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Authored by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

Donald Trump has made good on one of his most audacious campaign promises by submitting what he describes as the biggest tax cut in U.S. History. For once, at least, this does not appear to be Trumpian braggadocio. It really may be the mother of all tax cuts. But if passed, what may this bunker buster do to the economy? While I have rarely met a tax cut I didn’t like, this one just may be more likely to send the economy into a downward spiral than it is to send up to orbit.

As I mentioned in my January commentary, Donald Trump’s big-spending, tax-cutting campaign rhetoric threatened to make him the biggest borrower in presidential history. He comes to office at a particularly vulnerable time for budget dynamics. After contracting by nearly two thirds from 2010 to 2015 (from the mind-bending $1.3 trillion to the merely enormous $438 billion), the Federal deficit started expanding again in 2016, moving up to $587 billion (Govt. Publishing Office, Office of Management & Budget (OMB). Current projections have it going up nearly every year over the next two decades. The Congressional Budget Office expects it to permanently surpass $1 trillion annually by 2021 or 2022. But these ominous forecasts were made well before anyone thought Trump had a snowball’s chance of ever becoming president. Now that he is in the office, those projections will be the floor. The ceiling is anyone’s guess.

The forecasts assume that the taxing and spending laws in place during the Obama Administration won’t change. The steep increase in projected deficits towards the end of this decade and into the next is largely driven by the retirement of the Baby Boom generation, which will lead to simultaneous increases in entitlement spending and decreases in tax revenue. This brick wall has been hiding in plain sight for decades but the can-kickers in Washington have serially failed to do anything to avert the inevitable collision.

(These forecasts also optimistically assume that the economy never again enters recession, inflation never again rears its ugly head, and that our creditors never get concerned enough about our growing debt to demand a premium for the risk of financing it.)

But now that Trump occupies the Oval office, this date with destiny may come much sooner…and she will definitely be ordering the lobster.

Before I go negative, let me give credit to Trump for picking the right taxes to cut. He kills the estate tax, an ugly beast that should have been euthanized years ago. Some may see this simply as a gift to the very rich. But legal wizards have long since devised strategies that offer almost complete protection from the death tax. None of these structures offer any real benefit to the businesses these millionaires typically own, or to the economy in general. Killing the tax will cost the government almost nothing, but it will remove tremendous impediments that have prevented family-run companies from growing over generations. He also kills the Alternative Minimum Tax, a complex parallel system of taxation that few understand but somehow manages to ensnare more and more taxpayers every year.

Most importantly, he brings down the corporate tax rate from the globally non-competitive rate of 35% to the much more manageable 15%. Taxing corporations has always been a bad way to raise revenue. Corporations, after all, don’t pay taxes, which are simply treated as a cost of doing business. The real costs are borne by customers, who must pay higher prices, and employees, who must suffer with lower wages. But high domestic corporate taxes have hamstrung U.S. corporations and greatly contributed to the decline of American manufacturing. A more competitive corporate sector will shower benefits on all manner of consumers and employees.

On the individual tax side, his decisions are much more problematic. Although Trump makes the sensible decision of compressing the seven individual tax brackets into just three (10%, 25%, and 35%), and doubles the standard personal deductions (thereby saving many people from the hassles of itemization), the headline-grabbing component of the proposals has to do with the lowering of the “pass-through” tax rate to the same 15% level that applies to corporations. This means that wealthy business owners, highly paid freelancers, and partners at law firms, medical groups, and management consultancies, will qualify for the 15% rate. This will be a huge windfall to some of the richest people in the country, who typically pay the highest marginal tax rate (currently 39%). And since the top one percent account for nearly 50% of tax revenue, this one provision promises to cost Uncle Sam plenty and to dramatically shake up the corporate landscape.

Small business owners and independent contractors will in fact receive the benefit of the 15% pass through rate. But “Mom and Pop” entrepreneurs rarely have income that is high enough to be taxed at the higher rates. These smaller earners will likely be be trading a 15% tax for a 15% tax. All the big benefits will go to the really big fish. Whereas the vast majority of Tom Cruise’s income would have been taxed at the 39% rate, it will now be taxed at just 15%. His taxes will be reduced by nearly 60% from current law. The same holds true, in lesser degree, to lawyers, doctors, and consultants making more than a few hundreds of thousands of dollars annually.

Is there any reason that could justify why a hedge fund manager making a million dollars per year should pay 15%, but a full time CEO at a corporation making half that would be subject to the highest marginal rate of 35%? It’s absurd. Now I’m not a big fan of the “progressive” tax system, whereby the tax rate goes up with income. I think a “flat” tax system, in which everyone paid the same rate, would be better. (Ideally I would like to see income taxes replaced by far less onerous and intrusive consumption taxes). But I certainly don’t believe in a “regressive” tax system in which lower-earning citizens pay higher rates than those at the top. But that’s exactly what Trump is trying to do.

