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The German government is warning its people to ‘stockpile’ food, water and cash in case of ‘war’.

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the German government is set to tell citizens to stockpile food, water, medicine, fuel and cash in case of war, an attack, catastrophe or “national emergency”, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper reported on Sunday.

Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Matteo Renzi on Aircraft Carrier Garibaldi yesterday. Photo: Guido Bergmann / DPA

Angela Merkel’s government is to “encourage the population” to have their own “personal supplies” including having some reserves of cash in their homes. People will also be urged to keep supplies of medicines, warm blankets, coal, wood, candles, torches, batteries and matches.

Regarding the advice to own cash outside the banking system, Deutsche Welle pointed out that:

“A wad of cash is another important part of any household’s emergency supplies. There may not be time to rush to a bank, and ATMs won’t work if the power is out.”

This is one of the primary reasons that one should own physical gold coins and bars outside the banking, financial and indeed the “technological system” and its dependence on electrical grids and supplies. Many of these systems are antiquated and vulnerable to attack such as from electromagnetic pulse (EMP) warfare that could quickly take out a large city or indeed a nation’s electricity infrastructure and supplies.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung  reported that the

“Population should be able to protect themselves before government measures start to ensure an adequate supply of food, water, energy and cash.”

“The population will be obliged to hold an individual supply of food for ten days,” the newspaper quoted the government’s “Concept for Civil Defence” – which has been prepared by the Interior Ministry – as saying. According to information leaked to Frankfurter Allgemeine Sontagszeitung they include advice to citizens to stockpile enough food for ten days and clean drinking water for five days.

“The population should be urged by appropriate means to keep two litres of drinking water per person per day,” the newspaper quoted a government paper as saying.

The 69-page report does not see an attack on Germany’s territory, which would require a conventional style of national defense, as likely. However, the precautionary measures demand that people “prepare appropriately for a development that could threaten our existence and cannot be categorically ruled out in the future,” the paper cited the report as saying.

The government is to increase stocks of smallpox vaccine and antibiotics in case of biological attack, and set up reserves of petrol and oil at 140 locations around Germany to ensure a supply for 90 days. Other provisions include setting up decontamination sites outside hospitals in case of nuclear, biological or chemical attack.

German newspapers like Deutsche Welle have complied handy checklists such as What emergency supplies do you need?

It is important to note that another global financial crisis and collapse of the global banking and financial system would also necessitate citizens being prepared. Deutsche Bank’s share price has all the hallmarks of that of Lehman Brothers prior to Lehman’s collapse.

Political and financial complacency reigns today as it tends to do regarding geopolitical risk. The complacency of the world between 1900 and 1914 is the best example of this. There is little analysis of the potential impact of terrorism and war on the lives of citizens or indeed on their personal finances.

Owning some gold coins and bars outside the banking and financial system will protect from these scenarios. As ever, it is prudent to hope for the best but be prepared for less benign scenarios.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Silver tumbles to 7-wk low, but outlook remains supportive (Bulliondesk)

Gold steady as markets await U.S. rate hike clues (Reuters)

CME Group suspends gold, natural gas trader for spoofing (Reuters)

Dollar Advances as Fischer Tips Fed Balance Toward Tightening (Bloomberg)

Mint selling more American Eagle gold bullion coins (CoinWorld)

Pomboy: Grim Outlook for Economy, Stocks; Positive On Gold (Barrons)

Fed comments push gold lower but outlook “remains solid” (CNBC)

The US National Debt: Facing a debt crisis  (MoneyInsights)

Bubbles In Bond Land——A Central Bank Made Mania (DSCC)

Bank Of Ireland And RBS To Charge Negative Interest Rates To Depositors – Remember MF Global? (Forbes)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

23Aug: USD 1,338.50, GBP 1,015.25 & EUR 1,181.09 per ounce
22Aug: USD 1,334.30, GBP 1,018.20 & EUR 1,181.26 per ounce
19Aug: USD 1,346.85, GBP 1,026.30 & EUR 1,189.67 per ounce
18Aug: USD 1,347.10, GBP 1,023.93 & EUR 1,190.84 per ounce
17Aug: USD 1,342.75, GBP 1,031.23 & EUR 1,191.96 per ounce
16Aug: USD 1,349.10, GBP 1,039.89 & EUR 1,197.33 per ounce
15Aug: USD 1,339.20, GBP 1,037.21 & EUR 1,198.85 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

23Aug: USD 18.98, GBP 14.40 & EUR 16.75 per ounce
22Aug: USD 18.91, GBP 14.45 & EUR 16.74 per ounce
19Aug: USD 19.42, GBP 14.80 & EUR 17.14 per ounce
18Aug: USD 19.78, GBP 15.04 & EUR 17.47 per ounce
17Aug: USD 19.57, GBP 15.04 & EUR 17.37 per ounce
16Aug: USD 20.04, GBP 15.43 & EUR 17.77 per ounce
15Aug: USD 19.90, GBP 15.40 & EUR 17.81 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Ireland’s Biggest Bank Charging Depositors – Negative Interest Rate Madness
– Rothchilds Buying Gold On “Greatest Experiment” With Money In “History of the World”
– Gold – “Mother of All Bull Markets Has Only Just Begun” – Grandich
– 45th Anniversary Of Nixon Ending The Gold Standard
– Gold In UK Pounds Collapses 38% Versus Gold and 56% Versus Silver Year To Date
– Will Ireland Be First Country In World To See Bail-in Regime?
– Money “Madness” Negative Interest Rates Sees Gold Buying Surge
– Gold Investment Demand Reaches Record In First Half 2016 On “Perfect Storm”
– Peak Gold – Did Gold Production Peak in 2015?
– Financial Times: “Victory For Gold Bulls Is Only Just Beginning”
– Irish Banks Most Vulnerable In Stress Tests – Banking Contagion In EU Cometh
– Gold In Sterling 2.2% Higher After Bank Of England Cuts To 0.25% and Expands QE
– Silver Kangaroo Coins – Sales Surge To Over 10 Million

