079: How we could see Facebook, Apple and Amazon fall 20% in a single day

In today’s podcast, Sovereign Man’s Chief Investment Strategist Tim Staermose joins me to talk about the risks in today’s market…

We cover the rise of passive investing, and why we think it could cause chaos when the market turns – with some of the biggest and most popular stocks (like Apple and Amazon) falling 10% or 20% in a day.

We also discuss the massive amount of debt in the system today and how capitalism has turned upside down.

Tim also explains his value-investing strategy that has led to a 97% success rate in his advisory service, The 4th Pillar… And he shares a couple of his favorite opportunities today.

You can listen to the full discussion here.

Source

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Students Crashed College Republicans’ Meeting at UC-Santa Cruz, Demanded Shutdown

UCSCActivist students at the University of California at Santa Cruz reject the “right of assembly” and “right of free speech” when it comes to white supremacists and fascists. In their view, this includes the College Republicans.

And so, the students crashed a CR meeting in the basement of a campus library earlier this week. The CRs attempted to have a dialogue with the protesters, but the protesters maintained that “dialogue is violence” and that the CRs’ mere presence in the library was an explicit threat against marginalized students and act of violence. The protesters even asked library staff to evict the CRs from the building, according to Campus Reform.

After two hours, the police involved themselves, and three of the protesters were arrested. The CRs have also asked UC-Santa Cruz’s student government to sanction the protesters, since two of them were in fact members of the student government.

Campus Reform obtained some video footage of the incident. In the clip below, CRs and protesters are heatedly arguing with one another. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course—they appear to be having the exact kind of dialogue the CRs claimed they wanted and the protesters claimed was violence. But my favorite part of the exchange happens toward the end, when one of the students—presumably a CR—accuses the protesters of selection bias.

“If this was any other group, if it was a communist group, or socialist group, if it was a Democratic group, if it was a centrist group, nobody would be here saying anything,” said the student. “But because the title says Republicans, and because that’s connected to Trump…”

“Because communists aren’t fucking racists,” a protester interjected.

Communism has killed and impoverished millions, but it’s arguably true that communists committed these murders irrespective of the race or ethnic origins of their victims. That’s what really matters, it seems.

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Journalism Intern Needed This Spring in Our D.C. Office

Reason is taking applicants for its Burton C. Gray Memorial Internship program. Interns work 12 weeks in our D.C. office with a $5,000 stipend.

Interns have the opportunity to report and write for Reason and reason.com, as well as helping with research, proofreading, and other tasks. Previous interns have gone on to work at the The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, ABC News, and Reason itself.

Send your résumé, as many as five writing samples (preferably published clips), and a cover letter by the deadline below to intern@reason.com. Please include “Gray Internship Application” and the season for which you are applying in the subject line.

Paper applications can be sent to:

Gray Internship
Reason
1747 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20009

Spring internships begin Jan. 15. The application deadline is Nov. 1.

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Zimbabwe Panic Sends Bitcoin Soaring Over $6000 – Now Bigger Than Goldman Sachs

Cryptocurrencies are broadly higher this morning with Bitcoin leading the way to new record highs at $6000 – nearing $100 Billion market cap, bigger than Goldman Sachs – as demand from Zimbabwe soars (and Spanish concerns see activity rise).

Most of the biggest cryptos are higher…

 

But Bitcoin is leading – now above $6000 for the first time ever…

 

And is now 'bigger' than Goldman Sachs…

As CryptoCoinsNews reports, Zimbabweans are attempt to escape yet another currency debacle…

According to TheNational.ae, bitcoin adoption in Zimbabwe is seemingly skyrocketing as the country’s economic situation looks bleak. So much so, that one bitcoin is trading at nearly $10,000 on the Golix.io exchange, while the global average is, at press time, of $5,642.00.

 

According to a local trader, bitcoin isn’t just being bought by individuals, but by businesses with bills to pay. The country adopted the U.S. dollar back in 2009 as its fiat currency, as the Zimbabwean dollar had lost nearly all its value.

 

At press time, LocalBitcoins Zimbabwe has people buying bitcoin at the global average, and some buying the cryptocurrency for cash for well over $10,000 in the country’s capital. Bitcoin, as every bitcoiner would expect, is helping people in the country survive times of economic uncertainty, as Zimbabwe has been embroiled in a crisis for years.

