“Deadly, Devastating” Hurricane Irma Closes In On Florida; Millions Expected To Be Left Without Power

After “carving a path of destruction through the Caribbean,” a path which left 90% of Barbuda “uninhabitable” and nearly a million people without power in Puerto Rico, a slightly weakened, but still devastatingly massive Category-4 Hurricane Irma is closing in on Florida.  Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear environment for the next 36-48 h.  The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida.  After landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and increased shear, although Irma’s large wind field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area.  There are two caveats to the intensity forecast.  First, some additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement, followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes.  Second, the ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast. If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along the later parts of the track.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

 

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through Saturday.  Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of Hispaniola through today.  Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.

 

2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night. Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central Florida.

 

The NHC is currently forecasting that Irma will make its Florida landfall sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday morning as a powerful Cat-4 storm…

 

…packing winds of 155 mph…

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

  • INIT  08/0900Z 21.7N  73.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
  • 12H  08/1800Z 22.1N  75.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
  • 24H  09/0600Z 22.6N  77.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
  • 36H  09/1800Z 23.3N  79.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
  • 48H  10/0600Z 24.5N  80.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
  • 72H  11/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W   90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
  • 96H  12/0600Z 33.0N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH…INLAND
  • 120H  13/0600Z 36.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH…INLAND

 

…and a storm surge of up to 10 feet in the Florida Keys.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
  • Bonita Beach to Venice…3 to 5 ft
  • Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet…3 to 6 ft

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

Meanwhile, the strong winds are expected to take a toll on Florida’s power grid leaving a million or more people without power, potentially for weeks.  Per Reuters:

Hurricane Irma poses a bigger menace to power supplies in Florida than Hurricane Harvey did in Texas because Irma is packing near 200 mile-per-hour winds (320 km/h) that could down power lines, close nuclear plants and threats to leave millions of homes and businesses in the dark for weeks.

 

Irma’s winds rival the strongest for any hurricane in history in the Atlantic, whereas Harvey’s damage came from record rainfall. Even as Houston flooded, the power stayed on for most, allowing citizens to use TV and radio to stay apprised of danger, or social media to call for help.

 

“When Harvey made landfall in Texas it made it fully inland and weakened pretty quickly. Irma, however, could retain much of its strength,” said Jason Setree, a meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group.

 

Most Florida residents have not experienced a major storm since 2005, when total outages peaked around 3.6 million during Hurricane Wilma. Some of those outages lasted for weeks.

 

Setree compared the projected path of Irma to Hurricane Matthew in 2016, which knocked out power to about 1.2 million FPL customers in October.

 

“Should Irma’s worst fears be realized, our crews will likely have to completely rebuild parts of our electric system. Restoring power through repairs is measured in days; rebuilding our electric system could be measured in weeks,” FPL Chief Executive Eric Silagy said.

Power

 

And, of course, panic hoarding has already set in and left store shelves empty across much of Florida.

 

Not surprisingly, the mad rush to evacuate has left about 40% of the gasoline stations in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale region without fuel. Floridians have turned to the Crowd-Sourced ‘Gas Buddy’ App to determine which stations still have gas.

 

Not surprisingly, the shuttered stores have resulted in massive gas lines with people reportedly waiting up to 90 mins for fule.

Meanwhile, as we noted yesterday, meteorologists from Weather Underground are warning that the most devastating impacts of the storm could be felt much further north in towns along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where the storm surge could be a catastrophic 20-28 feet high in certain areas.  To put that in perspective, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 set a record for the largest storm surge ever recorded along the U.S. coast at 27.8 feet.

If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.

As Weather Underground notes, Savannah in Southern Georgia could see a surge of up to 23 feet if Irma strikes as a Category 3 storm.  Obviously, the surge would be even larger if Irma manages to maintain Cat-4 winds.

Maximum of the “Maximum Envelope of Waters” (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 3.5’) along the coast of Georgia. What’s plotted here is the storm tide–the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 19 – 23’ will occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast.

Meanwhile, further north in Charleston, SC the surge could also exceed 20 feet and flood areas many miles inland from the shore.