Given this wide disparity in tax rates, we can assume that the employment landscape will adjust dramatically. We should expect that legions of highly-paid full-time employees will start to form Limited Liability Corporations (LLCs) to work freelance rather than as employees. There are few barriers that would prevent such a shift, and the growth of internet-based work scenarios will continue to break down the traditional barrier between employee and freelancer. Yes, there are some labor rules that seek to separate employees from freelancers, but those rules may be easily circumvented, especially when the reward is so great. Rather than envy the lawyer earning more and paying less, the CEOs of the country will likely incorporate and sell their services freelance to their former employers.

This shift will mean that a great many of the country’s highest earners will be paying taxes at the lowest rate. As a result, the reductions in tax revenue would likely be far greater than what is predicted in the standard modeling. 

But unlike most prior tax cuts, the Trump version does not even make any attempt to balance the cuts with corresponding cuts in government spending. If Trump’s tax cuts don’t immediately generate sustained 4% growth or more, we may be staring down the barrel of $2 to $3 trillion in annual deficits. Is this an experiment that we really want to try?

But even if the reforms can kick the economy into higher gear, thereby creating higher revenues with lower rates (The Laffer Curve), our current low interest rate environment provides significant obstacles to permit that growth to be sustained. If growth kicks up to the 4% range, the Federal Reserve will have to accelerate its rate increase schedule. Allowing rates to remain two to three percent below the growth rate could risk an overheated economy with inflation spiraling out of control. These higher rates will act as a stiff headwind to an economy that has grown increasingly dependent on ultra low rates.

But increases in rates would also cost the economy in another way. Our current bonded national debt is ready to surge past the $20 trillion mark. The Trump tax cuts will push it beyond that very quickly. If the Fed raises rates to keep pace with higher growth, then the Government will have to pay much more to finance the outstanding debt. At $20 trillion, every point of increase in interest rates will cost the government $200 billion annually. At that level, if interest rates were at 3.75%, instead of the current .75%, then the Federal Government would have to come up with about another $600 billion per year in interest payments. (That number will be much higher when the debt grows past $20 Trillion).

But it's not just Uncle Sam that is over-loaded with debt. Corporations and households would see their interest costs surge as well with rising interest rates. So what lower taxes giveth, higher interest rates will taketh away. 

Consider the housing market. Not only will higher interest rates substantially increase the cost of home ownership (through higher mortgage rates), but Trump’s tax proposals will dramatically increase the cost of ownership for those living in high tax states. Under the proposal, homeowners will no longer be able to deduct property taxes, and a doubling of the standard deduction means a much larger percentage of homeowners will not be able to deduct mortgage interest from their federal income tax. Plus, with the top tax rate reduced from 39.6% to 15%, the mortgage interest deduction will be far less valuable to those higher earners who can still take advantage of it. Higher mortgage rates and lower tax subsidies will increase the cost and decrease the appeal of home ownership. This could lead to a crash in real estate prices, especially in the high end of the market. Falling prices could wipe out what little home equity many Americas have left, and lead to another wave of foreclosures. The losses to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be significant, with the costs falling directly on the Federal government, further driving up annual deficits. 

The reality is that years of massive deficits, runaway government spending, artificially low interest rates, and three rounds of quantitative easing, have left the economy so sick that any tax cut large enough to revive it may actually kill it instead. The only silver lining to this cloud may be that the coming fiscal train wreck leaves lawmakers no choice but to slash government spending. If the real Republican agenda is to starve the beast, its success is assured.

via http://ift.tt/2qh51cM Tyler Durden

Two days ago we looked at the latest troubling development in US home price trends: a new bubble appears to be emerging in all the “usual suspect” places. As we noted on Thursday, “home prices in markets that bubbled over back in 2006/2007, like Las Vegas and San Francisco, got cut in half in 2009 but have since doubled again of their lows.  Meanwhile, markets like Denver and Dallas that didn’t participate as much in the 2007 mania are now surging to all-time highs, with Dallas prices up 55% over the past 5 years.”

The Wall Street Journal added that some of the home buying behaviors of consumers, like paying prices well above appraisal values and waiving home inspections, are starting to be eerily reminiscent of 2006:

In some markets, bidding wars are breaking out. Agents said some buyers are kicking in extra cash when properties don’t appraise for the asking price, and some are waiving their right to home inspections.

 

“It can’t be sustained,” said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance and a former chief economist at mortgage giant Fannie Mae, referring to the frenzied buying. “It can’t go on forever.”

Other signs of overexuberance have emerged, including surging levels of licensed Realtors all chasing a quick buck.

