Venezuelan Police Arrest Eight Bitcoin Miners in Two Weeks, and the Country’s Leading Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Operations

Venezuelan police have arrested eight bitcoin miners in the last two week, and the country’s leading bitcoin exchange announced yesterday that it’s suspending operations because its bank account was revoked. The recent spate of incidents is causing members of the country’s bitcoin community to take new measures to conceal their activities.

Yesterday the Policía Nacional Bolivariana (PNB) announced that two men identified as Adan Erick Tapia Salas, 37, and Edwald Antonio Tapia Salas, 31, were arrested in Caracas. PNB officers caught the two men through the online marketplace MercadoLibre, where they were attempting to sell bitcoin mining equipment. Bitcoin mining and the buying and selling of computer equipment isn’t illegal in Venezuela, and it’s not clear if the authorities have filed formal charges in the case.

In a separate incident, the PNB raided a warehouse in the city of Valencia last Friday with 11,000 bitcoin mining computers. They arrested Eusebio Gómez Henríquez, 51, and Andrés Alejandro Carrero Martínez, 35, who were accused of cybercrime, financing terrorism, stealing electricity, and exchange fraud.

An official statement linked the two men to a criminal network operating from PolanTwo bitcoin miners arrested in Venezuela ||| Policía Nacional Bolivariana (PNB)d. As the Venezuelan bitcoin news site CriptoNoticias reports, apparently the basis for this claim is that many of the discovered mining computers were purchased from a Polish seller, who advertised them through the online forum BitcoinTalk in August of 2015.

One of the arrested miners, Andrés Carrero, attended Miami Dade College and worked on and off in commercial real estate sales in the Miami area for over a decade before “disappearing about a year ago,” according to the leasing manager at his former company. Carrero also ran a company called North American Merchant Services headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida, which offered foreigners the opportunity to set up mining computers in his operations center in exchange for a revenue split.

In yet another incident, agents from the Cuerpo de Investigaciones Científicas Penales y Criminalisticas (CICPC) arrested four bitcoin miners in the town of Charallave on January 25.

The discovery of the massive mining facility in Valencia is causing a backlash that’s making it harder for Venezuelans to exchange bitcoins for local currency. SurBitcoin, the country’s leading exchange, announced yesterday that its bank account was being revoked and that users should withdraw their money from the service immediately to avoid losing funds. The company says it expects to be operating again in “approximately two weeks.” In the meantime, it encouraged customers to use the peer-to-peer trading site LocalBitcoins.

Seized warehouse with 11,000 bitcoin miners in Venezuela ||| Policía Nacional Bolivariana (PNB)Rodrigo Souza, the founder and CEO of the company that runs SurBitcoin’s exchange platform, attributed the temporary closure to the recent arrests in Valencia. “When it was found that there were 11,000 mining computers consuming the energy to power a whole town at a time when there are severe electricity shortages, it triggered a reaction,” he said. “We were not contacted by the government, but our bank is revoking our account because it doesn’t want to be involved. We are currently reaching out to other banking partners.”

Prior to January 25, Venezuela’s only known bitcoin-related arrests occurred in March of 2016, when three men were detained in separate incidents by the Servicio Bolivariano de Inteligencia Nacional (SEBIN). (They’ve all since been released.) With the recent incidents, there are now three separate law enforcement agencies that have arrested bitcoin miners in Venezuela.

Bitcoin is proving to be a potentially life-saving technology in a country experiencing severe shortages of food and medicine. Many Venezuelans are using the internet-based currency to circumvent the country’s currency countrols and import essential goods, including groceries and pharmaceuticals. Bitcoin also provides a way for Venezuelans living abroad to send money home to their relatives.

Bitcoin mining, an energy-intensive process in which computers solve complex equations and get rewarded in newly minted currency, is unusually profitable in Venezuela because electricity is heavily subsidized by the socialist government.

As I argued in a January 2017 feature story, bitcoin mining in Venezuela is turning “socialism against itself.”