Maximum of the “Maximum Envelope of Waters” (MOM) water depth image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.5’) along the coast of South Carolina near Charleston. If Irma is a Cat 3 in South Carolina, a worst-case 17 – 21’ storm tide can occur.

 

All of which should make for a fairly depressing weekend of storm watching.

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The 1% Has Started To Embrace Bitcoin – Why It Matters

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Other than widespread fascination over its meteoric price rise, much of the discussion around Bitcoin in 2017 has revolved around questions over the future direction of the protocol, most specifically the highly charged scaling debate and the implementation of SegWit. With the forthcoming fight over the 2x part of SegWit2x, the blocksize issue remains unsettled and the community will stay firmly focused on this over the coming months, as it should.

While I have my own opinions on the subject (I’m against forcing a blocksize increase just because some companies agreed to it), I don’t spend enough time on Bitcoin to consider myself any sort of authority on the matter. Therefore, I pretty much keep my mouth shut and let people who spend all their time on the topic have at it. Nevertheless, when I feel I have something to add to the Bitcoin conversation I certainly don’t shy away, which is what inspired today’s post.

A headline that caught my attention yesterday was the following published by CNBC: Real Estate Project in Dubai to be the ‘First Major Development Where You Can Purchase in Bitcoin.’ Upon reading the article, it appears the move is in large part a marketing gimmick (a smart one), but I don’t think it’s just that. I believe those involved in the development genuinely find Bitcoin interesting and want to support it, which is consistent with a significant conclusion I’ve arrived at based on many other data points.

2017 has been the year when an increasing portion of the 1% finally started to embrace Bitcoin. Not a huge percentage by any means, but certainly enough to affect the price. We can call them the early(ish) adopters of this wealthy class. Specifically, this real estate project highlights the fact that adoption of Bitcoin amongst people with significant financial resources is happening faster than many realize. Why does this matter?

While it obviously matters to price, I’m thinking way beyond that. For starters, more wealthy people moving into the space helps provide some degree of political protection since we know that people with significant financial resources influence public policy. Just as Silicon Valley VCs coming into Bitcoin in the relatively early days helped provide political protection, so too will the involvement of more and more wealthy people. While that’s pretty important, I’m thinking beyond that still.

As I was reading the CNBC article I kept thinking to myself, “who in their right mind would part with Bitcoin for one of these apartments if they can spend their fiat instead.” As deflationary money, Bitcoin is structurally superior to the U.S. dollar or any other government/central bank run currency printed in unlimited quantities to prevent corrupt bankers from taking a loss. Sure, there will be those very early adopters who happen to have tens of millions of dollars in Bitcoin, thus representing the vast majority of their net worth. For them, it might make sense to spend some of their fortune on stuff like this real estate project, but for most people this is not the case. Most Bitcoin holders have far less than 50% of their net worth in Bitcoin, with much of the rest likely in shady central banker fiat currencies. These people will not be rushing to spend their Bitcoin on an apartment or anything similar, so what will cause Bitcoin to function more as a transactional currency? What needs to happen, and why does it matter?

Based on what I read, the Dubai real estate development does not seem to be offering apartments for sale in Bitcoin so they can get access to the crypto currency to hoard, but rather, they will immediately turn the proceeds into fiat via BitPay. I could be wrong about this, but that’s my assumption. If that’s the case, then this isn’t really drastically different from some of what we’ve seen in the past. What I’m really looking out for is the day when people start accepting large sums of Bitcoin as payment with the intention to hold it. Once this starts to happen, we’ll know some major changes are afoot.

While it’s true this may never happen, if Bitcoin continues along the successful path it’s currently on, forward thinking people inevitably will try to offer items for payment in Bitcoin, not for marketing reasons, but for the express purpose of obtaining Bitcoin. Why would they do this you ask, rather than just go to an exchange or buying OTC? My answer is that we may very well get to a point where whales want in, but simply cannot buy the amount they want without pushing price through the stratosphere. If that point arrives, the best option might be to sell assets for Bitcoin in order to obtain the desired stash. How will we know when that day has arrived?

