iftttwall

Having spiked exuberantly in November and December following Trump’s election, Empire Fed’s manufacturing survey limped lower in January, missing expectations, and was revised lower as Trumphoria fades.

 

 

More worrisome still is thespike in prices paid (from 22.6 to 36.1) and tumble in new orders (from 10.4 to 3.1) once again suggesting stagflationary forces are simmering just beneath the surface of equity market exuberance.

via http://ift.tt/2j4A2d2 Tyler Durden

In what follows, I update my annual Misery Index calculations. A Misery Index was first constructed by economist Art Okun as a way to provide President Lyndon Johnson with a snapshot of the economy. 

The original Misery Index was just a simple sum of a nation’s annual inflation rate and its unemployment rate. The Misery Index has been modified several times, first by Robert Barro of Harvard and then by myself. My modified Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. A higher Misery Index score reflects higher levels of “misery,” and it’s a simple enough metric that a busy president without time for extensive economic briefings can understand at a glance.

Below is the 2016 Misery Index table. For consistency and comparability, all data come from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Venezuela holds the inglorious spot of most miserable country for 2016, as it did in 2015. The failures of the socialist, corrupt petroleum state have been well documented over the past year, including when Venezuela became the 57th instance of hyperinflation in the world.

Argentina holds down the second most miserable rank, and the reasons aren’t too hard to uncover. After the socialist Kirchner years, Argentina is transitioning away from the economy-wracking Kirchner policies, but many problematic residues can still be found in Argentina’s underlying economic framework.

Brazil, at number 3, is a hotbed of corruption and incompetence, as the recent impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff indicates. It’s similar in South Africa, at number 4, where corruption runs to the very highest office. President Zuma of South Africa just recently survived impeachment after the Constitutional Court unanimously decided that Zuma failed to uphold the country’s constitution.

Egypt, ranked fifth most miserable, is mired in exchange controls, a thriving Egyptian pound black market, and military-socialist rule. However, Egypt is likely suffering even more than this table indicates, as the EIU’s inflation estimate for Egypt (17.8 percent) is far off from the Johns Hopkins-Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project, which I direct, estimate of 150.7 percent.

Next, with a Misery Index score of 36.0, is Ukraine, a country still feeling the effects of the highly-publicized civil war that began three years ago. With a civil war and endemic corruption, it comes as a shock to no one that Ukrainians are miserable?

Azerbaijan is plagued by corruption, fraud, and incompetence, and currency devaluations are commonplace – the manat has been devalued twice since 2015, losing 57 percent of its value against the dollar. This weakness in the currency markets makes it difficult to do business, and the Azerbaijani economy has faltered as a result.

Turkey faces a despotic leader in Islamist Erdogan, who devotes all of his resources to staying in power rather than governing the state, leading to a strongly depreciating currency and a populous mired in fear. The Turkish lira has lost over 24 percent of its value against the dollar in the last year, and the economy is in the process of spontaneously dollarizing. Not surprisingly, Turkey is a member of the Fragile Five, which also include Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.

The reasons for Iran’s rank on this list are almost too obvious and plentiful to enumerate, but it’s safe to say that a combination of corruption, incompetence, theocratic-authoritarian rule, and more have led to its state of misery.

Rounding out the ten most miserable countries is Colombia. The Colombian government has been so preoccupied negotiating peace talks with the rebel FARC group that the economy has been neglected, causing interest rates to spike as the economy stands still.

On the other end of the table one finds Japan with the low score of 0.4. Japan’s low misery is not the result of high GDP per capita growth (Japan’s figure is only 0.7 percent), unlike most other countries at the bottom. Instead, it’s Japan’s -3.5 percent inflation rate that drives the score down. China is the next best, with the second-least miserable score of 4.5, almost entirely due to its high (6.3 percent) GDP per capita growth rate.

