Is the Quest to ‘Solve Death’ Selfishly Immoral?

AntiagingPillCharlieajaDreamstimeThe thanatophiles are out in the public square again arguing that the pursuit of radical life extension is immoral. One such is University of Pennsylvania bioethicist Ezekiel Emanuel who denounced in his review of three new books reporting on the search by various Silicon Valley moguls for technologies and treatments that could slow or even reverse aging. Recall that Emanuel is the man who at age 57 famously declared in 2014: “Seventy-five. That’s how long I want to live: 75 years.” Why? “By the time I reach 75, I will have lived a complete life,” he asserted. So why hanker for death? Emanuel argued:

Living too long is also a loss. It renders many of us, if not disabled, then faltering and declining, a state that may not be worse than death but is nonetheless deprived. It robs us of our creativity and ability to contribute to work, society, the world. It transforms how people experience us, relate to us, and, most important, remember us. We are no longer remembered as vibrant and engaged but as feeble, ineffectual, even pathetic.

Of course, that is exactly what aging does to us all. But if the Silicon Valley and other innovators succeed at slowing and then reversing aging, all of those losses would be eliminated. The point of aging research is not to make us older longer, but to make us younger longer. So what then Emanuel? In his book review Emanuel now declares, “One of the most disturbing aspects of this immortality mania: its utter selfishness.” Selfishness? Radical life extension would necessarily mean, he argues, less reproduction in order to keep world population in check. That would therefore end of the “possibility of creating new people with novel characteristics and perspectives. Life would become one long, boring rerun.”

Evidently, Emanuel believes that oldsters have a duty to die and get out of the way of the younger generations. If anti-aging treatments work, oldsters won’t be elderlyl and thus will not soak up social security and Medicare since they will be healthy enough to support themselves. And presumably technological progress will not halt, so it is reasonable to expect all sorts of biotech and digital enhancements that will strengthen physical bodies, sharpen mental acuity, and regulate emotional states. In other words, the perpetually young would be endowed with novel characteristics and perspectives. And in the unlikely event that Emanuel turns out to be right about eternal ennui, there is a solution: You can experience the thrill of dying simply by stopping your longevity treatments.

Emanuel is not along. For example, an article over at Wired asserts, “Silicon Valley Would Rather Cure Death Than Make Life Worth Living.” The article cites the recent data by Princeton researchers Anne Case and Angus Deaton that mortality rate for poor white Americans with a high school or less education is rising. Disconnected from community and work, many now succumb to drug overdoses, alcoholism, and suicide: basically dying of despair.

Instead of frittering away their talents and their money on the search for immortality, Wired wants Silicon Valley titans to devote their resources to solving the social and economic dysfunctions that are shortening the lives of their less fortunate fellow Americans. Of course, some vast tech fortunes are already being spent on programs aimed at creating better lives for the poor. Ultimately, Wired is posing a false choice. Progress in one area of human endeavor does not preclude progress in other areas. It is highly likely that whatever treatments stem from research on aging will ameliorate many different illnesses including those that afflict poor Americans.

For more background see my article, Eternal Youth For All.

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Despite Dip-Buying Panic, The Dow Has Not Seen Longer Losing Streak Than This Since 1978

Don't play…

 

The BTFD'ers were back early on, but once the S&P got within a tick of green, shortly after Europe closed, things stalled, only to ramp again in the last hour, pushing S&P into the green, but that was it…

 

It was all about crushing VIX (after tagging 15 overnight, the machines hammered it back to a 12 handle)

CNBC's Bob Pisani – "A very impressive rally" – except Bob we closed red.

Nasdaq is the only major index in the green still for March…

 

The Dow bounced perfectly off its 50DMA…

 

The Dow is down 8 days in a row – the longest losing streak since 2011 – if it hits 9, that will be the worst streak since 1978!!