Just because someone wants to acquire a bunch of Bitcoin doesn’t mean those who own it will part with it so easily. This is where discounts might come into play. If we enter a very inflationary future, the only way to pry Bitcoin loose from dedicated hodlers might be to offer discounts on real assets to those willing to pay in Bitcoin. That Miami condo you’re thinking about selling? Offer a 10-15% discount to those willing to pay in Bitcoin. I find it only marginally interesting when goods or services are offered for Bitcoin these days. What will really get my attention is if sellers start offering their wares at a discount to Bitcoin buyers.

The above probably won’t happen in earnest until the public really starts to lose faith in government/central bank currencies. When we hit that point, selling Bitcoin for fiat would carry too much risk for a holder and the only way one will feel incentivized to part with it is if real assets are offered at a discount, to the fiat price.

Of course, it’s entirely possible that the environment described above never occurs, but if things continue along their current trajectory the chances are increasingly likely. For me, the sign that things are entering a totally new era for Bitcoin, and money in general, is when sellers start to offer discounts for those willing to pay in Bitcoin. I’ll be watching very closely for that day, because it could very well represent a major inflection point in monetary history.

*  *  *

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BullionStar’s Website Features Content Rich Media on the Precious Metals Markets

Submitted by BullionStar.com

In addition to offering a full transactional platform for buying gold and buying silver, BullionStar's website features a wide variety of original research, analysis and content addressing the global precious metals markets. BullionStar's goal with this content is to provide readers and viewers with unique and up-to-date insights into the precious metals markets that are not available elsewhere.

A case in point is the BullionStar Perspectives video series which provides viewers with free access to original and independent opinions on the precious metals markets. In July, BullionStar had the privilege of hosting an exclusive interview in Singapore with legendary investor, author and financial commentator Jim Rogers, and this interview has now been published as part of the BullionStar Perspectives series.

Jim Rogers – Catastrophe and Opportunity

Rogers, who currently resides in Singapore, co-founded the famous Quantum Fund in 1973, and has written a number of best-selling investment and travel themed books.

This interview touches on potential crises that Rogers thinks could impact the global economy and the opportunities that such crises may offer investors. According to Rogers, catastrophe and opportunity can be viewed as two sides of the same phenomenon, and catastrophe and panic often creates buying opportunities.

Ideally, Rogers thinks the Federal Reserve should stand aside or even be aolished given that it is the cause of many finanical market problems, for example, for having driven interest rates to zero which is wiping out savers. Realistically, however, Rogers doubts that the Fed would be abolished, and in a future crisis will, as per usual, be pressured by vested interests into generating financial market rallies, reallies which will ultimately be futile.

Crucially, Rogers believes in the importance of acquiring physical gold and silver as an insurance policy, and in understanding what you are investing in. Everybody, he says, should have some gold and silver as an insurance policy if nothing else. “You hope you never need it”, but “its the best insurance policy in the world” he says.

Rogers owns his own physical gold, and thinks that due to future financial market instabilities, gold could well turn into its own bubble. This is because, when financial crises hit, people go to gold and silver as a safe haven asset. "That’s what they do", he says.

Rogers appreciates that the gold market is a fractional-reserve market, with only partial backing by real physical metal. On the subject of paper gold versus physical gold, Rogers envisages that in a real crisis, there won’t be a paper gold market – the paper gold markets will close down due to widespread market chaos. That is why there is a need for physical gold ownership, gold in your pocket or gold stoted in a vault.

Jim, who has some of his own gold stored in Singapore, thinks that Singapore is a better jurisdiction than most for storing gold, and offers an added attraction is that buying investment gold and silver in Singapore is free of sales tax (GST free).

The Jim Rogers Interview, which is just over 14 minutes long, can be viewed here:

Other videos in the BullionStar Perspectives videos series include Marcus Grubb of the World Platinum Investment Council on the Case for Platinum. Bron Suchecki of Monetary Metals on the intricacies between the physical and paper gold markets, Chris Powell of GATA on price manipulation in the gold market,  analyst Jayant Bhandari on the Indian gold market, and Ronan Manly of BullionStar on Secrecy vs Transparency in the gold market.

The BullionStar website also features in-depth factual gold market information in BullionStar's Gold University portal, original research and analysis of the global precious metals markets by BullionStar analysts Koos Jansen and Ronan Manly, a unique monthly review of the world's most important physical gold markets in chart form in BullionStar's Gold Market Charts series, and a specific company-focused blog series known as BullionStar Blogs (aka 'Inside BullionStar').