The number of licensed Realtors has jumped by nearly 25% since 2012, hitting a nine-year high in 2016 and sitting just 9% below the peak in 2006, according to real-estate consultant John Burns. In Denver, homes are selling briskly. The median number of days that homes spent on the market declined to eight in the first three months of the year from 61 in 2012, according to Redfin. Home prices rose 8.5% in Denver over the year ended in February, according to Case-Shiller.

 

Nicki Thompson, an agent in Denver, said she recently had a listing that was on the market for two weekends at $1.2 million and she received multiple all-cash offers above the listing price. 

 

“It’s just crazy,” she said.

And for a practical example of just how crazy it truly is, take this renovated 2-bedroom, 1,948 sq. ft house first built in 1951 in the Eagle Rock section of Los Angeles, which was listed in mid-March for $699,000, was estimated by Redfin at $780,000, and sold yesterday for $980,888 (more than $500/sq foot) and 40% above asking, just over a month after it was first listed.

Maybe it was the house’s profile “description” that unleashed the buying frenzy:

In the 1960s-80s drums played on some of the most famous pop songs known (Good Vibrations, Mrs. Robinson, A Little Less Conversation, to name a few) were built in this garage in our beloved Eagle Rock. A. F. Blaemire and his wife, Kirsten, filled this home with music and creativity for decades, and now it’s ready for its next inspired owner! With freshly refinished hardwood floors and repainted interior, 5208 Monte Bonito is a blank canvas with great potential. The rooms are bright and spacious, including a downstairs recreation room perfect for a jam room, art studio, den (or all of the above!). The two-car garage has direct access to the house and an additional storage room. The back yard has plenty of space for entertaining and gardening – there is already an avocado tree, an orange tree, and a pitaya to get you started! Views of the Eagle Rock from the master bedroom, and sunset views from the front porch make this the ideal setting to call home.

Then again, maybe not.

So what do you get for just under a million in LA these days? Not much: two bedrooms, less than two bathrooms, a 2 car garage, a decorative fireplace, a rec room, and a 7,195 sq foot lot.

Here are some photos showing what a “million dollar house” looks like in the latest US housing bubble.

via http://ift.tt/2qqXnJ8 Tyler Durden

Authored by Patrick O'Shaughnessy via InvestorsFieldGuide.com,

My guest this week is Danny Moses, who was directly in the middle of the biggest trades in market history, chronicled by Michael Lewis in his book the Big Short.

Danny was the head trader on the Frontpoint team led by Steve Eisman, which was one of a small group of firms that figured out, in real time, the dire situation with mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis, and how to build a portfolio to bet against the U.S. housing market.

We cover his part in the Big Short story, but also lots of other interesting ground, including the state of sell-side research and financial markets. I love conversations with traders because they live and breathe market risk. You’ll be able to see why quickly in this great conversation with Danny Moses.

Show Notes

2:57 – (first question) –  The four traits that would give someone the best odds to succeed as an analyst

7:40 – Danny’s take on his role during the financial crises, which was highlighted in ‘The Big Short.’

14:47 – Looking at the first moment that there was something wrong but that there was a way to trade against it during the crisis

17:13 – Exploring the moment when Danny had to reconcile an amazing trade against a dangerous scenario for the US economy

20:17 – What was the relationship with the other people that discovered parts of this unraveling

22:19 – Danny recounts working with Michael Lewis

24:16 – Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt

24:40 – Going back to the auto lending crisis in the 1990’s

28:22 – The evolution of the sell side, what’s good about it today and what was bad about in the early 2000’s.

34:55 – Why the markets appear to be broken right now

"It's all about how you get paid… this is the worst, in aggregate, that Wall Street research has ever been, because I believe it is compromised… fundamental investing has gone by the wayside, you're better off knowing which ETFs hold this stock than what this company even does.. that's scary to me."

 

"In order for us to get back to fundamentals mattering, the market needs to have a major crash or unwind."

37:20 – How markets were much different back in the 1990’s and what made them more interesting.

40:16 – Has the information provided by the sell-side to the buy side gone down since the financial crisis because the quality of research is lower

43:24 – What was about financial services that Danny found attractive for an active strategy?

47:14 – What was the first idea where Danny was applying his filter and realized the market had it wrong.

48:11 – When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management

49:01  – How did Danny think about valuation as part of the bottom up framework?

55:30 – Danny tells the story of how his friend Ira had to run and help bail out Dominque Strauss Kahn, the head of the IMF at the time.

58:30 – The Fixer

58:40 – How do you become the bail bondsmen to the stars

1:01:02 – Open: An Autobiography

1:01:25 – What is next for Danny Moses?

1:02:33 –The root of Danny’s interest in doing media.

1:04:52 – Kindest thing anyone has ever done for Danny

via http://ift.tt/2pwqldj Tyler Durden

In an article just published in the Washington Post, Donald Trump looks back at his first 100 days in office and explains, in his own words, how he "kept his promise to Americans." As we showed earlier, it is likely the case that those who origianlly voted for Trump will agree, while those who voted for Hillary, will not.