For more on the impact cryptocurrency is having in this crumbling South American nation, read “The Secret, Dangerous World of Venezuelan Bitcoin Mining” from our January 2017 issue.

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The US Dollar Bulls Are Falling for a DANGEROUS Trap…

As we have repeatedly warned, anyone who is betting on the Trump Presidency unleashing a massive $USD bull market in the near future is going to get taken to the cleaners.

This has already begun…

One of the single most dangerous traps for traders to avoid is a “False Breakout.”

False breakouts are moves in which an asset “breaks out” of a formation, leading many to believe that the move is legitimate… then suddenly KA-BLAM, the move reverses violently.

See the $USD today. This looks more and more like a false breakout, which means YES, the $USD is going to sub’90s if not lower within 12 months.

Those who believe Trump wants the $USD above 100 are not paying attention. Similarly, those who believe that the Fed can and will raise rates three times in 2017 are missing the big picture.

NEITHER OF THOSE IS GOING TO HAPPEN. And if you’re investing based on them, you’re in for a LOT of pain.

If you’re looking to profit from the REAL impact Trump’s Presidency will have on the market (and the massive opportunities this situation presents), we’ve put together a Special Investment Report outlining three investment strategies that will produce major returns as a result of Trump’s economic policies.

It’s titled How to Profit From the Trump Trade and we are giving away just 100 copies for free.

To pick up your copy, swing by

http://ift.tt/2ktrX6e

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

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Wall Street Responds To Today’s Jobs Report

Following today’s jobs report, the market’s reaction to the unexpectedly strong January payrolls visualized in the charts below, is straightforward: the disappointing wage growth is an indication that the Fed may not hike rates for quite a bit longer than expected, and will likely will be forced to reduce its rate hike expectations from 3 to 2 (in line with the market) or fewer if wage growth continue to stagnate.

Sure enough, Wall Street’s strategists agree. As the following compilation of reactions shows, the prevailing reaction to today’s report is that while January job gains beat expectations, slower wage growth and disappointing underemployment figures help temper expectations for a near-term Fed hike.

Some examples, courtesy of Bloomberg:

TD (Mark McCormick)

  • Jobs number is sweet spot for risk markets; growth is holding up with little impetus to nudge the Fed into action next month
  • A softer read on wages and uncertainty over the economic agenda probably keeps USD sidelined for a bit longer
  • This scenario favors continued momentum in some of the growth-sensitive currencies; could see the rallies in AUD, NZD and even NOK persist near-term

BofA (Michelle Meyer)

  • Investors were setting up for a higher number given upside surprise in ADP on Wednesday; however, this was offset by increase in unemployment and softness in wages
  • Report suggests labor market might not be as tight as previously believed
  • Likelihood of the Fed hiking in March is fairly low and jobs report consistent with that
  • BofA expects one Fed rate increase this year, in September, with risk of two rate hikes

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (Chris Rupkey)

  • January employment report “strikes a blow” in hopes for a faster pace of rate hikes from “slow and steady” Fed
  • “‘Big jobs today, but what about tomorrow’ will be the concern from Fed officials”
  • Fed will be unlikely to act before there’s more certainty in Trump policies that could boost growth, make easier monetary conditions from Fed less necessary

Societe Generale (Stephen Gallagher and Omair Sharif)

  • Jobs report shows “no additional pressure on the Fed to move beyond its indications of gradual rate hikes”
  • “Evidence on labor market tightness abated in January”

Goldman Sachs (led by Jan Hatzius)

  • Report “appears consistent with healthy economic growth, but only moderate pressure on labor resources”
  • Reduces odds of a rate hike in March to 15% from 35%
  • Maintains call for 3 rate increases this year, in June, September and December

CIBC (Avery Shenfeld, note)

  • Only sore spot in jobs report was avg hourly earnings
  • “Although the annual rate of wage inflation was likely to decelerate a couple of ticks, the fall from the revised 2.8% to 2.5% will be seen as a counterbalance to the stronger headline payroll number”