BullionStar's Gold University is a Wikipedia-style resource for use by the gold industry, by financial media and reporters and by general readers. It features contemporary factual information covering the world's gold markets, a selection of the world's largest gold vaults, profiles of the world's largest precious metals refineries and mints, and profiles gold industry associations. It also contains sections addressing the core concepts of the Chinese gold market, central bank policies on gold, and the mechanics of bullion banking and gold ETFs.

Articles and analysis by BullionStar analysts Koos Jansen and Ronan Manly, published in the form of blogs, keep readers up to date with developments in the precious metals markets. These blogs contain original research, such as in-depth analysis of the Chinese and London gold markets, and these blogs are popular across the precious metals industry as well as being frequently featured across many other websites.

BullionStar's Gold Market Charts uses charts by webite http://ift.tt/1pNpyKx to capture current developments and demand and flow trends in the world’s most important physical gold markets. These markets include China, India, Russia and Switzerland.

The BullionStar Blog's series (Inside BullionStar) features posts relevant to the company BullionStar and its products, but also extends to hosting interesting articles on aspects of the gold market and it also hosts BullionStar's unique Infographics on the gold market, such as an infographic on the Chinese Gold Market.

All of the above content can be found on the BullionStar site under the 'BullionStar Research' menu.

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Trump Now “Hates” Gary Cohn, Who “May Be Pressured To Leave White House”: Report

When Gary Cohn criticized Trump’s response to the Charlottesville tragedy, he set off a sequence of events which not only appears to have cost the former Goldman COO his future job as Fed chair, but – according to an overnight report from Reuters – he job as Trump’s chief economic advisor.

Extending on recent reports from the WSJ that Gary Cohn has lost Trump’s good graces in recent days, Reuters focuses on that the newly fraying relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, which has raised questions about how long Cohn will stay in his job, according to two people with close ties to the White House. Several sources quoted by Reuters said Cohn had long planned to stay in his post for at least a year. But one source said concern had grown among Cohn’s allies over the past 24 hours that he might be pressured to leave.

The recent concerns stem from a report in the Wall Street Journal that Cohn was unlikely to be nominated by Trump as a potential successor to Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Trump had mentioned Cohn in July for the job. Cohn resigned as president of Goldman Sachs to join the new administration.

“The calculus has shifted for Gary. He’s gone, essentially, from untouchable to possibly being bounced out,” the source said. “The message is clear that suddenly Cohn’s job in the White House has real downside risk.”

As reported at the time, the formerly sterling relationship between the two men broke down last month when Cohn crossed Trump, critizing the president in a Financial Times interview for his response to the violence at a rally organized by white nationalists in Charlottesville, Virginia, in which one woman died. 

Cohn, who is Jewish, told the newspaper the administration “must do better” in condemning neo-Nazis and white supremacists.

One source close to the White House said Trump wanted to fire Cohn. “Hates him. But that could be ephemeral,” the source said.

While Cohn’s FT interview was intended to signal that Cohn had no plans to leave the White House and planned to push ahead with his signature project, tax reform, sources said the comments upset Trump.

Trump has gone hot and cold on other advisers, some of whom have stayed, while others have left.

“Relationships change,” said a third source with close ties to the White House. “If Gary sticks around, I fully expect that Gary’s relationship with the president will improve.”

 

People who know Cohn say that when he does leave the White House, he wants it to be on his own terms.

Meanwhile, the official narrative is that all remains well: a White House official said Cohn was focused on his job, especially tax reform.

“Gary is focused on his responsibilities as the director of the National Economic Council, including a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to deliver meaningful tax reform that creates jobs and grows the economy,” the official said.

Perhaps… but not according to the market: as recently as late August week Gary Cohn was seen as the frontrunner to succeed Janet Yellen.  As Of this moment, he is barely in the top 3 according to PredictIt.

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“Greatest Fiscal Crisis In Our City’s History”: Hartford Warns It Will Be Broke In 60 Days

Well, that escalated quickly.

