Obama Responds To Saudi Threat To Dump Treasuries If Its Role In Sept 11 Is Probed

This weekend’s biggest, and most shocking story, was the report that in response to a proposed Congressional Bill that would allow a probe into the Saudi role behind the Sept 11 terrorist attack, Saudi Arabia had threatened the US with dumping its roughly $750 billion in Treasury holdings.

What was curious about the story is that while Saudi Arabia implicitly admitted it had a role in the September 11, the Obama administration was actively doing everything in its power to prevent the Bill from passing, and thus to keep the truth under wraps, leading many to wonder if Obama was more concerned about his own people or a handful of uber-wealthy Saudi princes.

Moments ago White House spokesman Josh Earnest chimed in, and validated all of those fears.

  • EARNEST: BILL WOULD OPEN U.S. TO GLOBAL LEGAL VULNERABILITIES
  • WHITE HOUSE SAYS IT IS CONFIDENT THAT SAUDIS RECOGNIZE THE SHARED INTEREST WITH THE U.S. IN PROTECTING STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM
  • EARNEST: DON’T KNOW IF BILL WILL BE TOPIC ON OBAMA SAUDI VISIT

And the punchline:

  • EARNEST COMMENTS ON BILL TO ALLOW LAWSUITS BY SEPT. 11 FAMILIES
  • EARNEST SAYS BILL TO ALLOW LAWSUITS AGAINST SAUDI CONCERNING
  • EARNEST: OBAMA WOULDN’T SIGN SUE-SAUDI BILL AS DRAFTED

In short: whether due to the Saudi threat, or just because of its default position on the matter, Obama will block the Bill and no further probes into Saudi involvement in the Sept 11 tragedy will be allowed.

And with that any concerns about whether the US president represents not only the interests of the Sept 11 victims and their families, but all all American people, and is intent on discovering who the real culprit behind the deadliest terrorist attack on US soil, as opposed to the interests of few Saudi billionaires and would much rather have the truth remain suppressed in 28 top secret pages and certainly in the public domain, were just answered.

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Debt Grows 3.5x Faster Than GDP – “Big Hole Likely To Cave In Before We Claw Our Way Out”

Via MauldinEconomics.com,

You often hear me harping on the dangers of too much debt, and I keep my eyes peeled for significant work that backs up my concerns.

In my recent Outside the Box, good friend Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management gave us more ammunition to take on those who just don’t seem to get that the endless piling up of debt is not a sustainable way to run an economy.

The most striking feature of the US economy’s performance in 2015, according to Lacy, was a massive advance in nonfinancial debt that kept the economy stuck in the doldrums of subpar growth. 

US nonfinancial debt rose 3.5 times faster than GDP last year. (Nonfinancial debt is the sum of household debt, business debt, federal debt, and state and local government debt.)

Lacy also points out unfavorable trends in each component of nonfinancial debt.

Household debt:

Delinquencies in household debt moved higher even as financial institutions continued to offer aggressive terms to consumers, implying falling credit standards. Furthermore, the New York Fed said subprime auto loans reached the greatest percentage of total auto loans in ten years. Moreover, they indicated that the delinquency rate rose significantly.

Business debt:

Last year business debt, excluding off balance sheet liabilities, rose $793 billion, while total gross private domestic investment (which includes fixed and inventory investment) rose only $93 billion. Thus, by inference this debt increase went into share buybacks, dividend increases, and other financial endeavors…. When business debt is allocated to financial operations, it does not generate an income stream to meet interest and repayment requirements. Such a usage of debt does not support economic growth, employment, higher paying jobs, or productivity growth. Thus, the economy is likely to be weakened by the increase of business debt over the past five years.

Federal debt:

US government gross debt, excluding off balance sheet items, gained $780.7 billion in 2015 or about $230 billion more than the rise in GDP….
The divergence between the budget deficit and debt in 2015 is a portent of things to come. This subject is directly addressed in the 2012 book The Clash of Generations, published by MIT Press, authored by Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns. They calculate that on a net present value basis the US government faces liabilities for Social Security and other entitlement programs that exceed the funds in the various trust funds by $60 trillion. This sum is more than three times greater than the current level of GDP.