Janus Capital (Bill Gross)

  • “Schizophrenic report” doesn’t alleviate skepticism about 3-4 percent growth promised by Trump administration
  • “I think we’re stuck in a 2% real GDP world”
  • While slow wage growth may be good for corporate profits, for consumers, “if their money is only growing at 2.5%, that’s a slow-growth economy”

Market Securities (Christophe Barraud)

  • January payrolls report “looks somehow disappointing,” will create uncertainty among policy makers that wage pressures are materializing and full employment is close
  • Could damp expectations for tighter policy
  • Slowing wage growth suggests both personal income and spending were weak in January
    Underemployment results disappointed, while number of people working part-time increased by 242k; numbers don’t confirm that labor slack diminished

Marketfield Asset Management (Michael Shaoul)

  • January jobs report “noisy” yet kept prior trends intact
  • Weaker avg hourly earnings “greeted with some relief since it reduces the pressure on the FOMC to act in early part of 2017”
  • Avg hourly earnings “is a lousy data series, but we accept it is one that the FOMC will follow when setting policy”

BNY Mellon (Marvin Loh)

  • Tempered Fed expectations are biggest market takeaway from report, as it signals existence of more slack in labor market than headline unemployment rate would suggest
  • “Any trough and subsequent increase in the participation rate would indicate continued jobs growth with limited wage pressure, a possible holy grail for corporate America”
  • After report, anyone who thought Fed might raise rates in March will likely move their forecast to June

ING (James Knightley)

  • Wages were a ‘big miss’’ but this likely is a “temporary slowdown with strong employment numbers ensuring that the trend is for faster wage growth in the months ahead”
  • ING reiterates forecast for March Fed rate hike; expects that to be followed by another increase in 3Q
  • “GDP growth on an upward trend”
  • “Inflation figures looking consistent with the Fed’s medium term aspirations” so case for March hike “remains strong”

SouthBay (Andrew Zatlin)

  • January data did not capture minimum wage hikes, which will show up in February, and that helped suppress wage inflation; expect a bigger jump next month
  • If assumption is correct, the current environment of a patient Fed with slower and more gradual rate hikes could flip after next month’s jobs data

Evercore (Krishna Guha)

  • January NFP report creates “little need for the Fed to pull forward the next rate hike to March”
  • A move by May “is slightly more likely than not,” given strength in hiring
  • Combination of strong employment growth with more supply to keep Fed “at bay” for now, “is perfect for U.S. equities”

Prestige Economics (Jason Schenker)

  • Continued job creation backs hawkish Fed
  • “A March Fed rate hike is a lock” after supportive jobs report and slightly stronger language regarding inflation in the Fed statement this week
  • “We have been expecting a March rate hike, and only a shocking turn of policy or major upheaval in financial markets would derail that expectation”
  • Sees upside risks for USD before Fed’s March meeting

Source: Bloomberg

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In Bowling Green ‘Massacre,’ FBI Agents Foiled an FBI Terror Plot

Fresh off of making-up a massacre on national television, Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway has been trying to rationalize her rhetoric—a rant about how the media didn’t cover Obama’s refugee ban after the “Bowling Green Massacre” of 2011—by claiming that what she meant to say was “Bowling Green terrorists.” While there may not have been a terrorist “massacre”—or any terrorist violence at all—in Bowling Green, Kentucky, there was a terrorist plot uncovered, Conway noted Friday on Twitter, quickly shifting the spotlight back to the supposed danger posed by Islamic refugees.

Conway is correct about a few things: there were two Bowling Green men arrested for terrorism; they were Iraqis who had come to the U.S. through a refugee resettlement program; and their story did prompt then-President Obama to slow or suspend Iraqi-refugee immigration for around six months. But there are a few other key things to keep in mind about this Bowling Green “terrorist plot”…

1. It was concocted entirely by the FBI.

The young men involved, Waad Ramadan Alwan and Mohanad Shareef Hammadi, had come to the U.S. in 2009 as part of a program for displaced Iraqis. Once settled in Kentucky, the men were solicited by undercover FBI agents to help them send money and weapons to militants back in Iraq.