Also of note on this list is the United States. In President Obama’s final year in office, the United States ranked lower than Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, China, and even Vietnam. What a legacy.

via http://ift.tt/2k0A1Lg Steve H. Hanke

Having been unleashed with a series of angry Trump tweets, the outpouring of carmarker investments in the US has turned into a veritable torrent, and just hours after GM announced it would invest $1 billion in new US factories, adding 1,000 jobs, Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group said it also plans to lift U.S. investment by 50% to $3.1 billion over five years and may build a new plant there. It has become the latest auto firm to announce fresh spending following Ford, Fiat, Toyota and GM, after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to tax imports.

As a reminder, Trump has repeatedly warned of a 35% tax on vehicles imported from Mexico, where many automakers have taken advantage of the country’s lower labor costs. Toyota Motor, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler have all recently unveiled new U.S. investment plans, while over the weekend German automakers were the latest to come under fire from Trump, provoking a blistering response from Angela Merkel.

According to Reuters, Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors which make up the Hyundai Motor Group have not been directly criticized by Trump but they may have felt vulnerable because among major brands, they have one of the lowest ratios of cars built in the United States to cars sold.

To be sure, just like all other carmakers who reacted to pressure by Trump, only to deny they did so, Chung Jin-haeng, president of the group, denied the plan was due to, drumroll, pressure from Trump, adding that a new U.S. factory would depend on whether demand improved under the next U.S. administration.

“We have to be committed to the U.S. market – a strategically important market which can make or break our global success,” he told reporters in Seoul on Tuesday.

Hyundai plans to spend the $3.1 billion to retool existing factories in the United States and boost research on self-driving cars, artificial intelligence and other future technologies, Chung said.

He also said that the group is considering a new U.S. factory to build high-margin, high-demand models such as a U.S.-specific sport utility vehicle and a Genesis premium vehicle. That would come on top of Hyundai’s factory in Montgomery, Alabama, and a Kia plant in West Point, Georgia.

Analyst, meanwhile, are skeptical if this presidential pre-appeasement will work:

Ko Tae-bong, an auto analyst at Hi Investment & Securities, said that while the increased investment would please Trump, it would be risky move to invest in a new U.S. plant. “This could be a trap for Hyundai,” he said, citing peaking U.S. market demand and the group’s sagging global sales. Kia also has a plant in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, at which Hyundai plans to start making cars this year.

But Chung said the group was ‘agonizing’ over the Mexico plant.

 

It just started production last year as Trump threatened a big tax on imports from Mexico and as U.S. demand for smaller cars, which Mexican plants tend to specialize in, is shrinking.

 

Kia said last year that it plans to build 400,000 vehicles a year at its Mexico plant, but a spokesman said on Tuesday that the output figure was subject to change.

Meanwhile, the biggest Korean carmaker is facing rising global pressure Last year Hyundai and Kia posted a 2 percent decline in combined annual global sales – the first fall in nearly two decades, although the duo have forecast sales to rebound 5 percent in 2017.

via http://ift.tt/2jseL0p Tyler Durden

Having plunged to flash-crash lows on Sunday night following leaks of UK PM Theresa May's Brexit speech, cable is soaring this morning as she delivered the speech confirming that both houses of Parliament will vote on the final Brexit deal.

We warned the "surprise" was priced in…

Surprise taken out of tomorrow's speech. GBPUSD squeeze next?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 16, 2017

And as Bloomberg notes, U.K. PM May’s announcement that both houses of Parliament will vote on the final Brexit deal is positive for the pound as the process should ensure that extreme outcomes are avoided, analysts say. The FT notes that the votes is expected in early 2019 and it is unclear what would happen if either house were to reject the deal.  

