UC Berkeley Alumni, Dr. Michael Savage, Compares Berkeley Rioters to Communist Anarchists Pre-Nazi Germany

Having received his doctorate from UC Berkeley in 1978, Dr. Michael Savage offered a unique perspective today on the trajectory the famed college has taken over the subsequent decades since.

Wistfully, he compared the present day cadre of left wing anarchists, known to us as AntiFA, to communist anarchists in Germany, circa 1920s. The response to the agitators then paved the way for Hitler’s brown shirts. The rest, as you know, is history.

But, have we learned from history, posited an inquisitive Savage? For every action is a counter-reaction and so forth. Hence, law and order is the only tonic to quell the present day disorder, fomented and encouraged by democratic politicians, carefully cultivated and organized by left wing groups for the explicit purposes of strong arming those who do not fit into the zeitgeist of their political ideals.

“This was the start of the free speech movement back in the 1960s. Now we complete the arc, from free speech to dead speech.’

Dr. M. Savage, Feb. 2nd, 2017

‘Tis a slippery slope. Behold a momentous monolog by the good Dr.

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U.N. Official Admits Global Warming Agenda Is Really About Destroying Capitalism

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

A shocking statement was made by a United Nations official Christiana Figueres at a news conference in Brussels.

Figueres admitted that the Global Warming conspiracy set by the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, of which she is the executive secretary, has a goal not of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity, but to destroy capitalism. She said very casually:

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.”

She even restated that goal ensuring it was not a mistake:

“This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history.”

I was invited to a major political dinner in Washington with the former Chairman of Temple University since I advised the University with respect to its portfolio. We were seated at one of those round tables with ten people. Because we were invited from a university, they placed us with the heads of the various environmental groups. They assumed they were in friendly company and began speaking freely. Dick Fox, my friend, began to lead them on to get the truth behind their movement. Lo and behold, they too admitted it was not about the environment, but to reduce population growth. Dick then asked them, “Whose grandchild are we trying to prevent from being born? Your’s or mine?

All of these movements seem to have a hidden agenda that the press helps to misrepresent all the time. One must wonder, at what point will the press realize they are destroying their own future?

Investors.com reminds Figueres that the only economic model in the last 150 years that has ever worked at all is capitalism. The evidence is prima facie: From a feudal order that lasted a thousand years, produced zero growth and kept workdays long and lifespans short, the countries that have embraced free-market capitalism have enjoyed a system in which output has increased 70-fold, work days have been halved and lifespans doubled.

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Are CMBS Ghosts of The Past Reviving?

According to Trepp, one of the world’s leading providers of global research and analysis for the securities and investment management industry, the delinquency rate for Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) hit a 14-month high-water mark in December 2016. At 5.23%, the rate of CMBS delinquencies was 20 basis points higher than a month earlier (November 2016).

So what does this mean in terms of what industry watchers might expect in the next year
and beyond? Is this a prelude to the CMBS ghosts of 2007 making a revival?

Since the 2007 crisis, some borrowers have seen respite to their dire situations. With their property values on the rise, and their own financial situations set to improve gradually, they are in a much better position today to re-finance upcoming loans.

According to Trepp, over $54.5B of CMBS conduit loans matured in 2015. By 2018, the researcher forecasts nearly $205.2 of such loans to become due. $87.1 billion of that came due in 2016, while over $105.8 billion is set to mature this year – 2017. When we compare these amounts to what matured in 2014 ($37B) and 2015 ($70B), we can see there is a definite uptrend in delinquencies.That uptrend is forecast to dip in 2018, with $12.8 billion up for re-negotiation that year.

While the fortunate few have managed to make a comeback, for many others things don’t look too good! Barely able to keep up with their payments; and with scant equity created in the property they own, these unfortunates aren’t seeing their property values appreciate either.

For them, as for the general CMBS market, there’s more doom to come!

THE SQUEEZE IS ON

For CMBS loan borrowers who are up for re-financing, things could get even tougher. With the massive volume of debt that’s coming due, and the spectre of 2007 still looming large, many lenders are taking a fresh look at their own lending practices. The ensuing soul-searching is causing lenders to more closely review their regulatory compliance, with many of them now requiring borrowers to meet a higher underwriting standard – that of current income as opposed to projected income.