 

Banks were battered…but bounced (Goldman is now down on 14 of the last 16 days) – this is the worst drop for Goldman since Jan 2016

 

Banks dipped red for the year, Tech leads and Energy is the big laggard…

 

March's great rotation from Goldman To safe-haven Snapchat…

 

Across asset classes the moves were similar – all inflected at the US Open – but net net – the dollar is lower, yields lower, stocks flat, and gold higher…

 

Gold remains 2017's big winner as financials dipped into the red YTD today…

 

Notably bond yields broke first, then stocks followed, recoupling shortly after the European close

 

Treasury yields were lower on the day, leaving all but 2Y yields lower on the year… 30Y <3.00%, 10Y <2.40%

 

Yen weakness ignited the rebound in the Dollar Index around the US Open…

 

Gold and Silver gained again (pushing the former into the green for March). Copper spiked but crude slipped lower…

 

While gold gained on the day, Bitcoin bounced back above $1000…

 

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The Cure For Trump-Related News Blues: New at Reason

Immediately after the election, there was a spate of reports about Clinton voters buying newspaper and magazine subscriptions as a way to keep an eye on Trump. Now, it looks like the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction—with the elite press, amusingly, offering readers advice on how to tune out.

It all amounts to a statement about journalism today, Ira Stoll writes. The press has gotten away from its traditional job of just telling readers what the news is. Its new, self-appointed role involves advising people how they should feel about the news and how to get away from it.

But in so doing, outlets disclose a certain set of assumptions about the ideological uniformity of their readerships, argues Stoll. After all, there may have been some Americans who could have used all this advice about dealing with news-related anxiety and depression back during the Obama administration. And there are plenty of Americans out there who aren’t depressed, unhappy, anxious, or unhappy about Trump’s election and policies at all. Perhaps one way to feel less worried about the news, Stoll suggests, might just be exposure to at least the remote possibility that policy shifts in the direction of the Republican agenda might actually be good for America and its citizens.

View this article.

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Having Co-Opted the Tea Party Nationwide, Trump Tries to Stamp out its Remnants in Congress

Have you seen the latest craze among Trump administration officials and their enablers in the Republican establishment? It’s called Pin the Blame for Ryancare on the House Freedom Caucus, and it starts right at the top:

This assessment of the famously stubborn, 29-member group is shared by an uncounted number of the their colleagues, and even one of their own: Rep. Ted Poe (R-Texas), who resigned from the caucus yesterday, explaining that, “Saying no is easy, leading is hard, but that is what we were elected to do.” Also in the screw-you-guys,-I’m-going-home camp is Rep. Austin Scott (R-Georgia):

As the debacle was taking shape Friday, you saw a lot of such with-us-or-against-us talk:

And it wasn’t just on talk-radio Twitter. The Wall Street Journal, in a withering post-debacle editorial, asserted that the Freedom Caucus “sabotaged”…its “best chance to reform government”:

[T]he result of their rule-or-ruin strategy will now be the ObamaCare status quo, and Mark Meadows (North Carolina), Jim Jordan (Ohio), Louie Gohmert (Texas) and the rest own all of its problems. Please spare everyone your future grievances about rising health spending or an ever-larger government.

The grand prize for cynicism goes to Senator Rand Paul, who campaigned against the bill while offering an alternative that hasn’t a prayer of passing.

Now, there are plenty of contrary takes (see Conn Carroll, Justin Amash, and Reihan Salam, for starters). But the betting money is that both the Trump administration and the GOP establishment it now sits atop will seek actively to marginalize the rebels and instead find common governing cause with centrist Democrats, particularly in the United States Senate. If true, this scenario would produce one of the greatest cognitive dissonances in modern political history, while setting the administration up for even more humiliation during its honeymoon phase. Trump the above-the-fray outsider is collaborating with dealmaking career insiders to sideline one of the only principled Beltway blocs, even before showing any ability to woo Democrats over to Trump’s anti-conservative agenda. It’s all shaping up to be a godawful mess.

In a terrific New York Times Magazine article over the weekend, Robert Draper captured the quick devolution of Planet Trump’s attitudes toward the House Freedom Caucus, and by extrapolation its Senate allies such as Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz:

Early this year, [House Majority Leader Kevin] McCarthy predicted to me that the new president would quickly subjugate the Freedom Caucus. “Trump is strong in their districts,” McCarthy told me. “There’s not a place for them to survive in this world.”

When we spoke on the morning of March 7, Trump assured me that he would not bully the Obamacare-replacement bill’s loudest Republican critics, like the Freedom Caucus chairman, Representative Mark Meadows, on Twitter: “No, I don’t think I’ll have to,” he said. “Mark Meadows is a great guy and a friend of mine. I don’t think he’d ever disappoint me, or the party. I think he’s great. No, I would never call him out on Twitter. Some of the others, too. I don’t think we’ll need to….”