via http://ift.tt/2bLWJAE GoldCore

• Dollar Drops on Rate Outlook as European Stocks Rise, Oil Falls (BBG)
• Bank of Japan’s rush into stocks raises fears of market distortions (Reuters)
• With Moderate Drinking Under Fire, Alcohol Companies Go on Offensive (WSJ)
• Merkel Says Brexit Is U.K.’s Loss While Pledging EU Results (BBG)
• Turkey cuts rates for sixth straight month amid ratings worries (Reuters)
• Euro-Area Economy Shrugs Off Brexit as Key Index Edges Up (BBG)
• Donald Trump Courts Black Vote While Avoiding African-American Communities (WSJ)
• Everyone Wants Emerging-Market Bonds, But There Aren’t Enough to Go Around (WSJ)
• Appeals arguments begin on Kansas law requiring voters to prove citizenship (Reuters)
• Delphi, Mobileye Join Forces to Develop Self-Drive System (WSJ)
• What Detroit Needs Now: More Squatters (Bloomberg)
• Anbang Group plans Hong Kong IPO of life insurance unit (Reuters)
• Devolved government sees 2 billion to 11 billion stg Brexit hit to Scottish economy (Reuters)
• VW, suppliers settle dispute after marathon talks (Reuters)
• The Pentagon Takes Aim at Bomb-Carrying Consumer Drones (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– A federal judge prodded the U.S. State Department to quickly review a batch of 14,900 recently discovered emails as the controversy over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s correspondence while she served as America’s top diplomat continued to simmer. http://on.wsj.com/2bPHYig

– Despite signs that Donald Trump may be softening his rhetoric on the issue that catapulted him to political prominence, cracking down on illegal immigrants, the Republican presidential nominee said Monday that he wasn’t waffling and reiterated his commitment to strict anti-immigration measures. http://on.wsj.com/2bQBNdI

– A U.S. national security panel cleared China National Chemical Corp’s $43 billion planned takeover of seed giant Syngenta AG, months after shooting down much smaller Chinese deals for electronics and lightbulb manufacturers. http://on.wsj.com/2bcD90W

– Ryan Lochte has lost all of his major endorsement deals as swimwear company Speedo USA, clothing line Ralph Lauren Corp , a mattress maker and a hair-removal brand have dropped their sponsorship of the Olympic swimmer in the wake of the Rio de Janeiro scandal. http://on.wsj.com/2bHf00G

– Pfizer Inc said that it had agreed to buy biotech Medivation Inc for about $14 billion, in a move that adds one of the crown jewels of the multibillion-dollar market for cancer drugs to Pfizer’s portfolio. http://on.wsj.com/2bwpaW4

– New York’s environmental regulator has notified federal officials that General Electric Co’s seven-year, $1.6 billion dredging campaign to remove industrial pollutants from the Hudson River has been inadequate. http://on.wsj.com/2bBQ25H

– Sharp Corp will implement a large-scale corporate restructuring to achieve profitability, with the hope of restoring the brand’s image as a global provider of innovative consumer electronics, the company’s new chief executive said Monday. http://on.wsj.com/2b8KP7w

 

FT

Crucial details were excluded from a French government report about how Renault SA’s diesel cars were able to emit fewer deadly gases when subject to official emissions testing, members of the state inquiry told the Financial Times.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) said it has cut fees in half for open outcry trades during August as a goodwill gesture after it had to vacate its premises because of structural problems.

More than one million low-income households in Britain are left struggling with debt problems as a result of years of stagnant wage growth, according to a report from the Trades Union Congress.

The leaders of the euro zone’s biggest economies declared they would not allow Britain’s shock decision to leave the European Union to propel the bloc into reverse, as they discussed plans to deepen intelligence co-operation and bolster a pan-European investment plan.

 

NYT

– Pfizer Inc said it would buy U.S. cancer drug company Medivation Inc in a deal valued at about $14 billion. http://nyti.ms/2bK5xWO

– The fallout from Ryan Lochte’s story about being robbed at gunpoint in Rio continued Monday when four companies said they would end business partnerships with Lochte, an American swimmer and 12-time Olympic medalist. http://nyti.ms/2bK5r1y

– A lawyer for Melania Trump said Monday that he had informed several news organizations, including The Daily Mail, that they could face legal action for publishing articles that she contended were defamatory. http://nyti.ms/2bK5nPe

– Andrea Tantaros, a former Fox News host, charged in a lawsuit filed Monday that top executives at the network, including the man who replaced Roger Ailes, punished her for complaining about sexual harassment by Ailes. http://nyti.ms/2bK5LgG

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Ontario’s Liberal government has bowed to public and opposition pressure in order to tighten caps further on political donations, but is still allowing cash-for-access fundraising. (http://bit.ly/2bdOmLS)

** Climate change is the “greatest global health threat of the 21st century,” so it is incumbent that physicians take a stand to protect their patients, one of the world’s leading human-rights advocates, James Orbinski, told the Canadian Medical Association. (http://bit.ly/2bbv1Rr)

** New data shows that about one-third of Toronto’s public schools require critical repairs as Canada’s largest school board, Toronto District School Board, faces a $3.4-billion maintenance backlog. (http://bit.ly/2bbvQth)

NATIONAL POST

** Twitter Canada has a head of News and Government again, an important position to the company as it tries to get more media and political influencers to incorporate its products into their daily workflow. The position was previously held by Steve Ladurantaye. (http://bit.ly/2bbsSoI)