As a result, some lenders have been forced to close shop and exit the CMBS marketplace, with others preparing to brace a fresh onslaught of defaulters and delinquencies.

BIG NAMES…BIG PAINS

Big names like CA Technologies (formerly Computer Associates) are not immune to the CMBS turmoil’s either. In August 2016, Fitch Rating had tagged CA’s commercial loan for purchase of its former HQ as “high probability” of defaulting. While CA finally did agree to a sale-leaseback arrangement, the loan (which was part of a $4.2 collateral for Goldman Sachs Mortgage Securities), highlights the murky waters of the CMBS business.

Wealth manager UBS was yet another ‘big name’ that has been swept by the tidal wave of bad CMBS loans. Early last year, its $156 million mortgage against its downtown Stamford premises, which it had securitized in association with Lehman Brothers, was put into the hands of a “special servicer” who deals with problem loans.

While these are just a few examples of ‘name brand’ borrowers defaulting on their mortgage commitments, it sets the tone of what we are to expect in 2017 and beyond. According to a report from Kroll Bond Rating Agency, “lending volumes for both insured depositories and non-bank lenders are likely to fall in 2017 and beyond…” The report expects a sharp decline in refinancing volume – from $263B in Q4 2016 to
just under $145B in Q1 of 2017.

And if businesses, homeowners and corporations can’t refinance – then what?

BRACING FOR THE FALL

Industry watchers are concerned about the massive tide of maturities that loom from now till 2018. While the 2018 wave is expected to be less “messy” – largely due to improving real estate values in certain areas, the CMBS market as a whole faces other headwinds.

Though employment rates are improving gradually, large segments of mortgage holders aren’t benefiting from the green shoots in the economy. Add to that the increasing demand by many lenders for lower loan-to-value (LTV ratio) requirements, and toss in potential (impending) interest rate hikes – and we are looking at a recipe for disaster.

Borrowers, whose loans are set to mature shortly, shouldn’t automatically expect that they will get renewed. Lenders, who have such loans on their books, should worry about what course of action to follow if/when their clients default.

In either case, it does seem as though the ghost of the sub-prime past is once again rearing its ugly head. Let’s hope this time everyone involved – lenders, accountants, real estate lawyers, borrowers, regulators – are well prepared and already bracing for the fall!

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Key Events In Washington Today

Courtesy of Bloomberg, here’s a look at scheduled events of interest today in Washington (all times Eastern).

White House

  • Noon: President Trump signs executive orders
  • Trump to Halt Obama Fiduciary Rule, Order Review of Dodd-Frank
  • Trump also attends meetings at White House before departing for West Palm Beach, Fla. in afternoon
  • 12:30pm: Briefing with Press Sec. Sean Spicer

Congress

  • Senate convened 6:30am and cleared bill to repeal an SEC rule forcing oil, gas, mining companies to disclose payments made to foreign governments
  • Senate to vote on motion to invoke cloture on Betsy DeVos’ nomination to lead Education Dept.
  • House convenes at 9am; considers joint resolution to disapprove Bureau of Land Management rule on conservation, waste prevention and production subject to royalties
  • 10am: Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., participates in news conference on President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch; 26 North Fulton Ave. in Baltimore

Budget/Economy

  • 8am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds conference on retirement; 1615 H St. NW

Defense/Foreign Affairs

  • 8:30am: Council on Foreign Relations discusses countering religious extremism; 1777 F St. NW

Energy/Environment

  • 3pm: Woodrow Wilson Center discusses year ahead in environment and energy; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW

Trade

  • 9am: The Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University discusses what President Trump can and cannot do to change trade policy; 1957 E St. NW

Transportation

  • 11am: North American Concrete Alliance holds briefing on infrastructure priorities; 2168 Rayburn

Source: BBG

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What Trump’s Travel Ban Told the Market

Trump’s Travel Ban

Last Friday President Trump issued Executive Order 13769 which prohibited the entry of certain foreign residents from several different countries. The countries restricted by Trump’s travel ban were Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. The order also suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program for 120 days and entirely suspended refugees entering from Syria. The order was issued to prevent future attacks by foreign nationals in the U.S.