• “The deal has to be good” to be approved, BofAML strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis says in e-mailed comments
• “Final take on this speech is that May has come across very well. This, in addition to the economic fundamentals, are good arguments for not being aggressively short GBP/USD below 1.20. The way she has come across today almost puts the EU in an out-of-touch position,” Stephen Gallo, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, says in e-mailed comments
• The announcement on the Parliament vote fueled the initial extension of the GBP rally, partly because it raises expectations that MPs less in favor of Brexit could have more influence, according to Josh O’Byrne, strategist at Citigroup; still, big picture hasn’t changed much after this speech
• May didn’t add to “hard-Brexit” fears, and hence the “sell-the-fact” reaction in the market, Manuel Oliveri, strategist at Credit Agricole, says in e-mailed comments

And the result is a chaotic spike in cable – the biggest move since 2008…

via http://ift.tt/2iIRE0w Tyler Durden

Having warned last week that the market is close to a violent unwind of the Trumpflation momentum trade, today RCB’s head of cross-asset strat, Charlie McElliggott, takes a victory lap following Trump’s overnight comments that the dollar is “too strong”, while slamming the Border-Adjustment Tax – a key catalyst for a dollar stronger as much as 15% in the future – and warned that the start of the “pain trade” has arrived.

The full note from RBC’s Charlie McElligott

TRUMP DUMPS BORDER-ADJUSTED TAX, “LONG DOLLAR” TRADES UNDER PRESSURE

Commence “pain trade.” 

Let us begin today by taking it back to last Wednesday’s now-prophetic “RBC Big Picture” note:

“Fundamentally with the USD bull-case, this is a large part of why there is SO much focus on key items like the border-adjusted tax element of the Trump policy push.  A large part of the Dollar’s strength (beyond ‘just’ the data) post- the election has been based upon this, where if the corporate tax rate were cut to say 20%, the Dollar would by economic theory have to then appreciate 20% (and of course too, an additional ‘tax factor’ driving the USD bull-thesis is that a meaningful chunk of $2.5T of profits held overseas by US corporates would be repatriated following a ‘business friendly’ incentive package / one-time cut to the repatriation tax to say 8-10%).

 

There is a view though within some verticals of the business community is that the border-adjusted system represents a very significant risk (consumer retail most notably) to their businesses / the broad economy as imports become more expensive and will create trade distortions (while the CBO itself says that the border-adjusted system would NOT reduce the trade deficit, which is a driver of its political popularity).  There is so much discourse on this issue currently on this topic within the C-suite in fact some in policy circles are now saying they believe it appears increasingly likely that the ‘full’ border tax adjustment (currently in the Houses’ version of the bill) ends up being watered down to a sort of “relocation penalty” (which would likely then appear in the Senate-version of the bill).

 

Again, this is all a hypothetical, but if some of this ‘sense’ around said USD ‘bull driver’ turning potentially bearish was to ‘leak’ into the market, it would take some of the air out of the “long USD” trade–and that is where things could go off the rails.  If the Dollar broke lower, its likely too that bonds and duration would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities ‘pair’ unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB on the high beta trade)…this would be the theoretical path to our next pain-trade or even VaR shock.”

…AND SCENE. 

Overnight, we see that Donald Trump has indeed talked-down the BAT, criticizing it in the WSJ as “too complicated” and stating that the US Dollar is “too strong.”  With this confirmation that the Trump administration is indeed backing-away from the BAT, we see USD smashed-lower against all G10 and all 24 EM currencies, with the Bloomberg USD Index down 1.1%, a 2.5 standard deviation move (relative to the past year’s historical returns). 

As such, expect there to be significant buy-side performance pain today with regards to the below key “long USD”-linked “US reflation” trades (as quoted above) seeing real capitulatory / unwind flows:

• UST complex ripping / curve bull-flattening (2s10s -4.3bps)
• Massive squeezes in Yen, Euro and EMFX as stop-losses are triggered.
• CNH coming unglued -1.0% and through the 6.80 level
• Russell-minis and Spooz spanked to session lows currently
•     EU heavy cyclicals like metals & mining -1.7%
• EU Xover CDX seeing its largest widening day of the year
• Gold squeezing higher +1.3% while Copper is being crushed -2.1%
• VIX ripping / squeezing +12.9%

Per the tea-leaves from Kristen Arey’s CFTC positioning update Friday night, the focus of the pain will come from leveraged funds and their FIC shorts, as the already record shorts in FV and ED grew even-further to NEW record shorts.  This is going to leave a mark, and recall the point I’ve been making on said short—all of the positive PNL from this trade was last year, meaning that chief risk officers are going to be that much quicker to ‘tap out’ on these significantly underwater shorts just 2 weeks into the new year.  Also worth noting that the 14k new VIX shorts added last week will likely be stopped-out.