** Mogo Financial Technology Inc unveiled a mobile application on Monday, hoping to attract clients with an app that gives them access to a suite of credit and loan products and services in under three minutes. (http://bit.ly/2bbsQx0)

 

Britain

The Times

** Senior Conservatives reacted with anger last night after a European leader warned Theresa May that handing a tax cut to businesses would make Brexit negotiations “more difficult”. (http://bit.ly/2bvzFoc)

** The chairman of the parliamentary committee investigating Philip Green’s handling of the BHS pension deficit is seeking talks with an American investor who owns a minority stake in the entrepreneur’s Topshop chain. (http://bit.ly/2bxK2MA)

The Guardian

** Sports Direct has been heavily criticised by its own shareholders and corporate governance experts after it emerged that the sportswear retailer pays an obscure company owned by Mike Ashley’s brother to deliver online orders outside the UK. (http://bit.ly/2bxKmeq)

** Volkswagen has been thrown into another crisis after a dispute with a supplier forced it to halt production at six plants and cut the hours of nearly 28,000 workers. (http://bit.ly/2bvu3dv)

The Telegraph

** Theresa May and Chancellor Philip Hammond have both scrapped George Osborne’s plan to abolish the budget deficit by 2020, giving them room to hike borrowing – potentially by as much as 50 billion pounds in the next financial year. (http://bit.ly/2bvuyEB)

** Dubai-based property developer Damac has signed a 200 million pounds deal with Lendlease to build its new tower in London, signalling a vote of confidence in the post-Brexit newbuild market. (http://bit.ly/2bvvJUd)

Sky News

** The overhaul of senior management at Britain’s most prominent payday lender, Wonga, will continue this week when a former Travelex executive is appointed to run its British operations. (http://bit.ly/2bvv9pH)

** The former Argos and Homebase boss Terry Duddy has been approached about taking over the chairmanship of Findel Plc , the mail order retailer, as it seeks to resolve a row over the influence of Mike Ashley, the tycoon whose sports goods chain is its biggest shareholder. (http://bit.ly/2bvAops)

The Independent

** A “collapse” in the value of pay, alongside soaring unsecured debt means 1.6 million families are now living in extreme debt in the UK, according to a new report. (http://ind.pn/2bvzWHs)

 

via http://ift.tt/2bbKpgn Tyler Durden

The purpose of today’s very brief article is just to reassure everyone that this current pullback in gold and silver prices is not anything to worry about, but will just provide another opportunity to buy some of your favorite gold and silver stocks that perhaps you do not yet own. 

 

On 14 July 2016, after we purchased many gold and silver stocks in early June to add to very solid positions in physical PMs we’ve established since 2007, I sent this bulletin to our Platinum Members: “We may receive some weakness in the share prices of many of the stocks we hold now as they have increased quite strongly in a fairly short period of time, but we will continue to hold them unless stronger evidence arises in the immediate future that the support levels above for gold and silver prices may not hold.” Indeed from 15 July to 26 July, many gold and silver stocks pulled back in price to a fair degree.

 

On 26 July 2016, after the HUI Gold Bugs Index had pulled back by 9.4%, silver had pulled back 8.8%, and gold had pulled back 4.7% in a month’s time, there was chatter in the mainstream media, as always, of a much greater possible fall in gold and silver prices. In response, I wrote Part 1 of this article to dispel that notion, in which I stated my belief that the pullback we were experiencing at the time was only a temporary lull in a continuing uptrend in gold and silver prices that started at the end of last year.

 

Indeed, gold and silver prices started rising again the very day I published that article, until the beginning of August.

 

On 9 August 2016, I sent a bulletin to my Platinum Members, once again warning of another temporary decline in gold and silver prices, and I provided specific price levels at which I believed gold and silver would rebound and rise again.

 

However, just as I stated back on 26 July 2016, when this current downtrend in gold and silver prices ends in due time, as we are not going to see the $150 to $200 drops in gold prices of past years, this ongoing gold and silver bull is going to resume strongly higher again. Again, much is being made about the upcoming Janet Yellen speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, but personally, I could care less if she expresses a hint of “hawkishness”, for the reasons I provided here. Despite whatever mind-bending picture of “reality” Yellen attempts to present on Friday that causes whatever immediate knee-jerk price reactions in markets that her words always create, the one constant is that no hare-brained Central Banker speech is going to derail my long-term strategy and commitment to gold and silver assets as the way out of this Central Banker-created currency war of fiat currency devaluation to the bottom.

 

In addition, the one prediction in which I have confidence as well, is that when this Central Banker, artificially price-distorted creature they call the US stock market finally rolls over and implodes in one glorious disaster, whether this event happens before or after the US elections, the descent is going to be very disorderly and on a grander scale than the crash of 2008. If you would like to read a much longer article about the topic presented today, please follow the link to Part 1 provided above.

 

About the author: JS Kim is the Founder and Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU. Subscribe to our RSS feed here as we often release articles a few days before posting here. Come by our website to receive sample issues of our gold and silver focused newsletter or to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter.

via http://ift.tt/2bdSGuw smartknowledgeu

The purpose of today’s very brief article is just to reassure everyone that this current pullback in gold and silver prices is not anything to worry about, but will just provide another opportunity to buy some of your favorite gold and silver stocks that perhaps you do not yet own. 

 

On 14 July 2016, after we purchased many gold and silver stocks in early June to add to very solid positions in physical PMs we’ve established since 2007, I sent this bulletin to our Platinum Members: “We may receive some weakness in the share prices of many of the stocks we hold now as they have increased quite strongly in a fairly short period of time, but we will continue to hold them unless stronger evidence arises in the immediate future that the support levels above for gold and silver prices may not hold.” Indeed from 15 July to 26 July, many gold and silver stocks pulled back in price to a fair degree.

