Caterpillar Retail Sales Post Longest Winning Streak In 51 Months

Caterpillar’s great depression ended four months ago, when in March following a record 51 consecutive months of annual declines, its global retail sales posted the first, if modest, monthly increase growing by 1% on the back of a surge in Chinese and other Asia/Pac sales. Since then the trend has accelerated, and in June the company reported that Asia Pac sales rose by 40% Y/Y, which however appears to the next cyclical slowdown following increases of 46%, 47% and 49% in the March-May period. Just as notably, retail sales in the US rose by 2% again, the best performance since May 2015.

The result is that CAT’s global sales have posted the longest positive streak in 51 months, and appear to have put the 4+ year depression in the read view mirror – even if Asian retail sales appear to be slowing once again – and are levitating higher, although as we said last month, just like during the 2011/2012 downturn, it all depends on how “hard” China’s economic slowdown will be over the coming year.

Finally broken down by component, it was a mixed picture with weakness re-emerging amid transportation equipment:

  • Power Gen: -7%, after down -10% in April
  • Industrial: +10%, after up +4%
  • Transportation:-7%, after up +8%
  • Oil & Gas: +6%, after down -13%

And while construction industries (thanks China housing) were broadly higher, up 10% in June, a modest decline from May’s 11%, resources – i.e., E&P and others, continue to languish, and were again down 1% in June, following a -3% drop in May, which however was an improvement from the 19% drop in both March and April as commodity producers appear to be finally spending more on capex.

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Crooked Cops Need Tighter Restrictions, Not Financial Incentives to Invent Crimes: New at Reason

Cops plant evidence to meet quotas, compete with colleagues, and settle scores. Eased asset forfeiture with little oversight would just bribe them to do more damage.

J.D. Tuccille writes:

In January, a Baltimore police officer planted drug evidence before activating his body camera and “finding” the probable cause he and his buddies needed to make a bust, according to the city’s Office of the Public Defender. Images of the cop placing a soup can full of white capsules on the ground were captured in the 30-second buffer of the camera and then preserved after the device was officially turned on. Now prosecutors are reviewing 100 other cases in which the same trio of officers may have been up to similar shenanigans.

Most news reports are treating the incident as a peek at problems in troubled Baltimore’s police department. They need to look a little further afield.

These Baltimore officers, and their colleagues around the country, are the same cops that U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions thinks are burdened with excessive oversight. In April he vowed, “this Department of Justice will not sign consent decrees that will cost more lives by handcuffing the police instead of criminals.” And just days ago, Sessions rededicated his department to working with local law enforcement on civil asset forfeiture efforts that bypass the need for criminal convictions to seize property—and also bypass state and local safeguards. Forfeited funds are split between federal and local agencies in a lucrative arrangement for everybody but the victims. “Equitable sharing” collaboration between federal and local agencies was suspended under former Attorney General Eric Holder, but the new regime is jump-starting the program

View this article.

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One Trader Fears The End Of The “Heads I Win, Tails I Win” Market As Central Bank Credibility Crashes

We're all experts in identifying the problems (and who is to blame), but thanks to the endless intervention of central banks, former fund manager Richard Breslow warns we've given up looking for solutions. Why bother looking for solutions when there's always some 'greater power' waiting to save the day

Via Bloomberg,

We all seem to be caught up in an endless loop of declaring we’re unhappy because there are so many other people ruining everything. But when asked what should we do, the decision loop points us back to "this stinks" rather than, "well if it were up to me". Identifying complaints, we’re expert at. Coming up with solutions, not so much.

With some legitimate justification from experience, who wants to any longer be in the group making sacrifices when we know there’s always a bunch of other folks gaming the system in a “heads I win, tails I win” scenario. Make it pain-free, or go away.

 

It’s one thing if these discussions, or lack thereof, concern pizza versus burgers. It’s another if it’s about how we run the economy, or the country as a whole, for that matter. Gridlock or decision-making paralysis only works when things are basically fine anyway.