State and local government debt:

State and local governments … face adverse demographics that will drain underfunded pension plans…. The state and local governments do not have the borrowing capacity of the federal government. Hence, pension obligations will need to be covered at least partially by increased taxes, cuts in pension benefits or reductions in other expenditures.

Lacy adds this note on total debt, which includes nonfinancial, financial, and foreign debt:

Total debt … increased by $1.968 trillion last year. This is $1.4 trillion more than the gain in nominal GDP. The ratio of total debt-to-GDP closed the year at 370%, well above the 250–300% level at which academic studies suggest debt begins to slow economic activity.

The key point he makes is that over-indebtedness impairs monetary policy, not just in the US but globally:

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank of China have been unable to gain traction with their monetary policies…. Excluding off balance sheet liabilities, at year-end the ratio of total public and private debt relative to GDP stood at 350%, 370%, 457% and 615%, for China, the United States, the Eurocurrency zone, and Japan, respectively…. The debt ratios of all four countries exceed the level of debt that harms economic growth. As an indication of this over-indebtedness, composite nominal GDP growth for these four countries remains subdued. The slowdown occurred in spite of numerous unprecedented monetary policy actions—quantitative easing, negative or near zero overnight rates, forward guidance and other untested techniques.

Now think about this, gentle reader. We’re digging a great big hole that is likely to cave in on us before we manage to claw our way back out of it.

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“It’s Like A Godzilla Movie” – Stunning Drone Footage Of Japanese Quake Destruction

The following shocking drone footage of the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake cluster this weekend (from Thursday through Monday, more than 500 quakes shook the region) shows the scale of the damage wrought. As one comment noted, “it looks like a Godzilla movie,” but sadly this is very real as Satoshi Matsumoto, associate professor at the seismology institute of Kyushu University, warned the ground underneath the island cracked unusually easily, which could allow one quake to cause others in a cascade, spreading them through a wider-than-usual area.

 

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Milton Friedman Helped Invent Income Tax Withholding

Before World War II, when income tax rates were comparatively low, most people who owed tax simply paid it in a lump sum in March. Tax day was a big annoying occasion on which the nation took a moment to be bummed about how much the government cost. 

Enter Hitler. And a young, brash economist named Milton.

In 1995, Reason’s Brian Doherty conducted a wide-ranging interview with Friedman and asked him, essentially, “Daddy, what did you do during the war?”:

Reason: You were involved in the development of the withholding tax when you were doing tax work for the government in 1941–43?

Friedman: I was an employee at the Treasury Department. We were in a wartime situation. How do you raise the enormous amount of taxes you need for wartime? We were all in favor of cutting inflation. I wasn’t as sophisticated about how to do it then as I would be now, but there’s no doubt that one of the ways to avoid inflation was to finance as large a fraction of current spending with tax money as possible.

In World War I, a very small fraction of the total war expenditure was financed by taxes, so we had a doubling of prices during the war and after the war. At the outbreak of World War II, the Treasury was determined not to make the same mistake again.

You could not do that during wartime or peacetime without withholding. And so people at the Treasury tax research department, where I was working, investigated various methods of withholding. I was one of the small technical group that worked on developing it.

One of the major opponents of the idea was the IRS. Because every organization knows that the only way you can do anything is the way they’ve always been doing it. This was something new, and they kept telling us how impossible it was. It was a very interesting and very challenging intellectual task. I played a significant role, no question about it, in introducing withholding. I think it’s a great mistake for peacetime, but in 1941–43, all of us were concentrating on the war.

I have no apologies for it, but I really wish we hadn’t found it necessary and I wish there were some way of abolishing withholding now.