 

On 26 July 2016, after the HUI Gold Bugs Index had pulled back by 9.4%, silver had pulled back 8.8%, and gold had pulled back 4.7% in a month’s time, there was chatter in the mainstream media, as always, of a much greater possible fall in gold and silver prices. In response, I wrote Part 1 of this article to dispel that notion, in which I stated my belief that the pullback we were experiencing at the time was only a temporary lull in a continuing uptrend in gold and silver prices that started at the end of last year.

 

Indeed, gold and silver prices started rising again the very day I published that article, until the beginning of August.

 

On 9 August 2016, I sent a bulletin to my Platinum Members, once again warning of another temporary decline in gold and silver prices, and I provided specific price levels at which I believed gold and silver would rebound and rise again.

 

However, just as I stated back on 26 July 2016, when this current downtrend in gold and silver prices ends in due time, as we are not going to see the $150 to $200 drops in gold prices of past years, this ongoing gold and silver bull is going to resume strongly higher again. Again, much is being made about the upcoming Janet Yellen speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, but personally, I could care less if she expresses a hint of “hawkishness”, for the reasons I provided here. Despite whatever mind-bending picture of “reality” Yellen attempts to present on Friday that causes whatever immediate knee-jerk price reactions in markets that her words always create, the one constant is that no hare-brained Central Banker speech is going to derail my long-term strategy and commitment to gold and silver assets as the way out of this Central Banker-created currency war of fiat currency devaluation to the bottom.

 

In addition, the one prediction in which I have confidence as well, is that when this Central Banker, artificially price-distorted creature they call the US stock market finally rolls over and implodes in one glorious disaster, whether this event happens before or after the US elections, the descent is going to be very disorderly and on a grander scale than the crash of 2008.

 

About the author: JS Kim is the Founder and Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU. Subscribe to our RSS feed here as we often release articles a few days before posting here. Come by our website to receive sample issues of our gold and silver focused newsletter or to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter.

via http://ift.tt/2bbFJr0 smartknowledgeu

While Hillary Clinton continued her press conference radio silence, having avoided media Q&A for over 260 days, last night the Democratic candidate did appear on ACB’s Jimmy Kimmel live show where she responded to recent reports that her health is deteriorating, saying she feels like she is in an “alternative universe” and laughed off any questions about her health and stamina, arguing that the current speculation “makes no sense” because she doesn’t “go around questioning Donald Trump’s health.”

“I do feel sometimes like this campaign has entered into an alternative universe,” she told Jimmy Kimmel Live. “I have to step into the alternative reality, answer questions about am I alive, how much longer will I be alive.” Clinton was for the first time responding to allegations made by Trump and some of his backers that she is suffering health problems that could be problematic in the White House should she win the Nov. 8 election. Both Clinton and Trump have released notes from doctors declaring them physically fit for the presidency.

After Kimmel asked whether there was any truth to the rumors most recently raised by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the Democratic nominee for president extended her wrist and told the late night host to take her pulse “to make sure I’m alive.” Kimmel obliged, taking Clinton’s pulse with his thumb and joking: “Oh my God, there’s nothing there!” We assume that was a joke.

Kimmel then asked Clinton to open a jar of pickles as a test of her strength (she did so successfully).

“Back in October, the National Enquirer said I’d be dead in six months. So with every breath I take I feel like it’s a new lease on life,” she quipped. “I don’t know why they are saying this. I think on the one hand it’s part of the wacky strategy,” Clinton said of the GOP push to paint her as unhealthy. “On the other hand, it absolutely makes no sense.”

Clinton said that sometimes Trump’s remarks about her – such as a recent charge that President Barack Obama and Clinton co-founded the Islamic State, which he later said was sarcasm – go beyond personal attacks and become harmful to U.S. national security. “There’s enough evidence now that when Trump talks the way he talks it actually helps the terrorists,” Clinton said. “I think it’s crazy, but I think it’s also harmful.”

With the first general election debate approaching next month, Kimmel asked Clinton how she was preparing to face Trump. “You’ve got to be prepared for wacky stuff. I’m planning on drawing off my experiences from elementary school,” she said, noting that she also wanted Kimmel’s advice on how best to perform.

Later in the interview, Kimmel, acknowledging the continued fallout from the Democratic nominee’s use of a private email server, suggested that Clinton maybe consider “FaceTime” as an alternative to email. “I think that’s actually really good advice,” she said with a smile. The grandmother of two often talks about how much she loves using the technology while on the road and said she would be “distraught” without it.

Confirming that to Clinton the email scandal is a joke, Hillary said she isn’t worried about the additional e-mail release: “We’ve already released 30,000 plus, so what’s a few more.” And to think it only took constant, relentless lawsuits for her to make them public.

Full interview below:

via http://ift.tt/2beKs9Z Tyler Durden

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Commodity producers led gains in European equities and S&P 500 futures crept higher suggesting a green open. Even as markets swing between gains and losses, volatility across asset classes remained subdued, with a measure for U.S. stocks near a two-year low. Top news stories include: Bayer, Monsanto said to move closer to deal as
talks advance, Google said to recruit web stars, Hulu for virtual
reality push, Wal-Mart reviews Welspun records after target pulls sheets.

Perhaps the top story of the day is the ongoing dollar softness, which has promptly faded any residual Fischer/Dudley/Williams hawkishness and is back to Friday’s lows. The US currency slid against all except two of its 16 major peers as market participants raise doubts that Yellen will build upon recent hawkish comments by Fed officials at her Jackson Hole speech this Friday. Cited by Bloomberg, traders in Europe and Lonaon said that real money names for once seem to share this view, as they have been actively selling the dollar this week.  A report by a Fed staffer suggested that the Fed may have to unleash up to $4 trillion in QE if the US economy were to encounter a sharp recession.