Upon the US equities session, expect more of the same—‘value factor’ / cyclicals (ex energy which benefits from crude / Dollar relief) are likely to be underperforming defensives / anti-beta / bond proxies, as “long duration” will see major outperformance as per the UST-move.  Expect ‘growth factor’ to see some ‘haven’ status gains too (tech, cons discret) as the January factor mean-reversion should run-further.

I will try to update late day if possible on anecdotal observations on “where to from here” with the USD-unwind. 

via http://ift.tt/2jjOQp4 Tyler Durden

Physical Gold Market Will Trump Paper Gold

John Hathaway of Tocqueville Funds says the physical gold market will defeat the paper gold market leading to a much higher price for the monetary metal in the coming months and years in his Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter (Fourth Quarter 2016 Investor Letter):

Gold rose 8.5% for the year while gold-mining stocks (XAU – Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index stocks) rose 75%. On an annual basis, results were highly satisfactory. However, there was considerable drama beneath the surface that left precious metals investors in a state of anxiety by year-end. Precious metals and mining shares rose sharply through August, and then spent the rest of the year giving back much of the first-half gains. The second half downtrend accelerated into early December, following the unexpected victory by Trump and a hawkish statement after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The question of the hour is whether the 2016 gains were merely a countertrend rally following a four-and-a-half-year decline from all-time highs in 2011, or the beginning of a new leg in the secular bull market that began in 1999, during which gold rose from less than $300/oz. to $1900 in August 2011. We judge the weight of current sentiment, mainstream media opinion, and technical analysis to be extremely bearish, comparable to year-end 2015 just prior to the dramatic gains that followed. We believe that, based on prevailing negativity, the next big change in the gold price will be substantially higher. If so, the 2016 second-half correction will have established a durable higher low from the advance that began at year-end 2015, and would be the precursor to the continuation of the secular advance that began in 2000.

Fundamentals of physical supply and demand remain positive, and are reinforced by the current extended regime of precious metals prices too low to justify expanded mine supply. Global mine output has plateaued; it now seems likely to decline through 2020 and perhaps into the middle of the next decade. As shown in the chart below, discoveries of new ore bodies are at a 25-year low, while the time required to bring new ore bodies into production continues to lengthen, and now stands at nearly 20 years.

Physical demand continues to show steady secular growth, primarily in Asia. Consumption by Turkey, India, China, and Russia alone have exceeded global mine supply since 2013, which means that inventories of physical metal held in Western vaults are being depleted to meet that demand.

Two recent developments (largely ignored by mainstream media) will, in our opinion, significantly strengthen the demand for and usage of physical metal. First, a new Shariah gold standard was approved in December 2016:

The AAOIFI [Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions], in collaboration with the World Gold Council (WGC) and Amanie Advisors, has approved what will become known as the Shariah Gold Standard. This is a set of guidelines that will expand the variety and use of gold-based products in Islamic Finance. (Jan Skoyles, Goldcore Research, 12/16)

We believe that this will lead to the creation of investment products such as gold ETFs for the Islamic world (25% of global population), a market that has not been penetrated. While estimates of the potential market size vary wildly, and this development is in its early days, it seems to us that it is a major positive for future physical gold consumption …

This is an excerpt and the full letter can be accessed at the Tocqueville website here

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

For your perusal, below are in order of downloads our most popular guides in 2016:

10 Important Points To Consider Before You Buy Gold

7 Real Risks To Your Gold Ownership

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns

Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold prices rise as Brexit worries stoke safe-haven demand (Reuters.com)

Gold Burnishes Haven Credentials Ahead of Brexit Speech, Trump (Bloomberg.com)