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Gold Star Widow Releases Trump’s Call: “Tell Your Children I Said Their Father Was A Great Hero”

As the imbrogilio over President Trump's private call to the widow of Sgt. David Johnson killed in action in Niger continues to torment, The Daily Caller's Henry Rodgers reports Gold Star widow Natasha De Alencar released the audio of a phone conversation she had with President Donald Trump in April about the death of her husband who was killed in Afghanistan.

“I am so sorry to hear about the whole situation. What a horrible thing, except that he’s an unbelievable hero,” Trump told her in the call about her husband Army Staff Sgt. Mark R. De Alencar, which The Washington Post released.

 

“Thank you. I really, really appreciated it,” she said. “I really do, sir.”

Trump also told the widow if she is ever in Washington D.C. that she is welcome in the Oval Office.

“If you’re around Washington, you come over and see me in the Oval Office,” he said.

 

“You just come over and see me because you are just the kind of family … this is what we want.”

 

“Say hello to your children, and tell them your father he was a great hero that I respected,” Trump said.

 

“Just tell them I said your father was a great hero.”

The phone call was released after White House chief of staff Gen. John Kelly pushed back against Florida Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson’s criticism that Trump told Sgt. Johnson’s widow “he knew what he signed up for,” during Thursday’s White House press briefing.

And finally, the story has now morphed to being about General Kelly and not what President Trump may or may not have said to Sgt. Johnson's widow – it appears MSNBC has decided that Kelly's emotional comments…

Were driven by his racism…

MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell said he was “stunned” by White House chief of staff John Kelly’s remarks about Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson of Florida, suggesting that the former general was a product of a racist upbringing.

 

“John Kelly never sat next to Frederica Wilson in his elementary school,” he added.

 

Joy-Ann Reid lauded fellow MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell’s Thursday night segment in which he characterized White House Chief of Staff Gen. John Kelly’s attack on Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson as the product of his “segregated” Irish Catholic upbringing.

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Foxconn Begins Shipping iPhone X But First Batches “Are Smaller Than Expected”: DigiTimes

While Apple’s troubles with the iPhone 8 (which is being outsold by the iPhone 7) have been duly discussed in recent days and largely ignored by Wall Street, whose hopes remain pinned on the iPhone X, the latest update from DigiTimes is even more concering, as it suggests that general demand for the entire Apple product suite may be lower than expected. According to Digitimes, iPhone assembler Foxconn has reportedly started shipping iPhone X units, however the first batches smaller than expected. Foxconn has shipped off the first batch of 46,500 units from Zhengzhou and Shanghai, heading for the Netherlands and United Arab Emirates respectively, DigiTimes cited Xinhuanet.

Apple will start to take pre-sales order on the iPhone X on October 27 and has said it would start delivering the devices on November 3. However, the low number of the first batch would suggest that the new X-mobel might be one of the more “hard-to-get” smartphones on the market these days.

Foxconn has now ramped up its output of the new iPhone flagship from 100’000 units on a weekly basis to 400’000, the report continues, although it is unclear if this increase will be enough to meet market demand.

Separately, TechCrunch confirms that for whatever reason Apple is not producing enough iPhone X units for first weekend sales, citing a new report from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, according to which “Apple is still facing supply chain constraints for the upcoming iPhone X. The company will have around 2 to 3 million units before the launch on November 3rd, which shouldn’t be enough to meet demand.”

While Apple didn’t disclose exact numbers for first weekend sales last year, the company sold 13 million iPhone 6s units during the first weekend, 10 million iPhone 6 units and 9 million iPhone 5s/5c units. The iPhone 8 is already available, which could mitigate demand for the iPhone X, but it sounds like many buyers will be disappointed by Apple’s initial stock.

The suggested reason is that Apple’s supplier-chain is simply unable to keep up:

According to KGI Securities, Apple now uses a flexible printed circuit board for the antenna. This is not your average circuit board, so Apple has had issues finding suppliers that can produce those components at scale. Murata was supposed to be the main supplier for this part, but it sounds like the company can’t meet Apple’s strong requirements. Since then, Apple has found a new supplier, which created some delays.

 

On the camera front, Apple is using a different circuit board for each sensor. Other phone makers only use one circuit board. This custom design has also been a challenge.

iPhone X pre-orders start on Friday, October 27th at midnight Pacific time, and while production should ramp up in the coming weeks, TechCrunch notes that “it sounds like it could take months before you can just walk in an Apple store and buy a new iPhone X.” It concludes that “It’s going to be interesting to hear Tim Cook’s comments on those supply chain issues when Apple announces its quarterly earnings in a couple of weeks.”

