dramatic is done, our children and our grandchildren will be debt slaves for their entire lives as they service our debts and pay for our mistakes.

#98 Now that you know this information, you are responsible for doing something about it.

#99 Congress has the power to shut down the Federal Reserve any time that it would like. But right now most of our politicians fully endorse the current system, and nothing is ever going to happen until the American people start demanding change.

#100 The design of the Federal Reserve system was flawed from the very beginning. If something is not done very rapidly, it is inevitable that our entire financial system is going to suffer an absolutely nightmarish collapse.


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Wedbush Goes There: “Beware The Panics And Crashes Of March”

As if several markets tumbles and heartstopping short squeezes in just the first two months of 2016 have not been enough to turn professional traders’ hair prematurely gray and drive all retail daytraders permanently out of the “market”, here is a warning from Wedbush’s otherwise quite somber repo market analyst, Scott Skyrm, according to whom the volatility is only just starting.

As he says in his latest note to clients, “over the past 20 years, there was a series of market sell-offs during the month of March. In 1998, it was the subject of a news story on CNBC. They claimed it’s a combination the market digesting the February refunding and Japanese investors preparing for Japanese year-end on March 31st. These days, world markets are more complex than in 1998, but there continues to be a series of market panics and crashes in March.”

And while the past may or may not be prologue, here is a brief history of the March crashes in the past 25 years which could signal a comparable event is on deck in what is already an extremely jittery market.

  • March 1992: Short-end sells-off, market prices a 75 bps tightening, but the Fed eases in April
  • March 1994: Fed tightens in February and March igniting a sell-off in the long-end of the curve. Mortgage and CMO markets crash. Kidder Peabody is sold
  • March 1995: U.S. dollar crashes. Central banks intervene to support the dollar with large operations of March 1996: Large employment number triggers a sell-off across the entire yield curve
  • March 1998: General market sell-off at the beginning of the month Feb/Mar 1999: Bond market experiences a series of 1 point drops
  • March 24, 2000: NASDAQ (technology) market reaches a peak and begins major decline
  • March 2001: Sell-off in U.S. stock market after Fed fails to cut rates aggressively
  • March 2003: After Gulf War II starts, bond market sells-off considerably
  • March 2005: After poor earnings from General Motors, corporate and emerging markets bonds sell-off
  • Feb/Mar 2007: Stock sell-off in China sparks global sell-off, flight-to-quality, sub-prime market under stress
  • March 2008: Liquidity crisis causes the collapse of Bear Stearns
  • March 2009: Sell-off in stocks brings Dow Jones index to a low of 6547; lowest since 1996
  • Feb/Mar 2010: Greek sovereign debt crisis begins
  • Mar 2011: Earthquake in Japan sends ¥ higher, leads to both a flight-to-quality & sell-off in the cash market
  • March 20, 2012: Late hour bailout from the Eurozone and IMF save Greece from default

If the VXX crashes back to 2016 lows tomorrow, it may not be a bad idea to get some.


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Electoral Distraction And Media Dysfunction

Submitted by Dan Sanchez via DanSanchez.me,

America’s moral compass was performing surprisingly well until a few months ago. Citizen journalism and social media were driving the news cycle and framing the narratives. The mainstream media can try to spin atrocity, but they can’t completely control the stories that emerge from war zones and urban occupations, much less how the public conscience responds to those stories. This is especially true now that every individual with a smartphone is potential photojournalist, and any affecting image or alternative news story can go viral through social media.

The recent movement against predatory police was not part of the program. The general public was not supposed to see Eric Garner choked out by NYPD cops while pleading “I can’t breathe,” Michael Brown’s corpse left for hours to bake on the hot asphalt in Ferguson, or a platoon of militarized cops besieging an American community.

Also not part of the program was the turn of American public opinion against Israel following the 51 Day War on Gaza. The general public was not supposed to see the shattered bodies of little boys sprawled out in the sand after they were bombed by the IDF while playing soccer on a beach in Gaza. They were not supposed to see a video of a little girl under siege begging the viewer to believe that she is not a terrorist and that she just wants to live.

All of the above flashpoints happened during what could be called the Long Hot Summer of 2014 (which may yet prove as historically significant as the Long Hot Summer of 1967). For a full year after that summer, the world’s worst chronic injustices were live issues and hot stories. Ever brighter sunlight was shining on the world’s worst brutalizers, and there was little their apologists in the media could do about it.