Trump helps gold scale highest levels since November (Reuters.com)

Brexit Plans Rattle Pound and Stocks as Gold Rises (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. stock futures fall as investors brace for earnings, Trump inauguration (MarketWatch.com)

What a Contrarian Investor Really Does – Stepek (MoneyWeek.com)

Pound falls over fears Britain will lose single market access (Telegraph.co.uk)

Gold Is Headed Above $6,000 (KingWorldNews.com)

Too Many Alligators to Drain the Swamp? (JaytaylorMedia.com)

Cash Ban Gives India Gold Lovers No Way to Buy Wedding Rings (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

17 Jan: USD 1,217.50, GBP 1,003.59 & EUR 1,141.65 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 1,202.75, GBP 997.56 & EUR 1,135.40 per ounce
13 Jan: USD 1,196.35, GBP 978.85 & EUR 1,123.25 per ounce
12 Jan: USD 1,206.65, GBP 984.39 & EUR 1,135.82 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 1,187.55, GBP 979.25 & EUR 1,128.41 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 1,183.20, GBP 974.60 & EUR 1,118.12 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 1,176.10, GBP 968.75 & EUR 1,118.59 per ounce
06 Jan: USD 1,178.00, GBP 951.35 & EUR 1,112.27 per ounce
05 Jan: USD 1,173.05, GBP 953.55 & EUR 1,116.16 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Jan: USD 17.00, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.87 per ounce
16 Jan: USD 16.82, GBP 13.94 & EUR 15.87 per ounce
13 Jan: USD 16.76, GBP 13.76 & EUR 15.74 per ounce
12 Jan: USD 16.91, GBP 13.77 & EUR 15.87 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 16.79, GBP 13.84 & EUR 15.96 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 16.66, GBP 13.73 & EUR 15.76 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 16.52, GBP 13.57 & EUR 15.69 per ounce
06 Jan: USD 16.45, GBP 13.30 & EUR 15.54 per ounce
05 Jan: USD 16.59, GBP 13.47 & EUR 15.80 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Physical Gold Will ‘Trump’ Paper Gold
– Gold Lower Before Trump Presidency – Strong Gains Akin To After Obama Inauguration
– Gold Rallies To $1,207 After Trump Press Conference Shambles
– Prince Owned Land and Gold Bars Worth $800,000
– Gold Price In GBP Up 4% On Brexit and UK Risks
– 2016 Past is 2017 Prologue
– Gold Gains In All Currencies In 2016 – 9% In USD, 13% In EUR and Surges 31.5% In GBP
– Trump’s Twitter “140 Characters” To Push Gold To $1,600/oz in 2017?
– 2017 – The Year of Banana Skin
– US: Five Must Gold See Charts – Gold Miners Are “Running Out” of Gold
– Royal Mint And CME Make A Mint On The Blockchain?
– China Gold and Precious Metals Summit 2016 – GoldCore Presentation
– Trumpenstein ! Who Created Him and Why?

www.GoldCore.com

via http://ift.tt/2iIF7Km GoldCore

• Theresa May pledges clean Brexit break (FT); May Pledges Vote on Brexit Taking U.K Out Of EU’s Single Market (BBG)
• Donald Trump Warns on House Republican Tax Plan (WSJ)
• Trump, Fed Headed for Clash Amid Dollar Surge, Economists Say (BBG)
• China’s Xi Warns Against Trade War in Defense of Globalization (BBG)
• Morgan Stanley Profit Rises on Surge in Bond-Trading Revenue (BBG)
• Germany says NATO concerned about Trump ‘obsolete’ remark (Reuters)
• Trump, Brexit uncertainty hit stocks and dollar, gold jumps (Reuters)
• BAT agrees takeover of Reynolds in $49.4bn deal (FT)
• Trump team defends health pick Tom Price over ethics charge (Reuters)
• Hyundai-Kia to Invest $3.1 Billion in U.S., Mull New Plant (BBG)
• Russia expects dialogue with Trump on nuclear weapons: Lavrov (Reuters)
• Top Trump trade adviser offshored thousands of jobs (Reuters)
• Be Skeptical of the Fed’s Rate Signals (BBG)
• Women’s apparel retailer Limited Stores files for bankruptcy (Reuters)
• Women’s apparel retailer Limited Stores files for bankruptcy (Reuters)
• China’s Oil Collapse Is Unintentionally Helping OPEC (BBG)
• Timeless Ritual to Meet Partisan Rancor at Trump’s Inauguration (BBG)
• In U.N. lawsuit, Ukraine demands Russia end support for separatists (Reuters)
• Samsung chief faces long day as South Korean court weighs arrest warrant (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– U.S. President-elect Donald Trump criticized a cornerstone of House Republicans’ corporate-tax plan, creating another point of contention between the incoming president and congressional allies. http://on.wsj.com/2jiRQSs