The execution of Trump’s travel ban was very poor. There was a significant amount of confusion and at first the Department of Homeland Security was detaining green card holders. Green card holders are legal residents who have already undergone a significant amount of vetting. The confusion and hasty implementation added to complaints from the left which said that the travel ban was motivated by Islamophobia. This is despite the fact that the Obama administration had already labeled these nations as countries of concern.

The markets reacted negatively to the news of the Trump’s travel ban. After two and a half months of positive reactions to Trump’s election the travel ban seems to be a tipping point. The travel ban will not have an impact on the performance of the economy or any of its constituents. Despite this fact the market reacted negatively.

Some of the negative performance is due fears that Trump’s next move will be to restrict worker visa’s. This caused technology companies to decline during the week. This type of restriction would mean added cost for U.S. based companies who rely on cheaper, temporary H-1B labor. Unfortunately, the mainstream media would like to you believe that Trump is preventing the next Sergey Brin from coming to the U.S. to start the next Silicon Valley Unicorn. This is not what is really happening.

Negative Short Term Volatility

The most important impact of President Trump’s actions is the precedent that he has created. The actions of last Friday show how quickly and hastily the Trump administration makes decisions. We highlighted this risk in our special Inauguration Article. While this may be a positive long term it is likely to increase uncertainty in the short term. Healthcare investors will have a hard time evaluating businesses knowing that the Trump can issue a ground-shaking executive order at any moment. Utility companies will not be able to effectively plan capital investments because the future is unclear. Uncertainty for the economy and markets is not good and usually translates into poor investing returns.

Today the press is reporting that Trump will be issuing an executive order to dismantle Dodd-Frank. The order will reduce the regulatory costs and burden that have been building for several years. This will have a positive impact on the financial industry today. This action again proves that President Trumps term will be volatile over the short term but likely positive long term. We shall wait and what other executive orders the Trump administration has in store for us this weekend.

Article originally posted at Boom Bust Market.

 

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Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

With just over half an hour left until today’s jobs report, here are the key Jan. payroll report metrics and expectations that traders and algos will be focusing on (for a long preview please see here):

  • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) M/M Exp. 175K (Prey. 156K, Nov. 178K)
  • Unemployment Rate (Jan) M/M Exp. 4.70% (Prey. 4.70%, Nov. 4.60%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (Jan) M/M Exp. 0.30% (Prey. 0.40%, Nov. -0.10%)

The current market consensus for today is 175k although the range between economists is a fairly lofty 140k to 238k. Pointing to a potential upside surprise, recall that Wednesday’s ADP came in at a much better than expected 246k while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing also bounced 3.3pts to 56.1, so the whisper number is notably higher than the where the consensus, with some expecting a number above 200.

As always keep an eye on the other components of the report too. The market expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.7% and average weekly earnings to rise +0.3% mom.

To us, the most importants item will be average average weekly – not hourly – earnings for production and non-supervisory workers, as well as hours worked for the group: in recent reports there has been a substantial decline in this series not captured in the main headlines.

Some of the more notable NFP forecasts of note, by bank:

  • High Frequency Economics 210K
  • Moody’s 205k
  • Nomura 205k
  • Goldman Sachs 200k
  • Comerica 190K
  • SEB 175k
  • Barclays 175k
  • Consensus 175k
  • Credit Agricole 175k
  • CIBC 175k
  • BofAML 160k
  • Deutsche Bank 150k

As RanSquawk reminds us, last month the NFP reported an increase of 156k jobs, lower than the expected historically substantial figure in December, following an increase in part time jobs through the holiday period. Wednesday saw the FOMC’s first rate decision of the year where, as expected, rates were kept on hold at 0.50%-0.75%. Noticeably recent rhetoric from the Fed, on job growth has taken a back seat with market focus now on less bullish expectations of inflation.