Here is Donald Trump, as posted in the WaPo.

"In my first 100 days, I kept my promise to Americans"

One hundred days ago, I took the oath of office and made a pledge: We are not merely going to transfer political power from one party to another, but instead are going to transfer that power from Washington, D.C., and give it back to the people.

In the past 100 days, I have kept that promise — and more.

Issue by issue, department by department, we are giving the people their country back. After decades of a shrinking middle class, open borders and the mass offshoring of American jobs and wealth, this government is working for the citizens of our country and no one else.

The same establishment media that concealed these problems — and profited from them — is obviously not going to tell this story. That is why we are taking our message directly to America.

We have opened the White House doors to listen, engage and act. We’ve invited in labor leaders, factory owners, police officers, farmers, veterans and Democrats, Republicans and independents.

The change began with the termination of the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a 12-nation pact that would have shipped millions more jobs to other countries.

But leaving the TPP was only the beginning. We have also launched an investigation into foreign trading abuses and taken steps to protect the production of American steel and aluminum. After years of federal contracts going to foreign bidders, we are ensuring that government agencies enforce “Buy American” rules and give preference to American companies — and that American companies hire American workers.

Crucially, to bring back our jobs, we are going to pursue a complete renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement: We’ve lost nearly a third of our manufacturing jobs in the 23 years since that terrible deal was approved.

At the center of our economic agenda, we’ve undertaken the most far-reaching effort in history to remove job-killing regulations. I’ve ordered that for every one new regulation, two old regulations must be eliminated. We’ve signed a record 13 Congressional Review Act resolutions to scrap job-crushing regulations, and I’ve signed 29 pieces of legislation in total — a mark not surpassed in the first 100 days since Harry S. Truman.

Those newly enacted laws include Veterans’ Choice legislation — which became law while at the same time we’ve increased by 42 percent the number of veterans approved to see the doctor of their choosing. And we’ve provided transparency by publishing all wait times at the Veterans Affairs health system online, backed up by a new Veterans Affairs Office of Accountability.

On energy, the change has been profound. We’ve canceled restrictions on the production of oil, natural gas and clean coal.

What we’ve accomplished on immigration and criminal enforcement is nothing short of historic. After decades of unending illegal immigration and mass uncontrolled entry, we’ve turned the tide as never before — illegal border-crossings are down 73 percent. Visa processes are being reformed to substantially improve vetting and screening, and we’ve launched prototypes and bidding for the border wall to stop the scourge of drugs, human trafficking and illegal immigrants from coming into our country.

Federal law enforcement has begun a crackdown on sanctuary cities that harbor criminal aliens — because we know the first duty of government is to protect American citizens.

The Departments of Homeland Security, Justice and State, and the director of national intelligence, have formed an inter-agency group for the express purpose of dismantling transnational criminal cartels. The handcuffs have been removed from our prosecutors, and they’re targeting the drug dealers and gang members who prey on our citizens — and they’re working to eradicate the violent cartel MS-13.

The change on defense has been profound as well. The Defense Department has begun to rebuild and restore our military readiness. We’ve reasserted American leadership by holding the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria accountable for its monstrous use of banned chemical weapons against helpless, innocent civilians. Our successful missile strike enforced the red line that the previous administration drew but ignored, thus restoring our credibility with our friends and our deterrence with our foes. Finally, NATO countries are starting to pay billions of dollars more since I have made clear that the United States expects all of its allies to pay their fair share.

I delivered on one of my biggest promises, appointing and confirming a new justice to the Supreme Court who will be faithful to the U.S. Constitution. This is the first time a new justice has been confirmed in the first 100 days in 136 years.

As we’ve made these changes — on the border, on our economy, on our security — confidence has soared. And a survey of manufacturing reveals record-breaking optimism in the future. Consumer confidence hit a 16-year high . Thousands of new jobs are being re-shored back to America — including jobs at Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Sprint, Intel and so many more.

We are proving that Buy and Hire American isn’t just a slogan — it’s now the policy of the U.S. government. It, along with the many other things we are doing, will Make America Great Again.

No longer will we listen to the same failed voices of the past who brought us nothing but war overseas, poverty at home and the loss of companies, jobs and our wealth to countries that have taken total advantage of the United States.

The White House is once again the People’s House. And I will do everything in my power to be the People’s President — to faithfully, loyally and proudly champion the incredible citizens who love this nation and who call this God-blessed land their home.

* * *

Separately, Trump is holding a rally in Harrisburg, PA which is expected to start at 7:30pm ET.

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This could be the first official map produced by the European Union to exclude the UK. But it is also an inaccurate one: the UK is still a member state of the EU.