In August 2010, a confidential FBI informant first met with Alwan and “represented to Alwan that he was working with a group to ship money and weapons to Mujahadeen in Iraq,” according to an FBI statement. From that fall through the following spring, the FBI informant invited Alwan to participate in 10 operations to send weapons or money to Iraq. Hammadi joined in the efforts, recruited by Alwan, in January 2011. Throughout the operations, the FBI supplied all materials and took care of all logistics for the imaginary operation, with Alwan and Hammadi merely offering manpower.

Despite the FBI’s then-assertion that Alwan and Hammadi were just the tip of the terrorist-cell iceberg in small-town Kentucky, the agency never found additional terrorist agents in the area.

2. It did not involve plans to attack in the U.S.

Back in Iraq, Alwan and Hammadi had been involved efforts to fight off invading U.S. soldiers during the early days of the Iraq war, according to what they told undercover officials. But throughout their interactions with undercover FBI agents in 2010 and 2011, Alwan and Hammadi never discussed plans to attack anyone or cause destruction on U.S. soil. And while they were found guilty of attempting to provide material support to al Queda militants back in Iraq, the men never indicated that they were personally in contact with any militants, attempted to procure weapons for such individuals, or attempted to provide any of their own money to such individuals. Rather, they showed up when and where the FBI informant told them to and helped physically load decoy supplies into whatever they were allegedly being shipped from. (For more on the FBI’s history of manufacturing terrorists, see here.)

3. It’s in rare company.

According to the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, only three of the 784,000 refugees cleared for U.S. resettlement since 2001—the two Bowling Green men and a male refugee from Uzbekistan—have been arrested for terrorism or plotting terrorist acts. The Uzbek man, Fazliddin Kurbanov, had come here with his parents as Christian refugees who were being persecuted for their religion in Uzbekistan. But once in the U.S. for a few years, Kurbanov converted to Islam. He was convicted in 2015 for possessing unregistered explosives and attempting to provide money and computer support to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Kurbanov was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison. Hammadi was sentenced to life in prison, and Alwan to 40 years.

As Ronald Bailey noted here in 2015, there have been several other terrorism arrests attributed to refugees, such as the Tsarnaev brothers, better known as the Boston Marathon bombers. But the Tsarnaev brothers weren’t admitted to the U.S. as refugees but as the minor children of adults granted asylum. “The distinction between refugees and asylees is not just a legal technicality,” explains Bailey. “Aslyees are self-selected—they show up at or within the border and apply for asylum. As long as the asylum application is pending, they cannot be thrown out of the country. In contrast, refugees are generally designated as such by U.N. officials, and they usually live in refugee camps. They go through a vetting process that takes up to two or three years.”

There may be slightly more rogue refugees than the Migration Policy Institute estimates. There was also Mohamed Osman Mohamud, “the would-be Portland Christmas bomber” of 2010, who came to the U.S. as a 5-year-old with parents who were either refugees or asylees; he was turned in to the FBI by his father. And Ramiz and Sedina Hodzic, two of six Bosnian immigrants indicted in 2015 for allegedly sending money to ISIS, wre also admitted as refugees when they were children. Yet as Bailey notes, Kurbanov, Mohamud, and the Hodzics were all radicalized after coming to America. “None of these people, be they refugees or anything else, were sleeper agents who intentionally remained inactive for a long period, established a secure position, and then struck. None, in other words, fit the scenario being bandied about to justify keeping the Syrians out.”

4. It’s been used to support anti-refugee sentiment ever since.

Following news of Alwan and Hammadi’s arrests, the U.S. State Department slowed the processing of Iraqi refugee visa applications to a near-halt for several months. Since then, this “Bowling Green terror plot” has resurfaced several times when politically convenient. In 2015, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) used it as fodder for why we needed to block Obama from allowing in additional Syrian refugees. Now it’s being used by the Trump administration to justify the president’s recent executive order temporary banning immigration from seven countries.