Just two months after Standard & Poor’s downgraded its general obligation debt to junk status, warning that the historic Connecticut capital could soon follow other once-proud cities like Detroit into bankruptcy, Hartford city officials confirmed as much when they warned on Thursday that the city could be forced into insolvency within two months if the state doesn’t provide emergency financial relief, the WSJ reports.

“City officials warned Gov. Dannel Malloy, a Democrat, and state lawmakers that Hartford, which has a deficit approaching $50 million, wouldn’t be able to pay all of its bills within 60 days. Hartford officials said it would file for bankruptcy at that point unless the state legislature passes a budget that gives the city more funding or otherwise provides it with more cash.

 

‘We face the greatest fiscal crisis in our city’s history,’ officials said in a letter signed by Mayor Luke Bronin, Treasurer Adam Cloud and Thomas Clarke II, president of the court of common council.”

Hartford has been plagued by political corruption and a disintegrating corporate tax base – most recently exemplified by health-insurance giant Aetna’s decision to move its corporate headquarters away from the city, which was once proudly called “the Insurance Capital of the World.”  

And unfortunately for the struggling capital, political discord involving both lame-duck Gov. Dannel Malloy and leaders in the state legislature suggests that an agreement to save the city won’t be forthcoming.  

State legislators won’t return from recess until next week. But according to the Connecticut Mirror legislative leaders have yet to reach a budget deal with Malloy after failing to pass one in late June, forcing the governor to fund the state’s operations using emergency measures, slashing funding for municipal services across the state.

“We could not agree more with the urgency of the situation, particularly for the City of Hartford,” a spokeswoman for Mr. Malloy said. “We continue to hope to have a full budget adopted by October to mitigate the harm and avoid having towns or cities go through reorganization.”

As WSJ points out, the state of Connecticut is struggling with unprecedented fiscal challenges of its own. Its leaders must pass a budget to close a $3.5 billion spending gap.

In a situation that echoes President Donald Trump’s struggles with Republicans in Congress, Malloy has found himself butting heads with members of his own party during the budget-negotiation process. To wit, the Democratic

Speaker of the Connecticut State Assembly Joe Aresimowicz has said he will call a vote for the budget plan on Sept. 14 to try and force lawmakers’ hands.

“Democratic Speaker of House Joe Aresimowicz said Wednesday he planned to call for a vote on the budget on Sept. 14 even though lawmakers have yet to reach a consensus on a spending plan. It is unclear if there will be enough votes in both chambers to pass it.

 

House Democrats said calling for a vote on the budget will put pressure on lawmakers to choose between that spending plan, which likely would give more money to cities and towns, or the governor’s executive order, which has made painful cuts to municipal funding.

 

‘If you are not part of the solution, you are voting for the executive order,’ said House Majority Leader Matt Ritter, who represents Hartford.”

Only 64 bankruptcies have been filed by cities, counties, towns and villages since 1954, according to James Spiotto, an attorney who tracks municipalities’ bankruptcies, who told WSJ.

The Californian cities of San Bernardino and Stockton filed for bankruptcy in 2012. The U.S. territory of Puerto Rico filed for a form of bankruptcy that incorporates parts of chapter 9 law, the type of protection used by struggling cities and counties earlier this year. Detroit filed for bankruptcy in 2013, though there was some disagreement in the courts about whether the city was eligible to file. It has since exited bankruptcy.

Hartford likely can’t cut spending to solve its problems, according to a recent report by Moody’s that was cited by WSJ.

“There is very little room for further cuts, given the reductions in services the city has already made and its fixed costs and education mandates,” Moody’s said. “Hartford would likely be eliminating, rather than reducing, core services.”

As with other troubled cities and states, the rising cost of paying out generous health-care and pension benefits for municipal employees are two of Hartford’s biggest fiscal challenges. The city owes nearly $180 million in payments for debt service, health care, pensions and other costs for the current fiscal year, according to WSJ. That’s equivalent to more than half the city’s budget, excluding education.

Rising fixed costs for health care and pensions have been driving Hartford’s fiscal challenges. The city is on the hook for nearly $180 million in payments for debt service, health care, pensions and other costs for the current fiscal year. That is more than half of the city’s budget, excluding education.