As BigThink.com's Frank Jacobs writes, the map shows the unemployment rates of the member states – and the stark differences for those rates between member states in the north and south of the Union. But the eye is immediately drawn to the land mass of the United Kingdom: coloured not in the blues or oranges that indicate unemployment rates in the EU, but the grey of the non-member states that dot the map. 

Those non-members include the usual suspects: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Andorra, Albania and five of the seven post-Yugoslav states (Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Macedonia; Slovenia and Croatia have acceded to the EU). Squeezed between Poland and Lithuania is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Russia proper and other countries in eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa are whited out.

The UK now joins the grey countries on the map. But this is not a map produced to satisfy the wishful thinking of those hardline Brexiteers who can't wait for 2019. This is an official publication of the European Commission, one of the highest institutions of the European Union. Despite the fact that, for almost two more years, the EU still includes Britain.

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Via TheAntiMedia.org,

PSYOP/MISOC targets foreign governments, groups, and individuals. The government program is similar to journalism, a mode of communication that spreads information, but often spins the narrative, according to Colonel Curtis D. Boyd, Chief of Staff of the JFK Special Warfare Center and School at Fort Bragg, who gave a lecture on “The MISTRY* of PSYOP: Putting MISO in Perspective” in 2011.

The mission of the Military Information Support Operations Command (MISOC) is to influence enemy, neutral, and friendly nations and forces into holding favorable opinions and/or taking complementary actions regarding ongoing operations by the United States and its allies.

“Senior ranking U.S. military leaders have so distorted the truth when communicating with the U.S. Congress and American people in regards to conditions on the ground in Afghanistan that the truth has become unrecognizable, ” Lt. Col. Daniel Davis told Democracy Now! in 2012.

Before his death, Michael Hastings was one of the first to obtain Lt. Col. Davis’s 84-page report and published it in Rolling Stone magazine.

In February 2012, Hastings was quoted in regard to the report:

“I think it’s one of the most significant documents that we’ve seen from an active-duty Army officer in terms of how they view the war in Afghanistan, even the war in Iraq. You can look at this as a significant document about the last 10 years of conflict in America. And it’s not so much as what Colonel Davis is saying, though that’s very important, too. It’s the fact that you have a 17-year Army veteran, who’s done four tours—two in Afghanistan and two in Iraq—who has decided to risk his entire career—because he has two-and-a-half more years left before he gets a pension—because he feels that he has a moral obligation to do so.”

MISO manipulates their targets into distributing information using logic, fear, desire, and other mental factors to trigger desired emotions, attitudes, or behaviors. It is vital for MISO communicators to fully comprehend how the target population acts, thinks, and communicates.

In 2010, the unpopular Psychological Operations field was rebranded as Military Information Support and Operations. PSYOP = MISO. The unit, which currently operates under U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC), is comprised of less than 3,000 members. MISO activities are built upon the idea that human will is shaped by information, beliefs, and perceptions.

While speaking to Business Insider about the enactment of the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012, Lt. Col. Daniel Davis described MISOC’s overall objective of influencing target audiences to hold favorable opinions of the U.S. and its allies by using modes of communication similar to journalism:

“In context, Colonel Leap is implying we ought to change the law to enable Public Affairs officers to influence American public opinion when they deem it necessary to ‘protect a key friendly center of gravity, to wit US national will.’”

In the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act, the use of psychological operations through propaganda on U.S. civilian populations was legalized. This type of information warfare comes in the form of propaganda approved by the Broadcasting Board of Governors.

Per the SF Gate:

“The Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012 appears to serve this purpose by allowing for the American public to be a target audience of U.S. government-funded information campaigns.

 

“Lt. Col. Davis also quotes Brigadier General Ralph O. Baker — the Pentagon officer responsible for the Department of Defense’s Joint Force Development — who defines Information Operations (IO) as activities undertaken to ‘shape the essential narrative of a conflict or situation and thus affect the attitudes and behaviors of the targeted audience.’“

Last month, a pair of Military Information Support Operations (MISO) instructors from Special Operations Command Forward Northwest Africa provided training to a small group of Moroccans in Tifnit, Morocco. This opportunity was only possible because of Exercise Flintlock 2017, which involved more than 2,000 military personnel from 24 African and western nations.

“To conduct good [information operations], good MISO, you need an overall end state for what you’re trying to accomplish,” said the MISO element leader to Joel Harding. “Engaging the people — getting them the proper amount of information, the right information, through whatever means they receive the information from—showing them we’ll back up what we say with what we’ll do, they’ll, in turn, trust us or the host nation government.”

A MISO communicator must understand exactly what they are trying to communicate before engaging with a target they seek a connection to, in addition to where and how that information exchange should take place. An optimized audience analysis is critical for successful MISO actions. In order to be effective, MISO-trained personnel must be experts when it comes to current events, history, culture, linguistics, and socio-political characteristics of their intended audience.