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Thomas Pynchon, Sitcom Star

Now that television is a certified High Art and Americans binge-watch densely woven intertextual narratives for fun, I wouldn’t be surprised if you told me tomorrow that Netflix is releasing a 30-part adaptation of Gravity’s Rainbow with an option for a second season. But when I settled in one Tuesday evening in 1993 to watch The John Larroquette Show, a short-lived sitcom about a recovering alcoholic managing a St. Louis bus depot, TV was a medium with more modest ambitions. So I was kind of surprised when, a couple minutes into the episode, it launched into an extended Thomas Pynchon joke. There were places I expected to see references to Pynchon’s paranoid postmodern novels, but this was not one of them.

The full episode, called “Newcomer,” doesn’t seem to be online. (Or rather, it’s online only in that cropped-and-slowed-down format that YouTubers use to avoid the copyright police.) But you can see that scene, and a follow-up sequence near the end of the episode, in the clip below. Pynchon himself signed off on the dialogue (which is a little “racially charged,” as they say), and there are rumors that the famously camera-shy writer slipped onscreen as an extra. Probably false rumors, but don’t let that stop you from searching for him as you enjoy a TV moment so strange that for years I thought I might have dreamed it:

Bonus links: Pynchon later had two cameos on The Simpsons. Watch ’em here and here. For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here.

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Where The January Jobs Were

While in recent months, we had documented that job growth was mostly observed in lower, or minimum-wage paying, jobs, in January, when as the BLS earlier reported the US added some 227K jobs, the increase was uniform across virtually all job sectors, with only Government and Transportation and Warehousing jobs declining by 10,000 and 4,000, respectively. All other sectors saw an increase in employees.

The breakdown is as follows:

  • Retail jobs rose by 46,000 in January, and by 229,000 in 2016. Three industries added jobs in January–clothing and clothing accessories stores (+18,000), electronics and appliance stores (+8,000), and furniture and home furnishings stores (+6,000). We find this surprising in light of the mass layoff announcements reported by retailers in recent months.
  • Construction jobs rose by 36,000. Residential building added 9,000 jobs over the month, while residential specialty trade contractors added +11,000. Over the past 12 months, the US has added 170,000 jobs.
  • Financial jobs rose by 32,000 jobs in January, with gains in real estate (+10,000), insurance carriers and related activities (+9,000), and credit intermediation and related activities (+9,000). Financial activities added an average of 15,000 jobs per month in 2016.
  • Employment in professional and technical services rose by 23,000, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016. Over the month, job gains occurred in computer systems design and related services (+13,000).
  • Food services and drinking places jobs – i.e., waiters and bartenders – continued to trend up in January (+30,000). This industry added 286,000 jobs over the past 12 months, and continues to
  • Health care jobs added another +18,000 positions, following a gain of 41,000 in December. The industry has added 374,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, showed little change over the month.

And visually:

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US Unleashes New Sanctions On Iran; Russia Says “Counter-Productive”

The U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Iran as President Donald Trump seeks to punish Tehran for its ballistic missile program after warning the Islamic Republic that it is “playing with fire." As Bloomberg reports, the Treasury Department published a list of 13 individuals and 12 entities facing new restrictions, some for contributing to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and others for links to terrorism.

RIA is reporting that Russian foreign ministry officials have remarked that "sanctions against Iran are counter-productive."

The following individuals have been added to OFAC's SDN List:

  • AL-HAJJ, Yahya (a.k.a. AL-HAJ, Yahya; a.k.a. AL-HAJ, Yehia Issa Mohamad); DOB 23 May 1959; POB Aramta, Lebanon; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport RL 2544590 (Lebanon) issued 07 Jun 2013 expires 07 Jun 2018 (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • ASGHARZADEH, Abdollah; DOB 16 Sep 1968; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • DARIAN, Tenny (a.k.a. SHAKHDARIAN, Tenny); DOB 06 Sep 1979; POB Tehran, Iran; citizen Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport B23545963 expires 05 Mar 2017 (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • EBRAHIMI, Hasan Dehghan (a.k.a. IBRAHIMI, Hasan Dahqan); DOB 21 Mar 1961; POB Dezfool, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport U19707756 (Iran) issued 12 May 2011 expires 11 May 2016 (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • FARHAT, Muhammad 'Abd-al-Amir (a.k.a. FARHAT, Mohammad; a.k.a. FARHAT, Mohammad Abdul Amir); DOB 23 Aug 1969; POB Kuwait; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport RL 2325452 (Lebanon) expires 31 Jul 2017 (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • MAGHAM, Mohammad; DOB 16 Sep 1970; nationality Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport H22452336 (Iran) (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • ROSTAMIAN, Kambiz, Villa No 13, Cluster 31 Juemierah Islands, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; DOB 27 Aug 1960; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport RE0003026 (Saint Kitts and Nevis); alt. Passport I17217816 (Iran) (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • SHARIFI, Ali (a.k.a. SALEHI, Ali); DOB 23 Feb 1966; POB Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Gender Male; Passport M31335740 (Iran); alt. Passport U30608043 (Iran) (individual) [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • XIANHUA, Qin (a.k.a. QIN, Jack; a.k.a. XIANHUA, Jack); DOB 08 Jan 1979; citizen China; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions; Passport E31457650 expires 21 Oct 2023 (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • YUE, Richard (a.k.a. YAODONG, Yue); DOB 22 May 1974; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • ZAHEDI, Mostafa (a.k.a. KHAZE, Karim; a.k.a. LIU, Jhon; a.k.a. OMAR, Asem; a.k.a. "IBRAHIM, Mohammad"; a.k.a. "IBRAHIM, Mohammed"); DOB 29 Jun 1978; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • ZARGARI, Ghodrat (a.k.a. ZARGARI, Ghodratollah); DOB 1944; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • ZHOU, Carol; DOB 30 Oct 1982; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions (individual) [NPWMD] [IFSR].

The following entities have been added to OFAC's SDN List:

  • COSAILING BUSINESS TRADING COMPANY LIMITED, 2808 Number 1 Building, 98 Nanjing Road, Shinan District, Qingdao, China; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • EAST STAR COMPANY (a.k.a. SATEREH SHARGH MOBIN CO.; a.k.a. SATEREH SHARGH SAMIN CO., LTD.; a.k.a. SETAREH SHARGH CO.), Unit 5, Third Floor, 15th Street, Bokharest Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • ERVIN DANESH ARYAN COMPANY (a.k.a. ERVIN DANESH), 5th Floor, No. 78, Forsat Shirazi Street, North Kargar Street, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • MAHER TRADING AND CONSTRUCTION COMPANY (a.k.a. MAHER TRADING AND ENGINEERING; a.k.a. "MAHER COMPANY"), Concord building, 7th floor, Verdan, Beirut, Lebanon; Harik Harik, on the street near al-Husnayn Mosque, Malik bin Qazzam, 5th floor, Beirut, Lebanon; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • MIRAGE FOR ENGINEERING AND TRADING (a.k.a. "MIRAGE FOR ENGINEERING"), Kalim Bechara Building, 2nd floor, Trabulsi Street, Badaro, Beirut, Lebanon; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • MIRAGE FOR WASTE MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES SARL, PO Box 113/6655, Msieleh Main Road, Rabiyeh Building, 2nd floor, Msieheh, Lebanon; Website www.miragewm.com; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • MKS INTERNATIONAL CO. LTD. (a.k.a. MKS INTERNATIONAL; a.k.a. MKS INTERNATIONAL GROUP), Office No 4, Babataher Street, Dr Fatemi Avenue, Tehran, Iran; PO BOX 14155-4618, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • NINGBO NEW CENTURY IMPORT AND EXPORT COMPANY, LTD. (a.k.a. NEW CENTURY IMPORT AND EXPORT CO. LTD), 5 Hongtang South Road, Jiangbei, Ningbo 315033, China; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • OFOG SABZE DARYA COMPANY, Unit Seven, Fourth Floor, Number 18, 15th Street, Khaled Eslamboli Street, Beheshti Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • REEM PHARMACEUTICAL (a.k.a. REEM PHARMACEUTICAL, LLC; a.k.a. REEM PHARMACEUTICAL, S.A.R.L.; a.k.a. REEM PHARMACEUTICAL, SAL), Kalim Bechara Building, 2nd floor, Trabolsi Street, Badaro, Beirut, Lebanon; Website www.reempharma.com; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [SDGT] [IRGC] [IFSR].
  • ROYAL PEARL GENERAL T.R.D. (a.k.a. ROYAL PEARL CHEMICAL; a.k.a. ROYAL PEARLS; a.k.a. ROYAL PEARLS GENERAL TRADING), PO Box 74382, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Office No. 8, Near Regal International, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai 74382, United Arab Emirates; Website http://ift.tt/2l3s99k; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].
  • ZIST TAJHIZ POOYESH COMPANY (a.k.a. POOYESH ENVIRONMENTAL INSTRUMENTS; a.k.a. ZIEST TAJHIEZ POOYESH), 16, Afshar Alley, Fajr Street, Motahari Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Website www.pooyeshenviro.ir; Additional Sanctions Information – Subject to Secondary Sanctions [NPWMD] [IFSR].