– Representative John Lewis, who drew Donald Trump’s ire after questioning the legitimacy of the election, didn’t mention the president-elect by name as he called on young people to stand up when they perceive injustices. http://on.wsj.com/2jiRwDf

– Prime Minister Theresa May is set to declare in a speech that Britain doesn’t want “partial membership” in the European Union “or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out.” http://on.wsj.com/2jiUZlp

– As Germany enters an unpredictable election year, anti-immigration politicians have hit out at Chancellor Angela Merkel, but she has stood firm in support of open borders and globalization. http://on.wsj.com/2jiV2h5

– Luxottica, maker of Ray-Ban, has agreed to a merger with French optical-lens maker Essilor, placing its Italian founder at the helm of a globe-spanning colossus with brands gracing European catwalks and California beaches. http://on.wsj.com/2jiSFLk

– Snapchat messaging app creators Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy are expected to retain more than 70 percent of voting power in the company. http://on.wsj.com/2jiInuD

– Rolls-Royce Holdings said it had settled a longstanding corruption probe with U.S., British and other authorities at a cost of more than $800 million. http://on.wsj.com/2jiVcoH

– Noble Energy will pay $2.7 billion to buy Clayton Williams Energy in a deal that will give it a combined 120,000 acres of oil-rich property in West Texas. http://on.wsj.com/2jiTFyO

– Although President-elect Donald Trump has called the alliance “obsolete”, nearly 300 U.S. Marines landed in Norway on Monday as part of an effort to bolster NATO defenses in the wake of Russia’s 2014 moves in Ukraine. http://on.wsj.com/2jiLItv

– Parliament’s ethics commissioner started a probe into whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated conflict-of-interest laws when he stayed at a private island in the Bahamas. http://on.wsj.com/2jiKz5g

 

FT

* Britain will not seek a Brexit deal that leaves it “half in, half out” of the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May will say on Tuesday in a speech setting out her 12 priorities for upcoming divorce talks with the bloc.

* Daily Mail and General Trust Plc have stepped back from talks to create a new joint advertising sales initiative known as “Project Juno,” which was launched in 2016.

* British engineering group Rolls-Royce Plc said on Monday that it had reached settlements with authorities in Britain, the United States and Brazil relating to bribery and corruption involving intermediaries, which would result in a series of payments totalling 671 million pounds ($809 million).

* The London Stock Exchange has fined UK-based brokerage firm Cornhill Capital for violation of its rules on London’s junior market, Aim.

* Britain’s Northern Ireland minister called an early election on Monday for March 2 following the collapse of the region’s power-sharing government that risks a lengthy period of political paralysis just as Britain prepares for talks to leave the EU.