The questions Cook will face are three: i) why did Apple ignore the problems in its supply chain until it was so late, ii) what will the delayed deliveries mean for Apple’s Q4 and subsequent bottom line, and iii) a question we doubt will be asked but everyone will be thinking, is whether these supply bottlenecks were on purpose, designed to create an artificial product shortage while boosting the latest phone’s “hype and coolness” factor.

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You Think You’re Free, Catalonia? Think Again, Spain Says

You Think You’re Free? Think Again, Spain Says, Begins Preparations to Crack Down on Catalan

Written by Nathan McDonald, Sprott Money News

 

You Think You're Free? Think Again, Spain Says, Begins Preparations to Crack Down on Catalan - Nathan McDonald

 

Governments all over the world need control: they need control over “their” people, they need control over “their” money supply, and through this control they can grow their power and ability to dictate our everyday lives.

 

 

Everyone is born under a system of control in today’s modern world. Arguably, for most of history, it has been this way. Sure, we are given freedoms as long as we play within our specifically defined set of rules, but just try to break these rules and watch how quickly the hammer comes down on top of your head.

 

 

This is exactly what we have witnessed on October 1st, within the Catalan region of Spain, who voted OVERWHELMINGLY, 92.1% in fact, to exit Spain and become independent. This was a nonviolent, democratic process, by a set of people of a specific region, yet they have learned the hard way that their destiny is far from their own.

 

 

The government of Spain looks at this prosperous region as theirs and the people that make up this area are their cash cows – cash cows that are attempting to hop the fence and drift off the farm. This cannot and will not be allowed.

 

 

The violent crackdown that we witnessed on October 1st showed the government of Spain’s hand, but they are far from the only government that would act in this way. The global elites of both the West and the East all would act in a similar manner.

 

 

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is now taking additional steps, invoking Article 155 of their Constitution, which gives them the right to “restore the legality” of the semi-autonomous region. Which I’m sure as you can guess, means forcefully removing the “renegade” government of Catalonia by any means necessary.

 

Still, Catalonia’s President Carles Puigdemont is not backing down in the face of these threats and hopes that the region can separate peacefully – a truly hopeful wish in my opinion.

 

 

This has led to civil society organizations within Catalonia to call for retaliation against the government of Spain, requesting that all citizens within the region initiate a bank run by withdrawing their funds all at once, together.

 

 

If you think this call to action is to be taken lightly, then you are forgetting one of the key elements that give the ruling class their power: their control over the fiat money supply and the banking system that keeps it going.

 

 

 

The citizens of Catalonia are going to learn the hard way just how little money the modern day banking system keeps in physical reserve. Quickly the vaults and ATMs will run dry – and then what?

 

 

I for one am hopeful that this situation will resolve itself peacefully and the people of Catalonia will be set free, as they have democratically requested, and that this will be a bright shining example of liberty and free will in a modern time. Sadly, I highly doubt that is what is going to occur.

 

 

Unless the government of Catalonia steps down on their own accord, then you can expect to see violence and blood in the streets. This action cannot and will not be tolerated by the elites of the world, lest the rest of us peasants get any silly ideas in our heads.

 

 

Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

 

 

 

 

You Think You’re Free? Think Again, Spain Says, Begins Preparations to Crack Down on Catalan

Written by Nathan McDonald, Sprott Money News

 

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Paul Ryan Pans Schumer, Pokes Clinton, Picks On Trump At Al Smith Dinner Roast

As opposed to the awkward cat calls and snide looks of last year's Al Smith Memorial dinner (roast) – just days before the election, Speaker Paul Ryan's comments last night had a little for everyone… and no one booed!

He began with some jabs at President Trump to soften the audience up…

"Enough with the applause… You sound like the Cabinet when Donald Trump walks into the room."

 

"I don't think I've seen this many New York liberals, this many Wall Street CEOs in one room since my last visit to the White House."

And then it was game on as the Speaker took shots at Schumer, Clinton, and Trump's tweets…

The speaker said that he has indeed dealt many times with an "abrasive New Yorker with a loud mouth… But, once you get to know him, Chuck Schumer's not all that bad," he said.

 

"I know why Chuck [Schumer] has been so hard on President Trump. It's not ideological; Chuck is just mad he lost his top donor."

 

"Wisconsin is a fantastic place to visit in the fall," he said of his home state. "Looking back, someone should've told Hillary Clinton that fact."