The following changes have been made to OFAC's SDN List:

  • DODIK, Milorad, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina; DOB 12 Mar 1959; Gender Male (individual) [BALKANS]. -to- DODIK, Milorad, Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina; DOB 12 Mar 1959; Gender Male (individual) [BALKANS].

Ahead of the announcement, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said, "Iran unmoved by threats as we derive security from our people." He added later: "We will never use our weapons against anyone, except in self-defense."

 

Iran has responded…

Iran will bar the American wrestling team from a major international meet this month in response to President Trump’s order severely limiting travel from several Muslim-majority countries, including Iran.

 

Bahram Qasemi, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, announced the ban Friday morning, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

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Macy’s Surges On Hudson’s Bay Takeover Report; Would Add To Portfolio Including Saks And Lord & Taylor

With Macy’s making the headlines in the past few days on speculation it was shopping itself for a potential buyer, a thesis first laid out by David Einhorn one year ago, moments ago the WSJ reported that Hudson’s Bay, the Canadian owner of Saks and Lord and Taylor, has made a takeover approach for the landmark retailer, sending the shares of both companies surging, and tripping a circuit breaker for M, which was lst up just shy of 5%.

The likely catalyst for the sale is that Macy’s veteran CEO, Terry Lundgren, announced last June he would be stepping down later this year.

As the Post recently reported,  Lundgren is trying to avoid an ugly board shakeup that could tarnish his 13-year legacy and turn the largest US department store into a battleground littered with discarded top brass.

Lundgren, who had not planned to cap his tenure with a sale, has recently become open to offers from potential friendly buyers as a proactive measure to head off any attempt to mess with the board, sources familiar with the situation said.  A partner at a private equity firm told The Post that he’d been contacted about a Macy’s sale by a real estate investor — while other industry sources close to the situation say they, too, have had similar discussions.

As the Post further added, “the catalyst is Jeffrey Smith’s Starboard Value, the activist New York hedge fund. Smith is said to be fed up with Macy’s poor performance since he invested in it in July 2015. Macy’s shares are down nearly 60 percent since then. Smith is angling for seats on Macy’s board, according to several sources, who describe the situation as a looming proxy battle in advance of Macy’s annual meeting, which will likely take place in late April or May.”