Hartford officials said its law firm Greenberg Traurig LLP will engage in negotiations with its bondholders, and asked bond holders to be “part of the solution,” to which we say…good luck with that.

“Our bondholders understand that our debt burden is unmanageable,” city officials said in the letter. “They will need to be part of the solution today, through a serious, sustainable, long-term debt restructuring.”

Despite the city’s fiscal woes, developers are trying to revitalize Hartford’s downtown by building condos, hoping to attract millennial young professionals who purportedly prefer to live in urban environments. Whether this effort is successful at attracting what could be a crucial new component of the city’s tax base has yet to be determined. This summer, the developer of a recently build soccer stadium that was plagued by cost overruns and shady financing scandals has been convicted of fraud and money laundering.

For their part, city officials have asked the state to reimburse it for its nontaxable property, more than half of which consists of state-owned buildings, as well as colleges and hospitals. They’ve also asked the state legislature to create a new board to settle contract disputes with labor unions.

But with the state still struggling with a crisis of its own making, it’s unclear whether any help will be forthcoming.

Like they say: One drowning man cannot help another drowning man.

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Gold/Dollar-Multi year breakout, says Joe Friday

joe friday, chris kimble post

Gold has been weaker than the US$ since 2011 highs, highlighted in Gold/Dollar chart below. The ratio is attempting to do something this week that it hasn’t been able to accomplish the past few years-

gold dollar ration GC1! / DXY chris kimble post

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The ratio has traded sideways for the past three years, inside the blue shaded zone-

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– Gold/Dollar ratio is attempting a breakout above dual multi-year resistance this week at (1).

Gold/Dollar strength in the past has been positive for Gold, Silver and Miners. Will it be different this time?

To send a positive message to these assets that these assets are attempting to break a multi-year trend, one needs to see the ratio continue higher.

 


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Robots Know If You’re Gay, Hurricanes Thwart ICE-Raid Plans, Surrogacy Debate About to Heat Up (Thanks, Kim and Kanye!): A.M. Links

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President Trump Slams GOP Establishment Over Filibuster Rule: “It’s A Republican Death Wish”

Shortly after former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon told Politico that Washington’s “Republican establishment,” including the top GOP leaders in both houses of Congress, “is trying to nullify the 2016 election,” President Trump took to Twitter to explain why he did the deal with ‘Chuck and Nancy’, shunning the GOP…

So, Trump is clearly still upset about congress not lifting the filibuster rule, which perhaps confirms Bannon’s view that more traditional Republicans are looking to undermine President Donald Trump…

“I think Mitch McConnell, and to a degree, Paul Ryan. They do not want Donald Trump’s populist, economic nationalist agenda to be implemented,” Bannon replied.

 

“It’s obvious as night follows day is what they’re trying to do.”

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Gartman: “We Are To Err Bullish Of Equities In Global Terms, Deer-In-Headlights Fearfully Long”

If there was any doubt whether Dennis Gartman was simply trolling the subscribers to his daily newsletter before – and everyone else – the following excerpt should clarify it all.

STOCK PRICES, GLOBALLY, HAVE CONTINUED TO QUIETLY RISE and once again we note what “Old Turkey” said to the young Jesse Livermore: “After all, this is a bull market” for nothing seems able to stem the global bull markets steady, relentless and even surprising strength. The global bull market can absorb the seriousness of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma; it can absorb the continued threats from North Korea; it can absorb the threats to the very veracity of the European Union as the citizens of Catalonia are prepared to separate in a quiet civil “war” from the rest of Spain. It absorbs the high valuations to which share prices have advanced relative to book value; P/e multiples are high and rising; price:book value ratios are as extended as we’ve seen them since the late 90’s and the early first years of this century.

 

Government borrowing ratios compared to GDP estimates are historically wide; wage pressures are being felt everywhere and margin usage is egregiously extended… and yet prices move higher.

 

So, we are left with the singular notion that this does indeed remain a bull market, but risking abject, disdainful redundancy, we shall again iterate that we are to err bullishly of equities in global terms but we needn’t be… nor should we be… aggressively so. Modestly long; tenuously long; deer-in-the-headlights fearfully long…. That’s what we are or should be as of the moment and that’s all we shall advocate.