But on March 21, in a meeting with the Freedom Caucus about the bill, Trump called out Meadows by name, saying, “I’m going to come after you, but I know I won’t have to, because I know you’ll vote ‘yes.’ ” Meadows remained a “no”

Never forget. ||| ReasonThe Draper piece makes clear that many of Trump’s post-Ryancare priorities will involve such deviations from modern conservative orthodoxy as raising tariffs, spending billions on infrastructure, and abandoning even the rhetorical pretense of taking on the fiscal unsustainability of old-age entitlements.

When I spoke with Trump, I ventured that, based on available evidence, it seemed as though conservatives probably shouldn’t hold their breath for the next four years expecting entitlement reform. Trump’s reply was immediate. “I think you’re right,” he said. In fact, Trump seemed much less animated by the subject of budget cuts than the subject of spending increases. “We’re also going to prime the pump,” he said. “You know what I mean by ‘prime the pump’? In order to get this” — the economy — “going, and going big league, and having the jobs coming in and the taxes that will be cut very substantially and the regulations that’ll be going, we’re going to have to prime the pump to some extent. In other words: Spend money to make a lot more money in the future. And that’ll happen.” A clearer elucidation of Keynesian liberalism could not have been delivered by Obama. […]

When I asked Trump if he was a fan of the border-adjustment tax, he replied: “I am. I’m the king of that.”

And to woo Democrats his way, Draper reported, Trump has offered preliminary support for expanding gun background checks, mandating greater benefits to miners, financing high-speed rail projects, and using the federal contracting process to punish companies that outsource jobs. Two bookended quotes from senior advisor Steve Bannon preview the new Trumpian bipartisanship:

“I think the Democrats are fundamentally afflicted with the inability to discuss and have an adult conversation about economics and jobs, because they’re too consumed by identity politics. And then the Republicans, it’s all this theoretical Cato Institute, Austrian economics, limited government — which just doesn’t have any depth to it. They’re not living in the real world.” […]

“The thing you need to know about Trump,” Bannon said, “is he doesn’t care about the Republican Party and he doesn’t care about the Democratic Party. He just wants to put some wins on the board for the country.”

But there are three serious structural obstacles to Trump effectively trading two dozen House libertarian-leaners for a half-dozen centrist Democrats in the Senate:

1) The administration needs the House Freedom Caucus to pass stuff like corporate tax reform, let alone the unpalatably steep agency cuts that Trump’s proposed budget relies on to maintain last year’s federal spending levels. (Reality check from Draper: “as a top House Republican staff member told me, ‘even the cabinet secretaries at the E.P.A. and Interior are saying these cuts aren’t going to happen. They’re going to protect their grant programs, their payments to states, their Superfunds. So how do you cut 31 percent of the E.P.A. out of the 5 percent that isn’t protected? And a bill that cuts all money for the N.E.A. will not pass. For Republicans in the West’ — states whose vast rural areas benefit disproportionately from N.E.A. grants — ‘that’s a re-election killer. The campaign commercials write themselves.'”)

2) There is no evidence yet that Democrats will collaborate with a president their base despises. Gallup’s latest poll shows Trump with just a 36 percent national approval rating, lower than either Barack Obama or Bill Clinton ever had. And his approval rating among Democrats has been hovering in the high single digits.

3) The same Ryancare bill whose Republican opponents Trumpworld wants to punish for disloyalty was almost hysterically unpopular, far more widely loathed than even the Obamacare mess it sought to supplant. There’s every reason to believe the HFC helped the Republican Party dodge a bullet, while also saving the country from a bad piece of legislation. As such, it’s within the realm of plausibility that the Freedom Caucus stands to gain, not lose, political support from outside Capitol Hill.

I mean. ||| Rebrn.comWhich leads to the greatest dissonance of all. For more than a year now, House Freedom Caucus pal (though not a member—he’s too independent for that!) Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky) has been telling a good and I think largely true shaggy dog story about how he thought his Tea Party-affiliated voters were attracted to limited-government notions, until he went to Iowa to campaign for Rand Paul and instead encountered a tsunami of TP support for Donald Trump. “I realized,” he said, “they weren’t voting for libertarian ideas—they were voting for the craziest son of a bitch in the race. And Donald Trump won best in class, as we had up until he came along.”