MISOC Capabilities:

The EC-130J Commando Solo: Inside The Air Force’s Secret Psyops Plane

Consider any modern U.S. military operation, and chances are that the Air Force’s EC-130J Commando Solo MISOC plane was nearby attempting to influence the minds of the civilians below.

What exactly does the EC-130J Commando Solo do? The U.S. Air Force uses the Lockheed aircraft in support of psychological operations for MISOC. The specially-modified four-engine Hercules transport is tasked with conducting Military Information Support Operations (MISO) and civil affairs broadcasts in radio, television, and military communications bands.

How has the Lockheed EC-130J Commando Solo been modified? The aircraft has received enhanced navigation systems, self-protection equipment, air refueling capabilities, and the ability to broadcast their own signal over AM and FM radio, UHF and VHF television bands, or override broadcast stations on the ground on all worldwide standards. The 193rd Special Operations Wing operates a fleet of three of these EC-130J aircraft.

They have quite literally been converted into flying radio and television stations.

Trump April 26th AM Radio Broadcasts From September 2016

A recent internet conspiracy involving two AM radio broadcasts recorded on video in New Jersey and one in Iowa from September 2016 warned of what appeared to be an imminent attack on Washington D.C. Is this how a MISO operation might look to an ordinary civilian? Could conspiracy theories and numerous strange ‘coincidences’ be manipulated to trigger desired emotions, attitudes, or behaviors in a target audience? Are we suggesting this is what actually occurred? Certainly not. It is impossible to verify without behind-the-scenes access. However, such a tactic seems to match MISOC capabilities and strategy.

Could this AM radio broadcast have been a trap set in the battlefield of modern media information operations orchestrated by MISOC? Who knows.

Now here’s where things get weird…

On April 26th, we tracked an EC-130J Commando Solo plane on radar taking off from an airfield just north of Harrisburg, PA. The Air Force’s secret psyops plane then flew to Niagara Falls, lowered altitude, and circled the area multiple times. This occurred during a massive nuclear attack drill (Operation Gotham Shield) surrounding New York City, in addition to a massive Washington D.C. terrorism drill.

Throughout the day, we also tracked the following military aircraft:

Boeing 747-200B (Air Force One)
Boeing E-4B Nightwatch (Doomsday Plane)
Boeing C-32A (Air Force Two, VP and First Lady)
Boeing E-6B Mercury (New Doomsday Plane)
Boeing C-32B AFSOC (Terror Response, CIA Activities)

Lockheed EC-130H Compass Call (MISOC)

What was the EC-130J Commando Solo doing circling Niagara Falls at a low altitude? Before we get too far ahead of our ourselves, yes, what we witnessed on radar was also observed by civilians on the ground.

Could the U.S. government be running drills to someday broadcast their own signal over AM and FM radio — or UHF and VHF television bands — by overriding broadcast stations on the ground using the EC-130J Commando Solo when the next major terrorist attack, or perhaps an EMP, takes place? Or are they already doing so?

Could it be that these military aircraft were rehearsing U.S. plans for a doomsday situation? Ironically, or perhaps not, the United States launched an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile off the coast California on the very same day — during escalated tensions with North Korea.

MISO carries out missions for the United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC), and USASOC’s job is to synchronize planning of global operations against terrorist networks.

“Military Information Support Operations (MISO), previously known as Psychological Operations (PSYOP), uses themes and messages to reach target audiences in order to influence their emotions, motives, reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.” – Reaching The Target Audience, a thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command.

If MISOC is manipulating targets into spreading information about ongoing operations using only logic, fear, desire, or other mental factors to trigger specific emotions, attitudes, or behaviors of U.S. civilian populations, this is exactly how it could be done. This is how it has already been done in foreign countries.

“Just as important to understanding NS propaganda is the importance of conducting a thorough Target Audience Analysis(TAA). The process of understanding a target audience is critical to determining if your Target Audience is susceptible and capable of being influenced. If a MISO operator does not understand the depth of an individual’s condition, concerns, fears, ambitions, and vulnerabilities, then MISO will not be effective. It is hoped that this document will assist in a more analytical formulation of Target Audience Analysis concepts, plans, programs, themes, and messages that can be synchronized effectively with national policy and commander’s mission. MISO can have an incredible impact on a populace if it is planned, synchronized, and conducted properly.” – Reaching The Target Audience, a thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command.

Have Americans fallen victim to themselves, being psychologically manipulated by their own government into an unknown end goal? A massive campaign USASOC has tasked MISOC with carrying out by using the current events, culture, history, news websites, conspiracy theories, and socio-political characteristics of their intended target audience?

via http://ift.tt/2psBKsL Tyler Durden

Two weeks after winning the Turkish constitutional referendum by a modest but decisive margin, president – or perhaps it is now despot – Erdogan decided to take his newly decreed powers for a spin and overnight in rapid succession surprised foreign observers when Turkey decreed that it would ban TV dating shows, fire an additional 4,000 public officials and also ban Wikipedia.