 

NYT

– President-elect Donald Trump’s remarks in a string of discursive and sometimes contradictory interviews have escalated tensions with China while also infuriating allies and institutions critical to America’s traditional leadership of the West. http://nyti.ms/2jqMVlf

– Essilor of France said on Monday that it would merge with the Luxottica Group of Italy in a $49 billion deal that would create a giant in the eyewear industry. http://nyti.ms/2iwbmhq

– Seven days before his departure from the White House, President Obama sat down in the Oval Office and talked about the indispensable role that books have played during his presidency and throughout his life. http://nyti.ms/2jZyDsr

– The police in Turkey have arrested the man accused of carrying out a deadly attack on an Istanbul nightclub early on New Year’s Day, according to the semi-official Anadolu news agency as well as Turkish news reports. http://nyti.ms/2iBg3l2

– Prosecutors called for the arrest of the Samsung’s heir-apparent, Lee Jae-Yong. Prosecutors contend that Lee bribed President Park Geun-hye and one of her confidants in exchange for political favors. http://nyti.ms/2iGttQk

– With tensions escalating between President-elect Donald Trump and prominent black leaders, Trump met privately on Monday with the eldest son of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the holiday devoted to the civil rights hero. http://nyti.ms/2jE6fbW

– The FBI arrested the wife of the man who carried out a deadly terrorist attack in Orlando and charged her with obstructing the investigation of the mass shooting, law enforcement officials said. http://nyti.ms/2iwgYZ4

 

Canada

** Montreal’s transit authority is pulling new trains built by Bombardier Inc and Alstom SA out of service following an equipment problem over the weekend that forced the shutdown of a subway line for several hours. https://tgam.ca/2j3QQ42

** National Bank of Canada’s capital markets arm has hired veteran investment banker Dan Nowlan from rival CIBC World Markets to beef up its client coverage team. https://tgam.ca/2j3VP4N

** Money manager Sentry Investments Inc appointed Phil Yuzpe as its new chief executive, extending its string of senior leadership changes that date back 18 months. https://tgam.ca/2j424Fo

NATIONAL POST

** Adam Waterous, who is leaving his job as global head of investment banking at Scotiabank to start his own private equity company and bet on the next Alberta drilling boom, predicted a very busy year as “legacy” companies continue to restructure and cut costs. http://bit.ly/2j42HPB

** There will be lots at stake in a Calgary court room Wednesday when the various parties in the receivership of Twin Butte Energy gather to hear how the proceeds from a proposed sale of the company will be split up between creditors – if the deal is approved at all. http://bit.ly/2j3RnCL

** Urbanation Inc, which has been tracking the condo sector since 1981, said Monday in its year-end report that Toronto condo rental rates jumped 11.7 per cent in 2016 with the average rental rent in the fourth quarter reaching C$2.77 per square foot per month. http://bit.ly/2j3SToJ

 

Britain

The Times

Rolls-Royce pays 671 million stg to settle bribery claims

Four years of bribery and corruption investigations across five continents have ended with Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc making a 671 million pound ($807.62 million) out-of-court settlement with fraud-busters and international government agencies. The settlement, under which Rolls-Royce will pay the Serious Fraud Office just shy of 500 million pounds, is a record. http://bit.ly/2ivxI2D

The Guardian

Bank of England ‘keeping close eye on UK consumer spending’

The Bank of England is keeping a close watch on consumer spending amid signs households are dipping into their savings and amassing debts to keep spending in the face of rising inflation. Mark Carney, the Bank governor, said consumer spending had held up since last summer’s vote to leave the EU but he reiterated a warning that living costs were likely to rise on the back of a weak pound and squeeze households’ real incomes. http://bit.ly/2jRylzO

IMF upgrades UK forecast but notes Brexit terms are ‘unsettled’

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its forecasts for the UK economy this year after the latest signs that businesses and consumers have shrugged off the Brexit vote. Unveiling its new forecasts on the eve of a key speech by Theresa May on the Brexit process, the Washington-based fund also cut the outlook for 2018, reflecting widespread uncertainty over Britain’s future outside the EU. http://bit.ly/2jXn6d5

New BT service could end nuisance phone calls

Nuisance calls could largely be eradicated under a new BT service that allows phone users to block firms making the calls, which other telecom firms are expected to follow. Many smartphones already allow users to block numbers after receiving unwanted marketing calls. But the new BT call protect system allows users to block the companies themselves even when they change numbers. http://bit.ly/2ivFCJ8