And how had the Paul/Massie/Lee/Cruz/Justin Amash class, and the movement they sprang out of, earned that crazy rep in the first place? By tackling head-on the sellout policies and corrupted personnel decisions of the GOP establishment. They were draining the swamp even before Donald Trump was getting into the birth-certificate forensics business. When I interviewed Massie and Amash in January 2016, just before their preferred candidate Rand Paul dropped out of the presidential race, both acknowledged that Trump was more successfully attracting voters who were disappointed that too many Tea Party picks had gone native in Washington. “They have sent some people here to Congress who said all the right things, they ran as Tea Party candidates, then they got up here and they voted for the omnibus bill, or voting for Speaker Boehner on their first day after pledging they wouldn’t vote for him,” Massie said. “And so what they’re looking for is somebody’s that’s not going to be controlled when they get here.”

Trump may still be beyond the control of mere mortals, but ever since bending the party apparatus to his will in July 2016, along the way discovering that the “principles” of such fiscal conservatives as Mike Pence are about as malleable as tin foil, he has created a paradox that borders on the delicious: The very establishment he once railed against for being power-hungry sellouts have now sold themselves out to Donald Trump in order to retain power. And now both sides have joined up in trying to stamp out the last remaining principled deviants, who show little outward sign of giving a rip. If you plan on well and truly killing the Tea Party, it turns out, you’re gonna need a bigger stake.

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Italian Officials Call For Investigation Of Soros-Supported NGO Migrant Fleet

Authored by William Craddick via Disobedient Media,

Italian authorities are calling for monitoring of the funding of an NGO fleet bussing migrants into the EU from the North African coast after a report released the European Border and Coast Guard Agency has determined that the members of the fleet are acting as accomplices to people smugglers and directly contributing to the risk of death migrants face when attempting to enter the EU.

The report from regulatory agency Frontex suggests that NGOs sponsoring  ships in the fleet are now acting as veritable accomplices to people smugglers due to their service which, in effect, provides a reliable shuttle service for migrants from North Africa to Italy. The fleet lowers smugglers' costs, as it all but eliminates the need to procure seaworthy vessels capable making a full voyage across the Mediterranean to the European coastline. Traffickers are also able to operate with much less risk of arrest by European law enforcement officers. Frontex specifically noted that traffickers have intentionally sought to alter their strategy, sending their vessels to ships run by the NGO fleet rather than the Italian and EU military.

On March 25th, 2017, Italian news source Il Giornale carried remarks from Carmelo Zuccaro, the chief prosecutor of Catania (Sicily) calling for monitoring of the funding behind the NGO groups engaged in operating the migrant fleet. He stated that "the facilitation of illegal immigration is a punishable offense regardless of the intention.” While it is not a crime to enter the waters of a foreign country and pick them migrants, NGOs are supposed to land them at the nearest port of call, which would have been somewhere along the North African coast instead of in Italy. The chief prosecutor also noted that Italy is investigating Islamic radicalization occurring in prisons and camps where immigrants are hired off the books.

Italy has for some months been reeling under the pressure of massive numbers of migrants who have been moving from North Africa into the southern states of the European Union. In December 2016, The Express cited comments made by Virginia Raggi, the mayor of Vatican City, stating that Rome was on the verge of a "war" between migrants and poor Italians. The wave of migrants has also caused issues in southern Italy, where the Sicilian Cosa Nostra has declared a "war on migrants" last year amid reports that the Italian mafia had begun fighting with North African crime gangs who entered the EU among migrant populations.

CCTV footage showing an Italian gang leader, Emanuele Rubino, retrieve a handgun (circled) before shooting Gambian Yusapha Susso in a turf war last year

In February 2016, Disobedient Media published research indicating that multiple ships operating in the fleet mentioned by Frontex are sponsored by NGO groups with financial ties to organizations run by George Soros and donors to Hillary Clinton.

Reports have also emerged citing a study by counter-extremism group Quilliam which states that ISIS now controls the human trafficking scene in North Africa and is actively recruiting from the migrant population. In addition to acting as de facto accomplices of human traffickers, the NGO's criticized by Frontex may also be contributing to the worsening terror situation in Europe though their actions.