 

But at some point the powers that be need to understand that motion is progress, even if you allow for the possibility of missteps. This is something the Fed really needs to contemplate before heading into the Committee Room. The economy overall just isn’t in a crisis condition. But there are plenty of threats exacerbated by the old medicine.

 

You really have to wonder what possible benefit waiting another couple of months to timidly introduce a time line for balance sheet reduction or even execute another rate hike will achieve? It’s almost as if we are stuck in neutral because they don’t want to harm the excitement of Jackson Hole. Will ticket prices decline if they don’t get to premier the hottest release?

 

So what has happened in the last month?

  • Central bank credibility has taken two steps back with all the flip-flopping.
  • Traders are forced to continue to chase risks they know are dangerous.
  • Global PMIs are sagging from the optimistic levels they achieved earlier in the year.
  • And don’t blame it on the lack of a fiscal agenda that was DOA a long time ago.

Why invest in real things if the message is, let the band play on? Very little is being achieved by this timidity, which can’t be described as prudence.

 

I suspect that the members are as transfixed by political events as the rest of us. But, frankly, that sort of nausea shouldn’t be used as an excuse for their inaction. If they are waiting for Washington to sort itself out in addition to inflation being exactly where they want it, we’re in for a long haul. And if they really are terrified then we are owed that message as well. They bare their emotions on every other topic.

 

The ECB, BOJ, BOE are all chilling. The Fed should take that as comfort that they have others smoothing their way rather than as a cautionary tale.

There are two problems with this "heads I win, tails I win" world:

First – this cannot go on forever…

And Second – at least one market is eyeing October's debt ceiling deadline as a problem (and combine that with The Fed's decision to begin unwinding its balance sheet around the same time, expectations for the return of volatility should be high)…

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UBS: “Political Entertainment While We Await The Fed”

Four quick, and unexpectedly sarcastic bullets, from UBS’ global chief economist Paul Donovan, on what will occupy markets in the coming days.

  • The US Federal Reserve dominates the near term, with markets not looking for a quantitative policy tightening this month. The Fed’s challenge is communicating long-term real world policy to investors obsessed with hashtag economics. (@PDonovan_Econ)
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers’ opinion polls are due. Markets and media love this data. Including preliminary data, it is out twice a month. There is lots of it. There is lots of superficially interesting details. The fact that the correlation of this data to reality has collapsed does not seem to matter – it is something to talk about.
  • The Russian question has two strands this week. The US Congress is expected to pass sanctions against Russia, which the US president may not veto but the EU will object to. And various members of the Trump family are to testify to Congress on Russia ties.
  •  Japanese PM Abe’s approval rating has fallen significantly. Unlike the US, Japan is a consensus-based political society and this may hinder Abe’s ability to pass legislation through the Diet

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Trump Open to Signing Russia Sanctions Legislation, Schumer Calls Dems ‘Namby-Pamby,’ Jordan Spieth Wins British Open: A.M. Links

  • President Trump complained on Twitter that Republicans weren’t doing enough to “protect” him.
  • Trump is reportedly open to signing legislation that would limit his power to ease sanctions against Russia.
  • Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer characterized Democrats as too “namby-pamby” in 2016 and said he’d unveil a new Democratic agenda today.
  • A anti-capitalist Museum of Capitalism is opening, temporarily, in Oakland, complete with a gift shop.
  • A wildfire in California can be seen from space.
  • The feline mayor of Talkeetna, Alaska, has died.
  • Michael Phelps “raced” a number of sharks to kick off Shark Week.
  • Jordan Spieth won the British Open.

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Matt Welch Interviews C.J. Ciaramella, Kyle Smith, Joshua Green, and Dan Nowicki from 9-12 AM ET

This morning I am sitting in the guest-host chair for Stand UP! with Pete Dominick on Sirius XM Insight (channel 121) from 9-12 am ET. The guests are scheduled to include:

* Reason’s own C.J. Ciaramella, who’ll talk about Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ awful new expansion of civil asset forfeiture.

* Joshua Green, author of the brand spanking new Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency.

* Dan Nowicki, the great Arizona Republic national political writer, who will talk about Sen. John McCain (and hopefully Jeff Flake).