 

As investors turn their attention to this week’s main event, Yellen’s speech at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 26, they are skeptical whether she will endorse comments from other Fed officials in the past week. The dollar capped its biggest two-day gain in a month on Monday as fed fund futures showed traders increased bets for an increase this year above 50 percent.  There are “fluid expectations for Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech,” said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA, in Gland, Switzerland. “Hawkish comments last week and rally in yield caused traders to question their expectations for no hike in September. The data is improving but it’s still at a very soft level and there’s really no need for the Fed to tighten prematurely at this point.”

The euro-area economy maintained its momentum in August, with growth showing little sign of being curtailed by fallout from the U.K.’s Brexit vote as a composite Purchasing Managers Index for the 19-nation region posting its strongest expansion in seven months, rising for a second month to 53.3 from 53.2 in July. That was the best reading in seven months. The increase was driven by an improvement in services, while manufacturing activity slipped.

• Eurozone Aug. Flash Composite PMI 53.3; Est. 53.1

• Eurozone Aug. Flash Services PMI 53.1; Est. 52.8
• Eurozone Aug. Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.8; Est. 52
• Germany Aug. Flash Composite PMI 54.4; Est 55.1
• France Aug. Flash Composite PMI 51.6 Vs 50.1; Est 50.4

“The PMIs suggest that growth still is more robust in the service sector than in manufacturing – a phenomenon that can be observed in many regions and that goes hand in hand with slow growth of global goods trade,” said Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen.

As a result, European shares advanced as commodity producers rebounded on higher metals prices while all 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise with basic resources, retail outperforming and health care, oil & gas underperforming. 86% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 12% decline. “We’ve had a decent rebound, largely driven by the basic- resource sector and some decent data,” said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Yesterday we saw a bit of a selloff, largely as a result of a decline in oil prices. Now we’re seeing some light buying on the back of some decent results from the housebuilding sector here in the U.K. and some fairly decent PMI data. There’s nothing really that came out this morning that would suggest that the rally we’ve seen thus far is under threat.”

In Asia, South Korea, Australia and Shanghai .SSEC all gained, while Japan’s Nikkei .N225 went the other way, easing 0.6 percent as the yen ground higher on the dollar. A survey of Japanese manufacturing activity for August showed output rose for the first time in six months, but the improvement was marginal and investors fixed their focus on the Fed instead.

10-year U.S. Treasury yields ticked up to 1.55 percent after falling 4 basis points overnight. German Bund yields nudged up as well along with the rest of the euro zone and UK Gilts. Fed fund futures imply around a 24 percent chance of an easing in September, rising to around 50 percent by December. A quarter-point hike is not fully priced in until September 2017.

In commodity markets, oil remained under pressure after shedding 3 percent on Monday amid worries about burgeoning Chinese fuel exports, more Iraqi and Nigerian crude shipments and a rising U.S. oil rig count. Brent crude lost 25 cents to $48.96 a barrel. It hit a two-month high of $51.22 on Friday. U.S. crude futures fell 36 cents to $47.07, after the September contract expired on Monday at $47.05.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2187
• Stoxx 600 up 0.7% to 343
• FTSE 100 up 0.5% to 6863
• DAX up 0.8% to 10577
• German 10Yr yield up 1bp to -0.08%
• Italian 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.14%
• Spanish 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.95%
• S&P GSCI Index down 0.8% to 361.4
• MSCI Asia Pacific up less than 0.1% to 139
• Nikkei 225 down 0.6% to 16497
• Hang Seng up less than 0.1% to 22999
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3090
• S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5554
• US 10-yr yield up 2bps to 1.56%
• Dollar Index down 0.12% to 94.41
• WTI Crude futures down 1.3% to $46.79
• Brent Futures down 1.2% to $48.56
• Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,339
• Silver spot up 0.6% to $19.03

Global Headlines

• Bayer, Monsanto Said to Move Closer to Deal as Talks Advance: Companies said on track to reach agreement in next two weeks. CEOs said to meet several times, price differences narrowing
• Google Said to Recruit Web Stars, Hulu for Virtual Reality Push: Company to release Daydream virtual reality service in weeks. Google said to back games, short films with YouTube celebs
• VW Resolves Standoff With Supplier After All-Night Negotiations: Six plants in Germany suspended production as parts withheld. Supplier’s unprecedented reaction affected 27,700 VW workers
• The Giant of Tokyo’s Stock Market Reveals Its Investment Secrets: Japan pension fund is top owner of MUFG, Honda, many more
• China’s Best Bank Called a ‘Mirage’ Built on Murky Shadow Loans: Case of Bank of Tangshan highlights opaque financial risks across nation
• World Bank Said to Be Planning SDR Bond Sale Next Week in China: Notes are set to price on Aug. 31, people familiar say
• Wal-Mart Reviews Welspun Records After Target Pulls Sheets: Retailer says it’s looking at Welspun certification records. Stock slumps 36% in two days; market value below $1b

Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks trade mixed following the subdued lead from the US in which the energy sector was the laggard after crude prices fell around 3%. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was weighed on by a firmer JPY as USD/JPY approached 100.00 to the downside, although the index rebounded off its worst levels and briefly turned positive with movements in the currency the main catalyst for price-action. ASX 200 (+0.7%) outperformed with advances in the financial sector spearheading the index to near 1% gains. Chinese markets were mixed with the Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) led higher on talk of reduced costs for businesses, while the Hang Seng (flat) was flat following some lacklustre earnings reports. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid a lack of risk-appetite in Japan, while today’s 20yr auction also provided support after the tail in price narrowed and bid to cover increased from the prior month. Japanese Manufacturing PM! (Aug) M/M 49.6 (Prey. 49.3), 6th consecutive month of contraction. (Newswires) PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6586 (Prey. 6.6652) and injected CNY 100bIn via 7-day reverse repos. (Newswires)