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Paul Ryan “Begged On One Knee” For Obamacare Repeal Vote

In September 2008, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson reportedly begged House speaker Nancy Pelosi on one knee to support his bailout plan.

The day began with an agreement that Washington hoped would end the financial crisis that has gripped the nation. It dissolved into a verbal brawl in the Cabinet Room of the White House, urgent warnings from the president and pleas from a Treasury secretary who knelt before the House speaker and appealed for her support…

It Worked.

*  *  *

Nine years later, faced with a crisis of his own, Speaker Ryan reportedly got down on one knee to plead with Rep. Don Young of Alaska – the longest-serving Republican in Congress – to support the bill. 

He was unsuccessful…

As The Hill reports, the moments highlighted by the Post during the Republican conference negotiations show what a tough battle Ryan and his deputies faced in whipping the vote. But they also show the fierce support some offered to leadership — like freshman Rep. Brian Mast of Florida, who lost both legs in 2010 in Afghanistan and called on colleagues to unite behind the bill as he and his Army colleagues had done on the battlefield. 

At another point, a Republican shouted, “Burn the ships” to Majority Whip Steve Scalise, invoking the command a 16th century Spanish conquistador gave his crew when they landed in Mexico.

The message was clear, the Post said –- the Republicans felt there was no turning back.

The GOP was ultimately unable to coalesce around the party’s plan and Ryan pulled the bill from the floor Friday, when it was clear it did not have the votes to pass.

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Massachusetts Prepares to Vacate Nearly 24,000 Tainted Drug Convictions

Massachusetts prosecutors will move in mid-April to vacate nearly all of the roughly 24,000 drug convictions tainted by a single corrupt forensic lab chemist, The Boston Globe reported Saturday, marking the denouement of one of the largest drug lab scandals in U.S. history.

A Massachusetts prosecutor told the state’s Supreme Judicial Court last week that D.A.’s would seek to keep fewer than 1,000 of the 24,000 convictions tainted by drug lab chemist Annie Dookahn, who pled guilty in 2012 to falsifying test results in favor of law enforcement and tampering with evidence over a nine-year period starting in 2003.

“Without putting numbers on it, it’s in the ballpark that the court was looking for,” Robert J. Bender, a Middlesex County assistant district attorney, said during a March 16 hearing, according to Globe. “Hundreds of cases, not thousands of cases.”

Since Dookhan was convicted, the Massachusetts criminal justice system has been reeling under the number of so-called “Dookhan defendants” and how to ensure justice for all of them. Dookhan managed to taint an estimated one in six drug cases in Massachusetts between 2003 and 2012.

As I reported in January, the court declined to vacate the cases en masse, but ordered prosecutors to review and clear as many of the cases as they could:

The Massachusetts chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union was pressing the state’s high court to vacate the convictions en masse, arguing it would take 48 years to assign public defenders to each of the 24,483 defendants potentially harmed by the Dookhan’s dirty work.

The court declined to take such sweeping action, instead ordering state prosecutors to dismiss all cases within 90 days it would not or could not reprosecute if given a new trial. In addition, it ordered clear notifications to be sent to remaining defendants informing them of their right to challenge their convictions.

In a statement, Matt Segal, legal director of the ACLU of Massachusetts said Wednesday’s ruling “is a major victory for justice, fairness, and tens of thousands of people in the Commonwealth who were wrongfully convicted of drug offenses.”

“The court has called on prosecutors to dismiss the drug charges against most of the Dookhan defendants and to provide meaningful notice to the remaining defendants, all by fixed deadlines,” Segal said. “It is now time for the DAs to step up and finally allow Massachusetts to turn the page on the worst drug lab scandal in our nation’s history, especially because the Amherst drug lab scandal involving chemist Sonja Farak has called into question thousands more drug convictions.”

The list of cases is due from county prosecutors on April 18.

Dookhan’s case is among the largest, but far from the only forensics scandal that potentially ruined the lives of thousands of criminal defendants. Just last month in Florida, the Orange County State Attorney’s Office sent letters to 2,600 area defense attorneys, notifying them that their clients’ cases may have been compromised by the work of a fingerprint expert.