 

* * *

 

In our retirement account here at TGL we made no changes in our positions yesterday, ending the day as we had begun it: long of gold in EUR, Yen and US dollar terms; long of gold and long of the long end of the US bond market, and finally long of a small amount of corn via the CORN ETF.

Good job Dennis: best newsletter humor money can buy.

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Mexico Shaken By “Most Powerful Earthquake In A Century”, At Least 15 Dead

Southern Mexico was shaken late Thursday by an 8.1-magnitude earthquake that killed at least 15 people, triggered a tsunami warning and was felt as far away as Mexico City . Despite the immense power of the tremor, which Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto described as “the most powerful earthquake in a century," authorities said it had caused limited damage – but warned residents in affected areas to brace for aftershocks.

According to the Associated Press, the quake caused buildings to sway violently in Mexico's capital more than 650 miles away from its epicenter. Residents fled buildings in their pajamas and gathered in frightened groups in the street.

While Mexico City avoided the widespread devastation of a 1985 quake that killed thousands, the tremor was strong enough to shatter windows at Mexico City airport and knock out power for one million residents, according to Reuters. For many, access has yet to be restored.

A number of buildings suffered severe damage in parts of southern Mexico. Some of the worst initial reports came from Juchitan in Oaxaca state, where sections of the town hall, a hotel, a bar and other buildings were reduced to rubble. The cornice of a hotel fell in the southern tourist city of Oaxaca, a witness told Reuters. The tremor was felt as far away as neighboring Guatemala.

The death toll could rise as first responders look for more victims in the affected area. The government closed schools Friday in at least 11 states to check them for safety, according to the AP.

Chiapas Gov. Manuel Velasco said that three people were killed in San Cristobal, including two women who died when a house and a wall collapsed. He asked that people who live near the coast leave their homes for protection in case there are aftershocks.

"There is damage to hospitals that have lost energy," he said. "Homes, schools and hospitals have been damaged."

One witness said his house moved “like chewing gum.”

“‘The house moved like chewing gum and the light and internet went out momentarily,’ said Rodrigo Soberanes, who lives near San Cristobal de las Casas in the southernmost state of Chiapas.”

Tabasco Gov. Arturo Nunez said two children had died in his state. One of them was killed when a wall collapsed. The other, a baby, died in a children's hospital that lost electricity, cutting off the infant's ventilator. Meanwhile, the town hall in San Cristobal was badly damaged.

 

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said waves more than three feet above the tide level were measured off Salina Cruz. Smaller tsunami waves were observed in several other places. The center's forecast said Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala could see waves of a meter or less. Hawaii and much of the South Pacific were expected to be unaffected. In neighboring Guatemala, President Jimmy Morales asked residents to stay calm while security crews checked for damage.

"We have reports of some damage and the death of one person, even though we still don't have details," Morales said. He said the unconfirmed death occurred in San Marcos state near the border with Mexico.

Lucy Jones, a seismologist in California who works with the U.S. Geological Survey, told the AP that the quake was expected.

"Off the west coast of Mexico is what's called the subduction zone, the Pacific Plate is moving under the Mexican peninsula," she said. "It's a very flat fault, so it's a place that has big earthquakes relatively often because of that."

 

"There's likely to be a small tsunami going to the southwest. It's not going to be coming up and affecting California or Hawaii," she said. "For tsunami generation, an 8 is relatively small."

Pena Nieto and his team set up a response center to coordinate a response to the quake.

Meanwhile, residents of nearby Veracruz are preparing for the possible landfall of category 2 Hurricane Katia, one of three active cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Further north, in Southeastern Florida, hundreds of thousands of Americans rushed to evacuate as Hurricane Irma, currently a category four storm, is expected to make a historic landfall this weekend.

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Separately, in what some have described as a "fascinating" phenomenon, a mysterious glow called earthquake lights appeared in the skies above Mexico’s capital, baffling residents who had gathered outside to commiserate about the quake, according to RT. The lights could be seen flashing above Mexico City in hues of greens and white.

 

Little is known about the phenomenon, RT says, though it can sometimes be explained by exploding generators or power grids. Some scientists believe the tectonic movement of rocks like quartz generates a piezoelectric field, which produces flashes of light.

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