By making taxes relatively invisible and making paying them relatively painless, Friedman paved the way for the current status quo, in which significant portions of salaried workers’ incomes are handed over to state and federal governments without much fuss. Tax refunds, which feel like a delightful windfall to those who receive them, complicate the matter further by making many Americans feel like they are getting a gift on tax day, rather than giving their hard-earned money to the government under threat of violence. 

To review:

1) War is the heath of the state. 

2) All your heroes are flawed.

Happy Tax Day! 

P.S. Ease the sting of this revelation by reading the rest of that interview to be reminded of all the great stuff Friedman did, too.

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Let’s Hear It for Contested Conventions

Pro-Kennedy delegates waved these signs in 1980 to protest the fact that everyone had to vote—like "robots"—for the candidates they were pledged to. Or maybe they were afraid of a robot invasion. One or the other.I don’t have a candidate in the Republican presidential race, but I do have an outcome to root for. It seems more and more likely that the GOP will begin its convention without a clear-cut nominee, and I hope that is in fact what happens. No matter which clown gets the crown, let him scrap for it in Cleveland.

There was a time when the whole point of a political convention was to select a candidate, but those days ended long ago. The last semi-serious attempt to derail a nominee’s victory at a convention was in 1980, when Ted Kennedy tried to change the rules so delegates pledged to Jimmy Carter could vote for him instead. The last convention that began with any real uncertainty about who would win it was in 1976, when Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford were still battling over delegates as the confab started. The last convention that actually took multiple ballots to pick a winner was in 1952, way back at the beginning of the TV era, when the Democrats went through three rounds of voting before settling on Adlai Stevenson as their standard-bearer. (That was also the last time a major party picked a nominee who wasn’t a declared candidate when the convention began.) Genuinely contested conventions continue to take place in the third-party realm—I’ve been to two of them—but not in the parties that most people pay attention to.

As the political importance of the conventions declined, they devolved into increasingly empty rituals, a quadrennial rite where the party papers over its members’ differences and broadcasts an infomercial to the nation. By 2012, things had decayed to the point where a candidate who had not dropped out of the race and had dozens of delegates supporting him—Ron Paul—was barred from speaking to the convention unless he agreed to submit his remarks in advance and to endorse the nominee. (He refused.) We were a long way from the days when Eugene McCarthy could address the Democratic convention in August 1968 yet not get around to deciding he’d vote for the guy who beat him til late October.

I have no nostalgia for the practice of party bosses picking nominees in smoke-filled convention rooms; the best alternative to today’s sorts of corruption and manipulation is not to return to the corruption and manipulation of yesteryear. But if we strip a party of the power to stage a completely choreographed spectacle, that just might inject some substance into the proceedings. At the very least, it would let the seams show. What a pleasure it would be to turn on the TV during convention week and see some actual unscripted disagreement.

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High School Says Squirt Gun Game Is ‘Very Dangerous, Serious Safety Issue’

Squirt gunA Pittsburgh public school principal is urging parents to talk to their kids about a “serious safety issue.” No, it’s not guns, or even lookalike guns. The principal is worried about squirt guns, which are absolutely prohibited at Hempford Area Senior High School. 

Their use outside of school grounds is also frowned upon, according to principal Kathy Charlton, who recently sent a letter home to parents warning them about “very dangerous” squirt gun games being played by students. 

Hempford seniors are engaged in a continuous game of “Squirt Gun Assassin,” according to CBS Pittsburgh. The game involves—you guessed it—teenagers shooting each other with water guns. Charlton’s letter to parents claims that participants have been known to chase each other in cars, and some money has changed hands. But the letter does not document a single tangible incident in which a kid got hurt. 

“We hope you will speak to your child to urge them to discontinue participation in this game,” wrote Charlton. “We appreciate your help and support, because we do not want to see anyone tragically injured or harmed due to participation in this activity.” 

No one wants kids to get tragically injured. But at the same time, no one should want them to lead dull, sheltered lives. Playing with squirt guns is a natural, time-honored childhood tradition—not something to be feared or discouraged. 

So, Pittsburgh-area parents: Please don’t talk to your kids about Squirt Gun Assassin. Tell them to go outside and have fun for a change. 