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How To Beat Warren Buffett Working Just 40 Days A Year

Want to beat Warren Buffett’s investment returns? Don’t want to spend a lot of time working at it? Bloomberg's macro strategist Cameron Crise has just the investment process for you…

Last week I wrote about a simple model that is surprisingly effective at profiting from the rebalancing tendencies of passive investors. This in turn brought to mind another well-known instance of behavioral herding that has led to consistent profits — the so-called “pre-FOMC drift,” wherein U.S. equities tend to rally just before and just after FOMC meetings.

What would happen if we combined the rebalancing model with a strategy designed to profit from the pre-FOMC drift?  I assessed the performance of going long the S&P 500 on the close two days before each FOMC meeting and exiting the trade on the close of each FOMC day. In measuring the historical performance of such a model, it’s important that we don’t include any forward-looking information. Some of the best daily S&P 500 returns have come on days featuring intra-meeting easings. Alas, we have to exclude them from our study given our inability to pre-position for them.

Regardless, the performance of the combined model is still pretty fantastic. Since 1994, it has generated an annual return of 8.6% with a volatility of 9.3%. That ratio (0.92) trounces the equivalent for a passive investment in the S&P 500, including dividends (0.69). Not too shabby for 40 days of work per year (two days a month for the rebalancing model plus 2 days for each of the eight annual Fed meetings)! Given that the rebalancing model in particular is a mean-reversion strategy, it stands to reason that it should be a diversifier against a standard passive portfolio. What happens if we combine a passive allocation in the S&P with an overlay of the rebalancing and Fed strategies?

It turns out that the answer is “lots of good things.” Combining the behavioral overlay with a passive investment boosts the average annual return of an SPX long from 10.1% to 18.9% over the last 23 years.

The realized vol of this strategy is higher, but only modestly so; the annualized volatility of the portfolio goes from 14.7% to 16.9%. Notching an extra 8.8% return for an increased vol of just 2.2% is a pretty effective use of a risk budget!

The chart shown above plots the cumulative returns of a passive investment in the S&P 500, a passive investment overlaid with the monthly rebalancing model, and a passive investment overlaid with both the rebalance and Fed models. It also shows the cumulative returns of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway over the same time frame. Not only does the passive strategy with behavioral overlay trounce the passive strategy by itself (outperforming in 19 of the 23 years modeled), it also beats Berkshire (while generating substantially less volatility). While the combined model only beats Buffett about half of the time, the most notable successes have come in the last 10-15 years.

Obviously there is no guarantee that these behavioral overlays can deliver the same sort of outperformance in the future as they have in recent years. There is often a sort of “Heisenberg principle” at work, wherein we alter the performance of a market phenomenon merely by observing it. Moreover, the results above do not account for real-world considerations such as transaction costs, etc. (Though those should be modest if futures are employed to implement the behavioral strategy.)

Nevertheless, the results portrayed above do suggest that there remains significant alpha to be had from mining the behavioral tendencies of market participants. Warren Buffett likes to sing the praises of Graham and Dodd, but they never won the Nobel Prize for Economics; Kahneman and Tversky did. And if you can trounce both passive investors and Warren Buffett by trading just 40 days a year, that offers plenty of time to research the next market-beating anomaly before the Street catches up.

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The Cracks in the GOP Start Showing

In theory, no one should be surprised that it was health care that opened the first big crack in the Trumptime GOP. It’s been obvious for ages that the Republicans didn’t have any kind of consensus on how to fulfill their promise of replacing the Affordable Care Act. If you put that first on the legislative agenda, of course it’s where the splits are going to start showing.

Yet it still feels weird. There are issues—immigration, foreign policy—where the Republicans have clear public divisions. Health care has not traditionally been one of those topics. Like abortion, it brought the party together: Everyone could join hands and damn Obamacare. So the GOP hasn’t just been fractured by something big; it’s been fractured by something that seemed central to its self-identity.