* Kyle Smith, critic at large for National Review, who will talk about Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk, and the lousiness of New York subway politics.

Please call the show at any time, but especially in the first and last half-hours: 1-877-974-7487.

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EU To Retaliate “Within Days” If US Imposes New Sanctions On Russia

In what appears set to be major diplomatic showdown between Washington D.C. and Brussels, on Sunday the White House said that President Trump was open to signing legislation toughening sanctions on Russia after Senate and House leaders reached agreement on a bill late last week.

“We support where the legislation is now and will continue working with the House and Senate to put those tough sanctions in place on Russia until the situation in Ukraine is fully resolved and it certainly isn’t right now,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” program.

As noted yesterday, congressional Democrats said on Saturday they had agreed with Republicans on a deal allowing new sanctions targeting Russia, Iran and North Korea in a bill that would limit any potential effort by Trump to try to lift sanctions against Moscow. A White House official quoted by Reuters later said the administration’s view of the legislation evolved after changes were made, including the addition of sanctions on North Korea. The official said the administration “supports the direction the bill is headed, but won’t weigh in conclusively until there is a final piece of legislation and no more changes are being made.”

Restrictions against Russia come as part of the Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act, targeting not only Tehran, but also North Korea. Initially passed by the Senate last month, the measures seek to impose new economic measures on major sectors of the Russian economy. The draft legislation would also introduce individual sanctions for investing in Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, outlining steps to hamper construction of the pipeline and imposing sanctions on European companies which contribute to the project.

Other energy projects, such as the Caspian Sea oil and gas pipelines, the Ukraine gas transit, and the Zohr field off the Egyptian coast, may also be affected due to the participation of Russian companies.

Yet while Russia’s adverse reaction is to be expected, and will likely lead to immediate countersanctions, perhaps coupled with the expuslion of the aforementioned 35 diplomats as well as confiscation of US properties in Russia, it is the EU’s response that will be closely watched.

According to an internal memo leaked to the press, Brussles said it should act “within days” if new sanctions the US plans to impose on Russia prove to be damaging to Europe’s trade ties with Moscow. Retaliatory measures may include limiting US jurisdiction over EU companies. The memo, seen by the Financial Times and Politico, has emerged amid mounting opposition to a US bill seeking to hit Russia with a new round of sanctions. The bill, if signed into law by the U.S. President, will also give US lawmakers the power to veto any attempt by the president to lift the sanctions.

The document reportedly said European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker was particularly concerned the sanctions would neglect the interests of European companies. Juncker said Brussels “should stand ready to act within days” if sanctions on Russia are “adopted without EU concerns being taken into account,” according to the Financial Times.

The EU memo also warns that “the measures could impact a potentially large number of European companies doing legitimate business under EU measures with Russian entities in the railways, financial, shipping or mining sectors, among others.”

The freshly leaked memo suggests that the EU is seeking “a public declaration” from the Trump administration that it will not apply the new sanctions in a way that targets European interests, as cited by Politico.  Other options on the table include triggering the ‘Blocking Statute,’ an EU regulation that limits the enforcement of extraterritorial US laws in Europe. A number of “WTO-compliant retaliatory measures” are also being considered, according to the memo.

Earlier on Sunday, we reported that the bloc expressed its unease over the sanctions bill, when the European Commission said in a statement that “the Russia/Iran sanctions bill is driven primarily by domestic considerations,” adding that it “could have unintended consequences, not only when it comes to Transatlantic/G7 unity, but also on EU economic and energy security interests.”

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “we heard of some corrections to the administration’s stance on sanctions and will wait patiently until it is clearly articulated.” He reiterated that Russia believes the restrictions are “counterproductive” and are harming both US and Russian interests. Russian President Vladimir Putin also warned that any new sanctions on Russia will only result in the deterioration of US-Russia relations.

Germany, Russia’s main European trading partner, called the bill “a peculiar move,” also promising a swift response to it. Some American corporations, including BP, ExxonMobil, General Electric, Boeing, Citigroup, MasterCard, and Visa, have reportedly lobbied against the move.The corporations, according to a CNN report, want changes to the bill, while lobbyists and trade associations have been visiting Capitol Hill in recent days meeting with members of Congress.