Top Asian News

• The Giant of Tokyo’s Stock Market Reveals Its Investment Secrets: Japan pension fund is top owner of MUFG, Honda, many more
• China’s Best Bank Called a ‘Mirage’ Built on Murky Shadow Loans: Case of Bank of Tangshan highlights opaque financial risks across nation
• World Bank Said to Be Planning SDR Bond Sale Next Week in China: Notes are set to price on Aug. 31, people familiar say
• China Telecom Profit Beats Estimates on Increase in Subscribers: Co. added about 32m 4G subscribers in 1H
• Doosan Bobcat Said to Gauge Korea IPO Demand in Early September: Korea Exchange said last week it approved co.’s share sale

EUropean equities have spent the session in the green (Euro Stoxx 50: +0.7%), with housing names among the best performers in the wake of Persimmon’s earnings (+3.7%), while material names also outperform, to pare some of yesterday’s losses. Separately on a stock specific note, automakers have been stealing the headlines, with Volkswagen (+2.3%) moving to session highs after making a deal with suppliers to end the recent suspension of production, while Renault (-1.6%) are among the worst performers after members of a state enquiry suggested a French government report omitted significant details of how Co.’s diesel cars were able to emit fewer emissions in official testing. Elsewhere, fixed income markets have seen another muted session of trade, with Bund futures continuing to hover around 167.50 and remain flat on the day, while the highlight may come later in the session in the form of the US 2-year note auction.

Top European News

• VW Resolves Standoff With Supplier After All-Night Negotiations: Six plants in Germany suspended production as parts withheld. Supplier’s unprecedented reaction affected 27,700 VW workers
• Schneider Said to Weigh Sale of Agriculture Data Service DTN: French company said to speak with potential sale advisers. Euromoney, others have previously shown interest in the unit
• UniCredit Jumps as PZU CEO Reported to Discuss Pekao Takeover: PZU CEO Krupinski will fly to Milan for talks, Dziennik says. UniCredit has been seeking to sell assets to boost capital

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.1 percent as of 6 a.m. in New York, after jumping 0.6 percent over the previous two trading days. South Korea’s won led gains among the 16 major currencies, jumping 1 percent versus the greenback. The yen appreciated 0.1 percent to 100.22 per dollar. “The U.S. dollar may have pulled back on hopes that the Jackson Hole symposium may focus on lower-for-longer type of policy rather than the need to imminently tighten policy,” said Vishnu Varathan, a senior economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “But in the run-up to Jackson Hole we do expect markets to be hyper-sensitive on U.S. policy hints, real or perceived, and so the U.S. dollar and U.S. yields will be volatile.” The New Zealand dollar surged as much as 1 percent after central bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said that while he intends to lower interest rates further to revive inflation, a series of rapid cuts is not justified. The South African rand was the next biggest gainer, appreciating 0.4 percent.

The commodity complex remains in focus, with WTI and Brent futures residing in close proximity to USD 47 and USD 49 respectively after the downside seen during yesterday’s session. Separately, the precious metals complex benefitted from the aforementioned USD softness early in the session, but the likes of gold and silver have failed to sustain these gains and now trade relatively flat on the session. Goldman Sachs maintained its USD 45-50/bbl estimate for Brent crude through to summer next year and added that an OPEC freeze and the USD is not sufficient to support oil further. GS added that an OPEC freeze with some non-OPEC nations could be self-defeating because it would mean that prices could rise and enable other producers to ramp up supply.

On the event calendar today, we’ll also get the flash manufacturing PMI (expected to decline to 52.6 from 52.9) along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey for this month. New home sales data in July will also be released where sales are expected to have declined -2% mom. Away from the data the ECB’s Coeure, Lane and Smets are due to speak at a panel discussion later this morning in Geneva on alternative proposals for fundamentally improving the pre-crisis policy frameworks in the Euro area.

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

• European equities enter the North American crossover in positive
  territory in what has been a quiet session once again and Eurozone PMIs
  dissipating some fears of a post-Brexit slowdown
• USD has
  been a key focus in FX markets as participants continue to question how
  committed Fed Chair Yellen will be at the Jackson hole speech on Friday
• Looking
  ahead, highlights include Turkish & Hungarian Interest Rate
  Decisions, US manufacturing PMIs, New Home Sales, APIs, ECB’s Coeure,
  Fed Discount Minutes and a US 2yr Note Auction

US Event Calendar

• 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Aug P, est. 52.6 (prior 52.9)
• 10:00am: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Aug., est. 6 (prior 10)
• 10:00am: New Home Sales, July, est. 580k (prior 592k); New Home Sales m/m, July, est. -2.0% (prior 3.5%)

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

August this year is proving to be very different to last year where risk assets were being routed following the fallout from the shock PBoC devaluation. In fact glancing back to the EMR on this day last year the Shanghai Comp was in the midst of a huge three-day slump in which the index capitulated 19%. Twelve months on and markets have rarely been this quiet. A little bit of to and fro from Fed speakers has at least caused some excitement but in general markets have had very little to feed off since earnings season wrapped up.

The main story over the last 24 hours has probably been the abrupt end to the recent rally for Oil with WTI (-3.46%) ending its run of seven consecutive daily gains. It barely caused a dent in US equity markets though with the S&P 500 ending -0.06% despite energy stocks coming under pressure. In fact the S&P 500 has now gone 31 consecutive sessions with daily moves up or down of less than 1% and in that time has traded in just a 61pt range.