The longer the spotlight lingers on health care, the stranger the ensuing debate is going to seem. Already this month we’ve had one prominent Republican (and Trump crony), Newsmax chief Christopher Ruddy, calling for a Medicaid expansion plan that sure sounds a lot like the public option. Now, I certainly wouldn’t bet on that becoming the next big Republican proposal. (I wouldn’t bet on the next big Republican proposal having much to do with health care at all.) But I won’t be surprised if we see that idea or others like it getting more traction within the party. A sizable chunk of the base is already open to such notions. (In a Gallup poll last May, 41 percent of Republicans said they’d favor replacing the Affordable Care Act with a federally funded system.) There are ways to frame the proposal that might make it seem like less of an odd fit with the party’s pro-market rhetoric. (Ruddy’s column takes care to point out that the status quo isn’t a free market. He’s right about that, though his solution isn’t exactly a free market either.) And it’s not as though the party has never embraced a health entitlement before. The last Republican president gave us Medicare Part D, and the last Republican presidential nominee accused Obama of cutting Medicare.

A lot of Republicans will hate the idea, of course. But my point here isn’t that I think the GOP is about to move to the left of Obama on health policy. It’s that the continents are drifting, and you really don’t know where everyone will be standing in a few years. Washington may be dominated by one political party right now, but there’s a bunch of parties within that party and we’re just starting to see the battles between them.

Related:The meaning of ‘fundamentally conservative’ and ‘fundamentally liberal’ is extremely unstable.”

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Questions Swirl Over Devin Nunes’ Mystery White House Visit

The mystery surrounding President Donald Trump’s claim that he was wiretapped by Barack Obama during the 2016 election campaign deepened on Monday, when it was revealed that House Intel Committee Chair Devin Nunes was on the White House grounds where he reviewed classified information the day before he announced he had seen intelligence that showed members of President Trump’s transition team had been caught up in surveillance operations.

U.S. Representative Devin Nunes, who has been embroiled in a firestorm of controversy over the past week, visited the White House the night before announcing on Wednesday that he had information that indicated some Trump associates may have been subjected to some level of intelligence activity before Trump took office on Jan. 20. According to a Daily Beast report, Nunes “went off the grid” that night to meet a source and view dozens of intelligence reports, including accounts of meetings involving President Donald Trump’s advisers.

Nunes admitted he was on White House grounds, but not in the White House itself, for meetings “to confirm what I already knew,” and he noted no one in the White House knew he was there. Nunes then declined to comment further because he didn’t want to “compromise sources and methods.”

Then it gets weirder.

As Bloomberg’s Eli Lake adds, “CNN is reporting that Nunes had in fact slipped off to the White House grounds last Tuesday to view the documents. And then on Wednesday, after briefing reporters on what he had found in those intelligence reports, he went back to the White House to inform the president.”

One question that has emerged since the details of Nunes’ visit were revealed, is why would the Republican Intel Committee Chair need to brief the president on documents he viewed at a facility on White House grounds? The White House directed questions about the episode to Nunes.  “We have been made aware through public reports that Chairman Nunes confirmed he was on the White House grounds on Tuesday and any questions concerning his meeting should be directed to the Chairman,” the White House said.

In an interview Monday, Nunes told Lake that he ended up meeting his source on the White House grounds because it was the most convenient secure location with a computer connected to the system that included the reports, which are only distributed within the executive branch. “We don’t have networked access to these kinds of reports in Congress,” Nunes said. He added that his source was not a White House staffer and was an intelligence official. 

Nunes, it should be said, has a history of cultivating independent sources inside the intelligence community. He made contact, for example, with the U.S. intelligence contractors who ended up saving most of the Americans stuck in the Benghazi outpost when it was attacked on Sept. 11, 2012. More recently, Nunes has reached out to his network of whistleblowers to learn about pressure inside the military’s Central Command on analysts to write positive reports on the U.S. campaign against the Islamic State.

 

In this case, Nunes had been hearing for more than a month about intelligence reports that included details on the Trump transition team, and had been trying to view them himself. He told me that when he finally saw the documents last Tuesday evening, he made sure to copy down their identifying numbers so he could request access to them formally for the rest of the committee.

Confirming Lake’s account, Nunes spokesman Jack Langer said in a statement that Nunes “met with his source at the White House grounds in order to have proximity to a secure location where he could view the information provided by the source.”

As Reuters  adds, it was the latest twist in a saga that began on March 4 when Trump said on Twitter that he “just found out that Obama had my ‘wires tapped’ in Trump Tower just before the victory.” FBI Director James Comey told Congress last Monday he had seen no evidence to support the claim. Trump’s mention of wiretapping drew attention away from U.S. intelligence agencies having said that Russia tried to help Trump in the election against Democrat Hillary Clinton by hacking leading Democrats and spreading disinformation. Moscow denies any such activities. Trump has also dismissed them.