The Telegraph

Angry Birds maker Rovio opens London gaming studio

The company behind the once-mighty smartphone game Angry Birds is opening its first UK office, tasked with spearheading the development of new multiplayer games. Headquartered in Finland, Rovio Entertainment <IPO-RVEY.N> will hire 20 people over the next two years to a studio in central London where they will design new games separate to the Angry Birds brand. http://bit.ly/2jhAQfw

New radar system for Royal Navy guarantees hundreds of British jobs

A contract to build the radar systems that monitor the skies, land and sea around the Navy’s new aircraft carriers will support more than 200 highly skilled engineering jobs in the UK. The Ministry of Defence has signed a 269 million pound deal to begin manufacturing the Crowsnest radar and surveillance system that protects the Queen Elizabeth-class ships currently under construction in Rosyth, Scotland. http://bit.ly/2jq3Cgk

Sky News

City financier seeks Tata Steel pensions role amid solvency row

A former pensions adviser to Boris Johnson is seeking to install himself as a trustee of Tata Steel Ltd’s vast British pension scheme amid doubts about the viability of a plan hatched by the company’s Indian parent. Edi Truell, a City financier who lodged a bid last year for Tata Steel’s UK operations, including the Port Talbot steelworks, has written to the trustees to outline a revamped offer aimed at rescuing the 15 billion pound scheme. Truell is floating a merger of Tata’s speciality steel unit and Sheffield Forgemasters. http://bit.ly/2jRrbLV

Tenpin owners look to strike with stock market return

The owners of one of Britain’s biggest tenpin bowling alley operators are plotting to score a strike by returning to the stock market less than two years after being taken private. Tenpin, formerly known as Essenden, has hired the investment bank Numis to bowl over investors with a stock market listing later this year. http://bit.ly/2iuGSfG

The Independent

British Airways says 99 percent of flights will operate during next cabin-crew walkout

British Airways says it will cancel only 24 flights during the second round of industrial action by some Heathrow-based cabin crew. Members of the Unite union working for BA’s Mixed Fleet operation are to strike from Thursday to Saturday, 19-21 January. The dispute is over what the union calls “poverty pay”. http://ind.pn/2jRk1ax

 

 

via http://ift.tt/2js4f9q Tyler Durden

As traders get to the their desks this morning after a 3-day weekend, only to find a market bombarded by a barrage of overnight news from around the globe even as Theresa May is currently delivering her Brexit speech, (so far the most impotant thing she has said is that both houses of parliament will vote on Brexit, leaving a door open that Brexit may not happen at all), here courtesy of JPM’s Adam Crisafulli is a recap of all the chaos that has taken place so far.

Market update – it was a very busy holiday weekend in the US w/a slew of Trump remarks (on foreign and domestic matters), Brexit worries, an update on Chinese growth, OPEC rhetoric, and more.

 

The net result of everything is generally weaker risk asset price action – Asia was weak Mon and mixed Tues while Europe is now tracking down >1% WTD. US futures are off ~12-13 points (about ~55bp).

 

Trump’s remarks on border taxes are the single most important/incremental piece of news from the perspective of US equities (given that tax reform has prob. been driving ~70% of the Trump/Ryan enthusiasm) – ostensibly the absence of border taxes is a “positive” but it also reflects 1) the relatively inchoate nature of the overall tax reform effort (which suggests progress may not come for several months at least) and 2) it suggests the headline corporate rate may not move as low as Ryan (20%) or Trump (15%) want as the border adjustment revenue was a necessary offset.

 

Trump’s tone on foreign policy matters (he expressed indifference towards the EU, calling it a vehicle for German interests, and labeled NATO “obsolete”) set off alarm bells throughout Europe (and among participants at Davos); while markets are focused (somewhat myopically) on the financial/economic implications of Trump, the geopolitical risks associated w/not only the President Elect but also various global shifts now underway remain very underappreciated.

via http://ift.tt/2jFrJFo Tyler Durden