The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the controversial sanctions bill on Tuesday. Previously, adoption of the draft was put on hold as the House was reluctant to pass it, citing “procedural issues.”

With the vote assured passage it will be up to Trump to determine if the feud with Russia dumped on his lap now escalates, and involves European nations who are far closer to Russia in socio-economic terms than they would like to admit.

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Chainsaw-Wielding Attacker Wounds Five In Swiss Street Rampage

A manhunt is underway for a chainsaw-wielding assailant who wounded five people, two seriously, in a violent attack on Monday in a small Swiss town that was put into lockdown.

Police said the attack was “not an act of terror” according to Reuters. Authorities said they had identified the attacker, but did not name him, describing him in a statement appealing for help from the public as bald, unkempt and around 190 cm (six feet three inches) tall, and is believed to be driving a white Volkswagen Caddy.

The attack happened inside an office building on a shopping street in the centre of Schaffhausen, a medieval town of 36,000 inhabitants on the German border, just after 10:30am local time. Police cordoned off the area and ordered people to leave, Swiss newspaper Blick said. Witnesses saw bleeding victims being treated by rescue crews, it reported.

Helicopter ambulances were on the scene.

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OPEC/Saudi ‘Promises’ Fail To Ignite Momentum in WTI Crude Prices

WTI crude remains stuck ominously below $46 despite a full court press jawboning, headline-pumping effort this morning. As oil leaders meet in St.Petersburg, Saudis promised to cut exports further, Nigeria suggested it would limit output (at dramatically higher-than-current production), Russia offered hope that Q3 had “big potential”, and OPEC suiggested tighter compliance monitoring (as cheating has picked up in recent months).. but oil just won’t budge.

As Bloomberg reports, OPEC and partners meet in St. Petersburg where the Saudi energy minister says he expects deep cut in nation’s August exports.

OPEC/non-OPEC meeting:

  • Saudi Arabia’s Al-Falih says inventory draw-down to accelerate, demand picking up; Saudis to cap exports at 6.6m b/d in August, y/y decline of 1m b/d
  • Joint ministerial committee said to discuss monitoring oil exports along with production figures; Al-Falih says exports have become key metric for financial markets
  • OPEC may need to discuss in November extending cuts: U.A.E.
  • Nigeria to limit output to 1.8m b/d if it can reach that level: Oman
  • Russia’s Novak sees ‘‘big potential’’ for oil markets in 3Q; not opposedto monitoring exports

And this is the result… a quick spike above $46… then fall back.

It is clear that OPEC/NOPEC has lost the market’s self-referential confirmation circle (‘we buy when you speak’). Simply put, US shale’s short-term response cycle to any increase in oil prices means any actions taken by the Saudis to juice the energy market are quickly stifled by resurgent US production.

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“Apprehension”: Main Events In Torrid Week Include Fed, GDP, Earnings And “Lots Of White House Risk”

“Apprehension” – that’s how Citi describes trader sentiment as a new week begins, in which the bank points to various event risks over the coming five days. The one markets are focusing on over say, the FOMC on Wednesday, is the political noise coming from Washington. The investigation into Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 election is back in focus as President Trumps’ son-in-law testifies, along with Trump Jr and Paul Manafort later in the week. As such, risk sentiment seems apprehensive ahead of the inevitable headlines

Indeed, near term White House risk is substantial and is as follows: Jared Kushner appearing before Senate intelligence committee on Monday; the Senate healthcare vote is expected Tuesday; Donald Trump Jr. and former Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort are expected to appear on Wednesday before Senate committees investigating Russian meddling.

On the economic front, next week attention will be on the US FOMC rate decision, Q2 GDP data, consumer confidence, housing and durable goods orders. We also get GDP, composite PMI and CPI inflation releases across the Euro Area. GDP data in the UK. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in Colombia, Brazil, Turkey and Russia.

It is also the busiest week for Q2 earnings with dozens of marquee names reporting.