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60 Minutes Shows Nature of Smartphone Vulnerabilities Some Senators Want to Preserve

smartphoneA 60 Minutes segment on smartphone hacking that ran over the weekend seemed mostly designed to make the average consumer scared about the state of his or her cybersecurity. Oddly, despite having the involvement of tech privacy-oriented congressman Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) onboard, the segment, by correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi, did not engage in any discussion about the big, current encryption debate happening on Capitol Hill, nor really any federal policies that might impact personal cybersecurity either positively or negatively.

Instead, the segment has “white hat” hackers in Germany break into a phone 60 Minutes provided to Lieu, given only his phone number. They succeed and are able to listen into his phone calls and access the content of his phone. Similarly, a group of hackers at Las Vegas’ annual DEF CON hacking conference were able to trick Alfonsi into connecting her phone into a spoof wi-fi connection (which she thought was her hotel’s wi-fi) and access her phone data, and through that personal credit card data.

It isn’t until the end of the 13-minute segment when it delves into who is most endangered by these cybersecurity weaknesses where we get into the political scope—Lieu himself mentions he had been called by President Barack Obama on his cell phone last year (not the one provided for this experiment, obviously). If the president had called this phone in Lieu’s possession, it would have given hackers potential inroads to communications by the president of the United States.

The ultimate message of the segment is that our data is only as secure as technology is able to keep up with potential causes of breaches. An accurate assessment, obviously, but given Lieu’s involvement in the segment and his record on opposing unaccountable federal data gathering, it is a little bit odd that given the current tech debate, 60 Minutes did not get into the role encryption plays in helping prevent the examples we’re shown—or if it even would have made a difference. Would end-to-end encryption (like WhatsApp has started offering) have prevented the hackers from accessing the content of data even if the hackers got digital access to these phones?

If better encryption is the answer to the vulnerabilities detailed in the segment, then that’s another reason to be deeply concerned by the proposed federal legislation by Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) that would require tech companies to break their own encryption upon court demand in order to provide data to law enforcement. If there’s a way in, as this 60 Minutes segment showed, hackers will inevitably find it.

To the show’s credit, it does take a moment to point out that there are people in the intelligence community that are very likely perfectly fine with the existence of the vulnerabilities shown during these experiments, because they help the government get information. That they also put everybody else at risk does not seem to be a concern to them.

Lesley Stahl did do a segment on the encryption debate back in March, speaking with Pavel Durov, inventor of encrypted app Telegram, designed after dealing with pressure and censorship from Russia and the Kremlin to censor online communication from anti-Putin activists. A transcript from that segment is here.

Watch last night’s 60 Minutes segment below the fold:

View More: Newsmakers News|60 Minutes News|Live News|More News Videos

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Crude Crumbles Back Into Red As Kuwait Output Returns To Normal

It appears the “excuse” for today’s panic-buying spree in crude – a refineries strike in Kuwait affecting supply – has just been demolished:

  • KUWAIT OIL CO. SAYS OUTPUT FROM NORTHERN FIELDS BACK TO NORMAL

Now what excuse will there be? Especially as Venezuela confirms production will not slow.

 

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Here Is Deutsche Bank’s Massive Historical Atlas Of Every Market Move Since 1900

Over the weekend, Deutsche Bank’s cheerful house bull, equity strategist David Bianco (not to be confused with DB’s brand new bear, chief economist Joe Lavorgna), released a note explaining why one should ignore everything that does not fit a bullish narrative, and explained that he expects the S&P to hit 2,500 by 2018 (with one warning: “We think the S&P 500 can reach 2500 before suffering a 20%+ bear market decline. However, the next bear market could erase all further gains from this cycle. This is a significant risk when EPS growth is slow and yet the PE is above average.”)

We won’t spend any time on any forecast that pretends to have visibility into what happens over two and a half years from now, but instead we found something else actually useful in his report: Deutsche Bank’s massive market atlas showing the “historical context” of virtually every move since 1900.

Please click for the full size version.

Source

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