The Fed’s lowered concern to US jobs is set to result in a possibly cleaner move, with investors looking at the report its self as an indicator to US growth. Last month’s report was largely in line, with no shock figures and December’s average hourly earnings back as a positive figure, this has seemingly proved that November’s -0.10% figure was indeed an anomaly, yet still seen slowing from December.

Recent data has been under the microscope; noticeably this week’s ADP private payrolls saw a staggering 246K increase in jobs. Furthermore, growth was seen from the month’s US ISM manufacturing PMI, revealing increased employment in the manufacturing sector and with the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims showing a four-decade low (248K) with all the job figures seen this month implying a strong report.

Market Reaction

As ever with the NFP release, the headline is likely to garner much of the initial focus with algorithms and fast money moves jumping on any large discrepancies. An overwhelming strong report will strengthen the USD, which has seen some slowdown to the bullish pressure, with the DXY back below the 100.00 handle. With many forecasts between two and three hikes for the year and all talk in regards to inflation, equity markets could once again see 2016’s choppy trade as a weak report could highlight the inflation slack, resulting in even more of a reason for the Fed to resist three hikes.

Gold and treasury markets are likely to act in tandem with classic price action in regards to the NFP to be evident in flight to safety asset classes, with a strong report set to cause some risk on sentiment resulting in weakness in both gold and treasury markets. Participants are likely to keep an eye on fixed income markets, with tight trading ranges evident across the curve throughout December and January – with any discrepancy in either direction could result in some traction.

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Frontrunning: February 3

  • Trump Plans to Undo Dodd-Frank, Fiduciary Rule (WSJ)
  •  CEOs to meet with Trump amid tensions (Reuters)
  • Trump’s CEO Brain Trust Meets Amid Widening Rifts (BBG)
  • Business coalition supports border tax (Reuters)
  • Nordstrom winds down relationship with Ivanka Trump brand (Reuters)
  • Tillerson Calms Foreign Allies’ Nerves on First Day as Diplomat (BBG)
  • Trump’s Bluntness Unsettles World Leaders (WSJ)
  • The One Russian Linking Putin, Erdogan and Trump (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan Whipsaws Markets in Tussle Over Yield Control (BBG)
  • China Tightens Monetary Policy by Raising Money Market Rates (BBG)
  • U.K. Services Growth Cools as Costs Dominate Firms’ Concerns (BBG)
  • Spain’s Banco Popular posts 3.5 bln euros loss on property charges (Reuters)
  • Amazon Projects Spending That Concerns Investors (BBG)
  • Italy’s Renzi signals willingness to ditch push for early vote (Reuters)
  • Toronto Home Prices Jump 22% as Buyers Contend With Tight Supply (BBG)
  • May Seeks to Ride Brexit Wave Targeting Historic By-Election Win (BBG)
  • ‘Superstar’ Companies Are Eating Into Workers’ Wealth, Study Finds (BBG)
  • Vanity Fair, New Yorker back out of White House Correspondents’ Association events (The Hill)
  • Billionaire Magnier Said to Purchase $56 Million U.K. Estate (BBG)
  • Mexico Has Its Own Fiery Populist. Trump May Put Him in Power (BBG)
  • Trump White House Set to Impose Fresh Sanctions on Iran (WSJ)
  • Senate advances DeVos’s nomination, setting her up for final vote (The Hill)
  • State Lawmakers Are Cracking Down on Protesters (BBG)
  • Snap IPO Will Mint Fortunes for Founders, Two Big Investors (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– The Trump administration is set to impose fresh sanctions on dozens of Iranian entities for their alleged role in missile development and terrorism, in a move likely to escalate U.S. tensions with Tehran, according to people close to the deliberations. http://on.wsj.com/2knPJxg

– President Donald Trump’s administration said on Thursday night that the growth of Israeli settlements “may not be helpful” in achieving a goal of peace in the Middle East, an abrupt shift that signals a potentially tougher stance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. http://on.wsj.com/2knPNxc

– Snap Inc lifted the veil on its highly anticipated initial public offering, revealing a business that is growing at a torrid clip but that also faces challenges keeping users engaged, attracting new ones – and justifying a valuation that could reach $25 billion. http://on.wsj.com/2knQRBi