We Now Return You to Your Regularly Scheduled Distraction

Then election season began, and Americans were returned to their regularly scheduled pre-programming. Ever since, the presidential election has sucked up most of the oxygen in the country’s discourse. Quests for justice and battles of ideas were displaced by a contest of personas. Feeds and front pages were once again dominated by a power elite horse race, crowding out coverage of malign institutions and their systematic injustices.

Cops are still deeply unpopular, but their brutality largely fell from public focus, in spite of the succession of their victims continuing to mount unabated. Israel’s favorability rating among Americans is still the lowest it has been since 2004. But it too has been flying mostly under the media radar, even as it has used an alleged “Knife Intifida” or “Wave of Terror” (the IDF’s version of the “War on Cops” narrative promulgated by American police unions) as an excuse to perpetrate a massive campaign of summary street executions of Palestinians, including especially minors and children.

Who has the attention span for that when American Political Idol is on? Isn’t Jeb cringe-worthy? Isn’t Hillary shameless? Have you heard the latest bigotry spouted by Trump? Isn’t he such a lout? Or conversely, did you see Trump tell it like it is? Isn’t he a refreshing iconoclast?

Americans can’t be bothered about occupation forces running rampant in Cincinnati and Hebron, or even about World War III threatening to erupt out of the conflict in Syria, because they’re too busy culturally signaling about divisive celebrities.

Yet these elections we are so preoccupied with have little bearing on the general direction of the deep state. They are essentially power rituals that serve to drape an autocratic oligarchy in the sanctifying mantle of “democracy.” The importance of an individual’s participation in campaign season is not about to which candidate he gives his statistically insignificant support, but the systematic buy-in and authorization involved in participating at all.

The 4th-grade-level disputation of modern American politics does manage to start some debate over significant issues, but only of a coarse and barren kind. The win-lose nature of the electoral power struggle stimulates so much partisan animosity among citizens that reason and morality are obscured amid the haze of herd-think. Yet even this sorry level of discussion is vastly outweighed by coverage of the horse race and the personalities of the candidates.

Election season also places the establishment media back in the saddle and at the reins over the narrative and the news cycle. However “populist” some candidates may be, media coverage of political campaigns are a decidedly non-populist affair. Stories about the doings and sayings of candidates emerge, not from on-the-ground witnesses and victims of injustice, or decentralized social networks, but from members of the press corps granted special access and exclusive leaks. Such stories will never be allowed to be too subversive, even with a “rogue” candidate like Trump. Fairly innocuous and obsolete questions like “Was the Iraq War a mistake?” might be allowed to surface, but not deeply subversive ones like the following:

In Syria, is the U.S. abetting and allying with Al Qaeda, the organization responsible for the worst attack on American soil in history? Are cops systematically preying on the communities they claim to ‘protect and serve’? Did Washington send thousands of Americans to kill and die in Iraq largely to serve the interests of a foreign apartheid state? If the answers to the above are yes, what does that say about the very nature of our government: the institution ostensibly tasked with the security of the American people? What does it say about the nature of the State in general?

Tune In, Turn On, Drop Out

These are the fundamental questions Americans need to be asking and discussing. But they never will until we again snatch the reins of public discourse out of the hands of the power elite and its kept media. To truly effect change and achieve justice, we must (to paraphrase Timothy Leary) tune out the mainstream media’s distractions, turn on our minds and consciences, and drop out of the power ritual of election season.

 


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Restoration Hardware Stock Crashes After Terrible Earnings; Company Blames Crashing Stock Price

Despite the unequivocally good economic news of low oil prices, Restoration Hardware's CEO just pre-warned of a massive miss in top- and bottom-line for Q4 thanks to "energy, oil, and currency fluctuations." This has sent the stock down over 20% after hours to its lowest since early 2013.

Here is why the headline scanning algos are puking:

  • *RESTORATION HARDWARE 4Q ADJ. EPS 99C, EST. $1.40
  • *RESTORATION HARDWARE 4Q NET REV. $647.2M, EST $710M

The firm's CEO explains the reasons for the collapse:

There are three key factors that had a negative effect on our fourth quarter results, along with several positive developments that give us tremendous confidence in our long-term growth strategy.

 

First, our demand sales/written orders were up a strong 21% in the fourth quarter on top of up 26% last year. Our delivered revenue, however, was up only 11% in the quarter on top of up 24% last year, representing a shortfall to our plan. While the initial response to RH Modern has been outstanding, we are experiencing shipping delays as certain vendors are struggling to ramp up production of this new product line. We expect the majority of the demand/written orders to turn into revenues in the first and second quarter, and anticipate our vendors will be substantially caught up by the end of the first half. Additionally, we believe the poor in-stocks also suppressed orders, and we expect demand to build as our in-stocks improve.