TURKEY BANS DATING PROGRAMS ON TV AND RADIO: OFFICIAL GAZETTE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 29, 2017

The country’s Official Gazette published the decrees on Saturday evening. The first named thousands of civil servants to be dismissed, including nearly 500 academics and more than 1,000 Turkish military personnel. The decree also reinstated 236 people to their jobs. The second decree, among other things, bans radio and television programs for “finding friends and spouses” according to AP.

The latest purge follows more than 47,000 people have been arrested and 100,000 have been terminated for alleged connections to terror organizations, and takes place with Turkey under a state of emergency resulting from last summer’s failed “coup” attempt which Erdogan blamed on the “shadow state” directed by the cleric Fethullah Gulen, who currently resides in rural Pennsylvania.

Erdogan’s decree also banned several popular TV dating shows, a move that reportedly had been in the worls for months. 

“In radio and television broadcasting services, such programmes in which people are introduced to find a friend…. cannot be permitted,” said the text of the decree.

Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus said in March that the ban was in the pipeline, arguing the shows do not fit in with Turkish traditions and customs.

 

“There are some strange programmes that would scrap the institution of family, take away its nobility and sanctity,” Kurtulmus said at the time.

Some see in this decree the first traces of Turkey sliding back away from the secular state, established less than a century ago by the creator of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and toward conservative Islam under Erdogan. However, AKP supporters have responded that dating shows receive thousands of complaints every year and the ban is in the public interest.

Separately, Turkey also said it had blocked all access to Wikipedia; the country’s Information and Communication Technologies Authority implemented the ban against the online encyclopedia because Wikipedia “had failed to remove content promoting terror and accusing Turkey of cooperation with various terror groups” according to AFP. “There was no indication when the ban might be removed, with a formal court order expected to follow in the coming days.”

In response to the news, Wikipedia’s founder Jimmy Wales tweeted that “access to information is a fundamental human right. Turkish people, I will always stand with you to fight for this right.”

In an ironic twist, AFP notes that the incident quickly spawned its own separate Wikipedia entry, “Wikipedia blocked in Turkey.” This is what it says:

On the morning of 29 April 2017, following news from Turkey Blocks that all language versions of Wikipedia had been blocked in Turkey, several reports were published of the event. The BBC reported that the Turkish authorities had blocked all access to Wikipedia in the country from 8.00 GMT. No reason was given by Turkey’s Information and Communication Technologies Authority which simply stated: “”After technical analysis and legal consideration based on the Law Nr. 5651 [governing the internet], an administrative measure has been taken for this website.” Voice of America reported that Turkish media had explained the blockage was a result of “terror-related content”. NDTV said that the move had caused strong reactions on the social media against the decision to deny access to “one of the world’s most popular websites”.

 

Law No. 5651, known as the Internet Act (IA), was enacted on 4 May 2007. The purpose of this law has been described by the PTC as follows: “There are 2 reasons for the law to be brought out. The first reason; determining the liability and the responsibility of collective use providers, access providers, location providers and content providers which are the main actors of the Internet. The other reason is to determine the procedures and fundamentals related to the specific crimes committed over the Internet and fighting these through content, location and access providers.” More recently, the law has been used to censor individuals, journalists and the media. The European Council’s Venice Commission has found the law to be particularly controversial.

 

Now Wikipedia is readable but not editable with FreeWiki by Crypt.space in Turkey

Over the past several years, Turkey has repeatedly blocked – so far on a temporary basis – popular websites such as Facebook and Twitter, usually shortly after major events such as mass protests or terror attacks take place.

With Erdogan now having what is effectively absolute power, it is likely that many more shutdowns, this time permament, of popular social networks and media outlets are in Turkey’s immediate future, especially as Erdogan is likely poised to coalesce even more power. As the following AFP chart shows, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been virtually unopposed in 12 successive elections, as well as referendums, since president Erdogan he came to power in 2002.

Which is to be expected with Europe constantly turning a blind eye to Erdogan’s transgressions due to his strategic location at the nexus between Asia and Europe. In the past two years, Erdogan’s leverage has only grown as there are now over 2 million Syrian refugees held inside Turkey’s borders, which could be deployed in direction Europe, any time Brussels, or Berlin, engages in any activity that Erdogan disproves of. Which also explains how Erdogan managed to accumulate virtually supreme power while all of Turkey’s “democratic” peers and neighbors looked the other way.

via http://ift.tt/2oWuBzY Tyler Durden

Authored by Adam Johnson via FAIR.org,

Buoyed by a total of 18 speculative verb forms – five “mays,” eight “woulds” and five “coulds” – New York Times reporters David E. Sanger and William J. Broad (4/24/17) painted a dire picture of a Trump administration forced to react to the growing and impending doom of North Korea nuclear weapons.