 

"The truth is, the press absolutely misunderstands and never records the big accomplishments of the White House … Look at all the new jobs the president has created — just among the White House staff."

 

"Stephen Bannon said I was born in a Petri dish at the Heritage Foundation," he recalled, adding jokingly. "No one knew Steve believed in science."

 

"Every morning I wake up in my office and I scroll through Twitter to see which tweets I will have to pretend I didn't see later on."

 

"Every afternoon former Speaker John Boehner calls me up, not to give advice, just to laugh."

And finally, on Trump's remarks to the dinner last year:

"Some said it was unbecoming of a public figure and they said that his comments were offensive. Well, thank God he's learned his lesson."

Highlights below…

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Blood In The Streets? Storm-Savaged September Sees Home Sales Surge

Tumbling starts and permits data, and dismal new, pending, and existing home sales in August urged a rebound in September and existing home sales (amid massive storms) somehow managed to surge 0.7% MoM (smashing expectations of a 0.9% tumble).

  • Sales in the South remain low, likely due to effects of Hurricane Harvey and Irma.
  • Inventories continue to constrain the pace of existing home sales.
  • The supply of homes for sale rose 0.7% MOM but were down 1.7% YOY.

Trend reversal?

The 0.7% rise in September was driven by single-family homes rising 1.1% as rental unit sales dropped 1.6%.

Median sales price increased 4.2% YoY to $245,100.

However, it's not all shits ands giggles… Exisitng home sales dropped 1.5% YoY – the first decline since July 2016…

 

The South did see a 0.9% MoM decline in sales after a 5.7% plunge in August (as The West surged 3.3%)

September existing-home sales in the Northeast were at an annual rate of 720,000 (unchanged from August), and are now 1.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $274,100, which is 4.8 percent above September 2016.

 

In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September, but are 1.5 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $195,800, up 5.4 percent from a year ago.

 

Existing-home sales in the South slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 2.13 million in September, and are now 2.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the South was $215,100, up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

 

Existing-home sales in the West increased 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.24 million in September (unchanged from a year ago). The median price in the West was $362,700, up 5.0 percent from September 2016.

However, Houston home sales jumped 4%, as we assume speculative buyers swooped on the 'blood in the streets'!

“Home sales appear to be holding steady,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. “The hurricane impact appears to be short-lived.”

“First-time buyers stepped back a bit,” he said, showing pricing increases that are outpacing income gains remain a constraint.

And then NAR takes a swing at Trump's Tax Plan..

“There's no way around the fact that any proposal that marginalizes the mortgage interest deduction and eliminates state and local tax deductions essentially disincentives homeownership and is a potential tax hike on millions of middle-class homeowners,” said Brown.

 

“Reforming the tax code is a worthy goal, but it should not lead to the middle class, who primarily build wealth through owning a home, footing the bill. Instead, Congress should be looking at ways to ensure more creditworthy prospective buyers are able to achieve homeownership and enjoy its personal and wealth-building benefits.”

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Deadly California Wildfires Spark Debate About Government Spending: New at Reason

The debate over spending in the wake of the California wildfires is already contentious.

Steven Greenhut writes:

In the days before Facebook and other social media, it was a matter of course to wait a few days after tragedies strike before making political and policy points about the latest event. We always need to show compassion for the suffering—and wait until more of the facts roll in before getting up on that soapbox.

At the OC Register, we used to refer to the late editorial writer Alan Bock as “Reverend Bock” because he was so good at offering condolences rather than lectures. But, ultimately, it’s the role of opinion writers to provide constructive policy advice after destructive events. We see this following the Las Vegas massacre this month, where gun availability became an understandable topic, and after recent hurricanes, where relief efforts received scrutiny.

Now, it’s time to think about wildfires. It’s hard not to think about them in northern and Southern California. My house is 80 miles from Napa Valley, yet the air is thick with smoke. Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes. At least 41 people have died and hundreds are missing as 16 fires engulf more than 160,000 acres in a heavily urbanized area. More than 3,500 homes and businesses have been destroyed, including wineries.

This is terribly sad. Anything one says about other people’s misery comes across as inadequate or trite, but we should have heavy hearts for what our fellow Californians are going through. Wildfires are, of course, a regular occurrence. The fields and woods typically are dry this time of year. It gets windy. Power lines fall. Wildfires spread like, well, wildfire.

What should we learn for next time?

View this article.

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