Today we get the August flash PMI’s in Europe which should give markets something to focus on however. This will give us another important post-Brexit indicator which so far have been pretty resilient. Remember that the Euro area composite PMI actually edged up 0.1pts to 53.2 in July. Market expectations today is for the composite to stay pretty much unchanged (consensus forecast is 53.1) with the same said for both the manufacturing and services surveys. We’ll also get the readings for Germany and France with the manufacturing survey data for the UK, Spain and Italy coming next week and services data the week after.

Also out today is more data in the UK with the August CBI industrial trends orders and selling prices survey. Current market expectations are for the industrial orders data to deteriorate further. Later this afternoon we’ll also get the latest Euro area consumer confidence reading. So all that to look forward to today.

This morning in Asia it’s been yet another mixed start in markets. In Japan the Nikkei (+0.05%) and Topix (+0.04%) are little changed despite the Nikkei manufacturing PMI for Japan improving 0.3pts to 49.6 this month in the flash reading. The Hang Seng (-0.30%) is lower however while there have been gains for the Shanghai Comp (+0.47%), Kospi (+0.20%) and ASX (+0.84%). Sovereign bond markets are generally stronger while in FX Markets most emerging market currencies are up slightly. The other data out in Asia this morning came in China where the MNI business indicator for August fell 1.2pts to 54.3.
Moving on. Following on from the Fed Vice-Chair Fischer’s comments over the weekend, the initial reaction in the US Dollar was to rally with the index up as much as half a percent as we went to print yesterday. However that rally faded as the day progressed with the index eventually finishing unchanged. Treasuries followed a similar path. 2y and 10y yields were up as much as +3.2bps and +2.0bps respectively, but then unwound and actually rallied into the close, finishing -0.8bps and -3.6bps lower respectively.

The probability of a Fed rate hike by December ended up unchanged at 51% although pricing for September did actually nudge up slightly to 24% from 22%. It was the move in Oil which probably got the most attention though with that decline for WTI the largest since August 1st. The fingers of blame were pointed at increased expectations of more supply out of Iraq and also the news that a cease-fire was declared in the Niger Delta region, although this was also being met with some caution. Meanwhile metal markets were also a touch softer yesterday which weighed on commodity names in Europe. The Stoxx 600 closed +0.09% after initially climbing +0.90%.

With little in the way of economic data yesterday there was some focus on the informal European leaders meeting between Merkel, Hollande, and Renzi, intended to show their commitment to the EU post Brexit. According to the FT the leaders discussed forgoing a common plan to bolster Europe’s economy and also security, while the talks were also supposedly seen as a show of support for Renzi from Merkel ahead of the upcoming constitutional reform referendum in Italy.

Staying in Europe the latest ECB CSPP numbers were out yesterday. Impressively, given that it covers mid-August, they upped their purchases from a €250mn daily run rate the week before to €321mn this past week. The average daily number since the program started in June is around €350mn with July and Augusts’ purchases probably healthier than most would have expected given the holiday season. At this rate the €17.8bn total purchased so far is only within 2-3 weeks of exceeding the total ABS purchases of €20.3bn made since that program started in November 2014.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus will likely be on the aforementioned flash PMI’s for August, along with the UK CBI trends orders data for this month. As highlighted we’ll also receive the August consumer confidence reading for the Euro area in the afternoon where expectations are for a very modest improvement to -7.7 from -7.9. Meanwhile in the US we’ll also get the flash manufacturing PMI (expected to decline to 52.6 from 52.9) along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey for this month. New home sales data in July will also be released where sales are expected to have declined -2% mom. Away from the data the ECB’s Coeure, Lane and Smets are due to speak at a panel discussion later this morning in Geneva on alternative proposals for fundamentally improving the pre-crisis policy frameworks in the Euro area.

 

via http://ift.tt/2c25tpQ Tyler Durden

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

Back in the late ‘90s, I began saying, “I’ll give the EU twenty years.” At that point, the EU seemed to be going great guns, but I believed that it was an ill-conceived concept that wouldn’t stand the test of time.

There were several reasons for my view.

First, I didn’t believe that those countries that were entitlement-focused, such as the Greeks, would ever be as fiscally responsible as, say, the Germans, so the Germans (and other countries where there was a responsible work ethic) would end up subsidizing the Greeks (and to a lesser extent, Spain, Portugal, etc.)

 

Second, culturally, there was so great a divide between, say, the Austrians and the French, that they could never substantially agree on the union’s laws and directions.

 

Third, the countries of Europe have been at war with each other countless times over the centuries. They might agree to trade cooperation, but they would never agree to having a former enemy dictate policy to them. And it was baked in the cake that some members would have a louder voice than others, and so, would seek to dominate.

In recent years, we’ve watched the EU stumble repeatedly. Invariably, Brussels has arrogantly assumed that it can dictate to all EU members, and offers few apologies for doing so. The individual countries’ leaders then do their best to explain to their own voters why Brussels should be able to behave like an oligarchy, and the voters understandably have become increasingly angry.

Eventually, the wheels were sure to come off the trolley and, with the UK Brexit vote, we’ve witnessed the first major blow to the survival of the EU.

Whilst the “leave” vote has been acknowledged, we should expect to see politicians placing stones in the road to Brexit, in addition to creating repeated delays. It would also not be surprising to see demands for a recall or even a nullification by the UK Supreme Court.

In the midst of this, we’re already seeing the predictable backpedaling by those politicians and pundits who, up until the vote, were warning that a Brexit would spell unmitigated disaster for Britain. Most of them are now speaking instead of “working on crafting a successful settlement.” (After all, when the sky has failed to fall, they won’t want the public to remember that they ranted like veritable Chicken Littles prior to the vote.)