“As North Korea Speeds Its Nuclear Program, US Fears Time Will Run Out” opens by breathlessly establishing the stakes and the limited time for the US to “deal with” the North Korean nuclear “crisis”:

Behind the Trump administration’s sudden urgency in dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis lies a stark calculus: A growing body of expert studies and classified intelligence reports that conclude the country is capable of producing a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks.

 

That acceleration in pace—impossible to verify until experts get beyond the limited access to North Korean facilities that ended years ago—explains why President Trump and his aides fear they are running out of time.

The front-page summary was even more harrowing, with the editors asserting there’s “dwindling time” for “US action” to stop North Korea from assembling hundreds of nukes:

From the beginning, the Times frames any potential bombing by Trump as the product of a “stark calculus” coldly and objectively arrived at by a “growing body of expert[s].” The idea that elements within the US intelligence community may actually desire a war—or at least limited airstrikes—and thus may have an interest in presenting conflict as inevitable, is never addressed, much less accounted for.

The most spectacular claim—that North Korea is, at present, “capable of producing a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks”—is backed up entirely by an anonymous blob of “expert studies and classified intelligence reports.” To add another red flag, Sanger and Broad qualify it in the very next sentence as a figure that is “impossible to verify.” Which is another way of saying it’s an unverified claim.

When asked on Twitter if he could say who, specifically, in the US government is providing this figure, Broad did not immediately respond.

Other key claims are either not attributed or attributed to anonymous “officials” (emphasis added):

Unless something changes, North Korea’s arsenal may well hit 50 weapons by the end of Mr. Trump’s term, about half the size of Pakistan’s. American officials say the North already knows how to shrink those weapons so they can fit atop one of its short- to medium-range missiles — putting South Korea and Japan, and the thousands of American troops deployed in those two nations, within range.

To offer a bit of outside perspective, Sanger and Broad interview Siegfried S. Hecker, a Stanford professor who directed the Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico in the late ’80s and early ’90s. The only time he speaks directly to the threat, he does so in the context of a nuclear accident:

At any moment, Dr. Hecker said on a call to reporters organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a live weapon could turn into an accidental nuclear detonation or some other catastrophe.

“I happen to believe,” he said, “the crisis is here now.”

Hecker and other semi-neutral observers (Hecker worked for the Department of Defense for several years) are understandably worried about more nuclear weapons in the aggregate, especially in the hands of a relatively poor country with a long history of botched missile attempts. But who, exactly, is making the article’s most alarmist predictions? It’s unclear.

Naturally, the specter of North Korea creating an assembly line of nuclear weapons—by far the sexiest part of the story—was the lead in subsequent write-ups. Within hours, this meme spread to a half-dozen other outlets:

“North Korea’s Growing Nuclear Threat, in One Statistic”

Here is the most frightening thing you’ll read all day: Growing numbers of US intelligence officials believe North Korea can produce a new nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks.

—Vox (4/25/17)

“North Korea Will ‘Cross The Point of No Return’ With Sixth Nuclear Test”

Defense experts estimate that the North is capable of producing a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks, reports the New York Times.

—Daily Caller, 4/25/17)

“North Korea Could Produce a Nuclear Weapon Every Six Weeks, Experts Are Warning”

—Yahoo News (4/25/17)

“Residents of China Fear Radiation From North Korea Nuclear Tests”

Experts say the country is capable of producing a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks, the New York Times reported Monday.

—UPI (4/25/17)

“China Warns North Korea Will ‘Cross the Point of No Return’ if It Carries out a Sixth Nuclear Test, as Secretive Country Stages Its ‘Largest Ever Firing Drill'”

…amid fears the secretive state can create a nuke every six weeks.

—Daily Mail (4/25/17)

“North Korea Is Capable of Producing a Nuclear Bomb Every Six or Seven Weeks”

—News.com.au (4/26/17)

Even New York Times columnist Nick Kristof jumped on the meme, magically turning “capable of producing” into “will soon be churning out”:

Excellent on the North Korea challenge, as Kim Jong-un will soon be churning out 1 nuke every 7 weeks https://t.co/jIlZBe2lc6 by @SangerNYT

— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) April 25, 2017

But from whence did this meme come? Who, exactly, made this claim? Is there any dissent within the community of “experts” on this prediction? Is there an official document somewhere with people’s names on it who can later be held accountable if it turns out to be bogus?

Once again, the essential antecedents of war are being established based on anonymous “experts” and “officials,” and hardly anyone notices, much less pushes back.

via http://ift.tt/2qqMgjj Tyler Durden

via http://ift.tt/2oK6yZ2 Reggie Middleton