As Jim Reid summarizes, the highlight this week are today’s flash PMI numbers and the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, although the latter will likely be a relatively mundane affair with the action perhaps being saved for a September balance sheet announcement. One also has to keep an eye on all things Washington related following Friday’s announcement of Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s resignation. Mr Trump now has new people at the helm of both his legal and communications teams after resignations towards the end of last week. Late on Friday Congressional negotiators agreed to advance a bill punishing Russia for its involvement in the 2016 election and also restricting Presidential powers to remove sanctions on Russia. It will now go to a vote and if it passes Trump could be in a difficult situation as he has publicly stated he wants improved relations with Russia but clearly if Congress has voted for the bill he’d be seen as siding with Putin if he didn’t respond positively when it reached his desk. These matters are obviously important for many reasons not least as Trump does need Congress on his side if he has hopes of rescuing his legislative agenda. Elsewhere, today sees senior White House advisor Jared Kushner interviewed by the Senate Intelligence committee, with Donald Trump Jnr. and ex-Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort before Senate committees on Wednesday

US takes center-stage with GDP and Fed FOMC

Economists expect the BEA’s annual revision of national accounts, including GDP, to be a non-event, leaving focus on the advance 2Q GDP estimate and the Fed. BofA expected 2Q GDP growth to accelerate to 2.1% q/q saar on the back of a rebound in consumption. Looking ahead to 2H, the bank anticipates further modest acceleration to 2.3% as residential investment and inventory build recover.

The FOMC is unlikely to significantly change their message at the upcoming meeting. With no Summary of Economic Projections or Press Conference, focus will be on the statement, where we expect the FOMC to tweak the language to emphasize the recent inflation weakness and to double down on balance sheet normalization.

Also watch for Eurozone inflation releases

On Friday, Spain, France and Germany release their preliminary estimates for July inflation: we are expecting prints of -0.4%, -1.5% and 0.1% m/m respectively. After June’s upside surprise, our forecast for EZ inflation remains unchanged at 1.5% in 2017 and 1.0% in 2018, with a slow grinding uptrend for core. In our view, most of the surprise on headline and core inflation was driven by temporary one-offs that should go away as soon as in July, potentially complicating the ECB’s task ahead. We retain our call for a very slow pace of tapering from January 2018 onward.

Here is DB’s breakdown of the week’s main highlights:

  • Monday starts with the July manufacturing, services and composite flash PMIs for Germany, Eurozone and the US. Existing home sales data in the US will also be released.
  • Tuesday, Germany will have the IFO July index for business climate and expectations, while France will report confidence indicators for July. In the US on Tuesday data includes consumer confidence, FHFA house price index, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index and Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
  • Turning to Wednesday, in the UK Q2 GDP is due, while the focus in the US will be the July FOMC rate decision. New home sales data will also be due.
  • For Thursday, the morning session looks quiet with only Euro area M3 money supply data due. Across the pond the US will update its durable and capital goods orders for June as well as the initial jobless claims, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index.
  • Finally, on Friday, the early data is out of Japan where June CPI data is due, while in Europe we have Germany and France providing an update on CPI. Euro area confidence indicators are also due. It’s a bumper end to the week in the US with the advance Q2 GDP report, core PCE and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

Onto other events. On Monday, the UK begins preliminary post-Brexit trade talks with the US, ECB’s Frank Smet’s will speak at Munich and OPEC and non-OPEC meet in Russia to discuss progress with production cuts. On Tuesday, the US secretary of Commerce will address the economic club of Washington. Onto Wednesday the Fed of Minneapolis President will be the first speaker post the FOMC decision. Finally, notable US companies due to report include: Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, AT&T, Twitter, Facebook, McDonalds, GM, Caterpillar, Ford, Boeing, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Exxon, Merck and AbbVie.