 

Second, we continue to see underperformance in markets affected by energy, oil, or currency fluctuations. The Canada, Texas and Miami markets were a drag of 2 points to total Company revenues in the first half, then accelerated to a 4 point drag in the third quarter, and continued as a 4 point drag in the fourth quarter despite increased promotional efforts, including reduced shipping charges to incentivize our Canadian customers. These results tell us the conditions remain weak in these markets and in aggregate they are trending 20 points below the rest of the Company. Looking forward, we will begin to cycle the underperformance, and the negative drag should be mitigated.

 

Third, our attempt to drive incremental revenue through increased promotional activity in the fourth quarter was less successful than in prior periods, signaling a further pullback by the high-end consumer. Our sense is the increased volatility in the US stock markets, especially the extreme conditions in January, which is historically our biggest month of the quarter for furniture sales, contributed to our performance.

But the punchline was this:

Historically, our business has a correlation to large movements in stock prices as we believe asset valuations influence our customers’ buying patterns.

In other words, the stock price is crashing, because earnings are terrible, because…  the stock price is crashing.

Well, at the rate the stock is crashing after hours, RH may just forget any earnings in the coming quarter, which will in turn send the price crashing even further until ultimately there is nothing left of either the business or its market cap.

 


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“Where Are The Bubbles?” – UBS Shows Them All In One Chart

As has become increasingly obvious to many, unconventional central bank policies have resulted in an unprecedented level of crowding – a "herd mentality" to trade positioning on the basis of a similar theme – throughout global equity markets. UBS quant team guages the "barometric pressure of developing investment bubbles" across various factors and looks for the inflection points with the dollar, oil, and politics as the main catalysts.

Despite the possession of the most rigorous and innovative analytical tools, in former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's words, "Identifying a bubble in progress is intrinsically difficult."

Bubbles throughout history have unfolded uniquely.

Once identified, bubbles can inflate well beyond the naysayers and even the most wild-eyed optimists' expectations. Fed Chair Greenspan's popularization of the phrase "irrational exuberance" occurred in the midst of Nasdaq's historic climb, where prices rallied a further 500% to the peak in March 2000, only to fall 80% thereafter (Figure 3). Ironically, Bernanke's speech lamenting the difficulty in identifying bubbles came days after the 2000-02 technology led Bear Market's historic capitulation low.

But UBS' quantitative equity research team cites unprecedented capital market conditions, quantitative easing and divergence in monetary policies which have led to large flows of cheap money into equity markets globally as a reason that thematic investment bubbles have inflated, increasing the prevalence and risk of crowding – a global "herd mentality" to trade positioning.

With fundamental input from UBS' regional strategists, the quant team introduces its "toolkit" for gauging the barometric pressure of developing investment bubbles (in both overweight and underweight themes) using institutional holdings, return correlations within peer groups and sell-side sentiment. The results identify a number of potential global equity market bubbles:

Are underweight US Energy and EM and overweight US Healthcare truly bubbles? Positioning and sentiment dynamics that would indicate that US Energy is a bubble in negativity while US Healthcare is a more traditionally "bullish bubble."

In terms of institutional holdings, return correlations within peer groups and sellside sentiment, quantitatively this would appear to be the case, in varying degree and size. And if indeed these three are bubbles, they likely have begun to deflate in recent months.

Catalysts: Dollar, Oil Politics

With identification of bubbles and timing of bubble deflation ostensibly as much art as science, what could cause the potential underweight US Energy and EM bubbles and the overweight Health Care bubble to pop?

Given the extremely strong correlation of oil prices and the US dollar to US Energy and EM share performance over the last two years (Figures 8 and 9) a stabilization and rally in Oil (UBS forecasts $40 WTI for 2016) or a continued decline in the US Dollar (UBS forecasts Euro/$ of 1.16 by year end 2016) – both of which have been supportive over the past month – could catalyze further outperformance in these areas over the coming months, particularly if oil producers agree to cutbacks or Fed rhetoric continues to guide markets in a dovish manner.

On Health Care, while earnings trends would appear to be relatively intact, the threat of political action once Washington changes regimes in 2017 could continue to pressure valuation, as has been the case since the first "political broadside" against "excessive" drug pricing went viral in September 2015 and as threats to repeal Obamacare have magnified.

The persistence of political pressure and the possibility of a legislative assault on earnings in 2017 and 2018 could catalyze investors to re-rate Health Care stocks in a manner similar to that which the post GFC regulatory regime has resulted in lower mean valuation for Financials.

In our view, the option markets provide a good risk to reward profile for implementation of "Crowded trade unwind positions".


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