Then, moments ago, the WSJ’s Dana Mattioli, who has an infamous “deep throat” source on Goldman’s M&A team, confirmed that indeed Hudson’s Bay is preparing to acquire Macy’s, completing a trifecta of US retailers, including Lord and Taylor and Saks, however she cautions that the talks are in the early stages and may not lead to a deal, especially since “complicating a takeover, Macy’s is saddled with about $7.5 billion in debt.“

Some more details from the WSJ:

Hudson’s Bay is an acquisition-hungry owner of marquee names in retail including Lord & Taylor department stores and Saks Fifth Avenue. While its market value is dwarfed by that of Macy’s—$1.8 billion compared with $9.8 billion as of Friday morning—Hudson’s Bay could raise equity and debt against its real estate portfolio, which could be worth $14 billion, one of the people said. It could also bring in a partner.

 

Macy’s has struggled in recent years amid increasing competition from upstarts and as shopping habits change and consumers buy more over the internet. Its stock has fallen more than 50% from the highest level it reached in 2015. In January, Macy’s said it would slash more than 10,000 jobs and detailed plans to close dozens of stores after another weak holiday-sales season. It’s facing mounting investor pressure to turn around its performance and reverse the stock drop. Starboard Value LP took a stake and a board seat and called on Macy’s to hive off its valuable real estate, which the activist investor says is worth more than $20 billion.

It is unclear if Trump would have any particular objection to having America’s northern neighbor own three of the most valuable and well-known retail brands in the US.

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US Factory Orders Are Unchanged In 11 Years

Absent the various seasonal and other) adjustments, non-adjusted (so actual) US Factory Orders in December were almost exactly the same as they were in March 2006 – unchanged in 11 years.

YoY, adjusted factory orders rose 3.6%, the best since July 2014. However, absent the adjustments, real orders continue to paint a very different picture.

The 24-month trend (dark red) is very clear and has historically implied one thing – recession!

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US Services Industry Stabilizes: Firms Warn “Margins Squeeze Acting As A Brake On Employment”

Business activity in the US Services industry accelerated to its fastest since Nov 2015, according to the 'soft' survey data from Markit, but some firms noted that squeezed margins had acted as a brake on employment growth at their business units in January. ISM Services slipped lower with unadjusted new orders tumbling to their lowest since Jan 2016.
 

The Trump Bump appears to have stalled…

 

And unadjusted new orders tumbled…

 

And The ISM Breakdown shows more stagflation…

 

ISM Respondents are mixed but uncertainty is a theme:

"Demand is relatively flat; down about 2 percent from December to January." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)

 

"Strong second half. Exceeded 2016 revenue and earning targets. Q1 [is] looking strong so far. Cautiously optimistic for 2017." (Finance & Insurance)

 

"Current conditions stable. Uncertainty with Trump presidency and how it is going to impact health care." (Health Care & Social Assistance)

 

"The overall outlook from our perspective is that we are seeing an uptick in activities, both in the energy sector and the construction side of our business." (Mining)

 

"Market conditions are good with lower prices on most animal proteins, grains, and dairy prices. Butter still uncertain with increased demand [for] natural fats." (Accommodation & Food Services)

 

"A lot of activity to start the year. Companies reassessing their contracts and looking for savings whenever they can get it." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

 

"The outlook for future business has improved, but there is still a degree of uncertainty regarding how the new administration will execute." (Public Administration)

 

"Continued optimism concerning the business environment in the near term." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

 

"Year-over-year for this period, we are down slightly, but that is primarily due to the mild winter we are experiencing. Outlook for upcoming season is very positive." (Wholesale Trade)

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The US economy has started 2017 on the front foot. Business activity across the economy is growing at the fastest rate for over a year and optimism about the business outlook has risen to the highest for a year and a half.

 

“The January surveys signal annualized GDP growth of approximately 2.5%, setting the scene for a solid first quarter. With January seeing the largest inflow of new business for 18 months, there’s good reason to believe that firms will be even busier in coming months.

 

“Even more encouraging is the ongoing impressive rate of job creation, with the January PMI numbers comparable to around 200,000 jobs being added.

 

“A waning of price pressures takes some heat off the Fed, though the sustained strong output and jobs growth signalled by the surveys will fuel speculation that the next rate hike will be sooner rather than later, with June looking most likely.”

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