Finally, here is Goldman’s preview of the week’s key events alongside consnesus estimates and commentary

The key economic releases this week are the Q2 GDP advance estimate and the Q2 employment cost index on Friday. The statement following the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, July 24

  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (consensus 52.2, last 52.0)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, July preliminary (consensus 54.0, last 54.2)
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS -1.5%, consensus -0.9%, last +1.1%): We look for a 1.5% decline in June existing home sales, following a 1.1% increase in the prior month. Regional housing data released so far suggest a modest slowdown in closed homes sales. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • Tuesday, July 25
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.5% (mom sa) in May on top of a 0.7% gain in April. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.8% in April.
  • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to increase 0.2% in May, following a 0.3% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which rose 5.7% in April.
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 115.0, consensus 116.0, last 118.9): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index declined 3.9pt to 115.0 in July following a moderate increase in the month prior. The index remains close to post-crisis highs. Our forecast mostly reflects softer consumer surveys this month.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus +7, last +7)

Wednesday, July 26

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, June (GS +1.5%, consensus +0.8%, last +2.9%): We estimate new home sales rose 1.5% in June, following a 2.9% increase in the prior month. Single-family building permits rebounded in June, and May new home sales looked abnormally low in the Midwest region, where we anticipate sequential improvement in Wednesday’s report.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 25-26 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we do not expect any policy changes next week and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement. The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further. We also think it is more likely than not that the FOMC will include a nod toward an announcement of balance sheet normalization plans in September.

Thursday, July 27

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS +5.3%, consensus +3.5%, last -0.8%):  Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%);Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%): We expect durable goods orders rebounded 5.3% in the June report, driven by a sharp increase in commercial aircraft orders. Orders commentary from industrial companies remains encouraging, and we estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation rose by a solid 0.5%. We also estimate firmer core capital goods orders (+0.5%). However, manufacturing production growth was relatively modest in June, with a 0.1% gain in ex-auto manufacturing and a 0.2% increase in the capex-sensitive business equipment category. Accordingly, we look of a somewhat softer increase in core capital goods shipments (+0.3%).
  • 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report; Advance goods trade balance, June preliminary (GS -$65.5bn, consensus -$65.0bn, last -$66.3bn): We estimate the goods trade deficit narrowed $0.8bn to $65.5bn in June. Regional port statistics suggest that inbound container volumes pulled back in the month, suggestive of an improvement in the trade deficit.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 22 (GS 250k, consensus 240k, last 233k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 15 (consensus 1,959k, last 1,977k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 17k to 250k in the week ended July 15 following a sharp decline in the prior week. Initial claims can be particularly volatile around this time of year due to summer auto plant shutdowns, and we note the possibility that some of these factory closures shifted one week later (relative to previous years). Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend higher recently following a sharp decline in the first four months of the year.
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus +12, last +11).

Friday, July 28

  • 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +1.9%, consensus +2.5%, last +1.4%); Personal consumption, Q2 (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.8%, last +1.1%): We estimate a +1.9% increase in the first vintage of Q2 GDP (qoq saar), reflecting solid growth in personal consumption (+3.0%) and business fixed investment (+3.3%), but a drag from inventories (-0.4pp). Accordingly, our growth estimate for the domestic final sales component is firmer at +2.3%. We also expect a 4.0% decline in residential investment following a double-digit increase in Q1.
  • 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q2 (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.8%): Following a cycle-high increase in Q1 (+0.8%, qoq sa), we estimate that growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) decelerated to 0.6% in Q2, with the year-over-year pace remaining stable at +2.4%. While we continue to expect firming wage growth in an economy at full employment, we expect mean-reversion to weigh on the pace of growth in incentive-paid industries this quarter, particularly sales and related occupations. Minimum wage increases also likely boosted ECI wage growth in the first quarter, most notably in the leisure and hospitality industry. Finally, wage growth data has been somewhat disappointing in the second quarter, and our wage tracker—which distills signals from several wage measures—fell to 2.3% year-on-year in Q2 from 2.6% in Q1 and a recent peak of 2.8% in mid-2016.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July final (GS 93.2, consensus 93.1, last 93.1): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up 0.1pt to 93.2 in the July final estimate. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rose one-tenth to 2.6% in the preliminary reading – the top of its 12-month range – despite recent declines in gasoline prices that often appear to weigh on survey responses in this component.
  • 01:20 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A at an event hosted by the St. Paul Chamber of Commerce in Oakdale, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected.

Source: BofA, DB, Goldman

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