But, in one sense, the Brexit will unquestionably spell disaster—not for Britain, as was claimed, but for Brussels.

Britain was never fully married to the EU; she was more a “woman on the side,” but in this case, it was the woman that was picking up the tab for the affair. In 2015 alone, the UK paid £13 billion into the EU budget, whilst EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. The UK's “net contribution” was therefore about £8.5 billion – a loss of 65% of its investment. Not money well-spent, considering the trade restrictions heaped on the UK by Brussels.

The £8.5 billion loss, of course, went to support the net-receiver members of the EU, such as the ever-unapologetic Greece.

Most of the above will be common knowledge, but here’s a few pertinent questions that no one seems to be asking—at least not publicly:

At what point does the UK cease to pay into the EU?

Well, Brussels and those UK politicians that support the EU oligarchy concept will wish to delay that eventuality as long as they can. Consequently, we shall witness a struggle within British politics as politicians attempt to appear as though they’re honouring the voters’ edict, whilst finding repeated excuses to delay the Brexit. On the surface, it might not seem that they’d receive significant pushback, but, for those Britons who voted “leave” and, indeed for many who voted “remain,” the idea of Brussels demanding continued annual payment, whilst kicking the UK for choosing to leave, will result in the great majority of Britons becoming more than a little cross. (If we’re going to split the sheets, let’s get on with it. Any discussion of alimony should be a non-starter to say the least.)

Who’s going to pick up the tab when that flow of revenue ends?

Well, now, that really is a puzzler. A large part of the reason why the UK had to be such a significant net contributor was that most EU members couldn’t scrape up their “fair share.” Even most of the larger members, such as France, are broke. They can no longer pay their domestic bills, let alone take on more major EU funding.

When all else fails, it typically falls to Germany (the country that was really responsible for the EU’s creation in the first place) to pick up the tab. And it wouldn’t be surprising if Mrs. Merkel were to attempt to sell the idea to the German people that her “Fourth Reich” must come up with the cash, or her dream will fall apart.

Interestingly, Mrs. Merkel enjoyed an increase in popularity after the Brexit vote, after having lost a great deal of support as a result of the refugee crisis. However, once the German people learn that they may be hit with yet another EU bill, her ratings may head south again. She’s up for a fourth term in 2017 and it’s uncertain whether the German people will know by that date how the EU hopes to share out the former UK portion of the EU tab.

Will that impact the continuation of the EU?

The bill will most assuredly go to the remaining net-payer members and, for whoever gets handed the tab, the voters in these countries will most assuredly be asking themselves whether they’re facing diminishing returns. Certainly, Germany, France and the UK are presently taking the greatest shellacking. Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Denmark and Finland are also net contributors. But all the other 19 members are net receivers.

Certainly, the politicians in these countries share in the EU power and will want to stay in, but their voters who, increasingly, are feeling the squeeze of the unacknowledged Greater Depression may assert themselves at the polling stations, demonstrating that they’re not willing to throw good money after bad.

In the end, the conceptual problems with the EU’s existence may be outweighed by the economic ones. But of one thing we can be fairly certain: should the EU bite the dust in the coming years, the demand for its demise will come from the bottom up, not the top down.

via http://ift.tt/2bR1zP1 Tyler Durden

Hedge funders have a bit of an "image" issue on main street where their behavior is often viewed as "excessive".  Not to put words in anyone's mouth but we think phrases like "arrogant," "self-obsessed," and "detached from reality" have been tossed around.  Frankly we're not sure what they're talking about.

But, apparently the SEC is starting to take notice with plans to crack down on hedge fund and private equity expense reimbursements. 

We're all aware that hedge fund and private equity fees, equal to 2% of assets plus 20% of profits, are obscene, particularly in light of the inconvenient fact that a substantial portion of them consistently under-perform broader markets.  But what get less attention is how other "perks" are billed through to clients to boost fees even more.  These perks can include a variety of things like private jet charters, lavish hotel stays, and week-long conferences at exotic beach resorts.  Or it could be the private equity manager that sets up ancillary service firms, like a headhunting agency for example, and then pushes all hiring activities of portfolio companies through that internally owned entity rather than larger more established agencies…sure we see no conflict there.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the SEC is taking notice of these fees and plans to scrutinize them more in the future.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is closely scrutinizing the fees and expenses, including travel and entertainment, that hedge funds and private-equity firms charge to their investors.

As part of the Dodd-Frank financial law, the SEC now oversees more than 1,500 additional such advisers that were required to register with the agency. In that capacity, the SEC is checking to ensure they are charging their investors reasonable expenses.

"Exotic" expenses like travel, entertainment and consulting arrangements are more likely to attract the agency's attention than routine charges like legal and accounting fees, say compliance consultants who advise funds on registration and reporting requirements.

 

Firms may be asked questions such as why they used a private jet or flew first class, when investors were paying for that expense, he said.

 

The scrutiny comes as part of the SEC's new "presence exam" initiative for the firms now falling under the agency's regulatory umbrella. The program began last fall and is projected to last for two years. During the exams, SEC staff members choose one or two areas, such as conflicts of interest or portfolio management, and examine the books and records of the newly-registered adviser.

 

There aren't specific regulations about what qualifies as expenses that should be charged to the investors or paid by the adviser, but advisers do have a fiduciary duty to act in their clients' best interest. Typically, in addition to management and performance fees, investors also will pay for legal and accounting charges.

We would think it wouldn't be that difficult to uncover expenses from hedge funds and private equity firms that most people would consider "excessive."  Might we suggest starting with expense reports surrounding annual hedge fund conferences…we're sure there are some treasures there.  That said, with the extensive political influence of most of the large funds we won't hold our breath for the results. 

via http://ift.tt/2c1tX2t Tyler Durden