– President Donald Trump vowed on Thursday to repeal a ban on churches engaging in political campaigning, while his administration also was exploring other steps to expand religious rights, including increased protection for individuals, organizations and employers acting on their faith. http://on.wsj.com/2knTfrx

– Uber Technologies Inc chief executive Travis Kalanick said he is stepping down from President Donald Trump’s economic advisory council, saying that his participation has been misunderstood as an endorsement of the new administration’s policies. http://on.wsj.com/2knJwkU

– Amazon.com Inc on Thursday said fourth-quarter profit jumped 55 percent to $749 million, topping the company’s own guidance. http://on.wsj.com/2knK0b5

– A dispute over creative control led Ralph Lauren Corp Chief Executive Stefan Larsson to leave the struggling luxury fashion brand after less than two years at the helm. http://on.wsj.com/2knKo9b

 

FT

* Snap Inc, owner of popular messaging service Snapchat, made many of its financial details public for the first time on Thursday, as it prepared to raise up to $3 billion in an initial public offering in New York that is expected to come in March.

* Uber Technologies Inc Chief Executive Officer Travis Kalanick, facing criticism from immigration advocates for serving on President Donald Trump’s business advisory group, quit the group on Thursday, the company said.

* The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think tank, said that the United Kingdom needs more reforms to tackle “costly, inefficient and unfair” differences in the way the self-employed, owner-managers and employees are taxed.

 

NYT

– Uber CEO Travis Kalanick plans to step down from the president’s council, after internal pressure from employees and a social media backlash. http://nyti.ms/2jJwrRe

– Stephen A. Feinberg, founder of Cerberus Capital Management, is in discussions to join the Trump administration, the firm disclosed on Thursday. http://nyti.ms/2jJAfBT

– Republicans on Thursday took one of their first steps to officially dismantle Obama-era environmental regulations by easing restrictions on coal mining, bolstering an industry that President Trump has made a symbol of America’s neglected heartland. http://nyti.ms/2jJyHYy

– Department store operator Nordstrom Inc said it would put the brakes on its relationship with Ivanka Trump and it removed her brand from a list on its site. http://nyti.ms/2jJxErO

– John Cryan, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, apologized in especially contrite terms on Thursday for the long list of misdeeds that tarnished the German lender’s reputation and cost it billions of euros in fines and settlements, adding that bonuses of top managers would be cut. http://nyti.ms/2jJyKUm

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Kew Media Group Inc is set to acquire a broad portfolio of 10 companies that own, produce and distribute film, television and other programming for $104.1 million. https://tgam.ca/2k8ETNt

** Toronto and its surrounding municipalities are doubling down on efforts to entice foreign investment, with a new agency called Toronto Global designed to pull new business and money into the region. https://tgam.ca/2jEZNVM

NATIONAL POST

** A former editor with Vice Media used the Canadian headquarters of the youth-focused publishing empire as a recruiting ground to draw young journalists and artists into a transnational cocaine-smuggling ring, according to allegations by current and former Vice employees who spoke to the National Post. http://bit.ly/2l1PYNV

** Six-month-old NewLeaf Travel Co Inc will drop flights to two more cities this summer, bringing its total number of destinations down to five while increasing frequency on its remaining routes. http://bit.ly/2k8ONhV

 

 

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Movie Review: War on Everyone: New at Reason

WarThe movie begins with a man in white-face makeup—a mime—running down a road. Some ways behind him, but catching up fast, is a car with two plain-clothes detectives in it, Terry Monroe (Alexander Skarsgård) and Bob Bolaño (Michael Peña). As the cops bear down on their quarry, Bob turns to Terry and says, “You know, I always wondered: if you hit a mime, does he make a sound?”

And bang, zoom—we’re off. War on Everyone, the latest film by Irish writer-director John Michael McDonagh (The Guard), is a buddy-cop movie that’s been dropped on its head. The picture motors along on a rush of reprehensible trash talk—rude cracks about the Nation of Islam and the heartbreak of dyslexia (“It used to be called stupidity,” Bob says), and insensitive observations about drag queens and even a callous aside about the pugilistic abilities of Stephen Hawking. A table full of Japanese businessmen doesn’t escape unscathed, either, writes Kurt Loder.