Nunes told reporters on Wednesday that he had briefed Trump “on the concerns I had about incidental collection and how it relates to President-elect Trump and his transition team and the concerns that I have.” After an uproar over the allegations and the fact that he briefed Trump first before members of his own committee, Nunes apologized on Thursday for the way he handled the information. A congressional source said congressional investigators have questioned agencies directly to try to find out what intelligence reports and intercepts Nunes is referring to, but that as of Monday the agencies were still saying they did not know what Nunes was talking about.

Earlier on Monday, the Washington Post reported that Nunes was on his way to an event late Tuesday when he left his staff and went to review classified intelligence files brought to his attention by his source, whom he has not identified.

* * *

Meanwhile, the White House has seized on Nunes’ remarks to bolster Trump’s unproven assertion that Obama wiretapped his campaign headquarters in Manhattan’s Trump Tower. Nunes and some other Republicans have focused much of their concern over the investigation about the possibility that some Americans’ names have been improperly “unmasked” and released to the public in leaks about the investigation of whether Trump’s campaign colluded with Moscow. Nunes spokesman Langer cited concerns about the exposure of citizens’ names in his statement.

“The chairman is extremely concerned by the possible improper unmasking of names of U.S. citizens, and he began looking into this issue even before President Trump tweeted his assertion that Trump Tower had been wiretapped,” Langer said.

Democrats have questioned, given his actions, whether he can remain independent during the Intelligence Committee’s own investigation of Russian meddling.

It remains unknown who was Nunes’ source and whether he was doing the White House’s bidding in saying the transition team has been surveilled. Nunes said last week that the surveillance was not related to Russia and that the Trump officials had been caught up in legal snooping.

Previously, CNN reported that Nunes was with a staff member at the White House when he reviewed the intelligence. A spokesman said the intelligence could not have been taken to the House.

“The information comprised executive branch documents that have not been provided to Congress,” a Nunes spokesman said. “Because of classification rules, the source could not simply put the documents in a backpack and walk them over to the House Intelligence Committee space. The White House grounds was the best location to safeguard the proper chain of custody and classification of these documents, so the Chairman could view them in a legal way.”

* * *

Going back to Lake, the Bloomberg reporter said that “Nunes told me these reports were sent to the Obama White House among other executive branch agencies. Nunes until now had only said the reports he viewed were widely distributed inside the government. “The reports included details about the Trump transition, meetings of Trump and senior advisers, they were distributed throughout the intelligence community and to the White House,” Nunes said. “In some cases, there was additional unmasking of Trump transition team officials.”

As Lake concludes, “this is suggestive, though not yet proof, that White House officials privy to the Russia investigation wanted keep tabs on Trump and his advisers in the period after the election and before his inauguration. It also fits together with other facts in this story as well. For example, on March 1, the New York Times reported that Obama White House officials sought to preserve intelligence in the final days and weeks of his presidency on Team Trump’s connections to Russia and Russia’s campaign to influence the election. Though Nunes says the reports he viewed had nothing to do with Russia.”

The implications are two-fold as per Lake:

The good news is that we will soon get a second and third opinion. Nunes told me that he expects that his committee’s members, including Democrats, will be able to read these documents themselves at secure locations outside of Congress as soon as this week.

 

If it turns out that intelligence about the Trump transition was included in dozens of reports that were sent to the White House, then the House Intelligence Committee really has two investigations. The first is of course a probe into how the Russian state meddled in the election and whether it did so with the aid of Trump’s associates or campaign. The second is about whether the Obama White House inappropriately spied on Trump and his advisers during the transition to power.

While incomplete information and partisan innuendo continues to swirl, both sides are accusing each other of conducting a misdirection campaign meant to cover up either Trump’s links to Russia, or Obama’s surveillance of Trump for reasons still unknown. If Lake is correct, the mystery over Nunes’ White House visit will soon be resolved. As to whether Trump is an alleged puppet of Putin, or if Obama was actively spying on Trump, sadly that particular inquiry is only just starting.

via http://ift.tt/2nYXTR4 Tyler Durden