View this article.

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Trump To Sign Executive Orders Scaling Back Financial Regulation

On Friday, President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive action to scale back the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law, in a sweeping plan to dismantle much of the regulatory system put in place after the financial crisis. The order won’t have any immediate impact. But it directs the Treasury secretary to consult with members of different regulatory agencies and the Financial Stability Oversight Council and report back on potential changes. 

“There are quite a few things that we could do on Dodd-Frank … that we think will have fairly immediate and dramatic impact,” the official said, including personnel changes at regulatory agencies and additional executive orders.

That likely includes a review of the CFPB, which vastly expanded regulators’ ability to police consumer products — from mortgages to credit cards to student loans. Trump administration officials, like other critics, argue Dodd-Frank did not achieve what it set out to do and portray it as an example of massive government over-reach.

Trump will also sign a presidential memorandum Friday that instructs the Labor Department to delay implementing the so-called “fiduciary rule” – an Obama-era rule that requires financial professionals who charge commissions to put their clients’ best interests first when giving advice on retirement investments. The “fiduciary rule” was aimed at blocking financial advisers from steering clients toward investments with higher commissions and fees that can eat away at retirement savings.

The retirement advice rule was issued by the Obama administration and was set to take effect in April. It has been staunchly opposed by the financial services industry, who argue the rule limits retirees’ investment choices by forcing asset managers to steer them to the lowest-risk options. Opponents of the rule argued that the rule would result in high costs that will ultimately make small accounts unprofitable. While some lawsuits were filed against the rule, companies like Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley had announced plans to cooperate with the rule. The Labor Department had estimated that it could cost firms as much as $31 billion over the next decade to comply.

“Americans are going to have better choices and Americans are going to have better products because we’re not going to burden the banks with literally hundreds of billions of dollars of regulatory costs every year,” White House National Economic Council Director, and former Goldman president, Gary Cohn said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “The banks are going to be able to price product more efficiently and more effectively to consumers.”

A senior White House official outlined the measures in a background briefing with reporters Thursday. “We think that they have exceeded their authority with this rule and we think this is something that is completely overreaching,” the official told reporters at a briefing on Thursday.

Trump pledged during the campaign to repeal and replace the law, which also created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “Dodd-Frank is a disaster,” Trump said earlier this week during a meeting with small business owners. “We’re going to be doing a big number on Dodd-Frank.”

Cohn said the actions are intended to pave the way for additional orders that would affect the postcrisis Financial Stability Oversight Council, the mechanism for winding down a giant faltering financial company, and the way the government supervises big financial firms that aren’t traditional banks, often referred to as systemically important financial institutions.

More from the WSJ:

Trump blamed the political establishment and Wall Street banks for leaving behind many Americans and vowed to break up both. Those promises have already been called into question as he has filled his administration with members of Congress and Wall Street executives, including Mr. Cohn, who retired as president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to join the Trump administration.

 

Adding to the potentially difficult optics for Mr. Trump, he will sign the actions on the same day he meets with a group of business executives, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon and BlackRock Inc. CEO Laurence Fink. Asked about the potential political pushback because of his Wall Street past, Mr. Cohn said the administration’s goal of deregulating financial markets “has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs.”

 

“It has nothing to do with J.P. Morgan,” he said. “It has nothing to do with Citigroup. It has nothing to do with Bank of America. It has to do with being a player in a global market where we should, could and will have a dominant position as long as we don’t regulate ourselves out of that.”

The changes Cohn described are sure to face a fight from consumer groups and Democrats, who say postcrisis regulations are protecting average borrowers and investors from abusive practices, while making the financial system more resilient and bailouts less likely.

This path also may create political problems for Mr. Trump, whose campaign was successful in swaths of the Midwest where homeowners were hit hardest by the housing crash sparked by the financial crisis.

Meanwhile, asked about the potential political pushback because of his Wall Street past, in his WSJ interview Cohn said the administration’s goal of deregulating financial markets “has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs.”

“It has nothing to do with J.P. Morgan,” he said. “It has nothing to do with Citigroup. It has nothing to do with Bank of America. It has to do with being a player in a global market where we should, could and will have a dominant position as long as we don’t regulate ourselves out of that.” Cohn said existing regulations put in place by Dodd-Frank are so sweeping that it is too hard for banks to lend, and consumers’ choice of financial products is too limited.

Democrats and consumer groups have pushed for tighter controls on banks and other lenders, particularly after the subprime mortgage crisis that helped fuel the global financial crisis. But Cohn said that many of the postcrisis rules haven’t solved the problems they were supposed to be addressing. He said, for example, that there still isn’t a solid process to safely wind down the collapse of a giant faltering financial company or to ensure that those firms have access to short-term liquidity.

“I’m not sitting here saying we want to go back to the good old days,” Cohn said. “We have the best, most highly capitalized banks in the world, and we should use that to our competitive advantage,” he added. “But on the flip side, we also have the most highly regulated, overburdened banks in the world.”

Cohn also laid out a road map for how the Trump administration plans to target new financial rules. He said the Treasury Department would lead an effort to overhaul mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were put into government conservatorship after the crisis. He also said that the White House wouldn’t need a change in the law to redirect the mission of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, created by the 2010 law and which governs things like mortgage and credit-card rules. (Please see related article on B10.)

He suggested the White House could influence the mission of the bureau, set up as an independent agency, by putting a new person at its helm to replace Richard Cordray, the agency’s director. Asked about potential changes at the agency, he said, “Personnel is policy.”

* * *

Trump said repeatedly during the presidential campaign that the Dodd-Frank overhaul law was preventing banks from lending, which he said made it harder for consumers to access credit and get the economy to grow. Financial analysts have had mixed views on this assessment. Some believe that low demand from consumers has hurt the ability of banks to lend, and low interest rates have hurt the returns banks make on these loans. But smaller banks have said they are dealing with a crush of new regulations spurred by Dodd-Frank, something regulators have struggled to address.

Cohn didn’t specify how all of these regulations should be rewritten, but he said that financial markets have made their own corrections and that the environment that fueled the financial crisis no longer existed. He said, for example, that even if mortgage restrictions are rolled back, it doesn’t mean that there would be another boom in the subprime lending market. That is because, he said, those loans can’t be securitized and sold like they were before the financial crisis because the market for those products isn’t the same.

“We don’t want to do it an unregulated way,” he said. “We want to do it in a smart, regulated way.”

Translation: we want our bubble, we want to be able to securitize, package and sell it, we want to offload risky exposure to momentum-chasing retail investors and, potentially, widows and orphans.

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In Tweetstorm, Trump Lashes Out At Iran And “Paid Protesters”, Mocks Arnie, Thanks Australia PM

In an early tweetstorm, President Trump fired off a volley of five (so far) tweets early on Friday morning, touching on all the key salient newsitems over the past 24 hours, including the ongoing feud with Schwarzenegger, the Australia PM phone call, the imminent round of Iranian sanctions, his upcoming meeting with business leaders and last but not least, the “professional anarchists” who foiled a speech by Milo Yiannopoulos at UC Berkeley. The good news for traders is that none of them appear to be particularly market moving or focusing on any specific company or part of the market.

The tweets in order as they came in:

Yes, Arnold Schwarzenegger did a really bad job as Governor of California and even worse on the Apprentice…but at least he tried hard!

Iran is playing with fire – they don’t appreciate how “kind” President Obama was to them. Not me!

Thank you to Prime Minister of Australia for telling the truth about our very civil conversation that FAKE NEWS media lied about. Very nice!

Meeting with biggest business leaders this morning. Good jobs are coming back to U.S., health care and tax bills are being crafted NOW!

Professional anarchists, thugs and paid protesters are proving the point of the millions of people who voted to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

* * *

Yesterday we showed a histogram of Trump’s various tweeting hours, however it now appears that the 6-7am block will need to be revised, as it is rapidly becoming Trump’s favorite tweeting hour.

 

via http://ift.tt/2k3fMsI Tyler Durden